Investor's Edge with Gary Kaltbaum - The Powell Week in Review [08.22.2025]
Episode Date: August 22, 2025https://garykaltbaum.com/...
Transcript
Discussion (0)
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Investor's Edge with Gary Cultbaum.
Straight talk about you and your money.
Now from the BizTalk Studios, here is Gary Cultbaum.
And welcome once again to Investors Edge.
I'm Gary Colbaum, your host.
A thanks for being with us today.
Glad you here, ladies and gentlemen, happy that you are listening.
It's Friday.
It's August 22nd.
It's 2025.
Hope you having a good day.
Hope you're going to have a good weekend.
I'm going to relax.
Hey, in case you don't know, this is serious talk on everything that affects you.
They'll do the markets, the economy, your job, your industry.
Jay Powell Day will explain that and why the market in the first 10 minutes of 10 o'clock today went ape crap to the upside and much more.
Oh, by the way, we're also going to do today.
What did I write down?
Oh, crack or barrel.
a little bit on Washington, D.C.
And if you don't get this radio show in your city,
we'll post it at garyk.com.
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You should.
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It'll also be on the podcast apps and the Biz TV YouTube channel.
So we're just going to explain and describe.
Explain and describe.
Explain and describe.
So let's explain.
We have stated.
to you because all this talk about will they cut rates will they not and what have we told you
when it comes to your job your industry the economy j powell cutting rates is not meaningful
if he cuts a quarter point of his little fed funds rate and go look what fed funds is
I'll give you the definition.
It's what banks lend and give to each other or loan to each other.
But it also sets kind of conditions, easy monetary policy, restrictive, whatever.
And we said to you that, but it will move markets.
To what extent we never know?
It depends where you are in the cycle.
Normally, a central bank is cutting rates when there is strife.
The economy's in recession.
Unemployment's really picking up, so we're going to cut rates and ease on the monetary policy.
Well, let's see.
We're going to have about a 2.5% GDP this quarter.
That's not strife.
The unemployment rate is still, what, around 4.5 something?
That's not strife.
So why would the Fed cut rates?
Well, let's look at a couple of things.
The pundits have been blaming J. Powell for not cutting rates.
What they have been saying about J. Powell is that he's political and he doesn't like Trump.
We're talking Trump pundits.
That's why he's not cutting rates.
He does not like Trump.
well, at his speech today in Jackson Hole on purpose, he basically telegraphed,
and he didn't use the exact words, but he telegraphs it, and we know what he means,
that they are going to cut rates in September.
It is my contention that this rate cut is purely political, and it's also personal.
What does that mean?
Well, let's imagine you're the central banker, the second most important person on this earth financially behind the president of the United States.
And you are being called a moron every day.
Now, we've called them morons, but I'm just this little guy with a radio show.
Imagine the predates of the United States blasting you every day.
The worst of the worst.
well a few things occur at that point in time well number one uh you're going to be getting death threats
because people on the extremes on right and left are insane you're going to get death threats
number two you are going to get much more security in other words you are not even going to walk
around your building you're going to be card in to the
garage so is not to be seen he's in jackson hole right now i would guess this five to eight
people around him well you can't even get there near there anyhow so what do you do j pal well
what's what's human nature uh i've had enough i'm just going to lower rates that's my belief
you may disagree or not but human nature's the human nature so he telegraphed that well
what happened? Well, the economy's not going to change. Maybe the wealth effect. Anyhow, the
market, first off, it was leaked because the Dow was up like 300 and changed right out of the get-go.
So it was leaked. Somebody knew something. But at 10 o'clock, you went up another 300 points on the
five minute bar and by let's see you already hit your high in the first half of the day and then
you drifted that's pretty normal for a day like today and you ended up 846 points so the
Dow today it doesn't sound like a lot but 1.89% for the Dow is pretty big but let me describe
it for you which is more important you listening Mr.
and Mrs. Technician out there?
The Dow today broke what we call a quintuple top.
That's five.
In other words, it hit just over 45,000 in December,
late November, early December of last year.
It hit just over 45,000 in late January, early February.
It hit 44-885 in early July.
It hit 4,501-6 in late July.
In the last week, it went just above it twice and fell back, and we'll include that as one.
