Investor's Edge with Gary Kaltbaum - The very crappy week in review [03.28.2025]

Episode Date: March 28, 2025

https://garykaltbaum.com#doge #moment #garyk #market #investments #usa #politics #finance __________Disclaimer:The opinions you hear on BizTalkRadio, BizTV, or BizTalkPodcasts are those of the hosts, callers, and guests and do not necessarily reflect those of BizTalkRadio, BizTV, or BizTalkPodcasts, its management or advertisers. The information on BizTalkRadio et al does not constitute a recommendation, offer, or solicitation to buy or sell any product or securities. Please consult a professional before investing.

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That's Tommyjohn.com, code comfort. Tommy John. Comfort perfected. Investor's Edge with Gary Coltbaum. Straight talk about you and your money. Now from the BizTalk Studios, here is Gary Cultbaum. And welcome once again to Investors Edge. I'm Gary Coltbaum, your host. A thanks of being with us today. Glad you here, ladies and gentlemen, happy that you are listening. It's March 28, 2025. Wish we had better news for you. Would you like me to do today or would you like me to do the week? Well, we'll do both.

In case you don't know, this is serious talk on everything that affects you. We'll do the markets. The economy. Your job, your industry. Debt and deficits. Doge. Tariffs. Price controls.

And all the disagreements we have with what's going on. serious talk on all of it. And if you do not get this radio show in your city, we will post it at garyk.com. We'll also post it on our Twitter feed, which is now X. And if you don't follow us on X, you should. And if you'd like to email me, all you got to do is be nice. Ladies and gentlemen, we're going to cover a lot of things today. I want you to remember that this week started off with a great move on Monday. A strong day on Monday. But for the week, the S&P finished down 1.4%.

For the week, the Dow finished down just 1%. For the week, the NASDAQ finished down 2.6%. For the week, the NASDAQ 1002.4%. For the week, the semiconductor indexed down 6%. for the week, do I need to do more? Because now we switch off to today. Today, the Dow is down another 715. The S&P 112, the NASDAQ 481, the NASDAQ 15,

the Semiconductor Index 130, the transports 291, advanced decline sucked. A lot more, get this. New yearly lows on the NASDAQ 3. 386. New yearly highs. It's saying 50. I'm going to guess it's probably 15. And I'm going to guess it's probably a bunch of gold if I find them. On the New York, 65 new highs, which is probably 10, 170 new lows. As I said, advance the were nightmarish. Wish we had better news. We're going to be walking through bare market patterns this weekend with our peeps.

I must tell you, the blame today was a bunch of BS. They were blaming an inflation number today for why the markets went down. Well, they came out with an inflation number that was a little hotter. But that would not explain the 10-year yield dropping a whopping 1.14 to 4.255%. That means it went from 4369 for 4255. If the market was worried about inflation, that yield should be going up that much. The market is worried about leadership. the market is worried about uncertainty.

The market is worried about tariffs. And now amazingly, I'm going to say to you, the market is worried about price controls. Price controls. So in case you don't know, the president put on all these big tariffs, I completely wholeheartedly disagree with all of them big time. I can't begin to tell you how much. Then the price controls.

President Trump told companies that he penalized with tariffs. In other words, a company importing a company, importing a car here for $50,000 like a Mercedes are going to have to pay $10,000, 25% to our treasury. Now, you may think, oh, our treasury is getting $10,000. That is a tax hike. Well, the president has warned companies, get this, warned U.S. auto makers not to raise prices in response to his tariffs. The president is threatening with price.

