Investor's Edge with Gary Kaltbaum - THEM YIELDS [11.09.2023]

Episode Date: November 9, 2023

https://garykaltbaum.com/

Guys, it's no use putting it off. The best time for an underwear refresh is now. Tommy John underwear is designed for a perfect fit that stays put all day. Their zero-chafe thanks to four times more stretch than competing brands. And their innovative horizontal quick-draw fly is a game changer. With over 30 million pairs sold, there are thousands of men out there more comfortable than you. Don't settle for less. Go to Tommyjohn.com today for 25% off your first order with Code Comfort.

That's Tommyjohn.com, code comfort. Tommy John. Comfort perfected. Investor's Edge with Gary Coltbaum. Straight talk about you and your money. Now from the BizTalk Studios, here is Gary Cultbaum. And welcome once again to Investors Edge. I'm Gary Coltbaum, your host. A thanks of being with us today.

Glad you here, ladies and gentlemen, or maybe you're not. Happy that you're listening, or maybe you're not. I'm Gary Colbombeam. And we have lots to talk about today. Yes, you never know how we're going to start the day. This is a serious talk on you and everything that affects you, whether it's markets, the economy, jobs, unemployment, taxes, deficit spending, scams, shams, corruption, those people in D.C. and whatever else. But got to start today with the most important part of the equation that we've been talking about for quite a while. So listen carefully.

We're going to do a little lesson time today when it comes to the market and when it comes to bonds. Recently, the market has been rallying as yields have come down markedly in the last eight, nine trading days. Yields which were bumping up at 5% dropped down to 4.5. Now, that may not sound like a lot, but it's a hell of a lot. And what did the market do? The direct correlation markets rallied. If you go back the last three years, you can basically, yields go up, market goes down, yields go down, market goes up. It's never 100%, but in recent times, it's kind of sort of been. And our job is not easy. Because just remember, the bond market, that is people betting on, yields and where they should they be. And there's so much information coming out on a daily basis that would move them up or down. Of course, you had central banks for a while rigging and manipulating the whole thing,

playing God with the biggest market in the world. We had one man print to $9 trillion. By the way, we're not making this up. and I know it's just the number, but you're going to have to trust me when I say it's not just gargantuan. It's over the top, unbelievably gargantuan amounts that took over the bond market. And what he did was he bought the hell out of bonds and it took rates down to zero. The 10-year yield was trading yields were near zero. recently it's back to 5%.

Why? Because the free markets took over. He had to stop printing money. But let's fast forward. Let's fast forward. In July, we saw yield start to get going again to the upside, and we got out of the way of the market. Luckily, or skill, hard work, and markets came down, yields went up until last week.

Now, we're being told, listen carefully, the reason why yields were coming down was because inflation has been coming down. The rate of inflation has been coming down. You know, we were growing inflation at 8, 9%, and now it's 3, 3.5%. which is definitely better than 8, 9%, but still, it's not like prices are coming down. Going up 10% last year and then 3% this year is 13%.

Okay, I digress. But there's another part of the equation, the one I have been talking about and telling you, while others have been taught, actually some of my exact words, to you have been, well, while others keep saying inflation and yields, we keep saying debt and yields. What do we mean by that? Well, here comes lesson number one, which you should know already, but just in case you don't, lesson number one. The more debt an entity has, the more lenders,

those that are lending money, buying the bonds of that entity, will demand a higher yield for the risk of having that much more debt. That's why you have fluctuations in bond markets. Take, for instance, a corporation. Let's say a corporation is doing okay, and they float some bonds. It doesn't matter how many years out. Let's just say it's 6%.

