Investor's Edge with Gary Kaltbaum - The Washout [11.07.2025]

Episode Date: November 7, 2025

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That's Tommyjohn.com, code comfort. Tommy John. Comfort perfected. Investor's Edge with Gary Coltbaum. Straight talk about you and your money. Now from the BizTalk Studios, here is Gary Cultbaum. And welcome once again to Investors Edge. I'm Gary Colpom, I'm your host. A thanks of being with us today.

Glad you're here, ladies and gentlemen. Happy that you are listening. It's Friday. It's November 7th. It's 2025. Hope you are going to have a great week. weekend. They are going to open the government this weekend. I'm pretty darn sure. They cannot let it go into next week. And I'm pretty darn sure the corrupt in D.C. traded on that today. And I'll explain that in a minute. And it is not joyful that I even have to say that, but they have proven themselves throughout the years to front run a lot of the news. But more importantly, the term we're going to use today is, is the washout.

Now, as you know, we try to tell you, there's the short term, there's the intermediate term, there's the long term, there's the short term trends, the intermediate term trends, the long term trends. And of course, we break it up into differing areas. And today, the washout will explain. But first, this is serious talk on you, everything that affects you, will do the markets, the economy, your job, your industry,

Washington, D.C., shutdowns, tariffs, corruptions, and scams and shams. And if you do not get this radio show in your city, we'll post it at garyk.com. We'll post on our X-feed if you don't follow us. And actually should. If you'd like to email us, just be nice. We'll also post it, by the way, at the YouTube channel of BizTV and other podcast apps. So in case you don't know the Government's been shut. And this is my prediction. It's just my prediction. They'll come to something this weekend.

That's all. They'll come to something this weekend. Why? They're going to kill the economy if they don't. What do you mean they're going to kill the economy? Well, if they shut down 10% of the flights, that affects commerce. it affects people, it affects hotels, it affects airports, it affects business, for starters.

And also today, we had a washout, big selling throughout the day and a big finish. The numbers weren't big, but the movement today was big. Now, we're going to give you two thoughts on that and take you into next week. The first thought is, the scum in D.C. know that they're going to do something and they trade it on it. Gary, come on. Ladies and gentlemen, just so you know, there are actual people online that keep a run of all the trades done. Just so you know, they all have to report everything they do after they do it. They don't even, they have no shame.

You have people that are on the commission that, overseas pharmaceuticals and will trade on pharmaceutical companies and then there's legislation two weeks later that benefited their trade. The same with the defense industry and all that. They're not ashamed. Nancy Pelosi has made it fun of as the greatest hedge fund ever with her trading throughout the years. Not kidding. And it's all posted. And we take no joy in saying it, But I'm basing the deal is done on opening the government based on the market. But there's another side. So, ladies and gentlemen, without getting too technical.

And eventually we're going to be putting this on the web, show charts. There is an area on the market on each stock, each sector, each country, each commodity. that we have harped on forever to you. It's a place where markets get defended in bullish phases. It's just a place. And it is a place where institutions recognize defending the market. And how do we know this? Well, we've studied every bull market in history.

We have thousands, thousands of sheets of people, that we printed out here. Here's some noise. That's here that. That's one I'm going to show the peeps tonight. It's from you ready for this? 2014 and very simply without getting too technical when you do a chart of a stock you plot the date and price. The dates move to the left to the right. The price moves up and down. And in bull markets, price rides up and ascending 50-day moving average now what the hell is a 50-day moving average

all it is is price it is the last 50 days the add up divide by 50 and you get a smoothed out line that's all it is and it is well known that is the point the huge point that matters most phases or in phases where they're not they're getting less than bullish and we're pulling back into them that's where the place where the institutions stand up and hold today the S&P 500 undercut the 50-day moving average at 6670 hit a low of 6631 but amazingly closed up to that 6728 finishing above, the NASDAQ today got just below the 22664, hit 22563, finished at 23,004, which means, get this, one time today, the NASDAQ that was 22563, was down 4, 4,000, 400 let me get this right

490 and finished only down 49 points today and of course ramped into the close which is what usually happens in the market 22563

to 23004 in one day the low was put in around noon 437 441 and 49 490 only 49 the doubt today at one time today hit 46495 closed at 46 98 Rallied up 492 points. It finished up 74. Was down over 400 early. The S&P 500 finished up 8 on the day. It hit 6631, 97 points lower. It was down 89 at one time today. That's a washout. Now, one little ingredient that I'm not seeing so much of big volume. When you see humongous volume on a washout day, that really washes out sellers. We'll see what happens next week.