price controls. So let's put two things together. The president wants heavy tariffs, taxes, and now price controls if you don't do what he wants. I'm surprised the market wasn't down 2,000 points today on that. Let me explain. There is no worse economic policy than big tariffs and price controls. You can talk to me blue in the face about he's the greatest negotiator on earth and this is all what he's trying to get things done. But there's a problem with all this

and it's a simple problem. It doesn't make sense. None of it makes sense. And the markets are yelling and screaming at him and of course he is not listening. Unfortunately, I'm going to read to you something. It doesn't matter who wrote it. When I tell you it's somebody that's in the know,

you're going to have to believe me. President Trump's new slate of tariffs on Ford made cars to an executive order has a 25% tariff on all cars and parts made outside the U.S. details expected next week on April 2nd along with other tariff announcements. While starting as a 2.5% tariff-based tariffs can now go as high as 25% with the goal of moving auto production to the U.S. putting greater financial pressure on foreign automakers with global supply change that underutilize U.S. manufacturing plants. A noble thing to get done. over the last 24 hours we have spoken to many in the auto industry from around the U.S. Europe and Asia,

and the conclusion is this tariff announcement in this current form would send the auto industry into pure chaos and raise the average price of cars between 5,000 on the low end and 10 to 15,000 on the high end. Ferrari already said after April 1st it will raise prices on certain models in response to the new tariff. Every automaker in the world will have to raise prices in some form, selling into the U.S. and the supply chain logistics of this tariff announcement heard around the world is hard to even put our arms around at this moment. Even U.S. automakers that produce cars in the U.S. have 40 to 50 percent of auto parts that come from abroad.

A U.S. car with all U.S. parts made in the U.S. is a fictional tale, not even possible today. In our view, it would take three years, three years to move 10 percent of the auto supply chain to the U.S. and cost hundreds of billions of dollars with much complexity and disruption. The concept of this auto tariff in our view would be a backbreaker and Armageddon for the auto industry globally and throws the supply chain into pure panic mode. We believe this adds up to 100 billion of costs annually to the auto industry and will essentially get passed directly onto the consumer and clearly erode demand on day one of tariffs. The winner in our view from this tariff

is no one, as even Tesla still is hit from these tariffs and will be forced to raise prices. We continue this initial 25% tariff on orders from cars outside the U.S. is almost an untenable head-scratching number for the U.S. consumer. We expect to learn more over the next week into April 2nd, but for now, investors will be bewildered by the announcement as this tariff announcement, 25% numbers hard to digest and continue to put major pressure on GM and other automakers' suppliers until more clarity happened. Let me put that in a nutshell. The goal is to have things done here.

It'll take years to get there, yet you're doing the penalizing now. Instead of, well, here's what I'm going to do if you don't start making the move. And the market hates it. That's number one. Number two, you're listening? The economy hates it. Thus, the yields dropping. Need I say more?

market's not dropping for any old reason our president of united states donald trump is into big tariffs and price controls and the market is pissed off is pissed off about the price control part thus we dropped another 700 s and p one hundred and twelve nasdaq 481 nasdaq one hundred five 17 We'll have more up next on Investors Edge. Hi, I'm Gary Kalbaum, hosted a nationally syndicated radio show Investors Edge. We're not just handsome radio people. We manage investors' money for a living, specializing in fee-based discretionary money management.

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The number to call is 888-4-2-5-59. That's 8-8-4-2-5-9. That's 888-4-22-5-59. Investment Advisory Services offered through Call Bomb Capital Management Guys, it's no use putting it off. The best time for an underwear refresh is now. Tommy John underwear is designed for a perfect fit

that stays put all day. Their zero-chafe thanks to four times more stretch than competing brands, and their innovative horizontal quick-draw fly is a game-changer. With over 30 million pairs sold, there are thousands of men out there more comfortable than you. Don't settle for less.

Go to Tommyjohn.com today for 25. percent off your first order with code comfort. That's Tommyjohn.com code comfort. Tommy John, Comfort, perfected. This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply. Lounge access is subject to change. See Capital1.com for details. This episode is brought to you by Spreker. The platform responsible

for a rapidly spreading condition known as podcast brain. Symptoms include buying microphones you don't need, explaining RSS feeds to confused relatives, and saying things like, sorry, I can't talk right now, I'm editing audio. If this sounds familiar, you're probably already a podcaster. The good news is Spreaker makes the whole process. simple. You record your show, upload it once, and Spreaker distributes it everywhere people listen. Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and about a dozen apps your cousin swears are the next big thing. Even better, Spreaker helps you monetize your show with ads, meaning your podcast might someday pay for, well, more microphones. Start your show today at spreeker.com.

