Investor's Edge with Gary Kaltbaum - them semis [05.13.2025]
Episode Date: May 13, 2025https://garykaltbaum.com/...
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Investor's Edge with Gary Coltbaum.
Straight talk about you and your money.
Now from the BizTalk Studios, here is Gary Cultbaum.
And welcome once again to Investors Edge.
I'm Gary Coltbaum, your host.
A thanks for being with us today.
Glad you here, ladies and gentlemen.
Happy that you are listening.
It is the 13th of May, 2025.
It is a two.
Tuesday. Hope you're having a good day. As always, serious talk on everything that affects you. We will do the
markets, the economy, your job, your industry, tariffs, no more tariffs, liars, cheaters, thieves, corruption,
whatever comes to mind. Hope you're having a good day again. And if you do not get this radio
show in your city, we'll post it at garyk.com. We'll post on our Twitter feed, which is now X. And if you
don't follow us on next, you should. And if you like to email us, you just got to be nice.
First off, the Knicks, very good win last night. They're up 3-1 on Boston. It looks like
Jason Tatum for the Celtics. I'm going to guess he's got an Achilles tier. That's what it looks like,
and he's out. And he may miss a lot of next season because an Achilles is whatever. We hate seeing
that. We hate, hate, hate, hate, hate seeing that. But we're happy about the Knicks. Next,
Why is everything in my life Seinfeld?
Do you know there is a stock called Manhattan Associates with the symbol M-A-N-H?
And I call it Manhans because of M-A-N-H.
Do you know every time something may not go wrong or if it's a tough market for a day?
I'm saying the seas were angry that day, my friend, like an old man trying to return soup at a deli, from Costanza.
or I do the Uncle Leo all the time.
Jerry, hello.
Everything's Seinfeld, amongst other things.
That went off the air how many years ago,
and everything is still Seinfeld.
They really figured it out.
I hear he makes $100 million a year,
him and Larry David, $100 million a year on all that.
Anyway, I just
wanted to bring that up
because I was turning the channel
and Seinfeld was on
and Uncle Leo shows up
Jerry, hello!
And I'm just,
that's what I do.
Whatever.
As always,
lots to talk about.
But I want to start off again
with the taxes,
the tariffs.
I just want to make sure
you understand
because I have to let you know they're BSing you.
Just remember, there's always agendas out there and you're getting BSed.
Let me tell you what I've been hearing from the righties.
And remember, they all have agendas.
Nothing against people.
They do their job, but they have agendas.
And their goal is to convince, whether they're on the left or on the right,
their goal is to convince you of their side.
we have no side.
We can't stand any of them.
So we just want to let you know,
I saw some people today making fun of Wall Street.
Making fun of people on Wall Street,
naming some names on Wall Street.
And what they are saying is,
look how quick Wall Street went from.
We're 80% sure of a recession,
down to only 20,
20% sure of a recession.
And they were making fun of Wall Street.
And of course, in case you don't know, these are Trump lovers.
So no matter what Trump does, good or bad, he's great.
So they're there to protect him and defend him at all costs.
But I'm here to tell you, Wall Street did exactly what they should have done.
remember what happened.
They want you to forget.
They want you to believe there's something called the art of the deal with all this.
And by the way, if you think I'm ribbon on Trump,
we're going to be praising him like there's no tomorrow in a few minutes.
But the very simple story is that the president, let me backtrack.
In order to raise taxes, marginal tax rates and things,
like that. It's supposed to go through the House, the Senate, and then signed by the president.
But the president, Donald Trump, decided to put tariffs on and massive tariffs on every country out there.
And what that is is a gargantuan tax hike on all of us, but also distortions for all those countries.
He crashed the markets.
Donald Trump single-handedly crashed the markets.
They were already weak going into that crash based on all the uncertainty in the back and forth,
but he crashed the markets.
Leave no doubt of this.
It happened on a Thursday and Friday directly from the Wednesday Rose Garden after the close.
They want you to forget that.
We don't.
