Investor's Edge with Gary Kaltbaum - The Whipsaw Week In Review!

Episode Date: December 16, 2022

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Terms apply. Lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for detail. Investor's Edge with Gary Coltbaum. Straight talk about you and your money. Now from the BizTalk Studios, here is Gary Cultbaum. And welcome once again to Investors Edge. I'm Gary Colbom, your host day.

Thanks for being with us today. Glad you're here, ladies and gentlemen, happy that you are listening. It's Friday. It is December 16th, 2022. You are now listening to the most important show anywhere. TV, radio, podcasts, YouTube does not matter on you, your money, the markets, the economy, the protection of capital, Washington, D.C., and everything else under the sun. I'm still waiting to wake up. We're the number one podcast in all of the country for what we have done for the public that has listened to this show just, just since February of 21.

Forget everything else. We don't even need to go backwards before there to be out in front of all the bubbles and calling the crashes. To be out in front of all the bubbles bursting. To be out in front of inflation coming. To be out in front of the misery named Jay Powell, nothing personal. To be out in front of markets topping, sectors topping, areas topping, bond market topping. To be out in front to this day of how now the market. is no longer looking at inflation, but at job loss.

Economic trouble. Earnings trouble. To be out in front, it's come from hard work. It's come from study of history. Looking at a photo album for familiar faces. In front of all this, we told you. You may not believe us. We said those words.

You may not believe us. But when the bare market hits, on average, the biggest winners of the prior bull market will drop 70% or more. You should have seen the emails we got. We don't get them anymore. As not dozens, but hundreds of stocks drop 70% or more. We told you eventually they get them all. They've got just about all. So we promise one thing going forward for our money, for the people we manage money, we don't handle your money, but you get to decide.

There are going to be two things going forward. Number one, protection of capital when need be. Number two, stay in lockstep or just one step ahead of the markets. We do not need to be that person to tell you. I saw somebody on TV yesterday. Well, we expect a rally into year end, a bad January and February, flattening out and then lift off in March. And I'm thinking to myself, I haven't even decided what I'm having for dinner yet.

And people are trying to tell you what week and what month something's going to do and when it's going to change. Those to us are comedy acts. What we just want to do is get the main trends right, the main direction right. You know what our biggest mistake in 2022 was? You ready for this? The day we came back from New Year's, when we said, okay, they're really going to be getting everything now. That day we said, but oil stocks look to be emerging. I didn't buy one oil stock and for the next few months, watch them go.

It was January 3rd. I remember it well. If you go back, you had a big up day in the oil stocks. I remember the OIH just absolutely turning the corner on big volume. I remember the X-O-P. I remember the X-L-E, the bigger oil. breaking above the 50 day. And I said, you know, I think stocks on average are going to get trashed.

These are still stocks. I'm going to hang. And guess what? They went. That's my biggest mistake this year. Could have had a nice little. I would have never gone 100% in them, but I should have been going 20. And probably would have made 25%.

It would have been good for 5%. At least, but I just watched. And I wasn't really P-Oed about it because the rest of the market was just getting destroyed. And we were beating the pants off of the market just because of that. But it's a lesson. In my notebook, I wrote down a few interesting paragraphs to myself that the next go-round on something like that, a major counter-trend sector next time I won't be shy. And as always, you stop if wrong.

But the rest of the year, no big mistakes, none. We made some hay on counter-trend rallies. We lost some hay on counter-tren rallies, but kept it very close to the vest. One of our best calls this year was don't buy the breakouts. They were all failing. Some worked, just a few. But man, stock after stocked after stock would break out and boop.

Goodbye. One of our best calls. This recent rally up, one of our big thoughts and big worries, the Dow led it. That's not good. And also a bunch of U-shaped Dow-type names. A lot of people are saying, oh, look how strong that stock is. I'm saying, oh, we've seen that before. Guess what's happened to those U-Shapes?

