Investor's Edge with Gary Kaltbaum - The very good week in review [05.16.2025]

Episode Date: May 16, 2025

https://garykaltbaum.com/

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to go to Existence, yes. Investor's Edge with Gary Coltbaum. Straight talk about you and your money. Now from the BizTalk Studios, here is Gary Cultbaum. And welcome once again to Investors Edge. I'm Gary Coltbaum, your host. A thanks for being with us today.

Glad you here, ladies and gentlemen, happy that you're listening. It is Friday, May 16th, 2025. And if you hear sirens, that's because we are in New York City. in our little New York City well we call it an office because as you know we move our screens with us wherever we go we can do our show from anywhere in the world

we can work from anywhere in the world welcome to modern technology I still remember when I used to my chart books I used to get these blue and green chart books to read the market every Sunday and I had to update them every day with pencil

my oh my how things change. Hope you're having a good day. Very good week in the market. A big change happened over last weekend and maybe something else going into next week also. But first, this is serious talk on everything that affects you. We will do markets. The economy, your job, your industry. A budget deal that got knocked down today by the

Republicans who we applaud and will explain why. And if you do not get this radio show in your city, we'll post it at garyk.com, we'll post it on our Twitter feed, which is now X. And if you don't follow us, you should. And if you'd like to email us,

just be nice. Okay. So ladies and gentlemen, This is how I can explain it to you. Applied materials. You know what they are? They're an important semiconductor equipment maker. Stock was down 5% today on their guidance, which was poor. The stock has been in the bare market, has rallied up recently

with the rest of the market, but got hit today. In a bare market, it would carry other stocks with it. It would carry the NASDAQ with it. NASDAQ was up 98 today. The NASDAQ 100 was up 92. Arm Holdings was up $2.2. Micron was up. A few other semiconductors were up.

And semis were down today as a whole, but nominally, bullish market. Simple as that. Bad news does not get sold badly in a bullish market. Good news is bought up nicely. In bearish markets, good news is ignored and bad news is crushed. We want to remind you again of what's happened because there is a lot of misinformation out there because of partisanship.

You know what that is, right? So we repeat again. On April 3rd and April 4th, the market crashed. The reason why it crashed is because the president came out without launch tariffs on the world. Simple as that. Over the weekend, we presume we weren't there. there was some serious talks at either the White House or Moralago, wherever they were, about the market crashing. They also knew that one plus one equal two, that they were crashing because of the tariffs, even though they refused to admit it.

so coming back on Monday they were going to announce a pause in the tariffs that were put on the world just days before but on that Monday their pause was leaked by the media so they came out and stated there isn't any pause That Monday, the Dow rallied up 2,000 points in a half hour on that rumor. Drop 2,000 points when the administration said it wasn't true. But it was true. They didn't like the fact it was leaked. They waited until Wednesday, and they announced the pause. markets rallied up 2,500 points within a half hour.

Into the next week, markets pulled back because the president amazingly went back and forth confusing the markets. Until the next week, when all of a sudden not only was the pause, but all of a sudden they were talking to China, even though China says they weren't. In other words, they were reaching out to China because they had to. The market bottomed on that Monday. That was the confirming follow-through day that we talked about to you that we said complexion may have changed. We use the words may have because not so sure with all this going on. Well, markets rallied for a couple of weeks into this past weekend. And guess what? They're calling it a deal. We're not calling it a deal, but the 145% tariffs on China went down to 30. In turn, China knocked those tariffs on us.

what happened for the week up 3.3% simple as that most of it was a gap to the upside on Monday so what you need to know tariffs crash the market

the removal of tariffs has us going back up the Dow is weaker than everything but that's because of one stock, United Health. United Health stock since April 15th, let's call it April 10th, has dropped 300 and 10 points. It's about 2,000 down points. If it had not, and by the way, everything counts, but we're throwing the if in there. If United Health was just flat from that day, the right now would be at 44,635 within a stone's throw of the old highs.