Today, it broke above those five resistance points.
You got that?
If this was a growth stock, I would have been buying the crap out of it as a growth stock guy.
You got that?
But it's the Dow, but it still counts.
The Dow is 30 names, and what did the trick today on the Dow?
Well, when the Fed lowers rates, what's going to do well?
Well, kind of sort of everything gets moving, but let's start with financials.
Between American Express, Goldman Sachs, and J.P. Morgan, which is lower beta, that's 11 and 26, is 13.26, is 13.000.
37, let's call JP, 42 Dow points, if I can find it, 42 Dow points times six and a half.
That's the divisor about.
That was 273 Dow points on the financials.
Now, there's two that are housing related, and that's Home Depot and Sherwin-Williams.
That's 24 Dow points, so 24 times six point.
that's another 156 so just those four names are about 430 Dow points there's your story and of course
everything else will drift higher and every most everything the only things that were down today
were coke procter and gamble Verizon three very defensive issues and Walmart which actually
market wasn't thrilled with their earnings recently so it followed through so let me repeat the
Dow broke out of five tops that were going on the past 10 months, a technical breakout of the 30
stock Dow, and it's easy to measure that because there's two things going on. Number one,
a $44 stock like Verizon, which is the lowest price stock, is meaningless to a stock like Goldman Sachs,
that's 741 which means Goldman Sachs is about, let's call it 16 to 740,000.
17 times more important to the Dow number that you hear about every day.
So we start with the Dow.
Next.
Today.
The banks, I mentioned them, right?
So the banks today, there are certain exchange traded funds for them.
The KBE was the S&P Banks Industry Index.
Did not break the highs of last November, but it hit $60.
in January, almost 60 bucks in July twice, and broke above it today. KBE. It's the banks.
The KBWB, which is the NASDAQ bank, broke above the recent highs at 75 bucks.
Up next, we'll keep describing more. And as always let you decide. This is the one only investor's edge.
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Off the beaten path, ladies and gentlemen, if you ever get a text like I just got in the last segment that says Florida final notice, enforcement begins August 24th.
Our records indicate that as of today you still have an outstanding traffic ticket pursuant to Florida Administrative Code.
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Report it to the violation database.
suspend your vehicle registration, suspend your driving privileges 30 days, pay a 35% service
via the toll booth, you may be prosecuted.
It's a scam.
Just remember that.
It's amazing that there's still people out there scamming people.
Oh, do you know why they scam people?
Because they actually make money off of people.
It's amazing.
Don't be scammed.
You got that?
Don't be...
Scammed. Let's continue.
So I mentioned to you the banks, but here's another one.
The regional banks have been such dead money, and they've been better because the market's been better today.
The KRE, it's the regional bank select, broke, let's call it edged above, recent resistance at $64.14.
cents. Now it hits 65, 56 in February and 70 in a quarter of November, but this was an important
day for it and still has plenty of work to do. And as you know, because of the Silicon Valley Bank
thing, what was that, January of 22? The old high was $78. But since that happened today,
the Russell 2000, which has been improving, had two very good days recently and pulled back
pretty much all the way to the lows of those two days jumped and leave no doubt the Russell 2000
is laden with a lot of these regional banks that kind of sort of going hand in hand right now to a certain
extent not all the way so just letting you know the regional banks were a big big help today
so what do we got the Dow moves out keep in mind it's the Dow the banks good
day, the regional banks
good day, which helps the
Russell 2000,
all moving above little range.
Now the Russell 2000,
by the way,
the old
high was last November
2466, it closed
the 2361 today.
It has plenty of work to do.
Oh, wait, you got to go back
to December of 21 to 2459,
which, by the way, the 2466,
actually edged above that number from three years before.
Let me be clear, if ever, if ever, the Russell 2000 breaks above that high of December of 21 and December of 24, buy the snod out of it.
Now, I've got to take that back.
My opinion is it would be viable to buy the snod out of it.
do your own homework.
But that would be one big, gigantic three-year double,
will actually be a triple top breakout
because we're on the triple right now.
But keep in mind, it is laden with the regional banks
and stuff like that.
What else happened today?
Well, just a few things.
The semiconductors bounced off the 50-day moving average,
which is of import.