Sprinker, because if you're going to talk to yourself for an hour, you might as well publish it. It's time to switch on the integrator units and get the brain service. is working you're listening to hey this promises to be fun investors edge the last bastion of quality programming with gary cult bomb it doesn't get better than this and welcome once again to investors edge now here's the problem here's the problem nobody in the administration is going to tell the president what gargantuan mistake this is the people that love trump so much I will be getting emails from and telling me I'm nuts that I don't know what the hell I'm talking about, that the president is the greatest negotiator on earth and don't

worry. Oh, I'm worried. I am a conservative, logical, fiscally responsible, free market person. this president is shown not to be a free market person he has shown to be an engineering engineer of the economy through penalization of companies to further a goal which by the way I don't mind the goal more manufacturing here sure but that takes a long time to get done

and now he's thrown industry after industry into turmoil. And then now he has shown that he believes in price controls when necessary. You're not raising your prices or else. I would expect that from Maduro in Venezuela, Castro in Cuba. I'm not kidding. It's the worst possible scenario we are getting. and the markets know it.

They are yelling and screaming it. They are yelling and screaming at him. You may think I'm all of a sudden the bad guy if you love Trump. I'm his best friend. The enemy of Trump is one that keeps saying, yes, sir, you're perfect and you're always right. The best friend is the one that says, sir, let me show the error of your ways back on the market.

As we have been saying to you, I have no idea how long a bearish phase lasts or how far it goes. I will just tell you it worsened today. Many in area are in big downtrends. We knew that way in advance. We have been telling you about the home builders, retail, semiconductors, transports, airlines, truckers, rails, cruise lines now, hotels, travel, restaurants. We've been telling you about all these places recently. Financials of all stripes.

A lot of the economically sensitive names, know, the construction, the building, the chemicals, the industrials, and the like. And of course, the AI trade, which we have absolutely positively warned you about. And they are not just in bare markets. They're in some serious bare markets. On top of that is just a ton of technology. that has just been smeared, deep dives. And anything that was holding up, remember we have our favorites.

Holding up. But as we tell you, if things worsen, eventually they get them all. Netflix down 45 today. Spotify down 19. Palantir down 5. DoorDash, down 12. Mercado Libre down 96. Those were the ones that were holding up.

they did not hold up today. I wish I had more to tell you, wish I had better news. Do I think the president is going to change his mind because of the market? Well, here is a problem. He is out, and I'm pretty much quoting him, these tariffs to 25% on the whole auto industry are staying from my whole presidency. He stated that. Can he actually backtrack that?

you know there is something called ego involved and by the way that's not a rib we all have egos how can he now backtrack when he firmly states it's here to stay from my whole presidency don't know i have said to you i hope whatever he's doing works out i don't think it's working out And there's one other part of this equation, ladies and gentlemen. We believe there has been two parts of the economy over the last few years. Joe Biden's corrupt, gargantuan increase of government, and the wealth effect from markets. Well, rightfully so, Doge is doing the job on government,

and I highly recommend if you go to my Twitter feed, watch Brett Baers interview with Elon Musk and the Doge people from last night. It is there. It is there. But the other part is the wealth effect. The markets. The markets are waning. If they continue to wane, what happens to the wealth effect?

That suffers also. There's your economy. I have no idea what happens on Monday. I have no idea what happens next week. We certainly know what has happened so far. And today was a rough day. And I must tell you, normally when you have rough days, there's attempts to rally throughout the day.

There wasn't even a good attempt to bounce this market in any way, shape, or form today. Wish we had better news. I don't. I have yet to scan. I know what I'm going to find. Deeper do-do. You may email me if you disagree. Be respectful.

But if you're going to email me and disagree, come with some ammo. Come with some good reasoning. Not Trump knows what he's doing. There was an inflation number today. Yes, it was a little bit more than expected. The market didn't care about it. The 10-year yield dove today.

