Investor's Edge with Gary Kaltbaum - The sloppy week in review [09.25.2026]

Episode Date: September 25, 2026

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Investor's Edge with Gary Coltbaum. Straight talk about you and your money. Now from the BizTalk Studios, here is Gary Coltbaum. And welcome once again to Investors Edge. I'm Gary Coltbaum, your host. A thanks for being with us today. Glad you here, ladies and gentlemen, happy that you are listening. It's Friday.

No, really, it's Friday. September 25th, 2006. Hope you having a good day. We're here hanging out, doing radio, on the iPhone app, lots to cover, serious talk on everything that affects you, the markets, the economy, your job, your industry. The Morlocks in D.C. And we're going to have some things to say on that today. Scam, shams, corruption, you name it, we cover it, including China, Iran. and all that. And if you don't get this radio show in your city,

we'll post at garyk.com. We'll also post on our X feed. And if you don't follow us on X, you should. Just put our name in. And if you'd like to email us, just be nice. Be respectful.

Seriously. Just be respectful. Because we'll be respectful back. Unless you rob the bank today. Or beat up somebody. Or like Hamas. Where do I want to start? So a few things that we call sore thumbs.

The things that really stand out, like the S&P 500, before today, not even down 2%, while a thousand plus stocks were at New Yearly Lows yesterday. And today, at the close, 877 stocks at new yearly lows, today, that's the New York and the NASDAQ. But today, we bounced. Dow is up 478. Keep in mind, we're down. I think I'm going to call it 3,000. points from about six weeks ago. S&P was up 39, NASDAQ 129, NASDAQ 100, 129. The Russell 2000, hardly up. 10% to percent. Advanced declines, 26 to 20 on the New York, 26 to 22 on the

NASDAQ, so nothing special, but certainly better than three to one to the negative. When we are talking sore thumbs, we started out by saying yesterday a thousand new yearly lows. The continued underbelly of the market is an absolute horror show. That horror show today, some things bounced. Why did some things bounce? The other sore thumb. Oil prices came down some today. Why did oil prices come down some today?

Because another, probably the 7th and 67th report that they're talking with Iran. So around noon, the Dow was up like 150, whatever, boom, went up to 300. within 10 minutes and spent the rest of the day up a little down a little but pretty much flatline and as you know oil prices have dictated the horrible action in airlines in cruise lines hotels travel related restaurants retail of all stripes. I could go on and on and on and on to over a thousand new yearly lows and still 877 new lows today. With the S&P and this is the amazing part of the equation. S&P is not even 1% off the highs.

And what does that tell you? The market's makeup has the big institutions going into the most liquid stuff in the market. Simple as that. and it better continue. Microsoft strong today, Apple at highs, that's two of the mags. Just for starters, Mehta's had a good run,

though dropped 27 bucks today after going straight up. Where this stops, we don't know what the next bit of news we don't know. But of course, something else has been going on, and that is yields. Interesting.

because yields have been moving lockstep, lockstep with oil prices. But yields still finished up today. The 10-year yield at 5.184 up 0.22. So it was 5.162 yesterday. The 30 year finished up 0.484, up 0.22.2. to over 5.5%. And they were higher earlier. Friends, that is really something to watch.

Really something to watch. If yields keep going higher, even if oil comes down, then we're talking about yields slash the bond market. has had enough with Trump, Biden before him, Trump before him, Obama before him, and Bush, because that's where it really started. The big gargantuan vertical jump in debt and deficits. And of course, yields have been doing this around the globe.

double decade highs in other countries, whether it be Japan and Asia, a bunch of Europe. And what does that do? Well, I think I saw mortgage rates around 7.3 or 7.4. They were 6.1 a year ago. You want to know why the president's poll numbers are down? Oil. and yields amongst his other stuff, which will cover a little bit today. So they bounce the financials a little bit.

They bounce the cruise lines a little bit. Some of the airlines bounced, but less than thrilled. Less than thrilled. May I repeat less than thrilled? Throughout the show, we'll tell you the leadership, the laggard ship, and other potential things that can move the needle, but leave no doubt front and center. Same thing we've been telling you daily,

the direction of yields and oil prices. I am in the camp that something's going to be done with Iran before the election, but then I see Iran come out and say, yeah, we can do something, but I want all our assets back and take your military out of the Middle East, which is never going to happen. So on that end, I am not so sure anything's going to get done. And if we do end up letting them have all their assets, the billions,

then everything they said about Obama was bull crap. and that would tell me Iran has forced the issue because of elections but that's the story of the day a little bounce not going further than that there are some sore thumbs

