Investor's Edge with Gary Kaltbaum - The Oversold Rally.

Episode Date: June 21, 2022

More Info At: http://garykaltbaum.comMore

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eBay, things people love. Investors Edge with Gary Cultbaum. Straight talk about you and your money. Now from the BizTalk Studios, here is Gary Cultbaum. And welcome once again to Investors Edge. I'm Gary Call, your host. A thanks of being with us today. Glad you here, ladies and gentlemen, happy that you are listening.

It is the 21st of June, 2022. Hope you had a very good three-day weekend. We have lots to cover. As you know, this is serious talk on you and everything that affects you from the economy, your jobs, the markets, the misfits run in the show, and everything else in between. We strip away all the BS. We get right down to it. We hit you right between the eyes because every dime matters. Every dime counts to us. regardless whether it matters or counts to you. That's how we treat this bad boy. Serious talk with a little comedy injected.

But I want to start off today, ladies and gentlemen, with the serious. Hope you don't mind. You see, one of the outcomes of big, bad, ugly, bare markets is a bunch of arrogant ass clowns. are shown to be who they are. And it is unfortunate because these arrogant ass clowns are people that made money in the past, but have no clue what bare markets are about,

destroying their own wealth and destroying others' wealth, yet they continue to talk a big game. And it comes out of just about every bare market, a select few. Sometimes there are the many. But a couple of things happened both this weekend and today. And this is one of the reasons why it is so imperative for you, our peeps, to pay attention. It's a price. Because price is what you get paid on.

where price is what you lose on. Everything else is pure hot, stinking caca. Somebody's opinion? Who cares? Somebody's thoughts? We don't care. A front cover of a magazine? Whipty-do?

An article? Now there are a select few people that have been right as rain and have nailed things. That's what we want to pay attention to. But I digress. And when I talk about a couple of people, there's nothing personal. I've never met them.

But I need it to be a lesson for each and every one of you. And maybe they're listening, and maybe it'll be a good lesson for them. So as we have told you, we don't take on anybody in this business. We don't believe in the karma effects. But we get emails after emails. Notice the S. Emails from all of you asking about it.

And a lot of the accounts we see have these in their accounts. And due to the fact, these people are still front and center and touting you and shouting you, I think it's incumbent upon me to give you the real, the simple real. There's nothing wrong with that, right? So we've talked about her before, and her ARC Innovation Fund is down 74.9% at the close today from its high in February of 21. 74.9% from the high. It is back to where it was right in around the weekly low of COVID.

It gave back the whole move. It is trading where it was back in November of 17. Yet this weekend, and over the past few weeks, This woman who's been averaging down on all the beaten up broken stocks in a bare market that we have told you to avoid, she's averaging down on, and actually predicting this one will be up 15fold in five years, 15fold in 10 years. We expect the coins to go to this and that, and I'm thinking to myself. Gary, if you had a fund that was down 74.9% since February of 21, 16 months, would I be out there telling people that something's going to go up 15-fold in five or 10 years? I'd have my tail between my legs if I had a tail. It's stunning the arrogance. They're not taking a step back in recognizing that if somebody had 100 grand in your fund, in 16 months, it's now 24 in change.

I take that back, 25 in change. Yet you're out there with arrogance. Stunning. These are outcomes of bare markets. And again, nothing personal. I would say everything I am telling you to her face, but I'm not done. My very good friend and a man's man, Charles Payne on Fox business, I don't know how he does it because he interviews many people.

And today he interviewed Michael Saylor. He is the CEO of Micro Strategy. And here is what I took away from the interview. From Michael Saylor. No biggie. Not worried. Got to think out 10 years. Got to think long term.

Okay? Cool. Have a good day. Michael Saylor has turned micro strategy into nothing more than a crypto fund. Just owns tons of it. The stock, since February 12th of 21, 16 months, has gone from $1,15 months, has gone from $1,15,000. to $176. $1,350 to $176.

Without even taking out my rusty abacus, that's about 86%. 86. And by the way, it hit a yearly high in November of 21 at 891, and it's 178. He's been averaging down buying more coins all the way down. And here's what I took from the interview. No biggie.

It's all cool. Got to think out 10 years. Now imagine if you had $89,000 in November of this. It's now 17,800. That's no biggie. It's cool. Think 10 years out. It's stunning.

It's absolutely stunning. And my good buddy and man's man, Charles Payne, he's got to be respectful in the interview. He asked some pointed questions, but you have to be respectful. I don't know if I can do that. I think my first question, after he does some answering with his no biggies, I'd have just one simple question.

