Investor's Edge with Gary Kaltbaum - The Oil Spike [07.23.2026]

Episode Date: July 23, 2026

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Investor's Edge with Gary Coltbaum. Straight talk about you and your money. Now from the BizTalk Studios, here is Gary Coltbaum. And welcome once again to Investors Edge. I'm Gary Coltbaum, your host. Hey, thanks for being with us today. Glad you're here, ladies and gentlemen. Happy that you are listening.

It's, you know, 23 is my lucky number. Today's the 23rd or July. Thursday, but really nothing lucky in the markets today when it comes to you and your money and all that fun stuff. We'll get into it in case you don't know. This is serious talk on everything that affects you, the markets, the economy, your job, your industry, war, oil prices, bond yields, mortgages, ridiculous amounts of debt, and spending off of that debt

for artificial intelligence stuff, blowups, big gaps to the upside, earning season, and all that crap. And miscalculations. and in case you do not get this radio show in your city, this very important radio show. We posted at garyk.com. We'll also post it on our X feed. If you don't follow us on X, you should. Just put our name in. If you like to email us, just be nice. Be respectful. We'll be respectful right back.

As long as you don't like Hamas and Al-Qaeda and a racist or rob the bank today. so let's start off with something we have been saying to you for a while, for quite a while. And this is not a rip, this is not a rub, this is not a put-down, it is a fact. The administration has completely miscalculated everything. That's not military on our end. they completely miscalculated militarily on their end, Iran, as well as what kind of control there is. Now, unfortunately, our president, and this is a rip, lies all the time. he's one of these people that if he was live on TV and it was raining on him would say it's sunny out and say it with passion.

He keeps telling us we're in control, we're winning as of last night. We're in control. We're winning. Iran is decimated. I saw a couple of people in the administration asked today, if, You obliterated their nuclear, like the president said. Why are we doing this? Because remember, the president said we obliterated their nuclear.

That was a lie. We're winning. Well, define winning. 18 service members dead. We're here and now 500 injured. Some of them very much injured. A lot of our army bases in the Middle East have been. blown to smithereens?

Yes, because we got a big military, we blown them to smithereens in many things, but he keeps saying that they have nothing left. Yet every day they are firing rockets across the strait and into other Middle East countries. So which is it? But back on point, just miscalculations

and let me be clear anybody can miscalculate this is not easy but stop BSing about it and then change so what's happened oil was up another six bucks today it was higher

and because of that yields were up and we hit a new yearly high on yields and you know what happens when oil spikes and yield spike well you get a little problem with the markets of course. And of course, that also affects you. If nothing changes in about a week to 10 days,

oh boy, oh boy, is the price at the pump going to be much higher? And products made with petroleum will end up being higher too, if nothing changes. Now, of course, if overnight there's a ceasefire and all of a sudden we're talking again, well, we're going to walk in tomorrow and oil prices will be down 10 bucks, maybe even, more and the market will gap up five, six hundred points, if not more. Unfortunately, that's what we're dealing with at this moment, but there's a few other tidbits that we've got to deal with. Some of the things we have been absolutely warning you about, almost daily, if not daily. And that has to do with this whole artificial intelligence

debt, spending, and what we call circular financing, where a big company gives you, says they invest with you billions of dollars and you take that money and buy their products and they book it as revenue. That's going on. That's absolutely going on. And we'll talk about a few names because, because a couple of big names blew up on their earnings reports and affected others. They're called hyper-scalers, the spenders, the people that are spending a craplode, and we mean a craplode of money on the artificial intelligence game or business, for lack of a better word. and you can all go search what exactly they're looking to do and all that. We're talking about Amazon, Google, Microsoft, meta, whoever else.

And it's worrisome. We have said to you, if things go awry, it is going to be because of the credit part all this, the amount of debt for all this, the ability to fund that debt for all this. And there is something called CDs, not certificate of deposits. We call them credits, credits. And all we can tell you right now, the credit default swaps. It's an insurance contract against a borrower defaulting on a loan or a bond. The cost at this juncture, the price, the spreads.

I don't know if the word is exploding, but they are really going on. up every day as investors are more loathe on a daily basis to fund memory chip purchases any longer and the question is are we getting to some point with the market gives a crap it's one hell of a question to ask and as you know we believe in markets we think we think we think they're smart, especially when we see extremes. We have been highlighting Oracle and just saying, what the hell's going on here? How is Oracle gone from 345 to 120?

And 50% in the last two or three months. And the price of their bonds, look out. It's debt. It's worry about the debt. It's all of the above. And the market may be getting convinced. Well, let me put it best. A lot of these things have already been bludgeoned.

