Investor's Edge with Gary Kaltbaum - THEM BANKS AGAIN

Episode Date: May 4, 2023

Follow Gary on GaryK.com or http://garykaltbaum.com

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Investor's Edge with Gary Kaltbaum. Straight talk about you and your money. Now from the BizTalk Studios, here is Gary Kaltbaum. And welcome once again to Investors Edge. I'm Gary Kaltbaum, your host day. Thanks of being with us today. Glad you here, ladies and gentlemen, happy that you are listening. I know it's May the 4th be with you.

May 4th, 2020. They killed the Star Wars franchise though. Too many. And these last few people that were star, I just didn't do much for me. Sorry. Sorry. Anyway, happy May the 4th.

And again, may the 4th be with you. Ladies and gentlemen, nothing has changed. There are moments in time where there is nobody more valuable to you than us. And this is one of those moments in time. Our A, ability to read the tape, as well as what I consider to be logical thought, well, let me go through a few.

Pack West, down $3.25 today to $3.17. cents down 50.62%. Western Alliance Bank Corp. Down $11.40 today to $18.17. Down 38.55%. And let me be clear, these are good companies. These are good regional banks

that have been caught up in the maelstrom of asinine, assa ten, ASA 11, policy that distorted everything and created the potential for what we are seeing.

Pack West has said all but saying we're up for sale. And you know why they're saying that? It's simple. They're saying it because writing is on the wall. Remember what we have told you. Remember what we have said. Watch the stock prices. They'll tell you everything you need to know. Oh, they've been talking. Best guess. Oh, I'm sorry, the Regional Bank Index was down another 5.6% today to another multi-year low.

And by the way, that was off the early lows. Pack West at one time today hit two. $2.48. Western Alliance hit, is that right? I got to double check that. Western Alliance hit $11.35 before they came out and stated unequivably, we ain't selling. The problem is do they get forced to sell? We hate what we're seeing. We expect there's going to be more. there were a bunch of 6 and 10% drops in regional banks today but I must tell you they're coming after the big ones also J.P. Morgan the job of the hut of banks that stock is gone from the day they bought First Republic for a song 143 to 134 which is a 104. which is a tiptoe through the tulips compared to the rest.

But still, not immune. I do not know where this stops. I do not know where it ends. I have to believe that the government that caused this will come up with something, but it's not going to help. You know what I heard today? Listen to this one. I heard today somebody

begging. I'm not going to mention who, very famous hedge fund guy, that the government has now got to guarantee all deposits. And I'm saying to myself, didn't they already do that? Didn't they already come out and basically make the statement

that nobody's going to lose a dime in deposits? Huh. So let me explain banks to you since Jay Powell and Janet Yellen have no understanding of banks because they have said that our banking system is sound and resilient.

This is what they said. While three banks have gone under, and by the way, the total of those three banks are bigger than what happened in 2008, a bank is only a bank because of the deposits. If the deposits flee, the bank is over and done.

That's how it goes. A bank is a bank. A public bank is a public bank is only as good as their stock price. So we have been telling you, watch the stock price. It'll speak volumes about A, the company and industry. That's all. We hope you listened. We have been clear, concise, and to the point that there be no way, shape, or form would we bet a dime of our money on any smaller bank? And we say that without indicting them. We're just here talking about market conditions. I repeat, these are good banks. They've done right by their consent. customers in the deposits for ages, they have been caught up in the maelstrom of folly policy by the people who run this country. And now they've set it up even worse. They've set it up

even worse. J.P. Morgan, the job of the hut, and I don't say that in a pejorative way. Notice the big word. The job of the hut of banks doesn't have to negotiate with these banks. doesn't have to look for them to buy them. They can just sit and wait to the next one goes under or gets close to. In other words, they're on the morphine drip and then meet with their buddies at the government. Hey, we'll take it. Do you know J.P. Morgan and their buyer of First Republic, their real estate losses were guaranteed by our government, which means you and I guarantee J.P. Morgan's real estate losses from First Republic.

You and I. That's what's going on. Will there be trading opportunities in them? Hell yes. You get one good announcement. I mean, heck, Pac West out of nowhere can go from what to close at? 317 today and go to 450 tomorrow. No, we're not predicting that. That would be 45%. It would still be down 99%. And would we do that?

