Investor's Edge with Gary Kaltbaum - THE WEEK IN REVIEW [05.15.2026]

Episode Date: May 15, 2026

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Investor's Edge with Gary Coltbaum. Straight talk about you and your money. Now from the BizTalk Studios, here is Gary Cultbaum. And welcome once again to Investors Edge. I'm Gary Coltbaum, your host day. Thanks for being with us today. Glad you're here, ladies and gentlemen. Happy that you are listening.

It is Friday the 15th, 2006. We're in May. Hope you having a good day. Hope you have a good weekend. A lot to discuss today. Hope you're listening on a few avenues today. The markets, the economy, your job, your industry, suspect activity out of Washington, D.C.,

from the top to the bottom, and whatever else. And when we do Washington, D.C., we have to say up front, we take no joy. You'll see why. This is Investors' Edge. As we said, serious talk on everything that affects you. We'll do the markets, the economy, your job, your industry, them too. And if you don't get this radio show in your city, we'll post it at garyk.com.

We'll also post it on our X feed. If you don't follow us on X, you should. If you'd like to email us, just be nice. Respectful. I, somebody, I think one of the main anchors from CNB, BC posted that they thought J. Powell did a wonderful job and save the economy. I took that on. And I started out by saying, that's a load. And I apologize because I shouldn't say that's a load. But I disagreed emphatically. You know what I think. We'll discuss a little bit of that today.

whatever else. Thanks for your emails. Everybody's been very nice. We'll be nice back. So there are certain things that we watch always of import. Number one, as you know, we scan a craplode of stocks and sectors every day. But we also watch very closely what we call intermarket work. What is that? Well, if oil prices go up, probably airlines, cruise lines, and the like, don't do well. If oil prices come down, they do better. If, well, you get the point. If a state taxes the hell out of their wealthy, a state that treats their wealthy well will get a lot of those people. currently you have states that are raising

New York wants to raise property taxes on the wealthy and now it's down to a million, at least that's the proposal, while here in Florida, the governor is trying to get through no property taxes. Cause and effect. And to our eyes, the most important cause and effect

is the direction and the movement in interest rates and energy prices. Energy prices up into the war were cooperating very well. In fact, I was saying probably two or three times a week here, boy, they're so stable. And we would say the same thing for yields all the time. Well, the war came. And unfortunately, oil prices. Well, let's see what I got for you today. The July Brent crude, 109, light sweet crude 101.

much higher than expected. Unfortunately, the president miscalculated. When he comes out and says, oh, we expected 200, he's lying, he's making it up. He's embellishing. But that doesn't matter if he is or not. What we have to deal with is the facts at hand. And oil prices are way up. And you know this every time you fill up your gas tank.

You know this because watch what happens if it stays this way. You will see fewer people at restaurants, retail. And as you know, some of the worst acting stocks are restaurants and retail. Cause and effect. And we're not going to go back and forth on the war here, whether it was right or wrong. The people in the president's purview are saying, and the president is saying, well, what would you rather have, being nuclear bombed or higher oil prices? We'll let you all decide on all that, whether true or not, we have told you all as intelligence, told them they weren't even close.

He also told us things were obliterated. And then right before the war, they said he had two weeks, so we don't know what to believe. But that's okay. We're dealing with facts here. Oil prices have skyrocketed. And the longer they stay up, not good. But there's now another component, and that is yields.

whenever I'm on TV and I'm asked and asked often about what do I think about the Fed and all that, I always answer back, just watch yields. If they're stable, if they're going lower, terrific, if they go higher in a meaningful fashion, that's going to be bad news. Well, interesting enough, and by no coincidence, listen to me carefully. Oil prices started moving up. The date was March 2nd. On March 2nd, the 10-year yield was right around 4%. It's now 4.6% and is at a year high.

The 30-year yield was at 4-7. It's over 5-1 now. and is pretty much at a 20-year high. Now, what does this mean to you? It's a headwind. Number one, your mortgage rates, if you're looking to buy a home, are going higher. And of course, that will not help a housing market that's already on its back to a decent extent. What else?

it's called the cost of capital. The cost to get loans go higher. That goes throughout the economy. Headwind. The two most important parts of the equation is the cost of capital and the cost of energy and both are going north on I-95 right now and not stopping. Today, the 10-year yield. The 10-year yield almost hit 4.6, close at 4.59. That is bad news. And I say it's bad news because it looks higher. And why else is it bad news? All the talk of our central bank lowering rates.

They can't lower rates. Now, what have I always taught you and told you about what a central bank should do? I always taught you and told you central banks don't have to do too much. But unfortunately, this Jay Powell is an egomaniac and thought he can get away with anything. And he created a lot of distortions. Unfortunately, all the central bank has to do, is stay in line with the bond market. That knows most.