That's another. The 10-year yield dropped down not that much, 0.7. So it went from 4.3.30 to 4.26.
And I was really watching that because remember the last few times the Fed lowered rates, the 10-year yield went up.
So that's good to see. That's good to see, at least today. What else happened today?
well the home builders as I mentioned and what you've had recently is the home building and the
home building related went from bear market to bottoming process to potential better and that
started in early July and not once has it broken back below the 50 day but there's been some
dire days and testy days and just recently
Hohvenatian got smacked yesterday.
I was back up 14 today.
Why?
Because the home building stocks typically do better with an easier central bank.
So we'll see if that continues.
What else happened today?
The transport.
Well, they've been miserable with a 500 today.
The word would be, it looks like a three-year-old had some crayon.
and we're scribbling on a piece of paper.
That's what that looks like.
But definitely a good day.
And just overall, defensive stocks, defensive issues were down.
Offensive was up.
Economically sensitive, industrial types, and the like.
Will this last?
We never know.
We're just describing to you that with markets within a stone's throw
the year highs, money supply skyrocketing, debt skyrocketing, the Fed is, the GDP is in the
twos, the job market's fine, the Fed is lowering rates, and that's because he's lowering rates
politically and personally.
If I were him,
I'd be tired of the most famous human being on this planet
with the biggest bully bull pit
calling me a moron daily
and an imbecile daily.
And I'm more than likely getting,
and I don't know that as fact,
but I know how this stuff works here, ladies and gentlemen,
getting death threats daily
and having to worry about my,
family daily I'm given in. That's my take. That's just my opinion. And by the way, I'm a Fox News
business contributor. I appear on Fox News and Fox Business. I know of these things and how crazy
people are. While I get lots of love, you wouldn't believe how much love I get from people that
recognize me. I've also had some very weird. People are nuts. Let me take that back. The extremists
are nuts on both ends, on both ends. And it's a shame they're out there. My favorite one of all
time, I'm in Philadelphia transiting with my friends going to play golf in Ireland. Two people in
front of me heard my voice, they turn around, they look at me. Oh, that's my music. I'll explain
the second. It's pretty funny. Almost. I'm Gary. This is the one only investor's edge.
Hello, hello. I'm Malcolm Gladwell, host of Smart Talks with IBM. I recently spoke with IBM's
new director of research, Jake Mbata. We discussed his vision for the future of quantum computing.
At IBM research, what we always do is answer what is the future of computing.
whether it's coming up with new algorithms,
coming up with better AI,
coming up with quantum,
or coming up with just how do different accelerators go together?
It's our DNA to answer the question of what is the future.
Isn't it a perfect problem for IBM
because you kind of need to have a legacy of building stuff?
Yes.
Building actual physical machines.
Yeah, it's why I came to IBM.
I wanted the experience,
the culture of building high,
things that others have not done before.
Where do you imagine we are in the timeline of this technology?
There will come a point when it will mature.
Right?
My cell phone is a mature technology at this point.
How far are we from that point with Conton?
By 2029, we'll build the first fault-tolerant quantum computer.
That is one that can run a very, very large, large problem.
To learn how IBM is building the future of computing,
visit IBM.com
slash quantum.
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Spring in for store-wide deals and earn four times of points.
Look for in-store tags to earn on eligible items from Celsius, Body Armor,
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Stack up those rewards to save even more.
Enjoy savings on top of savings when you shop in-store or online for easy drive-up
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He's got to be pleased with that.
The crowd is just on its feet here.
He's a Cinderella boy.
With Gary Colbomb.
It comes highly recommended.
You're going to feel better if you talk to him.
So as I was saying,
typically I get people come up to me and, you know,
see you on TV, listen to your radio show,
they're very polite very nice some profusely very nice and as i was traveling to ireland i'm online
getting on the airplane and people i guess heard my voice and recognize it or something and they turn
around they engage me and i'm thinking okay here i got my friends that next to me standing next to me
and i'm thinking they're going to say something nice and uh i i had no idea and they said yeah we
We've listened to your show.
We've seen you on Fox.
Oh, okay.
And they look at me up, we can't stand you.
You're disgusting.
Right in front of my friends.
And I thought maybe they were going to laugh or something.
No, they meant it.
