Investor's Edge with Gary Kaltbaum - The tariff looney bin [05.29.2025]

Episode Date: May 29, 2025

https://garykaltbaum.com/

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These products are not intended to diagnose, treat, cure, or prevent any disease. Investor's Edge with Gary Coltbaum. Straight talk about you and your money. Now from the BizTalk Studios, here is Gary Cultbaum. And welcome once again to Investors Edge. I'm Gary Coltbaum, your host day. Thanks for being with us today. Glad you're here, ladies and gentlemen, happy that you're listening.

It's Thursday. It's May 29th. It's 2025. And may I state for the record, today was one of those days. Family, my younger son, Eric, calls me. I'm at the hospital. They think I have acute appendicitis. They're going to do a cat scan.

If true, I'm going to have surgery. That was the beginning of the day. Fortunately, fast forward all the way through. Nothing on the cat scan. They thought maybe kidney stones, no. They don't know. So they're looking at the digestive system. I'm not going to delve into that for you.

But my wife already got on a plane. I was all set for 7.45 tonight on my usual Delta flight. But my wife's up there. He's doing good. Not going to fly there tonight. That was part of the day today. And we segue. By the way, this is Investor's Edge, serious talk on everything that affects you with no bias, a gender ulterior motive.

We can't stand any of them. And we cover politics, markets, the economy. economy markets politics. Why do we do politics now? Because they are interlopers. 37 trillion of debt says so. And we have lots to talk about on that today. We'll talk about the economy, your job, your industry, and anything that comes to mind, ladies and gentlemen. And if you do not get this radio show in your city, we'll post it at garyk.com. We'll also post it on our Twitter feed, which is now X. And you don't follow us on X. You should. And if you'd like to email me, just be nice.

must tell you, in the last couple of days, I've had a few people vehemently disagree with me, but very respectfully, and we appreciate that. They disagree with me on the things I have been saying about President Trump and the tariffs. Of course, they're Trump fans, so they're happy when I applaud him for the things that we think he does very well. And we wish everybody gets out of the tank and just deals with policy, but in this day and age of the celebritism of politicians, we don't know why, not much you can do about that. So a crazy day. Let's go backwards yesterday. First off, NVIDIA reports earnings and the stocks up strong, futures are up. And as we left the air, out of nowhere, the Dow goes up like 500 points. And we find out that there was a court

that knocked down President Trump's tariffs. Now, I must admit, I'm not sure which ones they're even talking about, but I believe it had to do with whatever tariffs he had on after the Liberation Day

from the... beats the hell out of me. But the market loved that. And by the way, it gets weird. And the Dow goes a 500. And last night, I do my usual. At 3 a.m., my dog Winston, who's sitting here watching me right now, just nudges me. He lays down right into my leg.

He needs contact with me, and I wake up at 3 a.m. I look at futures. Dow was up 500. NASDAQ was up 400. We're going to have this great day. All because, let me tell you what it was, NVIDIA, but the tariff. We're going to go buy-bye and his ability to put on tariffs. Interesting, huh?

The market sold off, had a bad drop in the 12 o'clock hour, fixed itself up a little bit, and we had an up day. But at 3 o'clock today, it came out that another court reinstated his tariffs. I mean, is our court system that's screwing? that one can do this and then the next one and then the next one, the next one, and who knows what, whatever. So I'm thinking, oh, the tariffs are back on, the market's going to get hit. Because, but then I realized the market already dropped, and that was that. So we had this day where it was all over the map as far as tariff lands.

And I was thinking to myself, okay, how can I wrap this? up so I don't have to discuss tariffs again today with each and every one of you. That's what I was thinking to myself. How can I wrap this up? I'm going to wrap it up with short to the point and succinct on a couple of other weird things, ladies and gentlemen. The first weird thing is the Republicans applauded that the next court reinstated his ability to put on tariffs. Imagine those tariffs before the pause crashed the market. Right before the crash, the market was very weak because we were getting all kinds of uncertainty from the president changing his mind every day on numbers, on countries, on products, exemption this, no exemption that. It was kind of insane. And then he crashed the

market. And then over the weekend, he realized I crashed the market. We can't have a crashed market. He changed his stance. And they were going to do the pause on Monday. But it got leaked. So they said, no, no, no, no. They did the pause on Wednesday. The market bottomed. But the China thing was still out there. And they got rid of that. They took it. They took it down from crazy 145 to whatever the hell it is right now because I don't I think it's 30. But the Republicans were happy. Hey, the first court bad, the second court is good. They're happy that if the president ever decided, and this is it if ever decided to go back to that liberation day of tariffs, we're going to drop five to ten thousand down.

