Investor's Edge with Gary Kaltbaum - The Umbrella

Episode Date: February 9, 2023

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Terms apply. Lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for detail. Investor's Edge with Gary Coltbaum. Straight talk about you and your money. Now from the BizTalk Studios, here is Gary Cultbaum. And welcome once again to Investors Edge. I'm Gary Colbaum, your host day.

Thanks for being with us today. Glad you're here, ladies and gentlemen, or maybe you're not. Happy that you are listening. It is Thursday, February 9, 2020, and we're here to talk about everything that affects you and me and us and your family and your money and your job and the job. economy and everything else in between thanks for joining us every day hope you are listening we're going to get right down to it first off we are pre-taping the show because i'm flying out tonight so right now it is 333 p.m market closes in 27 minutes so let me start out by saying the last few

days we have been saying to you we really do not want to see another advance decline a bad advance the Klein day. We don't want to see another bad day. It would somewhat indicate that we're hitting a moment in time where we're going to pull back something to that effect. And that's just all about reading the market. It's not genius. You just draw a line horizontally over price. and you can see that no matter what in the last few days, and we're talking short term here, price cannot get above a certain level. Then on top of that, you look at underneath the surface.

Oh, underneath the surface, wow, the Dow is only down eight points, but advanced decline is a three to one to the negative. So they're all just signs. It doesn't have to mean the end of the world is at hand, but it's just signs that we recognize, deal with, and just put our best efforts and best foot forward to protect capital and enhance capital when need be. but again backing up the last few days have us just pause just a little pause just a little pause and then we walk into today and immediately the Dow gaps up and at 955 is up 320 points everything's fine the nasdaq is up 170 points right out of the get-go everything's cool no big deal well this is not the market wrap brought to you by investment dash models

dot com this is the ongoing market into the close by investment dash models dot com that's jim morback one of the great market timers no gray areas with the man you're either in or out of the market was proprietary indicators go check it out investment dash models.com so what did I say to you the Dow the high of the day was around 955 34 252 at the highs the Dow was up 310 points as I speak it's down 325 points not only a hot open not only a reversal but a reversal and Selling off. Now, don't get all crazy. Let me finish up. The NASDAQ on the open hit 12,070. It was up 170 points. Cool. As we speak, it's up 150. Excuse me, down 150. So the NASDAQ is down from the highs, 310 points. The Dow is down 600.

And more importantly, this is all coming from. Remember, the open today was right in and about to a certain extent the areas of the last five or six days that have put an umbrella, not an umbrella, a ceiling, not like, a debt ceiling that you can keep going through the upside a ceiling over the market so we may be at a moment keep in mind listen carefully we're talking short-term stuff here we're not talking about end-of-world though we'll explain something in a minute we're just letting you know right now it just feels like it looks like up above here ceiling

Now, what do ceilings do in the market? We call them resistance. Well, they stop price from going higher for now. And after a rally up, it's not the worst of the world. Maybe we're just going to pull back normally, which is normal to happen, by the way, normal pullbacks. And then rally through it. Of course that can happen. We're just letting you know from real time here.

And we've been explaining it to you in the last few days how, hey, Dow was down 8, but advanced declines 3 to 1 negative. And maybe we're getting some of that. Maybe. It's just one day we still haven't closed, but we're pretty decent at this. So just near term. I don't want you to get all twisted over this.

I don't want you get all depressed over this. we're just letting you know that we may have hit a moment. That's all. Now the Dow is weaker than the S&P, which is weaker than the NASDAQ. Remember, in the initial rally in October, it was the other way around. But we do know the NASDAQ has what we call higher beta,

much more movement versus the market both up and down. Let's say a Tesla versus a Procter & Gamble. So to be watched. And again, we still have 20 minutes left in the market today. But all day, you're getting what we call distribution, that is the institution selling into whatever higher prices there are at a certain price level. And again, all you've got to do is draw a line, horizontal line.

The Dow is a little bit more defined because it's pretty much flat above. The S&P is more a little bit left to right, down from, let's say, 10 o'clock down to 8 o'clock. And the same would go for the NASDAQ. And again, we've got 20 minutes left. We'll see what happens. And we're not calling for it. Just remember, when we were in the brutal bear market, when we saw a high, we got real worried. Right now we see a high.

