Investor's Edge with Gary Kaltbaum - The overrated fed [09.16.2026]

Episode Date: September 16, 2026

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Investor's Edge with Gary Coltbaum. Straight talk about you and your money. Now from the BizTalk Studios, here is Gary Coltbaum. And welcome once again to Investors Edge. I'm Gary Coltbaum, your host day. Thanks for being with us today. Glad you here, ladies and gentlemen. Happy that you are listening.

It is September 16th, 2006. It's a Wednesday. It was a Fed Day. Wild swings in the market day. We'll go through everything. today, hope you're having a good day. If you own financial stocks, maybe not. We'll get into that. And all the movers of the day, as well as the Fed, did their little thing mob. And we're going to explain that in depth. But first, if you do not get this radio show in your city, we'll post it at

garyk.com. We'll also post it on our X feed. And if you don't follow us on X, you should. We're quite charming there. If you'd like to email us, just be nice and respectful. Why? Because We'll be nice and respectful back unless you're racist like Hamas, robbed a bank today, and amongst any crazy other things that you may have done. We'll also post it the show on the YouTube channel, Biz TV. So I hope you don't mind that I spend just a couple of minutes on something that has nothing to do with the markets, your money. You know, we do everything here. and when I hit my hot button, when something hits it, I like conveying it.

And if those that have, people that know me personally, people that have been listening to this show for a while, watch me on TV, know that, and we meet this very loudly in a very weird world. we believe we're all equal. We don't see race, creed color, trans, short, tall, fat, skinny. We think everybody should be treated well. Of course, unless they're racist, Hamas, and all that crap. And I must tell you, it certainly continues to amaze me.

that anybody thinks otherwise. I don't get it. And I know there's this move of foot on immigrants here. And, you know, I believe in legal immigration also. You know that. I have said Biden should have been impeached for what he did at the border. And I've praised this president. It's one of the things I praise him on, not many, what he's done with the border.

And that is not racism. It's you're not a country unless you have a controlled border. We believe in immigration. Come on in. Come one, come all. But you need to do it the legal way. And the reason I say that is because when you don't and you allow the other, you're pissing all over those that came here legally.

Without mentioning who. One of our closest friends, basically family. It's not family, but we call that. person family, came here legally and went through time, sweat, money, tears, and finally became American citizen after like years of going through the motions. Yet you have these people that, you know, just let in. And of course, the racism we've talked to you about what happened when I was 14 years old. Myself and a black tennis partner of mine, we're playing in a junior tournament.

We've told you that story. And just, you know, we were driving here a couple of years ago when there are people with Nazi arm bands on and doing the high hills. I'm like, where these people come from? And yesterday I'm watching a video or some other with the Heil Hitler's and everything and Jews of this and Jews of that. And I guess the new thing is Jews. And of course, I'm Jewish.

And you try to figure out where this crap comes from. You can read up about this McLemore guy and Ed Shearin and the music and stuff. This McLemore went in concert and put on a hook nose to look like a Jew and started talking about money and whatever. Also said 9-11 was caused by Jews. The whole works. And Robert Kraft wants to, you're not coming into my arenas. and now Ed Shearin's backup group and all these others are siding with the racist prick.

I mean, the guy is just an anti-Semitic, Jew-hating racist prick. And they're siding with this guy. And you wonder how it becomes so big. And you know how it becomes so big? the schools, the media, and you never know if it's just one sentence, one freaking sentence from the New York Times today

that knows many Jews read that paper. And I'm going to read something to you. They did this whole thing. They hate Israel because it's run by a right winger. If it was a left winger, they'd be a little nice. It's all politics. This is one line out of the New York Times.