on the good side that I'm going to cover but we'll just call it a bounce on the week if I could figure it out S&P was up 1% believe it or not the Dow

up a quarter percent NASDAQ up two up next what else this is the one only Investors Edge Hi I'm Gary Kalpom

hosted a nationally syndicated radio show Investors Edge we're not just handsome radio people we manage investors money for a living specializing in fee-based discretionary money management no big commissions

just a fee on the assets that's managed We also provide a full range of personalized services, including retirement planning, fixed income, and educational needs, all to assist you in achieving your financial goals. Understanding not all individuals have the same needs, we'll carefully evaluate your personal goals to determine a proper investment strategy. If your current approach to investing is not getting you to where you would like to be, call us to make an appointment for a complementary portfolio review. The number to call is 888-4-22-5-5-5. 59. That's 888422-5-5-9. That's 888, 422-5-5-9. Investment Advisory Services offered through Coltbaum Capital Management. It's time to switch on the integrator units and get the brain cells working. You're listening to. Hey, this promises to be fun. Investors Edge. The last bastion

of quality programming with Gary Coltbaum. It doesn't get better than this. All right. By the way, there's a big North Easter coming here in Northeast. I was supposed to go home to Florida Sunday. I change it tomorrow. Hopefully can get out. I was going to a real big food festival tomorrow and that's been canceled. Weather baby. Sore thumbs. Let's talk good. Microsoft. Stock was up. Got to make sure this number. $22 today? I don't think that's right. I'll double check. It was up nicely today. They announced, I got it up 18. They announced a new co-pilot. It's an artificial intelligence thing of a bob that they have. And the market loved it. And I will tell you, oh, that was the week up $22.

On the day was up $18 and change. A breakout would occur on Microsoft of the last eight weeks. It did hit a high today of $51940, which would have been a breakout, but finished below. The old high was $51778, not the yearly high, but close. Stock looks like it wants to go higher. It is a Dow name. and we can tell you six times, 6M40108,

that's about 125 Dow points today, Microsoft. And they continue to have, for a big company, amazing numbers. Adele, it is what we call the strongest away from the semis and the big names. That was up 26 bucks today. but did pull back about 70, 80 bucks over the last five days. Remains a strong name.

Software. Other side. Crowdstrike down eight, four to net down five, net down 10, octa down 11, Palo Alto Networks down 15. Twilio, the strongest name down 24. Why would they pull them back? Anything extended gets pulled back in the same. market. That's what's going on. Z scale down 21 bucks to 193. I think they lost an important

person at the company. Q LYS down 10. So not a great day for software. Switching back up. And again, very tough for me to find a lot of good when you have hardly new year, any new yearly highs and a crap load of new yearly lows. The cryptos, the cripple of new yearly lows. The crypto, been acting well, normal pullback today. Normal little pullback today. As you know, crypto, we still have no clue why. Don't believe anything anybody says. Costco, they reported earnings.

Up 15%, revenues up 11. The stock opened down like 10 bucks and finished up 26. The stock is down from almost 1,100, close at 922. today. They're opening a Costco very close to where I live in central Florida. I'll be hanging there. I'll be hanging. We go to BJ's wholesale, and that's pretty darn good. That's owned by Walmart. The semiconductors had a good day today. They're still acting pretty decent. Good move up in the last week and then settled down the last few days. I think they're still in shape.

Still plenty off the highs, but I'm cool with them right now. You don't want to see the market lose the semiconductors. Anything else sticking out on the good side, I wish I can tell you. And when I mean good side, I'm talking bull markets.

Not Goldman Sachs up 12 today after dropping 200 points. And as you know, one of the outcomes of this new meta muse, go look it up, is they crumbled banks, brokers, regional banks, and the like. Supposedly competition. I was on TV today with Dagan McDowell on Fox Business, and she was explaining how Muse can kick them in the teeth. You know what that means for me this week? I'm going to look that up and see exactly what she means.

We've heard in the past how AI is going to hurt software. Well, a lot of software stocks are still way, way down in their bearish phases. The best software names that have come back, software security for the most part, and a few others. So going into next week, the news is fluid. on the Iran thing. I happen to think that Iran has President Trump over a barrel. There's no way he can agree to what Iran is asking for. No way. Blasting Obama for a billion and a half bucks. They're wanting five, ten, ten, fifteen bill. And they want all of our military out of the Middle East, which just ain't happening.

So I'm wondering if they're playing them for the election. We'll know more. Iran has already come out and said whatever news came out middle of the day today, eh, eh, not happening. It is so vitally important because I paid $4.89 for gas. I get the middle. $4.59 for gas. for the 87 octane.