And in my usual charming self, because I know how to react,
do you mean to tell me you took a minute out of your time to turn around and put me down?
He said, yeah.
I said, okay, have a good day.
And that was that.
And actually, I'd have them stand in front of me for like 15 minutes before we got on the plane.
And then we have much worse than that every now and then.
And I'm pretty sure Powell got done with it.
Because the president's wrong to be singling people out.
He fired the BLS girl and said she was a liar and a cheat and rigged it.
I guarantee you she got death threats.
He's calling for a Fed head now to be fired.
there's no innocent before guilty now
with just this Fed head woman
didn't want to lower rates but all of a sudden she's bad
and all of a sudden she did something wrong
remember innocent before guilty
I guess he's accusing of a mortgage fraud or something like that
that's got to stop
I don't care who it is
and the shame of it is
the president should know
he should know he got railroaded by the left
remember what we told you
It was all BS, all those charges against him.
My favorite one is they said Mar-a-Lago was worth $15 million or $18 million.
That thing's worth a quarter billion, if not a half a billion.
And don't get me started.
No, I'm not going to get into the other parts.
Anyway, so that's the story of today.
Very good day in the market.
We'll see if there's follow-through.
We're agnostic on that.
You never know what the next few days are going to bring.
but that was pretty strong
and it brought along
how do I put this
it brought along
a bunch of areas
that have been waking up recently
why because the
the Fed is meaning as we said
they're not going to change the economy
ain't going to change your job
it's going to change the market
potentially for further
especially
the Fed usually lowers rates
when the economy
is not in great stead.
That's how it's always been.
So we'll see what next week brings.
I have no clue,
but today was a very good day.
Now, I will tell you this,
it all happened in the first 10 minutes after 10 o'clock.
The rest of the day,
the market pretty much marked time.
In fact, the Dow today, let's see,
actually dropped about 120 points from the high.
and that was in the 11 o'clock hour.
But still, you don't take away from what happened today.
Anything else I need to point out,
I think I gave you the crux of it, of the areas.
And again, housing, housing related,
the small caps, the midcaps,
it was just a pretty good day.
And kind of sort of the economically sensitive.
And why would a coin a point get Hilton up eight bucks?
Beats the hell out of me.
Don't know. It's just the way the market is with easier money.
And by the way, Trump put Powell down after he did this.
He actually put him down.
Let's move on.
I pretty much, I think, covered everything on the general basis I need to cover.
And we'll see what next week brings.
I will say this.
Some of the glamour names, all of them were pretty much up today, except a couple.
I think they're going to lag right now for a bit and set up again.
Hopefully in the weeks ahead and we'll jump out in October.
So I want to remind you there's been a lot of people saying August, September, the worst months.
Look out.
Not when the central bank is lowering rates while markets are near highs.
Hell no.
Again, we'll see what Monday brings.
A few other thoughts on this day.
Cracker Barrow.
So as usual, the right now is calling them woke and woke.
You know, that's the new thing.
You know, woke, woke, woke.
I always thought the right was supposed to be tolerant,
let be and let the chips fall where they may and all that stuff,
as long as you're not hurting anybody's life.
And of course, when after Budweiser and when Budweiser,
Weiser did that thing or, you know, with whatever.
And now they're going after Cracker Barrel because Cracker Barrel changed their moniker
and also change the indoors of their dining hall.
You call it whatever you want.
I'm just going to tell you, first off, in case you don't know, Cracker Barrel's stock was
$180 bucks back in 2000.
2021, it's 54 bucks today. So they had to do something different. That's a gimmy.
But I got to tell you, going from very cozy dining room restaurant to not so cozy, I think they're imbeciles.
As far as the moniker, I think they're imbeciles. I'm not using the word woke. I'm using the word business.
there's something when it comes to people going to restaurants, especially chains, of a certain culture.
It's called culture.
And people, I believe, go to Crackerbell.
And by the way, in case you didn't know, even while they have troubles, they still do about $8.16.3.4 billion in revenue, still has $658.58, full.
service restaurants in 44 states. By the way, the good news is they're not changing their
stores. They have the greatest old candy. You know all the old candy? Liquor made and all kinds of
stuff in their stores. They needed to change their marketing. You ever see anything on Cracker Barrel
that really stood out? But now they're trying to, they think they're going to change the culture.
