Investor's Edge with Gary Kaltbaum - THEM SEMIS...THE OTHER WAY [07.01.2026]

Episode Date: July 1, 2026

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Investor's Edge with Gary Coltbaum. Straight talk about you and your money. Now from the BizTalk Studios, here is Gary Cultbaum. And welcome once again to Investors Edge. I'm Gary Coltbaum, your host day. Thanks for being with us today. Glad you here, ladies and gentlemen, happy that you are listening. It's the first.

That's right, July 1st, 2006. Hope you're having a good day. Hope you have a good weekend. If you're traveling, travel safe. I am heading right after this radio show to the airport. Going up to New York City, you're going to do some TV tomorrow and then hang out with the fam for the whole weekend up there. We'll be back to Florida on Sunday. Happy July 4th.

Take care of yourself. Don't screw around with fireworks, if you don't mind me saying. Seriously. Anyway, in case you don't know, this is seriously. talk on everything that affects you will do the markets the economy your job your industry what else is going on that I can talk about tariffs war have you noticed there's like no news on the supposed war anymore do you think it's going to be like all the trade deals that never happened they just were dropped do you know if you

search the words trade deal with Europe there is no trade deal trade deal with China There's a couple of things. So I'm just wondering if they're just going to let this thing pass, the straight open, no more firing, and whatever. We'll see. I think the big thing will be whether the schmucks in Lebanon, Hezbollah, keep shooting and throwing bombs up there because there'll ain't taken anybody anymore. They will put the hammer down.

That's all I can tell you. If you do not get this radio show in your city, we'll post at garyk.com. We'll also post on our X feed. If you don't follow us on X, you should. And if you like to email us, just be nice. Just be respectful because we'll be nice and respectful back. Unless you like Hamas or you're racist and you like terrorism.

We'll even be respectful to the commies that are winning the primaries. We'll see if they win the generals. man I got to tell you I got to cover it there's this one woman that gave an excuse for 9-11 if it wasn't for our apartheid 9-11 wouldn't happen no no I'm not making this up she won she won the primary to be one of our congresspeople she wants to abide polished prisons, but now she changed her mind. There's some wild things out there. And by the way, you know why the communists are winning?

Do you know why the socialists are winning their primaries? You do know why, right? You do know the reason, right? Because of the Republicans. The Republican Party are now socialist. Donald Trump is a socialist. And thus, they can get away with it. You don't believe me?

This administration is running $2.2 trillion deficit this year. And they had a chance to do something about it. And you know what they said? Screw that. This president just demanded gas stations to lower their prices down to $2.50, which is a sheer impossibility. They all go broke. This president, what else is he doing? billions.

He knows nothing. Companies. Some with no sales. dealing with industry, jumping all over industry, putting people down. It's socialism. Oh, tariffs, that's higher taxes. That too. And by the way, I don't say it in a bad, I'm just stating facts.

And then there's the whole Republican Party. They used to fight on debt and deficits and the debt ceiling, and they don't anymore. So what does it do? It gives license to the other side. to do and say what they're doing. That's all. If this was a real conservative Republican Party, they can fight.

They can complain all they want about communism and socialism, but they can all come back and say, hey, wait a minute. Oh, and now you want $1.5 trillion for the Defense Department. 1.5 trillion for the Defense Department. We spent $300 billion back in the early 2000. and we did very well with that, $1.5 trillion. Anyway, you get my point. Takes one to no one.

I think there's a couple of people left in D.C. that think like I do, and you know what happened? Trump went after him, and they lost. I think one guy's still left, but he's drowned out. Rand Paul, and I think Trump ripped him also. Rand Paul thinks like me. balanced budgets, less spending, efficiencies. Guess what?

Both parties are a laffer now. And I can go on and on and on, but you get my point. I'm waiting for a hero. I was hoping it was Trump. No. 2.2 trillion deficit this year. That's all. Case closed.

We move on. Anyway, I don't think. think the communists are going to win in the general, except in the places that are very blue. Because for whatever reason, somebody looks at the voting slip and they see a D and they just vote D no matter who it is. I don't want to say if they saw Adolf Hitler's name there, they would still vote D, but I wonder sometimes. Anyway, I wish, Trump would do better, but it's not going to happen. But he did pocket $1.4 billion, but he knows nothing about it.

Yeah, sure, right. Anyway, we got lots to cover. I do have to mention one thing. Mitch Robinson is going to the Celtics from the Knicks, $48 million. I'm very happy from he deserves every penny. but we lost a good player and a good man. The Knicks. He'll be replaced by another big man soon.

