Investor's Edge with Gary Kaltbaum - THE WORST DAY

Episode Date: May 18, 2022

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Terms apply. Lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for detail. Investors Edge with Gary Coltbaum. Straight talk about you and your money. Now from the BizTalk Studios, here is Gary Cultbaum. So it is May 18, 2022. Today was probably the worst day I have seen in the market, in this bear market.

And as we told you, there are certain rules of bear markets. One of them is the surprises happen on downside. One of the rules are bear market rallies are sharp. They're quick. They make you feel good. They suck you in and bury you soon after. Rules of bear markets is you just never know how bad things are going to get. And when you think it's low, it goes lower.

Just like in bull markets, when you think it's high, it goes. higher. In March of 21, not March of 22, I don't remember the exact day, but I said to you these words, and I pretty much believe it's word for word. I said to you, going forward, you better start listening to our show every single day. Going forward, you better stay on top of things. Going forward, you're going to need to recognize that all the bubbles inflated will most likely pop, and it is what you're getting. We went on to say, the reason why you better be listening to us is because you will get no help

from Wall Street. Wall Street is a fully invested vehicle. Wall Street really doesn't work at it when comes to bare markets. Wall Street will call the bottom in bare markets every up day. Analysts will lower their targets and ratings on stocks after they're already down 75%. We went through a litany of things. this was back in March of 21. We also went on to say,

we have no idea how it plays out, but that it would play out. We went on to say we don't know which they're going to get first, but we do know what they are going to get. The next part of the equation that we said to you, and have been saying it dozens of times, in bare markets, they eventually get them all, In bare markets, anything that loses money is going to be absolutely crushed.

In bare markets, all the bubbles are going to pop like you wouldn't believe. In bare markets, you get the hint? Other things we had said to you, 90% of the coins will drop 90% or more with most going to zero. What else do we say to you? the hunks of junk, the short-squeased meme stocks would all be destroyed. Little did we know, though, and we did not know, when we started calling tops in name after name in the growth arena, did we know that as of just a week ago, 6% of the NASDAQ was down 90% percent. percent from the highs. Twenty-two percent, down 75 percent from the highs. Fifty percent down

fifty percent of the highs. We thought we would never see a 2000 to 2003 again. It's turning that into a piker. We meant every word. We have been regurgitating those words dozens of times since March of 21. It is not to pat ourselves on the back. It's to save your financial life. Why? Because the bubbles haven't popped. They've been destroyed.

The coins have not popped. They've been destroyed. Some coins overnight went down 98% that was supposed to be stable. and then today. So we were in the midst of what we call a counter-tren rally. We have told you that they have lasted anywhere between one and ten days during this bare market. As we came in today, we had no idea if it would continue higher because you really can't tell. What do we say to you?

need some more cards coming out of the deck. But what else we've saying to you? Regardless, there's no leadership in the market. The only relative strength are the energy stocks, the consumer staples. And we had mentioned to you how you're getting a little bit of relative strength at the bottom in a bunch of semiconductor names. Absin that, nothing but bare markets.

I'm going to read some numbers off to you that, as we always say to you again, in bare market, surprises happen to the downside. We have a cast iron stomach. We've seen everything. We were around for the 87 crash. We've seen flash crashes. We saw the 80% drop in the NASDAQ in 2000 to 2003. But wealth destruction, always, always. affects us because we know it affects you. Let me read some things to you. Target.

Target. No, no, no. Target on their earnings report was down $53.67 down to 161. Target, down 24.87% on 13 times average volume. What did that do to everything else? Well, Walmart, had a terrible day yesterday, down 15, right? Down another nine today. Walmart's gone from 140 to 122 in two days. No, it's got to be more than that. 148 to 122. Costco. Costco, in sympathy, down 61. Dillard's in sympathy down 56. Dollar Tree in sympathy down 22. Dollar General. and sympathy down 25. You want some more? BJ's wholesalers down 10 to 53 bucks.

