Investor's Edge with Gary Kaltbaum - The seas were angry [11.18.2025]

Episode Date: November 18, 2025

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That's Tommyjohn.com, code comfort. Tommy John. Comfort perfected. Investor's Edge with Gary Coltbaum. Straight talk about you and your money. Now from the BizTalk Studios, here is Gary Cultbaum. And welcome once again to Investors Edge. I'm Gary Coltbaum, your host. A thanks for being with us today.

Glad you're here, ladies and gentlemen. Happy that you are listening. November 18th, Tuesday, 2025. Hope you're having a good. day. As always, serious talk on everything that affects you. We'll do the markets, the economy, your job, your industry, everything that affects it out of the Morlocks in D.C. No, really. And of course, the debt and the deficits and the scams and shams and corruption and the BS and the obfuscations, big word from Gary and whatever else comes to mind. If you do not get this radio

show in your city, we'll post it at GaryK.com. We'll post it on our Twitter feed, which is now X. I should just say X. And if you don't follow us on X, you should. We'll also post it on the YouTube channel, BizTV, as well as other podcast apps. And if you'd like to email me, just be nice. So, ladies and gentlemen, the Dow was down 500, the S&P 55, NASDAQ 275, NASDAQ 100, 296. Let me repeat that. Dow was down 500, 498.5.

S&P was down 55. NASDAQ 275, NASDAQ 1096. Advanced declines were positive today on the New York and even on the NASDAQ. What? How can that be? Well, you had a little bit of the opposite day today. So let me explain for all that need to know, which is everybody. Technology has not a hard.

100% but has taken over the big indices in a big way. They are a huge portion of the big indices. And if they have a bad day, but the rest of the market have a good day, market's still going down because of how big they are. We've had days Listen carefully With the Dow

Was up 500 And I came on this show And said the broad market Was terrible Let's use the S&P And that's because The S&P has so much of the tech

Today Was a brutal Big Tech Day while other areas of the market were green. For example, Microsoft down 14 today. Costco, down 17. And yes, these are high price, but those are some pretty good numbers. Tesla down 7 and change.

Amazon down 10 in change. Semiconductors down 154. So micron, down 13. Sandus down 20. AMD down 10. ASML 16. KLAC. down 10. Big portions. And of course, and then there's earning season. Earning season.

Home Depot down 21. Down 21 today on a worsening outlook. Down 21 today on this is Home Depot. In case you don't know, they do about 160 billion of revenues. And of course, if Home Depot goes, so does Lowe's. But what was up today? Food and beverage and tobacco. Insurance. They bounced the withering financials. You had a couple of restaurants up. Believe it or not, some lesser tech was up today.

Some were down. But it just shows the amazing concentration in the few that make up so much of those big indices. You ready for this one? the Russell 2000 was up today, the small caps, the midcaps were up today. With the Dow down 498 and the S&P down 55 and the NASDAQ 275 and the NASDAQ 100 down 296. Unbelievable. And I must tell you, the companies or whoever they are that keep these indices and the Dow need to fix this up.

when I tell you that Goldman Sachs is one of the 30 Dow names and so is Verizon but a 1% move in Goldman Sachs is 20 times more important to the Dow Index than Verizon something got to go something got to change the problem is I don't know how to change it

when companies are loath to really split stocks anymore. I mean, hell, we got booking holdings at $4,800. KLAC at $1,100. Netflix just did a 10-for-1. By the way, I was watching Netflix today. I'm thinking, eh, that's not up much. But I just did a 10-for-1 yesterday. It was up $3.80.

Today, that's $38. So just letting you know, the makeup of the markets, you could have a good broad market day and still have a nasty technology day. And by the way, in the Dow, Amazon was 65 Dow points. Microsoft was 85. And Vida was 35.

And of course, Home Depot, 21 points. 145 Dow points, approximately. I'm rounding around. So again, my middle screen today was screen, except for the semis, which is on the right side of the screen. But the indices down 500, 275 and 296, NASDAQ, NASDAQ, 100, SMP 55. Amazing makeup. And I have to adjust based on that myself. I have to recognize that 20 stocks in the S&P could get trashed and 480B flatter up and have a down day.

And of course the NASDAQ 100. And you know the names. And Vidiya reports after the close tomorrow. I have absolutely no clue what they report. I'm sure they're going to beat. I'm sure he's going to say good things. I'll give it that. That I'll give.