So we'll give you out the final numbers, the earnings, and much more. On this, the one only Investor's Edge. Hi, I'm Gary Kalbaum, hosted a nationally syndicated radio show Investors Edge. We're not just handsome radio people. We manage investors' money for a living, specializing in fee-based discretionary money management. No big commissions, just a fee on the assets that's managed. We also provide a full range of personalized services,

including retirement planning, fixed income, and educational needs, all to assist you in achieving your financial goals. Understanding not all individuals have the same needs, we'll carefully evaluate your personal goals to determine a proper investment strategy. If your current approach to investing is not getting you to where you would like to be, call us to make an appointment for a complementary portfolio review. The number to call is 888-4-2-5-59. That's 8-8-8-5-9.

That's 888-4-22-5-5-9. Investment Advisory Services offered through call-bomb capital management. It's time to switch on the integrator units and get the brain cells working. You're listening to Hey, this promises to be fun. Investors Edge. The last bastion of quality programming. With Gary Cult Bomb.

It doesn't get better than this. Okay. So, and by the way, before we get emails, we do not have TDS. We do not have Trump derangement syndrome. We have truth and facts derangement syndrome. And most importantly, LDS, logic derangement syndrome. We want him to succeed.

We stand side by side, but as an American voter, we've got to call out what needs to be called out. And those are the facts on the ground and whether we're being snow-jobbed by the man running the country, like we had four years of the last guy. And in plain sight, to continue to be told, everything's great, they've been calling me every day, they want a deal, is just plain bull crap. Let's move on. As I speak, the market's closing, in no particular order.

Alphabet, used to be known as Google. We have no idea why they changed the name. Down 7% today. Now, 7% for a small cap on a bad day is not a big deal, but 7% on a company with a market cap of $4 trillion matters. Down $24 in change. Volume is almost three times the norm? Or is two?

Yeah, almost three. It is completely broken down below the 200-day moving average. it broke the lows that it's set in June. They had reported earnings. By the way, it had showed big earnings, but a big part of that was the money they're making in Anthropic that is going to try and come public soon, but it may be tough going because of what's happened with SpaceX.

Those SpaceX up today. The story behind Google, Alphabet, Numbers didn't look so bad, but as I read it, because of debt, got some negative cash flow going on, and they announced the increase in spending. And in case you don't know, and these companies are called hyperscalers, that's the name they were given. in case you don't know, the worry is about all this spend. In case you don't know, Google is going to raise $80 billion. I'm not even sure if they've done it yet to pay for a bunch of things. They're going into more debt.

And the stock got trashed today. And of course, that's not going to help, right? And in case you don't know, it's now in the Dow. That stock is in the Dow. And in case you don't know, it accounted today for about 160 Dow points to the negative. Tesla. Well, they just missed by a mile. Earnings were down 18% year over year.

You ready for this? They sold more cars but made less money. Margin squeeze. I was taught many years ago. Expanding margins are bullish. Contracting margins are bearish. So Tesla has broken down today $54.14.5% on heavy volume. It has broken the April lows and is back into the trading range all the way back last September.

And is now way up. The high was at around 500. It closed at 319 today. Well, that didn't help today. And I did not listen to the conference call. I was told by a couple of people that Elon was less than stellar on the call, but I wasn't on it. That didn't help today. Tesla is not in the Dow.

But the worry about the spend, who else is in the Dow with that? Oh, Amazon. Well, Amazon is not reported yet, but was down 11 bucks today. 4.6%. Oh, that's about 72 Dow points. And that dropped on a little extra volume. But what else in the Dow? Oh, Microsoft dropped almost $9 today, only 2.5%.

but Microsoft is in that very, very poor, very poor software group. That just absolutely sucks. Very poor software group. In fact, Microsoft miserably failed at the 50-day moving average, just like Salesforce.com did, Adobe, which has been dead meat, and SAP, which does report, I believe today after the close,

I don't see if they reported it and they haven't. And that's at new yearly lows, just so you know. So we got some roughen up here, some bad reaction to earnings. will tell you after the close. Intel's reporting, SAP, symbol fix, something we've been watching closely. It's artificial intelligence-related.

