Investor's Edge with Gary Kaltbaum - THEY DON'T SHUT UP [04.04.2024]

Episode Date: April 4, 2024

https://garykaltbaum.com/

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Investor's Edge with Gary Cultbaum. Straight talk about you and your money. Now from the BizTalk Studios, here is Gary Cultbaum. The Mets are 0 and 5. That's how I have to start the show. As you know, I am quite the... I think the Mets and the Giants are right there in... what I care about.

And sports, the Knicks, since they haven't done squat since I, 72, their last championship, it's so tough to even. But the Mets, 0 and 5, lost another heartbreaker today. They were up 3-0, gave up three late runs, and then lost in the 11th inning, to the Detroit Tigers, who, by the way, are 5 and O. So I'm in a mood. But anyway, hey, what's happening? In case you don't know, this is Investor's Edge.

Serious talk on everything that affects you. We do the markets, the economy, jobs, unemployment, taxes, deficit spending, scams, shams, corruption. War. Threat of war. And what do they call it? Is it hoof and mouth disease? Let me Google that to make sure that's not a bad thing.

Hoof and mouth disease is a violent and common in young children, sores in the mouth. But it also connotates somebody doesn't shut the heck up. I hear that too. That's one of the, we're very careful with our words here. we're very careful with our words. We're very careful with what we say. We're very careful in everything we do. And in case you don't know, we've been doing this show for a long time.

We've been on TV for a long time. I'm on TV four to five times a week. And often, last week, I was going on with Neil Cavuto on Friday. and what they do is they say, hey, we just want to talk about this. And they don't know, I don't know how he's going to ask it, whatever, but he came at me with three different other things. So it's not that easy. But we've been doing this for a long time and we really want to be careful about how we convey things. And the reason is we're talking about you and your savings and what you are doing.

do with it. And when we say to you, here's the easy part. The easy part is what we just did with the Trump media, where we gave you that it's trading at a $9 billion market cap with $4 million in sales. Be careful. It's easy for us to say, if we went into a bare market, this thing's single digits. How do we know that? We've studied every bare market. That's really the easy part. say to you in bull markets, they can take that to $200 if they want to. And of course, it's gone from 80 down to 46 in short order, but we didn't know that would happen so quick. That's the easy part. What else is the easy part? Well, when we get definable trends and we can say to you, avoid this area. Avoid these names. Defineable.

trends to the downside. It's not hard. We know what they look like. We know what they act like. Defineable trends to the upside, somewhat easier, but tough because there's always something that you're dealing with on a daily basis. And then they're the tougher parts, the whipsaws. and what we mean by that is, and let me take that back, not the whipsawes, the changes, the potential changes, the trends going very nicely, and then, oops, hiccup, if the trend is up in the market and you get a hiccup, that does not mean the end of the world. it could be a correction. Just so you know, in bull markets that last a while, you will get 10% corrections. In the NASDAQ, you can get 15% corrections, which are very painful, but they find the low and turn up. But then there's the other part of the equation that we call the pain in the arse.

And it's something we have been complaining about for a very long time. and that is what's happened over the last 20 years with our central bankers. People used to complain about a gentleman by the name of Alan Greenspan. He was a central banker many moons ago, and lots of complaints about him. The complaints were Didn't talk enough. I love that. The complaints was, well, he did a little bit too much easy money, but that's what they all do.

But I used to be thrilled that they didn't talk much. But now, in case you don't know, there's voting member, central bankers, and non-voting member. And here is the problem. They don't shut up. I believe they did 29 speeches or totally this week, 29 speeches this week, and they don't shut up. And markets can be very temperamental. Remember, what I'm getting at is when all is said and done, it's not the news, it's not what somebody says. It's what the market does because of it that matters most.

and today, I'm not going to name names, I'll leave it alone, but one of the Dults, who was one of the most easy money adults back yonder when they were printing money, who I complained about a ton, came out today and contradicted others, and then a second one came out and did the same, and basically they said, well, if inflation's too strong, we can't cut rates this year. Now, as you know,

we've been telling you, commodity prices have been going up. That's not good news. How can you be talking inflation under control when the CRB index, commodity research bureau index of 19 commodities is multi-year highs or close to?

