Investor's Edge with Gary Kaltbaum - THE SHORT WEEK IN REVIEW

Episode Date: April 6, 2023

Follow Gary on GaryK.com or http://garykaltbaum.com

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VALA through 327. Selection varies by location. Raw supplies last. Investor's Edge with Gary Coltbaum. Straight talk about you and your money. Now from the BizTalk Studios, here is Gary Cultbaum. And welcome once again to Investors Edge. I'm Gary Coltbaum, your host day, thanks of being with us today.

Glad you here, ladies and gentlemen, happy that you are listening. It's April 6, 2000 and 23. It's Thursday. Happy Easter, happy Passover, whatever you celebrate, be well, be safe, enjoy, and all that. tomorrow we are off best of gary by the way fox business network will not be off and i think i'll be on the noon hour with uh neil cavuto or you know sometimes he'll take off the holiday but noon hour fox business i should be on uh ladies and gentlemen so throughout the years we're doing markets by the way we're not going to talk joe biden or

Donald Trump or anything else. We're going to talk markets today. Through the years, we have taken pains to explain to you that you got to do a lot more than just the Dow, the US&P, and all that. We have taken pains to explain to you that there's always some bull and bare markets at the same time we have taken pains to tell you that when we scan every night it's a couple of thousand stocks but it's also 200 sectors and sub sectors what are you by that well in semiconductors there's the equipment makers you know and and other areas we'll look at countries and their charts commodities in their charts and And then, and we're bringing this up because of what's happening right now and what could be the repercussions.

In the past, we have done this little simplification of the markets for you. And it's important we bring it up today because it is important. And those that have followed us just in the last couple of years, we kept you out of all the bare market areas. we kept out of all of them of course you had to follow the lead we don't tell you what to do we tell you what we think and recently we have been harping on while the market the market has been rallying up so many areas are bearish bearish down trends really bearish and whatever you want to call them and then there's the other part of the equation And here's the simplification.

Imagine if there's just 100 stocks in all of the stock markets. That's all, 100. And let's start by putting them all with an equal weighting. And what that means is each stock and its movement has the same weighting and influence on the index as the next one. Well, if 50 stocks are in a definable uptrend and 50 stocks are in an equal definable downtrend, the index will be flat. And it would be important to know which 50 is doing the right thing.

Equal weighting. You got that? in the Dow, it's not equal weighted. You have 30 stocks, and I believe the problem with the Dow is simple. It's price weighted. In other words, the lowest price stock is Intel in the Dow. If Intel went from its closing price today of $32.81, cents and it went to zero, Intel went to zero. It would be 222 Dow points. A Dow stock dropping 100%

Intel the lowest price would be 222 points. But if you took the highest priced Dow stock, which is United Health, And that went to zero. It would be 3,476 points of the Dow. Which is so stupid. But that's the nature of the beast. That's how they've set it up, and that's how we, you know, understand it. And that's why we tell you what has more influence. United Health is a $512 stock.

If it went to zero, it's given up 3,470. if it dropped 100% just like Intel, Intel would only be 222 points. So there you have outside influence, an outsider, an outlier influence. And that goes the other way also. If Intel doubled 220 doubt points, if United Health doubled 3,476 Dow points, outlier and then what if just what if you have an index of a hundred stocks and seven stocks were 52% of the index 93 stocks were 48%. So those 93 stocks can be down 10%. Seven stocks can be up 20%.

The index would be up, even though 93 out of 100 stocks would be down 10%. And that's what I want to bring up today because a little more accentuation of what we're seeing. And we need to let you know the importance of it and what we are seeing because how it works normally, usually in markets, underneath the surface of seven stocks,

52% of the NASDAQ 100, 24% of the S&P. Imagine seven stocks, 24% of the S&P, 493 stocks, 76%. What do you say about those seven stocks? Huge gargantuan influence. Now, what do we know based on precedent? Well, if the 493 stocks are gagging badly, but all that money is going into those seven stocks,

catching my draft? If 93 stocks in the NASDAQ 100 are gagging badly, but those seven stocks are going higher, what is it telling you well it has always told us and always ultimately ends badly in that if the broader market worsens if the plethora notice the big words of stocks are gagging going into their own private bare markets but all that money is flowing into those seven. It tells us it's more or less the parking of money. And what if those seven are the biggest, most liquid names in the market, which it always is?

