Investor's Edge with Gary Kaltbaum - The Wall?

Episode Date: November 28, 2022

Follow Gary on GaryK.com or http://garykaltbaum.com

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Terms apply. Lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for detail. Investor's Edge with Gary Coltbaum. Straight talk about you and your money. Now from the BizTalk Studios, here is Gary Cultbaum. And welcome once again to Investors Edge. I'm Gary Coltbaum, your host day.

Thanks for being with us today. Glad you here, ladies and gentlemen. Happy that you are listening. It is November 28th, 2020. And may I state, hope you had a great Thanksgiving. with you and your family. We have a lot, and look, we complain a lot here, and for good reason, but we do have a lot to be thankful for.

Unfortunately, we also have things we're not thankful for, and that is what I whine and complain about here, almost on a daily basis because they never let go. but that's for another moment. Just again, happy Thanksgiving. We head into the end of the year, into the big holidays. We wish everybody a safe, happy, and healthy one. And then we go into 2023.

And just so you know for each and every one of you, yes, life does go quicker as you get older. I feel like I'm missing a decade or two at this point. It's a very good day in the Colbaum household. My son Eric had to take a very, very, very, very, very big test. You know, the ones that you really study your, you know what's off, and you're not sure if you're going to pass and he passed. And it's one of those tests where they give you pass or fail immediately. if you pass they just say you pass if you fail they give you your score he passed doesn't matter

what the test is it was a one of those i can't use the word on the show can i it was one of those blank busters how's that but he passed and i was with him in europe he took every minute that we Weren out to study. I was with him in New York for the last few days, every minute studying. And he passed. So I am thrilled, proud, hard work paid off for my son. Anyway, I hope you had a happy Thanksgiving. This is a show about you and your money and everything that affects it. you know, we only used to do markets the economy, markets economy, stocks, stocks, market stocks, market stocks, market economy. But at the beginning of 2000, we recognized that the interlopers were getting more and more involved. And of course, we were right as the debt and deficits have skyrocketed.

We will continue to cover it as we move forward. We will continue to cover the leaders of this country that are letting us down in ways unimaginable with debt and deficits and rules. and regulations and fees and fines and mandates and all that. We weep. We weep. We weep. For who's running the country? We weep for who announced that they were running for the presidency again.

We weep for all this. Do you know the most emails I got this week and weekend were on one subject? as a Jew what do I think of Trump you know what my answer that is I'm not going to say it but you know what I think if it looks like it sounds like it tastes like it

feels like it hangs around with it it is it and I already didn't like them serenity now and of course then you have the guy running the show now who is a influence peddling Marxist And yes, I do believe he is the big guy. Yes, I do believe the media blacked it out in order to get him elected.

Yes, I believe he's an influence peddle with his son that was going to make all kinds of money through influence pedaling. Just like the Clintons who have perfected it, it's just nauseating to watch all of these people. And I don't need to just single them out. I can talk about hundreds of others in D.C. that insider trade. I can go on and on. They're lucky they have us. Unfortunately, they think we work for them, not the other way around. And that's how you get the $31 trillion of debt.

That's how you get an out-of-control central bank that caused the inflation and all kinds of other problems that we're still seeing in droves. And they're still running the show. That's how you get 2008 where all these financial wizards committed fraud, massive fraud, not one of them, indicted because they're best buddies with D.C., who was best buddies with them, and these people that were fraudulent go to D.C. to become politicians or in the administrations, and the people in the administration of the politicians go to Wall Street. And I repeat, that's how you get the $31 trillion of debt. Anyway, I was also asked lots of emails on China. Well, it's simple. People have had enough. Same thing's going on with Iran. The people have had enough. You have societies

that are destroying all freedoms. Freedom of speech, freedom of movement, freedom of think, and they've had enough. Outcome, I don't know. If I was president right now, if I was president the United States right now. You know what? I'd be yelling and screaming every day. Way to go. Keep it up. The guy who's running China is destroying the place. I can never visit Hong Kong ever again. I can never visit China ever again. Because of the things I'm saying on radio, I have to wonder if they're listening in and whether they're going to lock me up. Iran, well, I'm never going to be in Tehran anyhow, but people have had enough. They see the freedom. of other countries. How it plays out again, I don't know. But it's great to see. I don't think

this administration's been loud enough. The backing of the people. Yeah, they've been kind of sort of. I wish they'd speak louder. Anyway, markets. Well, coming into this week, well, coming into this week, as we have told you, it's been a Dow type market. It's been a low risk, very liquid market. while the NASDAQ and NASDAQ 100, you wouldn't even know there was a rally. And this has had me worried. And we've been conveying that pretty much on a daily basis. Why? As we've explained, the NASDAQ and NASDAQ 100 is what we call risk on.