What is that? About 16%. Decker's Outdoor down 17. Estee Lauder 13. Lowe's down 10. Home Depot down 16. They took the retail that was already in a bare market. We've been telling you to avoid

retail except the discount retailers. And then in the last week we told you they had topped. Actually in the last two weeks, well, target reported earnings. They missed by miles. Our biggest fears, our biggest fears have come to fruition. We have said to you what you're seeing in the market simply this. A market is a market. down. You know, if you go to a store and they have a hundred shirts to sell and they can't sell any, because they're not pop-p-p-p-p- They have to mark them down. So they mark them down 10%. Still nobody's buying. They mark them down another 10%. Still nobody's buying. They mark it down another 10%. That's exactly what you are saying.

But there's a rhyme and a reason to what you're saying. And I would just state for the record it is simplistic. Higher oil, higher interest rates, slackening of demand by the consumer, and a drop in the wealth effect. Up next, we'll explain more. I'm Gary. This is the one only Investors Edge. Hi, I'm Gary Kalpom, hosted a nationally syndicated radio show Investors' edge. We're not just handsome radio people. We manage investors' money for a living,

specializing in fee-based discretionary money management. No big commissions, just a fee on the assets that's managed. We also provide a full range of personalized services, including retirement planning, fixed income, and educational needs, all to assist you in achieving your financial goals. Understanding not all individuals have the same needs, we'll carefully evaluate your personal goals to determine a proper investment strategy. If you're a Your current approach to investing is not getting you to where you would like to be. Call us to make an appointment for a complimentary portfolio review. The number to call is 888-4-22-55-9.

That's 8-58-5-59. That's 888-4-22-55-59. Investment advisory services offered through call-bomb capital management. This message is brought to you by the Capital One VentureX card. offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card.

What's in your wallet? Terms apply, lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details. This episode is brought to you by Spreaker. The platform responsible for a rapidly spreading condition known as podcast brain. Symptoms include buying microphones you don't need, explaining RSS feeds to confused relatives, and saying things like, sorry, I can't talk right now, I'm editing audio. If this sounds familiar, you're probably already a podcaster.

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called bomb it doesn't get better than this and what once again to investors edge very simply this is the market being taken down a few pegs of valuation based on nobody's buying because of what they're seeing or what they've heard or what they're thinking based on at the highs they became over owned over loved and over leveraged. Based on the market has no belief in the credibility of those that are running this country. Based on real factors, target earnings were 87 cents less than expected, gargantuanness. Based on this and that and the other thing all having to do with, a slowdown and a tougher environment to make money, a toucher. toxic cocktail for markets. And notice I haven't even mentioned the Fed yet. They really, in my eyes, don't matter. They are under 1% with the year yield. The yield on the 10 year is just under 2.9%. They're not even on the playing field. But what they are doing is the opposite of what they were doing to help markets. And that's

that stupid moronic, easy money, dropping it from helicopters onto the economy, creating massive leverage and distortions while screwing every saver in this country. With no accountability and no oversight, how we got to the point where a select man and a few others, a select few people, have been able to get away with committing crimes of insider trading that we would go to jail for, but it's only ethically challenged for them and the ability to conjure up unimaginable, unimaginable amounts of money to do their bidding.

And the problem for the markets right now is the markets have eyes, they have ears. You know who that is? That are the big institutions that are having their portfolio meetings with their portfolio meetings, with their portfolio managers every morning and saying,

you know that Jay Powell's a schmuck and he has absolutely no clue what he's doing, sell some more. You know, Jay Powell is now tightening because he has to, not because he wants to, in a recession, sell some more.

The only proposals out of Joe Biden and Chuck Schumer and Nancy Pelosi raise taxes while we're in a recession. Sell more. There's no. nobody in the Republican Party that can help.

Sell more. And then you got the reality of what these companies are reporting. Real world slowdowns. Decelerations. Problems. Worried. Lower guidance. Again, all a toxic cocktail for markets.