It's simple again. The eventuality is if things worsen, they eventually get the last vestiges. It's happened 100% of the... time ultimately if the broad market the rest of the market doesn't put its line in the sand put its feet on the ground and gets going and we're bringing that up today because we have been mentioning to you these stocks and there's some issues with these stocks also go look up the words nifty 50 go look it up when you have a chance. Nifty 50.

Go read up about internet in 99. Up next, we'll talk about today. This is the one only Investor's Edge. Hi, I'm Gary Kalbaum, hosted a nationally syndicated radio show Investors Edge. We're not just handsome radio people. We manage investors' money for a living, specializing in fee-based discretionary money management.

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Talk to your doctor or pharmacist today. Sponsored by GSK. It's time to switch on the integrator units and get the brain cells working. You're listening to. Hey, this promises to be fun. Investors Edge. The last bastion of quality programs. Grab it with Gary Coltbaum. It doesn't get better than this. Okay, so this week, and in the last couple of weeks, economically sensitive stocks crumbled. Financials crumbled a few weeks ago, and actually they feel like they're getting sold out in their turn.

Recently also, they crumbled a lot of retail and transports and transport types and industrial types. Caterpillar and deer. For example, oils, energy, until OPEC did their thing, and it gapped up, but since then, nothing but selling right back down, the oil stocks. Advanced decline figures have been terrible. The up-down volume has been terrible. The new highs versus new lows have not been good, but, and they finally brought in a technology. when I mean brought in, pulled back. Nothing really untoward, but pulled back and got some things breaking down.

A bunch of the semiconductor names breaking the 50-day moving average, which doesn't have to be a death knell. But when a lot of them do tend to a little worry a bit. Apple, Amazon, Google, Facebook, Microsoft, NVIDIA, Tesla. 24% of the S&P. 24% plus of the S&P. 51% plus of the NASDAQ 100. Just those seven names.

And today, the Dow was up just two points. Oils were down, defense was down, retail mostly down. Housing failed breakouts down, economically sensitive was down. Semiconductors mostly read. Financials mixed. The farm machinery mostly read. Apple was only up 90 cents. half a percent

Amazon was up less than one percent Google was up three percent Facebook was up two percent Microsoft was up two and a half percent and vizia only up about six tenths of a percent Tesla was down NASDAQ 100 was up 95

on them and of course there were a few other things up but we just need to let you know and the NASDAQ was up 91 with the Dow up too and I have to tell you there are other names that are kind of big in the NASDAQ 100 but less so names like getting a fee right now uh broadcom is 2% uh Costco 1.7 Cisco 1.7 Cisco 1.6 Adobe 1.3, Texas inch, a lot of ones underneath that. But Microsoft and Apple are 25%. Just those two.

Amazon's another six. Nvidia's a five. Google the two classes of stock, a 7.5, and Facebook 3.6 and Tesla 3.5. And then it falls off. They had a really good day-to-day versus the market. Again. And I must tell you, I was surprised today.

And why was I surprised? Well, it's pretty simple. Market was pulling in. They were getting them also. And you think there's probably more to go. No, two and a half days of selling. And not only did they come in, but they really came in. They really did.

And what could be the issue? Apple, last quarter's earnings down 10 and down 5, sales, earnings and sales trading at the highest multiple in decades with the slowest of growth now maybe they can reaccelerate it we'll see amazon now let me be clear amazon's week it's been a little bit better but versus apple the others weak but it's been trying earnings last quarter only down 98 percent they'll recover a little bit the next couple of quarters but uh google better and of course all it took was Google to mention something about artificial intelligence yesterday, and they got it going today. But Google's earnings last two quarters, minus 15, minus 19.

Facebook, stock's just been humming. It's been humming. Last four quarters of earnings, minus 18, minus 32, minus 49, minus 52. Those aren't good. And if I look at guidance for Facebook for this quarter, it's $1.92 versus $272. So expectations are for another 30% drop, though they'll beat by a little bit. But still another drop in earnings. Microsoft, not as bad, but earnings were down 6%.

Nvidia has been very strong on AI. Last three quarters earnings down 51, down 50, down 303. And then there's Tesla. The only name that is near term broken some support. So what gives? Why is all this money flowing? Let's talk today, but it's been into these names. Well, they're famous, they're huge, they're very liquid, and that's why.