But what I'd like to do today is I just put together some things. and we have been warning you a little bit on what's been going on with debt and these artificial intelligence stocks to where we ask the question how does Oracle announce a monstrous number and the stock goes from 345 to 220 well all I keep reading about is the debt a core weave 185 bucks down to 75 and many a pundit love the stock and I saw somebody talking bullish today on it and I'm like aren't you down like 60 some odd percent so let me read a few things to you there's a company called Anthropic they just say they committed to buying 30 billion dollars of Azure Microsoft compute capacity is going to invest $5 billion in Anthropic. And Vidiya committing to invest $10 billion in Anthropic.

Hmm. We've been talking about this circular financing, vendor financing. And I'm just reading this and I'm like, wait a minute here. One's buying into the other who's going to buy into each other. That's just one. That's just one. That's just one. Next up,

Corweave has bonds. A lot of debt being put out. They're now triple Cs, and it just dropped from 105 to 95. Due in 2030. Up next, we'll keep going with this. Not to scare you, we're just reporting the news. I'm Gary.

This is the one only investor's edge. Hi, I'm Gary Kalbaum, hosted a nationally syndicated radio show Investors Edge. We're not just handsome radio people. We manage investors' money for a living, specializing in fee-based discretionary money management. No big commissions, just a fee on the assets that's managed. We also provide a full range of personalized services,

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and their innovative horizontal quick-draw fly is a game changer. With over 30 million pairs sold, there are thousands of men out there more comfortable than you. Don't settle for less. Go to Tommyjohn.com today for 25% off your first order with Code Comfort. That's Tommyjohn.com. Comfort. Tommy John. Comfort perfected. This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect.

Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card, what's in your wallet? Terms apply lounge access. is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details. This episode is brought to you by Spreaker, the platform responsible for a rapidly spreading condition known as podcast brain. Symptoms include buying microphones you don't need, explaining RSS feeds to confused relatives, and saying things like, sorry, I can't talk right now, I'm editing audio. If this sounds familiar, you're probably already a podcaster. The good news is Spreaker makes the whole process simple. You record your show,

upload it once, and Spreaker distributes it everywhere, People listen. Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and about a dozen apps your cousin swears are the next big thing. Even better, Spreaker helps you monetize your show with ads, meaning your podcast might someday pay for, well, more microphones. Start your show today at spreeker.com. Spreaker, because if you're going to talk to yourself for an hour, you might as well publish it. It's time to switch on the integrator units and get the brain cells working. You're listening to. Hey, this promises to be free.

Investors Edge. The last bastion of quality programming. With Gary Coltbaum. It doesn't get better than this. So, I didn't even know this, but Corweave had to pay 9.5% to float bonds due 2030. And typically short term bonds should not get trashed and they're getting hit. And I don't know if I use the word trashed, but they're getting hit.

Let me continue. Weave, spending $310 million on interest expense, against $52 million in operating income, borrowing money to pay interest on previous loans. The problem, Microsoft accounts for 67% of revenue, but is now building its own AI chips and data centers. Open AI has $22 billion contract with Corweave but can terminate if not delivered. Meta signed a $14 billion contract but sold $30 billion in bonds to build its own facilities. All three major customers could become competitors. Nvidia is Corweaves investor, customer, and vendor. Owning $4 billion in shares.

The company is building data centers for customers who are simultaneously building their own facilities to compete with them. And I keep getting asked, why do you think the stock's getting hit? Again, we're just reporting the news. That's all. That's all. let's skip around no let's not skip around

we'll get back to other things Oracle the betting on insurance to cover issues the insurance to buy is going higher in price this is just the market just reporting the market and we're not picking on

it's the market. It is being reported, and this is a true report. Data centers are standing empty demand. We worry about bubbles. There's a startup called Thinking Machines. Thinking Machines Lab. They're in early talks to raise another round of funding to go public at a 15. billion dollar valuation more than four times from a few months ago they have no product no

customers and no revenues i'm i'm just reporting the news and we're reporting it because man a lot of this a lot of this just reminds we're also hearing that the new york fed has convened the meeting with banks about worries, about strains in money markets? Now remember, this is all going on while the market's been withering a lot of these names. Again, the broad market had a decent day today, but the broad market's just bouncing. I can tell you, hey, some restaurants are up today, but they've been bludgeoned. so just letting you know we're just trying to put the pieces of the puzzle together

on why very popular stocks are getting smoked now to be fair micron and sand disk and Seagate and Western Digital of all that good move up they're pulling back right now but they've been strong I'm talking about the names that had to go from my front screen to my left screen. I'm talking about what the hell's going on with Oracle.