Why? Because it matters now. Big time now. So over the weekend, I can imagine at the White House they were crapping in their pants. Leave no doubt. There was got to be heated discussions, yelling and screaming back and forth. Got to believe that was going on because the markets crashed. And guess who gets the blame? Those who are running the show.
show. So on that
Monday they came up with the
pause. They were going to
pause. They were coming out
with the fact, not the fact
of, but they were going to come out with
their fact that, well,
we've had some discussions and this
and that, and we're going to pause those
tariffs for now. But what happened
was it got leaked on that Monday.
And the Dow rallied
up 2,000 points in a half hour.
But then they disavowed it
and just went down 2,000 points, direct correlation.
But they were going to do the pause that day.
But the leak had them back away.
They waited till Wednesday, and then they put on the pause,
and the market in the middle of day rallied 2,000 some odd points in a half hour.
And then the China thing bubbled up.
And the recognition that, holy smokes, 145% on all these products,
So they exempted Apple, huge.
They exempted auto parts, huge.
They exempted all kinds of other things.
They backed away.
They caved.
They had no deals.
There was no art of the deal there, which took us to this week.
But how did we get to this week?
We were told and we've been told by the righties, oh, China is in tough shape.
They're coming to the table, but that's not true.
we went to them
and it doesn't matter but we went to them
why why were we in dire straits
the poll numbers were tanking
the ports
were dead
commerce was slowing in different areas
and rightfully so
Wall Street was saying
boy odds of recession
has picked up we use the word contraction
because recession is two quarters
we think a down quarter
is a contraction. And then what happened? Over this past weekend, complete change of the stance.
145 down to 30. And by the way, that 30, there's so many exemptions, it's on a few things.
And the market knew it and was up a thousand points yesterday. And what else? You went from major
tax hike on all these products, and now it's gone. So guess what happens to recession?
talk. You change your stance. You have to. Why? Because they didn't go through normal channels
of House Senate White House. They went to executive order on tariffs, which were huge,
both back and forth. So we're just letting you know. And again, we're not ripping on the
president. He made a big mistake. And guess what? To his, their credit, they got the hell of
from it. But to blame
Wall Street, they didn't
do anything wrong.
I can guarantee you.
I can't guarantee anything.
I can all but guarantee
you.
We were going to have a major contraction
if they kept that
early tariff on and didn't do the pause
or didn't do the exemptions.
And we would have still been in pretty good
trouble if we kept on the
145 on China.
There's no doubt in my mind.
So we're just letting you know, be careful of what you hear.
Everybody's got a freaking agenda.
Just letting you know.
And we want you all to keep a clear mind about this because I got news for you.
These politicos, they suck.
You know that, right?
They suck.
And the people that are trying to convince you everything, they suck.
They don't have your interest at heart.
Just remember that.
And the lefties?
God.
Nausea.
That's all I can tell you about them.
Boy, they're out today.
They got nothing.
They got no game.
Hey, up next.
The markets.
And what else?
This is the one only Investor's Edge.
Hi, I'm Gary Kalbaum,
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Their zero chafe thanks to four times more stretch than competing brands.
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With over 30 million pairs sold, there are thousands of men out there more comfortable than you.
Don't settle for less.
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That's Tommyjohn.com code comfort.
Tommy John.
Comfort perfected.
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You're listening to.
Hey, this promises to be fun.
Investors Edge.
The last bastion of quality programming.
With Gary Coltbaum.
It doesn't get better than this.
And welcome once again to Investors Edge.
I hope you catch my drift on what I'm trying to tell you.
Everybody's got an agenda.
We don't.
We'll rip them all.
But I have to tell you on the other end.
President Trump is still in Saudi Arabia.
And he did a speech today.
And I have to tell you.
you, I would give him a big hug for that speech if I met him. I'd give him a big hug. He talked about
what I love talking about, and that is success and greatness. And he was talking about how the
Middle East, in so many regards, and we've told you that here, we went to Dubai, we couldn't believe
what a magnificent place. We've been to Israel, the Middle East, the Middle East, in so many regards. And we've told you that here, we've
the miracle in the Middle East,
where you travel the highways,
you've got these big beautiful buildings
where you have at the top of the buildings,
Intel or Amgen, all these great corporations,
while next door,
crappholes.
