Investor's Edge with Gary Kaltbaum - The seas were angry [03.12.2026]

Episode Date: March 12, 2026

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And welcome once again to Investors Edge. I'm Gary Coltbaum, your host. A thanks for being with us today. Glad you here, ladies and gentlemen. Happy that you are listening. It is Thursday, March 12th, 20206. Oh, I wish I had better things to tell you. I wish.

In case you don't know, this is serious talk on everything that affects you. We'll do the markets, the economy, your job, your industry, the war, the oil, the fertilizers, all the news out there. And it's not great. We will cover that too. And if you do not get this show in your city, we'll post it at garyk.com. We'll also post it on our X feed. And if you don't follow us on X, you should. all you got to do is go there and put our name in.

We're very charming and sarcastic at the same time. If you want to email us, just be nice. No, really. You can disagree with us 1,000%. We don't mind that. We'll respect your right back unless you're a fan of Hamas. Then we got a little problem. Speaking of that

Some schmuck Drove his car Into a synagogue in Michigan And basically Put himself on fire And then You know shot and he's dead And nobody was even in the synagogue

I don't know what the hell You know we Have Race Creed Color Gender religion short tall fat skinny gay trans everyone should be treated with the utmost respect of unless you do not follow the rule of law

of course and you're a schmock i'm always amazed at people that are pissed off at all the Muslims because of a couple of Muslims. Hate the Jews because look what Israel. We've seen it happen to Sikhs. I was at a restaurant once in this, a mom, husband and wife, seek and they were getting blasted by some guy. I had to stand up and get in their way. I don't know what's going on out there. What people are thinking. What people are thinking. This guy thought it was a kid school. It was a kid's school. kindergarten. Was he going to go there and murder a bunch of kids? Well, the good news is he's roasted. I hope he felt a lot of pain. I hope. That's okay, right? I hope, but, I mean, I don't know what's happened. Actually, I do. There's a bunch of extremists that are just freaking insane,

have nothing in their life except and let me go do some damage anyway and I think there was also at a naval base today also some guy that I guess pledged to ISIS or some like that you got the wife of the mayor

that is liked on social media October 7th what kind of an asshole is this woman and the husband says well she's private no she's not private she's the wife of the mayor of new york city there's a virginia university shooting killer previously guilting of helping isis and he was let out i guess i don't know it's a a rough day ladies and gentlemen and uh you know i really wish you ready for more rough i get a my son aaron is in town for some business and he went

with my wife to visit her father who's in hospice, my father-in-law. She gets out of the car. Oh, and she slams her finger and the tip of her pinky finger gets broken off. My wife lost the tip of her pinky finger. So we had to run to the hospital. The good news is only the tip will not need surgery, but that was part of the day also today. Happy days. And as we've said to you, whenever I go to a synagogue,

right now. Mass of security. I went to a bar mitzv in New York City at a synagogue. They had two guys you wouldn't believe. That's what it's come to. And you know, we can sit here and throw blame back and I don't know what to tell you. We have preached one thing, our whole life, to our sons, and that's everybody's equal to us. You treat the janitor like you treat the CEO. You treat the busboy like the owner of the restaurant the same way. And we see all this crap. Well, we'll keep doing what are doing. We'll try to spread the good.

But unfortunately, a little bit of the bad is out there. Anyway, that was the day today, besides the fact, back to the markets. Oil prices sort again today. It's still going on. Dow drop 739, S&P 103, NASDAQ 404, NASDAQ 404, NASDAQ-401, Russell 2000 more than 2% midcaps more than 2%.

I can tell you where the strength is. Oils, but not all of them. There were some oils that were down pretty good today, but some of the big oil in the refiners and you know what else is really strong? Fertilizers. Why are fertilizer strong? Because you can't get fertilizers through the Strait of Hormuz. And those prices are spiking, which makes them a lot more money.