No, really? How could that be based on their numbers? So we're just, no matter what, anything's trading below, we're not touching, we're avoiding. We believe in leadership, uptrends, but there's a lot of downtrends in these areas right now. And we read everything with skepticism. We read everything with skepticism.

We trust nothing that anybody writes. But when we look at these stocks on top of what's being written, you take a pause and we'll see how it plays out. At the very least, we know what to avoid in a very, very tricky market over the last weeks. One of the trickiest I've seen in a very long time. Always optimistic, but more realistic. And we'll have Venned tomorrow after the close. That's the head of the table.

They will not say anything untoward. they will talk a big game we'll be watching what the big institutions do will be particular well I know what they're going to say they're going to talk big very interested to see what the semiconductor equipment stocks do

not just what they say we know what they're going to say that's the story up next More on the markets. Whatever else comes to mind. I'm Gary. This is the one only investor's edge. Guys, it's no use putting it off.

The best time for an underwear refresh is now. Tommy John underwear is designed for a perfect fit that stays put all day. Their zero-chafe thanks to four times more stretch than competing brands. And their innovative horizontal quick-drop fly is a game changer. With over 30 million pairs sold, there are thousands of men out there more comfortable than you. Don't settle for less. Go to Tommyjohn.com today for 25% off your first order with Code Comfort. That's Tommyjohn.com code comfort.

Tommy John. Comfort perfected. This message is brought to you by the Capital One VentureX card. VentureX offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000,

airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply. Lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details. This episode is brought to you by Spreaker. The platform responsible for a rapidly spreading condition known as podcast brain. Symptoms include buying microphones you don't need, explaining RSS feeds to confused relatives, and saying things like, sorry, I can't talk right now, I'm editing audio. If this sounds familiar, you're probably already a podcaster. The good news is Spreaker makes the whole process simple. You record your show, upload it once, and Sprinker distributes it everywhere people listen.

Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and about a dozen apps your cousins swears are the next big thing. Even better, Spreaker helps you monetize your show with ads, meaning your podcast might someday pay for, well, more microphones. Start your show today at spreeker.com. Sprinker, because if you're going to talk to yourself for an hour, you might as well publish it. America is talking. Investors Edge. He's got to be pleased with that. The crowd is just on his feet here.

He's a Cinderella boy. With Gary Colbomb. It comes highly recommended. You're going to feel better if you talk to him. And welcome once again to Investors Edge. I don't know if this is making fun of myself. So last night, I caught a little bug. You know, when you're in New York at 25, 30 degrees, little rain on you.

get back to Florida and it's 70 degrees. You catch these, and you're on airplanes back and forth, you catch a little bug. So like at 3 in the morning, Winston rolls over on me and wakes me up and I'm like, can't breathe well. I took some NyQuil. Do you know I was like wasted all day to day from taking NyQuil at 3 p, 3 a.m. in the morning? I had no idea. It says NyQuil for night. holy crap

I was wasted and I'm told I don't do drugs I don't drink ever what I have this year in drinking I think I'm beating last year last year I had five drinks this year I've only had three I think

yeah I think I've had three this year so I guess my tolerance I don't know what's in it I was like wasted I was walking around like a mummy I'm all good now Now, that's it for the NyQuil. Holy smokes.