Look what they did to Gaza.
Tunnels to murder others.
And it's not just Dubai,
but Abu Dhabi,
Saudi Arabia.
I mean, they're,
becoming these big, gigantic metropolitan areas of wealth and greatness and building and not war and
not death, but life.
And we're not saying they're perfect and we know the stories, we know the stories,
you know, come back at us and say, we get that.
We're just talking as the whole here.
Saudi Arabia is going modern.
women have rights.
I hate saying that like that, but
they didn't have that in the past.
So what does Trump do today? He talks about
greatness, and you know what he talked about Syria?
Syria was run
by a scumbag
and he's out.
And you know who's running Syria now?
A guy who used to run
Al-Qaeda!
That's not good.
But Trump
was talking about
what we're going to do with Syria.
We're going to take the
sanctions off them and we're going to try and work with them and turn Syria into go from bad to
great I love that and he talked about peace not war peace not war peace not war peace not war we got to
get I mean how do people want to just keep dying and killing and dying and killing
and terror I loved it I loved it and again we
know. We know about the journalists in Saudi Arabia. We know all this. We're not stupid. But moving
forward, just moving forward, wouldn't it be great if there was no more wars? Unfortunately,
there's going to be terrorism out there. Hamas scumbags. Hope they all rot in hell. But imagine if
greatness and peace can take over.
flourish. Wow. It's already happened in many areas of the Middle East that you would have never
thought in the past. Israel gets along with all these Middle Eastern countries. 20 years ago,
forget about it. So well done, President Trump. Great speech. I am not in his camp that he
should accept this jet from Qatar. So I'm not a complete agreement there. Remember, we have no
bias here. We'll just tell it right down the middle, but I had to bring that up. Fantastic. You go
watch that speech if you want. The markets. Well, I'm about to tell you that the Dow was down
269 points. I'm about to tell you that, but there's only one thing about that. United Health
was down 67 and changed today, which comes out to about 435 Dow points. So you take out United
health and the doubt was actually up
a hundred and something points
today.
Just letting you know.
Actually more than that.
I take that back.
430.
Yeah, 170.
And the NASDAQ
up 300, the NASDAQ 100,
330, the semis 150,
leave no doubt
that the gargantuan change
in the tax,
the tax, the tax,
The most leverage was in technology and the semis. Everything coming up the right side.
After a crash, a rally up, a sitting around, and the gap to the upside yesterday, more today.
And let me state for the record, if this plays out well, we're going to see a truckload
of setups going forward.
A truckload of setups going forward to go higher.
We hope that's going to be the case.
The New Yearly High List, picking up some today,
some interesting names, go look it up.
We want you to do some of the work.
Something like, let's see, New Yearly High List today,
LPL.
financial, Macado Libre, Palantir, New Yearly High List after gaping down on earnings. Boeing,
whoa.
Finally, that thing is still way down from five, six years ago.
GE.
So very good day on the NASDAQ, NASDAQ 100, and the semis, rough day on the Dow, but the S&P was up 42.
technology. And in the Dow also was up Caterpillar 10.
Economically sensitive, better. Apple was up a couple, Amazon a couple, though Amazon was up
five or six. And then you had Goldman Sachs up 12, J.P. Morgan 3, American Express 3,
so the financials are better. What got whack today? As we said United Health.
Dang, what a freaking disaster that stock is now.
That's the only way I can put it.
A disaster.
Do you know United Health now?
In 1, 2, 3, 4, let's call it about 4.5 to 5 weeks has gone from 606 to 311.
That's 295 times 6.5.
1,117 Dow points.
The CEO is going by-bye, and they are basically pulling back on any type of guidance going forward.
What did we warn you about months ago when it comes to these managed care companies,
specifically United Health, because of that murder?
And again, anybody who gave money to that murder is an ass.
but because of that murder they ended up front and center.
And what you're hurried was they're charging a lot more than others.
Adjustments have repercussions.
Up next, what else?
In the markets.
This is the one only investors end.
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We're listening to.
America is talking.
Investors Edge.
that the crowd is just on its feet here.
