Investor's Edge with Gary Kaltbaum - THE WILD WEEK IN REVIEW [11.14.2025]

Episode Date: November 14, 2025

https://garykaltbaum.com/The opinions you hear on BizTalkRadio, BizTV, or BizTalkPodcasts are those of the hosts, callers, and guests and do not necessarily reflect those of BizTalkRadio, BizTV, or BizTalkPodcasts, its management or advertisers. The information on BizTalkRadio does not constitute a recommendation, offer, or solicitation to buy or sell any product or securities. Please consult a professional before investing. 

Guys, it's no use putting it off. The best time for an underwear refresh is now. Tommy John underwear is designed for a perfect fit that stays put all day. Their zero-chafe thanks to four times more stretch than competing brands. And their innovative horizontal quick-draw fly is a game changer. With over 30 million pairs sold, there are thousands of men out there more comfortable than you. Don't settle for less. Go to Tommyjohn.com today for 25% off your first order with Code Comfort.

That's Tommyjohn.com, code comfort. Tommy John. Comfort perfected. Investor's Edge with Gary Coltbaum. Straight talk about you and your money. Now from the BizTalk Studios, here is Gary Cultbaum. And welcome once again to Investors Edge. I'm Gary Coltbaum, your host. A thanks of being with us today.

Glad you here, ladies and gentlemen, happy that you are listening. It is Friday, November 14th, 2025. And it's been quite the week. Quite the week in the markets. It's quite the week in the news, quite the week in the week. We'll hope you have a good day. We'll hope you have a good weekend. As always, serious talk on everything affects you.

We don't not screw around. We'll talk to markets, the economy, your job, your industry. Tariffs. Oh, yeah. Tariffs. Debt and deficits and scams and shams and corruption and government interference. We'll talk that too today. Hopefully we have enough time today. And if you not get this radio show in your city, we'll post it at garyk.com.

We'll post it on our X feed. If you don't follow us on X, you should. Just put our name in at X. If you'd like to email us, just be nice. By the way, we'll also put the show on other podcast apps as well as BizTV YouTube channel. Okay. Let's see if I can get through this stuff quickly. Number one, we're just so tired and you should be so tired.

Well, let me preface it. we went independent a long time ago we still have republican on our card so we can vote in the primary in florida but we went independent if you had followed have followed us you know we have no love for either party and when we say party we're talking about the people in leadership in the party over the last couple of decades the lies the interference The corruption, the giveaways, the glad handing, the list goes on and on, and of course, $38 trillion of debt. Just one big, gigantic con game. And we're just tired of it.

And when we go after one side here, it's for a reason. When we go after the other side, it's also for a reason. and we catch flack every now and then from people, but we're not catching flack anymore. We've been hitting them hard both ways, both sides, and we don't catch flack anymore because we think people recognize this guy's onto something, and that is enough.

So I just want to let you know today, President Donald Trump lowered and dropped a bunch of tariffs. And what they are telling us is the reason why they are doing that is because affordability, and that will lower prices for citizens. So he's been lying to you since day one on the tariffs. His peeps have been lying to you since day one on the tariffs. They have been telling you and I that the tariffs are paid by their. not us, that it does not cause prices to go up.

But now they are seeing the polls. Regardless of what the president says about the polls, his poll numbers have been heading south. And when you go deeper into the polls, it's back to affordability. And one of the reasons why the Marxist Party lost to Trump and the Republicans, is because they caused massive inflation and told you there wasn't any.

So this president's been doing the same. They saw the poll numbers. They obviously got together and said, Mr. President, you know, the tariffs, you know, you put the tariff on coffee and coffee prices have skyrocketed. And a lot of Americans drink coffee. But the tariff on beef and the price of beef. skyrocket and a lot of people like their beef, Mr. President, and they're pissed off.

Oh, okay. So now he's lowering the tariffs. I just have to tell you, it pisses me off so much to have to even say any of this. As you know, we love, love, love what this president has done on the border for the Jewish state and Israel. for crime, foreign policy, and I think there's going to be more to the Abraham Accords. But then all this stuff with the BS, with the tariffs, it's just enough. We got four years of Biden lying to us.