They're now turning down most of them. And the big worry, NASDAQ, NASDAQ 100, and the Russell 2000 acting like the south end of a northbound jackass. They never even got going. They had one rally off the lows. That was November 10th. That big gap to the upside, then sat for five weeks and now rolling over. And how do we know that's a problem? history. They are the risk appetite indices. They are the risk on indices. And it just tells you

that the big money wants to find safer places. And the safer places are the more liquid stocks and the ones that are kind of boring traders. What do we mean by boring? traders. We call them low beta. The beta is how much it moves versus the market. And that's the Dow types. Therein lies the worries as we have moved up recently. But the NASDAQ, NASDAQ 100, had one strong day and then sat and now rolling over again. So as we head into the end of the year and into the new year, it's getting icky again. And you need to be watching closely. Because if the NASDAQ, NASDAQ 100, break the lows. Guess what we tell you that does?

It's in recognition by the big institutions and it invites more selling. And due to the fact we have not had what we consider to be the real coughing up of investors. And amazingly so. And what do we mean by that? usually during bear markets, you get some headline moves. You know, when you turn on CBS News at 6.30 p.m., they start with the market. Don't think we've seen it yet. Hope we don't.

Up next, we can review today and all that. Whatever. I'm Gary. This is the one only Investors Edge. Hi, I'm Gary Kalbaum. Hosted a nationally syndicated radio show Investors Edge. We're not just handsome radio people. We manage investors' money for a living,

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Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply. Lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details. This episode is brought to you by Spreaker. The platform responsible for a rapidly spreading condition known as podcast brain.

Symptoms include buying microphones you don't need, explaining RSS feeds to confused relatives, and saying things like, sorry, I can't talk right now, I'm editing audio. If this sounds familiar, you're probably already a podcaster. The good news is Spreaker makes the whole process simple. You record your show, upload it once, and Sprinker distributes it everywhere people listen. Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and about a dozen apps your cousin's swears are the next big thing. Even better, Spreaker helps you monetize your show with ads, meaning your podcast might someday pay for, well, more microphones. Start your show today at spreeker.com. Spreaker, because if you're

going to talk to yourself for an hour, you might as well publish it. It's time to switch on the integrator units and get the brain cells working. You're listening to. Hey, this promises to be fun. Investors Edge. The last bastion of quality programming. With Gary. called bomb it doesn't get better than this book once again to investors edge um a very tough week it was a very tough week for us but we made it easy what do i mean by that as we have been telling you we had that move off the lows and then we sat for five weeks in the beginning of the week they started breaking things out to the upside, a bunch of semiconductor names breaking out to the upside above that range.

And normally, listen carefully, when you break out above a very nice tight range, usually, usually, you get some hay out of that, unless you're in a bare market. And I must tell you, we sat here as we watch things like analog devices, KLA 10Core, Terradine, Microsoft, moving above range. And we must tell you, we had to bite our lip on it. Because what we do is we actually live for stair steps, break to the next stair step to the upside or downside.

And we're watching it in real time. Think about that. We as money managers, watching it in real time, and we have plenty of cash to deploy. And it also happened on a very good inflation report. What kept us? We're going to have to thank Jay Powell because we knew he was going to be yapping the next day. And there's no way in hell we want to get in front of Jay Powell. God only knows.

But then, guess what happened? The day Jay Powell speaking is Wednesday. And I got to tell you, right before the announcement, things were starting to move again. And we bit our lip again. And we said, you know, we're so darn ahead of the markets this year by miles. if we're wrong and we don't buy, you can always get in if we have more legs to the upsine. But if we're wrong and we do buy, we're going to be stopping out in minutes.

And we said, what would piss us off more? The right way one. So we're just giving you an idea how we actually go through the motions of doing things and thinking things. this is not just physical, it is emotional. And the bear market took over again. And we can sit here from now to New Year's and tell you why we don't even want it to matter at this juncture. We did a little bit of that yesterday. I think we did a lot of that yesterday.

What we care about most is that the bare market took over again in many windows. Now, today was much worse early. We do want to tell you what happened, what we think happened towards the close of the day. So we broke support of the past five weeks to the downside after attempting the upside. And ended real badly yesterday and we followed through more today, but came off the lows. Why would that happen? Well, what's the strongest index that we've been harping on? the Dow

what's the second the S&P the NASDAQ is already below the all-important 50 day the moving average the NASDAQ 100 not by a lot but below it

and so is the Russell 2000 but not the Dow and what did the Dow do today it went down to 32654 less than two-tenths of 1% above the 50-day moving average before bouncing some. We think that's what happened. The strongest index held today. Still not a good day, but found a little bit of support.