We're not as worried as we were because we've had this big corner turn in the market. And as we have stated to you, in order to really wreck the market from here, there's got to be some serious. work done by the sellers versus during the bear as you were just rallying up from oh by the way excuse me from 10 down to down to four in the bear market was rallying up from eight up to two we're talking about a clock by the way so again we're not making any big whatever We're just stating that above here, now something else happened today, that is of note. The 10-year yield, you know how important it's been to our work. It was lower this morning.

The 10-year yield this morning touched 3.581. You know what the 50-day moving average was? 3.584. And it held and is back to 3683. The 10-year yield is now above the 50-day moving average. If the 10-year yield goes higher from here, what has that been doing to the market for the last 18 months? So something to watch. That was another part of today's equation.

So just letting you know a little bit more ick and started off hot. It started off hot today. and you can leave no doubt unless we have something miraculous in the last 18 minutes of the day, this would be a quite the negative reversal day in the marketplace today. Up next, we got lots more, and more, and more. I'm Gary, this is one only investors, Ed. Hi, I'm Gary Kalpom, hosted a nationally syndicated radio show investors edge. We're not just handsome radio people. We manage investors money for a living,

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coordinate, advocate for you, close the deal with you, and hand the keys to you. They bring you home. Realtors are members of the National Association of Realtors. Right by you. It's time to switch on the integrator units and get the brain cells working. You're listening to Hey, this promises to be fun. Investors Edge. The last bastion of quality programming with Gary Coltbaum. It doesn't get better than this. And what once again to Investors Edge? So I want to make sure don't take me for when we were in the bear and every time we had a top, it was really worrisome tops because of the patterns. that traced out. This is more like a pullback top and it may be nothing. It may be a couple of

percent don't know. But if you bought in early, not the worst thing to, you know, take a little bit. But as always, we let you decide. Those of you that have been in the Wachamadugge Vanguard S&P for 40 years, you don't need to listen to me. you got that anyway and the market's got a little rally in here into the close we're still down 240 and 130 but we would just 300 and 150 so we'll see and of course tomorrow's another day maybe they just gap it back up tomorrow beats the hell out of us got that now there's another thing i want to bring up and i try to be careful about being to, I don't know if the word's wonky or whatever.

But there are things we need to explain to you to give you an education that we got many years ago from all ends of the spectrum that are out there. Our search for knowledge about this business, and when I mean knowledge, I'm talking about the things that work, the characteristics that work. the roadmap that works. You know, when we say to you, hey, the market's strong, but we are bearish on managed care, which is the HMOs, waste management, which is the people that come pick up your garbage and stuff like that,

oils, and whatever else recently, and they have stayed bearish while the market's rallied, you know, we get the question, what did you see? and we just answer, well, we just put our head down and look at the roadmap and the patterns that are traced out. We know what bull and bare markets look like and we don't have any bias and we recognize that the market is, and as we've told you, 200 sectors we follow and sub-sectors. We follow every country, almost. Yeah, I'd say every country.

Every commodity. And of course, a ton of stocks. and you just get a good feel. And when I put my head down, I'm just looking at United Health, Molina Health, Eumina, centine, signor, elephants, all managed care. And while I'm seeing other things ascending, and these things are heading the other way, and I'm seeing their relative strength just deteriorating, I know what to do.

avoid and I know what to say to you we'd avoid we don't tell you what to do we tell you what we think and what we do and then you get to decide for yourself hell if you own United Health since the year 2000 you don't want to hear from us by the way United Health get this well from 2009 has gone from 16 to 486

well that's the low of the bare market and of course you know they get paid by the government a lot of money I'm in the wrong business. So when we say to you, hey, we're just letting you know the, and this was yesterday and two days before, hey, just letting you know, it's not by accident. It's being able to put the pieces of the puzzle together in recognition of, okay, wait a minute. Dow up eight, down, it's only down eight, but advanced declines three to one negative. and you know the next thing we do we go to see what was down the most and we start at the most and we roll down and then we start making a list i have this list that i'll make of did anything

