Investor's Edge with Gary Kaltbaum - The Widest Margins

Episode Date: May 16, 2023

Follow Gary on GaryK.com or http://garykaltbaum.com

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Investor's Edge with Gary Coltbaum. Straight talk about you and your money. Now from the BizTalk Studios, here is Gary Cultbaum. And welcome once again to Investors Edge. I'm Gary Colbom, your host day. Thanks of being with us today. Glad you here, ladies and gentlemen. Happy that you are listening.

It's May 16, 2020. I believe it's Tuesday. That is correct. Hope you're having a good day. Lots to cover as always. We are full. of thrills and rides and roller coasters going on in our world. The markets, the economy, jobs, unemployment, them, the Morlocks in D.C.

And everything else under the sun. You know, ladies and gentlemen, every now and then we'll say to you, we are the best technicians on this earth. Market technicians. We say it a little bit of tongue and cheek. But we also say it with a little bit of seriousness, because time and time again, the roadmap of the markets, and what we tell you what we are seeing in interpreting, do not lead us astray. And what we are seeing right now, the same applies. Now, in case you do not know, there's this debt ceiling thing that they're warning us about and telling us another crisis.

and this talk that, ooh, the markets may be getting in trouble because of that. We're here to tell you, we push that to the side and say to you, as always, it's not the news, it's how the markets react to the news. You cannot slam a market unless it's set up to be slammed. That said, you can be in a bull market, a strong bull market, if something a kid i have to bring this up i apologize for bringing it up front but i'm just trying to make a point you know what i'm going to take that away if a big earthquake happened and swallowed some cities wide that can change the the complexion how's that if somebody attacked the united

states that can change the bull market but absent that the reason why market go down is because they want to go down and every now and then they'll get a little bit of a nudge because of news that's out there. So I want to start out by going over what we have been telling you about the markets. Number one, we have used the word narrow many times in the recent past. we have given you a great, great, great example of what we meant. If there was only 100 stocks in the market, 90 of them were going down and 10 were going up. But the 10 had so much influence, they were 90% of the market. Well, you can own 90 stocks and lose your butts.

You can own 10 stocks and do great. But that little occurrence normally ends with those 10 going by-bye eventually, because what it's telling you is markets selling the most and parking the money into the most influence. And usually they are the biggest, most liquid. I'll use the word dependable names in the markets. And we've been using the word narrow for a while. What else have we been telling you? Advanced decline figures stink.

What else have we been telling you? The NASDAQ advanced decline figures were probing and trolling bare market lows while the NASDAQ's up like 15% this year, maybe even more. And what does that mean? Seven stocks are 51% of the NASDAQ 100. They're huge for the NASDAQ. They're 23% of the S&P. And it just so happens, a good portion of those seven names are doing well.

Even though one can say their fundamentals, not so great. What else have we been telling you? There's very little in the way of leadership. Housing stocks. Up until the last few days, gold was, but not anymore. That's fallen by the wayside. second, some mega cap tech. Yesterday we told you about some semiconductors and they had a good day today. What else have we been telling you? Avoid energy, commodities, retail, defense, managed care,

autos, financials, economically sensitive, insurance, airlines, most of the transports, a lot of the bombed out stuff still down 60, 70, 80% from the highs of 2021. And there's some other things we've been telling you to avoid. That broad market worsened again today. Some areas of support taken out while all that money ran out of that money ran out of that. into the few. The only thing we own right now is mega cap tech. They were all up today while the Dow was down 336 points. And the only reason we own them is because their patterns, their roadmap, completely different of these other areas just mentioned, are worry, and we're

watching closely what did we say eventually they get them also we don't think we're there yet but a putrid day again today and I'll mention at the get-go the NASDAQ was only down a little bit and it all happened in the last 15 minutes the NASDAQ 100 was actually up today the semiconductor index was up all day finished down just four points with the Dow down 336. What was up today? Google Microsoft, NVIDIA, Oracle, Apple was flat, Facebook was flat, Amazon was up,

and advanced microdevices was up. Remember I told you Lamb Research yesterday? That was up. Now, we don't know what tomorrow brings, and we don't know what the news is going to be, and we don't know what the misfits in D.C. are going to do. All we know is the... information we have at hand more stocks broke the 50-day moving average today to downside more stocks broke the 21-day moving average to the downside and the

Dow at the close and not the biggest of deals but that broke below the 50-day moving average by the close today and that's been hanging on for dear life now we give much less weight to the Dow because it's only 30 names but It's still a little bit of indicitiveness. Is that a word? Indicativeness? If it isn't, I just made one up. So just letting you know, the roadmap's playing out.

