Investor's Edge with Gary Kaltbaum - The Strong Market Week In Review [07.12.2024]
Episode Date: July 12, 2024garykaltbaum.com...
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Investor's Edge with Gary Coltbaum.
Straight talk about you and your money.
Now from the BizTalk Studios, here is Gary Cultbaum.
And welcome once again to Investors Edge.
I'm Gary Colbom, your host.
A thanks of being with us today.
Glad you here, ladies and gentlemen, happy that you are listening.
It is, what is it, July 12th, I think, 2004.
It is Friday.
and is always a heck of a lot to do, a heck of a lot to cover.
In case you don't know, this is serious talk on everything that affects you.
We will do markets, the economy, jobs, your industry, Washington, D.C., the election, whatever necessary we will do.
Ladies and gentlemen, we had to change it up a little bit today.
We typically tape the show after the market close.
that way you know everything about the market close but i am up in new york and on a personal note as you know
i deal with elderly family my mother is in the hospital right now my father needs to be taken care of
to a certain extent so we're juggling a few things today so you get the point so as of this second
It is just turning 1.30 p.m.
Two and a half hours before the close.
My humble apologies up front, but I'm sure you know, and I believe everybody agrees, family first.
Everything else is secondary.
So, for starters, and yesterday we were full of the markets as much as possible.
We'll talk a little bit about D.C. in the election a little bit.
As I speak, Dow's up over 400, S&P up 58, NASDAQ getting back 215 of the 360 points from yesterday.
A good day for the semiconductors after getting trounced yesterday.
The big point, though, was on yesterday.
Something happened that we haven't seen in quite a while.
In fact, it was the opposite of everything we have been telling you,
but also what we've been saying could potentially happen.
You never know.
Yesterday, an inflation number came out.
Just so you know today, an inflation number came out,
which was worse than the inflation number yesterday,
but the bond market continues to cooperate.
The 10-year yield is inched down to 4.191.
And what happened yesterday was simple.
Every day we've been coming on this show for quite a while
and telling you how narrow the market has been.
Every day we've been saying seven stocks are 33% of the S&P 500
and 50% of the NASDAQ 100,
and they've been doing not the heavy lifting,
but all the lifting.
Yesterday, whatever the reason,
those can say it's because of the inflation number,
the ability for the Fed to lower rates,
which they could have done anyhow.
But under the motto of ours,
it's not the news, it's how things react.
to the news, the broad market jumped. Best way I can put it. It jammed. Best way I can put it.
It's not like it's the biggest numbers in the world, but you got two and three percent moves from the small and the midcaps.
You've got, we've complained about the housing and housing related as of recent. They just
gapped up yesterday and they further it today. Economically sensitive areas and names. We've been
telling you how weak they have been in downtrends of differing levels, whether it be names like
United Rentals, some of the building and construction names, you name it. They got jammed to the
upside doesn't necessarily change the complexion, but when the broad market, the breadth of the
market, the most of the market, number one, stop going down, which is what they were doing,
and not only stop going down, start to get going, that's the broad market move, which led
into today. And I can tell you the doubt is at a new yearly high. I only have one stock.
in the Dow at a new yearly high this second in Amgen.
So some heavy lifting going on there also.
But we do not want to shrug what we are seeing.
And in markets typically index-wise, new highs will beget new highs.
And we'll just see where we want, where this takes us.
My surprise today is not that the NASDAQ and the semiconductors
have bounced. It was a really bad day yesterday. My surprise is pretty darn good bounce,
but you're in that type of market, but the most important part, and I show this all the time
when we do our little webcast. We have been able to show a NASDAQ heading from the lower
left corner to the upper right corner while the advanced declines were from the upper left corner
to the upper from the lower right corner then you all get that that changed yesterday as the
market brawned out simple as that financials better what another area the regional banks
they woke up.
Also, they've been dead, and by the way, still way,
way off the highs of February a year and more than a year ago because of the Silicon Valley deal.
But we just want to repeat, every day we would show up for the markets.
And every day I would look at the same areas that would just beat red every day.
And we have our screens set up separated by sector and areas.
And the same areas beat red every day.
The transports, the rails, the truckers, the industrials, the housing, the housing-related.
A lot of the financials, a lot of the retail.
By the way, there's still plenty of retail that act like crap.
and the list goes on and on.
We just want to repeat.
They stopped going down and they're rallying up now in differing levels of getting back some of their losses,
but also some names have come straight up.