And I mentioned it to the peeps, and they were like, yeah, NyQuil. NyQuil. All right, now that I made fun of myself, I think. I'm not going to talk to president today. I'm not going to say much good. He met with the head of Saudi Arabia, and you can go read about it, some of the things. I wish I had his ear. I really do

but he wouldn't listen anyhow I could really help him out big time a couple other things I have a little worry in case you don't know Fannie Mae you know Fannie Mae is just eliminated it's 620 FICO

score minimum I guess for certain type of home ownership so it's guaranteeing riskier mortgages to borrowers with not so good credit. And of course, this came down from the administration to make housing more affordable,

but this is utter stupidity. Utter stupidity. You know what happened in 2008. Anybody that could breathe could get a mortgage. I told you about somebody I knew, near and dear to me. had 10 grand in the bank wasn't making a lot of money

got a $280,000 mortgage with nothing down on a house that the loan was only $250 and pocketed 30 grand they were just given away the store we do not want to lower standards

in an elevated price for homes situation. Simple logic. If you don't have great credit, you don't have a lot of money, and you buy a home, and prices of the home comes down and you know it, you're going to drop the keys off and it's going to lead to a vicious cycle. Just like the stupidity of the 50-year mortgage, which, by the way, that's dropped out of sight. And we told you it would. The best idea to give this administration on affordability of homes do nothing. The market will fix it over time and fixed the mistakes of Jay Powell, the worst Federal Reserve person ever times 10. And he came after Janet Yellen and Ben Bernanke, do nothing. If they, you can't afford

a house, you're not buying it, you're renting. Fantasy prices are coming down. Let them come down. And we'll hit a point of equilibrium eventually, maybe in two years, maybe in a year, maybe in five, don't care. Let the market be. Of course, they will not listen to me. They will not listen to me. All this talk now on health care. Just remember, the new, name of Obamacare is the Affordable Care Act. The Marxist party and Obama promised it would make health care affordable. They told us our premiums would come down. You have Jonathan Gruber on video. One of the architects said they had a lie to the public and they could lie because we're stupid. But now they claim we have a health care crisis due to soaring costs. Those are the same

Marxists. So why would more government help if government's the cause of the problem? It won't. Just letting you know. Remember, we're the most logical people on earth here. Affordable Care Act my arse. Just remember, they're now telling you there's a health care crisis. same people who told you the Affordable Care Act will cure it all is now telling us there's a health care crisis their act we give credit to the president on this for not given in on the government shutdown on what they want to do with more of our tax dollars for this boondoggle see we're equal waiting here not happy with the president today and how we handled a bunch of things

but we like what they did holding out just want you to remember all this why I got news for you there is a decent shot they're going to have the house the Marxist party come 28

that means they get all the committees the good news is we won't get a lot done, but they'll have a lot more power. And as much as we are not thrilled with the tariffs and other things going on right now economically, the Marxists are nightmarish, including this guy that's going to be the mayor of New York City, including that guy. So just a little this and that for you today, ladies and gentlemen, on a day. where my middle screen is all green, while the Dow dropped 500 points. NASDAQ 275, NASDAQ under 296, and by the way, the market attempted to rally.

It was much worse. It was much better. The NASDAQ at its load today was actually down 475, but at around 240 was. 226-3-9 was only down like 70 and then fell off into the close the Dow was trying also the Dow was 4637 in the last hour dropped 270 points late to be down 500 was down most of the day and of course Home Depot certainly not helping and for that we will be visiting five home depots this weekend. There's about five within 45 minutes

where we live. Just to get a feel. Actually, I'm going to go visit one tonight. Just to get a feel. Up next. This, that, and the other thing, whatever else. I'm Gary. This is the one only investor's edge.

Guys, it's no use putting it off. The best time for an underwear refresh is now. Tommy John underwear is designed for a perfect fit that stays put all day. Their zero-chafe thanks to four times more stretch than competing brands, and their innovative horizontal quick-draw fly is a game changer. With over 30 million pairs sold, there are thousands of men out there more comfortable than you. Don't settle for less. Go to Tommyjohn.com today for 25% off your first order with Code Comfort.

That's Tommyjohn.com, code comfort. Tommy John, comfort perfected. This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X. card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply. Lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details. This episode is brought to you by Spreaker.

The platform responsible for a rapidly spreading condition known as podcast brain. Symptoms include buying microphones you don't need, explaining RSS feeds to confused relatives, and saying things like, sorry, I can't talk right now, I'm editing audio. If this sounds familiar, you're probably already a podcaster. The good news is Spreaker makes the whole process simple. You record your show, upload it once, and Sprinker distributes it everywhere people listen. Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and about a dozen apps your cousin swears are the next big thing. Even better, Spreaker helps you monetize your show with ads, meaning your podcast might

someday pay for, well, more microphones. Start your show today at spreeker.com. Spreaker, because if you're going to talk to yourself for an hour, you might as well publish it. You're listening to What are we waiting for? Well, what are you waiting for? One, two, ready, go. Action! In the Bester's Edge. With Gary Kulpaw. So the main question I got today, I guess there's a lot of talk about bubbles and popping. Well, we already know that the no sales or very low sales, those bubbles have popped. For good, you never know. You never know.