points and we're going to go into a nasty contraction in the economy. That's what was happening. I'm giving you facts. Commerce was stopping. Amazon stopping movement. Auto dealer stopping movement. I can go on and on the things that were going on if it stayed there just for a couple of weeks. But they got to the president and fortunately he changed his mind or forced to because of the markets and what they saw. But the Republicans, these conservatives, were happy that he now has the ability to crush the markets and the economy. It's stunning to watch. So let me leave you with this and then we'll move on. We never predict here. You know, the people on TV that say, oh, at the end of the year, the Dow will be so-and-so.

I'm always amazed the first week of January. They tell you where things are going to be at the end of December. We don't predict here. But what we do every now and then is we extrapolate. We believe in past performance. I used to be a very good greyhound dog track handicapper. past performance. Was it a three-eighth race? Does he have the inside or outside? Who is he running against? Did he move up in class, move down in class? What track was he on? Is it Flagler, Hollywood? And I was really good at it. I didn't do much with the horses. All we can tell you is that when he had the liberation tariffs on, the market crashed. And the economy was going.

And the market knew it. And the market bottomed when he got rid of them. So let's hope he doesn't get in his mind again to crash the market and crash the economy. And you all know the people that emailed me, a ton of people were emailing me in those a couple of weeks. My business is going to, you know what. I'm going to have to shut down. I was getting a bunch of that. some big business was emailing me telling me what was going on so all these people that him yippie

and yang that he now has the ability to tax the living crap out of you and business via tariffs we'll leave it just at that and we wish him well we're rooting for him we hope he gets it right but this tariff thing is an absolute freaking nightmare. It's a nightmare. And a nightmare of lies also. Oh, China pays for the tariffs. Oh, no, now it's Walmart that pays for the tax. They've been outed.

Let's put it that way also. And this is all about the markets, ladies and gentlemen. I can promise you that. Up next, speaking of the markets, today. And we'll answer the thousand emails. emails on NVIDI. I'm Gary. This is the one only Investors Edge. Hi, I'm Gary Kalbaum, hosted a nationally syndicated

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investment advisory services offered through call bomb capital management. Hi, I'm Dr. Jake Goodman, host of Beyond the Script, the podcast where I sit down with pharmacists to answer the health questions you didn't even know you could ask at the pharmacy counter. In this episode, we are diving into gut health with CVS pharmacist Victoria Motola, who explains why so many of us live with stomach issues we should not accept as normal. A lot of what I see is just like chronic bloating, chronic stomach aches. Like I get a stomach ache every time that I eat. And it just becomes like a lifestyle where, oh, yeah, you know, I just have a stomachache

every day. Or I'm constantly feeling like gassy. And all of those things are not something that generally, if you have a healthy gut, you should be living with. So that's when we deep dive. We deep dive into your medication. We deep dive into your OTC medication. And then at that point, we can probably identify something that we can change.

change. Hear the full conversation, plus some fascinating facts about how gut health affects so much more than just your stomach on Beyond the Script, a podcast from CVS Pharmacy and IHeartRadio. Listen now wherever you get your podcasts. Reese's peanut buttercups, they go perfectly with music. Podcasts. And welcome back to the show. Even nature sounds. Oh, and the thing where someone crinkles tissue and whispers.

at you. Hello. Look, I'm not here to judge what you listen to. I'm here to judge you for not eating Reese's while you listen to it. Reese's. Ashley, go back to the nature sounds. Nice. Yeah, that's really nice.

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You're listening to. Hey, this promises to be fun. Investors Edge. The last bastion of quality programming. With Gary Coltbaum. It doesn't get better than. this okay so we're about to give you are technical analysis of and video throw in a little bit of fundamental analysis also as well as the

earnings thing first off we believe in video very much learned from Apple by sandbagging numbers what we mean by that is their guidance was for just a 20% earnings growth. And we said to, I believe we said to yesterday, I'm pretty sure we said to you yesterday, that they'll beat, and they beat by like 10%, which is a good number. And the stock today finished, well, I'm not going to give it finish yet.