Are you smoking crack? Somebody that 89 grand of your stock now is 17,800 a matter of seven months and you're on here, no sweat. Think 10 years. Do you realize that thing has to go back up fivefold just to get them back even? So we're just letting you know. And again, nothing personal. We're dealing with you and the protection of your capital under some of the toughest of circumstances

with a bunch of what I can just, arrogant ghouls, G-H-O-U-L-S, that have the grape fruits to look ye in the eye and say, you know, okay, it's cool. Have another shot of tequila. Up next. Lots more. I'm not done.

This is the one only Investor's Edge. Hi, I'm Gary Kalbaum, hosted a nationally syndicated radio show, Investors Edge. We're not just handsome radio people. We manage investors' money for a living, specializing in fee-based discretionary money management. no big commissions, just a fee on the assets that's managed.

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Hey, this promises to be fun. Investors Edge. The last bastion of quality programming. With Gary Coltbaum. It doesn't get better than this. So, hey yo. We take no joy in any of this. No joy.

But we have been your backstop and will continue to be. with no agenda, no bias, no ulterior motive. The only goal is to talk to you and guide you about the protection of capital when asset prices are going into the tank like they have. And I know we're dealing with just human beings and human nature. but it is stunning to see some of these what I call outlier people. I call them outliers. An outlier is out of the norm.

That seemed to have no empathy, sympathy, for the amount of losses on the assets that they are running. And we're not talking about a 25%. drop we're not talking about a 40% drop or 50 a 50% drop you have to double to get your money back one's a 75% drop which means it will have to go up fourfold from here to get back to the highs just to do that and another that has gone down more than 85%. Let's say it was 85% from the high. It would have to go up more than six and a half fold

to get back to the old highs. Yet, no biggie, it's all good. Everything's coup. I couldn't even show my face. I shut my business down. I repeat. It's stunning. And again, nothing personal. Remember that other guy? What's his name? Never met him. A Portnoy. He was with what he sell his business to was it bleacher or whatever? I don't know. Dave Portnoy, I think his name. I don't know him. Don't care. Never met him. I still remember Barstool Sports. He doesn't manage money. But when the meme stocks were going crazy, he ended up front and center. And he has a big audience and he came out and said, I'm never selling.

And stocks never go down. And then he sold because his arse was getting kicked in the teeth as he owned all those short-squeezed stocks that were destroyed. And he's not in my business, but he's treated like he's. a star. For me, I would sit down with the man and did you ever even apologize? You know you had a big audience. You said you're never going to sell and all it took was some downside. I'm getting out. Stocks never go down. By the way, we knew that was part of the bubble. People like that who show up out of nowhere. I still remember, was it 99 when Barbara Streis was supposed to be a guru on internet stocks.

Yeah, I'm pretty sure it was Barbara Streisand. A great example of late stage bull markets. Nothing against Barbara Streisand. She's got a great voice. One of the great singers of all time. This is why we pound away at our audience. You've got to drown all that crap out. And you've got to study bull and bear markets.

and what they look like, how they act. What's the roadmap? You do know when all those things went Eiffel Tower. We told you that was what we call the climactic move. And what Eiffel Towers do is go elevator straight up, elevator straight down with no in between. And that's exactly what happened with the marijuana stocks, with the meme stocks, with the hunks of junk. I just felt it's stunning today. that it was a no-biggy.

I just felt it's stunning, and I want to make sure that you guys recognize this for what it is, because here you have a stock micro-strategy that has gone from $1,15 at a close today, a 175.65. And no biggie. Anyway, we hope you're listening. We are really dead serious about the markets right now, and we ain't screwing around. Now, just so you know, we have these webcasts we do.

We have what we call members of our convictionleaders.com. Let me tell you what we did this weekend, so you have an understanding what we're already doing. This bear market has bypassed us. We got out. This is all the money we ran into November, December, January, and we passed the test again. but what we do now is we look at the other side.

As we tell you, we don't know how long bare markets go for. We do not know how long they last. I know people are out there telling you, well, we think in the fourth quarter, well, we think the first quarter, oh, we're going to have a recession, 2023. Great. We're going to tell you about now. That's up next. on this the one only investors edge.

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And while none of us can control those forces, we can control how prepared we are for them. Market swings are hitting retirement accounts and savings harder than ever, leaving many Americans wondering how to protect what they've built. That's why people are exploring physical gold and silver as a part of a broader strategy. These are tangible assets with a long history of being used when confidence in traditional markets' waivers. They're not a promise of returns, and they're not a replacement for existing investments. They're simply another tool to help diversify our portfolio. Preserve gold provides clear educational guidance to help you understand how precious metals can play a role in long-term planning, including options for holding them in an IRA.

