Investor's Edge with Gary Kaltbaum - THE V-SHAPE [08.15.2024]

Episode Date: August 15, 2024

garykaltbaum.com

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loyalty programs subject to terms and conditions. Visit the prodesk or Lose.com slash terms for more details. Subject to change. Investor's Edge with Gary Coltbaum. Straight talk about you and your money. Now from the BizTalk Studios, here is Gary Cultbaum. And welcome once again to Investors Edge. I'm Gary Coltbaum, your host day.

Thanks for being with us today. Glad you're here, ladies and gentlemen, happy that you are listening. It is August 15th, 20204. It's Thursday. Hope you're having a good day. Lots to cover. We don't mess around here. serious talk on everything that affects you.

The markets, the economy, jobs, government statistics, the Morlocks in D.C., scams, shams, corruption, you name it, we cover it with no agenda, ulterior motive or bias. We dare anybody to debate the facts that we say on this show. We tell you when we're stating facts and we tell you when we're stating our own opinions on those facts. as always you get to decide. And as you know, a big part of what we're doing on the show is we head into November's, we're covering the election with no agenda, ulterior motive, or bias, as we said, for a second time. And we mean that.

We have no use for either candidate, but it's a binary choice. We certainly would rather have somebody but Trump, but it's a binary choice. And boy, oh boy, on the other side, wow. We'll cover that in a little bit, but first, if you don't get this radio show in your city, we'll post it at garyk.com, we'll also post it on a Twitter feed, which is now X. And if you don't follow us on X, you should. And if you email us, just be nice. It's not hard to be nice.

And just so you do know, all we try to do every day is put our best foot forward. That's all we try to do. And we really don't script the show, but we really have a good. idea but what we want to say and how to convey it we really want to get across to you the leaders and the laggards and just what the hell is going on we know what we've said the day before the day before that the day before that the day before that so we know how to guide you through that and that's that that was up 554 today what s and p a 80 by the way with 12 seconds to go the The Dow is only up 490 and 60 points in 12 seconds.

S&P up 88, NASDAQ 401, NASDAQ 10467. Transports 186. Advanced the conlines good. I must tell you, new highs picking up, but nothing spectacular. Just tells you how wicked things are. The semiconductor index up a juicy 240. I'll stop there. Let's get into it.

July 11th. Oh, by the way, we're going to nail. Biden slash Harris today a little bit later on the show and we're going to compare them to Maduro who's running Venezuela into the freaking ground

we'll explain the markets so we were mosing along into July 11th everything was all well and good we had our tech stocks that we like the semiconductors, Microsoft, NVIDIA, meta, a few others. Always well, we're writing up some ETFs also.

And then we get to the point of what we call, you never know. You never know. On that day, we came on the show, we acted in kind, we pulled no punches. On that day, we thought the all-important semiconductor index. had one of those tops of importance. We had one of those tops of importance on March 8th. And we went through, it took about one, two, three, four, five, six, seven weeks to bottom. The semiconductors went from 5217 down to 4288.

Not a big drop. Rallied up nicely, all's well and good. we thought on, you know, and we were right. Unbeknownst to us, unbeknownst to us, the semiconductors dropped 28% at the lows last Monday. By the way, we're going to teach you a little lesson that we're teaching ourselves. Remember what we've told you? We've been doing this a very long time, and it's a constant learning experience, and it's a constant remembering the photo album for familiar faces,

but sometimes something shows up that you've never seen before. 28% drop in the semis. The last drop was blamed on Japan. The story goes, Japan, who has rigged their markets forever. How do you rig markets? The government buys up all the stocks in Japan, and they have. and they've kept rates at zero in Japan, and they have. And all they did was raise rates a quarter point,

and Japanese market dropped 25% before you can say boo. And that started, I believe, on August 1st, the Thursday. So August 1st, the Thursday and the Friday to that Monday, we had a stiff drop also. In fact, the NASDAX high on that Thursday, 17791 to 157, 2,000 points from the high to the low on that Monday? Well, as you know, we were out. We did not experience that.