The border's secure. Kiss my butt. Oh, Afghanistan was a success. Kiss my butt. There's no inflation. Kiss my butt. Oh, inflation is trash. Transitory kiss my butt and then Obama before him

Obamacare your premiums are gonna go down kiss my butt We just don't want any of this anymore and this president has been shooting you right between the eyes on tariffs and lying about it well the good news is They've obvious obviously been listening to investors edge and watching me on five as one of the people that have been out there complaining about tariffs, and they're lowering them, and that should alleviate a little bit. Good to see. Next, housing. As you know, the cause of the housing distortions lays at the foot of Jay Powell. It's simple. He printed money to $9 trillion, bucks took that money and rigged the bond markets, took all that conjured up fake money and bought into

the bond market, taking 10 year yields down to half percent, which got us 3 percent mortgages. And what did that do? Well, everybody would hire mortgage refinanced. Terrific for them. Anybody getting new mortgages got 3% or less. terrific for them. But as usual, government causes distortions. And what did that do? Well, number one, who the hell wants to sell a home with a 3% mortgage to buy a home with a 7% mortgage as rates finally normalized because the yacht's got to how to get out of the way because the inflation he caused?

No one. So no inventory leads to housing spiking up. Simple as that. And housing prices have gone haywire to the upside. Now, some areas more than others because everybody wanted to get out of crappy blue states into Florida and other places. But we ended up with fantasy land prices, affordability problems. But what's the problem now? Guess what this administration's talking about, the answer to the housing. I just saw the new Fedhead, who's really a puppet for the president. he wants the lower interest rates.

Lower interest rates, how is that going to help affordability? If you lower the Fed funds rates, it could have the 10-year spike higher, which it has, and that's mortgage rates going higher. That doesn't help affordability. You know what the answer is to housing? Get government out of the way. Let's not even hear from them. Let the market do it.

You know what the market will do? I promise you, in time. time. Prices will come down because demand will go down because affordability. It works on its own. And as prices come down, that feeds on affordability to the better. And if you stop lowering the short-term rates, maybe the long-term rates will stop going up. And by the way, they've been starting to tick up again. But no, we're geniuses. We know better. Let's get involved. Yeah, there's a thing about building some more homes that doesn't make them more affordable doesn't necessarily lower prices let the free market do it the free market has always always

normalize things over time it's supply and demand it works great but no they're gonna screw it up again because they think they're big and that's one of the problems of government They think they're smarter than the market. They think they're better than the market. And they're not. They really are not. So I'm just letting you know I'm in hopes.

Get the hell out of the way. Leave it alone. Leave it big. Unfortunately, they are interlopers. They are interferers. So we'll see what happens. We'll stay on top of it. That's the housing thing.

Up next. wild markets. This is the one only Investor's Edge. Hi, I'm Gary Kalbaum, hosted a nationally syndicated radio show Investors Edge. We're not just handsome radio people. We manage investors money for a living, specializing in fee-based discretionary money management. No big commissions, just a fee on the assets that's managed.

We also provide a full range of personalized services, including retirement planning, fixed income, and educational needs, all to assist you in achieving your financial goals. Understanding not all individuals have the same needs, we'll carefully evaluate your personal goals to determine a proper investment strategy. If your current approach to investing is not getting you to where you would like to be,

call us to make an appointment for a complimentary portfolio review. The number to call is 888-4-22-559. That's 8-8-5-59. That's 888-4-2-2-2. 5-5-9. Investment Advisory Services offered through Colbaum Capital Management.

Guys, it's no use putting it off. The best time for an underwear refresh is now. Tommy John Underwear is designed for a perfect fit that stays put all day. Their zero-chafe thanks to four times more stretch than competing brands, and their innovative horizontal quick-drop fly is a game-changer.

With over 30 million pairs sold, there are thousands of men out there more comfortable than you. Don't settle for less. Go to Tommyjohn.com today for 25% off your first order with code comfort. That's Tommyjohn.com code comfort. Tommy John. Comfort perfected. This message is brought to you by the Capital One VentureX card.