Up next. More on the markets, news of the day. Doge Moment. I'm Gary. This is the one only investor's edge. Guys, it's no use putting it off. The best time for an underwear refresh is now. Tommy John Underwear is designed for a perfect fit that stays put all day. Their zero-chafe thanks to four times more stretch than competing brands. And their innovative horizontal quick-draw fly is a game-changer.

With over 30 million pairs sold, there are thousands of men out there more comfortable than you. Don't settle for less. Tommyjohn.com today for 25% off your first order with code comfort. That's Tommyjohn.com code comfort. Tommy John. Comfort perfected. This message is brought to you by the Capital One VentureX card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect.

Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport. Lounge is worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply. Lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details. This episode is brought to you by Sprecker. The platform responsible for a rapidly spreading condition known as podcast brain. Symptoms include buying microphones you don't need, explaining RSS feeds to confused relatives, and saying things like, sorry, I can't talk right now. I'm editing audio. If this sounds familiar, you're probably

already a podcaster. The good news is Spreaker makes the whole process simple. You record your show, upload it once, and Spreaker distributes it everywhere people listen. Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and about a dozen apps your cousins swears are the next big thing. Even better, Spreaker helps you monetize your show with ads, meaning your podcast might someday pay for, well, more microphones. Start your show today at spreeker.com. Spreaker, because if you're going to talk to yourself for an hour, you might as well publish it. You're listening to. America is talking.

Investors Edge. He's got to be pleased with that. The crowd is just on his feet here. He's a Cinderella boy. With Gary Colbomb. It comes highly recommended. You're going to feel better if you talk to him. And welcome once again to Investors Edge.

Uh, the Doge moment. Well, for starters again, go watch the interview with Brett Bear from Fox News. It's at my Twitter. feed was very enlightening interesting that even John Stewart I would say he's a lefty was out complaining about the Biden administration because it has now been confirmed and as usual I would like to know where the money went the Biden administration supposedly spent $42 billion to expand broadband to more Americans, but connected zero homes in four years. Isn't that nice? Isn't that nice?

Here's one. Elon Musk says the federal government spent $1 billion on a survey that would have cost $10,000 on survey monkey. There was literally, this is what he says. There was literally a 10-questioned survey that you could do with SurveyMonkey for 10,000 where the government was charged almost a billion dollars. Now, let me state for the record, I haven't seen it yet. I'm believing Mr. Musk. I think it's incumbent upon us to find out where that billion dollars went and we'll find out more corruption by close friends of the administration. It's stunning, huh? Isn't it stunning?

It's stunning that this is what we're finding. And yet the left is fighting it. They're fighting it. And interesting, Mr. Musk said, the people that are fighting it, one would have to assume they've been part of the corrupt and the fraud. I must tell you, I do not think I can argue with that. considering what we found with Stacey Abrams and other things. And by the way, as I stated, they are clawing back that $2 billion from that grifter.

And that is your Doge moment for today. Please watch that interview. Other news? Well, remember what we told you about the semis and the AI that we wonder if things are going to be reported after the fact, after things are already down. Taiwan semi, this is one that does the making of the Nvidia chips, is

scaling back growth at its Kumamoto plant pushing equipment installs for certain chips to 2026. Utilization rates are running lower than expected as demand for mature chips

slumps. Executive site slow recovery in auto-industrial sectors and say Trump's tariff threats have pushed the industry into wait and see mode. Well, by the way, in defense of that, any company that has a slowdown now is now going to blame Trump and tariffs. That's how it goes. Sometimes it's the weather, sometimes it's this. Now they're all going to blame it on Trump tariffs.

And we're not so sure they're not full of crap. In other news, let's get away for the market. from the second. More protest in Gaza from Ghazans wanting to end the 18-year rule of Hamas. They're sick and tired of it. Interesting. You mean they're finally fed up with the fact that billions were absconded by a select few scumbags that have been hiding in five-star hotels in Qatar and other places while they lived in squalor. Really? You mean they're finally pissed off about what happened in October 7th that had Israel go in to take out Hamas? Really? Well, it's about time. Just letting you know the media is not headlining it. I think I saw it on page 18 of the New York crimes. I mean the New York Times. Just letting you know. And that's of import. Oh, by the way, I have to flip back to President Trump. He pardoned Trevor Milton. You know who that is?

