Investor's Edge with Gary Kaltbaum - Them Semis [03.06.2024]
Episode Date: March 6, 2024https://garykaltbaum.com/...
Transcript
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Investor's Edge with Gary Coltbaum.
Straight talk about you and your money.
Now from the BizTalk Studios, here is Gary Cultbaum.
And welcome once again to Investors Edge.
I'm Gary Coltbaum, your host day.
Thanks for being with us today.
Glad you're here, ladies and gentlemen, happy that you are listening.
It's Wednesday, March 6th.
The day after Super Tuesday, in our eyes, nothing really super about it.
We'll get to that in a minute.
But first, if you do not get this radio show in your city, we'll post it at garyk.com.
We'll also post it on our Twitter feed, which is now X.
And if you don't follow us on Twitter, you should go to Twitter, which is now X, and put our name in.
You can email me, just be nice.
We also will post it all the podcast apps.
So check us out.
And in case you do not know, this is serious talk about everything that affects you with your markets, the economy, jobs, unemployment, taxes, deficit,
It's spending, scam, shams, corruption, you name it, we cover it.
And of course, now the election.
The chalk won.
As of this second, Donald Trump will be the representative of the Republican Party.
I call it the Republican Party for them being an accomplice to a 34 trillion of,
debt amongst other little things versus Joe Biden, the current president, where I continue to
believe I give it more than 50% that he will not make it.
And I say that because my father is 92 years old and is so much more on the ball than this
man that's running the country.
And if you notice, they don't have him out a lot.
He didn't do the Super Bowl interview.
He doesn't want to do debate.
We'll see.
But let's assume it will be Donald Trump versus Joe Biden.
As you know, I can take both and leave both.
They have both proven to be, ew, whether it's Trump still claiming he won the last election,
and that's just for starters, or Biden.
who, I don't even know where to start how bad this man is.
Nothing personal, but I'd say all this to his face.
He supersized our debt and deficits, guaranteeing us even more gargantuan numbers than we've already had.
And on purpose, the border?
What a bull crap artist.
We thought Trump was bullcrap.
Trump's nothing compared to Biden.
By the way, he had the House and Senate when he started, didn't he?
Could have done anything.
Did nothing on the border.
Got rid of the most important restrictions.
Did nothing for three years.
Said, it's not a crisis, not a crisis, not a crisis, not a crisis.
And then the poll numbers come out that the most important election,
most important election worry going forward.
What people are going to be voting on is the border and immigration.
And all of a sudden, oops, it's a crisis.
And by the way, it's all the Republicans' fault.
Bull crap artist.
But here's what we are going to do going forward.
The slate is clean.
We start today.
We move forward into the election.
We will still call them out.
We will still compliment if they do things right.
They come up with a good policy.
We'll let you know.
We'll, if we think they're lying, we'll let you know.
We pull no punches here.
And as always, ladies and gentlemen, you get to decide.
But just remember, we're not in anybody's tank.
We have no bias.
We lost any emotion or feeling for any politician at this juncture.
We think they have all let us down.
We believe we are nothing more than their slush fund, some worse than others.
We are their slush fund.
They are using us like there's no tomorrow.
Last 12 months, $2.7 trillion added to our debt.
Some people are out saying every 100 days now there's going to be a trillion.
We'll see.
I think that's a little over the top, but we'll see.
Where's the money going? No account.
You know, I'm not against Ukraine, helping them out.
But I believe we've now given them $110 billion.
Interesting.
How come there was an emergency for our homeless people with that money?
Anybody want to answer that question?
How are we spending billions and billions on migrants coming here illegally,
but not on our own homeless and our veterans?
Somebody want to answer that?
I ask logical questions.
They're very simple.
This is Joe Biden, and it's unforgivable.
and I hate to say this
because who he's up against
I want him out
but that means we get Trump for four years
only four in case you did not know
and I'm sorry but loose cannon
but we'll clean the slate today
and we'll let you know what they say
and we'll try to
define what they say
because just remember what they say
and what you know that they're going to do or not do.
You know, like Trump said,
he was easily going to lower the debt and deficits
when he became president
and immediately came in and raised spending $700 billion
before you can say boo.
And under his four years, what was it,
$5 trillion, $6 trillion?
And we're not even talking about COVID.