That's what's going on while the market's headed down. I took a shot at the semis in the last couple of days. stopped out today breaking the 50 day doofus I am but we've kept things very close to the vest a lot of cash still have our S&P going back to last April but I'm not so sure that's going to be hanging too soon for too much longer what else is the effect of the oil well transports are getting smoked and they were strong airlines cruise lines hotels travel getting smoked don't know the cause and effect but housing related housing getting smoked. And interesting enough, yields keep spiking up. Why are yields spiking up? Well, cost of the war,

debt deficits, and inflation. Prices are going up because of the war. And that's to accommodate for inflationary pressure, which takes me to the president being needs economics 101. He wants Jay Powell to lower rates today. He's blasting Jay Powell again and is charming. way. You should not low and short-term interest rates when long-term interest rates are spiking up and oil prices and fertilizer prices are skyrocketing. You'll make it worse. Of course, Trump doesn't realize that because all he cares about, give me easy money, but as we have taught you and as we have been teaching you, easy money is not the answer all the time. It caused the gargantuan inflation and the housing distortions brought to you by J-PAL.

So Jay Powell now is doing the right thing, but he's got somebody in the White House giving him the middle finger every day. Jay Powell's in the right, the president's in the wrong. And hopefully he doesn't listen to him. You want more 9% inflation? Go lower short-term interest rates right now while the market's saying otherwise. We've taught you that for years. I may have to send the message to the White House. I doubt he'll listen.

Anyway, that's really the story of the day. We'll go through the innards, the rest of the show. By the way, my wife's finger's okay. No surgery. But, man, my son calls me up. I think she lost her finger. What? And then I hear her yell.

No, my tip to tip, the tip. Hey, how's your day? The rest of the show will go through sector by sector, important stocks. and what we consider to be maybe a bigger matzabal than what's going on with the oil believe it or not

there may be something else a gremlin that is ready to come out of the woodwork or is already and you know what that is because we have been warning you for quite a while to avoid the private equity companies. Blackstone's gone from 190 to 103.

Blackstone. While the S&P's a few percent off the highs. Blackstone. Black Rock. That one's crumbling too. And the other, the many. What's going on there? Well, I think we explained it pretty well yesterday.

That's up next. Much more. This is the one and only Investors Edge. Hi, I'm Gary Kalbaum, hosted a nationally syndicated radio show Investors Edge. We're not just handsome radio people. We manage investors' money for a living, specializing in fee-based discretionary money management.

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call bomb capital management. Hi, I'm Dr. Jake Goodman, host of Beyond the Script, the podcast where I sit down with pharmacists to answer the health questions you didn't even know you could ask at the pharmacy counter. In this episode, we are diving into gut health

with CVS pharmacist Victoria Motola, who explains why so many of us live with stomach issues we should not accept as normal. A lot of what I see is just like chronic bloating, chronic stomach aches. Like I get a stomach ache every time that I eat. And it just becomes like a lifestyle where, oh, yeah, you know, I just have a stomachache every day.

Or I'm constantly feeling like gassy. And all of those things are not something that generally, if you have a healthy gut, you should be living with. So that's when we deep dive. We deep dive into your medication. We deep dive into your OTC medication. And then at that point, we can probably identify something that we can change. Hear the full conversation, plus some fascinating facts about how gut health affects so much more than just your stomach on Beyond the Script, a podcast from CVS Pharmacy and IHeartRadio.

Listen now wherever you get your podcasts. Here's a quick podcast for all you true crime fans. The case of the missing Reese's. It was me at the store with my mouth. Motive? Um, they're Reese's. What was I going to do? Stop myself.

Tune in next time to see if I do it again. Spoiler, I will. That had everything. Rees. Suspense. Rees. On Deck is built to back small businesses like yours. Whether you're buying equipment,

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OnDec does not lend in North Dakota all loans and amounts subject to lender approval. It's time to switch on the integrator units and get the brain cells working. You're listening to. Hey, this promises to be fun. Investors Edge. The last bastion of quality programming.

With Gary Coltbaum. It doesn't get better than this. And what once again to investors. edge. So let's be repetitive. So when I look at the market I can tell you

I'm going to pick out a stock that was up today Chevron. It closed at 196. 75. That was the bid. The bid. So if you wanted to sell stock, that's what you get. Since the market closed, there's a big spread.

But let's just say the bid was 196.75, the ask was 197. The bid is what you sell it for. The ask is what you pay if you're going to buy. I've got a market price. That is what the market is pricing Chevron at at any given moment in time. And that goes for every stock in the market. That trades. And some have very little spreads, some have wider spreads. Simple as that. I can see price.