That is a huge, with quotes, tax hike on the consumer and business. I keep hearing, oh, don't worry, it'll come down. It hasn't. We're being told, well, it's for the good. We're stopping a country from nuclear. well the administration's own intelligence told them that they're not even close in fact years away that was the same time they told us the president and others they're two weeks away so what are we to believe you know where i stand on them they've earned the ire retail little bounce today

nothing great. Up next. The rest. I'm Gary. This is the one only Investors Edge. You're listening to. America is talking.

Investors Edge. He's got to be pleased with that. The crowd is just on his feet here. He's a Cinderella boy. With Gary called Bob. It comes highly recommended. You're going to feel better if you talk to him. And we're once again to Investors Edge.

Thanks of being with us today. as always. You know, I'm looking around my screens and just looking for anything sticking out, sore thumbs, near highs. They gapped it down late July, early August, on earnings and just slowly have moved back up,

back to the highs. The story goes, new phones, and whatever, well, they have a new stuff. CEO and whatever else. The valuation on Apple is one of the highest it's ever been, or at least in the last 10, 15 years. Host the Apple iPod, I think right now it's trading at 246, let's call it 9. It's trading at like 37 times earnings. Apple, throughout a very long time. was averaging 15. We'll see what that means down the road. But I will tell you this. Last

quarter's earnings were up 29%. So that's pretty damn good. I'm impressed, very impressed. To be able to do that at that size remains a big wow. And I still remember a long time ago, the iPhone four or five, I kept saying, who's going to keep doing this? Well, what are we, iPhone 16s now or 17s? And it's not like they improved them a huge amount, but people are getting the new stuff. I would have thought a long time ago, them numbers will be coming down big time. No. So you've got Apple near the highs, Microsoft is getting close.

and I believe that's 2-3 in market cap. NVIDIA is number one. And NVIDIA is not that far away. About 5, 6%. Interesting enough, in 10 months, Nvidia is only up about 6%. Not the biggest the movers because the size of the market cap.

Artificial intelligence stocks, we're still mostly bearish on them bouncing a little bit but but down 50 up 5 is not going to do anything for me and we'd be careful

and as you know one of our big complaints the freaking debt oracle's now trading at 137 down from 345 and their credit default swaps that ensures debt just in case the price to buy them has skyrocketed. That's big investors very worried about how much an outcome. We're predicting nothing. we're outlining everything.

And then back to bonds. Not good. I don't think I'd mention this much. Go look at junk bonds. Go look at the symbol JNK and H-Y-G. These are exchange-traded funds for junk bonds. They've crumbled. You know what the only good news is right now?

If you buy them, you're getting much more yield. and you did six months ago. If you buy a five-year bond now from our government, you're getting over 5%. A 10-year, 5-2, I don't know you have great value versus the five-year, by the way. If I was to do it, I'd go five. Oh, wait a minute, I take it back.

The two-year is it 4-9. The only issue is you're taken out in two years that the fields are much lower. In two years, you're not getting the bank for your buck over. time. Five years you're guaranteed for five years that level and the 10 year same. The question is, is that going to be competition for your money? I think the answer is to some yes. Risk free 5.2% risk free. Remember that. Those are two words versus the market which has risk. And may I state for the record the average stock in the last three months?

Oh, there's been a lot of risk. Whether, as I've said, housing, airlines, cruise lines, casinos, hotels, economically sensitive names, restaurants, commodities, exchanges, a ton of the retail, some have crashed. By the way, we're actually a little bit on the amazed side how bad and how far some of these names have dropped. And I'm not even talking Lulu Lemon that's doing its own thing or Nike. I'm talking as a whole. That's why we always tell you, stay on top of things.

The market doesn't care about you nor I. And it's going to do what it wants. And if Nike, think about that. Nike in the Dow is 35 and change hit a high in 21 of 180 180 to 35 on a big brand name and don't get me started on Disney so we'll go into next week with more uncertainty end of quarter closer to the election where the Republicans are just going to get smoked if nothing changes

if the election was today Senate is gone hey good luck and as we have been telling you just unforced error after unforced error after unforced error and I got news for you

we're going to tell you about a other big unforced error, we believe that's just going to cost votes. It's amazing. It's amazing. It's amazing. The gift that keeps on giving to the Dem Party that I don't even know what to say about some of their policies. As much as I can't stand a lot of Trump policies, they make him. look good, but to host the dude from China, a communist, bittime, while you are ripping the Democratic

Party for being communist. You catch in my drift? Oh, we get along great. He's a good friend. He's a good man. He's a big communist. And then you go on TV and say, the Democrats are communist. Which is it? Again, unforced error after unforced error, after unforced error. That loses votes. Come less than 40 days now. I've been asked if a deal comes with Iran and oil starts dropping like Iraq now, would that change the playing field? I'm not so sure. We'll take it. We need it. I'm just wondering if the die has been cast.