It hit 143.49, so it's another 4.7, was up about $8.30. And may I state for the record, that's a big move for a big stock like Nvidia but it finished only up $3.93. It is still trading below last June's high of 140.76 which means it's certainly below the highs that were close to each other of November and January. those highs missed by 24 cents. Here's a good guess. On a technical basis,

I think the stock's going to be range bound in here still. You have a deceleration of earnings. Deceleration. What do we mean by that? Well, the last four quarters earnings growth, year over year, 152, 103, 71 33

so their earnings growth is decelerating and that's the reason why the stock has done nothing for almost 12 months now the market already flushed out and by the way that is not a rib on the company they've had very strong growth and they're very big now and it's tougher to grow those earnings sales growth

122, 94, 78, 69. By the way, 69 is still very strong sales growth. But guess what next quarter looks like? Probably in the 40 or 50. So more deceleration. So I suspect we're going to remain range bound, but a higher range. when the market weakened, this thing fell below 100. In the crash, it fell below 100, but reversed very quickly.

We don't think unless things go to crap, it has any chance to go back to 100. And when we mean by things go to crap, well, something really bad happens with the company or the market goes into a real big bear market. We would suggest to you that I think it's probably going to be. tough to take it down to 120, but I think it could go 125, 130 on the downside, but we also think the upside's probably limited right now. This is a guess. This is a guess. And range bound just means it's going to go back and forth, not in an up trend, not in a downtrend, but just the backing and filling in the back and forth. That's what we think's going to happen here.

again, it's a guess. If that changes, we'll let you know. I will tell you, the CEO sounded like the guy who runs micro strategy and says we're going to go $13 million on Bitcoin. I was not thrilled with that. When the CEO says there was going to be, I think billions of robots, billions, not millions, not tens of millions, but billions. that never thrills me. Also need to let you know that he's selling 6 million shares of stock. Though it's a planned sale, I don't believe he should sell.

Because when you're out there as CEO talking billions and billions, oh, but I'm selling 6 million shares. I don't think that looks too good, does it? And by the way, just because there's a planned sale does not mean you have to sell. just like when you hear about a buyback, oh, we're going to buy back a billion dollars worth stock. Doesn't mean they have to. They're not locked in. Typically buyback, say, from time to time, and we don't have to. It's at our discretion.

So just let you know, I'm thinking probably low end 130 and maybe it goes to 145, but I think it's going to be real tough to take out those old highs, which is around the 153. I will tell you that the longer it sits around and goes rangebound and then breaks above the 153, oh, I'll be in it. You remember when it broke above that 500, and we said, that'll be a big breakout. That was January of 24. Well, we went right in it. But as of now, rangebound. That's all range bound.

But just a very weird day today, hot. Then they sold it off. I was looking for news around the noon hour. I mean, they really was selling it down. But stiffened up at the end of the day. If I was to say there were other things that were kind of wrong today, yeah, you had like Spotify down 28, CrowdStrike down 10, Netflix down 25.

You had some leading names, leading growth names. getting smacked around a little bit. On the other end, and still not good, Salesforce.com finished down 9 on their earnings was down 20. That came back, but you want deceleration? Earnings are up 6% the quarter before, 21%. It's not what you want to see.

You want acceleration with the big ACC. Other things noticing? 10-year yield, down. again. This is good news. Very important. We've gone from 4-6-something to almost 4-4 in five days. That doesn't hurt. And I can tell you, we watch every tick in the bond market these days because it's movie importante. Speaking of the bonds, Jay Powell visited Donald Trump today in the White House. and we're getting word that the president told Jay Powell respectfully we think you're wrong on rates but we think Donald Trump is wrong on rates.

Jay Powell shouldn't lower rates just yet. He's good where he is and just let the bond market dictate. The president does not realize that it's not the Fed Fund rates that's going to really matter. It is going to be the 10-year yield that matter. most. That is your mortgages and your loans. Fed funds do matter, but the only time J-Powell really matters is if he's printing money and buying up bonds and taking real yields down. So we think the president's completely wrong on that, but he don't care what we think. And even if we had his ear, he would laugh at us.