The guy who was indicted for fraud for Nicola. That was the electric vehicle company that he lied out his arse on contracts and stuff. President Trump pardoned him. That pisses me off. He pardoned a huckster. Maybe we'll talk about that. a little bit later on another day. Anyway, those are the big stories of the day.

A lot of moving parts. But all I can tell you at the close of the day, it was gross. And I'm already getting emails from people. Are you worried about Monday? I just want to get through the weekend. Bitcoin was down because of the NASDAQ was. down. And I must mention micro strategy, whose stock now has gone from a high of 543 to 289.

I have something very important to say, and as always you decide. The guy who runs micro strategy is gentleman by the name of Sailor, his last name. We try to be careful with our word. We try to Be careful with our words. So we'll just tell you what he said and give you out the number. He was at a blockchain summit and said Bitcoin is going to $50 million and set it with a very straight face. $50 million. What did close at today? $80,000?

Okay. If it went to $50 million, it would make Bitcoin worth $1,000. quadrillion dollars. That would be 10 times global GDP. Watch your Bitcoin. As we told you, GameStop now is going to turn into a Bitcoin owner. And remember what we told you. 31, 32, 33,000 coins would try to be foisted on you and most of them are zero.

There's still a few left, but hardly trade. Ethereum, the number two coin that was the end all be all blockchain this and that has crashed we'll be watching it pisses us off that he predicts 50 million because that's a laugher

you would think the 1.5 million would be enough from the other young lady that runs some funds and that would be your Bitcoin story of a day as we close the week the Dow below the 200 day moving average got a little bit above it failed

the S&P ran right into it failed rolling over the NASDAQ almost back to the lows of the last three weeks the NASDAQ 100 almost at the lows of the last three weeks and by the way this is in major downtrends

the transports are just in not good. The Russell 2000, near New Yearly Lows. I have not much redeeming to tell you. The one area that's supposedly good is sentiment is very, very bearish, but it's been that way for weeks. And as we tell you, sentiment is a secondary indicator, not primary, and certainly not a pinpoint indicator,

which means there's very often a lot of lag time. And many times I've seen it not work so great. Up next, we'll wind up this crappy week. This is the one only investor's edge. It's no use putting it off. The best time for an underwear refresh is now. Tommy John underwear is designed for a perfect fit that stays put all day. Their zero chafe thanks to four times more stretch than competing brands.

And their innovative horizontal quick-draw fly is a game changer. With over 30 million pairs sold, there are thousands of of men out there more comfortable than you. Don't settle for less. Go to Tommyjohn.com today for 25% off your first order with code comfort. That's Tommyjohn.com code comfort. Tommy John, Comfort perfected. This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide.

The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply, lounge access is subject to change. See Capital1.com for details. This episode is brought to you by Spreaker. The platform responsible for a rapidly spreading condition known as podcast brain. Symptoms include buying microphones you don't need, explaining RSS feeds to confused relatives, and saying things like, sorry, I can't talk right now, I'm editing audio. If this sounds familiar, you're probably already a podcaster. The good news is Spreaker makes the whole process simple. You record your show, upload it once, and Spreaker distributes it everywhere people listen.

Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and about a dozen apps your cousin swears are the next big thing. Even better, Spreaker helps you monetize your show with ads, meaning your podcast might someday pay for, well, more microphones. Start your show today at spreeker.com. Sprinker, because if you're going to talk to yourself for an hour, you might as well publish it. You're listening to What are we waiting for? Well, what are you waiting for?