And I'm reading word for word. But Israelis still largely view themselves as the victims of October 7th. In other words, the New York Times is saying, who the hell are they to act like victims of October? Really? The insanity that's out there against groups religions is just

and for some reason it's now the Jews and as you know for a long time and they still it's not as loud apartheid in Israel which is the biggest lie

I mean I've told you that I've been there many a time it's just total BS you have gays for Hamas think about that and they're being asked well wait a minute

don't you know if you went into Gaza they will murder you in the street and laugh at you. Yeah, but. So it's just so weird to watch. And I'm bringing this up because this line today from the New York Times affected me. And it shouldn't any race, creed, color, gender, denomination. It's just unreal. Israelis are deeply divided over how to apportion blame for the policy, military, and intelligence failures that preceded the attack and the war. So they're doing that part. Who's to blame? Let me tell you who's to blame. Hamas! The schmucks. And then, but Israelis still largely

view themselves as the victims of October 7th. It's stunning. It's stunning. It's stunning. Don't even know what to say. But we certainly know where all this crap comes from. It's calmly and quietly pushed out there. Anyway, hope you didn't mind. We got a segue. So you got the new...

And, you know, I don't even like talking about them because I think they're overrated. You got the central bank that... raise rates today from three and a half to three and three quarters and we told you we that was our prediction but that was chalk and that's number one number two is is that we think it was a necessary thing to do because really the job is to fight inflation that guess what your president Donald Trump has caused oh and by the way oil prices did drop today a few bucks that's good to see anyway so he raised rates today and you never know what the

reaction is going to be but something a couple of weird things happen first off let me state that the Dow drops 631 points that's number one and this was all after the move and I actually watched a little bit of the press conference which I don't usually do because, again, I think, I don't think there should be a Fed, and I mean that. I just don't think they're a necessity. I think they cause more problems than anything. Anyway, the Dow at one time at 326 was, get this, 51, 186, 280, it was down almost 900 points. It had a nice little rally into the close

and the NASDAQ and the NASDAQ 100. Get this. The NASDAQ today only finished down three points. At the lows at 327, it was 25802. It was down about 170. So that came back. And it had the relative strength all day. And the NASDAQ 100 finished up seven points.

and that just so you know the NASDAQ NASDAQ 100 semis had the relative strength all day and it took an 8 to 900 point drop to get it down a lot Hi, I'm Gary Kalbaum hosted a nationally syndicated radio show Investors Edge We're not just handsome radio people We manage investors money for a living Specializing in fee-based discretionary money management No big commissions, just a fee on the assets that's managed We also provide a full range of personalized services

including retirement planning, fixed income, and educational needs, all to assist you in achieving your financial goals. Understanding not all individuals have the same needs, we'll carefully evaluate your personal goals to determine a proper investment strategy. If your current approach to investing is not getting you to where you would like to be, call us to make an appointment for a complementary portfolio review. The number to call is 888-4-22-559. that's 888422 55559 that's 888 422 55559 investment advisory services offered through

coltbaum capital management it's time to switch on the integrator units and get the brain cells working you're listening to hey this promises to be fun investors edge the last bastion of quality programming with gary cult bomb it doesn't get better than this And welcome once again to Investors Edge. So you had some bounce from the trashing in the AI and the semis and came back strong at the end of the day. NASDAQ 100 finished up. Was down like 160, 170 at 330. But the Dow went from down almost 900 to only down 631.

The issue. And I hope you're listening carefully because. we have been on this show talking about avoid, avoid, avoid, avoid, avoid, avoid, avoid. What did we tell you about banks recently? They topped out the regional banks. They topped out the big banks. Most of the financials are topped out. We told you that. We also told you there's a bunch of areas and financials that are in bare markets like the blackstones and the black rocks and the KKRs and things like that. Well, interesting. enough today. You ready? Black Rock down another

21 bucks. Goldman Sachs down $39. By the way, that would be about 4 times 6 is 24. About 250 Dow points to the negative. Ameriprise down 18. LPL down 12. And I can go on and on and on and on. Financials were a big culprit. Why would financials be a culprit?

it because if they're raising short-term rates, these places have to pay you more money on your money markets. And if long-term rates stay the same or inch higher or lower, perception is about margins. And you know, in the market perceptions, especially in the interest rate environment, do speak volumes. That was the story today. It is definitive a void of the financials right now. Banks, investment banks, lenders of all sorts. They really ripped American Express in the Dow today. What was that, down 12?

