Investor's Edge with Gary Kaltbaum - Things Be Changing.

Episode Date: December 5, 2022

Follow Gary on GaryK.com or http://garykaltbaum.com

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Terms apply. Lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for detail. Investor's Edge with Gary Coltbaum. Straight talk about you and your money. Now from the BizTalk Studios, here is Gary Cultbaum. And welcome once again to Investors Edge. I'm Gary Kaltbaum.

I'm your host. A thanks of being with us today. Glad you here, ladies and gentlemen, happy that you are listening. It's Monday. It's December 5th. It's 2002. Hope you had a good weekend. I kind of sort of did.

As I told you, had to fly to Miami, pick up my car, drive back. I was quite comatose on the drive back. Watch my giants tie the Redskins. They should have won. The field goal kicker couldn't even get the ball over the crossbar at the end. My Mets lose a great pitcher, but they get a great pitcher in Justin Verlander. Big sports weekend for Gary. Ladies and gentlemen, as you know we do markets.

But you know when you turn on the tube, they say, well, the Dow did this, the S&P did this, the NASDAQ did this, and sometimes just the Dow. We, here, 200 sectors, sub-sectors. There's the semiconductors, but there's the semiconductor equipment, the DRAMs, there's financials, but there's all kinds of different financial things. Every country we follow. Do you know what the strongest country there is as far as a stock movement? Turkey. Do you know why? There are inflation is like a million percent.

We follow the bond market. Short, intermediate long. We follow the junk bond market. We follow every commodity. We follow everything. And the one thing we feel we do best, and we've done it again, during this bare market, this last year and change, is recognize when a counter-trend move is over and done. Not necessarily in the whole market, or could be, not necessarily in country,

could be, but sectors, which is mui importante. And as I've said to you on this show, the first time I ever met William O'Neill, it was a free workshop at the Bocca Raton Marriott. He was with David Ryan. And he said a few things that stood out. The first thing was if you're one of the few people that know how to be out of the bare markets, you are 99.999% of the world. But he also went on to say, and part of that is if you are the few people that know where the bear market, markets are. In other words, the worst areas, the worst stocks, and you're able to avoid them, you're ahead of 99.999% of the world. And throughout bull and bare markets, we have taken pains here

as we state to you to go underneath the surface, underneath the hood, and tell you, this is the strength, this is the weakness. This is the big strength. This is the big weakness. Remember, the beginning of this year, the first, day of this year we told you everything was topping out but oils look to be emerging it's exactly what happened we have some news for you today as you know we've had this nascent rally off the low started october 13 with that big reversal october 21st the confirmation november 10th that inflation number we had that 900 point gap then we sat for three weeks and then we had another move off of whatever j powell said last week and what have we told you the Dow

types of the strength, the S&Ps in between the NASDAQ sucks. But trying. Just in relation, the NASDAQ, NASDAQ 100 were the weakness. What else have we been telling you lately? And we said this to you a couple of times last week. It's quite weird that oil prices are markedly down from the highs, but a bunch of oil stocks are near the highs. Something's got to give.

and we stated, there are a few things that look like they're rolling over here. We'll see what happens there. On the weekend, I don't think I mentioned to you, but on the weekend we mentioned to our peeps,

hey, just letting you know it feels like financials may be stalling and if the next move, since they've been pretty tight up here and stalling, if the next move is down, could be meaningful. So when we get into it, we're going to talk oil.

and financials first. But first, if you do not get this radio show in the city, in your city, not this city, we'll post it at garyk.com. We'll also post it on our Twitter feed. Of course, you can follow us on Twitter by going to Twitter, putting our name in, or pressing the Twitter button at garyk.com. You can email us, just be nice. You know, we got a lot of emails from you guys saying, Gary, you know, I can't believe,

you read nasty emails and we don't get many of them i i must tell you we think it's important that we address the crummy the nasty the respectfully constructive that disagree we'd rather read those we don't read all the compliments to you we hardly ever why because we like addressing the negative or the perceivedness negative. And it also makes us think, are they right? Do they have something? And of course, we said no. But thank you for all the emails. We appreciate it. Just remember, no matter what, very simple. There's some simple mantras here. When right, try to be right as far as the eyes can see. When wrong, be wrong fast, be wrong, be wrong small. And of course, as we've stated, some of the greatest

hedge fund manager says I know a ton of people that have better higher percentage picks than us, meaning somebody picks six out of ten winners and the hedge fund guy five out of ten or four out of ten. But the hedge fund manager says it's what you do with your winners and losers that make the difference. So that's a big mantra of ours no matter what. And put our best foot forward with no a gender, ulterior motive of a bias. Simple as that. That's the thought process here.