And all I can tell you are central banks at 3.5% right now, but the 10-year yield is 4-6 and the 30 is a 513. They're now not so in line. The only way to get in line is to raise rates. And you know who's president, and you know who doesn't like that.

Up next, we'll go through that. And much more. This is the one only Investor's Edge. Hi, I'm Gary Kalbaum, hosted a nationally syndicated radio show Investors Edge. We're not just handsome radio people. We manage investors' money for a living, specializing in fee-based discretionary money management. No big commissions, just a fee on the assets that's managed.

We also provide a full range of personalized services, including retirement planning, fixed income, and educational needs, all to assist you in achieving your financial goals. Understanding not all individuals have the same needs, we'll carefully evaluate your personal goals to determine a proper investment strategy. If your current approach to investing is not getting you to where you would like to be, call us to make an appointment for a complementary portfolio review. The number to call is 888-4-22-55-9. That's 8-8-8-4-2-5-9. That's 8-88-4-2-2-5-5-9. Investment Advisory Services offered through call-bomb capital management. It's time to switch on the integrator units and get the brain cells working.

You're listening to. Hey, this promises to be fun. Investors Edge. The last bastion of quality products. Programming with Gary Coltbaum. It doesn't get better than this. So, you have a president that has been cursing out Jay Powell all the time, calling him every name in the book because Jay Powell didn't keep lowering rates, even though that's all he did in the last year until the last couple, two, three meetings where he thought he was. fine and he was the president does not know what the hell he's talking about and has no

understanding of monetary policy meaning you better be in line with the markets and if you go too far you're going to create distortions and easy money is not always the answer which has me go into the next party equation he just nominated and he is now the central bank head this guy named Kevin Warsh that has a history of not being easy money, not raising, not lowering rates. So how to hell did he get the job? Did he promise the president? Don't worry. I got you back.

Well, the problem is if he starts lowering rates now while the market is screaming inflation, brought to you by tariffs and a war. Or he'll only make it worse if he lowers rates. Just remember, let's harken back. We went into COVID. Jay Powell took rates down to zero, the short-term rates, went to zero immediately. And then he printed to $9 trillion,

$9 trillion, and bought up the whole freaking bond market, which took the 10-year yield down under a half percent, which enabled 3% and less mortgages, which had people refinance, can't blame them, and new houses, people buying houses get these low mortgages, which at that point nobody wants to sell anymore. Why would I sell a 3% mortgage? Because interest rates started backing up because he created inflation.

And then he had to play catch up to it. So we ended up calling here the 3-7. Who the hell is going to sell 3% mortgages to buy a 7? And that's how the housing market went straight up in price, where nobody can afford it. But there's always an end game. It's called the affordability factor. And now we got massive inventory. And prices aren't collapsing, but they're normalizing in a interesting way.

And why we don't think it's going to be 08 again, and we predicted 08, we still think there can be more problems. And now interest rates are going even higher. While the president says we're in a golden age and we are the hottest thing. going and we're not and unfortunately has nothing but yes men around him he needs me i'd explain without a bias but he wouldn't listen to me so we're in a little bit of what i would call the soup and today the Dow was down 530 NASDAQ 410 NASDAQ 100 4 Russell 2000, 2.5%. Semis had a bad day. Now you're saying, oh, well, we just had a profit taken, had a good move up. There's only two issues, though. Oil's going higher and yields are

going higher, and that must be watched. So very rough day. And I'm not. I'm not. I'm not. I'm not hearing anything good coming out of China when it has to do with Iran, not hearing anything good. In fact, after the president left, China came out and said something, not using the words, we're putting them in his place, but having to do with, hey, Iran gets to be Iran. we're not going to get in their way. That's what came out. So we'll see how it plays out. Was it a distribution day with volume today? I'm going to guess yes.

I don't have my final numbers. But even if it didn't, price was icky today. Very icky. Cost of energy. Cost of capital. there are already, you know, I don't know if you know this, but I do Fox Weather Channel every other week. I don't do the weather, but like tomorrow I'm going to be talking about four in 10 Americans in a poll. And you know, I'm not a big believer in polls.

But they did a poll and it was widespread, no politics. Four and ten Americans will not be taking a single trip this summer. because they said affordability. Others saying they're still paying off debt. Others saying we're working to save money. That is the outcome or potential outcome of what we're seeing in oil prices and now yields and the intangible confidence. So just letting you know, we're not here to harsh your buzz.