They obviously haven't seen my American Express bills. And as I walk through it, M&T Bank. Bank down 9, that's a regional. PNC. Bank down 9, that's a regional. In fact, my screen of financials, I don't have a green stock. So just want to let you know on that. Also, interest rates going up, another rough day for the housing and housing related. Another part of the equation here is, as you know, we have been, we've pulled no punches on the war, the complete miscalculation by the president. and I don't know what they're doing now, but they're not even talking about Iran anymore. They're like, it's over. Meanwhile, Iran controls everything while the president's out there lying about it. I mean, just blatant lying. It's amazing to watch.

The good news, though, well, oil prices have been flying to the upside. They were down today, but what have we said to you about oil prices and yields? Overbought. had a big move in a short period of time, could pull back at any time. Well, oils did that today, but yields, which were down early, the 10-year yield finished higher, and so did the five-year. The 30-year was down just a wee bit. That's not great news. We don't want yields higher.

Yields higher is a cost of capital. It is a cost. Let me phrase it better. It's a cost to the economy. me. So that wasn't thrilling. But just defining the Fed raised their Fed funds rate, a quarter point. You got that? They do not do much to the long-term rates, except the Treasury Secretary tried to intervene recently in that, and that was a complete failure, even though the Treasury Secretary was on Capitol Hill yesterday saying what is success. So you can put the Treasury Secretary down as another liar out of Washington, D.C. also. So the big story for me is the financials today. Racked.

The second biggest story is J.B. Hunt, a very important trucker, was down 13% today, more than $13, down $36. And guess what they said was the problem? oil prices diesel prices that affected then and what did that do well the transports

today were down over almost 600 points what else did it do well guess what happened to other truckers ARCB down almost five that's just one Landstar 4 FedEx 6, that's a driver.

And we've been warning you about that. We've been big time warning you about that. Advance the clients today, finish poorly, up-down volume, finish poorly, the new yearly lows, yearly highs, still swamping the highs. The strength today was a bounce in the AI and the semiconductors. after being trashed a couple of days ago on the weekend news, which by the way, I've been reading up on and I'm sorry, I don't think Einstein and Stephen Hawking in a room reading about it

could figure it out either. It's very weird. Our trust is low based on four-letter word debt. These companies' massive amounts of debt in order to move things forward. And as we have said, our rusty abacus states, how the hell they're ever going to make any money off of this crap? So that was today.

I watched the Kevin Walsh for a little bit. He's, you know, he's better than Powell. Then again, a parrot would be better than Powell. I like Warsh. I think he And I like the fact He did this in spite of the president The good news is

The president has not come out And called him a moron Like he was doing with Jay Powell That's good to see A little self-discipline from the president today Tomorrow we have no idea Oh, the president had a reaction To the Federal Reserve

It's a video I'll play it in between the segments anyway the tape's a mess up next more in the markets what's sticking out this is the one only investors edge we're listening to america is talking investors edge he's got to be pleased with that the crowd is just on his feet here he's a Cinderella boy with Gary Colbomb comes highly recommended you're going to feel better if you talk to him and welcome once again to Investors Edge, I had mentioned to you, you had better relative strength in the semis. You can tell all day. And even when the Dow was down almost 900 and the NASDAQ was getting hit because of it, the Dow would move up 10 points.

You can just feel the NASDAQ and NASDAQ 100 had the bid. And they finished up today with the bid. Let me just be careful with my words. Number one, SpaceX. Held very important support today, had a very good day. $155 is the next resistance. Dell remains our number one stock in technology. And that's coming off a $57 drop a few days ago in that bad market day. how do we know when something's good

gets it all back very quickly by the way we're not advocating buying selling shorting or covering we're just letting you know where we think the strength is mentioned SpaceX here's a semiconductor Semtech SMTC and your job go look

go look at a Semtech chart versus maybe a broadcom and you will see strength versus weakness And our job at all times is to recognize strength. That's our job at all times. Anything else stand out today? Well, as I mentioned, I mean, the big sore thumb is the financials.