VentureX offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply.

Lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details. Greenlight helps kids learn about money the way most of us never did by actually using it. It's a debit card and money app that teaches kids to earn, save, and spend in real life, not just swipe and hope for the best. Learning happens naturally in the moment. Parents can set limits, see spending and money. real time and guide better habits along the way, all in one place without constant check-ins or

cash runs. Don't wait. Try Greenlight risk-free today at Greenlight.com slash try Greenlight. It's time to switch on the integrator units and get the brain cells working. You're listening to Hey, this promises to be fun. Investors Edge. The last bastion of quality programming. With Gary Coltbaum. It doesn't get better than this. And what's again to invest. So before we get into the final numbers, there's a lot of jello moving on the plate. And there's a bunch of things I want to bring up today, which kind of amazing. Do you know how I have said to you, be careful about owning no sales companies. And you do know that a ton of no sales stocks are down between 50 and 70% in just the last six weeks.

but we have also said to you, boy, we've missed some big moves in no sales companies, and we bring up biotech names all the time. We won't buy a no sales biotech. Merck, you know Merck. They just paid $221.50 a share for a company called Sedara Therapeutics, 9.2 billion in $1 billion in,000. In cash, in cash, Cedaria pharmaceuticals has been public since for 10 years with no sales. And Merck is buying them.

The stock was up 105% today to $217.67. Now, I'm reading here, valuing the transaction at $9.2.2 billion. But at the price the stock is at today, it's showing only 6.8 billion. Something's not right. Because if they're paying cash, it should be a lot closer to that number. Anyway, this company has no sales. And here's the amazing part about this. So we didn't own it.

The amazing part about this, Merck doesn't know as of yet. whether their products going to sell big time. You see, let me read this to you. CD38, I guess that's the name of their drug, acting strain agnostic antiviral in phase three for preventing influenza and high-risk individuals. The candidate, this company, does have breakthrough therapy

and fast-track designations and has showed efficacy in the phase 2B trial. Phase 1, phase 2, phase 3. So I gather Merck is smart enough to recognize, yeah, this thing is going to sell. But they're paying $9.2 billion in cash. They're going to have to sell a lot of this stuff. And then make a lot of money.

So just letting you know there is the other side of us saying to you, we're not going to buy any no-sale stuff. There is that other side. So, congratulations, if anybody has Sedara Therapeutics. Dang. And I'm going to have to look that up because it says here, $221 they're paying for in cash.

The stocks are $217, but I'm looking at shares outstanding, shares, I guess there may be some shares not being shown on my screen. Anyway, that's that one. The next thing I have to bring up, before we get to the final numbers that I think is really of imports, Bitcoin's getting smoked again today. It is now down. Let me see.

72 to 53, that's 19. Got to be about 24, 25% from the highs of about five weeks ago. And now the talk of the town is that micro strategy is causing a lot of problems that we have been complaining to you about the stock and to avoid it. Simple MSTR that's now called strategy. The stock has gone from 457 in July. It's now under 200. It was 543 last November. It's now 200.

That means it's down from the highs, what? 70%. 543? 65%. But Bitcoin's only down, not even close. In fact, Bitcoin is only down a little from last November. How can that be? Well, this micro strategy guy,

his name's sailor. It's not spelled sailor like Sailor on the Seas. Keeps leveraging to buy more Bitcoin. And then I read he's selling Bitcoin to do this. And then it looks like a, I don't know how to explain it. I'm wondering if the Bitcoiniters, Bitcoinites, are worried about forced, selling because of leverage.

Just letting you know. Just letting you know. Because today, the NASDAQ has had this unbelievable reversal. And typically you would see Bitcoin reverse with it, and it's trading near the lows of the day. The Bitcoin price, I only have the ETFs on my thing, but the Bitcoin price is currently 94,358 at this second. The high was 124,310.