Coco has done a moonshot. Gold, silver, copper, palladium. I don't even know what the heck palladium is. And we were going along our business today and the market cratered on one man's yapping. The market cratered on one man's yapping. Now, some are blaming it on, it's getting heated between Iran and Israel. But I have news via Iran ain't doing squat. They'll do their little this, that, and the other thing.

but they ain't getting tough. We have told you when it came to the S&P how on November 14th, since that day, there hasn't been even a peep on the market. It has just been a nice, quiet little trend up along this little trend line. You can draw a line diagonally.

And we don't know what one day means. You never know what comes tomorrow, but today's the first day since November 14th that the S&P did some squiggly-wiggly, notice my professionalism with volume, on a reversal, on I hate to say this, important people's yapping. I hate to say it. On important people's yapping. They do matter, unfortunately, and they shouldn't. I was on with Stuart Varney this morning. He said, what is the Fed done wrong? I said, well, they're still in business. They laughed. So we're just going to let you know at the end of today was the first day since November 14th, where we have to start thinking a little differently. Not necessarily the death now.

It's only one down day. And by the way, one and a quarter percent. But up next, we'll explain why one and a quarter percent can be important. That's up next on Investor's Edge. Hi, I'm Gary Kalbaum, hosted a nationally syndicated radio show Investors Edge. We're not just handsome radio people. We manage investors' money for a living, specializing in fee-based discretionary money management.

No big commissions, just a fee on the assets that's managed. We also provide a full range of personalized services, including retirement planning, fixed income, and educational needs, all to assist you in achieving your financial goals. Understanding not all individuals have the same needs, we'll carefully evaluate your personal goals to determine a proper investment strategy. If your current approach to investing is not getting you to where you would like to be, call us to make an appointment for a complementary portfolio review. The number to call is 888-4-22-55-9. That's 8-8-8-8-4-2-5-9. That's 888-4-2-2-5-5-9. Investment Advisory Services offered through call-bomb capital management.

Hi, I'm Dr. Jake Goodman, host of Beyond the Script, the podcast where I sit down with pharmacists to answer the health questions you didn't even know you could ask at the pharmacy counter. In this episode, we are diving into gut health with CVS pharmacist Victoria Motola, who explains why so many of us live with stomach issues we should not accept as normal. A lot of what I see is just like chronic bloating, chronic stomach aches. Like I get a stomachache every time that I eat. And it just becomes like a lifestyle where, oh, yeah, you know, I just have a stomachache every day. Or I'm constantly feeling like gassy.

And all of those things are not something that generally, if you have a healthy gut, you should be living with. So that's when we deep dive. We deep dive into your medication. We deep dive into your OTC medication. And then at that point, we can probably identify something that we can change. Hear the full conversation, plus some fascinating facts about how gut health affects so much more than just your stomach on Beyond the Script, a podcast from CVS Pharmacy and IHeart Radio. Listen now wherever you get your podcasts. Struggling to see up close, make it visible with Viz.

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Funds could be available as soon as tomorrow. Depending on certain loan attributes, your business loan may be issued by On Deck or Celtic Bank. OnDak does not lend in North Dakota. All loans and amount subject to lender approval. It's time to switch on the integrator units and get the brain cells working. You're listening to. Hey, this promises to be fun. Investors Edge.

The last bastion of quality programming. with Gary Coltbaum. It doesn't get better than this. So we want to make sure, look how serious we are today. We want to make sure that you don't put words into our mouth. So let me say it succinctly.

Today could be some sort of shot across the bow. And by the way, I think we use those words a month ago and I think we dropped for another day and a half and we stopped going down. Full and fair disclosure. But today's action

worse than what the last time we use that word and we'll see what tomorrow brings. There's two issues to combine. Number one, the action but remember the other part. Listen carefully. The extreme. Complacent sentiment.