We're here to really speak straight to you at all times with no bias. When we talk, D.C., we can't stand any of them. So we let loose on all of them. When they do right, we'll compliment the hell out of them. Like, I have to tell you, I think the president handled the Taiwan situation perfectly coming out of China. and you know what that is, say nothing. China's been kind of quietly threatening to overtake Taiwan for a couple of decades

and they don't. They say it's theirs, but they don't do anything and we'll leave it at that. So the president got that right big time. Well done, but other things going on. And again, the cost of capital.

Capital, the cost of energy. Two very important parts of the equation. If not the two important parts of the equation. Up next, what else we got for you today? On Investor's Edge. We're listening to. America is talking. Investors Edge.

He's got to be pleased with that. The crowd is just on its feet here. He's a Cinderella boy. With Gary Coltbaum. It comes highly recommended. You're going to feel better if you talk to. And what once again, two investors' edge? You know, I got dozens of emails from men thanking me for bringing up, taking the PSA test.

I got many of you to go do it. When you were of a certain age, absolutely. Next up is the big colonoscopy. I can't wait. no thank you anyway take care of yourselves health is everything

it is true it does not matter who you are you can be the wealthiest man on earth you don't have your health doesn't matter we've always tried to impress upon our sons about drinking and drugs

and things like that and keeping yourself in shape doing the same for you. And of course, you get to decide. Advanced declines today were about as bad as can be. Up down volume is not good. Get this. More new yearly lows than new yearly highs on the New York and NASDAQ,

which is quite amazing. Quite amazing. Today, a little flip-flop, software stocks. actually pretty damn good. Crouch strike has done a big U shape from the lows to the highs and into new high ground. It was up another 12 bucks today. Microsoft was up 11 bucks today. That's a lot weaker, of course, but very good day.

Adobe, a stock that has been absolutely destroyed in the software realm, that was up 11 bucks today. So software with the Dow down over 500 and the NASDAQ, down 400, software had a pretty darn good day. Would have been a lot worse if software was poor. Even the weakest software stocks were green today. What wasn't green was most everything else. Of course, oils were green today with oil prices, but they're not very bullish. Some defensive issues, insurance is somewhat defensive, green.

but you know it's getting hammered again, even more. When you have a chance this weekend, go look at ITB. It is the U.S. Home Construction Exchange Trated Fund, a new yearly low. Go look at the XHB. This is the home builders, not at new yearly lows, but pretty damn close. And anything housing related, Home Depot is at a new yearly low again. Lowe's is close. Restoration hardware is right there.

William Sonoma, right there. How about the Sherwin Williams in the Dow? New Yearly Low. Sherwin. How about Whirlpool? New Yearly Low. So we have been telling you for a while, stay away from everything housing and housing related,

and it is just worsening why? number one, Powell, number two, interest rates. Just remember, all these distortions you are seeing in housing is an outcome of Powell injecting himself too much. And by the way, it was okay for him to do some things. We're in COVID. E's monetary policy, sure. But printed $9 trillion, take the 10 year down to a half percent.

And by the way, do not forget the other part of that equation. Screwed every saver. Your money markets were zero. And again, it sent housing prices skyrocketing where nobody can afford anymore. And I can tell you in many areas, it's still about as unaffordable as can be. prices are still very elevated. That's the outcome of him as we normalize. And hopefully I'm right that it does not turn into 08.

I don't think it's going to. But what the hell do I know? We'll see. What else? You and your money. The markets. Fairness. We like fair.

We like full and fair disclosure. You know how recently I told you I screwed up the NVIDIA trade? My full and fair disclosure. We'd rather tell you our failures than our successes. Why? Who better the check and balance oneself than oneself? Now, when I say to you, we, want full and fair disclosure, we would like that from our leaders. And as you know, our leaders are

being made fun of for their insider trading that we would be indicted for, tried for, and if found guilty, go to jail for, yet they do those things, and they do it in plain sight and don't give a crap. You have people that are heading up committees like the pharmaceuticals and are buying pharmaceutical stocks before announcements, defense stocks before defense announcements where government spends a crap load of money on those defense companies. In other words, crooked. And in case you don't know, there has been a move of foot for quite a while to write the those wrongs and not enable these people to trade, especially in the areas that they are overseeing. What a concept, full and fair.

And remember, they're getting into our markets. And they're doing in ways that if we did it, would be illegal. And it's tiresome. Don't you think? Aren't you pissed? I am. Isn't it enough enough that they're running

$2 trillion deficits? Isn't it enough that they've taken us to the point where our first $1.2 trillion of our tax dollars is going towards interest? Isn't that enough? We just found out that the president's been doing a crap load of trades also. The president.