It's risk appetite of the markets. And we worry when the Dow goes V shape and the NASDAQAW. just sits near the lows, and the NASDAQ 100 sits at the lows, and the S&P is in between. We worry when it just feels like they're parking money in the most liquid, boring, Dow-type names, while risk is off. So we worry. And maybe just maybe today, we may have hit the wall. Let me take that back. A wall.

And what do we mean by that? Well, we've rallied up and we hit blockade. Sellers took over. Not 100% certain, but there are few things happening at once. That may be saying that. And as you know, we pretty much called every countertren rally top within a day, some to the day. so today will not go down on the good side of the resume in fact pretty much on the putrid side tomorrow there'll be another day but we're going to have lots to cover we don't usually

care about reasons why but we're going to throw one out to you today that we think fueled a little bit of it. But if the market's going to go higher, it's going to go higher in spite. If the market's going to go lower, it's going to go lower in spite. You do know that, right? So we'll cover all that and more. Just remember, in bare markets, muy importante. Capital, the closer you are to your high watermark, obviously the more money you have, but also your psychosante. But also your cyclone. in much better shape than somebody who's down 30%. And I can promise you, we watch mutual funds. There are a lot of growth funds down in the 30s, if not more.

Up next, full market wrap, Movers of the Day, news of the day, I'm Gary. This is the one only Investor's Edge. Hi, I'm Gary Kalpom, hosted a nationally syndicated radio show Investors Edge. We're not just handsome radio people. We manage investors' money for a living, specializing in fee-based. discretionary money management. No big commissions, just a fee on the assets that's managed. We also provide a full range of personalized services, including retirement planning, fixed income, and educational needs, all to assist you in achieving your financial goals. Understanding not all

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The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply. Lounge Access is subject to change. See Capital1.com for details. This episode is brought to you by Spreaker. The platform I'm responsible for a rapidly spreading condition known as podcast brain. Symptoms include buying microphones you don't need, explaining RSS feeds to confused relatives, and saying things like, sorry, I can't talk right now, I'm editing audio. If this sounds familiar, you're probably already a podcaster. The good news is Spreaker makes the whole process simple. You record your show, upload it once, and Sprinker distributes it everywhere people listen.

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Hey, this promises to be fun. Investors Edge. The last bastion of quality programming. With Gary Coltbaum. It doesn't get better than this. And welcome once again to Investor's Edge. So we must continue to cover the crypto. We hope you listen.

I receive phone calls from people thanking me now. In airports, people come up to me. Thanking me. We've said from day one, it's a freaking bubble. And it's going to burst. We warned you about all the crypto stocks. And I'm not even talk about Bitcoin Ethereum. I'm talking about Coinbase and micro strategy.

Coinbase was invented to trade crypto, so it was going to be a crash. It's crashed. Micro Strategy, all they did was invest in it. It's crashed. And I can go on. And now, as we also told you, many moons ago, that 90% of the coins would drop 90% or more with most going to zero. It's what happened. but we also told you something else.

That when it all blows up, we will find out there's going to be plenty of criminals. And we're getting a few now. But you know what else is happening? I call it the big gigantic bubble unwind. And what that means is we start finding out names of companies we never even heard of. I didn't know what blockfi was, B-L-O-C-F-I.

Well, whoever they were, they had a bunch of crypto in there, whatever. They're filing for bankruptcy today. It's the food chain, the chain of events, going by-bye. And you know what I'm really worried about? There's many people out there right now that says, oh, but Bitcoin and Ethereum will always be around. That's what they're now saying. Oh, but they're the ones.

Bitcoin and Ethereum will always. always be around. That's what we're getting now. Well, they may be around, but Bitcoin has gone from 64,400 to 16,200. I'm going to say that's 75%. Somewhere in the 70s, right? Ethereum has gone from, let's see, that's gone from 4,516. down to 1171, catcher my drift. And these other stocks are just getting mutilated. So let me repeat something just in case. It's just a freaking bubble.

That's all. And it's blown up. And it ain't coming back. They can bounce the Bitcoin and Ethereum. But it's going to be dead when all said and done. And there's a pretty darn good chance that it's all going to be zero. All they are is somebody paying higher than the next guy. We gave you a very weird analogy.