We believe that's it. That's all that happened today. And it's mui importante, because I have news for you. they were smacking the crap out of things early today. And what was so important today? What was so important? And what did the market follow? The number one stock in the S&P 500,

the number one influence is Nvidia at 7.59%. Now let me explain that to you. Equal weighting in the S&P 500 should be two-tenths of 1%. Invidia is 38 times importance of what should be the average stock in the S&P. Got me? Nvidia today hit a low, get this, 17891, closed at 18815. That is a gargantuan move for a mega cap. Up next.

We'll continue along these lines. It's important. This is the one-only Investor's Edge. Hi, I'm Gary Kalbaum, hosted a nationally syndicated radio show Investors Edge. We're not just handsome radio people. We manage investors' money for a living, specializing in fee-based discretionary money management. No big commissions, just a fee on the assets that's managed.

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Lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details. This episode is brought to you by Sprecker. The platform responsible for a rapidly spreading condition known as podcast brain. Symptoms include buying microphones you don't need, explaining RSS feeds to confused relatives, and saying things like, sorry, I can't talk right now, I'm editing audio. If this sounds familiar, you're probably already a podcaster.

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Hey, this promises to be fun. Investors Edge. The last bastion of quality programming. With Gary Coltbaum. It doesn't get better than this. So, the number one influence in the S&P 500, reversed. What do you think follows? Oh, that's right, other things.

And Nvidia. and the NASDAQ 100 is 13.89% of the NASDAQ 100. A massive reverse from breaking below the 50-day moving average. And by the way, an awful week for it. By the way, on the week, Nvidia finished down 7%. It's a rough week. But it was much worse. Wash out.

but it wasn't just Nvidia. What do I always feel like the most important financial stock is? You would think it's JP Morgan, but for me it's Goldman Sacks. Because it's got this high beta to it.

It really moves and it's also the highest price stock in the Dow. Goldman Sachs finished down a buck and a quarter today. Hit a low of 760-280. Close at 786.30. It rallied back up $23.50, which by the way, is approximately $150, 160 Dow points. And you know where it finished?

Back above the 50-day moving average. And if Goldman Sachs does that, J.P. Morgan does that. City Group breaks below the 50-day finished. You get my point. So you get this washout today. and that's what we're calling it, which what does it normally mean? Listen carefully. It normally means a low.

A low. That's what it means. Which would be quite amazing because we only dropped for 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7 trading days. Does it mean we're off to the races? I can't go there. But it was some great defense. by the institutions. I have yet to do my scans,

but I know what I see. A washout. For now. And we'll see what comes next. A reprieve. A washout. And some very important growth names. We're down huge early.

Huge. A bunch finished up. I don't need to go through all those names, but you understand what I'm talking about. Because if NVIDIA was down nine and finishes up, well, what do you think the rest did? That led the charge. Was there any news? I didn't see anything. It's the market got defended after some vicious selling, should lead to some upside testing.

We'll take it day by day, but something else happened today. I'm guessing. What have we been complaining about? And rightfully so. What have we been telling you to avoid? And rightfully so. A whole swath of the market. We call it our stuff page.

Lower beta, value type, stuff. consumer staples, restaurants, insurance, economically sensitive stuff that is not artificial intelligence, a lot of retail. We think they may have put in a load today. While this other washout was going on, in fact, while the market was sinking like a stone early, sinking like a stone, the stuff screen was mostly green. But in the end turned very green. Transport's up 252. Was up all day.

Insurance, which has been so weak, bounced. Wouldn't call in a new bull market, but bounced. Restaurants were even up. The consumer staples that have been obliterated. Up nicely. The semiconductors, the all-important socks. You ready for this? It's 6688 today.

closed at 6947 6688 closed at 6947 259 points off the lows and you still finish down 71 it was down 330 juicy points at one time today

wash out there you have it If we get an opening of the government, we will know the crooks were active. If we don't, we will just know that it got defended big time. As I'm looking at some, you ready for some moves? This is all in one day, by the way. Let me even take that back. This is all in four hours.