Hell no. Heck no. And yes, pretty much all the financials have been caught up. Another one called First Horizon was down 33.55% today. It went down $5.5.5 down to $10. It was $24.90 at the beginning of March. What happened? In March of 22, TD Bank Group offered $13.4 billion in cash at $25 a share. Guess what happened? There's no more deal. Simple as that. Deal gone. Bye-bye. Deal over. Price wins. And there's your story.

So as always, we do not tell you what to do. Buy, sell, shorter cover. We tell you what we think. It's your money. You get to decide. You know what we think. Notwithstanding bounces. I'm Gary.

This is the one only Investor's Edge. Market wrap up next. Hi, I'm Gary Kalbaum, hosted a nationally syndicated radio show, Investors Edge. We're not just handsome radio people. We manage investors' money for a living. specializing in fee-based discretionary money management. No big commissions, just a fee on the assets that's managed. We also provide a full range of personalized services,

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It's time to switch on the integrator you have. and get the brain cells working. You're listening to. Hey, this promise is to be fun. Investors Edge. The last bastion of quality programming. With Gary Coltbaum. It doesn't get better than this.

And welcome once again to Investors Edge. Apple is going to be reporting soon. I think we'll still be taping the show before Apple reports. Just so you know, estimates are. to be down in the mid-teens for both earnings and sales. If I know Apple, they will beat the numbers. Every dollar Apple moves is $16 billion of market cap.

Well, it's now $15.8 billion of market cap. It's a, what a story. What a story. What an amazing success story. Do you know what Apple's market? cap is right now. You're ready for this. 2.6 trillion dollars. They do a trailing four quarters, 182,

70, 370, 387 billion in revenues. Unbelievable. They made in the last four quarters, 272, 372, 372, five, let's call it seven dollars a share times 15. Oh, they make over $100 billion in earnings. Unbelievable. What a story. And I was worried about Tim Cook when he took over for Steve Jobs.

I'm a dufus. I was really worried. How are you going to replace Steve Jobs? That's all I was thinking. Anyway, we'll let you know. hearing a lot of people saying, unfortunately, oh, if Apple comes out good and it's up, it's going to save the market. I can promise you. Well, no, I can't promise a guarantee.

I take it back. My industry can't do that. I believe Apple cannot save the oils, defense stocks, manage care. Most auto is not Ferrari. Just about all the retail, airlines, a lot of the transports, insurance, the financials, for sure, a lot of the economically sensitive, a lot of the semiconductors, but it can help itself, suppliers, it can help also. We're always careful about that type of talk.

while it matters, it was about almost 13% NASDAQ 100, 7% of the S&P. To that extent, it really does matter. I'd just be careful. Also had to mention this. Lyft just reported numbers. The stock closed at $10.69. It's now $9.55. The stock has gone from, well, came public at $70.

opened at 88 it's now uh $9.55. Uh, the high in 21 was 65 bucks make it 68. It's now $9 and whatever in the aftermarket. But Uber stock has had a nice little move here on their numbers. Interesting. Huh? Lift in Uber they do the same thing right last I looked. Now I do know Uber's in some other businesses, but I think they're getting rid of those businesses, aren't they? I'm always interested, you know, when we give you the example, the Kmart versus Target here in Lake Mary, Florida, always interested in pairing things up, just letting you know. So again, the story of the day was the banks, but just we did a webcast today. I got some things to do after the market. The webcast we did about 1.32 o'clock today was just all the misery in the market.

I can't begin to tell you, with the S&P and the Dow just touching the 50-day moving average, at the close today, there was 731 New Yearly lows on the New York and NASDAQ. You know what that means? That's a lot of stocks. I heard somebody say, yeah, but it's a lot of the regionals. Oh, yeah, that makes it worse. the pipes of the country, regional banks that hold a lot of real estate, commercial real estate, who knows what else?

So underneath the surface, it rates a big wow. While we've explained to you, we have explained to you under no uncertain terms how seven stocks are 51% of the NASDAQ 100 and about 23% of the S&P, that crap matters. And they better keep those seven stocks in good stead. And the good news is they are. Five of them are. Four of them are. Two of them are hanging in there.