I would have been putting out videos
First off I would have done TikToks and all that cuts the new in thing
Try to get the young crown stuff
But if not
The advertisements you know what they should have been
You know they have these rocking chairs at the front of Cracker Barrel
I love those
I would have been having commercials with the rocking chairs
I'd have commercials of the old candy
I'd have commercials of the restaurants
and all this coziness and the cozy type food in there.
People still love that.
I must tell you, I have an ear to the ground and eyes wide open.
I haven't seen squat from them.
Maybe I'm wrong, but I haven't seen squat from them.
I would have done that.
But no, let's make the restaurants bland
and change the cover.
from what people are used to,
I wonder if they even did any surveys.
Because I got to figure,
if they surveyed the customer base,
the customer base would have said,
no, don't change that.
So, again, they're keeping the candy.
I'll give them that.
And we'll see how it plays out.
Cracker barrel stock got hit this week.
Pretty good.
And I hope it works out.
I love the place.
I think the place is fantastic.
Whenever I go on a road trip, I'm stopping at Cracker Barrels.
And there's one right where we live.
I go every now and then.
I don't go often, but I go every now and then.
And I play the game, the peg game, that I can never get down to two.
Ever.
It's the most frustrating crap I've ever tried.
You know the little peg game they have.
They better not get rid of that.
Anyway, that's a little bit of the Cracker Barrel story.
on this day. By the way, I mentioned housing related. They also, they ramped up a little bit,
the mobile manufacturers, the motor homes and things like that. And we'll see. Jay Powell.
I think on a personal note, absolutely did the right move for him and his family.
Up next, DC, this is important. This is the one only investors' edge.
Hello, hello, I'm Malcolm Gladwell, host of Smart Talks with IBM.
I recently spoke with IBM's new director of research, Jake Mbata.
We discussed his vision for the future of quantum computing.
At IBM research, what we always do is answer what is the future of computing.
Whether it's coming up with new algorithms, coming up with better AI, coming up with quantum,
or coming up with just how do different accelerators go together.
It's our DNA to answer the question.
of what is the future.
Isn't it a perfect problem for IBM
because you kind of need to have a legacy
of building stuff?
Yes.
Building actual physical machines.
Yeah, it's why I came to IBM.
I wanted the experience,
the culture of building hard things
that others have not done before.
Where do you imagine we are
in the timeline of this technology?
There will come a point
when it will mature, right?
Yeah.
Cell phone is a mature technology at this point. How far are we from that point with Quantum?
By 2029, we'll build the first fault-tolerant quantum computer. That is one that can run a very, very large, large problem.
To learn how IBM is building the future of computing, visit IBM.com slash quantum.
Success starts with your drive, and American Public University is here to fuel it.
With affordable tuition and over 200 flexible online programs,
APU helps you gain the skills and confidence to move forward.
Whether you're changing careers, starting fresh, or pursuing a lifelong passion,
our programs are designed for people who never stop.
You bring the fire, APU will fuel the journey.
Learn more at APU.APUS.edu.
Hey, it's Ryan Sechrest for Albertsons and Safeway.
It's stockup savings time now through March 31st.
Spring in for store-wide deals and earn four times of points.
Look for in-store tags to earn on eligible items,
Celsius, body armor, or Ida, silk, Capri-San, Bavarian Meets, and Charmin.
Then clip the offer in the app for automatic event-long savings.
Stack up those rewards to save even more.
Enjoy savings on top of savings when you shop in-store or online for easy drive-up and go pick-up or delivery.
Restrictions apply.
See website for full terms and conditions.
You're listening to.
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Action!
In the investors' edge.
with Gary Culper.
And welcome once again to Investor's Edge.
You know, a very important part of the economy is safety.
You do know that, right?
You do know they have shut a ton of stores in San Fran just out of safety.
You do know, go to New York City, any drugstore, and some things are just locked up.
They got toothpaste locked up.
Safety. In New York City now, they have very much added much police presence in the subways for safety.
Now, there is a communist mayor that does not like police, called them racist, and he thinks that when somebody attacks somebody in the subway, you should get a social worker than a police officer, yet this guy is going to win the election.
which is sickening, and I have no control of that.