So leave no doubt tariffs slash taxes. It has changed the playing field to the upside. Near-term markets are stretched. They're extended. They are overbought. You have a bunch of, I'm going to be nice in saying, Pukes, P-U-K-E-S, that were losing their arse while the market was crashing, didn't know what the hell was going on,

and now they're going on TV saying, told you so, when they didn't know what was going to happen. Because the fact of the matter is if those tariffs stayed, we'd be 5,000 points lower right now. easily easily so as we stated stretched extended overbought a lot of bullishness has entered the fray but as we have said to you constructive as all heck and I would be not surprised to see the old highs getting taken out in the weeks ahead as long as the president does not get crazy again with those tariffs. If he gets crazy again, markets will

get trashed again. How do we know? Because that's what happened in the first place. That's all. The S&P was up 5% this week, the NASDAQ 100, up 6 in change this week. off of the backing off of the tariffs, taxes from the president and from China reacting to the president. And you can call it for what it is, what it was, you can blame it on one person, the other don't care. Outcome is everything. Up next, what else we got for you on the week? This is the one only investors edge. I'm Gary Kalbaum, hosted a nationally syndicated radio show Investors Edge. We're not just handsome radio people.

We manage investors' money for a living, specializing in fee-based discretionary money management. No big commissions, just a fee on the assets that's managed. We also provide a full range of personalized services, including retirement planning, fixed income, and educational needs, all to assist you in achieving your financial goals. Understanding not all individuals have the same needs, will carefully evaluate your personal goals to determine a proper investment strategy.

If your current approach to investing is not getting you to where you would like to be, call us to make an appointment for a complementary portfolio review. The number to call is 888-4-2-5-59. That's 8-8-5-59. That's 888-4-22-55-59. Investment advisory services offered through call-bomb Capital, management. Guys, it's no use putting it off.

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That's Tommyjohn.com code comfort. Tommy John. Comfort perfected. This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination.

Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply. Lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details. This episode is brought to you by Spreaker. The platform responsible for a rapidly spreading condition known as podcast brain. Symptoms include buying microphones you don't need, explaining RSS feeds to confused relatives, and saying things like, sorry, I can't talk right now, I'm editing audio. If this sounds familiar, you're probably already a podcaster. The good news is Spreaker makes the whole process simple. You record your show, upload it once, and Spreaker distributes it everywhere people listen. Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and about a dozen apps your cousin's swears are the next big thing.

Even better, Spreaker helps you monetize your show with ads, meaning your podcast might someday pay for, well, more microphones. Start your show today at spreeker.com. Sprinker, because if you're going to talk to yourself for an hour, you might as well publish it. It's time to switch on the integrator units and get the brain cells. working you're listening to hey this promises to be fun investors edge the last bastion of quality programming with gary cult bomb it doesn't get better than this and welcome once again to investors edge uh thanks for being here uh we have told you in recent days in last couple weeks pay attention to the new yearly high list and uh what you decide to do with it is up to you it just started to

to increase. Where she stops, we don't know. But that's of import. So let me repeat a couple of things again. Markets are stretched. Markets are extended. Markets are overbought. Markets have a good dose of greed and bullishness that have gone almost coast to coast from the crash, which is very normal. Pullbacks can happen at any time. As long as they are constructive, it's markets in good stead. As long as the president doesn't go wacko again on the tariffs, we think there's a chance of the old highs being taken out. Not the doubt, because you have one stock killing it to the tune of 2,000 points. but the other indices that are of import. If anything changes, we will let you know.

We're always looking for distribution in the market. Distribution is heavy volume selling. It did not happen this week again. And the explanation on tariffs are simple. They are a tax on our business. and our consumers potentially because our businesses get to decide on whether they are going to put upon those higher prices to the consumer. I can tell you, Walmart has announced that the tariffs that are already on, which are much lower than they were going to be, they may have to raise prices a little bit. Remember, Walmart is the low-priced company out there.

