Investor's Edge with Gary Kaltbaum - THE PRETTY DARN GOOD WEEK IN REVIEW
Episode Date: January 13, 2023Follow Gary on GaryK.com or http://garykaltbaum.com...
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Investor's Edge with Gary Coltbaum.
Straight talk about you and your money.
Now from the BizTalk Studios, here is Gary Cultbaum.
And welcome once again to Investors Edge.
I'm Gary Coltbaum, your host.
A thanks for being with us today.
Glad you're here, ladies and gentlemen, happy that you are listening.
It's Friday the 13th.
And you know I am not into all that crap, right?
Not a lick.
I don't believe in superstition.
I believe we control our own destiny with our own choices and decisions.
Remember, your life is the compilation, the adding up of your choices and decisions.
Which way you decide to go?
Which way you decide to be?
So I'm not into this Friday to 13 crap.
But I will not step on any cracks and I will not walk under a ladder.
All right, that's a joke.
Anyway, thanks for being here.
This is Investors' Edge.
We're going to answer some of your questions because we're getting some
questions on things we don't want to be getting questions about. A few news tidbits of the day.
And of course, the markets. And until last Friday, just last Friday, we had really not much good to say about the markets.
In fact, we had a miserable December. We had three weeks of just little tight backing and filling
action, just little tight backing and filling action. And before Friday of last week, there was a
couple of days where I thought we were going to break to the downside from that three weeks.
In fact, there were a couple of days that teased it, especially in the NASDAQ, NASDAQ 100 types
that have been so weak and remain relatively weak, but are actually.
themselves getting a little bit of life, and then came Friday.
And as we said to you, good chance change a complexion as we had one of those confirmation days.
On Monday, crappy reversal, but still the advanced declines were strong.
And since then, I can't think of anything bad, except there are some areas that are negative,
that are just topping out recently, and we named them,
two of them are managed care, crushed.
Defense stocks crushed again today.
But let me state, in the best way I know how,
the floor of the market picked up
as all the comatose crap has come off the lows
and has rallied up with some things like the airlines
going vertical, somewhat of what we call outlier moves.
But as I said to you, and I'm quoting myself to you, not paraphrasing, quoting,
if we continue to have days like we are seeing with the advanced declines,
the indices have to go higher, will go higher.
Just like when we were going down, we kept saying if we continue to have advanced
decline figures that are getting trashed every day, market is going lower.
and today
markets
massively overbought
which normally leads to
pullbacks
well I can tell you with the close of the day today
remained massively
overbought but
the market gave the massively overbought
a middle finger
the Dow
opened up down 270
in the first minutes
it finished
up nicely today
and near the highs of the day.
NASDAQ also, rough open.
And even some of the dead and buried
Mega Cap tech.
Amazon's broken back above the 50.
It just looks like the rest of them
going to rally up some, though, only for trades.
And just another good day.
And interesting enough, on a day where yields were actually up.
So the best way I can put it,
until things change, until we say otherwise, see otherwise.
First, we'll let you know what to avoid because there's still plenty.
But man, open up down 270, finish up 112.
J.P. Morgan opens up down five bucks, finishes up three and a half on its earnings report.
Now, there was some wacky.
United Health opened up five, was up 14 at one time, finished down six.
in the Dow on earnings. Guess what? Manage Care. So we just want to start with that little
general stuff on what we're seeing. Just change a pace, change a complexion.
We have no idea how far it goes, how long it lasts. Not a clue. And in fact, next week,
we don't know what's going to happen with you ready? Goldman Sachs, Morgan, Stanley, UAL, Schwab,
Discovery Financial, American Airlines, Procter & Gamble, Netflix, Allie Financial, Schlumberger, State Street Bank, Truist, used to be SunTrust.
Why would anybody change the name of a bank from SunTrust to Truist?
Where, by the way, I bank.
It's like the stupidest thing I've ever heard.
What the hell is a truest?