When we tell you by lowering rates it could raise rates, we get it. Up next, what else? We'll cover everything. I'm Gary. This is the one that only investors edge. Hi, I'm Dr. Jake Goodman, host of Beyond the Script, the podcast where I sit down with pharmacists to answer the health questions you didn't even know you could ask at the pharmacy counter. In this episode, we are diving into gut health with CVS pharmacist Victoria Motola, who explains why so many of us live with stomach issues we should not accept as normal. A lot of what I see is just like chronic bloating. chronic stomach aches. Like, I get a stomach ache every time that I eat. And it just becomes like a lifestyle where, oh, yeah, you know, I just, I have a stomach

cake every day. Or I'm constantly feeling like gassy. And all of those things are not something that generally, if you have a healthy gut, you should be living with. So that's when we deep dive. We deep dive into your medication. We deep dive into your OTC medication. And then at that point, we can probably identify something that we can change.

Hear the full conversation plus some fact. Fascinating facts about how gut health affects so much more than just your stomach on Beyond the Script, a podcast from CVS Pharmacy and IHeartRadio. Listen now wherever you get your podcasts. Here's a quick podcast for all you true crime fans. The case of the missing Reese's. It was me at the store with my mouth. Motive? Um, they're Reese's.

What was that going to do? Stop myself. Tune in next time to see if I do it again. Spoiler, I will. That had everything. Reeses, suspense, Reese's. OnDec is built to back small businesses like yours. Whether you're buying equipment, expanding your team, or bridging cash flow gaps. OnDex loans up to $400,000 help make it happen fast. Rated A-plus by the Better Business Bureau and earning thousands of five-star trust pilot reviews, OnDec delivers funding you can count on. Apply in minutes at on deck.com. Depending on certain loan attributes, your business loan may be issued by OnDec or Celtic Bank. OnDec does not lend in North Dakota.

All loans and amounts subject to lender approval. You're listening to America is talking. Investors Edge. He's got to be pleased with that. The crowd is just on his feet here. He's a Cinderella boy. With Gary Colbomb. It comes highly recommended.

You're going to feel better if you talk to him. And welcome once again to Investors Edge. I think there also should be a new rule in Washington, D.C. I think a president should only have 10 parted in any four years because it nauseates me that Biden pardoned. I think Biden pardoned like 2,400 pardons, including his family. Disgusting. But the president is pardoning some really bad people.

And it pisses me off. We believe in equal justice. We're talking markets here. We're talking money. He is pardoning people that absconded, committed financial fraud to the tune of millions and millions and millions of dollars. We just think it's just wrong. I believe a president should have 10 pardons per every four years, it's out of hand. He pardoned these people that I guess have a show. Chrisle's major financial

fraud and we find out that the daughter was at a million dollar fundraising thing for Trump. You tell me how that looks. We just don't like this. We vomited with Biden. And we're looking at, and you can go read who's getting pardoned. And think about this. Imagine Joe Blow committed a crime half as bad as these Crisleys. But he's still in jail, but the Crisleys are out. It's just wrong. That's all.

And I've said this about every president. And let me just say Biden got the championship belt. his family, crooked as crooked can be. Thieves, influence peddlers, scumb bags, sleaze bags, dirt bags. They got pardoned. It pisses me off. Anyway, just letting you know that's in the news today, and I thought it was of important. Also in the news, I got to talk Japan.

Japan's debt is now twice the size. of its economy. And I've already told you they, the government owns a ton of the bond market, a ton of the stock market. And I'm just, and by the way, their bond yields have gone from zero up to three in change because they stop buying up the bonds. That's what happens. Things get normalized. But the Japan, ETF is at yearly highs. Life is so weird right now. You got some European countries in recession, yet strength. And I don't know if it has to do with the euro or what, because the euro's been strong versus the dollar.

But there's just a lot of weirdness going on out there, ladies and gentlemen. And we'll just keep following the bouncing ball, let you know what is, what isn't. I have yet to do my scans today as I just got to. back from dropping the wife off at the airport. She's texting me right now that there's a lot of turbulence flying up to New York. She's texting me right now. I'm never flying again. She's texting me. Anyway, what else sticking out? Boeing. Just so you know, Boeing is at right at a new yearly high. Big volume today. And as you know, Boeing has had their share of troubles.