and let's just say the corporation goes under hard times and the thought processes oh boy they're in trouble and they may not be able to pay off that debt oh boy oh boy well what do you think is going to happen to the price of that debt

it's going to go down the yields are going to skyrocket and if they're going to need to raise more debt they're going to have to pay more in yields simple as that that's how it works well my worry has been our country the insanity and the amount of debt is insane the insanity is insane the numbers are outrageous they're gargantuan and it's guaranteed to get worse we had a debate last night of the Republican Party and the debate host did not bring it up

and the people on the dais did not bring it up I think somebody may have mentioned that once as an aside we have 33 trillion of debt that means they spent 33 trillion more than they were supposed to and it's guaranteed guaranteed, guaranteed to go to 50 and beyond. In fact, just months ago, they did a debt ceiling deal, a debt ceiling deal,

where Joe Biden and even the Republicans went on TV and said, we're on top of things now, this will solidify. our debt's gone up two trillion since the debt ceiling deal. Not kidding. Since the debt ceiling deal, two trillion. So the market's been rallying some. We've rallied up. And it's so weird because I have seen some people say, oh, what a great rally. And I'm thinking to myself, all we did was get back some of the 10 days before. Okay, I'm all for it. Terrific. We'll throw a party. All good. Terrific. But what about the debt? What about the debt? Well, here's the problem. A bunch of the debt is coming due. The debt is coming due.

and once that debt gets done and due and matures, it has to roll over into what? Debt again. Which means our government has to come out and say, well, one trillion bucks just came due and we were only paying 2% on it. Well, we're going to float.

Now we've got to do 4.5% or whatever that number is. So what they do is they have another bond auction. They put it out there. It's a bond auction. Simple is that. And it goes out to the market and it's bid on. And then the bond market will move based on how strong it is.

In other words, if there's voracious buying, Veracious buying, that's good news. Because yields won't go up. They'll come down. But if buying is timid or lackluster, for lack of a better word, rates will go higher. And due to the fact, we have a crap load of debt to come out, what's the worry? Up next, we'll give you the worry. This is the one only Investor's Edge.

Hi, I'm Gary Kalbaum, hosted a nationally syndicated radio show Investors Edge. We're not just handsome radio people. We manage investors' money for a living, specializing in fee-based discretionary money management. No big commissions, just a fee on the assets that's managed. We also provide a full range of personalized services, including retirement planning, fixed income, and educational needs, all to assist you in achieving your financial goals.

Understanding not all individuals have the same needs, we'll carefully evaluate your personal goals to determine a proper investment strategy. If your current approach to investing is not getting you to where you would like to be, call us to make an appointment for a complimentary portfolio review. The number to call is 888-4-22-559. That's 888-4-2-5-9.

That's 888-4-2-2-2-8-4-2. 5-5-59. Investment advisory services offered through call-bomb capital management. Guys, it's no use putting it off. The best time for an underwear refresh is now. Tommy John Underwear is designed

for a perfect fit that stays put all day. Their zero-chafe thanks to four times more stretch than competing brands, and their innovative horizontal quick-draw-fly is a game-changer. With over 30 million pairs sold, there are thousands of men out there more comfortable than you.

Don't settle for less. Go to Tommyjohn.com today for 25% off your first order with Code Comfort. That's Tommyjohn.com code comfort. Tommy John. Comfort perfected. This message is brought to you by the Capital One VentureX card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect.

Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000, airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply. Lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details. This episode is brought to you by Sprecker. The platform responsible for a rapidly spreading condition known as podcast brain. Symptoms include buying microphones you don't need, explaining RSS feeds to confused relatives, and saying things like, sorry, I can't talk right now, I'm editing audio. If this sounds familiar,

you're probably already a podcaster. The good news is Spreaker makes the whole process simple. You record your show, upload it once, and Spreaker distributes it everywhere people listen. Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and about a dozen apps your cousin swears are the next big thing. Even better, Spreaker helps you monetize your show with ads, meaning your podcast might someday pay for, well, more microphones. Start your show today at spreeker.com. Sprinker, because if you're going to talk to yourself for an hour, you might as well publish it.

It's time to switch on the integrator units and get the brain cells working. You're listening to. Hey, this promises to be fun. Investors Edge. The last bastion of quality programming. With Gary Coltbaum. It doesn't get better than this. So, in our effort today to do a lesson on the bond market, well, we had a bond auction today.