break down that a lot of things break down and when we say break down you're assuming we know what that looks like and a breakdown means it's losing its uptrend if not worse and then we tend to add it up a little bit let me give you a couple of examples examples. In recent days, off of earnings, Amazon topped out. Amazon, I think, is 6, 7% of the NASDAQ 100 even till today. I'm actually going to check that as I NDX make up and it comes up. Amazon is 6.3% of NASDAQ 100 and we deem that it's topped. And it's still getting in a little more trouble here and that's off of earnings. And then there's Google. We recognize Google. Why? Google between the two stocks, there's the G-O-O-G and G-O-O-O-GL, is 8%.

And we recognize that Google was acting really well. And then the AI thing happened, and they had an event, and things went awry. And the stock's just been creamed over the last two days. 8% of the NASDAQ 100 went from a high two days ago of 108 to 94 and change today. Guess what? That's bad news. So now we have 14% of the NASDAQ 100 that may be in trouble. And that's how we put them together. Now it's not as easy as because these represent a lot.

But you go through, when I go through the semis, I'll pick apart all the semiconductor stocks. I'll go through this name, that name, this name, that one. I just pick them apart. And over time, you get this big feel of this is the areas to be, this is the areas not to be, or stay out of everything. The easiest thing for me, us here, was to be in cash during the bear market. First off, we're growth stock managers, and all the growth stocks were getting destroyed, topping out a wave of them throughout 21 and then leading to November of 21, when all of them at the same time. All of them at the same time.

It was easy for us, and of course, everything else started coming in eventually also. That was easy. You know what the tough times are. The vertigo moments. Today. Dow up 300. Dow down 300. Do you know when I started this show?

It was down 300. It's only down 180 now. Still not a good reversal. And we still have eight minutes left. It can be down 300 by the close for all I know. Or who knows even better? Those are the vertigo moments. We try to manage those as best as we can and we just stay.

to stay with what's leading, what's lagging, what to avoid, and that's where we actually love doing this show. We love doing our webcasts because it's like additional therapy for us. I'll explain that up next as we head to the close. This is the one only investors at. This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card.

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bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply, lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details. You're listening to. America is talking.

Investors Edge. He's got to be pleased with that. The crowd is just on its feet here. He's a senator out boy. With Gary Colbomb. It comes highly recommended. You're going to feel better if you talk to him. Let's go a little further.

It's a little lesson day, Gary. The Dow is only 30 stocks. It takes me one minute to go through 30 stocks. And before I even go through it, I know that 3M is in a major bear market of no help to the Dow. I know that Walgreens is one 14th of importance as United Health in the Dow that if United

Health went to zero United Health is at 487 let's say it was 500 bucks if it went to zero if it went to zero it would be about 3,300 Dow points if Walgreens went to zero both down 100%. Walgreens would be about 220 Dow points. It's price weighted. We also know that Chevron is in the Dow and now the oils are in a bare market, bearish market. But we also know Chevron is a bigger name, it'll hold up better. But we also know it's no longer helping the Dow rise and it's more of an anchor. So it's another Dow stock. That's how we can do that. And I can go through the Dow stocks easily

because it takes a moment in time. And then we'll do the semis. Then we'll do the big financials. Then we'll do the regionals. That's how we have recognition. And in the assumption, we know what an up trend and a downtrend looks like, especially a very good uptrend and downtrend.

Let's just assume. That's how we do it. we do and how we're able to do this show and guide you live. I don't know if you realize this. We're actually given you every five days a week, every time the market's closed, are thoughts on the direction of the market and the leaders and what to avoid. Who else is doing that? Nobody.

Well, I hear this, this guy on TV that's been doing it forever that doesn't have a clue. and has no idea how to manage a bear market. So just giving you an idea of when we come to you in the last few days and say, hey, just letting you know the internals are worsening. Don't want to see another day of this because if it does, it deteriorates more. And then we get today. And we'll see where we close. So stay tuned.