SunTrust, you can understand.
The Sun.
trust us
no truist
like I never understood
why they trade change it from
what are they what do they change it from
square
what's it called now square
square to a block
the hell is that
and you know what else I've never understood
they went for Outback Steakhouse
to a what is it
blooming brands
the hell is that
oh it's the blooming
onion. Who cares? Outback Steakhouse, you know what it is. And Facebook, you morons,
change the name to meta platforms? What the hell is a meta platform? But back on track.
So we have no clue what these earnings reports are going to be and how the reaction goes.
All we know is J.P. Morgan was down five on the open today. Very bad open for a big financial
finishes up three and a half. What does that tell you?
What's the physicality? Well, first things first. It opened up right above the 50-day moving average where it held three weeks ago. Oh, okay, so defense. What else? They recognize the defense. It starts moving higher, starts feeding on itself. Boom. That's what happened. Bank America opened down, finished up. City Group opened down, finish up. Wells Fargo opened down, finish up. By the way, Wells Fargo was down.
big had a big bar today let me make sure that's correct yes it did big down early
what does it tell you on what was initially perceived to be not good ended up good
we're not talking big moves here but our job is to recognize can the market get
trashed again or not I got news for you it can't if financials don't go down
and the fact they were all down today got defended in
finish up on volume, probably meaningful near term. Notwithstanding Goldman on Monday, but
you know, Goldman always beats by eight bucks. So that's next week. And the week after,
it's even bigger, the amount of names. The week after is going to be Google, Apple, and
Amazon. Next, the week, by the way, Microsoft's, in the week after next. And that's it. Change a
complexion. And you can tell in real time how bearish we were to Friday change the complexion.
And nothing we have seen. Nothing we have seen takes us off of that. But, you know, we got to throw some butts in.
We hate. We hate. We abhor that they are speculating. Again, you do know bed, bed, bath and
They just rallied this thing from $1.27 up to $5.87 yesterday.
There's a company that any day can announce we're shutting the doors or refinanced debt.
Who the hell knows?
We hate that.
It was down a buck 75 today.
Down 30% try playing that.
They've rallied up a little bit AMC theaters.
These are all short squeeze stuff.
And as we mentioned also, no sales biotechs.
really
so that is a
I hate these words
but I'm going to use it
the fly in the ointment
I have no idea what flying the ointment means
but I've heard it before
meaning it's something you got to watch out for
something that could be troublesome
fly in the
ointment I hate that
I'm actually going to fly in the
ointment
on the break I'm going to figure out what that means
a minor irritation that spoils
the success or enjoyment of something
there you go
Up next, much more.
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to. Hey, this promises to be fun. Investors Edge. The last bastion of quality programming.
With Gary Coltbaum. It doesn't get better than this. And welcome once again to Investors Edge.
By the way, I don't drink soda very often, but I got to tell you, Coca-Cola coming out with the zero stuff.
They got this cherry vanilla Coca-Cola zero. Man, is it good? Zero calorie, zero, zero fat,
zero carbs zero sugar there's got to be something wrong with it though right anyway not often if I
have 10 sodas a year it's a big year and as you know I don't drink I'm gonna guess in
22 mm seven drinks that's my guess 2002
whenever I go to Nobu up in New York they have very good martinis I like the spicy
ones. I think maybe I had seven drinks in
2022. I have not had a drink in
2003 as of yet. You know why I'm bringing that up?
Off the beaten path. You know, I have a radio show
slash podcast now that I get to tell you what I think.
And it's not just about the markets, the economy, jobs,
unemployment, taxes, deficit, spending, scam, shams, corruptions,
and the criminals in Washington, D.C. What I hate very much is the
legalization of drugs and there's people that think you should legalize heroin.
And they're giving out needles in cities for people to shoot up and stuff.
It nauseates me when they glorify some of these actors, actresses, singers, smoking weed and it's
really cool.
