Investor's Edge with Gary Kaltbaum - The Queen!
Episode Date: September 8, 2022Follow Gary on GaryK.com or http://garykaltbaum.com...
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Investor's Edge with Gary Coltbaum. Straight talk about you and your money. Now from the BizTalk
Studios, here is Gary Coltbaum. And welcome once again to Investors Edge. I'm Gary Coltbaum,
your host. A thanks of being with us today. Glad you here, ladies and gentlemen, happy that you
are listening. It's Thursday. It's the 8th September, 2022. Hope you're having a good day.
we start this show out with some bad news.
The Queen of England has passed away at the age of 96.
Now, those who have listened to this show for many years know.
I have an affinity for the UK as I've been there many, many times.
But I must tell you, I think I've only spent, let's say, in total,
probably 90 days of my life there.
But I am sad today.
I know what the British people feel about the queen.
And I know there's others that, oh, they're spending money on this and the royalty and this and that.
But man, oh, man, it is big stuff over there.
And I don't appreciate the reasoning and why because I'm not British and don't live there.
but as somebody who loves that place and any excuse to go to the UK,
I'll be back in November just because I'm taking my son to Normandy
and where am I going to fly through and stay for a day and a half?
London, of course.
But anyway, a life well-lived, 96 years old,
carried herself the way I wish, are scummy.
leaders don't carry themselves. And you know what I mean by that. Joe Biden calling half the
country semi-fascist. Donald Trump did the same thing, by the way. I don't know if you know that.
I know the rights he all up p-oed about what Biden say, but Trump said the same thing. Obama did
the same thing. And some nastier than others, the Republican side has some real.
weirdo nasties on it, the Democratic side has the extreme socialist Marxist maniacs.
Now let's get rid of the police. Yet this woman, this queen, handled herself in a certain way
for how many years? 70? And as I've said to you on this show, you know what we need again?
We need Reagan. Take the politics out for a second. He laughed at all.
off. They were ripping him to shred saying that he had dementia. He's a moron. He's an idiot. He's
stupid. And you know what he did? He laughed the whole thing off. Cut a joke here and there.
Mostly just put his head down and did his job. But no, you know who I'm talking about on both
sides of the aisle? They're sick in the mind. They're not leaders. You know what they're? They're
like Eddie Haskell. Ever watch Leave It the Beaver? They're the Eddie Haskell's of politics.
Some of them are the ones that in the high school, in the gymnasium,
if two kids were fighting on the basketball floor,
they'd be on the sideline yelling, hit him, hit them.
Anyway, our condolences.
This is big stuff.
You can read about it.
They go through 10 days of morning,
but that's not going to end after 10 days.
It is now King Charles immediately takes over.
I guess you call it the throne.
And we'll have more on it.
Well, let's see, today's Thursday, tomorrow we'll do more of it.
Anyway, we'll leave it at that.
As you know, this is a show about you and everything that affects you and your money in the markets and all that stuff in between.
There is no better technicians of the market than us on earth getting the big picture right.
You know, it's not easy.
The short term, the bare market rallies, the countertrend moves, the intraday stuff.
Just want to get the big picture main trend right.
And sometimes very tough the main trend because you're going back and forth and you just drop 10 to 12% on the NASDAQ in New York in the last 14 trading days before yesterday.
And then we had a good day as oil prices started plunging.
And then you come in today.
Remember what I said yesterday?
I think we're going to get some more upside from here.
That 3,900 looks like support.
I can tell you I thought I was wrong on the open today.
I thought I was 100% wrong.
I thought the market was about to roll over again.
And then we ramped up and then at 1130, I said I was right.
We'll get some more upside from here.
And then at 1225, I thought I was wrong as the market got yonked to the downside.
and then the rest of the day,
whip it all over the place
to where with 15 minutes to go,
markets were flat.
I think the last I looked,
the Dow was flat, the NASDAQ was flat.
And you know what happened in the last 15 minutes?
You know what happened, right?
The Dow got a bunch back
to make it a good date in just 15 minutes.
So you didn't even need to open the market all day.
