Investor's Edge with Gary Kaltbaum - Things change? [12.20.2023]

Episode Date: December 20, 2023

garykaltbaum.com

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Investor's Edge with Gary Coltbaum. Straight talk about you and your money. Now from the BizTalk Studios, here is Gary Cultbaum. And welcome once again to Investors Edge. I'm Gary Colbom, your host. A thanks for being with us today. Glad you here, ladies and gentlemen. Happy that you are listening.

It is Wednesday, December 20th. It is 2023. Hope you having a good day as we head in to the holidays. Happy Hanukkah, Merry Christmas, whatever you celebrate. Isn't Kwanza? I've got to look that up. Travel safe. Be well. Enjoy your families. Have a great time. Exchange gifts. Don't eat to excess. Don't drink to excess. Drug suck. We start the show. If you do not get this show in your city radio show We'll post it at garyk.com

We'll also post it on our Twitter feed which is now X And if you don't follow us on Twitter you really should And you can email us You just have to be nice We have some very nice people out there I had somebody email me Wanting to take me to burn Steakhouse Gotta love that

Okay Let me do this first away from the market and then a lot of the all market once we're done. Why? On November 1st, we got on this show and said we had a confirming day that has the potential to have a rally off of. And as you know, July to the end of October was a horror show. We also stated if we get a rally, we don't know how strong, how far, how fast, how long,

but you just try and do the best you can to ride it out. Simple as that. We've had in seven to eight weeks unprecedented move on a crash in yields. By the way, we're starting with markets. What am I talking about? As yields crashed, the markets did things in a short period of time that usually would take eight months, ten months, six months. nine months, 12 months, gaps to the upside on those moves.

We put out a note, things changed with a question mark. Because you're never sure when you see what you see those characteristics. And of course, things did change. It's December 20th. Once we're done with what we want to get through, things changed.

Question mark. But first, start with a couple of things. Number one. As you know, we suffer no fools. As you know, we don't, the word hate is a big word. So let's use the word loathe. We loathe all these politicians from top to bottom, bottom to top. Biden, Trump, Obama, Bush, Clinton. We'll go back five. The House, the Senate.

We loat them all. Which led us to Trump, to Biden. And as you know, these two, I'd rather have two others. We're going to be diplomatic and not rip on them and just say we'd rather have two others. But what looks like we're getting them. We believe Trump was ripped. off. No, we believe he lost the election, but we believe he was ripped off by the media and the social media. And what we mean by that is they blacked out anything bad on Biden. They had the

Hunter Biden crap back then and the laptop and all that, and they blacked it out. That's what Trump should have been yelling and screaming at. We believe the Russia collusion thing was made up by Hillary Clinton. We know it was, and she never paid a price for it. So there is It definitely is too. And just remember, I don't like Trump, but we're stating facts. These are facts. Hillary Clinton with her bleach bit, getting rid of emails, all kinds of stuff. Nothing ever happened to her.

She was Teflon. Why? She's in the right party. Then Trump fought the election. You know what we think of that. We think he's lied about the whole thing. January 6th happened. Trump did not push it to happen, but it happened because.

cause of him. That's our belief. It would never happen if he didn't do, oh, the election was stolen. People paid a real big price for it. People are in jail. Rudy Giuliani went after two women and rightfully so is going to owe him 140

million bucks that he's never going to be able to pay. Ruin their lives. All kinds of crap came out of it. But we believe the first impeachment should never have happened. It was bull crap. The second impeachment, I believe, was based on the, what they called was the insurrection. They called it.

We're not calling it that. Let's just say what happened happened. We believe they lowered the bar on impeachment in a very big way. Set in the stage for others to get impeached. And then you have Colorado. Part of why Trump is loved is because how much he's been attacked in the media, in social media. The pundits, you name it, we've seen it. The Russia collusion was a scam. There are those that still believe it and still run out with it. Colorado Supreme Court made up of seven people. Four of them, lefties, remove him from being able to run for president in that state meeting

if it came true, would not be able to get those electoral votes. Now, I believe the Supreme Court's going to give Colorado the middle finger. But this is just bad. This should not be happening. It should not be happening to somebody on the right or the left. Four people making decision on running for presidency, interpreting their own word, this is not what they are for. That's not what they're supposed to be there for.