Symbol CRDO hits 146, closes at 163, and is up three bucks in the aftermarket. Oh, and Nvidia is up a buck in the aftermarket. Oh, and the QQQ, which closed at 609-74, is up a buck in the aftermarket. Have they announced anything yet? I don't see it. But even in the aftermarket, it continues. The Russell 2000 today hit a low of 2380, closed at 2432. 52 points, more than 2%. In four hours, wash out.

And there you have it. Odds favor, we will get some upside testing from here. Absent bad news. And that's your story. A big washout. Bitcoin was even up today, and that's been very weak. I don't give that much, whatever. We'll let you decide on that.

You had some blowups today, as usual, on earnings. You had some really good reactions on earnings. Expedia, great reaction. Great reaction. Sandisk. Monster numbers, great reaction. How about Symbol Frog? J. Frog.

Great reaction. We put all those great reactions in one area. And we pay attention to them. Usually something good going on. Advanced declines today at one time today. 10 to 30 on the NASDAQ finished up 2420. Up next. More on the markets.

And whatever else comes to mind. I'm Gary. This is the one only investor's edge. It's no use putting it off. The best time for an underwear refresh is now. Tommy John underwear is designed for a perfect fit that stays put all day. Their zero-chafe thanks to four times more stretch than competing brands. And their innovative horizontal quick-draw fly is a game changer.

With over 30 million pairs sold, there are thousands of men out there more comfortable than you. Don't settle for less. Go to Tommyjohn.com today for 25% off your first order with Code Comfort. That's Tommyjohn.com code comfort. Tommy John. Comfort perfected. This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect,

like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply, lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details. This episode is brought to you by Spreaker.

The platform responsible for a rapidly spreading condition known as podcast brain. Symptoms include buying microphones you don't need, explaining RSS feeds to confuse. used relatives, and saying things like, sorry, I can't talk right now, I'm editing audio. If this sounds familiar, you're probably already a podcaster. The good news is Spreaker makes the whole process simple. You record your show, upload it once, and Spreaker distributes it everywhere people listen. Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and about a dozen apps your cousin swears are the next big thing.

Even better, Spreaker helps you monetize your show with ads, meaning your podcast might someday pay for, well, more microphones. Start your show today at spreeker.com. Spreaker, because if you're going to talk to yourself for an hour, you might as well publish it. We're listening to. America is talking. Investors Edge. He's got to be pleased with that.

The crowd is just on his feet here. He's a Cinderella boy. With Gary Colbomb. It comes highly recommended. You're going to feel better if you talk to him. And what once again to Investors Edge. I hope that explains it. A washout.

is where market's selling off, selling off, selling off, selling off, selling off, and then the final sellers, turn it back up. And where did they deny the sellers? In and around the all-important 50-day moving average on the important names like Nvidia Goldman Sachs, which gave emperous, and by the way, Nvidia had some volume, which gave impetus to other things. if you would have called me up at 1130 today, I would say, boy, oh boy, I would have said they better start defending this sucker. At about 2 p.m. we started writing our peeps at 1.30 that we thought something may be up. And maybe, just maybe, we'll get one of those days. I'm looking at what time I put that out. Actually, 1230. actually 1117 if we don't get decent reversal

today I already started talking reversals at 1117 and then at 1230 we wrote don't know if one noticed but a lot now in around the 50 day in the past minutes market

that was really gagging stopped and bounce could be at a moment hmm wasn't easy and then we started writing up at 109 GS rapidly

deteriorates below the 50 day and right back up to the 50 day. Nvidia does the same. And then we wrote Bitcoin bouncing, meaningful with a question mark. Well, it was. And that was today. And even in the aftermarket, little juice. Very good washout. Which will take us into next week.

And beats the heck out of us what happens next week. But that was good. And we've studied washouts. I'm interested to see the final numbers on volume. I see NASDAQ pretty good. I'm not seeing it in the S&P. And then again, the broad market. Had a much better day today by the close.

Gold was up today. Gold miners were up. I'm still in that camp. Need some time and price here. But getting closer. I do believe the gold bull market. market is not over, which means silver also. But a word to the wise, when that 50 day gets ultimately taken out. Good night. But we got defended again. We'll keep your breast of the

situation next week. By the way, the 50 day got defended on the 10th and the 14th of October. August 1st, and that's the Dow. In the S&P, it didn't get close on August 1st, but very close on the 10th and the 14th of October. The NASDAQ got very close on September 2nd. So very good hold, we'll take it, and it'll get my juices flowing again. Because I've been taking a step back, not wanting to touch a thing for good reason. Because we write down what we like and anything I would have bought would have gotten smoked. We have our list going into next week of strength.