And the reason they're able to keep low prices is they can negotiate with suppliers in a much easier fashion because of how much they buy at any one time. Walmart does, how much, about $650 billion in revenues? 165, 345, 445, 445, 515, 615, 685, 685, 685 billion of sales in the last year, Walmart. And I didn't even realize they have 10,750 Walmart slash Sam's Clubs. What a story, huh? What a story. And it's an instructive story in that, and let me explain this the best way, Kmart's basically gone. I think they don't have any left, right?

And they sold the same things. Think about that. It's an amazing story. Amazing, magnificent, unbelievable, stunning, stunning. stunning. And that's why we've been doing these visionary mind things with you because we're going to do that almost every day on just greatness.

Greatness. And it also explains to you without telling you who fails. And why? Going into next week, we're past a lot of earnings. And we'll see what next week brings. Now I want to bring up the Middle East. As you know, we have taken on the president when we think he's doing wrong. We have complimented him when we think he is doing right.

We think the Middle East was masterclass for the business world. We never know what the outcome is going to be. Somebody says they're going to spend $100 billion here. I don't believe numbers. And if past this prologue, all these numbers being bandied about, Probably they'll spend 25% on that. But I watched closely just a lot of leadership from the president. It felt good.

And I can be wrong. And we're not thrilled about that jet. And by the way, I have a sneaking suspicion that jet's never going to happen. But I just thought it was master class. And I'm talking business first, not just the war and peace thing, which is another part of the equation. master class nothing but applause for him

on it and we'll see what the outcome's going to be the other part of that equation is imagine if you can get Syria to turn into a Dubai or a Saudi Arabia imagine if you can get these

pukes running Iran doing better imagine Imagine. Imagine all of the Middle East, which mostly found upon terrorism now. That wasn't the case years ago. Imagine. Big stuff. And it just felt like the president, not his backyard, was leading the way. You may disagree that's okay. But man, oh man, I was impressed. And we'll keep watching, and we'll keep talking about it because he's coming home, and I'm hearing he's going to be talking tariffs this week, which does not thrill next week's another week. Pullbacks, I expect. Consolidations, I expect. Feels good still. Gold. Go look at the GLD and see it hold the 50-day moving average today.

on a weekday. We're paying attention to that right here. We did not buy any today. United Health. Boy, we're getting a lot of questions on that one. All it takes is a, what, 300 point drop on a major Dow stock. Our answer to everybody is we have no clue. It bounced pretty good today.

When something is in no man's land, we'll tell you straight out. We have no clue. Your guests will be as good as mine. Not sure if that criminal investigation is for real. Haven't seen much on it today. But I will tell you, leave no doubt. They are in the crosshairs. Up next, the visionary minds.

I'm Gary. This is the one only investors' edge. Guys, it's no use putting it off. The best time for an underwear refresh is now. Tommy John underwear is designed for a perfect fit that stays put all day. Their zero-chafe thanks to four times more stretch than competing brands, and their innovative horizontal quick-draw fly is a game-changer. With over 30 million pairs sold, there are thousands of men out there more comfortable than you. Don't settle for less.

Go to Tommyjohn.com today for 25% off your first order with Code Comfort. That's Tommyjohn.com code comfort. Tommy John. Comfort perfected. This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect. Like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination.

Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply, lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details. This episode is brought to you by Spreker. The platform responsible for a rapidly spreading condition known as podcast brain. Symptoms include buying microphones you don't need, explaining RSS feeds to confused relatives,

and saying things like, sorry, I can't talk right now, I'm editing audio. If this sounds familiar, you're probably already a podcaster. The good news is Spreaker makes the whole process simple. You record your show, upload it once, and Spreaker distributes it everywhere people listen, Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and about a dozen apps your cousin swears are the next big thing. Even better, Spreaker helps you monetize your show with ads, meaning your podcast. might someday pay for, well, more microphones. Start your show today at spreeker.com.

Sprinker, because if you're going to talk to yourself for an hour, you might as well publish it. We're listening to. America is talking. Investor's Edge. He's got to be pleased with that. The crowd is just on his feet here. He's a Cinderella boy.