One, two, ready, go. Investors Edge with Gary Kaltba. And welcome once again to Investors Edge. Thanks of being with us today. I'm heading to, where am I going? I'm going to Milwaukee this weekend. Milwaukee. I'm actually going to a place called

Man oh man I'm staying at a hotel in It's like an Indian name I think or something I gotta figure it out I'll get it for you it's pretty cool I don't think I can pronounce the name I've got a little family

business To take care of And yeah I'm looking right now I gotta find the name of this for you it's between Milwaukee and Madison Okono Mo Walk I'm staying in

Okonomo Wisconsin Okonomowoc Yeah that's the ticket Flying into Milwaukee And I'm flying on Spirit Air And may I state for the record?

I flew Spirit Air recently and everything went just quite well. It went very well. Just letting you know. And I do believe they're out of bankruptcy. They went into bankruptcy. They're out. I got to believe that eventually they're going to be bought. The last administration blocked the JetBlue Spirit Air.

By the way, the Spirit Air stock is gone. It went to zero. That's part of the restructuring. And we'll see if this administration, if something else comes up. And I heard there's rumblings. I do not know. We wish we had better news. But we deal in reality here.

And we have no bias. We don't. We've proven time and time again. We have no bias about R, D, or I, or anything in between. We just want good policy. Good policy. And remember what we've said to you. Lower taxes, less regulation, get out of the way.

And everything would be great. We've ended up with lower taxes, less regulations, massive amounts of tariffs that have gone back and forth 14 times over a month or two period. And now price controls. That's price. By the way, the definition of price controls is what he's threatening. I am going to try and reach out to the administration, but I think they would go tell me that you know what. I want to bring up core weave. So just so you know, there's a stock, CRWV that came public today.

A.I. And it was a $40 deal. I don't know their numbers yet but the only way it was supposed to be a $50 deal came out at 40, went to 38, closed at 40 I don't know what the valuation

is actually I'm showing $19 billion I'm not sure what the sales are as of yet I'm sure I'll have that over the weekend but the only way the stock got done

the IPO, is that Nvidia came in, I guess Nvidia does some big business with them or a certain amount of business, and bought up like a quarter billion dollars worth of the stock at IPO. And that's completely legal. Completely legal.

I just have the word but next to the statement of, yeah, it's completely legal, but they are supplier We'll see how it plays out. I've got to get all the numbers on it first before I tell you about it. It's AI, and they were able to get it public,

even though artificial intelligence is in a big bear market. And anybody tells you the opposite is BSing you. It is now a big bare market, whether a data center like Verte of holding, 155 to 74 oh that would be more than a 50% drop since mid-January you think that's a bare market huh how about astera labs AI infrastructure 147 to 60 you think that's a bare market even broadcom 252 to 169 That's over 30% now, right?

That's a bare market. Taiwan Semiconductor. 226 to 165. 60 bucks on 226. Oh, that would be about 36. That's a bare market. We just want you to remember it because we watch things closely and they're still telling you not to worry.

AI is going to be huge. But if you had a basket of the artificial intelligence stocks just since mid-January, you'd probably be down about 35%. That'd be my guess. And then they're the big spenders. Remember Oracle, we're going to spend billions. Well, since that day, it's gone from 1.9. 72 to 140.

52 on 1.19. Oh, that's about 25, 26%, right? Right. What were the other big spenders? Do you remember? I'm trying to remember myself. They're a bunch. Anyway, have a good weekend.

Drive carefully. I'll be in Milwaukee. If you know of a good restaurant, let me know. And when you get home, do like we do, quite simple. Make sure you hug your family. Make sure you hug your children. feel better you'll feel better i promise they will be well serenity now have a great one bye bye this has been investors edge with gary cult bomb on biz talk to listen to past episodes or to get in

contact with gary go to gary k dot com that's gary kd come guys it's no use putting it off the best time for an underwear refresh is now Tommy john underwear is designed for a perfect fit that stays put all day there's zero-chafe thing to four times more stretch than competing brands, and their innovative horizontal quick draw fly is a game changer. With over 30 million pairs sold, there are thousands of men out there more comfortable than you.

Don't settle for less. Go to Tommyjohn.com today for 25% off your first order with Code Comfort. That's Tommyjohn.com code comfort. Tommy John. Comfort perfected. This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase,

bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply. Lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details.