And that is not a far reach. So we get, guess what? Not the worst of all worlds. Gridlock for two years. We think. What next? More unforced errors. This is the one only investor's edge.

You're listening to. What are we waiting for? Where are what he waiting for? One, two, ready, go. In the Gester's Edge with Gary Culper. We have been telling you for months. We predicted months ago the Republicans getting smashed because of a clear lack of discipline, unforced errors.

Why do you think about something? Who has been the biggest critic of Joe Biden? I have. And we still are. Joe Biden, the president, and his corrupt family. They engineered, I don't know, $25, $30 million to the family. And then you got the, what's his name, Hunter Byte? I got no use for Joe Biden.

I thought he was a terrible president. We have told you we thought he should have been impeached for what he did at the border. That's putting Americans in harm's way. Of course, nobody cares what we think, but that's all right. But saying that, the president of the United States, Donald Trump, walked a big-time communist, where there's, what, a million Uyghurs, go look it up, in China being held. How about Jimmy Lai, who ran Apple? This is not Apple, the computer company.

But Apple newspaper there, he's in solitary confinement for the rest of his life at the age of 78, 79, or 80. Hong Kong. I love it there. I'm not going back. Because they now have an iron fist over there. Our president of the United States walks this. Oh, wait, excuse me. They've been giving intelligence to Iran that helped kill our soldiers.

You don't think they have? They have. You know who said that? Our president. Yet our president invites him here, gives him the whole setup, and then takes him over to the picture of Joe Biden's picture that they have in this little hall of presidents that doesn't show Joe Biden's face but his auto pen and makes fun of an ex-president. in front of this communist. Now I saw a bunch of maga pundits all happy about that because they're idiots, but the average person is emailing me and is sick to their stomach over it,

especially Joe Biden's got vicious cancer. Again, unforced error. And if you lose one vote in November because of that, it's too many votes. I'm just going to leave it at that. I'm not going to tell you an opinion on that where I'm really sinking in. But think about that. Think about that. This guy is giving intelligence to Iran that has killed our soldiers and now we're up over 800 of our soldiers,

injured some maimed. And he's my friend. He's a great guy. He's a wonderful guy. The last president, let's laugh at him. You catch in my drift? I don't even know what to say. I'm almost speechless. Not. All right. That's enough of that.

Back on point next week. Not a lot of earnings next week. Fed's done for a few more weeks. Here's what we are watching, kids. Those yields. It has been more than a slow drift higher. It's been more than a slow drift. We do not want to see a big move higher from here.

We don't think the market that's been working can take it. Let us hope. Something breaks. so oil can really plunge, get these yields down. But if oil plunges and yields don't go down, I repeat. That's the market looking at something more nefarious. And there's your housing market, your debt market, where AI, we've got like three and a half trillion of debt with a bunch off the books.

Oh, and they added up this $365 trillion of global debt. Only $365 trillion. We're going to be ready for anything. We will keep you up to date on what's working, what's not, what's turning up, what's turning down, what's bottoming, what's topping, what's ascending, what's descending. And based on what, which is less important than the actuality. We don't try to rationalize why, but we do know that on August 5th, oil bottomed, market topped, travel topped, housing topped, consumer topped, a lot topped. So we do believe if oil can really top, we'll get some better. But then there's that yields.

If we're on this show telling you, yields are still going higher, even though oil prices are coming down, you'll be hearing from us. I don't think that would be good news, because I will promise you, the direction of money and the oscillation of money and which way money is going is going to matter a lot to the markets and if yields keep going higher the Fed will have to play catch-up

that's the tightening of money and quite often markets are not happy with it and I will tell you this the underbelly of the markets already is not we'll be doing the webcast this weekend shown it all. We'll have a great weekend drive carefully.

If you're in the Northeast, be careful. And when you get home, look, do what we do. Make sure you hug your family, hug your children. They will feel better. You'll feel better. I promise they will be well. Peace out all. Bye-bye.

This has been Investor's Edge with Gary Cult Bomb on BizTalk. To listen to past episodes or to get in contact with Gary, go to GaryK.com. That's GaryK.com.