You could have just open.
the market at 345. That was today. The whole move today was 345 to 4 o'clock. That's how paper
thin and how crazy it is. But when all is said and done, it's the outcome that matters. It's the
close that matters. C-L-O-S-E. Just in case that sound like C-L-O-T-H-E. So we'll talk about that.
and we think we're pretty darn specific here.
We think we have some specificity today,
even though the action was paper thin and insane today.
But first, if you do not get this radio show in your city,
we'll post it at garyk.com.
We'll also post it on our Twitter feed.
If you don't follow us on Twitter, you should.
Just go to Twitter, put our name in.
We're very sarcastic.
our sarcasm is over the top and you know who it's for you can email me just be nice you know
just be nice i got one email that says he hates jews i get that every now and then okay fine
what can i tell you so today's market rap brought to by investment dash models dot com that's jim
morback one of the great market timers no gray areas with the man you're either in or out of the market with
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Well, I can give you the 345 number, right?
Now, I'll give you the final.
Dow up 193.
And it was all the last 15 minutes, not kidding.
Boom, boom, boom.
S&P up 26.
NASDAQ 70, NASDAQ 161.
All in the final 15 minutes.
The socks up 46, semiconductors, still laboring.
The transports were down.
Advanced declines.
nothing special, 2317 on New York, 2617 on the NASDAQ.
New low, still 243, new highs, only 63.
And I must tell you, in the new high category, just not a lot.
Ready for the new highs?
Give me a sec.
Coming up.
On the New York, I got a couple of utilities.
I have a bank out of India.
I got progressive insurance insurance, BJ's wholesale.
I've been telling you about the waste management companies,
Republic Service and Waste Connections.
It's about in on New York.
No, not kidding.
First solar, end phase, two solar companies.
Surreptop the therapeutics, SRPT, they lose money,
Ulta Beauty.
I think we mentioned that.
That's it.
On the NASDAQ?
Hmm.
I'm still looking.
That's it on the NASDAQ.
Just so you know, like first solar trades on both,
N-phase energy trades on both.
But there's nothing else.
That's your new high list.
That's how tough the market is.
It's a pain in the you know what.
But we want to repeat when all was said and done today
in the last 15 minutes, boom.
And that's all that matters to us,
because when we scan tonight,
does not matter where it happened during the day.
It was just a very, very wicked day
And we ended up with upside testing from yesterday
I thought I was wrong on the open today
I thought I was right at 1130
I thought it was wrong at 1230
And it looks like the thought process was correct for right now
Tomorrow is another day
Up next
What of importance
Move today
I'm Gary this is the one only investor's edge
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computing. At IBM research, what we always do is answer what is the future of computing,
whether it's coming up with new algorithms, coming up with better AI, coming up with quantum,
or coming up with just how do different accelerators go together. It's our DNA to answer the
question of what is the future. Isn't it a perfect problem for IBM because you kind of need to have
a legacy of building stuff? Yes.
Building actual physical machines. Yeah, it's why I came to IBM. I wanted the experience,
the culture of building hard things that others have not done before.
Where do you imagine we are in the timeline of this technology? There will come a point
when it will mature, right?
My cell phone is a mature technology at this point.
How far are we from that point with quantum?
By 2029, we'll build the first fault-tolerant quantum computer.
That is one that can run a very, very large, large problem.
To learn how IBM is building the future of computing,
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It's time to switch on the integrator units and get the brain cells working.
You're listening to.
Hey, this problem.
It's to be fun.
Investors Edge.
The last bastion of quality programming.
With Gary Coltbaum.
It doesn't get better than this.
And welcome once again to Investors Edge.
I was supposed to be on Fox News at 4 o'clock today,
but got, you know, knocked out because they're going wall-to-wall with the Queen's death.
Tomorrow, I should be on Fox Business between noon and two with Neil Cavuto,
but who knows what they're going to decide to do?
this is quite of import
by the way
I just didn't mention that
there was one time I was in London
I was at Buckingham Palace
and the queen passed in a car
if I tell you people were crying
at just the sight of her
this was about 10 years ago
just the sight of her.