It's not invisible. It's visible. I mentioned to you that a few years ago I read a story about a hedge fund that went out of business and I don't think they went to jail but they had to payback money. Maybe they went to jail. I don't know.

It was a real estate fund and they were pricing the real estate the way they wanted to. So let's say they had a shopping center that was only worth $6 million. They were pricing at $12 and they were getting fees at 12. Well, that's fraud if you're doing it on purpose. And of course, real estate, tough to really put prices on it, but you get a decent feel for something within a certain percentage. And they were caught and I guess they pleaded no low contendre, I think that's what it's called, and they paid a fine and got out of whatever. Well, in the private equity business, if you're reading about it, the pricing is based on what they think the pricing is. There's no real market

for it. You can't see it on a stock machine, a quote machine, but you'll certainly get something from the company every quarter, maybe even monthly. And I don't know whether they give you a price for everyone. Well, what just happened is BlackRock took the price of one of their loans from the most to zero. Zero. You have redemptions now because investors are scared crapless. And they're asking for their money back. But the problem with private equity, there are lock-in provisions.

Hey, you can only take out 10% every year or 20% or you're locked in for three years. And you know those up front. But every year or every two years, whatever it is when the redemption window comes up, well, if you think you're doing well, I'm going to stick with it. if you're seeing other private equity companies marking down, you're wondering what's going on at your place, and if all these things are getting marked down, get me to hell out. Well, what's happened is the problem with redemptions,

if it gets too much, they got to start selling things to cover the redemption. And if they have to start selling things, it tends to feed on itself and make even things worse. It's called the vicious cycle. That's what's going on. You have had these companies now telling people, you can only redeem this much. You're a big lender. You gave $10 million and you're now told you can only take out two. Sorry.

Well, what does that do? Well, it instills a lack of confidence. It gets reported. It feeds on itself. And you see what's going on with all these stocks. And now JP Morgan, guess what it did? Same thing. Looks like JP Morgan was involved with some of these things.

And you can go put the news up. It's a problem. It's a problem. and it seems more come out every single day on this and where it stops we don't know we're just going to continue to tell you avoid financials of all stripes all stripes and if you want to look at the exchange traded funds for financials go look at the xlf go look at the kBE kbwb Go look at the BKX. It's the banks. South end of a northbound jackass. That is my worry.

And you know why? Because they're the financials. The big backbone of markets. As we have told you, semiconductors are number one in our work. Financials are two. But very close to one. And financials used to be number one until 08. but when they come to the four like this they become number one and today more selling of the stocks of all

these companies and may i stay relentlessly and we're not predicting anything we're just letting you know they are now going through a brutal bare phase for many in name and just avoid the financials now as it can affect the whole market. Well, you know, today wasn't that good. That's the story. Very good explanation of the private equity crap. And turns out some banks are involved also. Wish I had better news.

But we've been telling you to avoid them for quite a while. And as we said from the get-go, we used to say to you, hmm, what do you think's going on here? What do you think is going on here? Now we're finding out. J.P. Morgan is clamped down on its lending to private credit groups with bankers looking to cut risk as concerns mount over the credit quality. Credit quality of the companies in their stables. They inform lenders that had marked down the value of certain loans in the portfolios, which serve as the collateral, the funds used to borrow from the bank.

The move will limit how much J.P. Morgan lends to these private credit. groups against those loans. A sign traditional Wall Street banks are growing cautious of an industry that has grown rapidly as non-bank lenders became top creditors to higher-risk borrowers. Oh, really? That's what always happens. They always lower the bar. And by the way, and this is not a rib, this administration has lowered the bar and regulations for the bankers. The bar that was raised, because of all the crime that was committed in 08. Up next. What else we see?

This is the one only investors ed. Hi, I'm Dr. Jake Goodman, host of Beyond the Script, the podcast where I sit down with pharmacists to answer the health questions you didn't even know you could ask at the pharmacy counter. In this episode, we are diving into gut health with CVS pharmacist, Victoria Motola, who explains why so many of us live with stomach issues, we should not accept as normal. A lot of what I see is just like chronic bloating, chronic stomach aches.

Like I get a stomachache every time that I eat. And it just becomes like a lifestyle where, oh, yeah, you know, I just have a stomachache every day. Or I'm constantly feeling like gassy. And all of those things are not something that generally, if you have a healthy gut, you should be living with. So that's when we deep dive. We deep dive into your medication.