Intel stock recently, let's see, dropped from 142 closed today at 100, and we'll see what they report. Hopefully it's decent. We shall see. All these stocks are very oversold, so if they bounce, I would not be surprised. But just a lot of yuck. We mentioned the spenders, the receivers of the spend, were better today. My artificial intelligence screen was mostly green, though, way off the highs.

the main names that really move off of spend, Micron, was up today, 30 bucks. I think it was up 50, up next. We'll have Intel, the rest, whatever else. This is the one only Investor's Edge. They're listening to America is talking. Investors Edge. He's got to be pleased with that. The crowd is just on its feet here.

He's a Cinderella boy. With Gary Colbomb. It comes highly recommended. You're going to feel better if you talk to him. So, Mike Ron was up 30. Is up $9 in the aftermarket because that's what they do here. Sandisk was up 90 today, but only finished up 11, but is up $20 in the aftermarket. Seagate, including aftermarket, is up 8 today.

Western Digital's up a few. while the Dow is down 500 today, the NASDAQ 550 and the NASDAQ 100, 543. So rough day. But a lot of damage that was done, Google, Microsoft, Tesla, Amazon, Apple was down 5, and we said to you that we thought Apple, there was this component in Apple, of parking, and that may have been right, not 100% true. on that, but it's certainly been pulling back. So Intel, which just dropped from 142 to 100, is up to 109 in the aftermarket,

108, 808.80. And guess what? Helping the aftermarket. The QQQ is up, uh, yeah, not that much. A few tenths of one percent. But certainly better. than what we saw today. And of course, we'll see what they have to say.

It looks like they beat and is helping some things out. AMD today was down 13 and is now back to flat. So that's up 13 bucks in the aftermarket a couple of percent. Now, I don't know why an Intel helps so much

beats the heck out of me. ASML, I got up 20 bucks in the aftermarket, applied materials, finished up nine. I got it up $10 in the aftermarket. So they're bouncing some things here. I don't know if Intel said anything important, but certainly very rough day, and a bounce can happen at any time.

I am noticing fix, maybe down a bunch. I'm going to have to double check that out. It's very tough. right now with this moving oil and this moving yields. I have a personal hope that we do not escalate. The president's threatening to escalate more than the original. Now, you know this is fact. He is threatened 47 different times and never followed through.

I'm hoping there's a 48. I'm hoping there's a 48. I'm not so sure that would be good news. You catching my drift? Iran also was doing something at the Red Sea also. And there's also a place. You haven't heard of this place. The Suez Canal.

We'll see. Again, miscalculations. Unfortunate. Unfortunately. So with oil prices going up like they did in yields, retail had a very rough day. Travel had a very rough day. Consumer-oriented had a very rough day. Advanced declines were pitiful, up-down volume was pitiful.

New highs on the New York showing 50, new yearly lows 290, new highs on the NASDAQ 69, new lows 306. That's yearly. Keep in mind those new yearly highs are not exactly correct because some non-operating on there, so it's a little bit less. I don't know what else to tell you. Oil stocks weren't up that much. We had some big movers on the upside. Lockheed Martin up 54 on their numbers.

Thermoelectron up 45 United Rentals, the one we talk about very often, up 104. They blew away Wall Street estimates. The Rails had a good day, but they were off their highs. Union Pacific, Norfolk, Southern, and CSX off of their earnings. The rails have been pretty much on the strong side, may I state for the record. And we'll see what tomorrow brings. Whatever Intel said has helped out. I've got AMD strong, micron strong, sand is strong, couple others.

equipment makers strong in the aftermarket and they all came in off their highs today maybe that'll help I don't know why Intel would be the biggest the helps but I'm not gonna argue with it the place you give your drug your blood excuse me Quest Diagnostics up 8% today in fact I just gave my blood there a few weeks ago when the nurse was I guess they called nurses right It didn't feel a thing and I've had some bad ones. Anything else sticking out well the housing related not good today because of yields. We're close to seven may be heading towards seven percent mortgages again if oil prices

if that big word that's only two letters if if if Yikes. So we'll see what the president decides. It seems like we're into whatever the president decides. We have 50% tariffs on Canada now. Who knows what's next. I was reading today this talk about more sweeping tariffs going forward. I saw one conservative commentator.

You know what they said? What I said. Maybe they're listening to the show. A conservative commentator came out and said, maybe the president should take August off. What have we been saying? This is just too much. Biden was too little.

This guy's too much. That's my opinion. Again, we hope it works out. We really do. Next week, Apple, Amazon, Meta, Microsoft. and a crap load of other names to come out. And we'll see what that brings.