So again, we have no love for any of them.
I think we're down to maybe one or two people in D.C.
that we actually have respect for,
but their voices are drowned out.
Anybody who's a moderate
is leaving the parade.
And our only hope, whoever
comes out on top
and is our president for the next four years
does the freaking right thing
that it's we the people,
not we the government.
There's no doubt in my mind.
Joe Biden has a bumper sticker
somewhere in his office
saying, we the government.
F the people
He keeps saying
He works for the people
No, we've been working for him
And when they don't have enough money
He just goes in more debt
And more debt and more debt and more debt
And we're just a footnote
A billion here or a billion there
To people who signed the contract
To pay off student loans
Picking and choosing winners and losers
Anyway, we just wanted to start the show
Because we thought there was nothing super
About Super Tuesday
But we get what we're going to get
And we'll see how it plays out
the president, we will keep calling him on the carpet if he keeps doing stupid.
If he does something good, we'll compliment him.
Listen, when the Israel attack happened for the first week or two, we were complimenting him,
and then he turned into the usual schmuck that he is in order to curry favor.
You know, he's upset.
He's worried about the Muslim vote, so now he's got to kiss their butt, so I have no principle,
so I got to change my thoughts on what's going on there.
And of course, Donald Trump's not running anything right now.
now. But we'll see what he has to say. And most importantly, we'll remember what he did when he was
president and see if what he has to say equates to what he did. And that'll be the story.
But I must tell you, ladies and gentlemen, we must all wake up going forward because
they're killing us. The amount of debt and deficits are killing us.
We had that other nut job today in front of Congress or whatever, Jay Powell, trying to tell us what he's doing for us and how he's engineering a soft landing.
Like he's the economy.
He's nothing.
He's a nobody.
He sat behind a desk and printed to $9 trillion, creating distortions up the wazoo.
We, the people, the ones that get up every day and go to work every day, we're the economy.
So we are surrounded a cesspool of so-called geniuses that are just quickly, fastly.
It's Fastly a word?
Putting us into more and more hawk by the day and taking more and more control.
But Joe Biden and his administration has to go.
another four years of we the government, not we the people,
I do not believe can be sustained.
And you know I'm not into hyperbole.
Just go look at the numbers at the border.
Go look at the numbers on debt and deficits.
And we'll start there.
Of course, I can talk a lot more about a lot of the things
but for me those are the two big matzo balls up next markets economy whatever else comes to mind i'm
gary this is the one only investors edge hi i'm gary colpom hosted a nationally syndicated radio show
investors edge we're not just handsome radio people we manage investors money for a living
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Investment Advisory Services offered through call-bomb capital management.
Hi, I'm Dr. Jake Goodman, host of Beyond the Script,
the podcast where I sit down with pharmacists to answer the health questions
you didn't even know you could ask at the pharmacy counter.
In this episode, we are diving into gut health with CVS pharmacist,
Victoria Motola, who explains why so many of us live with stomach issues,
we should not accept as normal.
A lot of what I see is just like chronic bloating, chronic stomach aches.
Like I get a stomachache every time that I eat.
And it just becomes like a lifestyle where, oh, yeah, you know, I just have a stomachache
every day.
Or I'm constantly feeling like gassy.
And all of those things are not something that generally, if you have a healthy gut, you
should be living with.
So that's when we deep dive.
We deep dive into your medication.
We deep dive into your OTC medication.
And then at that point, we can put it.
probably identify something that we can change.
Hear the full conversation, plus some fascinating facts about how gut health affects so
much more than just your stomach on Beyond the Script, a podcast from CVS Pharmacy and IHeart
Radio. Listen now wherever you get your podcasts.
Reese's peanut butter cups, they go perfectly with music.
Podcasts. And welcome back to the show. Even nature sounds.
Oh, and the thing where someone crinkles tissue and whispers at you.
Hello.
Look, I'm not here to judge what you listen to.
I'm here to judge you for not eating Reese's while you listen to it.
Rees.
Ashley, go back to the nature sounds.
Nice.
Yeah, that's really nice.
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It's time to switch on the integrator units and get the brain cells working.
You're listening to.
Hey, this promises to be fun.
Investors Edge.
The last bastion of quality programming.
With Gary Coltbaum.
It doesn't get better than this.