We never know what a move is going to lead to. we have a feel for what it's going to lead to but our job is get direction right and not change until the direction changes and we use the words potential for the direction changing that's what we got going here right now but just on a near term basis

just on a near term basis if it worsens we'll let you know but we also know what to avoid and any stock that has been above that all important 50-day moving average and breaks below it is a bad stock. Not the end of the world, but it can no longer ascend. And the more that do that, the tougher things are. And if the indices start doing that, even more. And if the wrong things hold that like the 10-year yield to,

which we actually think did the kibosh on today cause and effect we've described for you the cause and effect in this market the direct correlations in this market and maybe just maybe one happened here today tomorrow be another day and then there's the inverted yield curve go look up the words inverted yield curve and why it presages recessions and what exactly it is, because we continue to have one of the widest I've seen on record in decades. But we keep getting a good GDP and jobs number. So for the first time ever, is this inverted yield curve wrong?

And by the way, all that means is longer-term yields are much lower than shorter-term yields, and that's not supposed to be. When people lend out money to, when people borrow from others, the more debt there is, or the longer you go out, the more you're supposed to be paid because you're going out longer in time.

So that's something that we're watching also. I must tell you, it's quite weird to watch. It's got a lot of people scratch in their head. Us, we just follow the bouncing ball. And we'll know if we're going into the crapper in the economy. How? Oh, the stocks that have been kind on the strong side, like Caterpillar and Parker Hanifan and things like that, we'll start croaking big time. That's how we'll know. Market is smarter than me, you, everybody else. Not necessarily in the short run.

We've had the short squeezes and hugs of junk. But in the long run, greatness is paid up for. Crappy is paid down for. That's how it goes. Got that? In the long run, greatness is paid up for? Crapness, yeah, crapness, is paid down. Soul down.

And that's why we always urge you, the three words, when all heck is going crazy around you and people are buying up companies that can be bankrupt the next day just know what the hell you're getting into and be smart about picking your poison bedbath and beyond they squeezed that sucker up recently again amazingly amazingly

on Monday they're making this up $7.3 cents it's $257.00. It's $257. today and you know what we think if they file bankruptcy it's a zero yet people are speculating in it and going home with it the next that night they announced the secondary and in the morning was down 48 percent i don't know about you but that ain't for me i'm doing a little trip uh later this year uh to dubai taking the family one of my son said yeah i want to sky's

dive over Dubai, I hear it's pretty cool. I said, and I ain't paying for the trip. There ain't nobody skydiving in my family. Risk management. I'm never skydiving. Risk management. Do you know when I'm on the subways in New York City? I make my family stay clear from anywhere near the train's coming. Risk management. You should do it with your money also. And unfortunately, when things go crazy, people get crazy. Risk management. Skydiving. Yeah, right. They never happen. And I hear it's you do a tandem jump with somebody? No, thank you. We're still on the Eagles, by the way. Our only worry, I am not finding too many that like Kansas City Chiefs in the Super Bowl. I want to hear a lot more people like in Kansas City. Remember the masses.

When the masses go one way in gambling, shut your eyes and go the other way. Up next, news of the day, this is the one only investor's edge. This message is brought to you by the Capital One VentureX card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide.

The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply. Lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details. This episode is brought to you by Spreaker. The platform responsible for a rapidly spreading condition known as podcast brain. Symptoms include buying microphones you don't need, explaining RSS feeds to confused relatives,

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You're listening to. What are we waiting for? Well, what are you waiting for? One, two, ready, go. Action! In the Gester's Edge. With Gary Culper. Unbelievable, the moves in the NBA.

Kevin Durant's going to the Phoenix Suns. Unbelievable. My Orlando Magic here, training Mo Obama. getting packed Beverly, I believe. Good defense. Everybody moving all over the place. By the way, you want to know bubbles? Kobe Bryant's MVP jersey from 0708 sells for $5.8 million.

That is no bubbles. Don't worry. Everything's good. And you know I'm a Knicks fan, right? Which means I'm a depressed person. Clippers did so. Oh, man, tons of trades. Can't even keep up with it.