We deep dive into your OTC medication. And then at that point, we can prove. probably identify something that we can change. Hear the full conversation, plus some fascinating facts about how gut health affects so much more than just your stomach on Beyond the Script, a podcast from CVS Pharmacy and IHeart Radio. Listen now wherever you get your podcasts. Here's a quick podcast for all you true crime fans, the case of the missing Reese's.

It was me at the store with my mouth. of um they're reeses what was that going to do stop myself tune in next time to see if i do it again spoiler i will wow that had everything reases suspense reases on deck is built to back small businesses like yours whether you're buying equipment expanding your team or bridging cash flow gaps on deck's loans up to four hundred thousand dollars help make it happen fast. Rated A-plus by the Better Business Bureau and earning thousands of five-star trust pilot reviews. On-Dec delivers funding you can count on. Apply in minutes at on-deck.com. Depending on certain loan attributes, your business loan may be issued by On-Dec or Celtic Bank.

On-Dec does not lend in North Dakota. All loans and amount subject to lender approval. You're listening to. America is talking. Investors Edge. He's got to be pleased with that. The crowd is just on its feet here. He's your Cinderella boy With Gary Colbomb It comes highly recommended You're going to feel better if you talk to him And welcome once again to Investors Edge

The day where my wife Lossed the tip of her pinky finger Adobe, I've been waiting for them on Aftermarket for earnings He's down 16 bucks in the aftermarket Dang Software stocks have been doing better You got good reaction out of Salesforce

You had good relative strength Oracle actually acted pretty well off earnings yesterday, though it's been sold down a little because the market sucks. And now Adobe reports, as I speak, is down $1,000, make that $17.005.252.85. By the way, my explanation of private credit was the perfect explanation. And just to harken back, let me explain what happened in 2007-08. back then, remember countrywide credit? They were the biggest lenders of home mortgages. Do you remember that?

Well, what happens is they lend mortgages to people to buy houses, and then they get packaged. They call them tranches. And what ended up happening because affordability for homes back then, not very great, and people could not qualify for mortgages, countrywide and others lowered the bar. I told you the story, a relative of mine, I had about $8,000 in the bank

and wasn't making a lot of money, got a $280,000 loan for a mortgage on a house that they paid $254 in order to pocket some money. That's what countrywide was doing. She couldn't afford it. She couldn't afford it. They were lowering the bar, and there was this line that people said back them,

anybody who breathed, whether they had a dime or not, were getting mortgages. So what happened was when prices started to come down and people could not afford their mortgages, they just dropped the keys on the doorstep. Get me the hell. I'm not, go, go screw yourself. I'm out of here. And all those tranches of mortgage-backed securities got in trouble. But you had to have help.

The rating services, those lying crooks back then. And there are emails of people at the rating services emailing each other saying, we rated those AAA and they should be triple Z. You had Goldman, and this is true. story, sell one of these packages to others and then shorted it right after, knowing how bad they were. Scumbags. You had Ben Bernanke, the Fed chair, who was called a hero afterwards, saying, nothing to worry about. Housing prices never go down. schmuck

Hank Paulson the Treasury Secretary the economy is fine, the economy is stable we see no problems in housing and of course they sucked

they didn't know what the hell they were doing all hell broke loose Lehman Merrill Countrywide Wachovia Bear Stearns went out amongst others. City Group was going out, got saved. Lehman, they didn't save. There would have been others. Guess what happened? Oh, hey, Mr. Mrs. Taxpayer, you're going to get no rewards, but we're

going to hand these crooks, $800 billion, these freaking crooks that committed massive fraud by lying about everything. We're going to hand them $800 billion, and you know what else is going to happen. They're going to keep their jobs and they're going to become billionaires off of you. And not one person's going to get indicted. Do you know there was an article in the journal about Citigroup that they took bad loans off their books before earnings and put it back on after? Do you know what kind of fraud that is? By the way, it was written up in the Wall Street Journal. And you would think You would have had the Justice Department

And the G-Men With paddy wagons Lining up at the offices of the CEO on down With handcuffs And PIRP walked them out Nope Not one freaking indictment So the worry has always been

Well, Nothing ever happened to them before. Why don't we try it again? Do you know the same people that uncovered all the crap that happened back then? It was Alphabet Soup, CMO, CMOs, M-O-USE. They've been warning how it's going on now, that there's so much leverage in the system and bad pricing, the house better not come down.

