Investor's Edge with Gary Kaltbaum - To The Next Inflation Number

Episode Date: February 13, 2023

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Terms apply. Lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for detail. Investor's Edge with Gary Coltbaum. Straight talk about you and your money. Now from the BizTalk Studios, here is Gary Cultbaum. And welcome once again to Investors Edge. I'm Gary Coltbaum, your host day.

Thanks for being with us today. Glad you here, ladies and gentlemen. Happy that you are listening. It's February 13th. It's Monday, 2023. And as always, plenty to cover. But first, if you do not get this radio show in your city, we'll post it at gary k.com we'll also post it on our twitter feed if you don't follow me on

twitter go there it's simple you can email me just be nice and all that all right out of the box first off super bowl well we lost i think our fourth super bowl since the year 2000 loved philly loved them was beating the pants out of casey the first half one bad play went from 14 seven they were probably driving and then the fumble touchdown, 14 all. But they went to the halftime 2414. They were just outplayed and out-coached the second half. Simple as that. Two of those touchdowns, there wasn't a person within 15 yards

on two of those touchdowns in the second half. congratulations to Kansas City, well-earned, but last year they took away the game from Cincinnati in the last two minutes. They didn't necessarily take the game away from Philadelphia in the last two minutes. They took an opportunity for Philadelphia in the last two minutes. by calling a ridiculous holding call that there's no way it was catchable and was tic-tick-tack.

And let me explain because all the sports people are doing this, that, and the other thing. The ones who say it shouldn't have been called that one thing to say, the one thing, people that said it should have been called. There's a bottom line to this. Last year with Cincinnati, they never called any of those plays the whole game.

and they could have called a dozen. They decided to wake up in the last two minutes. Last night, I can't begin to tell you how many holding calls. There could have been and should have been. If you go back to the play, it didn't change anything. It didn't move anybody around, and they still called it. It was the most important play of the game. Just remember, they say it all comes down to the last two minutes.

Last year, they took the game away from Cincinnati. This year, they took an opportunity for Philadelphia to come back. Simple as that. It was fourth down. It would have been a longer field goal. He could have probably made it, but he could have missed it. It was longer. And then it dropped down to eight seconds, and the game is over.

And I saw some football players. Well, the rule is, no, no, no, no, no, no, no. If on the play before there is a blatant holding call on the offense and you don't call it, what are you calling a tickey tack holding call on the defense the next? If for the whole game you let it be and all of a sudden you don't let it be on the most important play of the game. So that's my take on the Super Bowl. Next, I don't give a crap what anybody says. Rihanna lip synced most of that performance.

What the hell do I need a singer to lip? for and if I had my goddaughters watching her and she's rubbing certain areas of the body and then sniffing and licking the hand not so sure I'm thrilled I got four goddaughters ages I think five to 13 imagine if they're watching that I don't care what anybody says lip-syncing in that BS? I don't care how good of a talent she is. Congratulations on being pregnant. Next, just a word to the wise.

So I have an Instagram. I'm on Instagram, but I don't do anything. I don't do anything with it. I'm on Facebook. I don't do anything. Well, it used to be on Facebook. God hack, shut it down. I have a little Facebook thing,

but I do nothing with it. I think I have one friend. I haven't tried for friends. You know, it's up there. So on Instagram, I got shot messages for Rayban sunglasses, 70% off. Hmm. I bet. After two weeks, they got delivered today.

They're not Raybans. They're worse than the $5 sunglasses you can buy on the streets of New York. city fortunately for me I paid with credit card these idiot crooks ain't getting their money message to you don't buy any sunglasses on Instagram next the balloons oh we'll get into the market in a minute I don't know if you guys know this you know what an ICBM is intercontinental ballistic missiles we have a bunch of them in Montana where these balloons were flying over. Is this not a big enough story? I know it's being covered.

I don't see anybody really crapping in their pants over this. Seriously. Seriously. I mean, what do you call this? You know, there's words like act of war and stuff like that, and I'm not saying that. But are you kidding? This is not happening by accident and there's multiple balloons or whatever you, the drones. And what if there was something nefarious in them?