There's a couple of housing names that are at new yearly highs in two days.
and that's what we mean when we say to you
we got a little jam going on in the market
symbol GRBK
it's called green brick partners
boom straight up
from 56 to 64
in two days
a housing stock
a KB homes
KBH
66 to 76
in two days
jammed.
And again,
we don't really
care about reasoning,
but we do this little radio show here,
so we give you what we believe to be
the reasoning
that the Fed
right now
is all clear to lower
their rates and play catch-up.
Why?
They're at 5.5% on their low end,
and the 10-year yield
is it 4.189 as I speak.
So they can easily lower rates
and markets pretty much love that.
Now, I do want to let you know
you will hear the market as expensive as all heck.
You will hear the Buffett indicator.
Just so you know, there is a Warren Buffett indicator out there
when the market is worth this much versus GDP
it's overpriced and look out.
Well, I can tell you that Buffett in the Cater went into big bright alert months ago.
Guess what?
The market's still going higher.
So where it stops, we don't know, how far it goes, we don't know.
All we know is that yesterday the market woke up, the broad market, while the bigger
cap stuff got trashed. Today, the bigger cap stuff, having a pretty decent comeback of yesterday,
have to think they're going to do some backing and filling though and probably some time and price
in here. We probably think that there's going to be a little bit of relative weakness there.
and what we do watch right now is the broad market.
What's going to show up?
What's going to show leadership?
It's two days old.
Make that a day and a half.
I'm Gary.
This is the one only Investor's Edge.
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It's time to switch on the integrator units and get the brain cells working.
You're listening to.
Hey, this promises to be fun.
Investors Edge.
The last bastion of quality programming.
With Gary Coltbaum.
It doesn't get better than this.
And welcome once again to Investors Edge.
It is almost 140 p.m.
Again, our apologies, we are doing the show.
I think we maybe once or twice done it this way,
much earlier in the market day.
But family calls right now.
And we just wanted to get this done early.
My mom has, hey, she's 91.
That's the best way I can explain it to you.
She's 91.
Dad's going to be 93.
God bless it.
He keeps complaining.
I keep telling him he's beaten the average male by God knows how much.
I keep telling him I know 75-year-old people that can't take care of themselves.
He's going to be 93.
I don't think I can explain it enough to him.
So we're doing a little taken care of tomorrow.
On top of all this, as you know, is a brisk.
from my grandson.
If you want to see a picture of him,
I posted one on my Twitter feed,
which is now X.
Amazingly,
I posted a picture of my grandson,
and I don't know how this works,
but that picture now has 83,000 views.
83,000 views.
That's pretty darned.
darn good. And it's a good looking kid if I must say so myself. Rees Daniel,
Coltbaum, alive and kicking. And we're going to do everything possible, make sure he's got a
great life. As I speak, Dow's up 450. S&P up 62. I've got to get used to the fact that
the Dow is up 450 and it's only 1.1%. I got to get used to that fact.
It's only 1.1% at 4.50.
And again, I just want to do some repetition here to give you an idea what's going on.
Home Depot.
Just an example.
The last four quarters earnings, down 8, down 10, down 15, down 5.
Revenue, year over year, every quarter, has been down.
It's not good.
And guess what?
Until two days ago, the stock had done nothing.
in a year
Home Depot.
In fact, by the way,
you've got to go back to June of 21.
Two days ago,
June of 21,
stock hasn't done anything.
Three years.
Well, in two days,
it is gone
from 344 to
19 points.
Let's call it 20.
It's like 135 Dow points
in two days.
for a very relatively weak stock.
And by the way, still way off the highs of April.
But look how many down points a Home Depot is.
That's what we mean.
A caterpillar, it's been pretty weak.
Stock has gone from 382 down to 321 two days ago.
it's up $16 in two days.
100 and something, Dow points.
Still weak, but guess what?
Look what it does for the Dow.
United Health, in the Dow.
Stock was $5.55 in December.
It's still at 512 today.
But guess what?
In the last two days, plus 22 points.
Dow points.
let's call that about 140 Dow points.
So that's how they end up moving things.
And it all counts, it's all real.
And as I said, the Dow is at a new yearly high.
I've got Amgen at a new yearly high,
and I just went through all 30.
Not one other stock is in a new yearly high in the Dow.
By the way, Amgen earnings down 1% last quarter.
but at any moment in time
market doesn't give a crap
McDonald's
brutal bare market McDonald's
brutal bare market the last six seven months
stocks even gone up 11 points
let's call that
70 Dow points
there you go
so we also going to have to differentiate
okay this is rallying in a bare
market. Oh, this is rallying, not a leader. And that's what we're going to be disseminating and
differentiating and all that fun stuff. But on a broad basis, things are picking up. And we will
find things. We'll address them and see how it goes. But we do want to point out also
earnings season.