So I don't know if that's what's going on here. I'm just keeping both eyes out. I'm keeping both eyes out. Oh, by the way, the people that committed fraud just moved to another place, became CEO. I'm not going to mention names. Move to another place and just became wildly rich. We saved their asses. By the way, have any of you got a check from the government, a return on investment of the $800 billion?

We gave them? Huh? Bueller? Any of you get a check that said on it, return it? R.O.I. Thank you for your taxpayer dollars to the CEOs of all these crap houses that committed all this massive fraud back in 08. Do we ever get any of that? Hell no. But you know what we did get? A bunch of schmucks in D.C. taken us from about, I think, probably in 08, we were maybe 9 trillion of debt to 38 trillion of debt. And you know what's happened? The Wall Streeters have gone to D.C. See? Guess where Bacentis from? Wall Street. And D.C. has gone to Wall Street. Go look up past people in D.C. and where they are now. You'll see them CEO, CFOs, this, that, liaisons of these big Wall Street places. Do you know why? Just in case they do something bad and get caught, they have connections. And of course, you have the chief pardon that keeps pardoning white.

collar criminals who will never have to pay restitution to their victims running the joint now. And of course, those people have to give million dollars to the campaigns. So the cesspool continues. And I am in hopes big time, and I mean this, that this is not worse than it is already showing. It is not worse. All I can tell you, Blackstone. 190 to 102, A-R-E-S, 195 to 96. You hear about this owl, OWL, 22 down to 8.

K-K-R-154 down to 83. Apollo, 157 down to 100. We'll keep our fingers crossed. Why? Because these private equity things do not trade. There is no visibility on private. and out of nowhere, Black Rock goes from 100 to zero. Sorry, you lost all your money.

Have a great day. And that day, Black Rock drops $75, $80, and is still heading lower. And, of course, the oil prices are not helping. So that's a little bit of that. Avoid the financials until we say otherwise. And all of them. Credit cards, where the president wants 10%, interest rate, which is almost as stupid as 50-year mortgages, and so on and so forth.

And don't forget with all these IPOs that are down 50% from the first day that they touted Yon come from. Oh, that's right, Wall Street. And where the SPACs came from, from that guy, Chammoth, who's now a billionaire, who merged those SPACs with a bunch of crap, and then sold all his stock before the crap went out the window. And now he wants to do more SPACs. Yay. How do I get on this? Oh, I know why, because it pisses me off.

That said, on that note, up next, we'll have this, that, and the other thing, and whatever news we need to cover. That's up next on Investor's Edge. Hi, I'm Dr. Jake Goodman, host of Beyond the Script, the podcast where I sit down with pharmacists to answer the health questions you didn't even know you could ask at the pharmacy counter. In this episode, we are diving into gut health with CVS pharmacist Victoria Motola, who explains why so many of us live with stomach issues we should not accept as normal. A lot of what I see is just like chronic bloating, chronic stomach aches. Like I get a stomach ache every time that I eat. And it just becomes like a lifestyle where, oh, yeah, you know, I just have a stomachache every day.

Or I'm constantly feeling like gassy. And all of those things are not something. that generally, if you have a healthy gut, you should be living with. So that's when we deep dive. We deep dive into your medication. We deep dive into your OTC medication. And then at that point, we can probably identify something that we can change. Hear the full conversation, plus some fascinating facts about how gut health affects so much more than just your stomach on Beyond the Script,

a podcast from CVS Pharmacy and IHeart Radio. Listen now wherever you get your podcasts. Reese's peanut butter cups. They go perfectly with music. Podcasts. And welcome back to the show. Even nature sounds. Oh, and the thing where someone crinkles tissue and whispers at you.

Hello. Look, I'm not here to judge what you listen to. I'm here to judge you for not eating Reese's while you listen to it. Rees. Ashley, go back to the nature sounds. Nice. Yeah, that's really nice. Flash flow crunch. Ondek's small business line of credit gives your business immediate access to funds up to $200,000 right when you need it.

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One, two, ready, go. Inverster's Edge with Gary Culper. And what once again to the Investors Edge? Well, the Chicago Mercantile Exchange agrees with me. They just came out and stated, U.S. intervention in oil futures would be a disaster. What they're thinking of trying to do is short oil futures to get oil prices down. We told you a mistake.