The Knicks are keeping most of their team. And I'll take another championship. I'm not thrilled that he's going to the Celtics, but hey, all's fair. 48 million, three years. Good for him. I love the guy. I hope to meet him one day.

And I've never met him, and I still say I love the guy. World Cup. I'm enjoying it. I've never been a big soccer fan. I've been to games. Many years ago, I used to go to all the games down in Miami. And when I lived in Tampa, when I went to school there, I used to go watch the Tampa Bay Rowdies. I think the guy, what was this?

Rodney Marsh, I do remember. And I remember the goalie for the Miami team was Arnie Mouser, but I'm enjoying this World Cup. You know what I enjoy the most? The fans, did you see the Japanese fans cleaning up their seats? The Japanese players bowing, awesome. But the fans are fantastic. They're rabid.

And I knew that already. I've been in England at pubs watching games and they're rabid. Anyway, whoever the best team wins, I watch France and this guy, Mbopi is his name, he's good. That's going to be a tough team to beat. It'll be interesting to see what the U.S. does. Okay, that's our sports for today's show. But I'm enjoying the World Cup. England won 2-1 today.

They were down 1-0. And I think the U.S. plays tonight. I'll be on an airplane watching. All right. Markets. I'm going to do tidbits with the markets today. Let's start with SpaceX. Down 13.5 bucks today to 157 and change.

I believe I said to you, I'm looking for a pullback, low to mid-160s, but this ain't a pullback. This is a trashing today. So we didn't do a thing. But we're going to keep watching. I noticed today news about lockups. I'll explain that up next. On this, the one-only Investor's Edge.

Hi, I'm Gary Kalbaum, hosted a nationally syndicated radio show Investors Edge. We're not just handsome radio people. We manage investors' money for a living, specializing in fee-based discretionary money management. No big commissions, just a fee on the assets that's managed. We also provide a full range of personalized services, including retirement planning, fixed income, and educational needs, all to assist you in achieving your financial goals.

Understanding not all individuals have the same needs, we'll carefully evaluate your personal goals to determine a proper investment strategy. If your current approach to investing is not getting you to where you would like to be, call us to make an appointment for a complimentary portfolio review. The number to call is 888-4-22-559. That's 888-4-22,

5559. That's 888, 422, 52559. Investment advisory services offered through Coltbaum Capital Management. It's time to switch on the integrator units and get the brain cells working. You're listening to. Hey, this promises to be fun. Investors Edge. The last bastion of quality programming. With Gary Coltbaum. It doesn't get better than this. And welcome once again to Investors Edge. Thanks for being with us today. So, by the way, I'm just reading some quotes from some of these communists that won their primaries.

And in interviews, they were asked about it and they refused to answer the qu- They couldn't last two minutes in an interview with me. Too bad these journalists are a bunch of wussies. A bunch of wussies. I don't think Trump can last two minutes with me either. All right. Get back to SpaceX. So there are lockup provisions.

Something comes public, how many shares are out there trading, and then there are certain dates where a certain amount of stock from whoever can sell. And if I'm reading this correct, it looks like the lockup provisions, are quite in favor of the sellers. I don't know if that's what hit it today, but they hit it good. We're going to keep watch on it.

Some of your greatest winners are new initial public offerings. The problem with this one, though, leave no doubt is valuation. That's a tough valuation. That's a tough valuation to fill. When META came public many years ago, it came public poorly and the stock took a big hit. Then an earnings report came out and it gapped up big. We jumped all over that gap.

Surprise earnings announcements and big gap to the upside on initial public offerings always have to be looked at. We want you to remember that. And in the last year, or let's call two years, unfortunately, they just came out at, you never know, but at ridiculous prices. I think I have highlighted for you, Stubhub, how about that one? A $23.5 dollar deal, they opened it at 27.

It's 12, it's almost 13. It was down to six. For example. For example. How about something called Figma? A $33 deal, they opened it. Oh, by the way, I'm not making this up. I want you to listen carefully.

$33 deal opened it up about $100. The next day hit a high of $142 closed at $100. It's $19.20. This is what we mean. They never learned their lesson. How about Fermi? $21 deal they opened at 36. It's eight and a half. And then these clowns with the crypto, remember Gemini Space Station? $28 deal they opened at 46. And that same day it closed at 32. Imagine buying a hot IPO that opens at 46 and the same day is 32. It's four and a half bucks. By the way, tied to crypto. Oh, by the way, Bitcoin was actually up a little bit today. That's what we mean.

One of the names I regret the most, and boy do I regret it, is MasterCard. MasterCard came public. in 06, I believe. I'm checking it out right now. Yeah, you got it. And just so you know, it's split-adjusted $4. In August of 06, it gapped up 20% to $5. It was $10 in six months.