Wells Fargo's down
6% today on their earnings.
JP Morgan is even
down a buck and a half on their earnings.
It was down foreign change, but a stronger
market helps that.
Citigroup down a buck
30. About 2.5%
on their earnings.
So you got some banks down today,
market doesn't give a crap.
The market cares about
and for a long while, easy money or not easy money.
And we're getting easier.
First, the market conditions with the 10 year going from 5 down to 4.2.
And now I'm letting you know, and I don't pull any punches on the Fed.
This just gives them the green light.
It gives them a big green light.
Now, whether or not they lower rates or not, the market,
is thinking they are. More importantly, the market already is. And that for us, that's what does the trick.
Getting back on some things, very impressed with some comebacks today in semiconductors. And I say that because it has been the leading group.
That said, wonder if yesterday's highs are going to be the highs for now.
now, not sure just yet. And in these days of the artificial intelligence, these days of
companies just announcing artificial intelligence and their stocks get juiced, these days where
they kind of like are akin to 99 where a company would announce, hey, we're going to add
dot com to our name and it would goose the stock. We'll see. Now, I also want to mention on the
AI, there are people coming out and saying it is about as overhyped as can be and they're
going to crash.
We're just giving you all aspects and all thoughts.
And I'm bringing this up because a couple of these people are brilliant.
Don't need to mention who, but there's certain people I follow in the technology arena.
They think it's overhyped.
The spending ain't going to last.
And look out below.
Do you know how I look at it?
File manager, watch the stocks.
Simple as that. Up next, we'll continue.
I'm Gary. This is the one only investor's edge.
Guys, it's no use putting it off.
The best time for an underwear refresh is now.
Tommy John underwear is designed for a perfect fit that stays put all day.
Their zero-chafe thanks to four times more stretch than competing brands,
and their innovative horizontal quick-draw fly is a game changer.
With over 30 million pairs sold, there are thousands of men out there more comfortable than you.
Don't settle for less.
Go to Tommyjohn.com today for 25% off your first order with Code Comfort.
That's Tommyjohn.com code comfort.
Tommy John.
Comfort perfected.
This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card.
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like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect.
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The Capital One Venture X card.
What's in your wallet?
Terms apply, lounge access is subject to change.
See Capital One.com for details.
This episode is brought to you by Spreaker.
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We're listening to.
America is talking.
Investors Edge.
He's got to be pleased with that.
The crowd is just on his feet here.
He's a Cinderella boy.
With Gary Colbomb.
It comes highly recommended.
You're going to feel better if you talk to him.
And welcome once again to Investors Edge.
Again, our humble apologies.
We are doing this show.
Right now it's 1.48 p.m.
Market is still open.
We've got some family things got to address.
Got a mother, 91 years old in the hospital.
A father that takes care of himself but needs a little oversight and just want to be ready.
Usually we take this show in the 4.5.
clock hour so we're just going to do a little bit early but i have to tell you since we started
the show the dow has gone up from up 400 it's up 490 today and just remember 490 is just 1.2
percent keep that in mind and just keep also in mind a 500 dollar stock in the Dow that goes up 1%
just 1%.
It's about 30 some odd down points.
1%, 5 bucks,
5 some minimum, yeah, about 35 down points.
And as we just said a couple of minutes ago,
some down and out stocks
that are still in what we call
not an uptrend.
We'll use it that way.
have made 100 point Dow moves in three days,
inclusive of today.
It's got to be careful about that.
And as I also said, with the Dow at new highs,
I have one Dow stock at new highs.
But the bigger story again, and to repeat,
the broad market woke up yesterday.
That's it.
the broad market woke up yesterday this is the areas that we have been whining complaining about
for a very long while the move right now is what we would call nascent notice the big
the big word but it's a start it is the areas we've been on this show telling you
like rails truckers well the airlines are still weak by the way the airlines are not
participating. Let's talk rails, truckers, economically sensitive, construction, housing, housing
related, decent group of financials. Let's say some of the retail. By the way, a bunch of retail
are not participating, but they woke them up. And we're now seeing it in the advanced declines.
We would come on this show and say to you, by the way, the NASDAQ was up 200 today, but the
advanced decline was a thousand up, three thousand down. Catch in the drift. Today again,
26 up, 11 down on the NASDAQ, 30 up, eight down on the New York. That's good stuff.