When many moons ago, on this show we said to you, imagine if you walked your dog and it took a crap. And somebody came up to you and said, I'll pay five bucks. Sure. And then somebody walked up to them and said, I'll pay you $20. Sure. And somebody walked up to them and I'll pay you 50. Sure. And somebody walked up to them and said, I'll pay you 100. Yeah, take it off my hands. Next person walks up from Wall Street and said, I'll pay you a thousand. Goes to investment bankers and says, bring it public. Let's trade it. That's all crypto is. The coins. That's all it is. It's crap. It could have been anything. And we have begged you, pleaded with you, to read extraordinary popular. the delusions and the madness of crowds. Go get the book. You might as well put a chapter in on crypto. So again, we don't know if they're going to bounce them. They could. But 90% of the

coins have dropped 90% of more with Moscow and zero. They came out with the Miami coin while they're doing all these conventions and thousands of people and celebrities and athletes showing up in Miami. It's down 97% from the high. Mark Cuban, very famous person. Brilliant man. His coin went to nothing overnight. How can that be? Because all these things are worthless if nobody's paying a price for them. That's all. And again, we hope you listen. The bad people are still out there trying to sell you on. I saw one person on TV. That Kathy Wood of the Arc Fund says Bitcoin's going to a million by 2030. And the Bloomberg interview

would say a freaking word. Let her off the hook. Kathy Wood couldn't do an interview with me. I would ask her, what is she smoking? And how crooked can one person be? By telling somebody, something's going to go up 61-fold in seven years. That's crooked.

That's mean. It's not nice. It's not funny. It's mean. Because if she can entice one person to believe that crap, that's too many people. So just letting you know blockfye is filing bankruptcy today, what the hell that is? And I hear this Yutz in the Bahamas from FTX. He's going to be interviewed by somebody, Sorkin, Andrew Ross Sorkin. And I'm thinking to

myself, shouldn't the first question be, where is the effing money, you scumbag? But no, Andrew Ross Sorkin's going to be, so can you tell us what's going on? How's your weekend? Was Thanksgiving good? The interviewer should be incensed at this crook. The things we're hearing, parents bought 100 million bucks of real estate with other people's money. Really? Let's interview them. Anyway, I got a lot of problems, people. You're not one of them. Today's market wrap. Brought to you by Investment-Models.com. That's Jimura back, one of the great market timers. No gray areas with the man you're either in or out of the market

with his proprietary indicators. Go check it out. Investment-mottles.com. 497 on the Dow to the downside. 62 S&P, 176 NASDAQ, 168 NASDAQ, 172 SOX, almost 300 on the transports. Advanced declines, not good, up-down volume, not good. New highs not good, new lows picked up. It was not good.

But once again, there is one sore thumb for me that has me really worried. One sore thumb. Go look at a chart of the Dow. Then go look at a chart of the NASDAQ and NASDAQ 100. You tell me, how's the risk appetite? Up next, more on that.

Whatever else, I'm Gary. This is one only investor's edge. This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet?

Terms apply. Lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details. This episode is brought to you by Spreaker. The platform responsible for a rapidly spreading condition known as podcast brain. Symptoms include buying microphones you don't need, explaining RSS feeds to confused relatives, and saying things like, sorry, I can't talk right now, I'm editing audio. If this sounds familiar, you're probably already a podcaster.

The good news is Spreaker makes the whole process simple. You record your show, upload it once, and Spreaker distributes it everywhere people listen, Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and about a dozen apps your cousin swears are the next big thing. Even better, Spreaker helps you monetize your show with ads, meaning your podcast might someday pay for, well, more microphones. Start your show today at spreeker.com. Spreaker, because if you're going to talk to yourself for an hour, you might as well publish it. This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card.

Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply, lounge access is subject to change.

See Capital One.com for details. We're listening to. America is talking. Investors edge. that the crowd is just on his feet here. He's a Cinderella boy. With Gary Colbomb. It comes highly recommended.