That's number one. Culprit number one. Number two, as I said, J.B. Hunt and the transports. Old Dominion got hit, the rails got hit. And by the way, this is on a down-oil day. Also sticking out today was the housing and housing related, but that's been the bare market for quite a while. That's the big story. I can tell you between American Express and Goldman Sachs and J.P. Morgan, J.P. Morgan was only down three and a half bucks.

But between those three big financials, let's see, 12, 51, 55, times six, about 370 of the 630 down points. You also had weakness in oils today as oil came down. So Chevron was down $6. That's about 40. IBM down 10. It's been a very weak stock. That's 65 points.

McDonald's, I got to tell you. And I got to do some reading more on this. And I haven't because I've been so busy. Do you know McDonald's is at a new yearly low again today? Again. Do you know McDonald's is pretty much trading. I'm going back to 2023. I'm going back to 2022, 2021, about four years and no gains.

Mickey Dees. And I did do some reading, competition, and pricing and all that. But damn. 342 was the high in February. It's 248 today. And as I've told you, I haven't eaten McDonald's, I think maybe in 20 some odd years. Maybe more. Not because I dislike it.

I just haven't eaten there. They do have good French fries, though. I'm not a big fan of their burgers. I think Burger King, the last time I had Burger King was like 20-some-odd years ago Burger King had better burgers. but it's stunning to watch well-known companies another one is Disney just wow

I'm looking at Disney now Disney's high was March of 21 at 203 5 and a half years it's 107 today almost 50% down over 5 and a half years for Disney one of the greatest brand names it just tells you

you just never know. You just never know. Oh, and I can go through a litany of names. That, as we always tell you, always pay attention. You just don't know. You know what the latest is Netflix. Monstrous stock. It's gone from 134 to 76.

Since June of 25. We're not going to take away from what it's did before that. huge move but and in case you don't know all the streaming companies are competing and they all keep raising fricking prices they just don't stop I got to check how many I'm on I still I forgot which one I was on that I canceled recently oh I canceled Disney I don't even know how I got on Disney the markets remained under pressure the finish better no earnings really to report this week but technically the Dow fell further broke the 50 day a few days ago the S&P 500 broke the

50 day today but finished pretty decently because of the tech component so I think it's got a chance to write itself the NASDAQ finished just below the 50 day moving average the NASDAQ 100 same the Russell 2000 acts like the south end of a northbound jackass. Small caps and midcaps are not winning the day. Real bad shape. The semiconductor index had a good day today, but that's really, it's down 20, let's say, 23, 24% from June. And by the way, that's after having a big run.

And the transports, another break of another. ledge today as rails, truckers, airlines, logistics continue to get kicked in the teeth. And by the way, they were down pretty good on a down oil day for a change. I went to check the gas pumps today this morning. They're ticking them up. And just remember, they move them up quicker than they move down. We freely tell you that. So I don't have great news on that, but let's hope we get a few more days like today on oil prices down three and change.

Because that is no fun. Now, you're going to be reading about the Fed and he was hawkish and he was this and he was that. And expect more raid hikes and all that. Pay attention to the 10-year yield. the five-year yield and the two-year. And you can throw in the 30, but I'm less so on that. And to be clear, if they keep going higher, it is bad news. And certainly will continue to be an overall headwind for markets.

And the problem is, and it is a problem. This is a worldwide thing going on. around the globe worldwide around the globe interest rates everywhere going up

I even wrote them down and I thought I had them with me I'll find it but you have decades long highs in many countries at this juncture

and they all have one thing in common? A lot of debt. I think there's some 20-year highs also out there. So we're going to be paying attention quite closely to that. And as I put in my reports all the time, watch yields. They're going to be dictating some policy here with them oil prices. Up next. What else? we got more this is the one to only investors edge

you're listening to what are we waiting for what are you waiting for one two ready go action investors edge with Gary

Colpa here's a great headline cyber cabs taking psychotic routes that turn trips around neighborhood into hour long nightmares

one person quoted held me hostage. As I have stated to you, I ain't ever getting in one. Screw that. Ain't happening. There's certain things I'm never going to do. I'm never going to parachute out of an airplane. Nope. Not happening.