And today, one of the worst days we, I think probably the worst we've seen in the bare market because they already got a ton of stuff. They're getting a lot more. So, today's nauseating market wrap is brought to by Investment-Dashmodels.com. That's Jim Moore back, one of the great market timers. No gray areas of the man you're either in or out of the market with his proprietary indicators. Go check it out. Investment-dash-models.com down 1164.

No, we're not making that up. You ready? United Health down 21. That one is held up better than most. Microsoft down 12. McDonald's down 10. Home Depot down 15. Those are your double digits. But you also have almost 10 in Procter and gamble. How can that be? We'll explain the second. Walmart another nine. Eight in Apple. Apple was down eight? Do you know Apple today was down $130 billion a market count? American Express, almost six, Boeing more than six, Salesforce.com, more than six, Chevron, four and a half, Caterpillar five, Disney more than four, Goldman Sachs more than six, DuPont more than two, Honeywell more than five, Intel more than two, IBM more than five, Johnson & Johnson more than three, J.P. Morgan, more than two, Coca-Cola more than four, Nike more than six, Travelers more than three, Visa more than four, Walgreens, more than three. And a few really didn't go down, but the everything was read. In big name, as we mentioned, Apple downy, Amazon 165, AMD 6, Adobe 11, Salesforce.com, 6, Facebook 10, Google 91, Microsoft 12, Nvidia, 12, Netflix 13, Oracle 3, it's $68 stock, Qualcomm 9, Tesla 51, and the Dow, 1164, the S&P 165, NASDAQ 566. NASDAQ, 635, the SOX, 150, and you ready for this one?

Transports, down 1,096 points. Why? Avis ran a car down 26. Expediters down 10, FedEx 17, J.B. Hunt, 16, Landstar, 13, Norfolk Southern, 14, UPS 11. Old Dominion Freight down 35. What the hell with that? And you know what else they did? What's our motto in bare markets?

Eventually they get them all. What area has held up very, very well? Where have the new highs been? Well, it's been energy and what else? Consumer staples. But under the heading of eventually they get them all, you ready for this? Hershey's down 17.

McCormick, 12. Smuckers 15. And a bunches of four, fives, and six, in Cisco, Post, Mondalys, Kimberly Clark, Kraft Hines, Kellogg's, Coke, General Mills, Campbell Soup. They came after them. Under the heading of, they get them all.

They came after the commodities, which a lot of them are already bearish. But you know what hasn't been bearish? But wobbly, oils. They hit those today. Not as bad as most. But overall, plain, old, gross. Up next.

We'll do more. We ain't kidding. I'm Gary. This is the one only investor's edge. This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit. for less than you expect.

Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply, lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details. This episode is brought to you by Spreaker.

The platform responsible for a rapidly spreading condition known as podcast brain. Symptoms include buying microphones you don't need. explaining RSS feeds to confused relatives, and saying things like, sorry, I can't talk right now, I'm editing audio. If this sounds familiar, you're probably already a podcaster. The good news is Spreaker makes the whole process simple. You record your show, upload it once, and Spreaker distributes it everywhere people listen, Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and about a dozen apps your cousin swears are the next big thing.

Even better, Spreaker helps you monetize your show with ads, meaning your podcast might someday pay for, well, more Microsoft. microphones. Start your show today at spreeker.com. Spreaker, because if you're going to talk to yourself for an hour, you might as well publish it. This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide.

The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply. Lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details. We're listening to. America is talking. Investors Edge.

He's got to be pleased with that. The crowd is just on his feet here. He's a Cinderella boy. With Gary Coltbaum. It's highly recommended. You're going to feel better if you talk to him. And I tell you what will not be a help. Cisco systems still in the Dow really shouldn't be. Intel shouldn't be in the Dow either.

Cisco closed at 48 and change. It's at 40 in the aftermarket, misnumbers, lowered guidance. Simple as that. That won't help technology no more. You do remember what we told you about, what about six, eight weeks ago? Lenovo, Dell, Eulid Packard, three top PCs. Inventory was up 44%. How can that be if there's bad supply chains? Oh, demand dropped off a cliff. Why would that be? Well, because everybody and everybody bought a PC or a laptop during COVID and did not need anymore.