You parents out there, make sure your kids know from day one, freaking drugs ain't cool.
It's not good.
and it kills.
Just want to let you know.
This is not coming from a personal thing.
I just read the news about Lisa Marie Presley dying.
And I've never, oh, I actually met her once.
I was at the Hilton Wiceloa in Big Island of Hawaii
and she ate dinner with her ex-husband and her kids.
One table away from me, didn't say a word to her.
But I've seen video of her in recent days.
and, well, you go look and you decide.
And then dies and the heart.
And you know what happens when you do a lot of drugs to your hearts and your
livers and your kidneys and things like that.
And I'd give it even money that if they did an autopsy and it'll be another one of these.
And you know about, let's see, what was it, Heath Ledger?
Who's that great actor?
Man, I forgot his name.
And there's been a bunch.
make sure you grab your kids
show them some videos
of people that look really good
and then started doing meth
you know they have
articles they have
you know advertisements
showing people before meth
and then after
show them the statistics
these celebrities and these singers
they're ass clowns
that glorify drugs
they're ass clowns
in the strongest sense.
I know marijuana pretty well
and for them to think,
oh, no big deal.
Go screw yourself.
It's all about the money.
Oh, you know,
cigarettes, bad, marijuana good.
Bull crap.
So I just want to let you know,
just when I see this Lisa Marie Presley thing
that died at a very young age,
I give it even money, at least.
It ain't cool.
There's nothing cool about it.
And death ain't cool.
Am I being a little preachy?
That's okay.
I'm going to listen back to this and I think it's wise words.
You know what's cool?
The opposite.
Anyway, I just had to bring that up.
I hope you don't mind.
We'll get into the market wrap in a minute, but some of your questions, Gary,
did you see what Bitcoin's done in the last few days?
Yes, we have.
What do I think of that?
Well, as we have said, we always tell you at any time they can rally these things up.
It's considered an asset.
We think it's more of an ass, but anything can move higher just based on buying.
And that's what's happened.
And we also look at the technical see these things.
Once it broke back above the 50-day moving average on Monday, it's made a nice move.
No argument.
Where it stops don't know.
We let you decide.
By the way, it was up 31% percent.
this week. The GBT. It's still is still down 66% from its yearly high. Where it goes,
we don't know. And remember, it's just, you never know if somebody's going to come in and buy
based on it moving. Look what they did with Bath and Beyond, which, by the way, any day,
I don't know if they are or not. There's a decent chance they're gone. And people,
are speculating on it. So the worry in these markets is, boy, people are speculating already.
And as we've told you, all bare markets at the end of them washed out all the froth and speculation.
Now, maybe things are different now, and I wouldn't be surprised if they are, because of fast communications and social media.
It's a different world out there. We're just not thrilled. And we've highlighted during the bare market,
when froth and speculation happened and within days markets topped.
But as we've said to you with this market, this move has been different.
It's much better.
Underlying strength, advanced declines,
much better than any other rally we've had.
Because markets have had more time and the bare market elongated.
Whether or not we've seen, well, let me put it best.
There's definitely a decent amount of things that have seen their lows of the bare market.
Not so sure about a lot of weak stuff.
And that's not a reach.
Caterpillar is at an all-time high.
The London footsie is at a yearly high.
No argument there.
And the theme, more improvement today in a day where markets are very overbought
and open badly.
Remember, when you open badly,
it gives the sellers a chance to press it.
They couldn't press it for three minutes.
And we drifted up all day,
and in the last 20 minutes, another leg up.
And guess what we say about the close of the markets?
Bullish phases close well, bearish phases close poorly.
Up next, the market wrap.
Other questions answered.
I'm Gary.
This is the one only investor's edge.
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We're listening to.
America is talking.
Investors Edge.
The crowd is just on his feet here.
He's a Cinderella boy.
With Gary Colbomb.
It comes highly recommended.
You're going to feel better if you talk to him.
Hey, welcome once again to Investors Edge.