We heard somebody say last night that the guy from the big short who has a hedge fund, his last name is Burry. The reason why the regional banks were up yesterday is because he said, were disclosed is the word, that he bought some regional banks. Okay. We're not. We hope he's right. Because if he is, we'll get indications, and maybe we'll join that. Not yet. But the financials had a bad day also. What really sticking out, though, is the retail stocks. Holy crap. They're killing them.

what does that say we keep hearing how strong the consumer is and consumer spending but retail stocks are getting smoked and we'll bring up Home Depot in a couple of minutes as they reported something that I don't think we've heard in forever we'll get to that wish we had better news

we hope you're listening up next full market wrap movers of the day news of the day I'm Gary this is the one to only invest Hi, I'm Gary Kalbaum, hosted a nationally syndicated radio show Investors Edge. We're not just handsome radio people. We manage investors' money for a living, specializing in fee-based discretionary money management. No big commissions, just a fee on the assets that's managed.

We also provide a full range of personalized services, including retirement planning, fixed income, and educational needs, all to assist you in achieving your financial goals. understanding not all individuals have the same needs, we'll carefully evaluate your personal goals to determine a proper investment strategy. If your current approach to investing is not getting you to where you would like to be, call us to make an appointment for a complimentary portfolio review.

The number to call is 888-4-2-5-59. That's 8-8-5-5-9. That's 888-4-2-2-5-9. investment advisory services offered through call bomb capital management. Hi, I'm Dr. Jake Goodman, host of Beyond the Script, the podcast where I sit down with pharmacists to answer the health questions you didn't even know you could ask at the pharmacy counter. In this episode, we are diving into gut health with CVS pharmacist Victoria Motola,

who explains why so many of us live with stomach issues we should not accept as normal. A lot of what I see is just like, chronic bloating, chronic stomach aches. Like, I get a stomach ache every time that I eat. And it just becomes like a lifestyle where, oh, yeah, you know, I just, I have a stomach ache every day. Or I'm constantly feeling like gassy. And all of those things are not something that generally, if you have a healthy gut,

you should be living with. So that's when we deep dive. We deep dive into your medication. We deep dive into your OTC medication. And then at that point, we can probably identify something that we can change. Hear the full conversation, plus some fascinating facts about how gut health affects so much more than just your stomach on Beyond the Script, a podcast from CVS Pharmacy and IHeartRadio. Listen now wherever you get your podcasts. Struggling to see up close, make it visible with Viz.

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The last bastion of quality programming. With Gary Coltbaum. It doesn't get better than this. Okay, dokey. The market wrap is brought to you by Investment-Models.com. That's Jim Morbach, one of the great market timers. No gray areas with the man you're either in or out of the market. proprietary indicators go check it out investment dash models dot com down 336 but the nasdaq 100 only down 12

excuse me up 12 the dow down 336 the nasdaq only down 22 and that happened in the last few minutes that was down 336 the socks only down 3 and 4 almost 4 but you ready with the nasdaq only down 22 and the nasdaq 100 up 12 advanced declines on the nasdaq were 1,200 up, 3,000 down. Need I say more? The influence of the few. Which, by the way, we think is still going to work right now. We think. New highs on the NASDAQ. I think there's about 15 new lows, 179. There's double the new yearly lows on the New York also. And let me repeat myself. Financials, economically sensitive. Commodities. Insurance. Transports, most of them. A lot of the travel. The gaming stocks just broke down. The big cap biotech, except for a couple names. Vertex and Biogen Actwell. Drug stores. Just about everything retail. Everything energy. Defense stocks, auto stocks, payroll stocks, managed care stocks. I can go on. Machinery stocks.