We made judicious calls on what we saw, and we were out. We missed it. We lost a little bit and a couple of ETFs on the way down. we gave a little back, but I remember we sold Microsoft at 453. It's still 420, by the way. Meta we sold, I think, around 530. It dropped the 442. And then earnings came out and gapped up.

And then came that Monday. And here's the lesson that we've taught ourselves. The lesson we have taught ourselves. And this one is a big, gigantic, sore thumb photo that goes into the photo album for familiar faces. We don't try to get too technical with you guys because we're doing radio. Not easy. On that morning, the Dow was down 1,200, the NASDAQ was down 1,000.

On the open, everybody crapping in their pants. I told you, one of our clients who bought NVIDIA on his own called up to sell it, after the drop. And luckily, I can't take an order over text. So I called him and talked him into, you know, just hanging in there for the time being. And he's quite happy right now. But that is indicative of everybody crapping in their pants causing a big gap to the downside off of Japan. The end of the world's coming. Look out below. But something happened that day. and this is the photo don't even have to tell you

you can go see it the photo is there is something called the volatility index and it went moonshot we explained this to you a couple of times this week already it went from sitting around up to 65 and when we meant sitting around

it was between 15 and 18 went to 65 that day closed at 38. Volatility measurements, they measure scared. They measure people wetting their pants. Excuse the vernacular, but you get my point. On that same day, throughout all this, the Dow pretty much stayed down. It was down 1,200, finished down 1,000. Still not good. But the most important areas of the market, the ones we worry about most, the NASDAQ, NASDAQ 100, and the semiconductors finished halfway back up. The next day we were up, the next day we were up nicely,

and the hook was, they sold it off badly. And I must tell you, at the end of that day, which happened to be the Wednesday, I was like, because we thought that Monday was a moment, what we call a volatility washout of the late sellers. On Wednesday, we had not bought anything. At the end of Wednesday, we're thinking, holy, you know what, they may just take this sucker even farther down into the depths of hell. The other part of the equation, the photo, the photo.

Those indices held right at the longer term 200,000, day moving average. If you don't know what that is, you just take any moving average, take the amount of days, add up the closes, divide by those amount of days, and you get smoothed outlines. The 200 day is the longer term moving average that beneath it, forget it. We're talking going into big bear markets. Up next, we'll tell you what happened next and work you through Today, I'm Gary. This is the one only Investor's Edge. Hi, I'm Gary Kalbaum, hosted a nationally syndicated radio show Investors Edge.

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See Capital One.com for details. This episode is brought to you by Spreker. The platform responsible for a rapidly spreading condition known as podcast brain. Symptoms include buying microphones you don't need, explaining RSS feeds to confused relatives, and saying things like, sorry, I can't talk right now, I'm editing audio. If this sounds familiar, you're probably already a podcaster. The good news is Spreker makes the whole person.

process simple. You record your show, upload it once, and Spreaker distributes it everywhere people listen, Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and about a dozen apps your cousin swears are the next big thing. Even better, Spreaker helps you monetize your show with ads, meaning your podcast might someday pay for well, more microphones.

Start your show today at spreeker.com. Sprinker, because if you're going to talk to yourself for an hour, you might as well publish it. It's time to switch on the integrator units and get the brain sales working you're listening to hey this promise is to be fun investors edge the last bastion of quality programming with Gary called bomb it doesn't get better than this so the semiconductors were holding in and around that vital area that's number one number two the NASDAQ and NASDAQ 100 weren't just holding in and around, but we're above it, meaning on Monday it held

and we're a little bit above it showing big defense. But as I said, that Wednesday I was like, is it possible? Well, strong day Thursday. Little better Friday. Monday, little up. but we came on the show and said no umph. O-O-O-O-M-P-H, it's our own word. And all that it defines is, is there some conviction behind this rally? Well, on Tuesday of this week, we had what we told you was

something called a follow-through day, a confirmation day. We explain it like this. Every bullish phase the market's, ever had, has had one. But not every time it's happened is turned into a bullish phase. But we recognized it. But even though it was one of those days and volume was heavier, it wasn't like damn was that strong. It really wasn't. But okay, it's still qualified. Well, yesterday, the Dow was up 200 and changed.