Yet they did that. And you know what else they did? They probably added two percentage points to Trump, just on that. Because I really do believe part of why people back him is because they're so pissed off at how people have gone after him. By the way, right or wrong? And now this. And as you know, I'm no fan. But this is big, gargantuan.

gigantic bull crap that should not be going on. And I'm just letting you know, and I think I'm pretty smart on this. Supreme Court's going to shoot them down. And by the way, it's a Supreme Court that's on the other side of the political spectrum. Anyway, I just want to start with that because I've got to tell you some, the spigot is so open going forward, so open on going forward. It's going to be one hell of the next 11 months, ladies and gentlemen. That's all I can tell you.

You can all read about it. I think these four are jackasses. Don't know them, nothing personal, pure business, jackasses. Other states have shot it down. If Trump is going to lose, he should lose in the election via the votes, not the decision of four people to take away electoral votes from him. That's my take. What does it have to do with you and your money in the markets,

the economy, everything. Whoever's going to run the joint starting January from 25 once they're inaugurated. It's going to have a little bit of say in the matter. And due to the fact, I've watched Joe Biden control freak talk about the rich and their fair share about 40 times in the last week or two. You know what he's going to try and do. I move on. Just a word to the wise.

Gift cards. When you go like to the CVS or a store, don't be getting the gift cards that you put your money into. You got that? There's been a lot of things going on about people getting in there and being able to get in there and go through there and scratch it off and get numbers and whatever. There was a whole big thing today on it. Go look it up. What you should do is probably go online and get the cards. That way nobody can touch them.

and by the way this is big time there's a lot of it going on and i'm and really what these stores should be doing is these gift cards should not be out there you know if i go to publics yeah that's my music we'll wind that up hit the markets and you better want you're going to want to listen today i'm gary this is the one only investors edge hi i'm gary colpom hosted a nationally syndicated radio show investors edge we're not just handsome radio people we manage investors money for a living special in fee-based discretionary money management. No big commissions, just a fee on the assets that's managed. We also provide a full range of personalized services,

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You bring the fire, APU will fuel the journey. Learn more at APU.apus.edu.edu. Today, we're exploring deep in the North American wilderness among nature's wildest plants, animals, and cows? You're actually on an Organic Valley dairy farm Where nutritious, delicious, organic food gets at start But there's so much nature. Exactly. Organic Valley's small family farms

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You're listening to. Hey, this is a good. promises to be fun. Investors Edge. The last bastion of quality programming. With Gary Coltbaum. It doesn't get better than this. So, I can go to these stores, and the cards are right there for you to go into, and then

you bring it in, you put your money on there, but I don't know how it's getting done, but it's getting done, and people are stealing. I saw a story where somebody put $2,000 on one, and then went to use it, and it was zero on there. So be very, very careful with the gift cards. We don't want you losing any money. You know, we talk about scams and shams and all that crap every now and then, and that's been going on right now.

If I'm a store, I keep the gift cards behind me. They can't touch them. So be careful. Okay. Let's move on. Now, what we have tried to do with the show recently, lessons, a lot of lessons. And we're walking you through, okay, and stair steps up, stair steps down. Here's how bare markets work, bull markets work, moving.