He's a Cinderella boy.
With Gary Colbomb.
It comes highly recommended.
You're going to feel better if you talk to him.
So when I say to you,
setups.
Remember, if a stock's trading between 100 and 120
for five months,
every time it goes to 120,
it gets sold down.
Every time it drops down to 100,
it gets bought up,
and just plays ping pong between 100.
and 120. But then something happens. It rallies back to 120 again. Think about this in your mind.
Picture it. It rallies back to 120 again, but this time does not drop back to 100. It only drops back to
115. What does that mean? Well, it means higher, low, and the potential to finally move a
that range at 120 the setup that's what we mean by a setup and there are different forms of
setting up but that's the easiest one to give you where you draw two horizontal lines one a
bunch below and you draw zigzag back and forth hitting each line and then on the last time
you hit the top you only pull it back a little and then you bust it through the upside
the setup and the breakout.
Well, because of this move,
we expect a lot of things to start setting up in the weeks ahead,
not necessarily tomorrow, in the weeks ahead.
And we say that because we're already starting to see a few names move out of range,
which usually is a precursor to more.
and due to the fact we give it a 0.0 chance that came from John Vernon of Alma House,
0.0, of President Trump doing the stupid and going back to those tariffs, taxes.
Our hope is we're able every day to find something new.
And more and more and more and next and next and next.
And as always, if anything changes, we'll let you know.
But man, I got to tell you, take out United Health.
You had a pretty darn good day today.
What else today?
The banks had a better today.
They sold off a little bit at the close, but they were strong.
Some of the economically sensitive were strong.
Weak was Hershey's and eco-labs and smuckers.
And, of course, the managed care.
You know it got smoke today?
Elevance, ELV, managed care down $41.
Eumana, managed care, down $24.
And I don't need to name the rest.
You know what else is starting to break down a little bit?
The O'Reilly Automotive and the AutoZone look like they're topping out.
Why?
Defensive.
Markets getting a little offensive.
they sell off the defensive.
The biotech and the drugs,
we've been telling you to avoid them for a while.
And the story goes on the drug companies.
Everybody is now posting in little did I know.
Holy crap.
What did they used to say on the Lucy's show from Ricky Ricardo?
You got some splaining to do?
So they are reporting, and
I'm pretty sure they're not BSing.
Drug prices around the globe.
Drug prices around the globe.
Do you know there's some drugs for cancer
that you pay $5,000 for here,
but you only pay $1,000 in Germany?
And so on and so forth.
There was a huge laundry list
posted in several places.
And you know me, I believe in free markets, but a drug company is really free markets.
Isn't kind of like monopolies?
That's how generics became so big.
So they put out a full list of drugs.
Let me just give you some examples.
You ready?
Ketruder.
It treats melanoma and other cancers.
Here it costs between 10,800 and 15,200.
Germany, it's 4,100, 73%.
Let me pick one out that's not so depressing.
How about Herceptin treats anemia from chemotherapy?
4,500 here, UK-1900.
That's a 58% drop.
How about, let's get away from...
Cancer. How about Orrencia? Cost per dose here, $1,600. Under the new order from Trump, it would be only 700.
54% drop because what Trump would be doing is matching the low price of these other countries.
Enbrel treats psoriasis and surriatic arthritis. 1600 per dose,
it would go to $700, 56% drop.
How about Stellara?
My whole family, in case you don't know, has been stricken with Crohn's disease and ulcerative colitis.
$1,000, $14,000 per dose go to $6,500.
It's going to get quite interesting.
And you know what I noticed?
The scummy lefties are not talking about it.
How much money are they getting from the drug companies?
It used to be the left was all about lower drug prices.
I think Bernie Sanders is the only one who talks about him now.
Now you got trumpet, the bully pulpit.
We'll see how it plays out, but what does it do for those stocks?
That's a problem.
And none of this may happen, but perception.
So as we've been telling you, we would avoid the drugs and the biotechs and the like,
and so far that has been correct
and it's just about one plus one equals two sometimes
any industry where the potential
for squeezed margins
because profits dropping
we'll see their stock prices head lower
one plus one does equal two
now we don't know if this is going to be accomplished
but I gather it's going to be newsy
for quite a while.