The NASDAQ was flat. No biggie. Today, big day. And volume picked up. And what we have right now, ladies and gentlemen, is what we call outlier. O-U-T-L-I-E. It's something that just doesn't happen often. It is a three days straight down.

One, two, three, four, five, eight days straight. up to the levels we came down from not the highs this was from a lower high but straight up and it's stunning and the reason it's stunning because territory covered and not just strength and there has been much but the most brutalized stocks i'll give you some examples and this is no great shakes but you have a micron semiconductor went from 157 down to 90 well since that Monday it's 107 almost 20% for a bare market technology semiconductor stock if the weakest are going up 20% catching my drift AMD another weakling 130 to 147. The high was 227 in March. Catching my drift. Qualcomm. And I'm giving you the close on Monday,

not even the low, 148 to 173, but it was 211.4 weeks ago. 2.30 at the end of June. But it's still an amazing move back up of those semis and just leave no doubt to pretty much everything up to a certain extent there's still not a new yearly highs which is great for me because if this is going to continue you know what happens

new yearly highs show up and we get off to the races with a lot of great leading stocks and leading groups we'll see if that occurs we're just letting you know wow and what's my lesson for myself what have I already written down in my little it's not I guess you can call it a diary but it's a notebook

on that big Monday reversal day that we came on the show and said boy oh boy that just felt like a big volatility washout there was about 10 to 15 stocks that never budged off the highs, never got going because the market was trashed, but they wouldn't budge.

And we always have this thought process, gee, if they can't hit them, while the semis are down 28%, I think the NASDAQ was down 16%. What if things get better? Well, guess what those stocks have done? So what I've written down in my little, book to remember photo album for those familiar faces, which will add definite returns to whatever

I do. Typically, in a real wicked downtrend, I'm not owning anything. But in the case of the combination of that day and these stocks that didn't budge after that day the first move off of their little range bound even if the market ain't going yet i'm going to probe some do you know why the study of bull and bear markets and in this latest study that i have done and we're not talking three minutes of study we have recognized A that Vicks explosion was going to be a low we went back to past ones

and B if it is the low own those names that did not budge and by the way we gave out some of the symbols on this show so even now after many a year we're teaching ourselves

I don't call them tricks. We're not saying new tricks, new strategies to increase our returns. Because there's a couple of names, and I hope you don't mind me not mentioning them, that have really made a nice move from that Tuesday. Excuse me, yes, the Tuesday. And we're not pissed off that we're not in them. You know why? Oh, because we're learning.

We're getting better at what we do, even though we consider ourselves pretty good. But we're in recognition that, yeah, we're on to something there also. So just giving you in real time, lesson time, how we look at things. Tomorrow's another day. Markets overbought, stretched and extended to the upside now in near term. but one would suggest until we're able to come back on this show and say to you, sellers now up the upper hand in a big way, we suspect not the lows of that Monday,

not the midpoint of that Monday, we suspect the lows higher than those lows going to hold. We think risk is down here. Up next, we'll explain more. And then Biden Harris, we won't hold back. I'm Gary. This is the one only investor's edge. Guys, it's no use putting it off.

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comfort perfected. This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply. Lounge access is subject to change.

See Capital One.com for details. This episode is brought to you by Spreaker. The platform responsible for a rapidly spreading condition known as podcast brain. Symptoms include buying microphones you don't need, explaining RSS feeds to confused relatives, and saying things like, sorry, I can't talk right now, I'm editing audio. If this sounds familiar, you're probably already a podcaster. The good news is Spreker makes the whole process simple. You record your show, upload it once, and Spreaker distributes it everywhere people listen,

Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and about a dozen apps your cousins swears are the next big thing. Even better, Spreaker helps you monetize your show with ads, meaning your podcast might someday pay for, well, more microphones. Start your show today at spreeker.com. Spreaker, because if you're going to talk to yourself for an hour, you might as well publish it. Investors Edge. He's got to be pleased with that. The crowd is just on his feet here.

He's a Cinderella boy. With Gary Colbomb. It comes highly recommended. You're going to feel better if you talk to him. So welcome once again to Investors Edge. And basically what that means is I think the S&P, I think in the near term, probably a 3% risk near term. I'm not talking about nine months from now.