And welcome once again to Investors Edge.
Thanks for being with us today.
I must tell you today, the market's been trading like a penny stock.
NASDAQ jumping all around the board like crazy.
It's right now 355 p.m.
So five minutes to go.
and they really go nuts in the last five minutes both up and down.
I just watch the NASDAQ go from up 100 to up 40 to up 100 in 10 minutes.
That's the NASDAQ index as itself.
What has not changed is the leadership.
And little did we know.
Little did we know.
And we're already in study mode while we are done.
doing so well. We're in study mode because if you recall, under no uncertain terms, leading up to
January 8th, we were talking about how NVIDIA and the words we used were arguably the most
important technology stock in the market taking that mantle away from the Apple, we were
telling you how NVIDIA was just rangebound. Three months, four months.
months, five months. And then on January 5th, the Friday before the Monday, we came on to this show
and said, you know, we never usually do this. But if Nvidia breaks above 505 and change, that'll be
one of the best looking breakouts we have seen in ages for the most, arguably the most important
stock in the market. That is what we said to you on that Friday. Unbeknownst to us, it broke out on
the Monday, January 8th. And amazingly, $505 and change breakout is $8, $8,000, $8,000 in two months for a large-cap stock.
we have roaded up
sold a little down before earnings
a little pissed off but I had to
80% in two months
but that's not what I want to bring up
what we're studying right now
and we will be in remembrance of
is everything that
happens in the market
we want to learn from
because markets do repeat itself
because fear and greed
never change.
A little bit faster,
but they don't change.
And our recognition of that
was very important
because we ended up buying Facebook
at 350, it's nearing 500.
Somewhat
AI-related.
We just re-bought AMD
and is up 15% and 4%.
five days, AI-related. We just bought Taiwan Semiconductor for the first time, up 5% in two days.
But we missed other things. And the one thing we try to do here, I want you to listen carefully.
Every night, we try to put pieces of the puzzle together. That's what we try to do. We constantly ask ourselves
questions on just what is going on. That is what we do. And every night we want to learn something
from the market, some more than others. And the one thing that we are studying like crazy,
and I want you to remember this, this is for each and every one of you going forward,
because I promise you, we'll find the next one. And that is not just,
that Nvidia broke out on January 8th.
Of the best-looking range-bound move, it's what followed.
So you have arguably the number one tech stock in the market breaking out.
It's semiconductors.
It has an artificial intelligence component to it.
What do you think happens next?
And I will tell you flat out,
I wasn't thinking that way at the time.
On the 18th of January, the whole semiconductor complex busted out, broke above to the upside.
And away we go to where the semiconductor index, the socks, 4200, it's closing near 5,000.
Last I look, that's about 18% in less than two months for an index.
Mind you, there are some weak names that keep the index down.
But the strong names have gone nuts to the upside.
And we originally bought AMD beautifully at 149,
but sold it after a move up and a little stop,
and we made, I think, double digits.
But then we had a re-buy breaking through,
and it's up 15% in five days.
So the number one stock, this is the lesson,
in the group with the artificial intelligence component,
had the little ducklings follow the mom and papa duck,
NVIDIA.
And if on the 18th,
I was thinking that
I would have made a hell of a lot more money than I've already made
and yes we discussed Super Micro which was the 19th
and I was ready to buy that and that's been the big one
but remember what we told you
gaped up gap down move 40 points in the first 15 minutes
we waited on it and then forget about it
so we're just letting you know
the brain
of your handsome and buffed host
and how we work this and how we think through it.
That's what we're doing right now.
It's exactly what we're doing because the next time,
and it doesn't happen often,
we get the number one stock in the group and set up the rest.
Oh, confidence bigger, position size bigger, profits bigger.
And there's your story.
of Nvidia, followed by a bunch of other stuff, which takes us, as we told you, about gold last
Friday breaking out, well, 194 to 19875 so far on the breakout on the GLD, which represents the
price of gold. Not the biggest move, but it's working. Pullbacks look viable. On the gold. Up next.
What else we got for you?
This is the one
only investor's edge.
Hi, I'm Dr. Jake Goodman,
host of Beyond the Script,
the podcast where I sit down with pharmacists
to answer the health questions
you didn't even know you could ask at the pharmacy counter.