Seriously. And I've been asked to. And because I'm all, you know, do a little TV. I get calls from people. Come on. We'll take you. We've been doing it several thousand times and we've never had a problem. And I said that's my problem.

Never do that. You know what else I won't do? Have you ever seen like at these amusement parks the slingshots? You know what I'm talking about? I ain't ever going on a slingshot. You know what I'm talking about, right? And I love roller coasters. You should see me at Universal here going on the Hulk.

I could do it ten times. But you ever see these slingshots? Nope. It's like a big rubber band and you go fly into the air. Nope. It ain't happening. I believe in risk management. Just letting you know.

I had to bring up something else and I really, I got caught up with the New York Times thing. I haven't watched the Emmys. I usually don't watch these award shows, but I saw a speech. from Michael J. Fox Back to the Future What was he also family ties?

And by the way, I love the back to the future. That movie was great. So in case you don't know at a very young age, he ended up with Parkinson's, right? And he's basically in a wheelchair now. He can't really get around and he's got the big shakes and stuff

and the speech is stuttered and all that. You know what he's done with his life? First, he's still acting. But he's also created the foundation to help out with his affliction. If you have a chance, go check out his speech. I love. I've never met him.

So my love is only from afar. I love this man. To take horrible scenarios inflicted upon you. by no fault of yours and turn it into action to help others afflicted your time and your effort even though you are afflicted

and I guess his symptoms worsening go watch this guy's speech I love that you know when my sons were much younger these type of things I played for them all the time you got to learn from people and greatness and the ability when there's worst case scenarios, you know? Anyway, go check that out.

Michael J. Fox, my hero. And you know what? I'm going to send a donation to his foundation just for that speech. And I've never done that before for his foundation. I probably should have. Okay, I know it has none to do with the markets. I have no clue what Tamar brings. typically when you have a bad day from the Fed, you have a better day the next day and vice versa.

I have no clue about tomorrow. The biggest issue once again, the financials act like the south end of a northbound jackass. And I think that could be a problem. Overall, it's a big part of the market. But we'll see what happens with the semis and AI because they really showed themselves today. And even when they were whacking the crap out of things, it came back. pretty quickly. There are really not many areas that I am bullish on here. You already know about retail airlines, cruise lines, casinos, anything that moves. But if oil prices and yields come

down, guess what's going to benefit the most, those areas. So we never take our eye off the ball, ever. But let me repeat. Watch the first. five-year yield, the 10-year yield, the two-year yield, a little lesser so the 30. If they keep going higher, headwinds, not just for the market, but for industry. That's the cost of capital. And of course, on the energy front, the cost of energy. drivers, anything that moves, anything that uses petroleum, those prices are going up. That is the nature of the beast, that's how it works, and there's no way around it.

And don't be mad at your gas stations, they are at the mercy. And in case you don't know, on gas, they have like a 1 to 3% margin, or is it 1 to 3 cents? Seriously, don't get mad at your gas station owner. Hopefully things get better, but I got news for you. This administration has lost control of this whole Iran scenario, regardless of what they tell you. We have been telling you all along the issues, and unfortunately, we ended up being right,

and they still haven't fired anybody. which is very goofy. Hopefully that gets better. But I think we have just moved away. It's not even talked about anymore. All the promises and all the tough talk has now gone by the wayside. So oil prices, we'll see. We think today just got overbought, stretched and extended to the upside.

hopefully it can pull back a lot. A lot. Because if it's just a normal little pullback in a bull market for oil prices, and we ended up at 120, 1.30, 140, and don't think we can't. You'll have a great evening, drive carefully when you get home. Do like I do. Simple. Make sure you hug your family.

Hug your children. They will feel better. You'll feel better. I promise. Stay well. Be well. Peace out all. Good night.

This has been Investors Edge with Gary Cultbaum. On Biz Talk. To listen to past episodes or to get in contact with Gary, go to Garykai.com. That's garykay.com.