The other part of the equation, after yesterday's, for lack of a better word, trashing of the
NASDAQ, pretty darn good comeback. And may I state for the record, I'm actually surprised.
How good of a comeback, especially in the semiconductors today.
But that's the AI thing.
And we'll see how we finish because, again, it's not even 2 p.m.
And we're doing this show early.
But good stuff.
And when I do my scans now, I have a lot more symbols that I have to write down.
That's the story.
Next week, we'll head into big earnings.
and we'll get some reactions to the upside.
We'll get some reactions to the downside.
But the juice is loose.
The broad market is picked up.
My screens that were beat red every day no longer beat red.
In fact, the opposite.
I could pick out some things that are weak,
but I'd rather accentuate the other way at this juncture.
This started yesterday.
Not the day before it started yesterday.
Just letting you know.
And now we'll see where it decides to take us.
Don't know where it takes us.
We never know how far, how long.
We don't predict.
We don't target.
We just are looking for launching pads that turn into uptreads.
and of course
close our eyes
hold our nose and pray
I'm looking at the semis
as I speak I'm like
big wow
I would have thought
they'd been down
for the count for a while
not so sure anymore
also of note
just picking apart a few things
Apple
you know Apple's part of that big stuff
right
it's up five bucks today
so not everything
not everything
your job this weekend
just like my job.
Check out that new yearly high list.
If you look at investors' business daily when they come out on the weekend,
they separated by groups, see what shows up.
And as always, you get to decide it's your money.
But again, housing jammed for two days.
By the way, housing stocks got back.
in two days what it took three and a half months of downside. Not kidding. Went from
116 the ITB to 97. It's back to 109. Two days. You just never know. As an example, we want to
let you know that the consumer discretionary, which had a rough day yesterday, that's near a new
yearly high that be the xly we want to let you know that the xlf which is the big
financials right at a new yearly high we want to let you know that the regional
the regional banks got some work to do let's not get too excited about them yet but we
found one PNC bank that's a regional that's at a new yearly high so a
Big winds are changing in the market.
The only question, is it fleeting or is it the start of a broad market move?
And if you don't know what I mean by broad market, well, we'll show the advanced declines
versus the indices again this weekend on our little shows that we do.
That'll be of interest.
and we'll be scanning like MedMan this weekend.
And now we segue.
So our biggest complaint is what they're doing to us.
And we pull no punches.
We are fans of none.
We don't have to repeat all that.
The president had a press conference last night.
and it's interesting to note that whatever,
when you have to be measured about how you handle a press conference
and whether you're falling all over yourself,
I think that's an issue.
He called the vice president and vice president Trump.
He introduced the head of Ukraine as Putin.
So there were missteps.
but I've got to repeat the long run.
As you know, I now have a grandson.
I now worry about his long run.
And part of that press conference last night
was the president defending himself.
And he was talking in circles about foreign policy and stuff,
but he jumped in and talked about
what a good job he has done with the debt.
And as you know, we have highlighted that we're now in the twos.
Two trillion dollar deficits on purpose, with no accountability, the debts, the deficits.
And then he went on and on about Trump up next, we'll go on and on,
about it. You'll see what we mean. This is the one to only investors' edge.
Guys, it's no use putting it off. The best time for an underwear refresh is now. Tommy John
underwear is designed for a perfect fit that stays put all day. Their zero-chafe thanks to
four times more stretch than competing brands, and their innovative horizontal quick-draw
fly is a game changer. With over 30 million pairs sold, there are thousands of men out there
more comfortable than you. Don't settle for less. Go to Tommyjohn.com today for
25% off your first order with code comfort.
That's Tommyjohn.com code comfort.
Tommy John.
Comfort perfected.
This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card.
Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect,
like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect.
Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase,
bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination.
Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide.
The Capital One Venture X card.
What's in your wallet?
Terms apply.
Lounge access is subject to change.
See Capital One.com for details.
This episode is brought to you by Spreaker.
The platform responsible for a rapidly spreading condition known as podcast brain.
Symptoms include buying microphones you don't need,
explaining RSS feeds to confused relatives,
and saying things like,
sorry, I can't talk right now, I'm editing audio.
If this sounds familiar, you're probably already a podcaster.
The good news is Spreker makes the whole process.
simple. You record your show,
upload it once, and Spreaker distributes
it everywhere people listen. Apple Podcasts,
Spotify, and about a dozen apps
your cousin swears are the next big thing.