But the big story, front and center, loud and clear, oil prices and yields, and the decision of one man, because I'm not so sure he listens to any of advisors. He was told before this thing with Iran, you may want to think about what they're going to do when he did not listen. Did not listen. Oh, darn well. On TV Friday, I just said to everybody,

watch Oracle. I worry about the credit default swaps and all that crap that's going on. Remember what happened in 0708? You know what blew up? Just that. because of leverage and all that crap. So stay tuned, we're on it.

Hopefully it works out. We try to be optimists here, but we are more realist than optimist. Software front, the worst worsened, the best keep coming down. Not much there. SpaceX finished up $3 today to $118.

The IPO was 135. the opening price of the offering was $150. Got a lot of work to do there. Ladies and gentlemen. And that's a little bit of this and a little bit of that. Ten year yield 4.703 today. 30 year, 5.171. This guarantees two things.

One, mortgage rates are going higher. Two. No way the Fed's lowering rates. Hey, up next, this, that, and the other thing. This is the one only Investor's Edge. You're listening to. What are we waiting for? Well, what are you waiting for?

One, two, ready, go. Action! Investors Edge. With Gary Culper. And welcome once again to Investor's Edge. What a day in tomorrow's going to. to be interesting because Intel's up $11 now in the after market. That's number one. And the semi-equipment is up nicely. AsML closed up, oh, ASML closed up 1 to 1803.

These are real numbers as we speak. It's 1830 right now. These are the equipment. people. Amat closed at 562. I have it at 574. KLAC closed at 218. I got it at 225. Lamb Research. I closed at 320. It's 326. Sandus closed at 1610. It's 1629. Micron closed at 990. It's 997. AMD. one closed at 539 it's 556 wow dang arm closed at 283 it's 293 it actually was down today and now is up 10 in the aftermarket the s o x x closed at 551 it's at 558 and change that's the pretty much mimics the socks the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index. So I guess Intel little bit of fire here, up 12 bucks. That's about 12%.

Good. And we'll see how it plays out. I'm looking at other semis and it looks like just about all of them are up. I have not yet looked at the AI crap. But hey, bad day today. Looks like we may have a good open tomorrow for the air. some things that got sloshed today but I don't think it's gonna fix up Tesla I don't think it's gonna fix up Google I'm looking to see if anything else is getting

young oh SAP is up five bucks but that has been absolutely destroyed just so you know SAP is a major a major league software stock that topped out a little over a year ago at 313. It's 152 and that's in the aftermarket being up 5, 6 bucks. Talk about wow. In other news, the Knicks are still the world champions. I just thought I'd mention that.

You don't mind right. but I don't want you to forget what we are telling you here about this circular financing. It's in the bazillions of dollars. And again, that is where companies are giving, investing in other companies, sometimes startups, and they've taken that money in buying the products of that company. We're not saying it's going to bring the house down. We're telling you it's what brought the house down in 99, 2000. You can go read up about it.

We don't make these things up. We're very big on stating facts here. And the thing we watch most, more than the stocks, are the credit markets when it comes to that. And if you have a chance, go read up about just put in credit default. swaps for hyper scalers. Next word trouble. And see what your chat GPT or your Gemini or your clawed, whatever the hell the AI is has to say. And then do your own investigations. And we'll see what Intel brings. And the cues are up decently in the aftermarket now.

I doubt that that's going to affect the Dow that much. No, the Dow ain't moving. By the way, the Dow is down 506 today, the NASDAQ 553, the NASDAQ 10543. By the way, I think I am not incorrect when I say to you that the NASDAQ today did hit 2446-180. was down about 730 at one time. And I must tell you, if you look at the little five minute, in the last three bars, and I'm not making this up, it went from 25029, went up 110 points in the last two bars.

So they were jamming it into the close. Maybe somebody knew something. But strong. semiconductors in the aftermarket. We'll see what tomorrow brings. The rest of the market again, very poor advanced declines today, horrible retail,

very poor consumer-related. And by the way, one thing that stood out, LVMH, Moe-H-H Mouet-C-Louis-Vitton. That's the name of the company. That's high-end stuff.

broke into new yearly low ground. Just let you know. The high end. We're told the high end is what's keeping the economy going. That's what we're told. Louis, Vitton, Moe, Hennessy, New Yearly Lows. All right, we'll see what tomorrow brings. May have a decent start.

If nothing changes, you'll have a great evening, drive carefully. when you get home, do like we do. Quite simple. Make sure you hug your family, hug your children. They will feel better. You will feel better. I promise they will be well. Have a good night, all.

Peace out. Bye, bye. This has been Investors Edge with Gary Cult Bomb on BizTalk. To listen to past episodes or to get in contact with Gary, go to garyk.com. That's GaryK.com.