So I got really nothing great to tell you here. Tonight, our other webcast will be, hey, what's working? But we just know, one of my favorite stocks that I don't own, M-E-L-I-M-A-M-Cato Libre, opens up 55 bucks on earnings today. Closed down 80. Don't want to see that. Booking holdings, the old price line, been acting pretty darn well. It's down 150 bucks in the aftermarket.

Don't want to see that. But we'll await Apple and see what happens. Today's market wrap brought to you by Investment-Dashmodels.com. That's Jim Rohraback, one of the great market timers. No gray areas with the man you're either in or out of the market. But his proprietary indicators, go check it out. Investment-dashmodels.com. Another 286 could have been worse.

The Dow today at the low was 32-937-190. We were down 4-76. You know what happened today. When you have a chance, go look at the Dow and go look with the 50-day moving averages. Let's see. We closed at 32-937. 50-day moving average. Excuse me, we closed at 33-127. 50-day is 330-7. We finished about 33027. We finished about 3.3-127. We closed it. 51 points above the 50 day after being 100 and something below. You think the institutions weren't watching? The S&P's a little stronger than the Dow. Never got to the 50 day, but let's just say it hit 40-48.

50-day is 40-39. You don't want that being taken out, though underneath the surface is worse. S&P down 29.5, NASDAQ, 59 and was holding up great all day. NASDAQ 100 down 48 was holding up great all day. Towards the end of the day,

it was a little more icky, but still holding up much better. Semiconductor's down 16. Transports 180. The transports have been trading like a penny stock. But overall, the trend down. Up next, more of them numbers. And news of the day.

This is the one only investors at. At CVS, it matters. that we're not just in your community, but that we're part of it. It matters that we're here for you when you need us, day or night, and we want everyone to feel welcomed and rewarded. It matters that CVS is here to fill your prescriptions and here to fill your craving for a tasty and, yeah, healthy snack. At CBS, we're proud to serve your community, because we believe where you get your medicine matters. So visit us at cvs.com or just come by our store. We can't wait to meet you. you. Store hours vary by location.

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It comes highly recommended. You're going to feel better if you talk to him. And welcome once again to Investors Edge. Thanks for being with us today. Advanced declines 1227 on New York, 1625 on the NASDAQ, which stands out for me is 731 new yearly lows. But it really does tell you, and I'm sure when I look, there will be a bunch of small financials, but they all count. They all matter. And by the way, not so small financials are also at new yearly lows. PNC Bank. Now they only do 714, a 25 billion plus in revenue. That's a new yearly low.

$25 billion in revenue. Make that a two-year low on the PNC Bank. So we'll just repeat. We wouldn't temp fade on the smaller banks, and the big banks are no great checks. Bank of New York, Bank America, I think, is a closing low of the year. Close the 2699, 2679 closed March 23rd. But it's right there. Bank of New York, almost. This ain't no hill for a climber kids. That's all I can tell you.

And the patterns. You know, we talk about a roadmap here. The patterns are just gross. Gold had another decent day. Off the highs, but another decent day. Housing finally pulling in right now, and that's because, you know, market's not helping. I will tell you more names that had held up going by the wayside. And what do we mean? by that. Well, they were within 5, 10% of their highs and above the 50 day moving average, and they then crack the 50 day moving average and on volume. Just more and more and more and more and more and names. More and more and more and more and more, which means fewer and fewer stocks are helping. That's the best way I can put it. And as I'm going through the aftermarket reports, Got some more blow-ups, a couple of good gaps to the upside.

But overall, we call it mushy and messy. What are my worries? Well, guess who's running the show? Those are the worries. Guess what he did yesterday. He raised rates. What have we been telling you about rates? that the real world of rates is much lower than he is.

What did we tell you he did back when inflation was heating up? Rates were much higher than he was. And it took a while for him to play catch-up. And now that he's played catch-up, now that he's played catch-up, he's now way above the yield on the 10 year close today at 3.35 he isn't now 5

dash 5 and a quarter and all he's got to do is listen to the markets and they just refuse what have we told you and we have been right the market is a lot smarter than him simple as that a lot smarter than him

market knows everything. You know what that is? That's the smart money knowing where things should be based on reality. Jay Powell is the interloper, the interferer, plain God. And he was too low on the inflation front because he's an easy money adult. And now he's the tough guy when the market's screaming the other way. Remember, yields went from zero up to one to two and he just sat there. The three, and he just sat there.