With Gary Colbomb. It comes highly recommended. You're going to feel better if you talk to him. And what once again to Investors Edge. Up in New York City. By the way, so my beloved New York Knicks are playing at Madison Square Garden tonight against the Celtics. They are leading the series 3-2. It is a must win.

You don't want to go back to Boston, even though they did lose Tatum. The cheapest seat. We're talking nosebleed, $900. And you think there's a recession? the cheapest seat $900 I may be going to Wimbledon as you know I go very often to Wimbledon

the seats used to be for court signed aftermarket used to get them for $1,500 for cent of court for the day $2,500 oh by the way that's pounds recession

now eventually something's going to give we'll see While we're on that subject, real estate, haven't brought that up in a couple of weeks. Here in Central Florida, a ton of inventory. And on the high end prices, anything that doesn't sell prices have to come down. Still fantasy land. But where there's not a lot of inventory, certain areas of Central Florida, things move. But there's some areas where there's hundreds of homes for sale.

Oh, they're coming down in price. We'll keep you informed on it. The condo business in Florida, a different story because of rules and regulations and how much you've got to pay. The condo business has been really coming down in price in many areas in Florida. Visionary minds. Today, we do Howard Schultz. Ye of Starbucks. Howard Schultz was broke

he grew up in public housing in Brooklyn, New York where my birthplace I was born in Sheepshead Bay his father worked low-paying jobs and lost his job after getting injured while working had no money no connections and no backup

but he built Starbucks into a global coffee empire worth over a hundred billion here's the story of how he went from nothing to building one of the most successful businesses in the world. And if I can figure out how to do it, there you go. Schultz was born in 53. His family lived in Bayview housing projects in Canarsie.

As we said, his father worked low-wage jobs, truck driver, factory worker, even a diaper delivery man. Howard was seven, his father slipped on ice and broke his hip. He was fired immediately, no insurance, no workers' car. that experienced shape Schult's view of work and dignity. Sports became his escape. He earned a football scholarship to Northern Michigan. He wasn't a star athlete, but it was his ticket out of poverty. After graduating, he worked in sales, first for Xerox, then for a Swedish kitchenware company that supplied coffee equipment.

One small client stood out, Starbucks. A Seattle-based company selling coffee beans. Intrigued, he flew to Seattle to visit the store. It was small, had no seating, and didn't sell brewed coffee just beans, grinders, and accessories. Still, Schultz saw something different, passion for quality. In 82, he joined Starbucks as head of marketing, and a year later on a trip to Milan, that's Italy, he had a revelation. Espresso bars were everywhere, vibrant, social, full of life.

Coffee was a daily ritual. Schultz returned excited. He wanted Starbucks to become that for America. But the founders disagreed, and they didn't want to turn it into a cafe chain. So in 85, Schultz left and started his own coffee bar called Il Giolani Igelinali was a hit people loved the experience

fast affordable espresso in a warm welcoming space he proved the concept work in 87 the original Starbucks owners decided to sell Schultz bought the company for get this 3.8 million with the help of other investors

he merged it and began building something bigger his strategy grow fast fast, but stay consistent. He focused on store layout, employee training, and customer experience. He wanted every Starbucks to feel familiar, no matter where it was. He also prioritized employee benefits, offering health care, even a part-time workers. That was unheard of at the time. Shultz said he never wanted his people to be treated like his father had been. Starbucks avoided franchising. He

believed direct ownership gave better control over the brand. He wanted the experience, not just the coffee, to be consistent. By the mid-1990, Starbucks was everywhere. Airports, malls, college campuses, city corners. The brand became part of American culture. People weren't just buying coffee. They were buying routine, comfort, and identity. Shultz stepped down in 2000, but returned in 2008 when the company started struggling. He closed hundreds of underperforming stores, improved quality, and retrained baristas. The turnaround worked. Today, Starbucks operates in 80 countries with more than get this, 35,000 stores. Its market value has crossed 100 billion and remains one of the most remarkable brands in the world. He never forgot where he came from. He built Starbucks not just to sell coffee, but to treat people with dignity. For him, business wasn't just profit.

personal that your Starbucks story and I still remember he was on Capitol Hill a few years ago when a couple of Democratic slugs started ripping on him because he was a billionaire and I must tell you I was watching him being ripped on because I knew his story I can't begin to tell you how many blank bombs I was cursing out those stupid moronic imbecilic leftists that were blasted him because he was a billionaire. Ask clowns. The guys created more wealth and jobs than they'll ever have in a hundred of their lifetimes.