The S&P actually undercut the 50-day and finished only 11 points below it. So actually what we are seeing is somewhat of the norm, even though it's still a rough day today. The market is already what we call oversold on a shorter term basis, not longer term, and potentially you can bounce a little, but may I state for the record,

a ton of stuff turned down this week. A ton of stuff turned down badly. namely whatever's going on with the regional banks and other banks not good other financials too so while the Dow held that 50 day by the way not in the bull market but after a drop it's still pretty gross out there not a lot of leadership and now 600 new yearly lows in the market while not one indexes at new yearly lows do you know what that means average stocks are worsening before the

indices, which potentially is a presage if it continues. The new high list, there ain't much going on. There's some China ADRs. China stocks are still relatively strong. After that, I don't have much. I'm looking right now on the NASDAQ. I think I got nothing. I'm looking at the NASDAQ right now. Yeah, I got an insurance stock, arch capital. It's a new yearly high. I'm looking. I can't find anything else on the NASDAQ. On the New York, new yearly highs.

I have a couple of Chinese names, two education names, symbol T-A-L and E-D-U that are still down 80% from... Those are the stocks that crashed down 90-some-odd percent from the highs. They are new yearly highs now. though still like 80 to 90% off the highs of a year and a half ago, and a couple other Chinese names. That's it, while 600 new yearly lows. Up next, the week in review, today's market wrap, whatever else. This is the one only investors' edge.

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Terms apply, lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details. This episode is brought to you by Spreker. The platform responsible for a rapidly spreading condition known as podcast brain. Symptoms include buying microphones you don't need, explaining RSS feeds to confused relatives, and saying things like, sorry, I can't talk right now, I'm editing audio. If this sounds familiar, you're probably already a podcaster. The good news is Spreaker makes the whole process simple.

You record your show, upload it once, and Spreaker distributes it everywhere people listen, Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and about a dozen apps your cousin's swears are the next big thing. Even better, Sprinker helps you monetize your show with ads, meaning your podcast might someday pay for, well, more microphones. Start your show today at spreeker.com. Sprinker, because if you're going to talk to yourself for an hour, you might as well publish it. This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect,

like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply, lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details.

We're listening to. America is talking. Investors Edge. He's got to be pleased with that. The crowd is just on its feet here. He's a Cinderella boy. With Gary Colbomb. It comes highly recommended.

You're going to feel bad. if you talk to. All right, today's market wrap is brought to you by Investment-Models.com. That's Jim Rohrabak, one of the great market timers. No gray areas with demand. You're either in or out of the market with his proprietary indicators. Go check it out. Investment-mottles.com.

Dow was still down 281 today. So it really wasn't a good day, but it was worse. The S&P was still down 43 today, but was worse. NASDAQ down 105. NASDAQ 100 down 101. The semiconductors are only down 25, so it tells you the NASDAQ, transports down another 151, advanced declines. 1,100 up, 2,900 down on the New York, 1600 up 2,600 down on the NASDAQ. And just pili, that's the best way to explain it.

The Dow today, at the lows, hit 32-654. So it was down about 540. but when you have a chance, go look at the Dow and go look with a 50-day moving average and you will see it got close. What do odds favor? Eventually breaking. We'll cross that bridge when we get there. But we urge you again, one of the keys to what we've been worried about is just go print out a chart of the Dow, then next to it print out a chart of the NASDAQ, and next to it put out a chart of NASDAQ, and next to it put out a chart of NASDAQ 100 and Russell 2000. and you will see a gargantuan underperformance by the risk on,

risk appetite indices. That is not good news at all. You want the opposite. We've said this a million times throughout the years. Okay. Maybe a couple of hundred. Next week is a shortened holiday week, I think. You know I'm not 100% sure.

I'll have to look it up in a second. Wall Street holidays. Wall Street holidays. Look how I do this right when you're on here. Next week? No. We are not off next week. We'll make sure.

No, I take that back. Thursday, November 24th. Hmm. Now that's Thanksgiving. the 26th this Christmas observed. Yeah, so it's a full week. Darn. Each market, oh, well, we are closing early December 20.

No, wait a minute. That's 24. I take it back. Yeah, we're full week next week. But it quiets down. There really are no earnings reports. Hopefully the miseries at the central bank shut the hell up. But they're such egomaniacs.