For your free wealth protection guide, text IHeart to 50505. And with a qualified purchase, you could receive up to $15,000 in free gold or silver. Simply text IHart to 50505. Online reviews say I'm steep, rocky, and a difficult trail. Next time I'm going to say, Not if you're driving a Toyota truck. We know what we're made of. Toyota trucks.

We're listening to. America is talking. Investors edge. He's got to be pleased with that. The crowd is just on his feet here. He's a Cinderella boy. With Gary Coltbaum. It comes highly recommended.

You're going to feel better if you talk to him. Let me again state for the record. Nothing personal when mentioning these people. it's business. And we would say it straight to them. One would think, oh, we're talking behind their backs. We would say it straight to their face. We would tell them the errors of their way.

Not about losing the money. Oh, well, we try to teach them on that, but just the handling of it. Not putting themselves in other people's shoes. I think one of my great attributes in everything and anything is I put myself in other people's shoes when making decisions. So let me tell you what we did this weekend. We're in a bare market.

The NASDAQ's down in the 30s, the S&Ps in the 20s. The Dow is not there yet. Average stocks in the NASDAQ, holy crap. A list goes on and on about the average stock and where it is and all that funky stuff. We're preparing for the end of the bare market. We may be in a bare market for another three years for all I know, or two years or one year or three more days. And what we did was we busted out charts of LA Gear. In 1987, the market crashed.

LA Gear, a few days before the crash, was about to break out. You can tell. But then the crash took everything down. It dropped 50% in the crash. For the next few months, the market really did nothing. It drifted up a couple of percent. L.A. gear within a couple of months got back to the old highs and then went up 17-fold in 14 months, or 15 months.

We're studying it. We're studying it. 1990, Microsoft, Netflix. In 2008, it bottomed in November. But the market didn't bottom until March of 2009. In 82, a little company called Home Depot emerged and busted out from that bear market. So we started studying not just bottoms of the market, but we call gargantuan bare market divergences. Stocks that not only stopped going down while the market kept going down,

but started going up, and some of them were going up in earnest. And once the clouds lifted, they shot out of a cannon. And they all had the same characteristics. Huge earnings and sales growth. When it was LA Gear was small. But then they're sneakers. and just people were buying them left and right to where they went from a few million up to like a hundred million in sales

before you can say boo and kept going that's all we're doing now we're still paying attention to the bear market we're going to start looking for things that are bucking the trend what have we told you in the last couple of weeks China ADRs they much worse than our market because of the government

government looks like it's backed off so we have noticed a definitive outperformance by them versus the market and when the market just got smoke well they came down also but held lows well we had a first day up

decently today guess what they did today symbol F UTO up 14% Ali Bob up 5% Baidu up 4%. Couple of the solar's 13%

9% So they're sticking out. What's the issue there? We don't know if we wake up tomorrow and the Chinese government takes out the machete and cuts them at the knees again. All we know is, without a doubt, they're sticking out like sore thumbs. So that's what we're already doing while everybody's cowering in the corner. Or these people pretending have been fully invested all the way down. yet they're trying to tell you what to do now.

So that's what we're doing now, not knowing when this thing ends. Now, coming into this week, we simply told you, well, in six and a half trading days to the recent lows, the NASDAQ was down 13 a half, the S&P 12 and a half, the Dow 10 and a half, stretched away and extended away from their norm, which is the declining 50-day move-in-average. Randomly, you could get a bounce-slash-rally at any time for whatever reason, you got that today. Gap-up opening, didn't finish that great, and something that's still sticking in my craw, even in an up day.

And we'll state before we give you the numbers, we think today was the start of a bear market rally of unknown price and time. The bare market rallies have, the longest one has lasted 11 days since the high. So let me start with a rule of bare markets. the biggest one-day gains mostly happen in bare markets. It's a fact.

Today's market wrap is brought to you by Investment-dashmottles.com. That's Jimora back, one of the great market timers. No gray areas with the man you're either in or out of the market. It's proprietary indicators. Go check it out. Investment-mottles.com. Dow up 641.

United Health was up 28 on some Medicare payment thing, all the managed care. United Health is in the Dow, and the most important name because it's the highest price. 28, 7 times 2 is 14, 7.196. I'd say it was about 185 of those Dow points was one stock, United Health. Yeah, I'm pretty close.