No bears. Short selling way down. Nobody betting on the downside. Why is that important? Well, extreme sentiment, if market changes, can be important. If the market's bearish, bearish, bearish, and then everybody ends up bearish, that means everybody, the masses have sold out

And if things can start turning, what are they got to do? Oh, get back in, get back in. And that fuels the upside until the sentiment goes from extreme to normal. Now we have the opposite. Everyone is bullish. Everybody is in. Everything is great. Everything is wonderful.

And now possibly, notice my words. We don't want words being put into our mouth. There is potential here that we find. finally hit a moment that I think is necessary. Could be, possibly. We have yet to do our scans, but we know what we're pretty much going to find. And tomorrow will be another day. Maybe the Fedhead will change his stance.

Who the hell knows? Whatever. Also of note, and we want to harken back about a month, on March 8th, The all-important semiconductors had what we call somewhat of a climactic, big reversal to the downside. And the semis are really important to our work. The semis never got back near the highs. In fact, the semiconductor index got back to the lows of that day and many names not even close. And all-important NVIDIA today didn't finish well.

we haven't scanned yet. We're too busy watching the globe. We'll do our scans. We think we know we're going to find. Possibly, maybe, could be hit a moment here. And again, we'll see what tomorrow brings. At the very least, we're overdue. At the very least, when you go from November 14th to April 4th,

on these SPY, this S&P, with Nary a worry. Nary a worry. Notice that big word Nary, hardly ever used. That's a long time for Nary a worry. And as I say to you, and I've said on TV, market is not used to going too long keeping smiles on faces. So it was only 1.22% today on the S&P? The Dow today at the close was down

530. After being up, 39421. Really, we were almost 40,000. Is that right? That can't be. right 39 421 we finished at 38597 we were up 200 today 300 that's a big reversal 39421 we dropped almost 800 points from the high up more than 800 points from the high let's call it 824 points from the high let's call it 824 points I got to get out my

So just so you know, the definition of distribution is what we saw today. It's my belief it's off them yapping, but others think it has to do with Israel and Iran. When all is said and done, yeah, 824 points. When all is said and done, what we're going to care about is outcome. is outcome and today was for us technical

analysts icky the Dow broke below the 50 day moving average at the close today that's a first

since November the S actually it's been holding around the 21 day and just went through today like a hot knife

and butter the S&P broke the 21 day at the close if a good data mark and get it back above. The NASDAQ broke the 21 day. The NASDAQ 100, yeah, did the same, and the NASDAQ 100 is actually a little bit below the 50-day moving average. So pretty sure we get some sort of change of complexion here. And some of the real strength in the market came in today. And we own two names that are as real strength.

meta was up 20-something today, still finished up 4, but was up 20-something. That's what happens when the market changes 824 points. So just letting you know, it's not the news. It's how the market reacts to the news. And we just wanted to start it straight up with this. And we'll have a lot more to say to our peeps tonight. I'm going to finish the show, lay down. with Winston relax for a half hour, scan for an hour, webcasts for half hour, and prepare for New York tomorrow.

By the way, father, doing much better and we're finding things out. Dehydrated. Too much valium that's been prescribed. And once weaned off and hydrated, sounding much better, doing much better. But they're going to keep them in the hospital, I think, a few more. days at the age of 92 observation. Up next, and what else I got for you. I'm Gary. This is the one only investor's edge. Hi, I'm Dr. Jake Goodman, host of Beyond the Script, the podcast where I sit down with pharmacists to answer the health questions you didn't even know you could ask at the pharmacy

counter. In this episode, we are diving into gut health with CVS pharmacist Victoria Motola, who explains why so many of us live with stomach issues we should not accept as normal. A lot of what I see is just like chronic bloating, chronic stomach aches. Like I get a stomach ache every time that I eat. And it just becomes like a lifestyle where, oh, yeah, you know, I just, I have a stomach ache every day. Or I'm constantly feeling like gassy. And all of those things are not something that generally, if you have a healthy gut,

you should be living with. So that's when we deep dive. We deep dive into your medication, we deep dive into your OTC medication, and then at that point we can probably identify something that we can change. Hear the full conversation, plus some fascinating facts about how gut health affects so much more than just your stomach on Beyond the Script, a podcast from CVS Pharmacy and IHeart Radio. Listen now wherever you get your podcasts. Struggling to see up close, make it visible with Viz.