You know, we've been going through the gamut while not being able to show you. We do that via our webcasts for our what we call members. Yes, we have members, ladies and gentlemen. I love saying that. We got members. Gary's Gallery. Anyway, so let's walk through from July to end of October. We were on this show saying 80% of stock.

that we scan and we scan a ton every night are in downtrends and what that simply means is down two up one down two up one and we're simplifying them because it's never perfect down two up one you know what we mean by that you can draw stair steps in price going down that's what we mean on November 1st well let me first get to another point at those lows at the end of our October, bearishness was at a high. What do we mean by that? Well, we take the temperature of certain indicators and how things are felt about the markets. And bearishness was really up there. And there's a good reason. The Russell 2000 was at bare market lows. There were a thousand new yearly lows in the market. People were losing their arse in a lot. In a lot of of mainstream areas. The financials were getting rocked, were getting racked big time, and then November 1st. And really, we don't, I saw somebody today came out and said,

or target for the S&P at the under 24 is 5200. Yeah, great. We don't do that. What we do is come out and tell you, just so you know, today was a real characteristic that the market could turn here. It's called the confirmation day, follow-through day. William O'Neill came up with that moniker, but learned it from somebody else, and it's just a characteristic that potentially, notice the word potentially turns markets that have been in downtrends. So we let you know, we did some buying the next day. And we ended up with one of the most, vicious rallies in a seven week, seven to eight week period of time that we've ever seen off of lows. We've seen 1999 break out and have a vicious rally, but we're talking about off the lows.

Resistance was worked through like a hot knife and butter. It's not supposed to go that way. but because interest rates crashed and I mean crashed the market just love that and you add in the Fed who I don't give any credibility to so many others do every day I'm hearing people saying they're engineering the economy no they ain't doing squat we are the economy 160 million of us go to work every day trying to do better for ourselves and our families we're the economy but he still gets whatever, some cred. And we've rallied up and we've rallied up and we've rallied up. To the point where we got the opposite of what we saw heading into the end of October.

Instead of everything in downtrends, reverted to uptrens. Number one. Number two, just like we were stretch, extended, and oversold with a big, dose of bearishness at the end of October. Recently, we're even more stretched, extended, and overbought with a huge dose of bullishness. And by the way, I think we mentioned to you the bullishness and the stretched extended in the last few days.

But that doesn't mean the market has to get twanked. In fact, we say to you and said to you, sentiment is not a pinpoint. indicator meaning just because everybody's bullish doesn't mean the market turns down just because everybody's bearish doesn't mean the market turns up but it is definitely something that has to be watched we put out a note on november 1st the words things changed i want to be careful with my words today because today's market wrap has the dow down 475 the s and p 70 nasdac 225 nasdaq 100 257 transports 378. Those are some heavy numbers for one day. And may I state for the record, it all started, and I'm not making this up, at 145. It all happened from 145 to 4 o'clock. Now did anything happen?

Was there any big news at 145 to make the markets go boom? No. Nothing. markets were stretched, extended, and overbought with a huge dose of bullishness, more than we've seen in many a moon. And the next part of the equation is, when things are stretched, extended from the norm, eventually, that's the big word. eventually bold capital letters the market will return to the norm and if you're down too far it'll bounce if you're up too far you're going to pull back and when you're up really far sometimes the pullbacks can be on the vicious side

we think there's a chance we think there's a chance a pretty damn good chance a pretty darn good chance that started today. And by coincidence, and by coincidence, and I mean that, we did a special webcast today at, and posted it to our members on moving averages, and we ended it with how stretched and extended the market was to the norm. And what do we mean by the norm?

That's moving averages. and we went on to say, and we gave out the numbers, the Dow at the high today was 37-641, with the 50-day moving average at 34839, 2,800 points. It's too much. Up next, let's talk about eventually. And much more. This is the one million investors' edge.

Success starts with your drive, American Public University is here to fuel it. With affordable tuition and over 200 flexible online programs, APU helps you gain the skills and confidence to move forward. Whether you're changing careers, starting fresh, or pursuing a lifelong passion, our programs are designed for people who never stop. You bring the fire, APU will fuel the journey. Learn more at APU.APUS.edu. Today, we're exploring deep in the North American wilderness among nature's wildest plants, animals, and cows? Uh, you're actually on an organic valley dairy farm

where nutritious, delicious organic food gets at start. But there's so much nature. Exactly. Organic Valley's small family farms protect the land and the plants and animals that call it home. Extraordinary. Sure is. Organic Valley.