And the worry is ultimately they will get them. And let me guarantee, I'm not a lot of guarantee. Let me give you my thoughts based on press, If the markets worsen, they eventually get them. All of them. So the good news is for them. We'll see what it means for the rest. Minus them. I don't know the exact number, but minus them today if they were equal weighting. Oh, let me explain to you. Equal weighting. There is an equal weighting NASDAQ 100. It was flat today. You got me? The NASDAQ100 QQ with the ridiculous weighting was up more than six tenths of one percent. That's what we mean. So we are watching this like a hawk. And I've been telling my peeps. If there's a point in time they get these names, look out. So far, ain't happening. Up next, market wrap, movers of the day, all that stuff today. I'm Gary. This is the one only

Investors Edge. For many men, mental health challenges aren't recognized until they've already taken a toll. Work pressure, financial stress, changing relationships, and traditional expectations around masculinity can quietly wear men down. Often without clear warning signs, in season three of the visibility gap, Dr. Guy Wynch and his guest, Explore how these pressures show up, how to spot them earlier, and how men can access meaningful support. Listen to the new season of the Visibility Gap,

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We're listening to America is talking. Investors edge. He's got to be pleased with that. The crowd is just on his feet here. He's a Cinderella boy. With Gary Colbomb. It comes highly recommended. You're going to feel better if you talk to him.

So, today's market rap is brought to you by, Investment dash models.com. That's Jim Roarback, one of the great market timers. No gray areas with the man you're either in or out of the market with his proprietary indicators. Go check it out. Investment dash models.com. The Dow was up to NASDAQ 91, NASDAQ 195. A few stocks with monstrous influence.

We're amazed that the people that run these indices have not adjusted just a bit. And you can adjust it. you know what they are. They're afraid to adjust it. S&P up 14, transports 51. As we said, red in the oils, red in defense, red in the autos, auto dealers, red in most of retail, housing failed breakouts on a bunch of things. Red on the caterpillar deer in those names. Red in the economically sensitive.

Mixed red and green in the financials. but they just feel like they're tired on the downside, maybe for now. There will be news. Semiconductors mostly read. But it's these names. And you can just watch them all day. I have them separated. And you can see as they move.

Other things will follow too in sympathy, but I'm amazed to see what the indices do on just a 1% move in a stock. It's stunning. Again, it's how much influence they have on those indices. They better keep going. And we better not get more days like we saw during this week when they just obliterate. Oh, by the way, I forgot to mention commodities. The steel stocks just mauled this week.

And of course, as we've said, we're worried about the job market topping and the economy topping. weeks ago we said and we said to you that day we're going to try and time this here we think the job market's going to top here in the next 90 days we're getting that now we got an ADP number not so great and I believe we have a jobs number tomorrow at 830 on a holiday unbelievable how stupid they are you ever seen more stupid people in your life than our government oh Gary how can you say that a 32 trillion bucks allows me to say it so that's the story, the other things were yields. My goodness. The 10-year yield closed today at 3.2-288. That's a 10-year yield. The three-month treasury bill closed at 4.875. This, to me, is the widest inversion I have ever seen. Imagine that inversion. And normally, normally, we're giving you the normally. That is the presage of a damn good drop in economic activity.

And due to the fact we have that, we have economically sensitive stocks getting trashed, the more defensive staples holding up. up better, which is what they call recession-resistant. Now getting some services number not so good, manufacturing not so good, jobs number not so good. We already know about savings rates and credit card usage. We are on watch, ladies and gentlemen. And then there's the unbelievable parking of money. And we're going to use the word parking. sell most everything and let's go buy a little more Facebook and Microsoft even though their earnings suck but their liquid is all hell I do have to say the artificial

intelligent thing is getting a bump it just did it to Google today I'm waiting to hear McDonald's say artificial intelligence to get their stock going even higher that'll be the new thing the problem with and by the way the problem with three-month T-bills is you lose them in three months. If you go out two-year, the two-year treasury is down was 5%. It's down to 3.83, which is above the 10-year still.

That's down from five. Now, to cover the banking thing, it's been quiet. We'll give it that. That's all I can give it right now. It's been quiet. Quieter. The bank stocks and the regionals act like crap still.