So 28 on 1. Yeah, about let's call it 23, 24% from the highs. So just letting you know, and I have to tell you on this micro strategy, I don't know what's next. We've been telling you for a while, avoid something up. I'm thinking that the market, forget what anybody thinks, thinks that there's going to be some force selling because, look, I don't know the guy, but there are a lot of people calling what he's been doing as a scheme.

And all I know is when you are leveraged to the health in one asset, and that asset keeps going down, that's a problem you know it caused 2008 leverage leveraging those mortgage-backed securities 2008 the ass clowns back then were leveraging assets at 10 and 20 to 1 which guaranteed bankruptcy anyway next rest of the market whatever else this is the one only investors edge It's no use putting it off. The best time for an underwear refresh is now. Tommy John underwear is designed for a perfect fit that stays put all day.

Their zero-chafe thanks to four times more stretch than competing brands. And their innovative horizontal quick-draw fly is a game changer. With over 30 million pairs sold, there are thousands of men out there more comfortable than you. Don't settle for less. Go to Tommyjohn.com today for 25% off your first order with Code Comfort. That's Tommyjohn.com, Code Comfort. Tommy John. Comfort perfected. This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card.

Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card, what's in your wallet? Terms apply, lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details. This episode is brought to you by Spreaker, the platform responsible for a rapidly spreading condition known as podcast brain. Symptoms include buying microphones you don't need, explaining RSS feeds to confused relatives,

and saying things like, sorry, I can't talk right now, I'm editing audio. If this sounds familiar, you're probably already a podcaster. The good news is Spreker makes the whole process simple. You record your show, upload it once, and Spreaker distributes it everywhere people listen. Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and about a dozen apps your cousin swears are the next big thing. Even better, Spreaker helps you monetize your show with ads, meaning your podcast might someday pay for, well, more microphones. Start your show today at spreeker.com. Sprinker, because if you're going to talk to yourself for an hour, you might as well publish it.

Investors Edge. He's got to be pleased with that. The crowd is just on his feet here. He's a Cinderella boy. With Gary Colbomb. It comes highly recommended. You're going to feel better if you talk to him. And welcome once again to Investors Edge.

You can go look up Ron Barron, B-A-R-O-N. I was at the Barron Capital Confab at the Lincoln Center in New York City for a bunch of the day today. and I got to see CEOs of bond holdings but I got to mention one by the way the following company I'm about to mention we are not advocating

buying selling shorting or covering I saw the Shopify symbol SHOP and by the way we do not own the stock as of now so the CEO I thought the guy was terrific I thought it was a fantastic presentation.

I'm going to have to do a lot more research on the company. I mean, it's been a great stock through the years. Actually, it's just back to its night at 2021 highs. But before that, I mean, it's had a big move up. Very impressed. Very impressed. Also got to see, and I never didn't know from anything, this comedian Sebastian

Manna Magbath Blah Blaski or whatever his name is they bring on the different acts throughout the day I believe Shania Twain was there I didn't see that I picked the comedy

Sebastian Matt I don't know what his last name is and I think they have a headliner tonight but I don't know who it is anyway that's a sneeze I don't have a

a dump button because I'm on my iPhone right now. Anyway, very impressed. And you should look up Ron Barron. Brilliant. He's the opposite of what I do. I wish I can do what he does. He's owned Tesla for like forever and is up a billion dollars. They will hold through bull markets, bear markets, draw downs, you name it.

They are company specific. They don't care about bull and bear markets. God bless them. That's amazing. And they've got a hell of a track record. Good on them. So I'm going to spend the next few minutes on the 50-day moving average because of today. I want to repeat something to you.