Even better, Spreaker helps you monetize your show with ads,
meaning your podcast might someday pay for
well, more microphones.
Start your show today at
spreeker.com. Spreaker,
because if you're going to talk to yourself
for an hour, you might as well publish it.
You're listening to
What are we waiting for?
you waiting for one two ready go
investors edge with gary colpah
and what once again to investors edge
it's uh 2 p.m uh dow's up 459
s and p.66 very good day uh broad market
good day the stuff that wasn't working good day
jammed to the upside in some of those areas
Good day.
The surprise for me is the pretty good comeback so far in the semis, not all.
But we segue, all the media last night that was, by the way, picked on.
And we're now finding out that certain media was giving the questions to the president.
We just found out he's not had a cabinet meeting in nine months.
We just found out when we did have cabinet meetings, it was scripted.
so none of his cabinet can give him any input, but the media doesn't bring up any of the BS.
I remember under Trump, it was a 24-7 colonoscopy of Trump and what they believe to be his BS.
And I keep hearing about the record of Biden, the record this and the record that.
And it's, I can't tell you how nauseating it is it is.
at this juncture. And I mean nauseated. Our record. The one we look at, the one that we believe
matters most is the long run. And we have used the terminology on this show. All they're doing is
creating another credit card with a higher credit limit to pay for the last one. Joe Biden last
night stated he has a great record on the debt. He is breaking all track records and by far
on yearly deficits. And it's been done on purpose. Nothing by accident. We're in the twos.
They're spending more than $2 trillion more than they're supposed to. That's number one.
we're at 35 trillion of debt now
this does not include
OZs on social security
and Medicare which the government
programs and the government admits
oh we're in trouble going forward
and the media
do not simply ask
why are you not because they never use the word lying
unless it's Trump
how about just saying why aren't you telling the truth
on your record on the debt.
Here are the numbers.
We have been told by the Congressional Budget Office
that we are guaranteed
to go from 35 to $56 trillion,
another $21 trillion in 10 years.
Guess what that means?
65 to 70.
Remember, the Congressional Budget Office,
all they do is catch up to me.
and my numbers.
I don't have analysts going out.
I don't have a thousand analysts going out to figure out numbers.
It's simple.
I take out my rusty abacus, and I can figure it out.
It's not going to be 56.
It's going to be towards 70.
How do we know?
Because they're using 2% and 3% GDP.
Nah, it ain't going to happen.
They're using, oh, no recession.
ain't going to happen.
What about shocks?
They're not using anything of shocks to the system.
They're not using what if interest rates skyrocket.
They're using perfection.
And the question is, and it's a simple question.
At what point does all this taunting
of the economy, of markets, of your industry, your job,
at what point does all this taunting blow up?
I don't know.
We've never given you a date.
We never have said to you, oh, at 30, at 20, at 25, at 35, at 35.
We really do not know.
We have been able to, just take.
take out another credit card with a higher credit limit to pay for the last one.
What a concept.
So we're just letting you know we're going to say on top of it.
And just so you know, without bias, who did we give hell on also?
Donald Trump.
George Bush, remember the compassionate, compassionate conservative, George Bush and his spending.
We expected it from Obama.
We've always expected it from the very lovingly spending left, but it's also been the right that has become the left on spending.
And that's how you get to where we are.
So just letting you know, markets are acting just fine.
The markets are now broadening out.
Don't worry, everything's okay.
We're just letting you know.
Six billion in change was added to our debt today and grows a little bit every day.
And the journalists are not asking about it.
And nobody gives a crap.
We'll keep harping on it.
And we hope there is never that day.
But Joe Biden came out again last night.
And we couldn't care less how much he slips up.
we give a crap that he's lying about his record.
They said his foreign policy speech last night, terrific.
Tell that to the women of Afghanistan.
The media didn't mention that some of the areas of the world are on fire under Joe Biden.
Yet the media now wants as you know what out.
Don't you love things?
Anyway, thanks for your indulgence today.
It's only 2 o'clock.
Market can change.
It's up nicely.
Have a great weekend.
Drive carefully.
When you get home, do like we do.
Quite simple.
Make sure you hug your family.
Make sure you hug your children.
Make sure you hug your mom, especially if she's in the hospital.
We'll see you on Monday.
Take care, everybody.
Have a good day.
Bye bye.
This has been Investor's Edge with Gary Cultbaum on BizTalk.
To listen to past episodes or to get in contact with Gary, go to GaryK.
That's GaryK.com.
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