CME agrees. What has to get done, let's get the hell out of there and get that straight open because it's not only affecting oil. It's fertilizer, anything else that comes through there. Other news, Adobe CEO stepping down. It's been there 18 years. I guess when your stock goes from, let's see, a high of 721 and it's 269 today. Oh, and it's in the aftermarket 249, maybe it's time.

And as I look at the numbers, the numbers aren't that bad. I don't know what's going on there except you know what they do, the Adobe Acrobat and things like that. and I think the competition, they still do like 20-some-odd billion in revenue. Well, that's in the news. You know, I'm trying to come up with good news. I think the Knicks won last. They finally broke their two-game losing streak. How's that for good news?

And they lowered prices for WrestleMania tickets that were too high in the first place. That's good news, right? I will be going to both nights to WrestleMania. I must. Sector by sector, anything travel. That should be obvious. And not only the oil thing is that they've knocked out some airports in the Middle East. And in case you don't know, the worms in D.C.

Still have a partial shutdown to where some airports have four-hour waits through TSA. I had my son, who was leaving to go back to New York from Orlando, told him to get there early. And I think Orlando is doing a good job. I think Orlando is doing a good job. We would avoid the travel. We mentioned the financials. That's a gimmy. It's been going on for a while.

Didn't start yesterday. The software, as we stated to you, we thought A. Lowe was being put. and they do have some good relative strength versus the market, but it ain't saying much, and they're all still below declining moving averages, all of them. I will give a little credit to Salesforce.com, CRM, acting better off their earnings report, but I'm going to need to see more. A lot of the retail.

There's some good retail stocks. Raw stores act very well. Five below. Target good reaction to their nominal. earnings and sales. TjX, good reaction. Kids, most others, ew. Housing and housing related. That's been going on for quite a while. They try to bounce when interest rates went down to 3-8, but we're back up to 4-2 and change. Actually, almost 4-3 already. And guess what? That's not going to do well. And as we have told you, inventory across the country is gargantuan. Prices are

coming down for resells. And I can tell you new homes, if you go look in Florida, every city is down in price and the offerings are given like free this and a new pool or upgraded this and upgraded that. So the housing we would avoid. Auto dealers. autos, the payroll stocks, and boy, one plus one equal two there, because they topped out, let's see when payroll topped out, in June of 25. You know what topped out around that? The job market. Do you know in the last year there have been six months where job creation was down?

So payroll. Now people tell me, well, I think artificial intelligence may have something to do with that. Okay, everything that goes down is artificial intelligence, right? Anyway, payroll stocks are big of void. Auto dealers. Big a void. This second, anything to do with housing. We're talking Home Depot and Lowe's.

We're talking about William Sonoma, Sherwin Williams. I haven't looked at Walpole in a while. Oops, bare market. transports were acting so well but guess what a big cost of transports are correct so I'm willing to say if oil prices break and head to the downside

I think transports get lifted but they're not going to perform well in this environment hell no heck no what does Landstar do trucking transportation I think that's going to do well? Old Dominion, you think that's going to do well?

Hell no. So we'll avoid that too. A lot of the mega caps. I think most are avoids. Most are avoids. With some really bad. Dow names, there's a few strong. But then I look at Nike and thinking,

when are they taking that out of the Dow? Nike's gone from 179 to 54. You've got to think they're thinking about it, right? And then the people who picked the Dow, they took out Chevron, right? And that's gone north. And they put in, I forgot what they put in, but it's been getting crushed. Maybe it is Nike. Anyway, new yearly low list picked up in the last couple of days, new yearly highs.

I would suggest their oils and fertilizers at this juncture. And there you have it. Wish I had better things to tell you. When that shows up, we'll scream it. You'll have a great evening and drive carefully when you get home, do like we do. Quite simple. Make sure you hug your family, hug your children. They will feel better.

You will feel better. I promise stay well, be well. We're with you. Bye-bye. This has been Investor's Edge with Gary Coltbaum. on BizTalk. To listen to past episodes or to get in contact with Gary, go to Garyk dot com. That's GaryKK.com. Guys, it's no use putting it off. The best time for an underwear refresh is now.

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