And as you know, we've injected the political side of it many moons ago because they became interlopers with no ulterior motive, a gender, a bias. We've ripped them all here. We've gotten the emails from both sides of the aisle. What's interesting is,

I got a lot of people agreeing with finally in everything I'm saying. the $31 trillion of debt, the massive central bank intervention, the rules, regulations, fees, fines, mandates, taxes. I got Trumpians agreeing with me also. And I say, he didn't care about the debt and deficits. And he was trying to draw bone power into doing zero percent rates and printing money himself.

It's no different. They even got them agreeing. And, man, I've got to tell you, the Trumpians are rabid for him. God bless you. Anyway, so we're going to start real quick with the market wrap because there's lots to cover. It's brought to you by Investment-Models.com. That's Jim Roraback, one of the great market timers.

No gray areas with the man you're either in or out of the market with his proprietary indicators. Go check it out. Investment-mottles.com. Well, I'm not even to discuss the big market. I'm going to discuss areas. First and foremost, when you have a chance tonight and you do your work, I want you to go look at the symbol K-R-E. because this is the S&P Regional Bank Index. That's breaking down with volume, the regional banks.

And then when you have a chance, you are going to put in the charts of, go look at PNC Bank, breaking down. Comerica, really breaking down. Truist, breaking down. Fifth Third Bank Corps, breaking down. Names you've never even heard of. How about symbol H-O-M-B, home bank shares, which was at nearly highs three weeks ago, breaking the 50-day moving average?

These are regional banks. How about a Southings bank? I've never heard of this one. Hancock Whitney, symbol HWC, breaking down. The regional banks are breaking down here. They're not pulling back. They're breaking down. They're rolling over there.

breaking down. And we have had this question about, man, with rates doing this and rates doing that, how these places are going to make money. And maybe this was the comeuppance. I'm just letting you know the regional banks breaking down. That's just one area. And what we just tell you is to avoid it up next, we got more. And then the full markets.

I'm Gary. This is the one only investors at. Hi, I'm Gary Kalbaum, hosted a nationally syndicated. radio show Investors Edge. We're not just handsome radio people. We manage investors money for a living, specializing in fee-based discretionary money management. No big commissions, just a fee on the assets that's managed. We also provide a full range of personalized services, including retirement planning, fixed income, and educational needs, all to assist you in achieving your financial goals. Understanding not all individuals have the same needs, we'll carefully evaluate your personal

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closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply. Lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details. This episode is brought to you by Spreaker.

The platform responsible for a rapidly spreading condition known as podcast brain. Symptoms include buying microphones you don't need, explaining RSS feeds to confused relatives, and saying things like, sorry, I can't talk right now, I'm editing audio. If this sounds familiar, you're probably already a podcaster. The good news is Spreaker makes the whole process simple. You record your show, upload it once, and Spreaker distributes it everywhere people listen. Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and about a dozen apps your cousin swears are the next big thing. Even better, Spreaker helps you monetize your show with ads,

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With Gary Coltbaum. It doesn't get better than this. Okay. So your regional banks, which makes you want to go look at the rest. Because of regional banks. And let me be clear about this when it would call regional banks, big and small. And it really never got out of its bare market. It kind of edged up every day, just like the rest of the market off the October lows.

And you just gave back in one day the last five or six weeks of edging up. So the next thing you have to do, and I have it all on one screen, is go to the rest of the financials. Bank America completely rolled over. That's number one. Bank America is completely rolled over. It's taken out one, two, three, four, five, six weeks of gains in just a couple of days. But it's just Bank America.

And I mentioned to you all the regionals. City group, that's rolled over. And if you know what I mean by rolled over, so let's see, you start doing stair steps to the upside. Okay? Two steps up, one step back. Two steps up. And you sit for a few weeks. Instead of taking another step up, you take a step back down, rolling over.

Doesn't have to mean the end of the world, but in the context of this market that we've been in, must take notice. Goldman, which has been one of the stronger names, rallied up, and it's been strong relatively, could not get through $390. and we have these moving averages. It broke below one of those moving averages today, along with J.P. Morgan, not the end of the world, but in the context of the regional banks and Bank America and Citigroup, it's of note because Wells Fargo looks just like Bank America. Toast.