It was 10 in six months. six months later it was 14 six months later it was 24 sixfold and so on and so forth one of my biggest regrets and for the life of me I usually have a good memory

I don't remember why I did not buy it so whenever we get into earnings season we are absolutely positively looking for the IPOs of the last year or two. That's something good is going to happen. It closed at 20.

It opens at 28. Back to SpaceX again. That's going to be interesting. Why? That freaking valuation, man. And I'm being told they're going to do bazillions and revenue. Okay.

Okay. We'll see. On the day, the Dow was only down 13. But the NASDAQ was down 173 and the NASDAQ 100 down 467. Remember what we told you that we thought the NASDAQ 100 is now changing to a certain extent? What did we tell you? That semiconductors and artificial intelligence have a much bigger influence on the NASDAQA, as they've grown and moved more, the semiconductor index was down a juicy 900 points today.

And that was after a good day yesterday, which has me still thinking about how wide and loose the semiconductors are now trading, which is a little bit on the worrisome side. Often, not all the time. time, widen loose, changes the complexion. Up next, what do we mean by that? I'm Gary. This is the one and only Investors Edge. We're listening to America is talking. Investors Edge. He's got to be pleased with that. The crowd is just on his feet here. He's a Cinderella boy. With Gary called Bob. It comes highly recommended. You're going to feel better if you talk to him. And what once again, Investors Edge wide and loose simply means after a move to the upside or a move to the downside

things start trading crazy all over the map 7% up 9% down 12% up 13% down and what it simply means not all the time is that after a move up sellers are finally showing up and fighting the buyers are still there but sellers are now fighting and then sellers get the upper hand

and then you're on your way down for who knows how long same thing to the downside so we're going to be paying a lot of attention here because the moves have been insane the semiconductors had a strong day yesterday a terrible day to day. The day before had a monstrous reversal of 900 points. The day before it gapped down and lost 800 points. The day before that it was up 600. Two days before that it gaped down a thousand. And that's an index of stocks. So stay tuned. Here's the good news.

Money flowed into software again today. We have harping that software has been better, but we'll see how it plays out. And we've been naming a few strong names, and they had another pretty decent day today. The software security stocks of CrowdStrike and Palo Alto networks and Fortinet, for example, we'll keep you informed. But the story today was an absolute kick in the teeth of the semiconductor names while money flows into the software. But I will tell you this, Oracle, something's up, because Oracle is not rallying with the semis. In fact, it hit a new relative low, not the low of April,

but a new relative low on this recent drop, while the software stocks have really had a nice little move off the lows over the past few days. Oracle's the one that everybody's worried about their debt and their cash flow and all that crap. Meta, up 50 bucks today. It gapped up. Meta had news. And again, I wonder about a lot of news that are announced to move stocks. that were dead. I don't know. Meta is reporting building a cloud business to sell access

to artificial intelligence compute. And I was just asking myself one question. Isn't everybody else doing that? I don't know. We'll see. Anyway, meta, which has been dead, gaps up 50 bucks today. I think at one time today it was actually up, 66. It got, well, it got back in more the last few weeks, but still pretty much way down from the highs. Let's see, hit a high of almost 800. August of 25. It closed at 612 today, 613, and it was up 50.

That's how bad the stock has been. Ouch. Financials had a better day today. could have been better but the market came in a little bit Caterpillar as we have said to you it is an artificial intelligence stock

as we've said to you things are so weird the stock went from in two days not making this up 992 to a thousand seventy three

in two days to the high yesterday It's back to $9.92 today. Down $73. And this is a Dow stock. And this is what we mean by potentially wide and loose. So let me just say heads up on the semis and AI. Heads up.

That's a good way to put it. Heads up. and we just wonder if we're going to hit some moment. And by the way, they have to correct sometime, right? Heads up. What else? Insurance. Don't know what's going on there, but travelers broke out and is up like 6, 7%.

Allstate broke out. Chubb broke out today. I believe VOIA and Oonumerate New Yearly highs. Insurance stocks. Great business. Do they ever lose? Yeah, I guess they do. They have their moments.

But they just raise their premiums, right? Get away with it. Speaking of insurance, and it's kind of like that, the managed care stocks, another good day. United Health was dead, and it's been coming on pretty well. Today, Elevance, ELV, up 29 bucks today, 7.5%. So that group is doing pretty darn good right now. And I believe what you got going, government just pays them a lot of money.