By the way, I was stunned.
Some of these things are 78% cheaper at other countries.
78% treat cheaper.
Wow.
Wow.
And there's a whole list of them.
Little did we know.
So I think the drug companies will have some splain and to do.
They've been saying for years,
well
you're going to hurt the research and development
but then they're going to have to answer
I would ask
but why don't you charge Germany the same amount
then what makes them so
privileged to get it cheaper
why are we the
why are we why are we the punching bag
that would be a great question
for the CEOs of the drug companies
And I think valid.
And remember, I don't like price controls.
I don't want to dictate price to people.
But this is some big stuff, kids.
We'll keep you up to date on it.
But again, we would just continue to avoid those areas.
They are acting piss poor at this juncture.
And I heard somebody say cheap.
Well, cheap gets cheaper in the market.
Especially when you got squeezing margins.
and I'm just noticing, man, some of them are just getting clonked.
That's my own word clunked.
Pfizer?
Yeah, down 35% in 10 months for starters.
That's been a dead stock for some.
By the way, Pfizer was 61 in 21.
It's 22 today.
What does that tell you?
We don't own any.
So back to the good side.
I think there's a chance after some backing and filling and sitting and
standing and hanging around.
A lot of setups will show up.
More new yearly highs.
We'll take it day by day.
We always worry about the specter of big volume distribution,
selling by institutions changing the tide,
but it didn't happen today.
Up next.
Visionary minds.
This is the one only investor's edge.
Guys, it's no use putting it off.
The best time for a day.
underwear refreshes now. Tommy John underwear is designed for a perfect fit that stays put all day.
Their zero-chafe thanks to four times more stretch than competing brands, and their innovative
horizontal quick-draw fly is a game changer. With over 30 million pairs sold, there are thousands
of men out there more comfortable than you. Don't settle for less. Go to Tommyjohn.com today for 25%
off your first order with code comfort. That's Tommyjohn.com code comfort. Tommy John,
Comfort perfected.
This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card.
Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect.
Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination.
Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide.
The Capital One Venture X card.
What's in your wallet?
Terms apply.
Lounge access is subject to change.
See Capital One.com for details.
This episode is brought to you by Spreaker.
The platform responsible for a rapidly spreading condition known as podcast brain.
Symptoms include buying microphones you don't need, explaining RSS feeds to confused relatives,
and saying things like, sorry, I can't talk right now, I'm editing audio.
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The good news is Spreaker makes the whole process simple.
You record your show, upload it once, and Spreaker distributes it everywhere people listen.
Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and about a dozen apps your cousin swears are the next big thing.
Even better, Spreaker helps you monetize your show with ads, meaning your podcast might
someday pay for, well, more microphones.
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Spreaker, because if you're going to talk to yourself for an hour, you might as well publish it.
You're listening to.
What are we waiting for?
Well, what are you waiting for?
One, two, ready, go.
Action
In The Susters Edge
With Gary Kaltba
And speaking of
Seinfeld
You know what's scary?
I can tell you the names of the soups
From the Soup Nazi show
Molokatani
And then Newman with the Jambalaya
It's just
It's the
In the front of my brain
Everything
thing. Then there's the Jimmy. Jimmy's got food office table. Anyway, that's for another day. So we found
this Instagram thing called visionary minds with two WIs, and we just love the site. What it does,
it gives you like 10 little blips of companies and how they do what they do and how they got so
great and stuff. And this shows about business, Investor's Edge.
And we figure, I don't know if we'll do it every day, but we're going to do a lot of these to give you an idea about companies and what's made them so great.
And today we're going to do Apple stores.
In case you don't know, Apple stores don't have checkout counters.
There's no lines.
There's no cash registers.
There's no shouting of offers.
They say it's one of the smartest billion dollar strategies Apple has ever made.
And here's how they quietly make billions using psychology and design.
So you walk into an Apple store and there's no obvious place to pay.
You don't see any.
There's no checkout lane.
There's no buy now signs.
It feels more like a hotel lobby than a technology store.