S&P up 89, NASDAQ 270, NASDAQ-200-280, the SOX 70, transports 193, advance declines good, up-down volume good, there are hardly any new highs. We're not especially impressed with today. It's just a bounce. and we want you to remember something. Everything is about context. The Dow just dropped, let's see, 33-207 to 29653. Last we looked, that's about 3,500 points.

So to rally 640 and 150 from the lows Friday, we rallied 800 points of the 3,200. That would be normal as a hot day here in central Florida. Simple as that. But good day. Yeah. Bare market rally. Except maybe for Chinese ADRs.

And a smattering of things that are sticking out. Smattering. A couple of the coal stocks are still strong, even though they lost that. Good day for oil stocks today, but they were absolutely mutilated last week. I have a few still above the 50 day, moving average. And there are a few names that are strong. I don't even know if I want to name them because they've broken everything. But something like when you have a chance, go look at 8.

A ZPN, Aspen technology, go look at UTHR, United Therapeutics, strong. But they are the real exception to the rule. And when I mean exception to the rule, I mean exception to the rule. It is gross out there. Oil prices were up, yields were up today, backed up over 3.3 again in the 10 year, and again, let me repeat. Nothing good happens if yields keep going up. They've had a little pullback in the last week or so. What did we tell you Friday?

It just seems like a normal pullback in a bull market. And I can promise you, if the 10-year heads towards four, it'll not be good news. It will not be good news. A lot of green today, but I have to tell you, a bunch of retail was read. Transports, a few were red. Some of the commodities were read, travel was read, the restaurants were read, some of the economically sensitive were read, and any of you owned Facebook, which is now meta, was down seven today with the NASDAQ up 270 into New Yearly lows. Hmm. Netflix was down five today with the NASDAQ up 270, heading towards New Yearly lows and down 70-some-odd-odd percent from the highs.

So, yeah, they bounced the crypto a little bit. It was down a lot over the weekend and reversed and was up a little bit today. We'll give it that. Dogey coin went from 5.5 to 6.5. Down from 70, of course. You know what I think there. And that's a little bit of this, that, and the other thing with the markets today. I don't have much more to add.

I've been asked about seasonality. I don't know. One thing that matters most to me is in the third week of July, earnings and droves come out. And we're going to know a lot. We're going to know a lot. We do worry about the food chain of costs, from producer all the way to consumer.

And that's a reasonable, valid worry. as we head into the third quarter. Up next, this, that, and the other thing, or whatever else. Thanks for being here. This is the one only investor's edge. Struggling to see up close, make it visible with Viz. This is a once daily prescription eye drop to treat blurry near vision for up to 10 hours. The most common side effects that may be experienced while using Viz include eye irritation,

temporary, dimmer, dark vision, headaches and eye redness. Talk to an eye doctor to learn if Viz is right for you. Learn more at Viz.com. The world isn't getting any calmer. Economic instability, global conflicts, and record national debt have created an environment where financial uncertainty is a part of everyday life. And while none of us can control those forces, we can control how prepared we are for them. Market swings are hitting retirement accounts and savings harder than ever, leaving many Americans wondering how to protect what they've built.

That's why people are exploring physical gold and silver as a part of a broader strategy. These are tangible assets with a long history of being used when confidence in traditional markets' waivers. They're not a promise of returns, and they're not a replacement for existing investments. They're simply another tool to help diversify our portfolio. Preserve gold provides clear educational guidance to help you understand how precious metals can play a role in long-term planning, including options for holding them in an IRA. For your free wealth protection guide, text IHeart to 50505. And with a qualified purchase, you could receive up to $15,000 in free gold or silver.

Simply text IHeart to 50505. Online reviews say I'm steep, rocky, and a difficult trail. Next time, I'm going to say, not if you're driving a Toyota truck. We know what we're made of. Toyota trucks. We're listening to. What are we waiting for? Well, what are you waiting for?

One, two, ready, go. Action! In the Gester's Edge. With Gary Culper. So, a few tidbits. I'm just letting you know I live in northeast central Florida does that make any sense northeast central Florida

anyway I can tell you in my area that there was one home up for sale about six seven weeks ago for over a million bucks that's about 40 now towards the middle of central Florida there are these

and we're looking at the high end because we get a feel for that because we're worried more about the high end than anything. So there's an area called Windermere. And I can tell you there's like 100 homes for sale a million and higher that we're not there two, three months ago. And a bunch of them are lowering prices. So game is on. And we use the high end, not because we're elitist, but because that's where we believe the bubbles are. We believe a bunch of the high-ed, not everywhere, did the Eiffel Tower.