Best names, worst names. By the way, the strongest name in the market is Sandisk. SNDK. It's in the trees. And you know what happened here? They reported earnings. They were down 33% year over year. They reported guidance going forward, 200% earnings growth.

And that's what the market's been reacting to and new. Stunning performance. It was up 32 bucks today. At one time today when the market was getting hit, then this is off of earnings was down two bucks. And then the market lifted off the lows. And boy, did it lead up. good stuff.

Now, valuations, still in the trees. Froth and speculation, bounce today by the end of the day. I guess people don't learn their lesson. Even though froth and speculation has dropped 50 to 70% as of recent, be careful. What we mean by that, as usual, you want to buy companies with no sales?

You better not be in them during a bare market. Simple as that. You will crash. You will be crushed. And there's a lot of them. They bounce today. But only after deep drops, something like an OKLO hit 97 bucks today,

closed at 112. It was 193 four weeks ago. That's what we mean by crumbling, washout day. An important day. We never usually qualify a day as a big deal. Today, very much potential to be a big, big deal. Very much so.

And that's our story. And this is whether or not government opens or not. But our bet is that they have no choice. the scum in D.C. needs to. And boy, at this point, they're just plain scum. On this one, it's on the Democrats. But I use the Republicans as scum also because, you know, they let us down. President Trump and his people lied.

Two trillion dollar deficits. Tariffs. There was a random act of journalism with the president. Somebody specifically asked, specifically asked about tariffs being a tax. And that's what the Supreme Court has been saying. If tariffs are a tax. And you know the president's been saying that the money's been coming in here. Well, the question was, how do you say that the money has been coming into the country

if it's a tax on the country. You know what his answer was? Convaluted as can be. Well, they charge us. I'm going to throw up. I'm so tired of politicians BSing us and lying to us. Remember, we're not MAGA. We're not in his camp, their camp, no camp. We just want good policy. We don't care who does it. If a Democrat comes out with good policy, I will compliment them. Unfortunately, they come out with nothing. If a Republican comes out with good policy, we complement it. We have profusely complimented the president on the border. Israel, fighting a crime, deportation, but then they've gone overboard and we're not happy about the way they're doing it now. But I think they're in the midst of fixing it.

we're against the tariffs they make no sense to say you are into cutting taxes yet you raise taxes and then you're proud of it by announcing oh we brought in this amount of money sheer insanity if I had the presidency

I tell him but I don't and unfortunately anybody who disagrees on anything is the enemy such as life we only care about the furthering of this country. We want good things. Up next.

Taking you into the weekend. This is the one only investor's edge. It's no use putting it off. The best time for an underwear refresh is now. Tommy John underwear is designed for a perfect fit that stays put all day. Their zero-chafe thanks to four times more stretch than competing brands and their innovative horizontal quick draw fly is a game changer. With over 30 million pairs sold, there are thousands of men out there more comfortable than you.

Don't settle for less. Go to Tommyjohn.com today for 25% off your first order with Code Comfort. That's Tommyjohn.com code comfort. Tommy John. Comfort perfected. This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit. for less than you expect.

Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply, lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details. This episode is brought to you by Spreker.

The platform responsible for a rapidly spreading condition known as podcast brain. Symptoms include buying microphones you don't need. explaining RSS feeds to confused relatives, and saying things like, Sorry, I can't talk right now, I'm editing audio. If this sounds familiar, you're probably already a podcaster. The good news is Spreaker makes the whole process simple. You record your show, upload it once, and Spreaker distributes it everywhere people listen, Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and about a dozen apps your cousin swears are the next big thing.

Even better, Spreaker helps you monetize your show with ads, meaning your podcast might someday pay for, well, more my podcast. microphones. Start your show today at spreeker.com. Spreaker, because if you're going to talk to yourself for an hour, you might as well publish it. You're listening to. What are we waiting for? Well, what are you waiting for? One, two, ready, go. Investers Edge with Gary Culper. And welcome once again to Investor's Edge. Don't you love When you call some company or business

And It's a horrible experience Where you speak to a robot And then they say Please hold the line And do a survey Are they just stupid Yeah, let's do a survey

That whole thing sucked Let's do a survey I'm not going to say what airline and the fact that matter is I don't I very rarely complain about airlines that I've been on because if you get there safe that's what counts but the experience sometimes I had a terrible experience last week flying and part of it was weather and staffing and understandable and guess what they got us home safe so bless them but it was terrible and getting people on the line was terrible. And how they handled their business was terrible. And then we'll stay on the line for a survey, please. And what do they think I'm going to say?