Viz is a once daily prescription eye drop to treat blurry near vision for up to take up to 10. 10 hours. The most common side effects that may be experienced while using Viz include eye irritation, temporary, dimmer, dark vision, headaches and eye redness. Talk to an eye doctor to learn if Viz is right for you. Learn more at Viz.com. Cashflow crunch. OnDek's small business line of credit gives your business immediate access to funds up to $200,000 right when you need it. Cover seasonal dips, manage payroll, restock inventory, or tackle unexpected expenses without missing a beat with flexible draws, transparent pricing, and control over repayment. Get funded quickly and confidently. Apply today at on deck.com. funds could be available as soon as tomorrow. Depending on certain loan attributes,

your business loan may be issued by On Deck or Celtic Bank. OnDak does not lend in North Dakota. All loans and amount subject to lender approval. We're listening to. America is talking. Investors Edge. He's got to be pleased with that. The crowd is just on its feet here.

He's a Cinderella boy. With Gary Colbomb. It comes highly recommended. You're going to feel better if you talk to him. Let's see. What else do I got for you? gold pullback today. It's been extended. Oil prices were up another buck 30 today, but oil stocks took a breather today, a few up, but mostly down because they are stocks, and stocks got hit. As I am looking around, yeah, they got the financials by the end of the day, and I measure that Goldman Sachs down seven today, Black Rock down 22. They got the semis today, Nvidia down 30. Lamb Research 27, KLA 10 Corps 25.

AMD, is that right? I got to double check that one. AMD was down 15 bucks. Am I right? Oh, that's cracked big time. Broadcombe 45, ASML Holdings 26. So, ew. Chipotle was down 40.

Keep in mind it's a $3,000 stock. just overall ick today. A lot of red when all was said and done. By the way, an 824 point reversal on the Dow. I didn't even realize the Dow was up almost 300 early. Wow. I did not even realize that. Heaven's to Murgatroyd.

Now, that's the central banks. And let me be clear. and I mean this sincerely they couldn't see an 18 wheeler coming down the highway I think they're blind as bats I don't think they have any clue I don't think they have any control of what they are what they do and all that fun stuff

and you couldn't be any more overrated could not be any more overrated yet that's all they talked about so what do we do now as we said the S&P did its first day

and as you know we sold all our tech on March 8th except for excuse me was it the March 8th was the reversal let me make sure I get that right

so you know March 8th it was the next day which was a Monday we kept meta we tried buying it back No, because you're not buying it back, buying again and then got out. We've added one other name, not going to mention.

And it was acting great and reversed by the end of today. Small, very tiny position. And we are in lots of cash coming into today and questioning ourselves a little bit. Shouldn't we have more? But there really hasn't been a lot of great setup. and really worried about the sentiment front. Really worried about the sentiment front. And that will see.

Now, moving on, Israel, Iran. As you know, one of the big stories, and oh, it is so heartbreaking. I don't know if you know who it is, but a gentleman by the name of Jose Andres, He, what a wonderful man. He's been going around the world in hot spots and sending people putting out food. He's a big time chef's, has a restaurant here in Disney Springs. And Israel, by accident, shot up a convoy of volunteers.

And that's a big, big, big problem. a big, big problem. And that's part of the questioning going on and where things are going and all that right now. And of course, the Iran thing. You know what I think, but still heartbreaking for any, just heartbreaking. People just there to do one thing. Help. And they're going to have to answer for it. And they are. But doesn't help the situation. That may be part of this. I don't know. But it's getting heated up. Israeli U.S. relations. The problem with Biden, very simple. He's about as inconsistent as inconsistent can be. need some consistency, but just prayers to those families and those who perished in that,

I don't care what anybody else, that's an accident, but somebody's got to answer for it. And of course, you know what we think of the enemy and Hamas. You never know what outcome is when you're dealing with sick twisted dictatorships will keep you apprised. on that. Sentiment every now and then could go coast to coast. You know what coast to coast is? Completely bullish to completely bullish.