And they ended up with massive inventory. And that be a problem. You know what a bigger problem for the market is? You're ready for this? Dow's only down 13.3% from the highs. S&P's down 17.7. The Russell's down 21. Nasdaq's down 27.

What's my guesstimate? NASDAX 35, easy. And everything else a lot more. Being masked by select few stuff. I have nothing redeeming to say. I have nothing good to say. The nascent, the nascent bear market counter-trend move lasted four days. And it is a holy crap moment.

It is a holy crap moment what the retail stocks did today. We don't own any, but we're stunned. We're absolutely stunned.

What's going on? Now a brutal bare market of epic proportions. Screw the indices and I will tell you if they start sending S&P into the mid-20s, NASDAQ's going to be 40.

We would say you've been warned, but you've been warned. Way in advance of all this. Now, what don't you want to do? Is listen to Wall Street. You do know what's happening now, right? The people that have been bullish all the way down that are still talking to you, they've got to do something. You know what that is, right?

right? They got to start reporting the news in order to be right, even though all they're doing is reporting the news. I heard somebody who has been bullish all the way down. Oh, we're in recession. Oh, really? No kidding. Thanks for telling us. Oh, it's very bearish out there. No kidding. What we don't understand are the ones that are telling you. Well, buy here and if it goes lower, buy more? Well, if you think it's going lower, why would you buy here? So again, you will get no help from Wall Street. They tell you not to be in cash because you'll get eaten up by inflation. Oh, so go buy some stocks and see what happens there. That'll be good for you. Now, as you know, we outlined a major bust many moons ago. We outlined it for you. Based on one simple thing,

they printed 30 trillion bucks create a massive distortions, massive leverage that has to be unwound one day and when it is, it just makes things so much worse. We told you to read the book Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds. It explains it all. Oh, it explained it all.

Bubbles popped everywhere and now they're getting the popular indices that finally make it more apparent. I plead with you. Pay no attention to Wall Street. They are being murdered. They are making excuses. They are trying to BS their way out of this

while they're fully invested and getting blasted. You know what we mean when we say bust. It is not a reach. We even said to you, well if the average stock is down the NASDAQ 35% and the NASDAX's only down

22 shouldn't eventually play catch-up and then if the average stock in the NASDA goes down 50%, catch my drift and I can't begin to tell you well a stable coin drop

or whatever 98%. I don't even know the whatever they are the naked man is always found out when the tide goes out. And all the BS artists on the coins, all the touts, all the shouts are still touting and shouting you. I saw one yutz on TV saying, oh, the Bitcoin's gone to 250,000. I would like to kick him in the nuts. So this is the unwind of an unaccountable, no oversight, whims of one man and his lemmings. that follow them off the cliff.

And unfortunately, we end up the victims. As always, going forward, what are we going to do? Pay attention to price. Tell you what's leading. Tell you what's lagging. What we would avoid. With no agenda, no ulterior motive, no bias. Just stay one step ahead or in life.

lockstep and we'll be fine. I heard some people today saying you should start by now and just average down because nobody can pick the bottom. They're lying. If we were that good at walking you through the process of topping of the bull market, wait to you see what we do when the bottom of the bear market starts going through its process. we can promise you that process has not started and with today's vicious unwind of some very important retailers all bets are off on whether we are close

to bottom up next we'll think of something I'm Gary this is the one investors' venture. This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply. Lounge access is subject to change.

Capital One.com for details. This episode is brought to you by Spreaker, the platform responsible for a rapidly spreading condition known as podcast brain. Symptoms include buying microphones you don't need, explaining RSS feeds to confused relatives, and saying things like, sorry, I can't talk right now, I'm editing audio. If this sounds familiar, you're probably already a podcaster. The good news is Spreaker makes the whole process simple. You record your show, upload it once, and Spreaker distributes it everywhere people listen,

Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and about a dozen apps your cousin swears are the next big thing. Even better, Spreaker helps you monetize your show with ads, meaning your podcast might someday pay for, well, more microphones. Start your show today at spreeker.com. Spreaker, because if you're going to talk to yourself for an hour, you might as well publish it. This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect.

Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply, lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details. You're listening to.

What are we waiting for? Well, what are you waiting for? One, two, two, Ready go. Investers Edge with Gary Culpa. And welcome once again to Investors Edge. So no stone was left to turn today. They came after the staples with viciousness.

But Gary, I thought the staples hold up because they're recession resistant. Well, they do. Until they don't. What everybody has to remember, stocks are stocks. And what people need to get out of more stock, when institutions have to get out of more stock, have to get out of more stock, where do they go in a bare market? What's holding up eventually?

That's where my line is. eventually they get them all and they're doing it they've now got the commodities a bunch of oils not all and there's not many stones left

got a smattering of a few names not worth even mentioning because they'll get them too what else Twitter's down to 3685 that deal's not I don't think it's happening at any price. That's a guess. But so far, our good guess, on no chance of 54, 50, 45, 40, that's been a good guess. What else is happening? Absolutely no help from central bankers that don't shut up. They're now shown to be egomaniacal twits that are trying to prove their worthiness

when they've been miserable failures by not shutting up. They're all predicting what's going to happen the next year even though they missed everything in the last year. You would think somebody

that went zero for 100 would get out of the game or at least just shut up. They don't. And we're now, this second, in the worst of all worlds. Why do I say this second?

We're still dealing with the whims of a select few people. Who knows? Maybe tomorrow they come up with the right thing to do. Unfortunately, it's past that point. Gas is now hit $4 in all 50 states, a huge tax on the investing public. Yet the Marxist party, blames the oil companies.

They blame the gas station owners, even though they make all their money on bottled water and make pennies on gas. Harry Truman once had a sign on his desk the buck stops here. The sign on Biden's desk is the buck stops everywhere else but here. Every day it's somebody else's fault,

but them, even though they're running the country. As I have told you, I've never been more optimistic on us. I've never been more pessimistic on them. And the only good news I have to offer is we're in gridlock right now. Thank you, Joe Manchin and Kristen Cinema,

and we'll be in gridlock for two years of November. Maybe you'll throw in some executive orders, but they will not be earth-shaking or earth-shattering. As always, I have no idea what tomorrow brings. Except I will tell you. your Cisco is getting smacked in the aftermarket, and that'll probably affect technology stocks again tomorrow. Big networker, you were warned.

We take no joy in this. We'd rather if the market go up. But we outline this for you way in advance, and the only thing where we change a little is when we say we think A-Lo may be put in, and we'll get a counter-trend trend rally, but it will not change the big picture. This little counter-trend rally lasted four days.

I was quite anemic. Futures are down in the aftermarket because of Cisco. I have no idea how we'll open tomorrow. But I gather Asia and Europe is not going to like today's action. Where it stops, I don't know. The main trend remains down. And we ask you not to fight it. If anything changes, we will let you know.

But the market gave you the four-day rally the big middle finger today. Under no uncertain terms. And as we said at the outset, we are stunned at what they did to their retailers here. And just remember, that's just not price going down. That is the big institutional money talking. And they're pretty darn smart. Have a great evening, everybody. Sorry to harsh your buzz.

Drive carefully. And when you get home, do like we do, quite simple. Make sure you hug your children. Hug your family. They will feel better. You will feel better. I promise. I'll be on with Fox Business between noon and two tomorrow.

And until this time, tomorrow, peace out all. Bye, bye. This has been Investor's Edge with Gary Cult, on BizTalk. To listen to past episodes or to get in contact with Gary, go to Garyk.com. That's GaryKK.com. This message is brought to you by the Capital One VentureX card. VentureX offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer

to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over. 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply. Lounge access is subject to change. See Capital1.com for details.