In fact, they're negative what they're doing in Washington, D.C. If you could get a video of it, you'll see what I'm talking about. Anyway, that is the story. And by the way, this visionary minds, it's not a website, it's on Instagram, and it's with two Wies. And it just has all the stories of greatness, one after the other, how companies became great. Whether it's Duncan, Apple, I'm looking at Jerry Bus from the Los Angeles Lakers, Lego, Panera, Costco, Nestle's. List goes on and on. and we're going to cover a different story each day.

Why? Maybe it'll trigger something in one of you. Because I have to tell you, I think all these people have one thing in common. They work their asses off. That's number one. Number two, they had passion for what they did. And number three, they didn't see dollar signs.

They saw business growth, which obviously took. turned in to dollar signs. Interesting, huh? Anyway, we'll do more going forward. But I already knew the Starbucks story, and boy, they get a lot of my money. Man, oh man. And by the way, a Starbucks story, when you do a $50 and they hold 40 of it as you keep going back,

I'm told that any given one time there's like a billion and a half dollars in their kitty. and that's just people that bank money so that it's their app. Another smart story on their part. And they're probably getting 4% on that money because it's probably in money markets. Anyway, a little bit of the Starbucks story. And, you know, I'm here in New York City, it's like on every corner. It's like on every corner. I don't think you can go down a street, maybe a street and a half.

without seeing the Starbucks. And you know what? They're all busy. It's amazing to watch. Howard Schultz did that. And we've always talked to you about, especially restaurant chains, find something and be able to place it in every city around the country.

That's what Chipotle did. That's what all the great chains have done. Find one little idea and place it everywhere. I was reading the story about five guys. The burger chain started with one. Boom. Up next. Next week.

And whatever else. I'm Gary. This is the one only investor's edge. Guys, it's no use putting it off. The best time for an underwear refresh is now. Tommy John underwear is designed for a perfect fit that stays put all day. They're zero-chafe thanks to four times more stretch than competing brands and their innovative. of horizontal quick draw fly is a game changer. With over 30 million pairs sold, there are thousands of

men out there more comfortable than you. Don't settle for less. Go to Tommyjohn.com today for 25% off your first order with code comfort. That's Tommyjohn.com code comfort. Tommy John. Comfort perfected. This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card.

What's in your wallet? Terms apply, lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details. This episode is brought to you by Spreaker. The platform responsible for a rapidly spreading condition known as podcast brain. Symptoms include buying microphones you don't need, explaining RSS feeds to confused relatives, and saying things like, sorry, I can't talk right now, I'm editing audio.

If this sounds familiar, you're probably already a podcaster. The good news is Spreaker makes the whole process simple. You record your show, upload it once, and Spreaker distributes it everywhere people listen, Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and about a dozen apps your cousin swears are the next big thing. Even better, Sprinker helps you monetize your show with ads, meaning your podcast might someday pay for, well, more microphones. Start your show today at spreeker.com. Sprinker, because if you're going to talk to yourself for an hour, you might as well publish it.

You're listening to. What are we waiting for? Well, what are you waiting for? One, two, ready, go. Investors Edge with Gary Culpa. Da-da-da. And walk once again to Investor's Edge. Hey, thanks for being with us today.

So we just want to be a little bit repetitive to let you know what's happened here. And I do it because everybody's a partisan, unfortunately. Everybody's a partisan. We're not. We hate everybody. 37 trillion of debt speaks volumes. And it was a little bit newsy today. The president, rip, you ready for this?