Do you know how you get there? It's simple. Markets pull in. Gets people afraid. Changes how people feel. We'll see how it goes. Tomorrow's another day. We just want to.

repeat, today was a standout day. Today was a real standout day. Not on the good side. And we want you to remember one thing. When the market is ripe, bad stuff can be Teflon. When the market's in trouble, bad stuff will crash. You got that? Companies that were valuations are a joke. Little and no revenues loses a ton of money. You have been advised. Yields actually pulled back today. Interesting enough, that's a little bit surprising. Crypto, I don't even know what to tell you along those lines. We also told you recently a lot of software stocks had broken down. There are those that have been holding up pretty well. We're going to be watching those closely. One of them we were watching closely is a name called crowd strike. Some of you may have heard of it, some not. That broke below

the 50 day today. The IGV, which is the software ETF below the 50 day, does not mean it's going into a bare market, but you cannot ascend when you are below the 50 day moving average. Simple as that. Now, people always misconstrue those words. If you drop 20% below the 50 day real quickly and crash. You can rally up 10%. You're going up. We're talking about an ascending up trend. Not a bounce after getting

dunked. That's what we mean by that. And besides the Mets, being 0 and 5, they're in the second half of double header right now. I was actually in a pretty good mood today as my father sounded a lot better. And then the market

did its thing. Oh, well. Oh, well. Speaking of the Fed, there was a Fed head. I never even heard of our Adriana Coogler says if disinflation and labor market conditions proceed as I am currently expected, then some lowering of the policy rate this year would be appropriate. Of course, the other person said the opposite, but disinflation, she's predicting disinflation, while oil prices and all these commodities are skyrocketing, what do we tell you about listening? to the market, we just don't think, remember, these are the people that said inflation was

transitory when it was going to 9%, which is stunning. They continue to worry us, continues to worry us. Up next, what else is going on? And there is a bunch. I'm Gary. This is the one only investors edge. Hi, I'm Dr. Jay Goodman, host of Beyond the Script, the podcast where I sit down with pharmacist to answer the health questions you didn't even know you could ask at the pharmacy

counter. In this episode, we are diving into gut health with CVS pharmacist, Victoria Motola, who explains why so many of us live with stomach issues we should not accept as normal. A lot of what I see is just like chronic bloating, chronic stomach aches. Like I get a stomach ache every time that I eat and it just becomes like a lifestyle where, oh yeah, you know, I just I have a stomach kick every day, or I'm constantly feeling like gassy. And all of those things are not something that generally, if you have a healthy gut, you should be living with. So that's when we deep dive. We deep dive into your medication.

We deep dive into your OTC medication. And then at that point, we can probably identify something that we can change. Hear the full conversation, plus some fascinating facts about how gut health affects so much more than just your stomach on Beyond the Script, a podcast from CVS Pharmacy and IHeartRadio. Listen now wherever you get your podcasts. Struggling to see up close, make it visible with Viz. Viz is a once daily prescription eye drop to treat blurry near vision for up to 10 hours. The most common side effects that may be experienced while using Viz include eye irritation,

temporary dim or dark vision, headaches, and eye redness. Talk to an eye doctor to learn if Viz is right for you. Learn more at Viz.com. Cashflow crunch? On Dex small business line of credit gives your business immediate access to funds up to $200,000, right when you need it. Cover seasonal dips, manage payroll, restock inventory, or tackle unexpected expenses without missing a beat with flexible draws, transparent pricing, and control over repayment. Get funded quickly and confidently. Apply today at on deck.com. Funds could be available as soon as tomorrow.

Depending on certain loan attributes, your business loan may be issued by On Deck or Celtic Bank. On Deck does not lend in North Dakota. All loans and amount subject to lender approval. You're listening to... What are we waiting for? Well, what are you waiting for? One, two, ready, go. Inverster's Edge with Gary Culper. Welcome once again to Investor's Edge. And just let me go through a bunch of news here.