We try not to predict the actual timing on these things. for those because they're insane. All we told you weeks and weeks ago is eventually what would happen and they crashed a bunch of them. I can tell you they bounced a little today. But to give you an example, OKLO closed at 96 today. It was 193, 1, 2, 3, 4, less than 5 weeks ago. And that's kind of a good one. what is that down about 45%

yeah so be careful we don't know exactly how those play out but leave no doubt there's 40 to 70% drops in these names here's a 55er

LAC 10 and a half down to 5 what is that about 50 it's in the 50s and those rare earth things, I mean, holy crap. And then you have, how about BMNR that's gone from 161 to 32? And it, by the way, is down from $65 in early October. So that's down 50% just from early October, but went to 161 back in June.

Well, if I guess the start of when they decided to take the, I guess it was a SPAC. one of those things. So I think a lot of that's popped. Here's one. USA Rare Earth, no sales, 44 to 15. And by the way, when we say to you go back where it came from, the stock traded between 10 and 20 for nine months before it went to 44 bucks. It's back to 15. And it's still a $1.2 billion market cap with no sales. And again, we're not ribbon on these companies, we're just letting you know the markets. We're letting you know the markets. How about 32 down to 8? Something critical metals, 32 down to 8. But it was a buck in May. Another SPAC at 10 bucks that went down to a buck in change and all of a sudden they talk about lithium metals. They rallied at the 3215.15, it's 8.

That sounds like about 70-something percent. So those bubbles popped. But do I think we've popped the whole AI thing? I think there is something, well, look, if a core weave goes from 180 to 74, you would think that's 187 to 74. I would suggest, and we can call it whatever you want, bubble or not, doesn't matter. we're dealing with price here.

Let's just say I think something's up and will the mothership is tomorrow after the close and we'll get a little bit more feel. We may look years from now, we may look back because I'm questioning right now, Oracle, again, let me repeat and oft mentioned, they announced like numbers like, I couldn't believe.

I went to 345 from 220 right after a report. It's back to 220. So we're going to look back and say, oh, that, I don't know. I just want to deal in real time, and all I can tell you in real time, there's some holy crap moves and some names you would not expect. I expect that from some of that no sales and money lose. So stay tuned It's been wicked

We've been mostly ETF bound the last few weeks And it's still been a pain in the You know what Stocks The moves Up down, up down Amazing

And right now a little bit on the Well, a decently amount on the Dow On the downside Other things we worry The financials But they bounce today but go look at MasterCard and Visa stock gives me pause

and of course other financials we have mentioned always the optimist but always the realist we're keeping watch in what we consider to be a real pain in the rear end and I think we mentioned tomorrow Adam will be doing the show. We will be hosting, I think it's the 23rd or 24th.

Boys and Girls Clubs of Central Florida, Colbaum Family Thanksgiving Dinner will be serving 300 great youth from the clubs, a Thanksgiving dinner. It has been our honor. And by the way, we did come up with the idea also. Well, pat myself on the back. And as we say, during the holidays. By the way, I'm losing my voice. If able, think about doing something for somebody, you need absolutely nothing from. I promise you, you'll feel good about it. Have a great evening. Drive carefully. When you get home to like we do quite simple. Make sure you hug your family. Make sure you hug your children. They will feel better. You will feel better. Stay well. Be well. Have a good night all. Bye bye.

has been Investors' Edge with Gary Cultbaum on BizTalk. To listen to past episodes or to get in contact with Gary, go to GaryK.com. That's GaryKK.com. Guys, it's no use putting it off. The best time for an underwear refresh is now. Tommy John underwear is designed for a perfect fit that stays put all day. Their zero-chafe thanks to four times more stretch than competing brands and their innovative horizontal quick-draw fly is a game changer. With over 30 million pairs sold, there are thousands of men out there more comfortable than you. Don't settle for less. Go to Tommyjohn.com today for 25% off your first order with code comfort. That's Tommyjohn.com code comfort. Tommy John. Comfort perfected. This message is

brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply, lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details.