Where the hell is the president addressing the nation on this? Just my thoughts. I don't worry, they're only intercontinental ballistic missiles. By the way, go look up what they are in case you don't know. Next, I don't know if you know this, but Joe Bind is now going after fees. hotels and the resort fees, they're charging you. They shouldn't be. The airline fees, they're charging you for things that they shouldn't be charging you for. Credit cards, you're paying too much on late fees. And all I'm thinking to myself is, first, the guy's a Marxist. He is a, without a doubt, a complete opposite of a capitalist. He's a control freak. I'm just wondering how far he's going to go with this. He's smart. None of us like going to a regular hotel and paying a $40 resort fee. Nobody wants to pay big fees on a late on credit cards.

The airlines, I thought when they did the baggage fees that it would never last. But where is this going? Where is this taking us to? And just so you know, I'm pissed about it. Do you know I want to go to the Masters this year? Usually for a ticket to a day after mark, it was $1,500. It's now 2100. So I'm thinking to myself, you know, I still really want to go.

It's very expensive. So I go to do it. They want a $600 fee on Stubhub and Vivid Seats, it's called. I'm not even going to call them. I'm not going to give him a $600 fee for a ticket. Kiss mine. 30%. Who are these people?

The mob? Anyway, so I think Biden's smart. He's hitting. A nerve, even me. But with Marxists, I wonder, how much more is he going to try to control and what is he going to do it with and how is he going to do it? And lastly, and then we'll get in the markets because there's a lot to discuss. I'm a learned person. I read a lot.

A very big time right week influencer, a person of influence to not be named, is suggesting the balloons are a. false flag that we the U.S. put up there to fake an alien invasion in order to enforce lockdowns just so you know I think this person has let's see how many followers on Twitter this person has see if I can find them at 1.9 million you all be careful just because somebody has 1.9 million followers does not mean he's not a dufous, a moron, an imbecile, a jackass. You got that? And now I'm done. Told you had a bunch of things to start. Up next, the markets and whatever else. I'm Gary. This is the one known the Investors Edge. Hi, I'm Gary Kalbaum, hosted a nationally syndicated radio show Investors Edge.

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It's time to switch on the integrator units and get the brain cells working. You're listening to. Hey, this promises to be fun. Investors Edge. The last bastion of quality programming. With Gary Coltbaum. It doesn't get better than this. So, in that first segment, we talked to Super Bowl that has something to do with your money

because I gave out Philadelphia, and if you followed me, you lost. But then again, I gave out Philadelphia in the championship game. So if you bet the same amount, you're basically even. I talked about the halftime, lip syncing. It has nothing to do with you and your money. I talked to you about fake sunglasses. That'll save your money. I talked about the ICBMs, damn.

I mean, if things break loose, that'll have something to do with your money. And a moron with stupid statements on the balloons. Yeah, that has nothing to do with your money. Anyway, just wanted to start that way. If I can think of anything else to, we'll let you know. So last week, well, two weeks ago, Chinese stocks topped and pulled back. back. Some of them have what we call broken down. Others, and we look at the exchange traded funds did not. The FXI, which is the most watch, held support. We'll let you know it bounced off of the

50-day moving average today. For the past seven days, the NASDAQ and the market as a whole was pulling back. Not necessarily the Dow. The Dow has been pretty much flatlining. In fact, for the last 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, the Dow was traded within 2% of itself, back and forth, back and forth. On Friday, it held the 50-day moving average. Well, we'll let you know there's potential here to break above the range of the last two weeks. Why is that important? Because you're getting close to breaking above the range of January. which would be above the range of August, but not above the range that happened in December, but starting to get close. That would be big.

That would be big. The S&P did more of a pullback from 10 p.m. to 4 p.m. on a clock. And the NASDAQ, let's say a little bit more wicked, 11 down to 5. How's that? As we came into this weekend and our studies, we said, well, we're in pullback mode. Let's get a few more cards coming out of the deck. But we weren't thrilled with the late action of last week. What did we have?