And I've told you that whenever I get,
there's a subject, I'll get neck deep in it.
I still remember the Iraq War that all this talk about the tribes and
persmurgers and all that.
I went neck deep to learn everything that was going on.
And there was a point in time during the middle of the Iraq War,
I came to the conclusion, we're going to get nothing out of this thing.
It was a huge mistake.
And it turned out to be.
And the thought process was when all was said and done when we leave, it's just going to go back to the way it is.
And that is.
Just so, you know, we just left Afghanistan.
Guess what happened?
The Taliban immediately told all the women to go kiss off.
And they're back treated like dirt because that's how it goes.
So I learned everything about Iraq.
People can ask me about Iraq and the war and everything.
I can answer just almost everything.
I'm going to read up now.
And you know who inspired me today?
On Fox News, Martha McCallum, she used to do business television.
I think she was at CNBC before she came to Fox, and now she has our own show at 3 o'clock.
I'm listening to her report today, and you can tell this woman was not reading Promptor
that she knew everything and anything about the monarchy and the history of it.
That's going to be my next new thing.
I'm going to spend the whole weekend learning about the history of the last 100 years in Britain.
That's going to be my new thing.
When I want to learn something, I go insane on it.
And I got to tell, you know, this whole thing, I'm a Fox News business contributor.
I've been there quite a while.
And I know the, on the opinion stuff.
And I know it's very, what's the word I'm looking for?
If you're on one side, you hate, if you're on the other side, you love.
the polarization. Let me tell you the news people on Fox News. Take away the opinion side. Second to none.
Just brilliance at covering the subjects that they cover. And you know, I start with Neil Cavuto and stuff like that. But just absolutely. Chad Pergram, I guess he's the congressional guy in all anything DC. The guy's the human Google.
on everything that goes on in DC.
Very proud to be a part of that.
Big time.
Take away the opinion side.
Got to put that to the side.
Because opinions are opinions or opinions or opinions.
On either side.
Anyway, I just had to say that because, man,
Martha McCallum today,
impressed the living hell out of me today.
Really that good.
I rated it a big wow.
All right.
so as we have taught you and told you that there is a certain line in the markets that defines good and bad
this is not my opinion this is the physicality of markets it's how it works i'm stunned that more
people don't follow it don't care to follow it i get made fun of no really i get people
just so you know that are fully invested bull or bear markets
that are getting near, you know what's handed to them in the last year,
make fun of me because I talk the 50-day moving average.
They laugh at me and they openly laugh at me.
Some with disgust.
And if I try to explain to him, your stock or your sector
or your area of the market cannot go up unless you're above it,
they don't care.
The fundamentals are blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah,
I'm thinking to myself, wait a minute.
Wait a minute.
I'm actually telling these people that there is no way your stock
that you own a ton of can go up
if it's trading below the 50-day moving average.
And only bad can happen trading below.
Nothing good.
They still don't care.
I have debated people on TV where I will explain there's no way this thing can go up.
And they're like, what are you talking about?
And then I try to explain it and they treat it as mumbo jumbo.
If I said to somebody, you know, there's a lot of lightning and thunder out there.
Don't go outside and it's right overhead.
that's life and death.
Not obeying the 50-day moving average is not life and death.
But in the market, it's equivalent, taken away the life or death part.
It's that important.
Today, of import, the big financials, which topped out in January,
finally made a decent turn when the market bottomed in July and rallied up,
but just came down hard in this 10 to 12% drop in the market in the last 14 days notwithstanding yesterday.
Broke back pretty decently above the 50-day moving average.
I'm pretty sure that's what helped markets along because the big money notices when something like that happens.
That's number one.
Now keep in mind, in an ascending market, just think this over.
Picture it in your mind.
The 50-day moving average is ascending.
Price is above it and moving along with it, pulling back into it and holding it.
And just remember, the 50-day moving averages, it's the price.
It's taken the last 50 days, adding up divided by 50, the closes, and you get something smoothed out.
And then there are markets that are trying to.
turn. Up next, we'll explain that dynamic. I think we'll explain it without you pulling your hair out.