Just based on what I'm saying. and it's probably stupid to say, you know why? We just V-shaped up. But that's my guess. We'll see how it goes. The S&P is back above the 50-day moving average today. The Dow did it yesterday and got a little more today. The NASDAQ finished right on it.

Let me make sure that NASDAQ 50-day 17-576, a little smidge above the 50-day. And the NASDAQ 100, a little bit of, above also V-shaped from this last time down. Unbelievable. The Russell, I don't even know to describe what it looks like, to be honest with you. The transports, nothing going on there. In fact, the transports were much stronger early in the day and came in. The, what else do I got for you. The oils. You know what e is, right. Steel, eh, metals in mining, eh, the regional banks had an updated, they need work, not impressed. The banks, financials, nice little run-up back towards the

recent highs, but not the banks as a whole. There is the KBE, which is banks, and there's the XLF, which is other financials, the KBE does not act as well. So as we're saying, it ain't going to be everything. But the most, I have to tell you, as somebody, the move in the semis, from the last high, not the high of 5931, we went from 5200 to a low of 4,300 in three days, closed at 4520 with 51 73 8 days later still down from 5931

this one will go in the archives wow now the news today was retail numbers were better than expected but I don't believe them you bulk crap don't tell me a government statistic I'm out there and do not forget inflation as part of the retail

numbers. But it doesn't matter to me. Why? Remember, we don't rationalize moves in markets. We've seen bad news bought up. We've seen good news sold down. Are you ready for this deer? You know, deer is, deer, caterpill and all them. The stock was up $22 today, 6%. On a 38% drop in earnings and a 17% drop in sales, that is the fourth quarter of big deceleration in their business, but it was up $22 today. Cisco systems, you know Cisco, the old great stock from the 90s and 80s, was up three bucks today to 48 and change. Six percent plus also. Earnings were down 24. Revenue was down 10 percent. More deceleration of their numbers. Crappy numbers bought up on those two names. So again, we don't rationalize. We'll let the market dictate and dang.

And we get emails today. Were you surprised by this move? Hell yes. But our job is to interpret, and we are going backwards to that Monday, and what we try to do is go back. Did we ever have any thought of doing anything that day, knowing the vix and spike volatility, people were crapping in their pants? I did say wet pants before.

Okay, sorry about that. and you finished halfway in the NASDAQ, NASDAQ 100, the end of the world was coming. No, I never really thought about adding anything that day. And again, on that Wednesday, when we finished at the lows that day, I was thinking all heck, oh, my goodness. But that resolved itself the next day, two days of nothingness, and then the big confirmation day,

and two days later, another boom, to the upside. again tomorrow I don't have a clue don't care we'll worry about it overnight I'll do my scan see where they are I do know where everything is already I do know where the leaders are I do know where the laggards are because we scan

throughout the day but wow I was asked 300 times about Nvidia in the last two days they didn't ask me two weeks ago it's back up to 122 down from 140 hit 90 on 90 on that Monday. Wow. Stunning.

Stunning. In other news, just letting you know, I was diagnosed with Olycrannon elbow brisitis. Out of nowhere, and you know, I do a lot of tricep work, you know, I'm a beast. My right elbow, little golf ball on it. The hell is this?

and you can, you know, you just, it moves around and stuff. What the hell is this? And then I felt my left elbow with his little one there, and then it kept growing to almost golf ball size. What the hell is this? So I googled the words, golf balls on my elbows. And up came olecranin Bricidus. But I thought it was just one of these, you know, lipomas.

until one of the doctors out there emailed me, then a bunch of others emailed me, so I went to see and got diagnosed today, yeah. And he asked me, what do you do when I explained the tricep working goes, no, it didn't come from that. You're telling me lifting 60-pound dumbbells overhead for triceps? No, that didn't cause it. How do you work during the day? And I explain. I stand up. I have four screens and I have my arms rested against, you know, whatever, and I scan, I press buttons and stuff like that.