Simple as that. So the managed care group and medicals, we've been saying to you, overall, better. Not everything, but better. A lot of jello moving on the plate kids. Steel stocks, they've topped out. The metals in mining like copper aluminum, topped out. there are voids now the oils avoids

the commodity space mostly avoids so changes afoot the other thing I'm watching closely now yields gaped up today yields gaped up today I do not want to see yields

get hit I don't want to see yields get hit to the upside that would be bad news yields in oil. Oil was down again today. Love it. 68 bucks.

The USO has gone from 154 to 103. That's the main ETF that I follow. That's good news. President was correct. Once they opened the straight, oil prices would come down. That wasn't hard to figure out because traders, speculators and investors what do they do? They sell the oil or short it and it comes down. And you will see it at the pump. It's already happening and there'll be more if this continues. And I'm pretty sure it will.

I think oil prices have another five to ten percent to go on the downside. And then we'll be back to, I'll call it somewhat equilibrium. And that's good. Well done. And hopefully the president clams it up and stops blaming everybody. Yeah, your gas stations, if you don't go to 250, what did the Treasury Secretary say? We're watching you. Isn't that great? Nice to know your government's watching you.

Hey, thanks. One of my complaints of them. And may I state quite valid. That's not their job. As we said, the Dow was only down 13, but Caterpillar was down about 480 Dow points. Up next, what else be going on? This is the one only Investor's Edge. You're listening to.

What are we waiting for? Well, what are you waiting for? One, two, ready, go. Action! In investors' edge. With Gary Culper. And welcome once again to Investor's Edge. I've been getting a lot of emails from people that think we are going into recession and things are about to get bad.

I've been getting a lot of that. I'm just letting you know. I'm not seeing it. Yet. And I always say yet because you never know. But let me give you some for instances. Number one. I've never seen a recession in the economy without the market crapping out first.

I've never seen one. The one thing, well, the market's good at a lot of things, but very important, the market has always flushed out bad economies by selling off beforehand. 10, 15%, and then you hear about the bad economy. So I'm not there. Leave no doubt, oh, we got issues. I do believe a bunch of the economy is on stilts brought to by, they're spending $2.2 trillion more than they're taken in. That $2.2 trillion gets into the economy and helps things out,

shorter term. Longer term, as we have stated, they are just taunting the markets, kids. They're taunting the markets. So just letting you know, I'm just not in that camp as of yet. I will be in that camp

if the financials croak. The retail, well, retail stocks are not in good shape, but I think that has more to do with other things. So just let me know. I'm also getting a lot of emails about jobs because a lot of people are going on tube and telling you AI is going to take away jobs. I think AI will only take away jobs from people that are not needed. I don't think it's going to be otherwise. We are hearing

that some companies are doing that. I don't think it's going to proliferate. I got that word out. I'm just a big believer that great people are not going to be let go that easy. I do believe there's going to be certain industries that will be able to use AI more than others and affect things.

I'm not in the camp like some others that all hell is going to break loose. And remember what we've told you a long time ago, make yourself indispensable if you were working for somebody else. One of the reasons I don't want to work for anybody ever again is because I see what happens out there very often. Not thrilled. So let me circle back.

Heads up. The semiconductor in the AI space is the most over-owned space we have ever seen. What does that mean? Everybody owns it, and it's a big piece of the funds. And we know by history that funds, once things turned, they're in meetings. How many shares do we have? And what could be great yesterday can be the dog tomorrow.

They hit Micron for $125 today, sand disk for 250. AMD for 41. AMD was up like 30 yesterday. That's what we mean by wide and loose. Seagate 60, Western Digital, 45. That's what we mean by wide and loose. Heads up. And we mean that loudly.

The big worry fundamentally, you know what that is. The spend. We worry how are they going to spend all that? And what kind of return is that going to be? These are valid things to think about. And we're always hopeful. But man, oh man, the spend and the debt. Not much more to add.

A couple of weeks, earnings, starts with the banks, and then the rest, I expect earnings to be pretty good. I think guidance should be good also because oil prices have come down. Whether or not that juices markets even more, I don't know. Will they disappoint? Well, they raise the bar. So a tougher bar to get above. But heads up.

And you know, the last time I said heads up was in November for crypto. in a big way. You do remember that, right? We'll see what comes of it. You'll have a great evening drive carefully when you get home, do like we do. Quite simple. Make sure you hug your family, hug your children. They will feel better. You will feel better. I promise they will be well. Until tomorrow. Peace out. Bye-bye. This has been Investor's Edge with Gary Coltbaum on BizTalk. To listen to past episodes or to get in contact with Gary, go to GaryK.com. That's GaryK.com. Thank you.