A lot of voids, kids. And we'll just repeat. The only thing we own is the mega cap tech here. And believe me, we're counting the minutes on that, too. Transports were down 201 today. The roadmap. And I gather when I go through the Dow tonight, that definitely works. So now Home Depot, just so you know, earnings down seven, revenues down four.

Stock finished down six and change today. Was down 12. But it's what they always. also said. Besides Home Depot really screwing me over with my parents refrigerator, they really worked at it to get it done. It's a very good company. They've stated, and I guess I can read, and I think Target reports in the next day or so,

Home Depot. Expenses rose faster than anticipated. There will be greater risk of earnings misses going forward. I can go on and on A 6% drop in customer transactions Pointed to a steepening decline to do-it-yourself sales Blah blah blah Stay in gear with us

Housing stocks Teflon still They opened up badly today Mostly finished green today Teflon They're in shape I'll give it that I mentioned the semis but it's not all of them

A bunch of the semis act like crap and there are a smattering of things. McDonald's, strong as an ox in the down. Very strong. Some of the consumer staple, strong, except a few are starting to go icky now. Not sure I can think of too much else. So we'll see.

Now, what about the debt ceiling? Maybe if that's all it is and when they get it fixed, it could be. I'm all for that. They are still saying they're far apart. And I hear, I guess, Joe Biden had a G7 meeting and he's going to cut it short and come back to negotiate. But you've got to realize the Marxists are not budging. The Republicans want enough with the spending.

Joe Biden wants to spend $6.8 trillion this coming year for the government. It was 4.4 in 2019 the year before COVID. That's a 50-some-odd percent increase. It's freaking insanity. You all should be yelling and screaming. I don't care if you're a public con or Democrat. Marxist party. You should be screaming at these people.

They're crushing us. They're killing us. 6.8. The year 2000, federal spending was 1.8 trillion. They're trying to tell us they need 6.8 trillion now. You know what they are? Their job of the hut. You know who Jabba the Hut is from Star Wars?

Go look. Google what he looks. looks like that's them. It's insane. If I didn't know better, they're out to crush us. Then again, that's what communists and Marxists and socialists like doing, crushing people. I presume that they'll get this done, probably in overtime. In 2011, the S&P dropped 18%. And there was no default. Even if there wasn't a default, the S&P, I think it was S&P or somebody rating service downgraded us. Here's the fun part and how crooked the rating services are. They downgraded us back then because the new deal they were coming up with was not good enough.

Too much government spending, too much debt. Well, it was $14 trillion back then. It's $32 trillion now. How come they haven't lowered our rating at $32 trillion? Senate Majority Leader came out. Everybody understood that a default would be a disaster. Everyone agreed, including Speaker McCarthy, that we need to be bipartisan. House Minority Leader Jeffrey says discussions were friendly and cordial.

Everyone agreed that default is not an option. We're going to work with the fierce urgency of now. There's only one problem. They're a bunch of frickin Marxists. You know, they won't even cut a pen. Ask them to cut a penny. If we do that, that takes money away from welfare. They're so full of crap.

It's disgusting. Anyway, that's what's going on. But back on point. Even before there's debt ceiling crap, the deterioration in a lot of the market's been going on. Just letting you know. They're also lying to us. I just want to let you know that.

There's like a deadline of June 1st. That's a lie. Just so you know. There's a ton of money coming in in June that would pay for anything going forward. So it's really July, August, but you got to create a crisis. Up next. This, that, and the other thing, or whatever else. This is the one only investor's edge.

Hi, I'm Dr. Jake Goodman, host of Beyond the script, the podcast where I sit down with pharmacist to answer the health questions you didn't even know you could ask at the pharmacy counter. In this episode, we are diving into gut health with CVS pharmacist Victoria Motola, who explains why so many of us live with stomach issues we should not accept as normal. A lot of what I see is just like chronic bloating, chronic stomach aches. Like I get a stomach ache every time that I eat and it just becomes like a lifestyle where, oh yeah, you know, I just I have a stomach kick every day, or I'm constantly feeling like gassy. And all of those things are not something that generally, if you have a healthy gut, you should be living with.