Now there are those that are saying Well Jay Powell talked and said something And that affected things and this that and the other thing happened Okay, whatever We did a $24 billion 30-year bond auction And guess what happened The 30-year bond went from 4.656 4.656 to 4.7

7-7. What does that tell you? The appetite at the lower yields was not there. Bonds sold off. Guess what the stock market did? That is correct. One plus one equals two. Now we're not talking end of the world scenarios. But when you have a market that just before this rally, we had a thousand stocks at New Yearly lows. Just before this rally, by our estimates, 80% of stocks in downtrends. In this rally, well, that 80, our guess, turned into 65. Well, what happened to that 15? well they kind of turn the corner while the whole market the floor lifted up downtrends were not changed except think housing the complexion change housing stocks and a couple other areas a few stocks here and there

but they certainly did not turn into anything resembling uptrends so simply put at the close today The Dow, and we'll go from the high to the low, the Dow today hit 34167. It closed at 33-8-9-1, down 220 on the day. A little bit of a reversal. The NASDAQ, which hit 1367 early, was up about 68 points, finished down 129-299. NASDAQ 100 finished down 125 The transports Which had hit 14-519

Finish at 14266 So it was up like 100 Finish down 150 And don't get me started on the Russell 2000 Which is the south end of a northbound jackass anyhow That had rallied up a little bit in recent days But in the major downtrend So we're just letting you know, just letting you know, bonds got in the way today.

That's all. Bonds got in the way today. And with a nascent, notice the big word from your handsome and buffed host, nascent rally, not a great thing to see. What I was hoping for, and really what I was hoping for, the market would shrug it off. It did not. Not the end of the world.

Not the end of the world. By any stretch of the imagination, not the end of the world. But with the internal so crappy, not so sure it'll take much. So we'll see what tomorrow brings. And of course, the next day and the next day and the next day and the next day. That was the story today. the lenders to our government on a 30-year basis had no interest in only getting 4.66%. They wanted 4.77. That's how it works.

And our simple worry, and it's a logical worry, because we're going from 33 to 50 trillion. Somebody's got to lend. that's all debt because it's an insane asylum in D.C. And when I say those words and I know we're under the radar, it's an insane asylum. Finally, some very famous people are saying what we've been saying for years. I am stunned that Joe Biden took our government from $4.4 trillion the year before COVID, it's going to be $6.5 trillion this year. A almost 50% drop in the size of government and it's all debt and nobody gives a crap.

All these protests going on today, they should be protesting. No, really, they should be protesting what our government's doing. The utter destruction of the future. When I say to you, a trillion of our tax dollars every year is going towards interest, Imagine this. Our whole federal budget in 2000 was $1.8 trillion, but they're telling us right now, $1 trillion each year is going towards interest because of all that debt. And that's going to grow.

Imagine $1 trillion of our tax dollars not going towards what they tell us they need the money for. The elderly. The food stamps. The children that are hungry. The streets, the roads, the bridges. What does Biden say? The infrastructure. The infrastructure.

The downtrodden. The grid. A trillion each year is gone because of what Biden and the rest of them. By the way, Biden's been there since $500 billion total debt. So he is the most guilty party just because of longevity. Of course, he wasn't in power for four years under Trump, who sucked also. Yet the Republican Party has him at 60%. Amazing.

Anyway, that's the story of the bond market today. What does it mean to tomorrow? I have no clue. I have absolutely no clue what it means for to tomorrow. I have no clue what the market does tomorrow. I just know the market today hit a wall based on yields again. Up next, last night's debate. This is the one only investors' edge.

Guys, it's no use putting it off. The best time for an underwear refresh is now. Tommy John underwear is designed for a perfect fit that stays put all day. Their zero-chafe thanks to four times more stretch than competing brands, and their innovative horizontal quick draw fly is a game changer. With over 30 million pairs sold, there are thousands of men out there more comfortable than you. Don't settle for less. Go to Tommyjohn.com today for 25% off your first order with Code Comfort.

That's Tommyjohn.com code comfort. Tommy John. Comfort perfected. This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit. for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination.

Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply, lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details. This episode is brought to you by Spreaker. The platform responsible for a rapidly spreading condition known as podcast brain. Symptoms include buying microphones you don't need.

explaining RSS feeds to confused relatives, and saying things like, sorry, I can't talk right now, I'm editing audio. If this sounds familiar, you're probably already a podcaster. The good news is Spreaker makes the whole process simple. You record your show, upload it once, and Spreaker distributes it everywhere people listen, Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and about a dozen apps your cousin's swears are the next big thing. Even better, Spreaker helps you monetize your show with ads, meaning your podcast might someday pay for, well, more my...

microphones. Start your show today at spreeker.com. Spreaker, because if you're going to talk to yourself for an hour, you might as well publish it. We're listening to America is talking. Investors Edge. He's got to be pleased with that. The crowd is just on his feet here. He's a Cinderella boy. With Gary Coltbaum. It comes highly recommended. You're going to feel better if you talk to him. And what once again to Investors Edge. by the way and it's not an aside. Fortunately, as you know, I think these people that are out protesting for Hamas, they're idiots.

They're morons, they're imbeciles. But you could not get into an debate with them because it's a total waste of time. We are finding out that somehow, you know, we've been told, I've been told for years that bad things have been going on at the colleges and that they're teaching a lot of bad Marxist crap and upside down crap. And I'm like, no way. Well, they were. Fortunately, there have been people out there that went into these protests

and acted like they were part of the protests and started asking a bunch of these people who were protesting questions. It's some of the funniest but unfunny crap I've seen in a very long. time. Most of them don't even know where Israel is on the map. Most of them have no idea what Hamas is or who Hamas is. Most of not a clue about anything. It's almost the funniest crap. I still remember, I'm trying to think who it was. Many years ago, somebody did a question and answer, somebody, I think it was all the way back in Bill Clinton,

a Bill Clinton backer. And, oh, I'm sorry, Sarah Palin, whoever Sarah Palin was vice president running with and all that stuff. And they went up to the person who was totally anti-Sarapelan and said, so did you hear, whoever they were running against at the time,

that they were for so-and-so, yes, definitely so and for it. Definitely for it. Definitely for that. Oh, definitely for that. Oh, definitely for that. Oh, definitely for that. And then the person said, by the way, those are all Sarah Palin's proposals. And by the way, I'm just bringing up one thing. I'm just stating for the record, these people don't even have a freaking clue.

We have been watching videos and testimony. I don't even want to repeat it. the you know we use the word depravity to describe and I saw somebody say that none of it happened it was all Israel creating artificial intelligence videos even though they have the Hamas terrorists that were caught confessing to what they did this is what we're dealing with just sheer insanity. And I guess there's safe, something about numbers.

Oh, let's just join because here's people protesting this and that. Most of them don't even know what they're protesting. Not even a clue. There's only one fact. Israel hasn't been in Gaza since 2005.

They gave the keys to Palestine and the Palestinian people, and they handed it over to Hamas, who have destroyed, absolutely destroyed the area. They took all the money and stole it. You know the five top Hamas, whatever you want to call them, are worth billions of dollars and live in Qatar or Qatar, whatever they call it. That's what they plundered everything and built miles and miles and miles. miles and miles of tunnels and bought billions and billions of billions and billions of

weaponry and starve the people and if you're gay they murder you if you talk against them they murder you they rape women and they teach kids to hate and murder that's it that's all it is. They've been gone, Israel. They've had nothing to do with them. And they're getting blamed. It's the stupidest thing I've ever seen. And it's in plain sight. In plain sight. And how do I know this? I was there. I've been there. I've seen Palestinian land. They don't take, they didn't take care of it. It's a dumpster. Go into Israel. My goodness. Magnificance. So I don't know how this happened, how we got here. The good news is, and this is what I really do believe,

the 99% of us that don't believe this crap are just going about our business while these people are spending their days protesting bull crap. Bull crap. And you always want to try to, I guess the word is, talk to somebody make them understand I've said to you with the movie war games

there was a part in it where they said something to the thing of tick-tac-toe why even play the game nobody can ever win that's what I think and I'm finding people

that I know their kids have been indoctrinated we'll just keep on keeping on that's all I can tell you. That's it. That was today. And then you have this Talib piece of crap. She knows exactly what River to the Sea means. That is, Jewish people should die. Jewish people should die. She's advocating the murder of Jewish people. And I know it. She knows it. She knows it. Everybody knows it. She got sent