So the boss, Bruce Springsteen, is in United Kingdom and he's blasting Trump, blasting them. And he really shouldn't. But look, freedom of speech or whatever, but you shouldn't. Bruce Springsteen, a man of influence, is blasting our country is great, but blasting the president. I don't know if you should or not. Either way, the president puts out a tweet or whatever he calls it, Jeze Rippin' Bruce Springsteen as a dried-out prune, a terrible musician, washed up, mentally incompetent, says Taylor Swift no longer hot. I wish he'd stop that.

I wish I was in his ear. I would help him out big time. No need for that stuff. But Springsteen, no need for that. Shut up. Go sing your songs. Seriously. Seriously. So I just want to be a little repetitive. Again, because the partisanship out there, Donald Trump economic policy crashed the market. This was not a plan. The people that love him are trying to tell us he planned it all along. That's bull crap. Total unadulterated.

bull crap. He crashed the market because of one of the most stupid economic policies ever, and that is tariff the hell out of every country out there, which means taxing everybody here, every business, big or small, and of course the consumer. That crash forced their hand to pause the next week. That bottomed the market and got it going. in again. But this week, they came to some sort of whatever, not a trade deal, but a little bit of a takedown of all the nasty tariffs with China. That goose the market by 5% this week on the S&P. That's how important the tariffs were. But you need to know something. This was not planned, it was forced to change the stance. And I bring that up because you need to know if the

president changes his mind again and goes back to where he was, he will crush the markets again. One has to believe that the emotions of fear and greed have taken over to where they will not. And what do we mean by that?

Fear of losing their arse in the midterm elections, and I can promise you the markets would dictate that come next November. The greed of the markets doing better Who doesn't want the markets to do better when you are the president of the United States?

You are attached at the hip. So I just wanted to be repetitive to make sure you know, because I heard some people today on TV saying it was a plan all long, and they are BSing you. They don't believe it. I can promise you that. They know exactly what. happened we don't have the bias here we lost the love of anybody in DC a long time ago

now we wish the president well we are thrilled that they pivoted and we are hoping that it stays that way simple as that we will keep you up to date on a daily basis, but markets much better. Most everything coming up the right side. Economically sensitive stocks have been coming on also. Why? Because they got trashed because of the tariffs slash taxes. This is the comeback. Now we're getting towards the old highs. If we break above them. Well, we've already told you better be in already. But if we break above them, I expect institutions to pile on, which means higher prices. That is an if we are not there yet. And the Dow will be rough going because of one stock, that being United Health. That's going to be a

tough road. But in the Dow, we can tell you, McDonald's is close, IBM is close again, the financials have come on, travelers is close, Visa is close to break it into new high grounds. And I don't think there are any Dow stocks in new highs right now. But if we start to see a few of them, it's going to be very, very, very. meaningful. That's the story. Don't believe the partisans. It was a mistake. They alleviated the mistake. Let's hope they do not repeat the mistake. If they do, they'll have only themselves to blame and we'll rip the stuffings out of them again, just like we did when he put on those tariffs, slash

taxes. So we'll go into next week with the market overbought, stretched extended, with a dose of greed and bullishness, but so far so good. You all have a great weekend. Drive carefully.

When you get home, do like we do. Quite simple. Make sure you hug your family. Make sure you hug your children. They will feel better. You will feel better. I promise. Go Nix.

They better win tonight. You don't want to go back to Boston. Until Monday, peace out all. Serenity now. Good night. This has been Investors Edge with Gary Cult Bomb on BizTalk. To listen to past episodes or to get in contact with Gary, go to GaryK.com. That's GaryK.com.

Guys, it's no use putting it off. The best time for an underwear refresh is now. Tommy John underwear is designed for a perfect fit that stays put all day. There's zero-chafe thanks to four times more stretch than competing brands. and their innovative horizontal quick draw fly is a game changer. With over 30 million pairs sold, there are thousands of men out there more comfortable than you. Don't settle for less. Go to Tommyjohn.com today for 25% off your first order with Code Comfort.

That's Tommyjohn.com code comfort. Tommy John. Comfort perfected. This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit. for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination.

Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply. Lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details.