He goes, are you like that all the time? I go, well, throughout the day. Huh. So your elbows are, you know, not down to your sides. They're up halfway. Yeah. He goes, that's what does it. He goes, do you rub against anything? I said, no, he goes, well, I'm just telling you that's what does it. Here's what you need to do. that little thing where you have your tray and your pressing buttons, lower it, keep your arms down to your side. We're elbow pads. I got two elbow pads on right now. Ice it two to three times a week.

We're going to take your blood for the uric acid just to make sure it's not gout, but you have no pain and you have nothing else anywhere else. So we doubt it's gout. Just let you know. Getting old. It's amazing. Think about it. I'm in shape.

I don't drink. I don't do drugs. I had back spasms for six months that I would be bent over almost crying. They went away because I now am the king of stretching twice a day. And I got golf balls on my elbows. Age. It sucks. But let me tell you something. As soon as I'm ready to work out again, I'm going right back at it again. And I've taken his advice.

I now have my arms by my side, and now when I scan, it's pretty much at my hip and my arms are down. He thinks that give it for five weeks, it'll be out of here. If not, maybe he'll drain it one time, but they don't like draining because sometimes it comes back. But it's so noticeable. Darn! All right. That's that for my elbow borsitis. In other news, Warren Buffett took a position in Ulta Ceylon.

This stock has been murdered over a period of time, and the stock was up $366 today to $365.65. It was down from $5.74. What's interesting is, I don't know what he likes about it because deceleration of sales and earnings also. But he loves companies that – actually, this doesn't – it doesn't really fit what I've seen in Buffett, but he did that. I will tell you that Nike's also been a bare market stock. And Bill Ackman took a position in that, so that moved up a little bit, but not as much as Altus Salon. So there's a little bit of that going on. How's that for you?

That was in the news, and that sticks out. And I must tell you know who Greg Kin is from the Greg Kin Band? They don't ride them like that anymore. This was one of those hits from many years ago that you never got out of your head. He died at 75. Dementia, they're saying. Damn, we're getting old. the Greg Kin Band, Big MTV.

Used to play a song like every hour for a very long time. Haven't heard the name in ages. But it was one of those songs. You don't want me to sing it, do you? Okay, I won't. Up next, Biden Harris, or Harris Biden. Are we heading towards Venezuela? I'll explain.

This is the one that only investor's edge. Guys, it's no use putting. it off. The best time for an underwear refresh is now. Tommy John underwear is designed for a perfect fit that stays put all day. Their zero-chafe thanks to four times more stretch than competing brands and their innovative horizontal quick draw fly is a game changer. With over 30 million pairs sold, there are thousands of men out there more comfortable than you. Don't settle for less. Go to Tommyjohn.com today for 25% off your first order with Code Comfort. That's Tommyjohn.com code comfort. Tommy John. Comfort perfected. This message is brought to you by the Capital One

Venture X card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply My lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details. This episode is brought to you by Spreaker, the platform responsible for a rapidly spreading condition known as podcast brain. Symptoms include buying microphones you don't need, explaining RSS feeds to confused relatives, and saying things like, sorry, I can't talk right now, I'm editing audio. If this sounds familiar, you're probably already a podcaster.

The good news is Spreaker makes the whole process simple. You record your show, upload it once, and Spreaker distributors. It's it everywhere people listen. Apple podcasts, Spotify, and about a dozen apps your cousins swears are the next big thing. Even better, Spreaker helps you monetize your show with ads, meaning your podcast might someday pay for, well, more microphones. Start your show today at spreeker.com. Spreaker, because if you're going to talk to yourself for an hour, you might as well publish it. You're listening to. What are we waiting for?

Well, what are you waiting for? One, two, ready. So, I don't think we're ever going to turn into Venezuela. Hugo Chavez took it over and in the name of companies were screwing them. They took over businesses and destroyed the economy, bought out the military, destroyed the country. Then this Yuts Maduro took over when Hugo Chavez thankfully died of

cancer. I hope he... I shouldn't do that, right? As bad as the guy is. But he murdered people. Anyway, we'll leave it at that. So this guy, Maduro took it over and same thing. I don't know if you know

this, but I'm pretty sure Venezuela has the most oil reserves in the world and they destroyed that. They destroyed the whole industry. They just did an election to run the joint and they stole the election big time. He lost by miles and they just stole it. Military stomped on people, murdered people in the streets. They own all the industries.