It's intentional, they say.
Apple's goal is to make the store feel comfortable.
calm, clean, and open. You're not walking into a store, you're walking into an experience.
Why? They think pressure kills desire. Traditional stores are full attention. Lines, salespeople,
beeping scanners, and urgency. Apple believes they remove all that. Instead of a cashier,
a staff member casually approaches you. They wear regular
clothes, though they do wear like the with the Apple Signy on it. Not uniforms. They don't push a
sale. They have a conversation with you. When you're ready to buy, they don't send you to a counter.
They pull out an iPhone and check you out right there. No waiting, no final step. Just tap and go.
It doesn't feel like buying. It feels like talking. And when buying doesn't feel like
like buying, you're more likely to do it. This tactic is called reducing friction. Every barrier,
every extra step makes a customer rethink. Apple eliminates those steps before you even notice them.
The store layout plays a role too. There are no shelves, no aisles, just big wooden tables.
In fact, you know what I love about those wooden tables? You ever play paper football? They'd be perfect.
Everything is out in the open.
Everything invites you to touch.
The freedom to explore matters.
You're encouraged to play, swipe, test, and ask.
And the longer you stay, the more likely you are to buy.
Apple uses this psychology because people hate waiting.
So Apple remove the checkout wait from the experience.
They also use familiarity.
Every employee is trained to act like a helpful.
friend, not a salesperson. They're not chasing commissions. They're building trust. This trust
leads to bigger purchases. You don't feel sold. You feel like you made the decision on your own.
The result, and I didn't know this, Apple stores make more money per square foot than any other retail
chain in the world. More than Tiffany, more than Chanel, more than Walmart. Apple didn't just
change what a tech store looks like.
They changed how buying feels, and that's why people don't hesitate to spend $1,200 on an iPhone.
This is the genius of invisible selling.
The less it feels like the store, the more you're willing to buy Apple stores.
And by the way, I took my wife to buy a new iPhone.
We went to the Apple store.
I wasn't buying a new iPhone.
I bought a new iPhone.
Do you know why?
because I started playing with the new iPhone.
And I must tell you,
it wasn't really like there were big, big changes at all.
A few little things in here.
But I had a 12, and I'm up to the 16.
I'm thinking to myself, okay, and I bought it.
And I think they paid me for my old phone a certain amount.
I still ended up paying a decent amount.
They're pretty good Apple, I must tell you.
Well done.
That's your Apple stores.
And we'll do a lot more because I got to tell you,
I am so interested in this website,
so I figured you'd be just as interested.
And they have Volkswagen, Burger King, Marvel, Steve Jobs is on here,
the Beatles, all kinds of stuff.
And it really gives you an understanding
how to hell did these companies become great?
I hope to find Chipotle on there.
If you think about what does Chipotle do?
Anything exciting?
They have a lineup and they give you chicken or meat or veggies and corn and pico and avocado and whatever.
Others do.
How did Chipotle get to?
How many stores they got now, restaurants?
Oh, only 3,644 in 82 countries.
So I'm hoping Chipotle's on there.
I'm always interested in you should be too.
And for your life also, what's the difference?
How did they get there?
And then also, how does Walmart do what they do and how the hell is Kmart gone?
Well, we know why.
We've told you firsthand why.
But it's all very instructive.
And it actually helps us out in the markets.
Because there's been a lot of disasters in the market.
By the way, including Target, which, by the way, in case you don't know, is sitting at $99.
$99, the high was 267 and 21, while Walmart's at $1.
while Walmart's at an all-time high.
We'll keep you on top of things.
That all said, you have a great evening.
Drive carefully, and when you get home, do like we do.
Make sure you hug your family.
Make sure you hug your children.
They will feel better.
You will feel better, I promise.
Stay well, be well.
Hopefully we're going to get a lot of setups going forward.
Would be nice.
Have a great evening.
And as they say, from Seinfeld, Serenity now.
Bye-bye.
This has been Investor's Edge with Gary
cult bomb on Biz Talk. To listen to past episodes or to get in contact with Gary, go to Garyk.com.
That's GaryK.com.
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