And some of it doesn't sound great. The CIA is warning. Iran is going to attack within 48 hours because of Israel attacking them, defending themselves by going after them. the war cabinet meets. Embassies are being a vet. I mean, these are the headlines that are going on right now.

The IDF is halted leave for combat troops. A lot of crap going on there. By the way, I didn't even talk Russia and Ukraine at this point. That's like to the side right now. Man, oh, man, oh man. In the news, I haven't been to McDonald's in forever. When I was in college, I lived on the chicken McNuggets with the sweet and sour sauce.

I live with the chicken McNuggets. I don't think I've been to McDonald's in 15 or 20 years, maybe even more. I don't do fast food except every two months, I would say, I go to Chick-fil-A for two chicken sandwiches because they're so darn good. And I'm reading today the prices at McDonald's. Wow. Wow. I only have to go by where they were back then. A McChicken is tripled since 2014.

A McDoubled is up 170%. Medium fries is up 138%. Quarter pounder with cheese 122. Hmm. Wow. had no idea. And I was also reading about, what was it, five guys?

Prices are up, kids. I don't think they're coming down. In the news, here's another one, Target. They are in the midst of trying to come up with paid membership akin to Costco and Amazon Prime. I wonder if that's going to work. Because people are used to, not that

that's going to be interesting and by the way Amazon I'm sorry it's the greatest it's the greatest do you know I told you about the

sticky pads that I got for 50% off from Office Depot I made the mistake of buying some Haynes socks at a Macy's I don't know about three four weeks ago never opened it up

and I went on Amazon same things 45% cheaper and free shipping and I'm going to return the ones to Macy's and I've been doing a little bit of a deep dive on things being sold at Amazon everyday things

I'm not talking about big expensive expensive stuff it is unbelievably cheaper no wonder they're doing the business that they are doing I mean they really have and I To be honest, I don't know how they can do it, but they do.

I guess it's, I don't know. Numbers? How much? In the news, just want to let you know, high-end housing prices. A lot of markdowns. And I'm looking at a bunch of areas, not just where I'm at. not just where I'm at. I went across the country

and we think it has to do with one thing. Fantasy pricing. I've seen people put up houses for $5 million that no way would go for $3 million, but in hopes of somebody's going to, and now they're all finding out. And when I say all, all. Now whether that goes into the lower priced houses, don't know, but I'm just letting you know it's on.

In central Florida, there is an area called Windermere. There's like 500 houses for sale. Upper end stuff. And all of them, 100,000, 250, 500,000 markdowns. And a lot of them, 100 days, 100,000. 50 days, 200 days, and then they come off if they don't sell or they just keep coming down. We're going to be watching closely to see if traction is lost. What does that mean?

Oh, we end up on the other side. And what does that mean? People really wanting to sell and not being able to sell and have to keep coming down in price, which forces others that were thinking about selling, oh, wait a minute, let me get out there and go, before it goes even lower, and that's how you go into the opposite of inflation, deflation, in price. I don't think we're there on the high end. I think we are getting there. I think we're going to see it big in Miami that has gone somewhat on the insane side and other areas. That's not in the news. That's me. doing my studying

and we will let you know if it hits the three and the fives and the six and the sevens in certain areas a little bit and just remember we still think there's that distortion is out there

and that's distortion is simply a lot of people are loath to sell for one reason I have a 3% mortgage Why would I transfer to a 7%? All right.

Crappy day. Hopefully tomorrow better. But you have a great evening drive carefully when you get home, do like we do. Quite simple. Make sure you hug your family. Make sure you hug your children. We'll be on with Cavuto tomorrow. Neil Cavuto, that is, the best in the business.

Noon hour Fox Business Network. Check us out. And until tomorrow, same time, the investor's edge will be back. Have a great evening, everybody. Thanks for joining us. Always an honor and a privilege that you would listen to us. Take care. Bye, bye. This has been Investors' Edge with Gary Cult Bomb on Biz Talk. To listen to past episodes or to get in contact with Gary, go to GaryK.com. That's GaryKK.com.

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