Thanks for being with us today.
Let me add another thing.
So you had these CEOs of the banks come out.
And a couple of them were talking about recessions.
Let me repeat.
There's no way.
If the market knows what it's doing, knows what it's saying.
No way.
Not with Caterpillar at New Highs.
Now, why would the banks, why would the brokers think recession?
Well, their industry may be in recession.
They're firing people.
Why would their industry be in recession?
Well, there's less mortgages, even though interest rates have been coming down.
There's definitely less IPOs.
they're making all kinds of fees. There's no SPACs where they just money grabbed. Private equity
is slowed down big time as valuations have come down. Crypto business is shot the hell, though
we can wake up and with Bitcoin up some this week, you never know. Juicees get flowing pretty
easily these days, which does not thrill, but we deal in reality. So just letting you know we don't listen
to a word they say, believe it or not, we got to recognize that they're selling their own book,
talking their own book. We really think the market's smarter everybody. We really do.
Remember, at the highs, we were talking inflation as yields were skyrocketing. Nobody else was.
Six months later, they started talking about it. A year later, holy crap. In July of last year,
guess what? We were the first to say we think inflation is peaked and we got ignored. For some reason, we're like, we're not as famous as Dr. Doom, whatever that guy's name is, Rubini. We're not as famous as some of these machas that go out there. We made a major call after being completely right on the upside inflation and nobody gives a crap, which is fine. We'll just keep doing what we're doing. And now everybody's talking inflation down. Duh.
And really all you had to do in July was oil topped, a bunch of commodities topped.
You knew that.
And I'm getting asked now, what do I think of inflation?
It's come down decently.
I do not know yet, have no feel yet on if it's going to continue down.
Don't know.
And I certainly don't know the whims of the idiots at the Fed and how far they're going to raise rates that way.
What we do know is the 10-year yield was up a little bit today.
It's down to 3.511 from 4.33, and that's good news.
So I just wanted to mention that about these buzzards that are trying to tell you everything.
Remember, God bless and Jamie Diamond, one of the greatest financial minds in decades,
within a day of the low in October said we're going down another 20%.
So just remember, these people, I don't know if they're that great market people.
They're very good bookies.
Just remember what these banks are.
they use other people's money, your money to invest their way, and make big bucks in between.
You ever go see what you're paying on your credit card?
Let's see, we'll pay you 2 and 3% on your money, but we're going to charge you 19% on our lending you.
Oh, and by the way, we're going to tell you to pay the minimum on your credit card.
So if you keep paying the minimum, you'll be paid off in 41 years.
and you're going to pay us a lot of interest.
Thank you so much.
So we can be in these great A plus buildings across the globe.
By the way, those aren't jokes.
This is truisms.
Go look at the small print, the print on your credit card that Superman couldn't even read,
about how much they charge.
Shouldn't it be in big print?
The big print should say we are going to suck the life out of it.
you at 19% and then we're going to have this little line that says minimum payment and it should
say underneath that oh by the way if you make the minimum payment you'll pay paid off in 41 years
anyway that's the banks uh we got asked about well the short squeeze stocks and the no sales biotex
would i ever play them personally yeah i trade them i would if i see a real
good entry, but it'll be a hit and run. I would never buy him for clients. Heck no. I don't mind
playing them. Trading them. But Gary, aren't they crap? Yeah. But if I see a perfect breakout in
something, and I know for a fact when they move these things, I'll tend to, you know, scalp them.
I wouldn't throw it all into the ocean there, but you could get, I would. Not so sure if you should.
I got asked about Apple CEO, in case you to know, Tim Cook is cutting his salary,
his yearly salary from like $400 billion to $200 billion.
That's sarcasm.
And he's going to kind of attach what he makes based on the stock price,
which I think is a scam.
You know why?
Apple can decide to buy back a crap load of stock,
which raises earnings per share and raises stock price.