I'm Gary. This is the one only investor's edge.
Hello, hello. I'm Malcolm Gladwell, host of Smart Talks with IBM. I recently spoke with IBM's new
director of research, Jake Mbata. We discussed his vision for the future of quantum computing.
At IBM research, what we always do is answer what is the future of computing,
whether it's coming up with new algorithms, coming up with better AI, coming up with quantum,
or coming up with just how do different accelerators go together.
It's our DNA to answer the question of what is the future.
Isn't it a perfect problem for IBM because you kind of need to have a legacy of building stuff?
Yes.
Building actual physical machines.
Yeah, it's why I came to IBM.
I wanted the experience, the culture of building high.
hard things that others have not done before.
Where do you imagine we are in the timeline of this technology?
There will come a point when it will mature.
Right?
Yeah.
My cell phone is a mature technology at this point.
How far are we from that point with Conton?
By 2029, we'll build the first fault-tolerant quantum computer.
That is one that can run a very, very large, large problem.
To learn how IBM is building the future of computing,
visit IBM.com
slash quantum.
Success starts with your drive
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APU helps you gain the skills
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who never stop.
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APU will fuel the journey.
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You're listening to.
America is talking.
Investors edge.
He's got to be pleased with that.
The crowd is just on his feet here.
He's a Cinderella boy.
With Gary Colbomb.
It comes highly recommended.
You're going to feel better if you talk to him.
Okay.
So imagine you have a line going from
to two on a watch.
or even 830 to 230, which is not as steep to the upside.
And imagine price is ascending along with that 50-day moving average,
above it, pulling back, holding, keep going.
But then imagine you're in a big bear market.
Well, at a big bear market, the 50-day moving average,
since it moves with price, is descending.
it's heading down from 10 to 4 on a watch and price is beneath it and every time it rallies up it gets towards that declining 50 day and sells off
but then finally gets back above it well now that you're back above it every day that goes by that you are above it
takes away one of the 50 days that you were below it,
flattens out that 50-day moving average and starts it turning up.
Well, with the financials, it started flattening out in mid-July,
rallied up nicely above it and just pulled back towards it in the last few days.
Today, you had that really good day moving off of it.
Does that mean tomorrow?
It doesn't croak, no.
But odds favor, and that's what we do here, odds favor.
That was of import today.
And it was really strong most of the day, even when the market was coming in.
But when all said and done, as we said, that's all we care about.
That was a good move in financials today.
Still way off the highs of the top and the bull,
and still down neatly from the recent high of just four weeks ago.
But we said yesterday we thought a low was being put in, but you need other things to happen.
I think the close of today solidified things today.
And I'm saying that telling you, I thought I was wrong on the open today.
I thought I was right at 1130.
I thought I was wrong at 1230.
I wasn't even short 3.45 when we were sinking again.
That's how paper thin and weird the market was trading today.
But again, when all was set and done, we start with the financials.
There was also a slew of stocks that had pulled into the 50-day moving average along with the financials.
And by the way, the financials, J.P. Morgan, Goldman Sachs, things like that.
Just about every one of those names bounced off the 50-day that we identified yesterday and held.
some moving off
decently
a couple of percent
two three percent off
does that mean
they don't just croak tomorrow
no
but odds favor
we got a little counter trend
going here now
how far
don't know
how long
don't know
I saw somebody on TV
that they say
well we think we're going to
have a week September, but a strong October, but be careful about November, but we should end up
good in December. This is from somebody who's been bullish all the way down. It's amazing what
people will predict. We don't know. We don't need to know. You know all this talk about targets
at the end of the year and markets. It's all bull crap. It's all a stupid guessing game.
There's too many variables. Let's look at the last year. The variables are still.
stupidity and morons. The variable of a war. Inflation. Deflation. Top. You know what I'm talking about.
So, after thinking I was wrong twice today and then right twice today, think we got a counter-tren
rally of unknown price and time here. And we'll see where it wants to go. Simple as that.
Oil prices were up a little today. Yields were up today. So it's good to see the market up with yields up.
That's a little bit of a change, but not a biggie.
It's only one day.