We're watching Miami very closely and some of these bubbled up areas. And we'll see. No predictions, just that we think the cycle is turned. We have no idea if it gets really bad or not. But you know what we think of Eiffel Towers. Next, I will tell you a nice little worry remains. I have a chart of the high-yield bonds. Boy, they act in bad.

Partially, the bubble has popped, and we said one of the biggest bubbles is high-yield bonds, but economy. So we're watching that closely, and we watch that with the H-YG and the JNK. We want to mention also on the three-day weekend, these egot maniacal, easy-money dolts at the Central Bank did not shut up.

They just don't shut up. What they're trying to do is safe face. If I was one of those sports game pickers, you know, you pay me and I give you my football picks, and I went zero for a hundred, I shouldn't be in business, right? Well, they've gone zero for a hundred, yet they're still in business,

and they're trying to save them face by telling you what's going to happen in 2012. when I don't think any of him even knows what date it is. So anyway, these people who have caused the problem, still causing the problem, just don't shut the hell up all freaking weekend long. And again today and some of the stupidest crap coming out of their mouths. It is so frustrating and is so depressing that these are the people, the most important financial people on earth,

and they don't know what the hell's going on. not even a freaking clue. And they obviously have not been watching Fox Business Network because we would have to guide him out of all this. But no. Next. So all weekend they're quoting Larry Summers. Do you know who he is?

I guess he was the ex. Used to be a Treasury Secretary, smart guy. He's been warning about inflation for a few months. And he's being quoted by everybody. we warned about inflation 18 to 20 months ago nobody quotes us we're just nobody's good by the way though it's not a complaint

we want to stay under the radar once you get quoted no go and yeah I know I'm on TV but I'm under the radar on TV believe it or not you know there are people that above the radar you know like that guy who's calling bottoms every five days, told you to buy technology 10 days ago, told you to buy oil six days ago.

He's above the radar. I'm below. And we hope to keep it that way. But I will tell you, a little ego in me, why don't they quote me from 18 months ago? It wasn't hard to say there was inflation six months ago because there's already inflation.

18 months ago wasn't so easy. A little ego in me. I'm just going over. I mentioned oil bounced today. What was interesting is they trashed oil stocks last week. The oil prices just pulled back a little bit, but oil stocks did bounce up, but let me just state for the record,

now very wobbly, and I'd be very careful about. new money in it at this juncture. There are plenty that are now below the 50-day moving average, below resistance, some worse than others. There's a few things still hanging in there pretty well. I think I saw one name that was actually at a new yearly high, almost, a pipeline, Scorpio Tankers, STNG, almost at highs. But that's the exception to the rules. I'd be careful there. And the same goes for the commodities also. But I will tell you this. Cotton, cotton breaking down.

Wheat, breaking down. Soybeans, looks like it's topping out. Corn looks like it's topping out. So just letting you know, oh, copper, that is topped out big time. So just letting you know some of these commodities topped out. topped out, if not worse. But really it's energy that dictates policy on quote unquote inflation.

That's got to come down a lot more. Some of the proposals out of this administration absolutely make no sense whatsoever, but that is to be expected from them. Let me tell you the best news to come from Joe Biden. Out of Jimmy Carter, God bless him. I think he's one of our great Americans who has spent his years after the presidency with philanthropics. God bless him.

Didn't do what the Clintons did. Influence peddled through a foundation. He's philanthropy. God bless him. Wasn't that great a president. We got Ronald Reagan coming out of Jimmy Carter. Gosh, if we can get a Ronald Reagan coming out of Joe Biden. And I'm not talking Trump.

He's no Ronald Reagan. Anyway, we'll talk about that more as we get closer. You all have a great evening. Drive carefully. Again, nothing personal on those. Until tomorrow, I'll be on with Charles Payne, 2 p.m. hour tomorrow, Fox Business. Same time tomorrow, when you get home, do like we do. It's very simple.

Make sure you hug your family, hug your children. They will feel better. You will feel better. I promise. Peace out, all. year. Bye-bye. This has been Investors' Edge with Gary CultBomb on BizTalk. To listen to past episodes or to get in contact with Gary, go to GaryK.com.

That's GaryK.com. Online reviews say I'm steep, rocky, and a difficult trail. Next time, I'm going to say, not if you're driving a Toyota truck. We know what we're made of, Toyota trucks. This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide.

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