Anyway, I was just watching.
The mayor of Washington, D.C. is pissed off at the president for putting in a major presence in Washington, D.C. because of crime.
I saw a few pundits called Donald Trump racist because he doesn't like blacks.
This hurts blacks.
What?
Huh?
So I was thinking about that today, and I just want to make sure you have an understanding that if the places you visit, if the restaurants you want to go to, if the shopping malls you want to go to, if any way you want to go to are not safe areas, you're not going to go there, and they're going to shut down.
And I was thinking because I was listening to these people called the president racist because he doesn't like blacks, and this affects blacks more.
And I was thinking of myself, boy, I think I may have to tell the story again.
As you know, I've been with the Boys and Girls Clubs of Central Florida for more than 20 years.
Now, I've been the chairman of the board for one year.
You only get one year.
I've done a lot there.
I'm one of these people that are very active.
Every year we sponsor and donate our hardering dollars for a big Thanksgiving dinner for the kids.
And typically, I think we've averaged 300 minimum per year, kids that show up.
So we've been doing it for more than 20 years.
So we've had about 6,000 meals, if not more.
But I don't just do dinners.
I talk to the kids.
And we ask them the simplest of questions.
What are the most important things for you going forward?
And why do you come to the boys and girls clubs of Central Florida?
Florida. Well, one of our monikers is be great. So we get that. Yeah, we want to be great. I really want to do something. I want to accomplish something. I want to do this. I want to do that. Yeah, it's terrific. But you know what a lot of them say also? We want to feel safe and be safe. Because many of them, and many of them are black, come from places that are not safe. And I still remember,
something that'll stick with my mind the rest of my life.
The rest of my life.
We had a young boy in.
We have somebody from the clubs always speaking to us every month at the board meetings.
And I think he was about maybe 10, 11, 12 years old.
And he came in.
We didn't know what the heck he was going to say.
He came to tell us his brother, who was 16, was murdered.
A month before, he was with a gang, got in with a gang, was murdered, gun, dead.
I was in tears, 10, 11 years old.
And all I'm thinking to myself is in Washington, D.C. a year ago, it was reported that they had to put out flyers to the citizens about protecting themselves from carjackings.
yet people are arguing with a president trying to make the place safer
and trying to score political points by putting something like that down
that's all I was thinking about today
your kids what do you want for them right now
you want them safe it's not safe in D.C.
Teenagers have been going on reckless carjackings every day
it's going on. And I'm a big believer
they lie about the numbers of
crimes. And I'm also thinking, boy, oh boy.
The numbers have come down, crime has come down big time because
you know when there's a bigger police presence,
criminals don't commit crimes. And I'm thinking
to myself, if one teen did not do a carjacking
because of this, isn't that a good thing?
And maybe that teen will think twice going forward?
Think about that.
So these people out there are nuts.
Complaining and calling it racist?
I got news for you.
100% helps the black community.
Helps the economy there.
They had some jackass of a reporter
tried to make like the restaurant's numbers were down because of it.
And it came out.
He lied or he was misspoke and had to change his story.
There is nothing bad about making community safer for all, including the would-be criminals.
Because maybe they'll think twice going forward.
Do they do it perfectly?
I don't know.
Nothing's perfect.
Anyway, I thought I had to bring that up today because I was stunned.
And I know a lot of it's politics, anything Trump.
Trump does is bad. That's what they got to say.
You know, according to them, he caused the Chicago fire and the San Francisco earthquake.
But we don't have a good economy if we don't have a safe place to have an economy.
That's all. My take. And I'm right.
A couple other notes, and I forgot to mention, Bitcoin held the 50-day moving average and
bounced also with the NASDAQ today, which is also somewhat of the norm these days.
So very good day.
I'm going to get to the scanning.
We'll see what we'll find.
You have a good weekend.
You drive carefully.
When you get home, do like we do.
Quite simple.
Make sure you hug your family.
Make sure you hug your children.
They will feel better.
You'll feel better.
I promise they will be well.
Thanks for joining.
Hope we're helping.
Good night all.
Bye.
Bye.
This has been Investors Edge with Gary Cultbaum on BizTalk.
To listen to past episodes or to get in contact with Gary.
Go to GaryK.com.
That's GaryK.com.
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