The sticking out was the financials.
After that, just, how do I put this?
A little at the close.
A decent feel today.
There are some days you're up 193 and it doesn't feel that good.
It's a decent feel today.
Oil's bounced a little bit, not much.
Still on the weak side.
Commodities, weakish.
I will tell you, coal stocks look like they have topped out for now.
All the down and out high beta names that have just been crushed again, they had a decent day today.
And I see one of these security software companies up decently in the aftermarket, so maybe a couple of those things will move tomorrow.
We'll see.
Some markets are easy.
Some markets are hard.
This bear market has been easy for us.
The counter-trend rallies are a pain in the room.
rear. Not that we lose money, not that we make money. They're just a pain in the rear.
Because you don't know how long they last, how far they go. And they're very wippy.
You know what wippy is? Whippy. But when I'm all done, I see Black Rock holds the 50
day and rallies offer today. Bank America does it. Goldman Sachs does it. J.P. Morgan does it.
There's your financials. And then we go to the rest of the areas.
and see what happened there.
That said, there's still a ton below the 50-day moving average.
I can tell you on a day that was up today, Apple was still down a buck and a half today,
even though it was down three at one time when the market was weak.
That's interesting.
We'll see what Tamar brings.
And as we scan just all the semiconductors below the 50-day, the semis had a good day,
and they'd probably they hit a little bit of a low, though they're very weak.
So we build up this little weight of the evidence.
that 3,900 on the S&P, even though it's a few days of support, looks like, that's your defense
for right now.
If at any time it's broke, oh, we're going to go right down to the June Lowe's.
I think for this second, it's out of the question that it's going to break.
out of the question.
That's my guess.
Just based on what I'm seeing.
And we say this knowing we're in a big news-driven environment.
And notice I said, for now, what we do now is we see where this nascent bounce slash rally
of 3,900 S&P starts showing some serious selling.
did it twice today but when all was said and done outcome that's all we're interested in
how did we close the day that's what fills up the charts the close of the day we're getting
lots of question on housing from you guys and gals lots of questions so what we're going to do in a minute
is guess what? We are going to go over again the process and how things work, supply and demand
in the housing market. We nailed it in 07. We nailed this drop. The only thing we don't know
is it going to be a real one of real consequence. Jury's still out. But on
a daily basis we can follow certain things, not somebody's opinion, that'll tell us everything
we need to know. And I'm going to give you an example of this morning. That's up next.
On this, the one and only investors' edge. Hello, hello, I'm Malcolm Gladwell, host of the podcast
Smart Talks with IBM. I recently sat down with IBM's chairman and CEO, Arvin Krishna. And I asked him,
how can companies use AI to its fullest potential to create smarter business?
My one advice to them, pick areas you can scale.
Don't pick the shiny little toys on the side.
For example.
If anybody has more than 10% of what they had for customer service 10 years ago,
they're already five years behind it.
If anybody is not using AI to make their developers who write software 30% more productive today,
with the goal of being 70% more productive.
Yeah.
Wow.
So we are not asking our clients to be the first experiment on it.
We say, you can leverage what we did.
We're happy to bring out all our learnings, including what needs to change in the process,
because the biggest change is not technology, is getting people to accept that there's a different way to do things.
To listen to the full conversation, visit IBM.com slash smarttalks.
Success starts with your drive, and American Public University is here to fuel it.
With affordable tuition and over 200 flexible online programs, APU helps you gain the skills and confidence to move forward.
Whether you're changing careers, starting fresh, or pursuing a lifelong passion,
our programs are designed for people who never stop.
You bring the fire, APU will fuel the journey.
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You're listening to.
What are we waiting for?
Well, what are you waiting for?
One, two, ready, go.
Action!
Did I not mention that football season starts tonight?
You know what that means?
The year starts tonight.
I believe that, let's see, I think Buffalo plays the ranch.
I have Josh Allen, the Buffalo quarterback in my fantasy league, so I start tonight also.
I have nobody on the Rams.
And by the way, the Rams did not win the Super Bowl.
The Bengals won the Super Bowl.