That doesn't thrill me too much.
what it should be based on his performance, not on the stock price.
Earnings growth, sales growth, business.
And by the way, I was one that said, oh, I'm really worried that Steve Jobs passed away and this new guy's coming in.
He's done a terrific job.
Hasn't created anything new, but has done a terrific job by keeping it moving.
and I was also when we're saying
why would anybody pay $1,000 for a phone?
I did.
I also used to say, wait a minute, eventually
they're going to upgrade and nobody's going to buy the next one.
People keep buying the next one.
I stopped saying there's a shelf life.
We may end up with the Apple iPhone 450 years down the road.
I was asked about China, just in Fuego.
Persistent.
It's the best way I can put it.
had another good day today.
The thought processes
has been so far down for so long
and that China is
China's opening up.
They have a bazillion people with COVID.
Hearing a lot of people dying,
but they just decided
we can't put ourselves in bankruptcy.
So they've opened up,
but you can fly there, people can fly out,
but hell, I ain't gone there again.
Gary is done with China.
And that's a shame because I had a blast
when I went there.
It's fantastic.
I still say aliens built the Great Wall of China, by the way.
I don't know how anybody could have done that.
All right, today's market wrap, brought to you by Investment-Dashmottles.com.
That's Jim Rohrbach, one of the great market timers.
No gray areas with the man you're either in or out of the market with as proprietary indicators.
Go check it out.
Investment-dashmodels.com.
Dout 112 after being down 270.
The S&P 15, NASDAQ 78, NASDAQ, 18.
transports down 38 advanced declines
2615 on the New York
2715 on the NASDAQ 2815 on the NASDAQ
and it was bad early
institutions are still in there
internals
best week since the high of the market
in my opinion
and we've had better index rallies
than this last six days
actually much better index rallies
this one was much better than the rest on an individual type basis.
Just stay tuned.
We have nailed every top of every rally within a day or two over the last 15, 18 months.
Is this one different?
Could this be the real, real bottom that does not get taken back?
Sure.
It has a much better opportunity this time than the others.
That said, we still have the belief.
Defense stocks have topped, managed care of top, a bunch of oils of top, though there are a few oils that are in shape.
And there's a bunch of other areas that are still not in great shape.
But overall, the floor has lifted.
It's the best way I can explain it.
And European market, foreign markets better than ours right now.
Up next.
This, that and the other thing and whatever else.
I'm Gary. This is the one the only investor's edge.
This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card.
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for less than you expect.
Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step
closer to your next dream destination.
Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide.
The Capital One Venture X card.
What's in your wallet?
Terms apply.
Lounge Access is subject to.
to change. See Capital One.com for details. This episode is brought to you by Spreaker. The platform
responsible for a rapidly spreading condition known as podcast brain. Symptoms include buying microphones
you don't need, explaining RSS feeds to confused relatives, and saying things like,
sorry, I can't talk right now, I'm editing audio. If this sounds familiar, you're probably
already a podcaster. The good news is Spreaker makes the whole process simple. You record your show,
upload it once, and Spreaker distributes it everywhere people listen.
Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and about a dozen apps your cousin's swears are the next big thing.
Even better, Spreaker helps you monetize your show with ads, meaning your podcast might someday pay for,
well, more microphones.
Start your show today at spreeker.com.
Spreaker, because if you're going to talk to yourself for an hour, you might as well publish it.
This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card.
Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual annual.
Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles
on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access
to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms
apply. Lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details. You're listening to
What are we waiting for? Well, what are you waiting for? One, two, ready, go.
The most important part of tonight, besides Friday Night's Smackdown,
tonight is the mega-millions.
If one winner wins, after tax, should be around $450 million.
That's after-tax, which means you can take that money, get 4% riskless, which is about
17 million a year. If your handsome and buff toast wins, we wish you all a good life. No,
really. I'm gone. I freely tell you that. As much as I love doing what I do, what are you
supposed to do after that? Seriously, what are you supposed to do? I would take half of it and put
it in a foundation and give it away, I would get my family in big time, and I travel the world,
seeing every part of the world, which I've done a lot already. That's what I'd be doing.