In this episode, we are diving into gut health
with CVS pharmacist Victoria Motola,
who explains why so many of us live with stomach issues
we should not accept as normal.
A lot of what I see is just like chronic blood,
chronic stomach aches.
Like, I get a stomach ache every time that I eat.
And it just becomes like a lifestyle where, oh, yeah, you know, I just have a stomachache
every day.
Or I'm constantly feeling like gassy.
And all of those things are not something that generally, if you have a healthy gut, you
should be living with.
So that's when we deep dive.
We deep dive into your medication.
We deep dive into your OTC medication.
And then at that point, we can probably identify something that we can change.
Hear the full conversation plus some.
fascinating facts about how gut health affects so much more than just your stomach on Beyond
the Script, a podcast from CVS Pharmacy and IHeartRadio. Listen now wherever you get your podcasts.
Here's a quick podcast for all you true crime fans. The case of the missing Reese's.
It was me at the store with my mouth. Motive? Um, they're Reese's. What was that going to do? Stop myself.
in next time to see if I do it again. Spoiler, I will. Wow, that had everything. Reeses, suspense,
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We're listening to.
America is talking.
Investors Edge.
He's got to be pleased with that.
The crowd is just on his feet here.
He's a Cinderella boy.
With Gary Coltbaum.
It comes highly recommended.
You're going to feel better if you talk to him.
Okay.
So we've given you what we do and how do we get better and better.
And as I've told you, I'm looking down at my floor in my office.
There's three big boxes lined up on top of each other of folders of printed out charts,
thousands of them from different times and different ways.
Oh, these are breakouts, these are breakdowns.
These are bare markets.
These are bull markets.
We're constantly going back and studying them.
And for me, in real time, this Nvidia is going to be a case study while we're doing fine with it.
The case study will be not thinking to myself, this is just the beginning.
Because in real time, you don't know.
You play your cards.
You have a feeling.
You've seen it before.
but in real time, as you're going through it, you don't know.
But this one will be for the record books for me,
in that we're in it, we're doing well with it,
but our thought process was not,
here come the rest, which takes us to the software stocks.
Well, for the last few days, and particularly yesterday,
we were telling you how a lot of software stocks were going by the wayside.
Breaking down.
Some big break downs.
Some really big breakdowns.
A lot of gaps to the downside on earnings.
Names like Palo Alto networks, for starters, a favorite of many.
But we also told you crowd strikes reporting after the close,
and they had a big gap to the upside last night.
and the thought process was, let's see how the software stocks react.
Will they get better?
Our thought process, wait a minute.
No way they're going to get better.
Maybe they'll bounce, but once you go into a downtrend,
one stock ain't going to change that.
Crowdstrike on the open today was at 365, up 681.
whopping dollars finished only up 32. 31, excuse me. So they sold the stock off the gap.
Now, for CrowdStrike, not a big deal because it's had a big run. But I need to make note
on a day where software stocks should benefit in sympathy, I can tell you flat out, they all opened up
Hot. Palo Alto Networks finished down another 12 and a quarter today after being up 10 on the open.
Same group. Z scale finished down four today was up 11 on the open.
Adobe was down. Big name. Microsoft was down to.
Yes, it was.
And a lot of stocks open hot service now was up 11, finished up less than one.
And I can go on and on.
So just a little bit of a warning shot, software under pressure.
Some, a lot of pressure.
And it's a big part of the NASDAQ.
Checkpoint software hit at 164, finished at 157, finished down after,
up. That's what we're talking about. But what
helped the market again today?
The NASDAQ. The semiconductors.
The NASDAQ.
Nvidia up 26 and change.
Facebook 6. AMD.
5.5.
Taiwan Semiconductor 6 and change.
Super micro 33. That was all
over the freaking map today.
Lamb Research 18.
ASML Holdings 35.
Remember, it's 1,000.
stock. If software keeps going by the wayside, the semis better keep working, and the semis again work today.
Are there any new names I can even look at to buy right now? I got one that Arm Holdings may be setting up,
but they have a lockup provision on their IPO in the next week. We'll see what happens.
but a lot of things are in the trees or very weak in semiconductor land
that said
Apple down another buck today with the NASDAQ up 92
Tesla down another four bucks with the NASDAQ up 92
Google down more than a buck with the NASDAQ up 92
those are three of those big seven
all three remain in bearish phases with Tesla worse than Apple,
worse than Google, excuse me, Tesla the worst, Apple's second worst, Google,
third worst, which is still worse.