They've destroyed it. They started with one, two, three, four. And people are fleeing Venezuela like there's no tomorrow. Oh, they're coming here. So as I have said to you, I believe Joe Biden is left of Bernie Sanders. that he's a lion's sack. He has marketed himself as a moderate his whole life. And soon as he got real power, he's left of Bernie Sanders.

And how do we know this? Rules, regulations, fees, fines, mandates, tax proposals, debt deficits, giveaways, the whole works. He did the whole matzabal. But I must tell you, the rhetoric and the proposals out of Harris is making Biden look like Reagan. we're not making this up when I'm about to tell you something. Vice President Harris intends to announce a plan to prevent corporations in the food and grocery industries from unfairly jacking up prices on consumers by imposing the first ever federal ban on corporate price gouging in these industries. They're going to want to have federal oversight and control over what companies charge. and you must know if they're going to start with food and groceries, they're going to go everywhere.

That will just destroy the economy. It'll destroy business. It'll destroy markets. It'll destroy jobs. It'll destroy everything. Do you know how we know this? What do we tell you here about photo album and familiar faces? Every country that has tried this has destroyed the economies.

Every one of them. Why? Because, A, price controls don't work. B, these people in government have never been in business, and they think they can run them. So here, the first policies coming out of this woman is to control the means. And it all sounds good. That's what they're great at, Marxists. It all sounds good.

We're going to make sure they can't raise prices. But what if to produce that food, get that food, Move that food, wrap that food, put the food on the shelves, and then sell that food. What if that cost is higher what they are demanding they charge? They go out of business. There goes your businesses. There goes your government takeovers. There goes your Venezuela's.

She's insane. She's a Marxist. This is the definition of, Marxism. In the first 100 days, she would also grant authority for the FTC, the Federal Trade Commission, and the state attorneys general, to investigate and issue harsh penalties on big corporations that choose to break these rules to make a quick buck at Americans' expense. In other words, corporations in the free economy, the free markets, cannot charge what they want to charge.

Government will demand what they can charge. How is that going to work? Ladies and gentlemen, A, she could not last three minutes in an interview with me. B, if she gets away with this and gets the House and the Senate and gets away with this, destruction of the economy, easily. Not even, you don't even have to do a reach. In a normal world, it would be a landslide for her to lose. but unfortunately Trump is stepping all over his feet again

saying things he shouldn't and the poll numbers are working against him at this juncture I'm hearing his advisors are all over him to shut up and just talk economy I'm contemplating getting a hold of him and I can and just say dude do you want to lose because there is a great

way to win just show the list of prices over the last four years, show video of Afghani women in the dark ages, show the debt and deficits, though Trump sucked on them also, but this guy's worse, amongst other things, and tie their hands to it, because Vice President Harris can't walk away

from the last three and a half years. of massive inflation, massive debt, massive deficits. The border. The border. Ten million people here. It should be a gimmie. It should be a gimmie. It was noted today that in New York,

the cost to take care of the migrants, $5 billion. already spent. That could have gone towards the homeless or the potholes. You have to see the potholes in New York City? You get my point. We'll keep covering it. I got news for you. They're making it quite easy for me. Hey, tomorrow is Friday, right? I should be on with Neil Cavuto, noon hour, Fox business, check that out. Until then, me and my elbows have to say to you, have a great evening drive carefully. And when you get home, do like we do. Quite simple. Make sure you hug your family, make sure you hug your children. They will feel better. You will feel

better. I promise. Again, thanks for joining. Hopefully continued better days ahead in the markets. Peace out all. Stay well, be well. Bye-bye. This has been Investors Edge with Gary Coltbaum on BizTalk. To listen to past episodes or to get in contact with Gary, go to GaryK.com. That's GaryK.com. Guys, it's no use putting it off. The best time for an underwear refresh is now. Tommy John underwear is designed for a perfect fit that stays put all day. Their zero-chafe thanks to four times more stretch than competing brands. And their innovative horizontal quick-draw fly is a game changer.

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