Another big bank. and then you just look around a Capital One financial, a big lender, big lender, credit cards, consumer lending, commercial lending, automobile financing, oh, that's probing new yearly lows, for example, or an LPL financial, which has been strong, completely now topped out, so financials. Especially the regionals.

Very suspect today. Gave a little hint last week, but nothing that stood out. Something that gave more of a hint were the oils. Here's how life works. Let's say you're in a bull market and then you stop going up. But really no harms being done. You're sitting around, a few things stay at New Yearly highs, a few things pull back, a few things getting a little bit of trouble, no big deal.

last week a few more things in the oil patch started to get in more trouble and we just posed the question wait a minute here here's where oil prices is weighs down but the oil ETFs are way up here something's got to give oh they gave today oil prices had another rough day they were down marketly but more importantly when i do my scan of oil stocks just a ton of them, not all, rolled over, topped out, breaking the 50-day moving average. I don't need to go through names. You do that yourself. I should give a few that you should look at. CHK, Chesapeake Energy, breaks the 50-day-to-day handling.

Warren Buffett stock, Occidental Petroleum, doesn't break the 50-day handily, but broke the 50-day. And then you have some real weak stuff like Pioneer Natural Resource. versus PXD, bad, bad shape. EOG tops out. The refiners, MPC, rolls over, tops out. I can go on. When you have a chance, you look at the ETFs, the OIH. And one would suggest this is a topping out process for the OIH,

the XLE, when you go see the XOP, breaks the 50-day, the X-O-P, the weakness, of the three ETFs that we follow. That's the Explorers. So oils. So you've got financials and oils. Guess what? They make up a decent part of stuff.

When you also add in, listen carefully, what have we been telling you about the software, high beta growth type stuff? What have we been telling you? They suck. They've hardly moved. They bounce because of the market bounce, but they haven't kept up. On a down day today, guess what they did today?

They got crushed, smoked. You know what I have to do tonight? Look at the new yearly low list already to see what broke through new yearly lows. So then we say oils, top and out. Financials showing sign. Not as weak.

Why take that back? Financials looking like they're topping out. And then we go backwards to these things that never even got going worse than today. You got that? How we put little pieces of the puzzle together

to add things up on a market that just put in a low October 13. where we've complained to you, the doubt types have led, and we worry that's not risk on, and the NASDAQ types have not led, and especially these bombed out things. And you know what we noticed today on some of these bombed out stuff? You know, they've rallied up somewhat. I noticed a bunch of the names give back a lot of the rally today. something like a P-A-Y-C, Paycom, a lot of you never heard of it.

It's down 25 bucks today, 7%. Easily. Mercado Libre, M-E-L-I, down 64 bucks today. It's a higher price name. Snowflake, down 15 today, almost near New Yearly lows. So those three, that area that never got going, and now oils and financials. Hmm.

And then what do you do? What else? Up next. The what else. And then the news. We'll be whining about something. I'm Gary. This is the one only investors edge.

This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply, lounge access is subject to change.

See Capital One.com for details. This episode is brought to you by Spreaker. The platform responsible for a rapidly spreading condition known as podcast brain. Symptoms include buying microphones you don't need, explaining RSS feeds to confuse. used relatives, and saying things like, sorry, I can't talk right now, I'm editing audio. If this sounds familiar, you're probably already a podcaster. The good news is Spreaker makes the whole process simple. You record your show, upload it once, and Spreaker distributes it everywhere people listen, Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and about a dozen apps your cousin's

swears are the next big thing. Even better, Spreaker helps you monetize your show with ads, meaning your podcast might someday pay for, well, more microphones. Start your show. You show today at spreeker.com. Sprinker, because if you're going to talk to yourself for an hour, you might as well publish it. This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step

closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply. Lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details. We're listening to.

America is talking. Investors edge. He's got to be pleased with that. The crowd is just on his feet here. He's a Cinderella boy. With Gary Colbomb. It comes highly recommended. You're going to feel better if you talk to him.

Let's continue. So then, in the Dow salesforce.com, which had a bad reaction to earnings down another 11 bucks today to 133, a new yearly low in the Dow Salesforce.com. Okay. It's just one name, but Tesla down 12 today to 182, never got going in their bare market. Just two names, but now two names. You get where I'm going with that. Without diving any deeper, it was just a crappy day all around. My economic, sensitive list hit hard today the commodities hit hard today the transports down 472 today and some of these things were trying to move above

another range and look like last Wednesday we're gonna be successful they have now tucked their head in like a frightened turtle a biotech medical Autos, auto dealers, retail, smoke today. I have yet to do my scans, but I can tell you not a pretty site. What I'm going to be looking for is what I just started to state to you. These are breaking down. These are breaking down. If I find a lot of names underneath the surface and I haven't done it yet, that'll tell some tales.