So that's when we deep dive. We deep dive into your medication. We deep dive into your OTC medication. And then at that point, we can probably identify something that we can change. Hear the full conversation, plus some fascinating facts about how gut health affects so much more than just your stomach on Beyond the Script, a podcast from CVS Pharmacy and IHeartRadio. Listen now wherever you get your podcasts. Ever feel like your bedroom's running out of space?

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We're listening to America is talking. Investors Edge. He's got to be pleased. with that the crowd is just on his feet here he's a Cinderella boy with Gary Colbomb comes highly recommended you're gonna feel better if you talk to him so here's what we're watching for I want to be a little bit repetitive here for all you out there narrow markets usually end badly and the reason is narrow markets are usually indicative indicativeness again there's that word they're indicative of a de-risking of the

market and typically narrow markets that money got to flow somewhere and it'll flow in it's always the most gargantuan names in the market and guess what ready for new highs new yearly highs of the market if i thought oh Microsoft Oracle and video new yearly highs apples close you know it's been rolling in the last few days Google, Amazon, Facebook's close. Guess what these are? Gargantuan. But Gary, tech, isn't tech not safe?

Well, nothing's safe. But what's led for years? And what do people tend to flock to? That is correct. And just remember, we're not just talking people. We're talking the big institutions. They've got to move a lot of money around. What's easiest to buy and sell a lot of?

The mega caps. In case you didn't know, you ready? Apple's market cap is $2.7 trillion. Amazon, $1.16 trillion. Microsoft, $2.3 trillion. Google's going to be less so, but that is $1.5 trillion. That's a T. so it's easy to get in easy to get out simple as that and the photo album of familiar faces showed us that

way we don't know how long it lasts we don't know how far goes it can end tomorrow we can only deal with the information we have at hand right now and when i say the rest of the market uh the russell 2000 it's only two thousand Fox continue to act terribly. The mid-cap 400 acts terribly. The oils. You get my point. Yields are up a little bit today. Dollar was a little bit stronger. The crypto is sucking wind again. And as we've told you, they came out with 23,000 of these things. And most are zero. A lot of the crap is blown up. Oh, by the way, utilities are breaking down two here right now. Gold.

Two weeks ago, I was told that gold had its highest search numbers ever to search how to buy gold. Perfect time for it to putting in the near term top. Just letting you know. Under pressure right now, the gold miners, the metal hold up better. but now nearing the 50-day moving average a break below would be not a death knell but certainly you lose any opportunity to go higher hasn't done that yet but certainly almost there silver is worse uh silver actually the s lv finished below the 50-day moving average today that's not good news tomorrow will be another day so mega cap techs a big cap tech smattering of other

tech, some of the semis, housing stocks, consumer staples, not all, because I saw a couple breaking down. And I'm hard pressed to find a lot, much else that gets me all excited. Yeah, the waste management stock's not bad. They haven't broken out yet, but not bad. Auto parts retail, but they're getting under pressure too right now. The drug stocks are strong. Not all.

They remain in good shape. pulling back and there's some drug news with some of these things and I don't even really want to bring that I'll never mention the symbols here but a bunch of no sales biotechs are strong and I don't get it but welcome to my world a bunch of speculative AI stocks just busted up big time and just as we always tell you to be careful about earnings one of the most asked about stocks of me has been a symbol oh and on holding switchillard based company 90, 200 retail stores, premium sports shoes and apparel, down 10% today on earnings. By the way, the earnings were very good.

It's got to be careful. You just don't know. We're always careful about earnings time, about what we own, where we own it, how much cushion we have, do we have cushion? We just don't like pressing our luck. Markets are tough enough. What else? Well, you know, today, $5 billion. was added to our debt because now we can't even say two and a half billion or three billion anymore.

We're going to have two trillion this year. So let's call it $5 billion was added to our debt today. Today, about $3 billion of our tax dollars is going to go towards interest on that debt. But don't worry, everything's fine. The honorable congressmen and women, the senators, are working for us. remember when it happens they will blame each other we will be the victims just like 08 and what ended up happening

the wonderful people in DC took 800 billion of our tax dollars and handed it over to the people who committed felonies at the banks and at the lenders save their asses with our tax dollars even though they committed felonies not one was indicted They kept their jobs, and guess what's happened over the last 15 years?