Gee gosh. So a sitting congresswoman is advocating the death of every Jew around this world and the destruction of the Jewish state. She gets a vote on our future. I just want you to remember that. And of course, we believe the media is complicit. Oh, you saw this man is dead. A Palestinian of him with a megaphone hit his head on thing. And I gather there's going to be some. some homicide charges. We haven't heard anything yet. Imagine if this was another George Floyd incident, what the media would be doing. There's no protest for that. By the way, these protesters,

do you think they're protesting the murder of millions of Muslims in Syria or the Muslims Uyghurs that are in internment camps in China? What about Russia invading Ukraine and the murder of all those people? Where are the protests? Oh, that's right. That's right. It's the Jewish thing.

So just letting you know, tick-tac-toe, we'll keep reporting. They did some four-hour deal each day now of not a ceasefire, but a stop, whatever. Here's the good news. Israel's destroying all their tunnels. Destroyed. They ain't getting through crap anymore. They're getting all their ammunition. They're getting all their missiles, all their guns, all their rifles. They're taking out all the terrorists. And then when Israel's going to be done, they're going to sit down, hopefully with some reasonable people.

You want to live life peacefully. That's who we are. That's what Israel has always been. And we'll see. By the way, have you noticed other Arab countries? They had a side a little bit with Palestine, the Palestinians. If you notice they've been quiet, you know why? Because they're partners in peace, as well as financially with Israel, which is a magnificent democracy and a financial epicenter in the Middle East of technology and medical, and you name it.

We'll keep reporting. And you know what? We hate the fact we even have to report it. But it is important. It's going to matter a lot going forward. This is not Israel against Hamas This is The world

You back terrorism Isis types Up next We'll segue back And whatever else This is the one only investors' edge Guys, it's no use putting it off The best time for an underwear refresh is now

Tommy John underwear is designed For a perfect fit that stays put all day Their zero-chafe thanks to four times more stretch than competing brands, and their innovative horizontal quick-draw fly is a game-changer. With over 30 million pairs sold, there are thousands of men out there more comfortable than you. Don't settle for less. Go to Tommyjohn.com today for 25% off your first order with Code Comfort. That's Tommyjohn.com code comfort.

Tommy John. Comfort perfected. This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card.

What's in your wallet? Terms apply, lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details. This episode is brought to you by Spreker. The platform responsible for a rapidly spreading condition known as podcast brain. Symptoms include buying microphones you don't need, explaining RSS feeds to confused relatives, and saying things like, sorry, I can't talk right now, I'm editing audio. If this sounds familiar, you're probably already a podcaster.

The good news is Spreaker makes the whole process simple. You record your show, upload it once, and Spreaker distributes it everywhere people listen, Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and about a dozen apps your cousin's swears are the next big thing. Even better, Spreaker helps you monetize your show with ads, meaning your podcast, might someday pay for, well, more microphones. Start your show today at spreeker.com. Sprinker, because if you're going to talk to yourself for an hour, you might as well publish it. You're listening to.

What are we waiting for? Well, what are you waiting for? One, two, ready, go. Action! In The Wester's Edge. With Gary Culper. You know, we always get asked about earnings and how we try to play it, and stuff like that.

Well, we're pretty simplistic. We're scared out of our wits when it comes to earnings. If we don't own something within a couple of weeks of earnings and the stock's acting well and it gives me buy points, I'm probably not going to touch it. Of course, anything in defined downtrends, I'm not going to touch it. And yes, we'll miss some good ones.

but man oh man yes we'll miss the bad ones I'm looking at a stock called Trade desk that closed at 76 bucks it's trading at 55 in the aftermarket how do you like to have that one and that's been rallying up with the rest of the market the last seven days so let me be a little repetitive so you understand

the thought process and what we're seeing and how we're seeing it. Yields, yields, yields. It's the best way I can explain it. Nothing more, nothing less. It's a defining factor. It's the defining force right now. It's a direct correlation.