They tell you cannot time the market. That's because they've never tried because you have to work at it. Not going to call them liars. we're just going to say they've never tried because you have to work at it. So, when you were looking at price and date on a chart, bull and bare markets trace out patterns, and very simple, patterns going up are good, patterns going down or bed, duh, duh, and throughout history and going back ages,

before there were a ton of mutual funds and hedge funds, the 50-day moving average consistently got defended in bullish phases. And as we have explained to you, the 50-day moving average, all it is is if you're plotting price on a piece of paper and each date price moves, the 50 day is the last 50 day closes you add it up divide by 50 and you get a smoothed outline

and in bull markets price ascends above an ascending 50 day moving average and all pullbacks to that area are contained and then price resumes the ascending. If the market weakens, there can be points in time where price gets below,

but just sits just below, sits around, hangs around, stays around, and then gets back above, and then breaks out again. But in bull markets, for the point of this, is that price keeps ascending along and all pullbacks are contained in and around there. We have proven it out and how do we prove it out? Well, we print out thousands and thousands

of pieces of paper of charts of stocks and sectors in markets in countries and commodities in bull markets. It's the one consistent characteristic of a bullish phase in the market. Simple as that. Full stop. The next part of that equation,

the longer it ascends along that 50 day, and the more it tests the 50 day and succeeds, the end problem is, it conditions the masses that the next time it's going to succeed again. but if the next time it breaks, the masses are not ready and do not believe and they get caught. We don't because we recognize that other part of the equation. The longer it holds and the more times it holds on visits, the more condition the masses are. and typically you're going later stage.

And that's because that entity had a very strong move up over a certain period of time. And if you've never seen one of our award-winning webcasts on the 50-day moving average, we from time to time will do special webcast going back to different bullish phases. And they all look the same. looking at a photo album for familiar faces, the 50-day moving average. And physically, what's happening there to do that? It's your big institutions, your big money crowd in recognition of those areas and acting to defend it until it can no longer be defended.

And that's when it becomes somewhat of a give-up. And that's when you break through the 50 day as things worsen. And then you go into a correction of import, if not a full-blown bare market. That's all it is. And do they collude together? Are they on the phone? No. They just all know throughout the years how things work.

They know what we know. That everybody says you can't do. And we're cool with that. That's the 50-day moving average. And then there's the 200-day moving average. And if you let it go down there, that means you really fell a long way. But that is really hell if you break the 200-day. For instance, and by the way, that's just the last 200 days added up divided by 200.

Oracle today, which just dropped from 322.5 down to 210 in five weeks, hit the 200-day moving average today within a buck and bounced up 12. Now that's a bare market though, and a bare market bounce. It's not ascending. It's a little recovery. But we also watch that also. there are other little moving averages. The traders will look at a 10.

A stronger moving average is the 21 because it's only the last 21 days, but that's only for the real strong. For me, it's always the 50 day. And there's a reason why we are bringing up the 50 day moving average again today. Because in case you do not know today, the NASDAQ right at the open today,

Hit 22835. 22835. Now I take that back. It hit 22436. My bad. Wait till you hear how it finished. Up next. That.

I'm Gary. This is the one only investors' edge. It's no use putting it off. The best time for an underwear refresh is now. Tommy John underwear is designed for a perfect fit that stays put all. day. Their zero-chafe thanks to four times more stretch than competing brands, and their innovative horizontal quick-draw fly is a game-changer. With over 30 million pairs sold, there are thousands of men out there more comfortable than you. Don't settle for less. Go to Tommyjohn.com today for

25% off your first order with Code Comfort. That's Tommyjohn.com code comfort. Tommy John, Comfort perfected. This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply. Lounge Access is subject to change. See Capital1.com for details. This episode is brought to you by Spreaker. The platform responsible for a rapidly spreading condition known as podcast brain. Symptoms include buying microphones you don't need,

explaining RSS feeds to confused relatives, and saying things like, sorry, I can't talk right now, I'm editing audio. If this sounds familiar, you're probably already a podcaster. The good news is Spreaker makes the whole process simple. You record your show, upload it once, and Spreaker distributes it everywhere people listen, Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and about a dozen apps your cousin's swears are the next big thing. Even better, Spreaker helps you monetize your show with ads, meaning your podcast might someday pay for, well, more microphones. Start your show today at spreeker.com.

Sprinker, because if you're going to talk to yourself for an hour, you might as well publish it. You're listening to. What are we waiting for? Well, what are you waiting for? One, two, ready, go. Investors Edge. With Gary Culper.