They love being out there. even though they look like such a doofus and sound like doofuses and are all over the map with their rhetoric, they don't shut up. So just not a great day today. Could have been worse, but was still down a bunch. And leave no doubt this week finished off with a good bout of distribution. And I did a little scanning earlier. It's, you know, we always also tell you about certain stocks we always followed. Did you know Ford just 96 million shares down 7% today, breaking down badly on news?

You know, things like that show up, and it's just not good news. So, caution is the buzzword. If things change, we'll let you know. But certainly the bearish market showed its teeth again, starting Wednesday late. after teasing the upside. And for me, the most important part of the equation, New Yearly lows, 600 of them now. There's 600 names at New Yearly lows.

The indices are not at New Yearly lows. One of the main secrets that we know that nobody else even pays attention to, amazingly, is that in bare markets, watch the New Yearly lows. And also watch what they are. You ready for some names? Medtronic, major medical parts, Salesforce.com, a Dow stock, major software, VF Corp, apparel,

Baxter International. That's New Yearly Low. The hell, medical products, Haynes Brands, Lincoln National, a life insurance company, Alley Financial, don't they give out loans for cars? Fubo TV. Capital One financial credit cards.

What have we been telling you lately? Designer brands, Tyson Foods, global payments. These are new yearly lows when the indices are not at new yearly lows. Catcher my drift? NASDAQ, Tesla, New yearly lows. Boy, Elon Musk. Did you see what he did? Remember, he took over Twitter because he wanted free speech again.

Unfettered free speech. He was tired of the bull crap from the lefties. Elon Musk shut down a bunch of reporters last night on Twitter. Without explanation. I'll let that sit. And guess what? His stocks at New Yearly lows. Coinbase, New Yearly Low.

Remember what we... You want to know where we're... worth. The day it came public, it at 429, we told you the stock was going to be under 50. Why? It was created to trade bubbles. Close at 36 today. So underneath the surface, weakening. If Monday we can come back and say to you, 850 new yearly lows, bad. So stay tuned, pay attention, and know this ain't no hill for a climber. On the week, NASDAQ, down 2.72%, and on an ugly weekly bar, where it finished near the lows of the week. The Dow, down 1.66, again, a very poor weekly bar, much higher in the week, finished near the lows of the week.

The S&P 500, 2.09%, the Russell 2000, 2.4%. just remember, they were much higher early in the week, and the transports only about 1.1%. We'll throw it a party. But you'll have to trust me when I say, the fact that we were higher early and finished near the lows of the week is not good news. Next week will be another week. I know a lot of people are saying Christmas rally, we'll let the market the sign. the votes were in by the end of this week and guess what you got it and again if anything changes we'll let you know but a lot more failed breakouts this week uh big failed breakouts stocks move above range and then drop

seven percent hope you're ready for what's to come if it's to come uh in the news well we already mentioned Elon Musk and why is that important Tesla stock was the number one bigger name high beta risk appetite stock of the bull market that's why that's the best way to explain it and we already knew he was a little weird before all this you remember with the smoking weed and a bunch of other things he did the other question is why does he keep selling more and more stocks sold another three billion bucks. These are good questions. The other news, Donald Trump, and I made fun of them yesterday. You know that about his trading

cards or whatever? You know what we're hearing? People are bidding them up. Go figure. No, really. They're really bidding them up. Up next, this, that, and the other thing, whatever else. This is the one only investors at. This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect. Like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card.

What's in your wallet? Terms apply, lounge access is subject to change. See Capital1.com for details. This episode is brought to you by Spreker. The platform responsible for a rapidly spreading condition known as podcast brain. Symptoms include buying microphones you don't need, explaining RSS feeds to confused relatives, and saying things like, sorry, I can't talk right now, I'm editing audio. If this sounds familiar, you're probably already a podcaster.

The good news is Spreaker makes the whole process simple. You record your show, upload it once, and Spreaker distributes it everywhere people listen, Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and about a dozen apps your cousin swears are the next big thing. Even better, Sprinker helps you monetize your show with ads, meaning your podcast might someday pay for, well, more microphones. Start your show today at spreeker.com. Sprinker, because if you're going to talk to yourself for an hour, you might as well publish it. This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card.

Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply, lounge access is subject to change.

See Capital One.com for details. You're listening to. What are we waiting for? Well, what are you waiting for? One, two, ready, go. Action! In Investors Edge. With Gary Culpa.