I noticed things like Home Depot. Let's try to move above range. Yeah, down eight today. I noticed Microsoft, which moved above a little range. They gave it all back today. Now, maybe tomorrow's a better day. We'll see.

But today will not look good on a resume. Yields were up and the dollar was up today, which of course hurts markets. Just like yields down, dollar down, his help markets, but I got to tell you, it was really a wicked day today when all was said and done. It was wicked. And it just felt easy. You know what I mean by that? In bull markets, I can come on this show and say, man, that was easy. They moved it easily. Well, in bearish markets, you don't want me to be able to say, man, they sold that off easy today.

And they did. Doesn't mean it has to continue. But just letting you know oils and financials, the bombed out stuff, they easily sold them down today. Some of the mega caps easily sold down today. Amazon, that's near New Yearly lows. I think that's number two or three as far as influence on the NASDAQ 100. I know Apple's won. Apple today was on the move.

It hit 151. Close at 14660. Reverse down. So all I got to tell you, today stunk. Wish I had better news. And the oils and finance. We don't know what tomorrow brings, just letting you know. We don't want to go past where our headlights can go.

It was just pretty crummy. And potentially, that major downtrend line that the market just bumped into is real big resistance. If they sold it down today, okay. No biggie. Bumped against resistance, pull back, that's fine. but they're breaking these regionals. I mean, we're to see some of the charts today. Again, tomorrow's another day.

So the Dow down 482, I believe we're down 540 at one time, S&P down 73, NASDAQ 221, I think we're down 250 at the low. The SOX's only down 33. That's the good news. Transport's down 472. Advance declines were terrible. New lows in the market pickpour. up today. Not a ton, but definitively picked up. I'm looking right now if I can find any that are

of importance. Got a few banks. Yeah, not really seeing anything yet as far as that high beta stuff, but I can tell you there's got to be a bunch that are probing them lows. I'm looking at the New York now. Oh, Salesforce.com, New Yearly Low. Asana, ASAN, that's New Yearly. yearly low. Paramount Group, Sally Beauty, Holdings. All right, we'll see what tomorrow brings. But today does not look good on a resume. Maybe tomorrow will be better. I just want to accentuate what the oils and the financials did today. And we'll see what the reaction is tomorrow. They can easily bounce them a little bit, but man, oh man, looks like the die has been cast. The good news is oil prices down another 260 today.

that's going to help at the pump. All right. You know, what we do here is the markets, the economy, your jobs, and then them. There's another part that I don't understand from this administration. So I read to you last week. 1,600 auditors combed through the Department of Defense's 3.5 trillion in assets and 3.7 trillion in liabilities. I'm not even sure what the hell that means. Officials found that the department couldn't account for 61% of the assets. Now, is anybody going to be held accountable for that on an 800? billion dollar annual budget.

Let me tell you why I bring this up. The IRS is now making you and I account for Venmo payments. You know, you sent your son in college $700. You now have to account for it. No, seriously. Or PayPal. You have to account for it because we're all thieves. So they're on our backs

Are they going to be on the Department of Defense's back? And you know I love me some military And just so you know I get paid by some people Above the $600 threshold in PayPal What I do is the money is automatically directed To my business account where I pay tax on it What their thinking was There are people out there that are doing that

and just paying off other things and getting away with not paying taxes. Okay, cool. But is there going to be a level playing field? That's my issue. They said they're not coming after anybody under 400,000, but I got news for you. You counter my drift?

I'm just so nauseated by our government and what they have done and how they have done it, their debt and deficits. And you know the latest. You know they complain about Trump. This administration was in collusion with Twitter to black out all the Hunter Biden stories. We already knew that already,

but now we have the evidence from Elon Musk. Do you know the New York Times, Washington Post, news networks? They're not even reporting any of that. And therein lies why so many people are so pissed off. No level playing field brought to by the people in power. Up next. More on that.

Other stories. I'm Gary. This is the one on the only investor's edge. This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply.

Lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details. This episode is brought to you by Sprecker. The platform responsible for a rapidly spreading condition known as podcast brain. Symptoms include buying microphones you don't need, explaining RSS feeds to confused relatives, and saying things like, sorry, I can't talk right now, I'm editing audio. If this sounds familiar, you're probably already a podcaster. The good news is Spreaker makes the whole process simple.