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He's got to be pleased with that. The crowd is just on his feet here. He's a Cinderella boy. With Gary Colbomb. It comes highly recommended. You're going to feel better if you talk to him. So, we're still in lesson time. Eventually.

Eventually. always 100% of the time, price will meet the 50-day moving average. And we're 2,800 points above. Wait a minute, are we going to drop 2,800 points? No. Because the moving average is sloping upwards. Every day it's going up, up, up, up, up, up, up, up, up, and up. So eventually can mean price stops going up and just makes a right turn.

and the 50-day moving average in time catches up. That's the best scenario. Or they meet at some point, meaning, well, if there's a 2,800 point difference, the Dow will drop 800 points and the 50-day moving average will move up 2,000 points. There you go. That would be okay. I mean, you move up 3,000 points, you drop 800. That's a good formula.

or it can meet in between. Down 1,400, meet 1400. That's what we mean by eventuality. We think it started today. Just like we said on November 1st, what extent we don't know, but the pullback has started. Do we bounce a little in here?

Possibly? Do we keep going lower? Possibly. How does this play out near term? know but we think the eventuality started today and we'll know in time my tactics are simple anything we own that did not break out a range we're gone things we're way up we measure things were not up a lot we measure we look at where things are how much we have the whole works but the main thing we do

is if something did not break out or broke out and failed, we're gone for another time. And we'll see what happens from here. Why this happened? Don't have a clue. It does not matter to us. Our job is to read the tape and things got stretched, extended, overbought, beyond the beyond. And today decided to be some of the working off of it. Now, I just want to let you know a few things.

I saw some buzzard out there saying, oh, it's just the options related. It's always amazing how people say when the market goes down, there's always option-related or short-sellers, but when it goes up, it's real buying. Ladies and gentlemen, this was selling. Don't listen to these dummies. They make things up to get noticed. This was selling today. That's all. Could it be meaningful?

sure. Is it? I don't know. Remember what we said on November 1st. We do not know how long it lasts or how it far it goes. We'll let the market dictated. We think November 1st was a moment. We think there's a chance today was a moment. And there's going to be some what we call, oh, you're up 30 points. I'm going to pull back seven or eight, that type. And what we'll do every night is very simple, as we always do. We're going to scan, probably do double scans tonight, just to really go over. And I'll tell you what we will know, really quickly, what's already in bad shape? What? Well, we had mentioned to you on this show, insurance stocks had topped out. We mentioned to you that managed care stocks look like they topped out. They worsened today, and we know that. And then we'll go through one by one, look through sectors, and see.

see what possible damage was done. Was there damage done? And then what we do, if this thing is just a normal working off of the stretched extended and overbought, and we're going to pull back for a time, where and what do I want to jump all over that, maybe I miss the first go round.

That'll be the other part of my equation tonight. And of course, it'll be fluid on a daily basis. Could this be big trouble, Gary? Anything's possible. But you just don't know. You just don't know. So just stay in gear. I do have an offer for you.

We did this webcast today for our members. You got that? We did a webcast. prize-winning webcast on moving averages, bullish phases, bearish phases and characteristics, as well as leading up, leading up to, we finished off saying how stretched and extended things were,

and here, take a look. If you are not a member and you'd like to get it, it's very simple. You are going to donate to the boys, and girls clubs of central Florida, a minimum, and I'm going to be so nice, $20. You would have to go on their website, BGCCF.org, and donate $20. Put a little notation because of handsome and buffed Gary Kalpom, and we will send it to you. I will have to ask my members if it's okay, and I think they're all very nice.

I'm pretty sure they'll say it's okay. I think they'll say it's okay. Aren't I a nice guy? And it's a very big time good webcast. $20 minimum. I'll leave it for you to be open-ended. If you'd like to give 50, 100, even more. And it's a tax write off at the end of the year.