You're going to feel better if you talk to him. So, I feel like I need to expound on what I'm telling you. So when you have a chance, you get a one-year daily chart of the Dow, get a one-year daily chart of the S&P 500, a one-year daily chart of the NASDAQ and a one-year daily chart of the NASDAQ 100. You will see how the Dow has rallied back up to the highs of August 16th, has made a V-shaped move, got a little bit above it Friday, fell back below it today, but you can draw a V, the Dow.

and we bring that up is the Dow normally lags in bull markets lags in bare markets holds up better when we see the Dow leading a move it's actually worrisome and you add in and the NASDAQ and the NASDAQ and the NASDAQ 100 aren't even moving off their lows

it tells you risk appetite. Remember, a lot of these funds need to be fully invested. And when they're worried about markets, what they do is they lower their risk appetite. How do they do that? The most liquid, boring names in the market. And what happens is, once they start moving and outperforming, these funds, look at it and say, okay, this is the place to be for now. So Procter & Gamble, Johnson and Johnson, even in IBM. The problem with these companies, there's really not a lot of growth so they're going

eventually hit a wall. And then it's indicative of what we call parking of the money in this very liquid, boring stuff. Why? Because it's easy to get in and easy to get out versus buying into what we call higher beta stocks, stocks that trade much more than what the market does. And you know what those names are. So you go look at the Dow. Then you go look at the S&P 500. And you will see, not only did it not get back to August 16th, but it never got back to the Dow. a little high of September 13, so very much underperforming the Dow. But that's nothing,

because then you look at the NASDAQ, and you will see the NASDAQ is now not even above last month, not even near September and way below that August 16th so the money creeps out of what we call risk appetite

risk on it's technology its growth and those types there's more to growth than technology you can call throw retail

in there and some other areas. But leave no doubt. It has been technology and growth that has rolled the roost for decades. And while people have been, yay, yay, yay, yay. We've been saying, yay for the Dow, everything else lagging. And in the case of the NASDAQ and NASDAQ 100, woeful. The only thing the NASDAQ is going for it is it's, Remember that big day on November 10th, the 900 point gap in the Dow, 580 on the NASDAQ?

It's trading into that day now. You know what the day before was? Pretty much a closing low, a closing bare market low for the NASDAQ. So it hasn't even got going yet. Therein lies the worry. It's called the measuring of risk appetite, not by calling a fund manager, saying, how's your risk appetite? It's by seeing what the masses are doing in institutional fun land. And you measure them by price and what and where and how. And I must tell you, I'm not so sure

I've ever seen such a sharp divergence between the Dow strength and the NASDAQ weakness. You know, I think I have to go back to the 2000-2003 bear market. Seriously, I think I have to go back to that. And I'm not so sure that's good news. if you look at the Dow you go back and do a weekly five year chart and just put the date in

for the Dow go December 1st 2000 and then go put that weekly chart on the NASDAQ and you will see the NASDAQ woefully underperforming back then which led to even more woeful underperforming by the NASDAQ so all we're doing

is reading the tape while the Dow has gone up, 30 stocks, and there are others. Don't get me wrong. It's not just the Dow, but a lot of the lower beta board. How about Goldman Sachs in the financials? Oh, by the way, that's a Dow stock. I forgot. So stay tuned.

We may have hit the wall today. Not 100% sure. Would not be surprised if. today, a wall was hit. And of course, rhyme in a reason sometimes. First and foremost, central bankers. They don't shut up. There's a guy named Bullard, who is the mouthpiece for Powell was out today. He might as well have said, we hope the Dow drops 5,000 points. No, really. No, really. the things out of his mouth coast to coast opposite of what he was saying a year and a half ago. Just remember, these are all easy money dults.

They don't want to raise rates. They don't want to stop printing money. They want to increase printing money and they want to go rate zero percent. But they can't because the inflation they created that they get no blame from for because they're not politicians. It's only the politicians that get the blame, not the central bank. Teflon, but they're the cause. We told you that before it even happened. We think that added some fuel to the fire today.

Though, we think the market was probably going to head down anyhow. And we haven't scanned yet. We're not done yet. We'll have a better idea tonight and a couple days ahead. But there is a chance hit a wall today in the things that were behaving better. Just remember, hasn't been the NASDA. at all. On another note, Apple, down another almost four bucks today. Really underperforming now. There's a story that there's going to be much less iPhones being made in China because of all the strife in China.

You can go read about Foxcon and you'll understand why. That was of no help today. And yet we can talk cause and effect from now to new years. What matters most is price and pattern. And today will not look good on a resume. Wish we had better news. Pretty much all read. Interesting enough, the Chinese stocks are up today. Beats the heck out of me, why.

I don't know if you've been looking at video, what's going on there. I mean, they're locking people up. If there's one person with COVID in an apartment complex, a huge one, They're locking everybody up. And they're spraying toxic chemicals over the apartment. And from a drone, they have a loudspeaker saying, close your windows. I'm serious. This is what's going on there.