Hey, in the news, you know, we say a lot of things on this, and I really do swear that there's more people listening to show than we think. No, really. An op-ed in the Wall Street Journal by Dan Henninger. I've never met him, but he's on Fox off him. Title, Joe Biden is Bernie Sanders. Democrats thought a socialist couldn't win the presidency in 2020. Well, they've got one now for 2024. What have I said how many times on this show?

Joe Biden market himself as a moderate forever. They put them up there during the debates as a moderate during the whole time. And what have we said to you? Might as well be Bernie Sandings running the country. The dudes are Marxist. And just so, you know, people think that's a bad term. No, it's defined somebody. It's called control freak.

And how do they do it by telling you, oh, it's all for the greater good. and we're out to get the bad guys and you know who the bad guys are successful people do you know he they've actually imagine the president of the united states not imagine they did calling anybody who makes over four hundred thousand dollars tax cheats they actually said that anybody over 400,000 they don't say who are tax cheats they say tax cheats anyway good op-ed they're right and frankly I think he makes Bernie Sanders look conservative on a lot of things. Rules, regulations, fees, fines, mandates, taxes, dictates. You know what the latest thing is they're going after the airlines for charging you for seats and for luggage.

They're going after late fees from banks. Now bear with me for a second. They're going after the fees for, you know, ticket master and stuff like that. There's only one question there because we don't like those fees. Do you know I was looking to get a master's ticket? And it used to be $1,500 to go on a Saturday. It's now $2,100. And then I went in to just take a look.

They put a $600 fee on $2,100, $30 to get the ticket. It's insane. Nobody likes it. When they first came out with the charging you for bags, you know what I said on the show? There's no way people will stand for it and look what happened. so we're not happy about that but what else do we want government

dictating to business what they can and cannot do in charge for what else so if one of you own a restaurant a really nice restaurant and you're selling the let's see the canaloney what is the president going to come and say two dollars too much

where does it end if we let them dictate what business is charged, where does it end? Now, antitrust is about monopolies. I get a little bit of that. You know when people gouge, when there's a hurricane and stuff like that? I get that. My question is, where the hell does it end?

What would be next? Who are they going to go after next? All for the greater good. Just remember what government is, it's a blob. and if you open up any spigot, oh, it's waterfalls. And they just are smart about picking things we kind of don't like too much. But I'm going to guarantee you it would just be the beginning if they get their greasy, grimy, sleazy, slimy hands on these things. You've already heard about Disney.

Just remember this. It's pretty simple. $125 billion of market cap. Shareholder wealth is lost in 2022. Goodbye CEO. Hello, the last guy who is popular. That's what's going on. Then a bunch of activists show up, want to get on the board.

What is the new CEO, who is the old CEO does, takes action. and what do they do first things first expense side we do you cut the fat something our government should do that they'll never do and he does that and then 3.6% of the employees and then what else can we do something I've always railed against they had content providers and the creators have to go upstairs to the suits to get approval on the things they want to to do. Guess what? Put it back in the content providers in the creator's hands. Smart move. And we'll see what else is next. You know, reputation. I was in London. There was an article on how too much too high of a cost for Disney World. I gather they're going to be looking at that

to a certain extent. And we'll see how it goes. Disney stock was up nicely early, but when the market got trashed and finished down on the day. They got a lot to do. Streaming. Tough business now, a lot of competition. Disney streaming, they're up to 160 million people, which is huge in the amount of time they did it, but it was down quarter over quarter. And again, just very tough. Very tough. I mean, how many eyes are there for all the networks and channels and streaming? I don't think there's enough.

That's to be watched also. All right, we'll see what happens tomorrow, crummy day today. Maybe a better day tomorrow. You have a great evening drive carefully. We'll be in our New York City abode doing the show. I'll be on with Cavuto tomorrow, Fox Business Network, a new and hour in studio. You have a great evening drive carefully. When you get home to like we do, it's quite simple.

Make sure you hug your family. Make sure you hug your children. They will feel better. You will feel better. I promise. Stay safe. Don't skydive and all that. Peace out, all.

Thanks for joining us. Bye-bye. This has been Investors Edge with Gary Cult. bomb on Biz Talk. To listen to past episodes or to get in contact with Gary, go to Garykay.com. That's GaryKay.com.