He purchased $500,000 to $1 million worth of Nvidia stock on January 6th, a week before the Commerce Department officially approved the sale of Nvidia chips to China. I'm only going to mention one. I can mention others. Doesn't that piss you off? It does me. Nancy Pelosi's been doing it for years. Doesn't that piss you off?

We're supposed to be... looking up to these people, thrilled with them, and they're trading on inside information, amongst other things they are doing. We take no joy. Because of this, we went independent many years ago. I'm registered Republican just so I can vote in the primary. I got no use for any. I'm looking for heroes. I haven't found a one. And I've never understood the ultimate love of these people that are taken advantage of their positions in life.

The positions where they're supposed to be above reproach, where we can tell our children how terrific they are. I can't do that. So just letting you know the president is trading on insider information also. Yay. And we already know about all his announcements and all the big buys and sells. Up next, we'll get off of that.

Much more. This is the one only Investor's Edge. You're listening to. What are we waiting for? Well, what are you waiting for? One, two, ready, go. Action! Investors Edge.

With Gary Culper. And walk once again to Investor's Edge. All right, so this is what I'm noticing. Number one, the semiconductors had a rough day today, but they are so elevated pullback mode. To what extent I don't know, but they're way above the above, and it looks like probably going to go back into

what we call new areas of basing, the semis. And as you know, the artificial intelligence component and all that has been out there. Next, all the areas that we have told you about to avoid, they remain a voids, except the software's been coming around. But autos and auto dealers, most medical, most, there's a few that are strong. but if I had 100 names in medical and five strong, that's most medical. Retail. Terrible. I'm not sure I have one name now in shape.

Since raw stores broke the 50 day, I don't think I have one name. Travel related. Oil prices going up, forget about it. Airlines, cruise lines, hotels. casinos. Mentioned again, the housing and housing related. Absolute horror show. A lot of the financials,

though the big banks have been holding up, usually always hold up pretty decent, though regional banks worse. Except for tobacco consumer staples. Terrible. Golden silver. Been trying rolled over today. Why would gold and silver roll over today?

Well, the dollar gets stronger when interest rates go up. Go look why. And by the way, they really hit golden silver today. Transports. Well, I can tell you the truckers, I think pretty darn good shape. And the numbers, I think we have mentioned to you, there's one person we follow on the trucking business. You go on Twitter or X and just put in Freight Alley, F-R-E-I-G-H-T-A-Lie.

That's Craig Fuller. He pretty much is the smartest dude when it comes to these things, and he's pretty good at it. That said in the transports is Avis Rent-A-Car, that when straight north and straight south and has been affecting the transport index, and they need to get rid of it. Today, we've been saying that steel and some of the metals mining have been strong. I've got to look them over, but they got hit today.

Why would they get hit today? Well, commodities will get hit when the dollar gets stronger. Go look up why. We're still not thrilled with China. Anything below the 50 day? And when I say a lot of financials, I mean a lot of financials. And today will not look good on a resume, the action, and it's sold off into the close because yields stayed near the highs of the day.

And if yields keep going higher, I'm not so sure there's a lot good I'm going to say when it comes to the market. because it is a defining force in the market. Always has been and always will be. Our president had better figure out what to do about these oil prices. I think many a mouthpiece on TV, including the politicians,

have been a little too, Senguin. Notice the big word. Sanguin. Oh, yeah, we're fine. Everything's going to be good. And soon as this happens, that'll happen. Well, I can tell you it's now May 15th. May 15th. Oil prices broke out on February 27th and especially March 2nd. We're now two and a half months into this. The economy has its way of being able to get used to things. I'm not so sure how long. Let me add another part of the equation.

Most foreign bond markets, a lot of, well, let me take that back. A lot of the important foreign markets, their bond markets are under pressure, meaning their interest rates are going higher, meaning their cost of capital is going higher along with ours. It's trouble. Potential trouble will keep you informed as we move forward. Wish we had better news. We'd love to give you better news.

But boy, oh boy, even before today in the recent little distribution, half the market we have told you, Under no uncertain terms were in their own private bear markets, downtrend bearish markets. They ain't getting better except for some of the software. And now we broke out in yields. Markets are going to have to deal with that. You'll have a great weekend. Yeah, I know.

I hush your buzz. Drive carefully when you get home, do like we do. Make sure you hug your family and hug your children. They will feel better. You will feel better. I promise stay well be. well, always appreciate your time. Talk to you soon. Bye-bye. This has been Investors' Edge with Gary Kaltbaum on BizTalk. To listen to past episodes or to get in contact with Gary,

go to GaryK.com. That's GaryK.com.