Wednesday? we hit a high and sold off down to the low. Thursday we hit a high and sold off down to the low Friday with the Dow flat, the NASDAQ was down 150. And then when the Dow rallied, the NASDAQ finished down 71. Today went a long way to remedy. Not all. Certainly not China.

That's come pretty decently down. But today went a long way to remedy. a lot of that pullback. Simple as that. Now, tomorrow is a huge, the biggest, most important, you just, yeah, you just, inflation number and history, that's what they call every one of them.

Well, maybe it is, maybe it isn't. All I can tell you is, because of today, and I'm going to have to give you a little defining here, when ranges are very tight, meaning that you're not scribbling all over sheet of paper like your six-year-old kid with crayons. But just very tight in the price action. It doesn't take much to break them up or break them down. Break them to the upside or downside.

Today. And look, tomorrow if interest rates spike to the upside, who knows? But if it's a decent inflation number and one after question would all, all the leakage out there that maybe somebody found out already. If interest rates plunge here, I got news for you, the Dow's going to break out a range. And the S&P, while I don't think it'll break out a range, we'll get back to the highs of the range, which, by the way, is not a big range. We're only talking about 3% back and forth, give or take.

So, very good day. and I'm going to say what I say to everybody else. It's only one to one and a half percent. But it's an important one to one and a half percent because very tight ranges in the market. And based on the fact we had an up trend going, the path of least resistance now if tomorrow behaves with inflation. Looks to the upside.

If you'd ask me at 1 o'clock on Friday, I would have been real worried because the NASDAQ was down 150 with the Dow Flat needs. The worst thing you want to see. So we have no idea what tomorrow is going to bring. We're just letting you know very positive technical action day-to-day. Very positive. Not everything. And still plenty of work to do. I will tell you flat out, and I don't usually do this.

I would have bought, and I'll probably piss some people off by saying this, I would have probably bought the FXI today, which is a China ETF today. I know, don't get mad at me. You're going to buy China. How dare you? Hey, we're just trying to manage money here. And I would have bought some things today that I sold last week. Seriously.

But I got to give respect to this number tomorrow. And if I have to pay up a little more, I'm good. And that's the story of today. Were there any warts today? Not really. It was a pretty darn good day. Any way you cut it. That's Winston Barking in the background.

So, the market wrap is brought to you by Investment-Models.com. That's Jim Moraback, one of the great market timers. No gray areas with the man you're either in or out of the market. It was proprietary indicators. Go check it out. Investment-mottles.com. By the way, anything I sold last week, some I sold higher than the clothes today, some I sold lower. I wish I didn't do with any of the selling.

I wish I had them right now. Just telling you how I feel. Full disclosure. We'll see what tomorrow brings. As we said, the market wrap, Dow up 376. Only Chevron and Disney were down today. Everything else was up, and you know what led again today, Microsoft, which had 2.11. drop reversals last week. We'll explain that and everything else. Up next. And this is the one

only investors edge. This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply. Lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details. Bettering your business takes working with the best. With the James Hardy Alliance, you gain access to leads, training, networking, and support from the number one brand of siding in North America. Achieve new levels of success by

joining the James Hardy Alliance today. This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide.

The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply. Lounge Access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details. Hawking. Investors Edge. He's got to be pleased with that. The crowd is just on his feet here.

He's a Cinderella boy. With Gary Coltbaum. It comes highly recommended. You're going to feel better if you talk to him. By the way, I did forget to mention one thing. How about those medical personnel that saved a man's life? How about them? De Maher Hamlin?

They saved a life. imagine that you lived your whole life you lived your whole life you're medical professional and you never know you saved the life and then

DeMar Hamlin had this little charity that had 2,500 bucks in it a little charity I think it's up to like 10 million You know this terrible country that's not generous, some people say? For toys. And he looks real well. It may be just so you know what they thought.