Talked him and Biden and yelling transitory. And finally, uh-oh, he's at a raise rates. And he started with a quarter point, and that didn't work. So boom, half point, half point, half point, three. He had a catch up. And he's got it wrong again. He's got it wrong again. He should not have raised rates yesterday.

And here's what's going to happen. Write this down. In the near future, he will be forced to lower rates if markets keep going down, if yields keep coming down, and if the economy suffers. And odds favor with the 10-year yield at 3.35 and the three-month treasury at 5.25, that is what is known as an inverted yield. yield curve. Go look up these words. The inverted yield curve predicting recessions and go look at the record and go look at how wide this one is. Now there are others that say, well, it's really, you've got to measure the one year versus the 10 year or the two year. I couldn't care less. That doesn't matter to me. The shortest yield three month is.

way up there. And as you go out, yields come down. It should be the opposite in the real world. The longer you go out, the more yield you're supposed to get, but the market is saying otherwise. Simple as that. And that's not good news. The one-year yield right now, 466, still way above. the two-year yield 376 still above definitely not as much the two-year yield

spiked the 5% in March before coming down we'll let the market always decide always will let the market decide always let the market decide we'll see what happens

hey Apple is reported at first blush, I've got Apple on the day up $3.50 as I speak. But in the aftermarket, up foreign change. I take it back. For the day, Apple's now only up a buck 25. It's moving along, moving around. Now it's flat on the day. This will be fun. Anyway, we'll have a little bit of time to go through the aftermarket and the reaction to Apple. Again, we have absolutely no clue where it ends up. I have not seen their numbers yet, but I gather they are out. And of course, they will have a conference call where they mention artificial intelligence 47 times.

Make that 87 times. Apple beat by 9 cents. Beat on revenue. Simple as that. Apple, $1.52 versus last year's $1.52. Earnings were flat year over year. Revenues. Apple, 92.84 versus, I want to make sure this is right.

Oh, 94.84 versus last year, 97.3. So revenues were still down, but beat by $2 billion. And there's your Apple. This second in the aftermarket up $2.60 for the day, up a buck. How's that for real time? And it's going to move around all over the place. And again, they'll mention artificial intelligence several hundred times. I just upped it in the conference call and we'll see what that does.

And that's all. Up next. Oh, we got news of the day. this is the one only investors edge. At CVS, it matters that we're not just in your community, but that we're part of it. It matters that we're here for you when you need us, day or night, and we want everyone to feel welcomed and rewarded.

It matters that CBS is here to fill your prescriptions and here to fill your craving for a tasty and, yeah, healthy snack. At CBS, we're proud to serve your community because we believe where you get your medicine matters. So visit us at cvs.com or just come by our store. We can't wait to meet you. Store hours vary by location. Success starts with your drive,

and American Public University is here to fuel it. With affordable tuition and over 200 flexible online programs, APU helps you gain the skills and confidence to move forward. Whether you're changing careers, starting fresh, or pursuing a lifelong passion, our programs are designed for people who never stop. You bring the fire, APU will fuel the journey. Learn more at APU. APUS.edu.

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That's Tommyjohn.com, code comfort. Tommy John, comfort perfected. You're listening to. What are we waiting for? Well, what are you waiting for? One, two, ready, go. Action! In the Wester's Edge.

With Gary Culpa. All right. And we'll keep doing this until the close. Apple's up $1.30 on the day with earnings and inclusive of today. up $3 in the aftermarket. By the way, $3 is $48 billion in market cap, that $47 billion. In the news, let's see how much I can get through. Super Mario becomes the first billion-plus film of 2003.

Super Mario Brothers. I don't get it. I haven't seen the movie. I'm going to have to study that. It's Super Mario Brothers. Good on them. Well done. In the news, Michelle Obama. I have nothing but compliments for her. She's starting a food and drink company aimed at fighting childhood obesity. You know what a lot we do with the Boys and Girls Clubs of Central Florida? We talk nutrition a lot. Good on her. I'm going to have to read up more about it.