How do we know?
Performance, chart patterns.
Tesla can't find a friend.
Institution's still selling.
Google, here's the story I'm hearing on Google, in case you'd,
did not know, there's worried that the AI chat thing is going to take away a lot of the search.
And they did some sort of search thing the other day that Elon Musk was equated to Hitler.
Google is now firmly trading below the all-important 50-day moving average and is now trading a
little bit below the big 200-day moving average, which takes us to Apple. Remember what we told you.
First, stock was getting in trouble, but needed to hold 180.
That is where it's held for 12 weeks.
Took it out Friday.
It's already 169 and under pressure.
And the talk of Apple is simple.
China, their sales were down 30% in the first six weeks of the year or something like that.
And we've also posed the question, if you're handsome and buffing,
host finally stopped trading in his iPhone for the next one, which was three iPhones ago,
are other people doing the same.
Because there's so much they have added to the iPhone, who needs to do the next one?
Hopefully, they can come out with something that gets the engines revving again.
but the last four quarters on Apple minus three, minus one, minus one plus two in sales, year over year.
And of course, the other thing we have told you for a while, but did not matter.
Valuations.
For a long time, Apple would have about a 15 multiple, price earnings multiple.
At the high recently, it was 30.
Double what the norm is.
So maybe it's just correcting that.
Let's see, two, three, four, five, five, eighty, six thirty, six fifty,
right now it's about trading a 24 times earnings, which is still up there.
If things change, we will let you know.
We don't get asked about Apple anymore from people.
Remember, price moves people.
So the Dow was up 75, got back a little bit of the, what was down 400 and change yesterday.
The NASDAQ was up 91, was up like 160 on the open, then it was down up only 17, and then it was up 120, then it was up 40 with like a few minutes to go in the market, and then it lived up like a pinball machine again into the close.
at 336
the NASDAQ was up
2152
yeah about 40
finished up 91
and may I state for the record again
it was the semis
the socks
up 118 again today
was up 160
actually 165
actually I'll take that back
it was actually up
172
finished up 118
What's the issue with the semis right now?
Oh, they're strong as all heck.
The 21-day moving average is it 4623, 370 points below.
That's the problem.
Could get pulled back soon.
Today, not a lick.
Up next, this, that, and the other thing, or whatever else.
This is the one only investors ad.
Hi, I'm Dr. J. Goodman.
of Beyond the script, the podcast where I sit down with pharmacists to answer the health questions
you didn't even know you could ask at the pharmacy counter. In this episode, we are diving into
gut health with CVS pharmacist Victoria Motola, who explains why so many of us live with stomach
issues we should not accept as normal. A lot of what I see is just like chronic bloating, chronic
stomach aches. Like I get a stomach ache every time that I eat and it just becomes like a life
style where, oh, yeah, you know, I just have a stomach kick every day. Or I'm constantly feeling
like gassy. And all of those things are not something that generally, if you have a healthy gut,
you should be living with. So that's when we deep dive. We deep dive into your medication. We deep dive
into your OTC medication. And then at that point, we can probably identify something that we can
change. Hear the full conversation, plus some fascinating facts about how gut health affects
so much more than just your stomach on Beyond the Script, a podcast from CVS Pharmacy and
IHeart Radio. Listen now wherever you get your podcasts.
Reese's peanut butter cups. They go perfectly with music.
Podcasts. And welcome back to the show. Even nature sounds. Oh, and the thing where someone
crinkles tissue and whispers at you. Hello. Look, I'm not here to judge what you listen to. I'm
here to judge you for not eating Reese's while you listen to it.
Reese's. Actually, go back to the nature sounds.
Nice. Yeah, that's really nice.
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what are we waiting for one two ready go action investors edge with gary culpah and well once again to
investors edge remember i call myself mr logic because i for logic because i for logic
What I tell you about New York City in the Subways over a year ago?
If you want to fix the crime in the subways, here is what you do.
Put more police in the subways, duh.
And then start doing some checking of bags.
A little stop and search.
That's all.
Screw anybody who says, oh, you're profiling.