You record your show, upload it once, and Spreaker distributes it everywhere people listen. Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and about a dozen apps your cousins swears are the next big thing. Even better, Spreaker helps you monetize your show with ads, meaning your podcast might someday pay for, well, more microphones. Start your show today at spreeker.com. Sprinker, because if you're going to talk to yourself for an hour, you might as well publish it. This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide.

The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply. Lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details. You're listening to. What are we waiting for? Well, what are you waiting for?

One, two, ready, go. Action! In the Wester's Edge. With Gary Culpa. So, I'm just, you know, for your... So you guys do know, guys and gals. you now have to count for PayPal and Venmo anything above $600. Speak to your accountant.

I wonder if you actually even have to, can you just not disclose if you sent $601 to your son or daughter in college? I have to check out. That's why I say go check with your accountant on that. And then who's going to audit them and their $31 trillion of debt? shouldn't we the 300 and some million people this country audit them and their crimes? 31 trillion. Next thing I want to discuss, which I just think is fantastic. And has nothing to do with you and your money.

But every now and then, I like discussing things that are important to me and I think are important to you and we're pretty cool to you. I'm reading another story. how a man is being arrested for a murder that happened 43 years ago because of DNA breakthroughs. Imagine a family whose daughter was murdered 43 years ago and raped and nobody ever brought the trial. And then 43 years later, the case is solved because it is DNA.

Unbelievable modern technology that's going on. Turns out the scum bag is in jail already for other things. DNA. Anyway, I just... Imagine families, you know, and what they go through and then this happens.

I love to... Modern tech, you know what, as I always say to you on the show, when I was a child, I remember it. We had the Encyclopedia Britannica and it was one year old. That was my Google. Your kids do not know how good they have it. You probably don't either. I'm the king of Google.

I look so many things up, it's not even funny. And you've got to know if some things are BS, whatever, but most of it's good. Anyway, I just thought I'd mention that. That's cool stuff. Back on markets. Let me tell you what else I don't like. Already. When you have a chance,

go look at the mid-cap today and go look at the small-cap today. Russell, how about go look at MD-Y-N-I-W-M. It went from looking to move above range, getting closer to the low of range. and maybe it gets better tomorrow and gets resolved who knows we're just talking one day today but it was a crappy day and that's part of the looking at the advanced declines small and midcaps very roughed up today

so let's put today in the f plus category let's hope tomorrow's better really look like the market wanted to stick above range but now tucking its head in like a frightened turtle the next few days will tell a tale but man them oils in the financials today one could say it's good that oil stocks are dropping oil prices that helps i'll grant it that then why were the economically sensitive stocks and the transport stocks crushed today uPS was down eight bucks today j b hunt Big trucker Down five bucks today Norfolk Southern

Down seven bucks today Why is that Alright so maybe it's one bad day We'll see Old Dominion Freight down 13 today Just a note Maybe it's just one day There was strength in the China ADRs again

But definitely off the highs They open up real hot and some finish down And some finish moderately up The solars were actually trying to be up today but then sold off towards the clothes and they still have good relative strength. Those stuck out a little bit but most everything else is that. Boeing was up a couple today. They're signing a big deal for their 787 Dreamliner.

By the way, is the greatest jet to be on. It just flies so much better and you feel the air is better. in there. It's so good. So Boeing, you know, they had some problems with it at the beginning, but man, oh man, they came up with something really good. Not to mention the A380. I love flying too. The Airbus 380. So I wish I had more news for you. It was just a crummy day. I haven't scanned yet. I'll have a lot more when I'm done. And it's really going to depend on how much territory was covered. and whether I can say, oh, this one's also breaking too. And this one's breaking and this one's breaking.

I don't think we have that just yet. Yet. But let me repeat them. Oils and those regional banks and other financials, that will not look good on a resume. But tomorrow's another day. And of course, we're supposedly in seasonal strength as we head into the holiday. You know what I think of that.

We'll let the market decide. You all have a great evening. Drive carefully. Hey, Winston's in my office here. And when you get home, do like I do, it's quite simple. Make sure you hug your family. Make sure you hug your children. They will feel better.

You will feel better. I promise. Until tomorrow, enjoy your evening. Thanks for joining us. Always appreciate you listening. Bye, bye, bye. This has been Investor's Edge with Gary Cultbaum on BizTalk. To listen to past episodes or to get in contact with Gary, go to Garykay.com.

That's GaryKay.com.