And what once again, two investors. Mr. Edge, this segment is going to be called, here is what I'm watching closely. You ready? First off, we've already known the NASDAQ, NASDAQ, NASDAQ-100 and the Russell 2000 are below the 50-day moving average. That is of quite the import. You still have, well, the low of the, I'm going to give you two numbers.

on the NASDAQ. The reversal day low, the big on October 13th was 10,088. We closed the 10705. But really, the closing low, 10262, you really don't want to break below 10262. We'll be watching that. That's the two numbers we'll be watching. Apple, what did we tell you, 134? We closed at 134.51. If you look at the weekly on Apple, I want to make a very careful statement on it because I know a lot of you own it

and maybe own it for a very long time and we don't want to make you do, we don't want to... There is... Go look at a weekly chart. Go back three years, four years, five years. This week it finished down five percent and change. Hit a high of 150, closed at 134.51, almost the low of the week. This is a terrible, horrible weekly chart. And just so you know what these charts are, there's price movement.

It's really near the ledge here. Just letting you know. a break would probably coincide with the NASDAQ and NASDAQ 100 breaking also. So keep that in mind. We're going to be watching that. We're going to be doing a bunch of channel checks. What is that? Well, Sunday I'm going to go to the Disney area and do some channel checks, which I don't really divulge the things I look for,

but the things I look for give me a real good feel and why Disney? Because if they're subpar during the holidays, now I do know Disney World sold out. That's normal. A couple I think others are sold out too on differing days. We're just going to get a decent feel behind that. I'll be at the airport because I'll be flying next week. I'll be doing a little channel checks there

and I speak to people that work at the airport and they have no problem telling you what's happening giving you a good feel around the holidays we'll be doing some channel checks at some retail we have this big gargantuan outlet mall places here in central Florida they'll be getting a visit from your handsome and buffed host just to get a feel

and it's not about how many people are walking through, it's how much is being bought. You can still be busy, but just browsing. And I'm pretty sure I'm going to get a good feel for things. You would think it's a small sampling, but when you have Central Florida with 75 million people visit, pretty much giving a $75 billion economic impact, It doesn't hurt to figure that out. And then we'll be watching the New Yearly Low List. If it expands, it means the market's going to teeter even more.

I can't say that any louder, any clearer. Every time the New Yearly Low List started expanding before the indices during this bare market, a new leg has started. to the downside. So now we have out of nowhere, well not out of nowhere, because in a market weekend, 600 new yearly lows. We'll be watching that. And then our usual suspects. There's a group of stocks that we constantly watch, like the FedEx, like a Caterpillar, like a Home Depot, big name like McDonald's in the restaurants. Give us some clues. But there's no better clue then every night we will scan 1,500 to 2,000 names, 200 sectors, sub-sectors, every country, every commodity

to figure out the big picture. Our own proprietary scans. And as we've given you the example here, if the market was only 100 stocks, just 100. And 100 in an uptrend, you're in an uptrend. If the 100 and up trend flatten out, market flattens out. If the 100 that have flattened out turned down, market's starting a downtrendend. If you start to see two or three stair steps, it turns into a more main downtrend. That's how we do this. We simplify it, just with a lot more names, giving emphasis on important names. and when an apple that every dollar move is $16 billion market cap,

unprecedented by miles, we give it extra weight. When the top five stocks in the NASDAQ 100 are 40% of the whole NASDAQ 100, we give them extra weight. So these are the things we'll be looking for. We watch the bond market, of course, where we think the bond market little less relevance now, because the market's not looking at inflation anymore, it's looking at economic trouble,

which means earnings trouble, which means lower stock prices. Quite simple as that. Hopefully simplified it for you. Hey, for those that love football, soccer, enjoy the game Sunday. I think I may even watch also. You all have a great weekend.

Oh, wait a minute. I've got to maybe change. an appointment. Drive carefully when you get home, do like we do. Quite simply, make sure you hug your family, hug your children. They'll feel better. You will feel better, I promise. Have a great weekend. Thanks for joining. Bye, bye, by all. This has been Investor's Edge with Gary Cult Bomb on BizTalk. To listen to past episodes or to get in contact with Gary, go to Garyk.com. That's GaryK.com. This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect.

Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card, what's in your wallet? Terms apply. Lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details.