But it feels like this second, notwithstanding more news, sellers may have taken a powder. This second. And that's not saying much because they've crumbled. Way down. And by the way, some were still down today while I say that. And will I be brave on them? Hell no.

your handsome and buff toast is not that brave the market's tough enough investing into the banking industry right now that has their arses covered by our government with no capital how does that make you feel in the news well who cares about the women of Afghanistan right

screw him right just because they've been put back into the dark ages Who cares, right? Well, I do. They're human beings. And the moron who runs the White House right now runs the country screwed that up big time and left them for dead.

And you know what they did today? These weasels at the White House, pre-holiday, they put a, what they call a pre-holiday dump of news. You know what it was? They did an independent thing of a bob on Afghanistan. And they kind of pissed off at Biden the way he did it. Biden's come out and blame Trump. Well, Trump said he was going to leave.

How's that for leadership? But I believe in outcomes. Joe Biden left the women of Afghanistan for dead. That's what he did. You see the media covering this? Oh, no. Why would they do that? You see any Afghani women on 60 minutes talking about how they're being raped and how they can no longer go to college and educate themselves?

They're back to being slaves again. No, that's not on 60 minutes. No. So Joe Biden, one of the worst foreign policy people in history, does it again. With a document dump and you know what the fun part of this is? even the lefty media are pissed off at them for dumping the documents late in the day right at the 10 minutes before the press conference

there's your leader yay what does that have to do with you and your money everything this Marxist is running the show and you know what the only thing we got going for us now the Republicans won the house or you know what would happen by now we'd have a wealth tax

we had higher taxes, even more. God only knows what else he would have done. Some of their proposals? Shear insanity. So that was a little bullet dodged. Of course, the Republican snatched victory from the jaws of defeat. Or is it the other way around? Because they don't know when they win how to handle it.

Snatched defeat from the jaws of victory. How's that? Up next. This, that and the other thing or whatever else. I'm Gary. This is the one only investors' edge. For many men,

mental health challenges aren't recognized until they've already taken a toll. Work pressure, financial stress, changing relationships, and traditional expectations around masculinity can quietly wear men down. Often without clear warning signs. In season three of the visibility gap,

Dr. Guy Wynch and his guests explore how these pressures show up, how to spot them earlier, and how men can access meaningful support. Listen to the new season of The Visibility Gap, a podcast presented by Cigna Healthcare. No matter the occasion, snack time should be easy. That's why Skinny Pop popcorn keeps it light, airy and endlessly delicious. Skinny Pop is made from just three simple ingredients, delivering an irresistible taste without being complicated.

Skinny Pop simplicity allows you to freely enjoy as much popcorn as you want. Just open the bag and enjoy. No overthinking, no tough choices. When it comes to snacking, Skinny Pop just makes sense. Deliciously popped, perfectly salted. Skinny Pop, popular for a reason. By the time I hit my 50s, I'd learned a few things, like how family is precious.

Work can always wait. And 99% of people over 50 already have the virus that causes shingles. Not everyone at risk will develop it, but I did. The painful, blistering rash disrupted my life for weeks. Don't learn about your shingles risk the heart. hard way. Talk to your doctor or pharmacist today. Sponsored by GSK.

You're listening to What are we waiting for? Well, what are you waiting for? One, two, ready, go. Investors Edge with Gary Culper. And welcome once again to Investors Edge. Thanks for being with us today. Just another stuff. I hope you

realize that if what just happened to Trump, to a Democrat, the Republicans would be applauding, and the Democrats would be pissed off, but it happened to a Republican, so Republicans are pissed. Just remember, this is all politics. None of them care about you in any way, shape, or form. They don't give a crap about you. They will say anything, do anything to defend their side 1,000%. That's how you get the 32 trillion of debt. they will step all over you. It doesn't matter who they are.

One's worse than the other. I promise you this. This goes for the politicians. This goes for the pundits. It's almost laughable to watch. The hypocrisy is a joke. And you know what? Don't you think it's tiresome?