It's 2022 and this is what's going on. And the people have had enough. Up next, this, that, and the other thing and whatever else. This one only investor's edge. This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide.

The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply. Lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details. This episode is brought to you by Spreaker. The platform responsible for a rapidly spreading condition known as podcast brain. Symptoms include buying microphones you don't need, explaining RSS feeds to confused relatives,

and saying things like, sorry, I can't talk right now, I'm editing audio. If this sounds familiar, you're probably already a podcaster. The good news is Sprinker makes the whole process simple. You record your show, upload it once, and Sprinker distributes it everywhere people listen, Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and about a dozen apps your cousin's swears are the next big thing. Even better, Spreaker helps you monetize your show with ads, meaning your podcast might someday pay for, well, more microphones. Start your show today at spreeker.com. Spreaker, because if you're going to talk to yourself for an hour, you might as well publish it. This message is brought to you

by the Capital One Venture X card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply, lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details.

You're listening to. What are we waiting for? Well, what are you waiting for? One, two, ready, go. Action! In the Bester's Edge. With Gary Colbaugh. And welcome once again to Investors Edge.

Here's some other things I'm watching. Just so you know this week, there is about 10, 12, 14 of these completely bombed out, destroyed software stocks that have dropped big time in the last year reporting this week. remember one of the rules of bare markets past leaders on average nobody wants to believe this we'll drop 70% or more when I was first told this I didn't believe it and then I started looking at it and I'm like oh my god and now here we have this other

bare market that we've been in and the past leaders were in technology right Facebook down 69.2 percent. Netflix 58 was down 74. You catch on my drift? Oktah, octa, 80%. This was a big leader. And I can sit here for an hour or two going through names. PayPal, 60%. Square, 72%. Why they changed their name from square to block is beyond me. So it happened again. One of the big rules. of bare markets rare did its ugly head again and it really didn't have much of bias at all nVIDia 53% it was at 68% at the lows AMD 55% was down 68% at the lows and I can go on and on and on

Snapchat down 82%. That was at New Yearly High September of 21. Match.com, 67%. And you know what your job is? Never forget this. Never forget this. It's been brutal. And amazingly, if there was only the NASDAQ and NASDAQ 100,

all I'd be saying is, man, this market's in trouble. So you know what we do now is we gauge those things that have rallied up some. If they top them out, look out. Because the next question would come to mind. If they couldn't rally the NASDAQ and NASDAQ 100, while they V-shaped the Dow up to the August highs, which by the way is still below the all-time highs by a decent amount,

what if the rest of the market comes in? are they going to break the NASDAQ and NASDAQ 100 below the October-November lows? My answer is normally, typically, usually, yupp. If they did break those lows, if, it's an if, look out, look out. We'll alert you. We'll let you know. but we can safely tell you today's action does not look good on a resume

wish we had better news oils we're flummoxed on them there's a decent amount of oils within 5% of their yearly highs while oil prices are way down we think something's got to give there too and that would call into question

demand We really haven't talked to economy today, but we do have that worry. Not enough talk is being made about what we're talking about. Credit card usage skyrocketing. Savings rates plunging. That's worrisome. The good news is inflation's better. It's coming down normally.

A lot of things have cratered too. yields are back down a little bit, still elevated, 3.7, but do you know the one-year yields at 4.7? The two-year yields at 4.4 in change? That's what is known as an inverted yield curve. Typically, normally, usually happens in advance of economic trouble. So stay tuned. We've been on top of this like nobody else. Like nobody else. I'm going to do our best to stay on top of it. Today's worrisome.

It's only one day. But in the big scheme of things, the action in the NASDAQ and NASDAQ 100 is scaring the willies out of me. Because if it gets taken down, we'll be talking about the 40s. keep it very low beta, very liquid, very boring, otherwise potential serious penalties will be paid. And as we have stated to you in bare markets, they have no bias.

Tomorrow will be another day. We'll hope for a better day. You'll have a great evening drive carefully. When you get home, do like we do. It's quite simple. make sure you hug your family, you hug your children, they will feel better, you will feel better, I promise. Tomorrow, TV, not sure just yet, but guess we will be tomorrow, same time, this show,

and you don't want to miss a minute. Have a great one, everybody. Always honored by your presence. Take care. Bye-bye. This has been Investor's Edge with Gary Cult Bomb on BizTalk. To listen to past episodes or to get in contact with Gary, go to Gary. Gary K.com. That's Gary K.com.

This message is brought to you by the Capital One VentureX card. VentureX offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet, terms apply, lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details.