Going back to the highs of 2019, it was $446, it's 208, there were two tragic air crashes back then. I think one was Indonesia, and I'm trying to think where the other one was. And of course, the CEO completely mishandled it, and he was out. But it seems now they're better. notice the kind of question mark and they're getting some decent amount of orders whether or not they get filled or not because it does take time you don't know

but the market is actually paying up on those orders now I know who is Saudi Arabia was one of the Middle East countries China has indicated that deliveries resume next month ramping up 737s and 7807s on Boeing.

By the way, that 787 Dreamliner, boy, it is great, great, great airplane. So Boeing, and I haven't been able to say that in years at this point in time. That sticks out on a little sore thumb. going back on NVIDIA, am I a buyer of it? I'm not right now. If tomorrow it gets back the highs of today, I'll start thinking about it. That tells me the institutions have a little bit of a grip. But when you're up eight and change and you finish up four, distribution.

Not the end of the world. You know where we stand. Best Buy. Ew. Just things to stay away from. Best Buy earnings down four, revenues down one. Ew. Just pointing things out what to stay away from Burlington. The stock opened up at 260, closed at 227. Institution selling. Guess what? We stay away from. This is how we roll. We try to get a feel for what institutions are doing at any given moment in time. And certain things stick out. Stocks up 20 finishes down 10?

Not good. Distribution. Market had a chance to be up. Sold off. Stocks down 20 finishes up 10. Accumulation. Stock had a chance to be down $20 finishes up 10. Boy, they bought it up to be looked at.

and on and on and on. But I got to tell you, there's so much jello moving on the plate right now, I don't know where to start. It's one of those markets. You did have some big winners today. How about VEEV? Viva Systems, up 44 bucks today to 279. Numbers pretty decent.

Big breakout gap. Medical software. That goes on the screen today. A few things came off my screen today. Uber's one of them. Looks like it topped on very heavy volume today. Bye-bye to Uber. And there were a few others.

We never like seeing big leading stocks getting hit, and they got a few today, but not enough to get me all a-ohish at this juncture, but shall be watched. Gold up today. gold miners not we said a couple of weeks ago we thought maybe gold's gone range bound and now we're one two three four five we're in the sixth week a break below the 50 day moving average done for

now stay above opportunity the glde moving through three 15 and change and three 17 and change another leg up Tesla because you ask Elon must said he's back full time. But I went through the numbers today. Tesla sales are terrible. There are some fundamental analysts that, I'm not making this up, think the stock's worth $258, not 358. Seriously. Now, that's a little crazy number, but there are others that are 150% below. But there's a big bet on this Robotaxi and I read one fundamental guy saying very simply they better sell a lot of robotaxies. If you look at the used car market for Teslas, they're down like 60% in price to get a used Tesla. I know some people that bought it as investments and are getting there.

You know what's you know what it. Stock's acting pretty decent right now. Up next. News of the day. else today. I'm Gary. This is the one the only investor's edge. Hi, I'm Dr. Jake Goodman, host of Beyond the script, the podcast where I sit down

with pharmacists to answer the health questions you didn't even know you could ask at the pharmacy counter. In this episode, we are diving into gut health with CVS pharmacist Victoria Motola, who explains why so many of us live with stomach issues we should not

accept as normal. A lot of what I see is just like chronic bloating, chronic stomach aches. Like I get a stomach ache every time that I eat. And it just becomes like a lifestyle where oh yeah, you know, I just have a stomachache or I'm constantly feeling like gassy.

And all of those things are not something that generally if you have a healthy gut, you should be living with. So that's when we deep dive. We deep dive into your medication. We deep dive into your OTC medication. And then at that point we can probably identify something that we can change. Hear the full conversation plus some fascinating facts about how gut health affects so much more than just your stomach on Beyond the Script, a podcast from CVS Pharmacy and IHeartRadio.

Listen now wherever you get your podcasts. Here's a quick podcast for all you true crime fans. The case of the missing Reese's. It was me at the store with my mouth. Motive? Um, they're Reese's. What was I going to do? Stop myself.

Tune in next time to see if I do it again. Spoiler, I will. Wow, that had everything. Reese's suspense, Reese's. OnDec is built to back small businesses like yours. Whether you're buying equipment, expanding your team, or bridging cash flow gaps, OnDex loans up to $400,000 make it happen fast. Rated A-plus by the Better Business Bureau, and earning thousands of five-star trust pilot reviews,

OnDec delivers funding you can count on. Apply in minutes at on deck.com. Depending on certain loan attributes, your business loan may be issued by OnDec or Celtic Bank. OnDec does not lend in North Dakota all loans and amounts subject to lender approval. You're listening to. What are we waiting for? Well, what are you waiting for?