And what once again to Investor's Edge. Yeah, the people that love Trump are on TV, blaming Biden for the higher prices at the grocery store. I got news for you. They're right, but they're given no fault to Trump as usual, which means they're BSing you. Be careful. Okay, back on point. The NASDAQ today hit 22-436 in the morning after yesterday's heart. horrible drop. At 935 22436, 46, 464.

And 664 points below the close. The NASDAQ was down 434 points in the first five minutes today and finished up 30. You ready for this? The 50-day moving average is 22,000835. it closed at 229, 65 points above the 50 day moving average. They defended the NASDAQ today, which means they defended the NASDAQ 100, which hit 24534 closed at 25008. That means 460 points the NASDAQ 100 was down, finished up 143. and just above the 50-day moving average. But Gary, I thought institutions defend at the 50. How did they go below?

They defend the closes. Very often what happens is what is known as an undercut. It's undercuts. And typically the undercut happens early. The NASDAQ and the NASDAQ 100 were defended like no tomorrow. Now, I will tell you this at one point today, amazingly, the NASDAQ hit 23073, was up 203. So it gave back. To me, the important is what it got back.

But we're not done. What do we tell you the most important group is the Philadelphia semi-conveyor? conductor index today, which dropped seven to half points. The 50 day moving average, 6639. It hits 6587 in the morning, undercutting,

close strong at 6811, decently back above the 50 day. Which takes me to the most important stock to that area is NVIDIA. You ready for this? and video today finished up $3.31. Terrific. It hit a load today of 18058, closed at 1917.

So at one time today, at one time today, it was $9.50. It was down over $6. and reverse back above it. Do you know what Nvidia did last week? The exact same thing. So the most important semiconductor stock got defended. Also today, the big guns were out there. They were in recognition.

Does this hold? I'll let you know next week. We deal in real time here. A great defense today. in the market of the semis, NASDAQ, NASDAQ, NASDAQ 100, and the semis led by the number one stock.

And as long as that holds, good news. I take that back. Potential good news. And I say potential because on any drop, it causes damage in the market. Drops,

take pretenders or lessers off the table. And I can tell you I have a few dozen stocks that have broken the 50 day and now are living below the 50 day, moving average. Just letting you know. That's the story today. I call it a goal line stand. When I sent out my notes this morning, I had stated

look at this, look at that, look at this, look at that, look at this, look at that, look at that, look at this, look at that. But we are going to need a goal line stand right here and you got one today. For now, again. So another day where those big indices did not break below the 50 day at the close. So since late April, not one day have we had a close below by the big indices,

but we've now started to test them a little longer, a few more times, and eventually, as we said earlier, we'll get late stage, finally break it, we'll recognize it, the masses will not. I can promise you the masses today, sigh a relief. A big sigh relief in the market. Now, the Dow was down 300. I will tell you something that was interesting. The banks, which failed miserably yesterday, were not in great shape today.

Goldman Sachs down 14, J.P. Morgan down 6. The two most important names. That's a hum. Let me throw out also, MasterCardin Visa. really breaking down now, something we're going to be watching going into next week. So that's basically the story. I've got a lot of scanning to do. We'll see what comes of it. We hope you have a good weekend. Drive carefully. And when you get home, do like we do, quite simple. Make sure you hug your family. Make sure you hug your children. They will feel better.

You will feel better. I promise stay well, be well. Until Monday, peace out all. Good night. Edge with Gary Cult Bomb on BizTalk. To listen to past episodes or to get in contact with Gary, go to GaryK.com. That's GaryK.com. Guys, it's no use putting it off. The best time for an underwear refresh is now. Tommy John underwear is designed for a perfect fit that stays put all day.

Their zero-chafe thanks to four times more stretch than competing brands. And their innovative horizontal quick-draw fly is a game changer. With over 30 million pairs sold, there are thousands of men out there more comfortable than you. Don't settle for less. Go to Tommyjohn.com today for 25% off your first order with Code Comfort. That's Tommyjohn.com code comfort. Tommy John. Comfort perfected. This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect.

Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step close, to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply, lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details.