Up yours.
I'm protecting you.
well, not only did months ago
they put a ton of police officers in the subway
I got to tell you when I take it up there
just about every stop there's two
oh and now they announced that the
they are bringing back stop and search
at subway stops
in a bid to halt what they still have some violence
they have some musicians in the subway
and they'll sit and ask you know
they give them a little money and they play violins.
Somebody was playing the violin like a couple weeks ago
and somebody came right behind and just smacked them in the head with a metal object.
So New York City is listening to Mr. Logic.
Too bad other cities have not been.
In the news, I just, you know, I think I mentioned to this a week ago,
but I got the numbers.
on June 26, 2018,
Walgreens replaced General Electric in the Dow
and of course Amazon just went into the Dow.
Total returns since Walgreens replaced GE,
Walgreens down 58%, GE up 86%.
The problem with some of the people of the Dow,
go put the hot stock in there.
You know what happens to hot.
You know they still have,
Cisco in the Dow.
Cisco in the Dow.
Cisco in the Dow.
Cisco stock is at $49.
December of 99.
Cisco is at $49.
Yeah, let's put the hot stock in.
Catching my drift?
Wanted to repeat that.
This is in the news and this is of import.
Home insurance.
Have you seen the price of home insurance?
I've been looking.
Holy crap.
By the way, auto insurance also.
U.S. home insurance has jumped 23% in the last year.
Wow.
That's a lot.
I'm hearing that people with the weather, just so you know, if you have a loan, you need health, home insurance,
but I think if you own it, I don't think you need it.
A lot of people are not using it.
They're saying increasing natural disasters and insurers.
soaring repair costs of pushing up premiums.
It's a load of crap, natural disasters.
We're having the same amount of natural disasters we ever had.
It's just that the climate people, it's worse and worse and worse and worse.
Factually, something to tell you, I'm not so short means much, and may I state for the record,
the stock has been strong.
And I'm actually not happy that I don't own any.
J.P. Morgan.
the CEO,
Jamie Diamond,
selling a crap load of stock.
I'm not so sure it means much.
Sold 821,000 shares,
150 million bucks,
bought in the open market between 09 and 16.
I don't see that as the big negative.
He's getting up there in age and maybe doing some planning,
but we'll keep it in the file manager.
But the stock has just been strong.
He bought 500,000 shares in 09 at 2293, bought more at 34, 34 bucks in 12, bought 500,000 at 53 in 16.
He's now selling it at 150 bucks.
I think I'm going to watch him carefully going forward.
Think these people are smart?
I thought that was good information for you.
In the news, you know, I already.
did Biden, I'm not going to do another Biden.
I was going to do the Biden
something else, immigration. We're just going to leave that be.
Enough. Because I'm sure we're going to have a lot to do going
forward. Also with note,
our dollar versus other currencies,
it's starting to roll over,
potentially heading down. That's not a
bad thing. Just letting you know.
Our market usually likes it.
Their markets usually like it.
And Japan has been strong.
The EFA index has been strong.
Go look it up.
E-A-F-E.
And we'll see how it goes.
Little rebound today.
We'll take it.
Semiconductors, wow.
Software is on notice.
And we'll see where it takes us.
We're in an outlook.
Liar event, ladies and gentlemen.
It's out of the norm
of markets, out of the ebb and flow,
which is just fine.
Just be smart.
I didn't mention
crypto because it's insane.
A gargantuan reversal yesterday
to the downside, and they just gapped it up
overnight again.
Where she stops, we don't know.
Just be smart.
When the
right side of the Alfa, Eiffel Tower comes into play, there's going to be a hell of a lot of money
being lost.
Have a great evening drive carefully.
I'll be on with Varney & Company, 10 a.m. hour tomorrow.
Fox Business Network, don't miss it.
And until then, again, have a great evening drive carefully.
And when you get home, do like we do, it's quite simple.
Make sure you hug your family.
Make sure you hug your children.
They will feel better.
You will feel better.
I promise.
Alcohol's overrated.
Drugs suck.
Tell your kids.
Have a good one, everybody.
Bye, bye.
This has been Investors Edge with Gary Cult Bomb on BizTalk.
To listen to past episodes or to get in contact with Gary, go to GaryK.com.
That's GaryK.com.
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