In the news, I just thought this interesting. Can it be growth? You know what they do, right? Can it be growth? simple CGC, one of the marijuana names we warned you about, remember that? Well, the stock has gone from a high of only 60 down to 1.5. Who warned you, baby? It just casually announces the introduction of Canada's first to market,

cannabis-infused beverage with naturally occurring caffeine under this deep space brand. four new flavors under the tweed brand for your springtime enjoyment ice tea peach with five milligrams of THC have you noticed that these announcements are just matter of fact no big deal it's okay have you noticed that

marijuana the things that get you stoned. All good. Put them in candy. Put them in cakes. Put them in drinks. Yay. Just letting you know,

these are your government's not giving a crap about you again. They want the money. That's why they're legalizing it. I just want you to remember that. These are the same mudhounds that have been saying, Ducatine's going to kill you. But yeah, smoke the weed. That's good.

sure I just want you to remember all this this is what they're doing I want you to remember what they're doing with the lottery just remember nobody wins it's one out of a bazillion the mega millions the powerball you can get hit by lightning two days in a row at the same time and the same place have better odds of that than winning one of these things. But they market to you as you never know. And they have these commercials with family sitting around the table with a scratch off. Oh, look. But just remember, the lottery pays out nothing. The losers pay out everything. We just want you to remember these things. Brought to you by indebted governments. And just remember what the lottery is. It's a tax on people

that don't have the money. If I play the mega millions when it goes over 250 million, I'll play 10 bucks I can afford it. Yay. They're marketing to the poor. And it's a huge tax. Now I believe in individual responsibility. And if you can't afford it, you don't. But we're just trying to let you know.

Now gambling mainstream. It's gamble on everything. And I love when they get these great gambling commercials and how much you're going to win and how much draft kings is going to pay you even though they're not. They're a bookie. They're just a bookie. the losers pay you. But what I love is they do these commercials about you winning. And at the bottom, in letters, the size, you know, when they have the erectile dysfunctioned

commercials at 2 a.m. at night, and at the bottom, you get these little words that say, well, you know, the FDA has not approved this and, you know, may or may not. In other words, it doesn't work. Well, at the bottom of these gambling commercials, guess what our government's having them say, if you got a gambling problem, don't gamble. You get all this? You see what I'm saying to you? You see my worry? And why is gambling legalized now all over the place? Why? So they can collect money. It's all. They don't care about you. If you gamble every dime you have, that screw you. If you smoke weed, that screw you. New York City is a bonkhead. Just walk around New York City right now. It's one big, gigantic

bonnet. Ah, who cares? We just want you to remember this because, unfortunately, this is where we're going. Brought to you by all of them. And that's why we tell you. Inflation, caused by government. Debt and deficits, caused by government. Bubbles

caused by government. Bubble crashes caused by government. Bubbles going crazy, caused by government. Screwing savers with 0% rates, caused by government. What's the problem why we have to talk about them so much because they're taken over. 1.8 trillion was our federal spending in 2006.

Biden proposed 6.8 trillion. Have you ever asked where the hell is that other 5 trillion going towards? How the hell do we have cracks in our sidewalks? How do we have homeless? How do we have? No, really, how do we have homeless? How do we have poverty? How do we have kids that can't eat?

What are they doing in D.C.? And why aren't we keeping them accountable? Why? Because they marketed so well, these two parties. I had somebody say to me the other day that I know. And in respect. You need to take a side. Hell no.

They both suck. And they prove it day to day. Day by day. I hope I'm getting through to you. You happy paying what you're paying for eggs? Oil? Food? You happy about it?

Were you happy when you were getting zero on your investment? Riskless income investments? Were you happy? Just saying, we'll keep covering it. As always, you get to decide tomorrow, I think I'll be on the new now of Fox Business Network. Tomorrow we'll have the best of Gary. You have a great Passover, a great Easter. Happy Passover, happy Easter.

Stay well, be safe, take it easy. and when you're hanging with your children, make sure you give them a big hug, tell them you love them, and just have a great three-day, relax weekend. Watch the Masters. Peace out, all. Thanks for joining us. Bye-bye. This has been Investors Edge with Gary Cult Bomb on BizTalk.

To listen to past episodes or to get in contact with Gary, go to GaryK.com. That's GaryK.com. Success starts with your drive, and American Public University is here to fuel it. With affordable tuition and over 200 flexible online programs, APU helps you gain the skills and confidence to move forward. Whether you're changing careers, starting fresh, or pursuing a lifelong passion, our programs are designed for people who never stop. You bring the fire, APU will fuel the journey. Learn more at APU.apus.edu.edu. By the time I hit my 50s, I'd learned a few things, like how family is precious.

Work can always wait. And 99% of people over 50 already have the virus that causes shingles. Not everyone at risk will develop it, but I did. The painful, blistering rash disrupted my life for weeks. Don't learn about your shingles risk the hard way. Talk to your doctor or pharmacist today. Sponsored by GSK.