These people are billionaires. They committed massive fraud. And I get asked, Gary, why are you so pessimistic about them? So I repeat, I've never been more optimistic on most of us. I've never been more pessimistic on them. And just think, wow, it's probably going to be Donald Trump against Joe Biden in 24. feel better now one who's a wimp that can't even admit losing the other the other's a control freak marxist oh and i can go back and forth on both of them that'll be up next yay anyway we'll see what

happens tomorrow just a rough day rough close for a change we had a bad close today we've been having we've been having bad days and good closes where they they saved the day they couldn't do it today tomorrow we'll see and of course could be news driven brought to you by these lovelies you know they're meeting and just so you know here's the problem for a change the republicans are actually getting it right they said enough there's no way you're going from 4.4 trillion in spending the year before COVID to 6.8 trillion we're stopping you and we have the house and everything has to go through the house. That's the story here.

And all they want them to do is slow down the spending. I don't even want to cut spending. Just slow, stop it. No raising of spending. That's all they want. Just stop. Oh, but that's going to destroy the country. Up next.

What else I got for you? We'll think it over. I'm Gary. This is the one only investor's edge. Hi, I'm Dr. Jake Goodman, host of Beyond the Script, the podcast where I sit down with pharmacists to answer the health questions you didn't even know you could ask at the pharmacy counter. In this episode, we are diving into gut health with CVS pharmacist Victoria Motola, who explains why so many of us live with stomach issues we should not accept as normal.

A lot of what I see is just like chronic bloating, chronic stomach aches. like I get a stomachache every time that I eat and it just becomes like a lifestyle where, oh yeah, you know, I just have a stomachache or I'm constantly feeling like gassy and all of those things are not something that generally if you have a healthy gut you should be living with.

So that's when we deep dive. We deep dive into your medication. We deep dive into your OTC medication and then at that point we can probably identify something that we can change. Hear the full conversation plus some fascinating facts about how gut health affects so much more than just your stomach on Beyond the Script, a podcast from

CVS Pharmacy and IHeart Radio. Listen now wherever you get your podcasts. Ever feel like your bedroom's running out of space? Here's the good news. You don't have to sell your favorite things to make space. With IKEA bedroom storage solutions, dressers, wardroves, full closet systems, even storage boxes, you can hold onto it all. Your vintage banties, keep them. Those limited edition sneakers, they stay. And yes, there's room for your childhood teddy bear too. Need to organize a walk-in closet? The Pax's wardrobe lets you customize shelves, rails, and compartments,

so every item has a home. Too many clothes and not enough drawers. The Stork Lint has six-door dresser is perfect for denim, sweaters, and everyday essentials. And if the kids are taking over your space, TroFast storage boxes make sorting toys and art supplies easy and clean up fun. From primary suites to playrooms, IKEA has storage options that adapt to your life and have, help you keep what matters most. Don't sell anything you love. Store it instead. Shop IKEA bedroom

storage today at IKEA.us.us slash bedroom storage. Struggling to see up close, make it visible with Viz. Viz is a once daily prescription eye drop to treat blurry near vision for up to 10 hours. The most common side effects that may be experienced while using Viz include eye irritation, temporary dim or dark vision, headaches and eye redness. Talk to an eye doctor to learn if Viz is right for you. Learn more at Viz.com. You're listening to What are we waiting for? Well, what are you waiting for? One, two, ready, go. In The Bester's Edge.

With Gary Kaltbaugh. By the way, if you want to understand what we're talking about, the narrowness, the QQQ is the NASDAQ 100, was up today. It was up. The equal weighting NASDAQ 100, which means each stock, each is worth 1%. not seven stocks worth 51%. It was down 1% today. The equal weighting while the NASDAQ 100 was up.