Just letting you know, the ref took the game away from Cincinnati.
And I'm surprised there hasn't been more yelling and screaming about it.
The game was over.
They called a phantom call and took the game away on a fourth down call.
they are lucky it wasn't the giants that they called that on.
For a very long time, you were hearing housing prices were going up.
In some areas, insanely, you were reading about people putting up their home for $400,000,
and somebody would say okay, and then somebody would come in, I'll bid $420.
No, $4.40, no $4.80, no $5.20.
And that went on for a while.
And why was that?
because interest rates weren't zero.
The 10 year was like at 1.
What was mortgage rates at like 3 in change?
I believe that now, 6 and a half now, right?
So it was easy to get mortgages because they were so cheap.
It was like free money.
But then something happened.
Affordability hit the wall because that's the problem with bubbles.
Eventually, they pop.
eventually the rubber band can only go so far before it snaps.
So you had an affordability problem.
And then interest rates start going up.
The double whammy, the one-two punch.
So not only affordability was a problem,
but mortgage payments, I think I've heard,
based on interest rates, are up like 80, 90% versus what they were.
And then the markets got hit, and the coins got hit.
And the bond market got hit.
We ended up with somewhat of a reverse wealth effect.
What happens first?
Buyers stop bidding over each other.
That's number one.
Number two.
And it's pretty simplistic.
Everybody who puts a price up to sell is putting them up
in fantasy land prices.
Nobody wants to pay those prices anymore.
So all of a sudden,
people start to see that houses aren't moving as much.
I better get mine up there too.
And then more and more and more inventory shows up.
And then the word gets out.
There's a lot more inventory.
And then people that were investing and not living,
start to get all worried.
And then the first shoe drops,
a price is lowered for a house in a neighborhood.
And even with that lowered price, it still doesn't sell.
There is your start of lower prices.
Because the next person recognizes,
oh man, they got a, they were at what, 500,
and they lowered it to 450?
I'm still at 520.
And I have the same neighborhood,
same house,
with a pool,
same everything.
If they can't sell it at 450,
I certainly are not going to be able to sell it at 520.
Guess what the 520 does.
And that's what is known as Game On.
And since then,
prices keep coming down
because nobody's buying
at the fantasy prices.
And I can tell you here in central
Florida, a lot of
people have lowered their prices to still
fantasy prices.
Remember, we had some
Eiffel Tower moves.
Straight up, the needle, up.
And they don't recognize
it's going to come straight
down. And that's what's
starting to happen in many areas now.
And we're seeing
all the evidence.
Inventory skyrocketing.
prices coming down, pending sales not getting done, days to sell never end, and on these websites,
it shows all that.
And when I go on the websites of housing in certain areas, I put in highest and on down to see
what's going on at the highest levels, and then I click on the word newest to see how many new homes
are coming on. And I'm just noticing on a daily basis in many areas, every day more and more
homes coming for sale. Now, we'll have some people getting fed up. I can't sell this thing,
and I'm not lowering prices, I'm just taking it off. But the process is now in hand. And I'm hearing
some people say it's going to be no big deal, I'm not so sure of that, especially in the bubbled
up areas that went to fantasy prices. One of my homes, I sold at the high. It had gone up 40% in
six months, and it reminded me what happened back in 2008 when I didn't sell. And guess what's
happening around where I sold? Inventory! Not one of my homes.
is one of my real estate. I don't have two homes, but I have real estate. So just give you an
idea how it works. We'll keep your breast of it. But I will tell you this. Rates higher?
Bad news. Simple as that. And that's what we're going to watch. Inventory skyrocketing.
Bad news. Both to be watched. Stay tuned. Going to get interesting. Hope it doesn't get bad.
a great evening drive carefully when you get home to like we do it's quite simple make sure you
hug your family hug your children they will feel better you will feel better i promise
until tomorrow have a great evening don't forget i'll be on with cavuto between 12 and two
tomorrow and fox business network and until tomorrow take care all thanks for joining us bye bye
this has been investors edge with gary cult bomb on biz talk to listen to past episodes or to get
in contact with gary go to gary k dot com that's gary k
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