BGCCF.org, once you do it, you email me. at jeep colpom at callbomb.net. I'll notate it, send you out the webcast, and you should not just watch it, you should study it because it's good stuff. Okay dokey. Next, as you know, this is a very tough business we're in

and we don't take on anybody. We hate when we see other people in our industry, rip other people in our industry. The only one we have talked about is Kathy Wood, because we get a thousand emails. And when somebody's presented to you as an expert that dropped 80% in a bare market and is still down 70% from her highs, I'm here to protect you. So we don't take on anybody, but we did her.

And we learned this lesson because many years ago, we used to kind of rip on that guy that's on that business channel. not often but enough and we got an email from somebody that said why do you need to do that? I thought about and I said you know they're right they're right but today I'm going to take on somebody that's not in our business

and I'll be diplomatic I'll be diplomatic but I'll be terse notice the big words for me I hope you don't mind I'm doing it because

I feel like I'm your protector in ways. You know, we talk about scams and shams. We don't want you get hit with that. We always tell you about when wrong, be wrong fast, be wrong small, never lose a lot. We always tell you about the ills of the market and be wary. And one of the things we ask you to be wary about are the marketers. We're going to have a crash. The market's going to crash.

oh we're going to 80,000 Dow, oh, we're going to a million on Bitcoin. Those people nauseate us. They nauseate us. Harry Dent. Do you know who he is?

He's written a lot of books. He's an economist. If I go and Google Harry Dent. Harry Dent books. And I'm going to put the books up well let's see the names of his books the great depression ahead the great crash ahead

interesting what to do with the bubble pops the demographic clip the great boom ahead he had that one too zero hour the roaring two thousands remember that one have you noticed anything about the title of his books. I'll explain up next. This is the one only investor's edge. Success starts with your drive, an American public university is here to fuel it. With affordable tuition and over 200 flexible online programs, APU helps you gain the skills and confidence to move forward. Whether you're changing careers, starting fresh, or pursuing a lifelong passion, our programs are designed for people who never stop. You bring the fire, APU will fuel the journey. Learn more at APU. What do this animal?

And this animal And this animal? Have in common? They all live on an organic valley farm. Organic valley dairy comes from small organic family farms that protect the land and the plants and animals that live on it from toxic pesticides, which leads to a thriving ecosystem and delicious, nutritious milk and cheese. Learn more at ovi.coop and taste the difference.

Guys, it's no use putting it off. The best time for an underwear refresh is now. Tommy John underwear is designed for a perfect fit that stays put all day. Their zero-chafe thanks to four times more stretch than competing brands. And their innovative horizontal quick-draw fly is a game changer. With over 30 million pairs sold, there are thousands of men out there more comfortable than you. Don't settle for less. Go to Tommyjohn.com today for 25% off your first order with Code Comfort.

That's Tommyjohn.com code comfort. John, comfort perfected. You're listening to. What are we waiting for? Well, what are you waiting for? One, two, ready, go. Action! In The Gester's Edge.

With Gary Culpa. So, with all due respect to Harry Dent, his book, The Great Depression Ahead, came out, 2009. Huh. Yeah. Hmm. Yeah. You get where I'm going with?

this? The Great Boom Ahead. The Roaring 2000s. Is there ever a book that says the title being, we're going to do fine? No, because that doesn't sell. 1987, never met the man, but a gentleman by name of Ravi Batra wrote a book, The Great Depression of the 1990s. You know when I read it? The day the market crashed, I was in my office and get this, Albuquerque, New Mexico. The market crashed that day. I personally lost $50,000 on Aaron Spelling Productions that was recommended in a newspaper.

This is before I knew anything about the market. And that night I went to a Walden Books or something, and I picked up Ravi Bottas book, and I can tell you I wanted to read it under my bed. It was so scary. Well, the Great Depression in the 1990s did not happen. Harry Dent, out of nowhere, I haven't seen his name in ages, was quoted a couple of days ago. The big market crash of next year.