One, two, ready, go. Action! Investors Edge. With Gary Culper. And welcome once again to Investors Edge. you know some of the things that worry me is when there's excessive froth in speculation usually when you see a lot of that it's at a point where the market is vulnerable and just letting you know I'm just going to mention a stock here

symbol S-B-E-T sharp link gaming let me state for the record they really don't have revenues of note and lose just tons of money. The stock has been public forever. I didn't even realize that. Wow. And never really traded. I'm showing, I don't know if this is right, but I'm showing it traded for $2,000 in 2013.

It hit a high of a low of $2 recently. and never traded. I'm not seeing any news. In fact, the stock was two and change a few days ago, and volume on a daily basis was nominal. Some days did 100,000, some days 10,000. Again, I don't see any news, but the stock a few days ago went up to seven.

On Monday, gaped up to $57. excuse me, closed at $37, hit 50. Yesterday pulled back. Today was up 50 bucks to $79. And I see no news. In the float, I'm showing 600,000 shares. That's it. It traded 19 million today.

People buying at any price. Excuse me. This is not a rub on the company. the company I don't know the people that run the company it is a statement of froth and speculation put that in your file manager if we see too much of that we would not be happy it says it's a trusting marketing partner to leading sports books and online casino gaming operators worldwide but it's showing no sales it's showing no sales I'm on their website looking for investor relations

and they don't even show financials. Anyway, just be careful. Again, this is not a rub-oh, SEC filings. I'll look at it later. But I'm showing on my thing, no sales. Froth, speculation. We don't want to see too much more of that. It's very indicative of later stage moves in the near term.

And we've seen too many times where markets get hit soon after. and there's been more than just that name. And that be the story. Advanced the clients today, very good on the New York and not so bad on the NASDAQ. Advance the clients were okay today. But just a very wicked day and some growth names getting hit. We'll see what Tamar brings. And going back on NVIDI, I repeat, if it sits around for another couple of months and then breaks through the 153,

I will be getting on this show and saying to you, we're going to be. buying the hell out of it. Why not buy it now? Because we don't know if it's going to do that. We're big believers in confirmation. Big believers in confirmation. Elon Musk is P.O. at the budget bill in case you don't know that whole Doge thing, in the budget was hardly any of those knockouts. The Republicans have conned you again. They did it for four years under Trump the first time and they're doing it again. They are the Democrat Party now on spending. The Democrats are now Marxists.

So nothing changes and I hate, I won't use the word hate. I loathe the people that go on TV and say, well, growth will take care of it. No, it won't. No, it won't. It'll help a little, but it won't. As I said to yesterday, over the last 10 years, U.S. federal government tax revenue has gone up 60%. $5 trillion we sent them last year. Government spending is up 95% during that same time to over $7 trillion. And there's your $2 trillion plus debt. So they lied again. And you know the reason why?

government spending is part of GDP and it makes them look better. So Trump and the rest don't give a crap about debt and deficits. They lied just like Biden lied, just like Obama lied, just like Bush lied. And I gather the next person's going to lie also. See it 40 trillion, see it 45, see it 50. And let's hope the market never wakes up. My one fear has always been with all these numbers. that the bond market wakes up one day and says,

how much debt? Yeah, 6% 10 year, 7% 10 year, 8% 10 year. And then watch what the markets do. Watch what happens to the economy. Ladies and gentlemen, they're taunting us. They're taunting the whole country. And unfortunately, another opportunity, gone by-bye. You have a great evening drive carefully.

When you get home, do like we do. Make sure you hug your family. Make sure you hug your children. They will feel better. You will feel better. I promise. Stay well, be well. Thanks for joining.

Serenity now. Bye bye-bye. This has been Investor's Edge with Gary Cult Bomb on BizTalk. To listen to past episodes or to get in contact with Gary, go to GaryK.com. That's GaryK.com. Guys, it's no use putting it off. The best time for an underwear refresh is now. Tommy John underwear is designed for a perfect fit that stays put all day.

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