And trade. I'd still do that. But 14, what I say to you? A 17 million tax-free. I'm not tax-free,
but 17 million a year, riskless.
I'd be good.
Anyway, good luck to you.
I bought 10.
And if you can't afford it, don't do it,
because it's easier to get hit by lightning twice
the day after next at the same time at the same place.
Not kidding.
Crypto.com eliminates 20% of its staff, as we told you.
All these crypto things shot to hell.
Carvana's cutting workers, of course.
And we were wrong big time on Carvana and then ended up being right.
I've never understood the business model and the stock still soared during the bubble.
But it's now crashed.
And we'll see whether it ends up being a going concern or not.
I don't know.
But I've never understood the model.
I really have not.
And then I noticed they were selling car.
They were losing money on selling cars.
That's my belief.
That's my opinion.
And then you had the thing with use car prices going crazy.
Anyway, we'll see.
I mentioned Apple's Tim Cook.
I had to mention California.
You know what I've never understood the media, you know, the scams.
This guy, governor, is destroying the state.
with his utter stupidity,
moronic governance,
massively high taxes.
They now have a $22 billion deficit
with those high taxes.
And I'm just telling you what,
50% of students proficient in reading,
population has shrunk 113,000,
poverty risen to 11.6%.
and people keep voting this moron in.
I still don't understand the New York City thing.
In the New York, they keep voting these morons in
that have no regard for the citizens.
The district attorney for New York City should be fired immediately.
Not until his family is mugged
or something happened to them.
Will he do something?
But I'm just reading on this.
You all you people in California, man,
and of course California is,
Beautiful.
And you go to areas that are in great shape, but I'm talking about the concentrated areas.
My friends who live in L.A. send me pictures constantly.
It looks third world in a bunch of areas.
And not just one or two.
San Francisco, third world in a bunch of areas.
People are scared crapless to walk a bunch of streets.
In California.
And you know, the glitterottery don't speak up.
The celebrities don't speak up because it's my side.
And they just go to their Beverly Hills mansions that are completely gated and don't have to worry about any of this.
What do they care?
How the rest of the peeps live.
I just had to mention that because I got to tell you, it's happening in Portland.
I get from my Portland peeps email after email.
get pictures sent, and they keep voting in these same idiots. And as I said to you, it's very simple.
If you incentivize criminality, the criminals are going to continue to commit crimes. If you scare
the crap out of criminals, when they start knowing that hell, I'm going to do five to ten,
they stop doing the crimes. No, really, they do. Anyway, I have to bring this up because
the more big cities that get in trouble,
that's going to be bad on the economy
because you've got the big cities
are big part of the economy across the country.
I get emails about Chicago
in certain areas, the Wild Wild West,
and yet they keep voting in this doofus running the joint in Chicago.
I mean, when are people going to wake up and say
that I want to be safe again?
And I don't care if it's a Democrat or Republican,
somebody that's actually going to do something about crime.
And it's not hard.
It's just logical.
If you scare the crap out of the criminals with logical penalties for their crimes,
crime will drop.
They ain't going to drop all the way because criminals are criminals.
I'm reading about businesses shutting, people leaving, on and on.
Ain't happened here where I live.
Have a great three-day week.
weekend. Drive carefully. When you get home, do like we do. Quite simple. Make sure you hug your family.
Make sure you hug your children. They will feel better. You will feel better. I promise.
We're off Monday. It'll be the best of Gary. I love saying that. We'll be back Tuesday.
Same time. Stay well. Stay safe. Have a great one. Thanks for joining. Bye-bye.
This has been Investor's Edge with Gary Coltbaum on BizTalk. To listen to Pastor
episodes or to get in contact with Gary, go to GaryK.com. That's GaryKK.com.
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