And of course, I didn't do that. I got off the line. And a survey. Anyway, that was that. What can I tell you? I'm flying this week, this coming week. if we're not open, boy, who the hell knows. In the news, and let me just push back on the president.

He said jobs are sizzling. No jobs are terrible. Job market is terrible. I saw some Trump favorite announce good numbers of 40,000 ADP. No, that sucks. Just letting you know. also consumer sentiment is near the lowest ever true do i blame the president for that no but he's partially to blame he's the head honcho top dog big cheese there's more and more there's a lot that meets the eye i think it's a

combination of i think a i's taken away jobs there's no doubt my mind a i is taken away jobs there's no doubt my mind a i is taken away jobs. And now the shutdown, I think it's starting to affect. But where else does he get blamed? He said yesterday, another farce. Prices at supermarkets are going down. He said, no, they're not. In fact, all they do is go up.

And I'm pretty sure the bags of potato chips got even smaller in the last month. Don't quote me on that. But they sure feel smaller, at least less. chips in there. So he'd better be careful. Because if you say that and it's not true, you know how President Trump won his election? Because Biden was saying that. And do I blame the president for prices at the supermarket? Go, hell no. I don't blame him for that. It could be a bad orange juice crop. Who knows? Very tough to get prices down once they get going. But oil prices have been.

been stable. Good. Yields have been stable. Good. A lot of calls for recession from people. Ain't happening if the market doesn't crack. Just let you know. Every recession was preceded with a big drop in the market. Now, I'm not talking about what just happened in the last six days. Just let you know. Just want you to keep that in mind. But there is a big issue in the job market. now and I hope you listen to me in the last few years of being indispensable at your company if you do not own it. There is no doubt in my mind we are heading for a new change in the job structure. Companies are looking for less people, more technology, and the advent of AI is going to help. And when I see the cuts, we are seeing. We are seeing.

in some of these companies? Oh yeah. When I'm seeing ADP and paychecks, crashing stocks at yearly lows, the payroll companies? Meaningful. Got a lot of email on me saying I'm going to think about training for the marathon.

I got one guy scaring me straight, but I got a bunch of people email me, tell me they've done it, and I'm going to look into it. We'll see. You know what I did last night? I jogged. for a little bit.

Man, oh, man. I got a lot of work to do. But I'm boldened. I got an email from an 81-year-old that's been doing the marathon for 40 years. It looks great. I don't like driving 26 miles. And if you've never been to a marathon, you should check it.

I loved it. 96th and 1st Avenue, New York Marathon, I could not believe how fast these people were running. Holy crap. The best of them, it was like a sprint, and they sprint all the way. I don't know how they do it. I was on my inclined trainer this morning going three miles an hour, and I thought that was fast. What, that would take me nine hours to do the marathon. Oh, well. All right, back on point. Very good washout today. Very good washout. and suspect that'll lead to upside testing into next week.

And let's hope a good low is in, and we get a good end of the year. With the broad market getting much better at the end of the day, not out of the question, coming from some nasty to the downside. You all have a great weekend, drive carefully. When you get home, do like we do, quite simple. Make sure you hug your family. Make sure you hug your children. They will feel better.

You will feel better. I promise they will be well. What a day. Have a great weekend. Good night. This has been Investor's Edge with Gary Cult Bomb on BizTalk. To listen to past episodes or to get in contact with Gary, go to GaryK.com. That's GaryK.com. Guys, it's no use putting it off. The best time for an underwear refresh is now. Tommy John underwear is designed for a perfect fit that stays put all day. There's zero-chafe thanks to four times more stretch than competing brands and their innovative horizontal quick draw fly is a game changer. With over 30 million pairs sold, there are thousands of men out there more comfortable than you.

Don't settle for less. Go to Tommyjohn.com today for 25% off your first order with Code Comfort. That's Tommyjohn.com code comfort. Tommy John. Comfort perfected. This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect. Like a $300 annual Capital One, travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply, lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details.