Case closed. We're oversold here. Probably a little bounce. If we bounce, I think it's going to stay these mega cap. We'll see how far they go. Don't know. Again, take it day by day. the roadmap. And again, we'll be news driven. A little bit of news that came out. And by the way,

this is what we mean by, it's just a joke. In case you don't know, they came out with this report about Trump and the Russia collusion. And we all know Trump didn't collude with Russia. It was a scam. It was a con. It was a lie. And it was brought you by the head of the scam con artist, Hillary Clinton. We all know that. It's a gimmy. And the reason we know that is they've already absolved. her because that's what the media does and it's unfortunate so they came out with a report and it was basically to the point stating that they did this whole thing on trump and collusion all that and there was nothing there was nothing there was nothing there and it's also reports it was made up out of thin air and certain high-ranking people knew about it and still went forward with it you

know what the media says oh there was nothing nothing there it's a nothing burger the trump side says here you go, told you so. Now why are we bringing that up? The same reason we'd bring up everything on the debt and deficits. What do you think if the shoe was on the other foot? Guess what? You got it. If the shoe was on the other foot, the Democrats would be up in arms.

The Republicans would say there's nothing there. And that's the problem. All these politicians, along with their buddies, are just full of crap. And that's how you get the $32 trillion of debt. $32 trillion they have spent more than they were supposed to. Just wanted to make that point. See, we defended Trump on that part. Another scam, another con.

So rough day today. I gather they're going to try and defend the Dow here in the next day or so. Just because you break below support doesn't mean you can't get back above it quickly. Or the end of the world's at hand. so I think they'll recognize it and we'll see what happens in the next couple of days we're pretty much past all the big earnings there's a few more this week you got Target and tj max uh Cisco in the Dow which really doesn't move the needle ali baba a by do is up five bucks on earnings uh applied materials walmart's in the

dow that's reporting deer is reporting so you got a few movers but inmate in total there's not a lot left. You now just get a smattering of things. We'll get some more retailers in the next couple of weeks. Oils will come out, but most everything else is out. Let me tell you what else I have. I have one list in front of me of all the good reactions to earnings. That's one list. One column on my screen. And if need be, two columns. And we're going to just watch them very closely. some of our favorites that we're watching. We haven't bought them. Celsius, C-E-L-H,

kind of like some sort of, what is it, like a fitness drink, draft kings, but loses a lot of money. Shopify, Skechers, Uber. Great reactions doesn't mean we're going to buy a share. but throughout the decades that's what you want to pay attention to because that's the market talking and then you have some that are not as i don't know if the word's dynamic i see mackesson here royal caribbean cruise lines strong stock even with the loss but very good revenue growth of course revenues are back and we'll let you know on any of those

and in bull markets, I can flatly tell you, that's where you find big winners. Earnings come out, what stock closed at 110 opens at 122. And if it's a company that is not institutionally owned by the big crowd, and they start getting in, that's where you get your big winners. One of my best stocks that I bought was Facebook. When it first came public, they did everything wrong. It was, I think, 2013. They had done everything wrong.

Stock was acting terribly. Came public, went down to 20, and then gapped up like a monster out of nowhere. I think it was like 30-something bucks. Before you knew it, it was 50-something bucks. That's the type of stuff we're always looking for. What they did was blow away Wall Street estimates and was on its way.

In fact, the day was July 25, 2013. Moved up, sat around, broke out again at 40, ran to 52 before it got into any little trouble. That's what we're looking for. And we'll name them. As we come out, we'll state to you, damn, do you see that one? And with that Celsius, for example, earnings up 344%

revenues up 95. But that's got to continue. I can promise you if it doesn't, market's going to know it and that's going to be the end. But we're always looking for that next LA gear. You can go study that from 87. 14-fold in 17 months coming out of the crash. Why? Monstrous earnings and revenue growth.

The stuff we are always looking for. So stay tuned. tomorrow I think I'm on with Cavuto at noon Fox Business Network Don't quote me on that but I think I am But until tomorrow you have a great evening drive carefully Hopefully we'll get some better news on Gee raising more debt

And when you get home to do like we do Make sure you hug your family Make sure you hug your children They will feel better, you will feel better I promise Take care everyone until the same time tomorrow Peace out Hopefully things get better

Bye bye all This has been Investors' Edge with Gary Cult Bomb on BizTalk. To listen to past episodes or to get in contact with Gary, go to GaryK.com. That's GaryK.com. Guys, it's no use putting it off. The best time for an underwear refresh is now. Tommy John underwear is designed for a perfect fit that stays put all day. Their zero-chafe thanks to four times more stretch than competing brands.

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