Correlations will change in the market. But until it doesn't change, it's what we watch the most. and today the bids on the bonds were not strong enough so rates had a problem and that's what caused the markets to come down rates can go right back down tomorrow we're absolutely positively explaining to you what happened today. And due to the fact that pretty much 65 to 70% remain in downtrends, caution, we'll see. Tomorrow is another day. Maybe another bond auction to come soon, and it'll be better. We just continue to worry how are they going to cover all this debt going forward. The thought process, well, it's our government that's always going to pay. And they're right.

but that still doesn't mean rates can't go markedly higher if they wanted to. We're not sure. We're not that smart. We don't want to be Carnac the Magnificent. Well, we'd like to. That's Johnny Carson, by the way. Semiconductors were strong early, reversed. They look really good early.

Let's see if they reassert themselves tomorrow. They could. But a day, guess what happened today? 1,067 up on the New York, 2886 down on the New York. 1,026 up on the NASDAQ, 3,074 down. So rough day again, advance decline-wise. If rates on the 10-year head back into 5 and higher, all bets are off. And Jay Powell spoke today.

I'm sorry, he don't mean a thing at this juncture. sure if you ask me. As long as he's not printing money, he has no control whatsoever. And I'm just watching the free market. That'll tell me everything I need to know. As far as inflation, it had to come down. Price does that. But I have to tell you, I just look at chips. I look at cereal. They're still at their highest prices they've been. and the size of the boxes and the bags are smaller. Inflation, shrinkflation. That's still going on.

We'll keep you informed. In political news, Joe Manchin says he's no longer going to run for the Senate. I got two words for Joe Manchin and nothing personal. Go screw. He had a chance to be a hero. He could have stopped. this latest nonsense by Joe Biden. $2 trillion of deficits this year.

Joe Manchin could have stopped it. No, because of this, that, and the other thing, and he's given this, that, and the other thing. And now Joe Manchin has come out and stated that, oh, he was conned by Joe Biden. Well, no blank. I'm wondering if Manchin is going to run for the independent side. In case you don't know Robert Kennedy, I believe is polling pretty well as an independent. That could shake trees.

But you know where we stand on them all. 33 trillion of debt on purpose. With forethought and the worst of all time in Joe Biden still running the show. An old age is not an excuse. He took the championship belt from Trump, who took it away from Obama, who took it away from Bush. And no, I would not be surprised if the 10-year keeps going higher because of that debt. So rough day today. Was promising, but yields should tell you they still dominate.

Tomorrow's another day, hopefully better. The 10-year yield right now, as I look at it, that 4.5% important juncture, a break below would be great. Higher, not so great. Tomorrow, Adam may be doing the show, not 100%. We'll let you know. Well, if I'm there, I'm there. You have a great evening drive carefully when you get home to like we do. Make sure you hug your family.

Make sure you hug your children. They will feel better. You will feel better. I promise. Thanks for joining. Appreciate you all. Have a good night. This has been Investors Edge with Gary Cult Bomb on BizTalk.

To listen to past episodes or to get in contact with Gary, go to GaryK.com. That's GaryK.com. Guys, it's no use putting it off. The best time for an underwear refresh is now. Tommy John Underwear is designed for a perfect fit that stays put all day. Their zero chafe thanks to four times more stretched than competing brands, and

their innovative horizontal quick draw fly is a game changer. With over 30 million pairs sold, there are thousands of men out there more comfortable than you. Don't settle for less. Go to Tommyjohn.com today for 25% off your first order with code comfort. That's Tommyjohn.com, code comfort.

Tommy John. Comfort, perfected. This message is brought to you by the Capital One VentureX card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply. Lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details.