But anybody who's front and center like that that could affect change in young children on obesity, child obesity. Good job. We love that. Well done, Michelle Obama. Big time. I'm going to keep that up and read that later. Anybody hear of Multnomah County? Oh, it's another one of those counties in Oregon. You ready for this? Okay, you voters. On May 16th, Multnomah County voters will cast their ballots in a special election to decide the fate of a measure imposing a point-s. 75% less than 1% capital gains tax to provide legal representation for tenants facing eviction. It would be the only jurisdiction in the world to have two capital gains taxes. What the hell is going on in Oregon? What the hell is going on in Colorado?

Here's a good one. Colorado Teachers Union passes a resolution to. declaring capitalism inherently exploits children in public schools. I don't even know what to say. Are these people communists? Capitalism exploits children, public schools, land and labor. Capitalism creates everything. It's an open door for people to become anything they want to be in life

if they apply themselves and educate themselves and work hard. way to go Colorado in the news speaking of that San Francisco just let you know in the news I thought this was interesting

a 300 million dollar San Francisco office tower mostly empty was worth around 300 million in 2019 it's now going

fire sale they're expecting to come in at 60 million oh that's an 80% drop 612 8th and 12 yeah that's right my rusty abacus says so

San Francisco. And you can't blame that all on crime. It's definitely the COVID thing. In the news, I had to read this one. Trump picked an EV loser in Lordstown Motors, just so you know. Lordstown was what a bunch of these EV startups that we warn you about came out as a SPAC, blank check company. Launched at 2018.

The electric truck maker had little experience manufacturing vehicles. It was a guarantee to go to nine. Nothing. Yet, good old Donald Trump berated the GM CEO, Mary Barrow, for shutting down a Chevy cruise plant in Los Town, Ohio, forced Ms. Barrow from GM to provide Lordstown Motors a $40 million loan to retrofit the plant for them. In 2020, Mr. Trump yelled and screamed about the prototype of one of their cars or trucks, whatever. blah, blah, blah, blah, and blah, blah, and blah, blah, and blah, Lordstown made its debut in 2020. It's stock searched the 26 bucks. It's now 40 cents. And I just want to let you know they delivered 31 vehicles since day one. Most have been recalled.

I had to bring up Trump because we have to make sure you understand both parties suck. Remember, Trump also wanted Jay Powell to print. money and take rates down to zero. Want me to continue? Have I thrilled you yet? Have I thrilled you yet? Did I tell you about a gentleman by the name of Burr? Burr.

Oh, it's just another one of these. How do I put this? Senator Richard Burr got private information on COVID in February of 2020, February 11th. On February 12th, he sold 83% of his equity. And then he called his family to sell everything. I'm not going to mention who, but certain regulators who looked it over. Close the investigation and said, nothing here. Rules for thee, not for me.

You and I go to jail for what Senator Byrd did. And by the way, we're reporting to you. We're not making it up. Nobody can sue us. This is what happened, and this is what happened. U.S. history scores for eighth graders plunge. Latest test results continue in nearly a decade-long decline for eighth graders. Hmm.

But a lot of these places don't want charter schools that have shown much, much better grades. Why would they do that? Why give a crap about the kids? Oh, that's right. We would have absolutely no control of the kids if they went to charter schools, and they're not under our union label. You know, the union. We're now eighth grade history standards suck.

Plunged. Do you see this being reported today? Only by a select few people. And that's our news of the day. Apple, which was just 169.5. I have it at 167. It is only up a buck 20 in the aftermarket and is down 57 cents today.

So a non-event at this point in time, of course, they'll have a conference call, and we'll see what the outcome is later. You all have a great evening drive carefully. We wish we had better news for you. Really do. Tomorrow, I'll be on with Cavuto noon hour. Fox Business Network. And until tomorrow, same time, radio show. Have a great evening, drive carefully.

When you get home, do like we do, make sure you hug your children. They'll feel better, I promise. Have a great night, everybody. Stay well, be well. Bye-bye. This has been Investor's Edge with Gary Cult. bomb on Biz Talk. To listen to past episodes or to get in contact with Gary, go to GaryK.com. That's GaryK.com.

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