The big market crash. A monstrous crash. Now, I'm not here to tell you we're not going to crash. A monstrous crash. I'm not here to tell you the market's going to have a monstrous rally. I have no idea. I'm going to try and figure what I'm going to eat for dinner tonight after I'm done with the radio show. What I'm here to tell you is we now have characteristics of a marketer,

that it's either the great broom or the great crash. And more often than not, he has not been exactly right. Even though I've watched him on TV a couple of times say how right he was, and I'm saying, what? Huh? 2009, the Great Depression's coming? Really? Anyway, I don't know the man.

Never met him. Nothing personal. We just want you to take it all in. If you'd like to read what he asks to say or listen, terrific. I just want you to know. There's a modus operandi here on the marketing. The end of the world? or the roaring rally.

It's never, well, you know, the economy will be up 1% or down 1% this year. It's called marketing. So we just ask you to be on the careful side. That's all. That's all. And no, we're not going to bring them on. No reason to.

We just, you know, let me, say for the record we hope he's wrong. We don't want the market to crash. Because if the market crashes, there goes the wealth effect and oopsie, whoopsie, whoopsie. And again, nothing personal. Just, you know, you got to know what you got to know. Back on markets. Real crappy day. Real crappy last two hours and 15 minutes. People are going to be scratching their head on why? We had some vertical in the market and today decided to work off some of that vertical. We have absolutely no clue what tomorrow brings, but it was icky. It was an icky day. The only aftermarket I got, and again, something that confounds me sometimes,

Micron is up $4 to $82.64. After being down, it was down $3.5 to $78.69. As they report, another loss, but not as bad a loss as expected. So beats the hell out of me. Let's see, upside guidance. Instead of 62-cent loss, it's going to be 35-cent loss. Revenues of 5.5. to 5.5 versus 4.97.

I guess that's better. You know what it is? It's a big drop in losses, though they're losing money. And instead of them, the sales going down, they're drifting higher now. Just so you know, you have a company here whose sales were cut in half. Yet the stock was right at New Yearly Highs before today. Remember what I said to yesterday about valuations? that when things turn, the curtains come down,

that earnings better come back in a big way, or it's going to be left with a lot of high valuations. Well, we'll see if, you know, kind of like you know. Anyway, that's Mike Ron. Immediate futures after the close, little bounce. Nothing, nothing fabulous. But may I state for the record a real crappy day. and overdue.

And what did I say to you? I even told you tactics. Anything that did not break out, I was out. And I have a couple are on the cusp. Others, I'll have to measure. And that's that. You know what the good news is today?

The bears that became bulls two days ago... By the way, the biggest bear on Wall Street, I'm not going to name them. The biggest bear on Wall Street yesterday turned bullish. Not kidding. Finally gave in, oh, the Fed. The Fed, the Fed. While we've been telling you since November 1st, the yields, the yields, the yields.

So that person really doesn't have his thumb on what's going on. He turned bullish yesterday. Maybe not so opportune. Obviously, he doesn't understand the characteristics in gravity in the market and how extended it was, joining the crowd. So our job now is to measure the pullback. and we'll see how it goes. Don't forget, if you want that webcast, BGCCF.org, let us know.

You have a great evening drive carefully. I'll be on with Varnie & Company, 9 a.m. hour tomorrow. Fox Business. When you get home, make sure you hug your children. Thanks for joining. Always appreciate it. Bye-bye. Peace out.

Later. Take care. This has been Investors Edge with Gary Cult Bomb on BizTalk. To listen to past episodes or to get in contact with Gary. Go to GaryK.com. That's GaryK.com. Success starts with your drive, and American Public University is here to fuel it.

With affordable tuition and over 200 flexible online programs, APU helps you gain the skills and confidence to move forward. Whether you're changing careers, starting fresh, or pursuing a lifelong passion, our programs are designed for people who never stop. You bring the fire, APU will fuel the journey. Learn more at APU. APUS.edu.

So what do this animal and this animal and this animal have in common? They all live on an organic valley farm. Organic valley dairy comes from small organic family farms that protect the land and the plants and animals that live

on it from toxic pesticides, which leads to a thriving ecosystem and delicious, nutritious milk and cheese. Learn more at ovi.coop and taste the difference. Thank you.