And we'll find out eventually that he was just hit at a certain spot that just shuts you down. Which actually says to me, I'm amazed more people haven't had this. What a story. He was going to be dead on the playing field and in the ambulance. He was out. Wow. The other thing that's happening now, guess what's happening? Because of that, the CPR business, people learning to do CPR is picked up big time.

Huge. And I got to tell you, I don't know how to do CPR. are. I have to tell you. I'm now going to learn. Unbelievable story. And then you got the people that sell fake sunglasses. How's that? And by the way, these aren't just fake that was sent to me. If you go to the worst place in the streets in New York City and you pay five bucks for one, divide it by four and that's how bad these ones are. And by the way, they have the ray band. Sticker on it that's a fake ray band box they really go out of their way doofuses dofuses to take credit cards they ain't getting their money all right back on the markets i have no complaints about today

a very good bounce pre-inflation number which has me wondering whether the boys and gals in DC leaked it to the boys and gals in Wall Street and they front ran it. Oh, that doesn't happen, Gary. Yeah, sure, right. You want to make a bet. I haven't scanned yet. But to just be blunt, more work needs to be done. Some things are really well off the highs of eight, nine, ten days ago.

Some things are closer. But just good action. and let me repeat bullish action is when you go up and you pull back from 10 to 8th or 11 excuse me

10 to 4 or 11 to 5 on a clock and that's what we have so far notwithstanding some bad moves Google is blown up for a Google Amazon very poor action and there are others

not everything but overall really good really good and we have more earnings coming out we'll see what happens with them and we'll let you know we'll cover them you hear my dog outside but most of the big stuff has already been reported most of the big stuff what we do now just to give you an idea we have one screen of all the strongest reactions to earnings. I even have on that screen the strongest reactions to the crappiest of earnings. We still scratch our head on Seagate technology going up 90%. Excuse me, dropping earnings 90% and the stock goes higher.

No, really. A 90% drop in earnings and the stock goes higher? Yeah. Exactly what I said. And that led us to say also last week, if these stocks continue higher, but their earnings do not recover, it's going to leave us with, and leave us with ridiculous valuations. When the market eventually decides to turn down, there ain't going to be nothing to hold them up. But right now, just a very good day. and your host, handsome and buffed.

I would expect the bounce today, not this. That was nice. Volume? I don't have those numbers in yet. Looks to be nothing fantastic. Price? Pretty darn good. And I repeat, though, the driving forces rates.

Yields came down today. If the inflation number comes in good tomorrow, we'll know they front and run today and we'll never find out we'll know it they leak it they're corrupt they inside trade we'd go to jail for a bunch of stuff they've done by the way i did notice in the news uh SEC rules new rules are going to target corporate insider trading loopholes will close for executive selling company stock from the SEC loopholes But I see nothing about SEC rules for the corrupt politicians. Nothing.

They're Teflon. It's sickening. You know they're crooked, right? They're crooked. I can't begin to tell you how crooked they are. Not only that with their campaign money, crooked. Wouldn't believe. That Ilhan Omar gave her husband $2.5 million from her campaign,

our husband's company. Really? That's not illegal? Only in D.C. is it legal? You know what that is? That's money laundering. To the family, to themselves. Campaign dollars, handing back to themselves,

should be illegal. That's what we're talking about. That's your new SEC rule, corporate insiders, and we're all for rules and regulations that prevent bad behavior. Yay. Now, we know what you're hearing. We know what people are saying. We know it's being reported. Just in case you're hearing the same. Just watch the market. You got that? If the S&P 4100 decides to go to 5,000, it'll go to 5,000 with those same people telling you the world's going to a hell in the handbasket. You got that? Most everything you need to know is in the market and its own action. Big up trends or downtrends. By the way, it ain't easy. I'm good at this and

I sold some things last week. I'll buy right back in if I have to. The easy part was the bear market. The tough part is the better market with fits and starts and crappy earnings rallying up. longer term, that'll be an issue. But right now, market don't care. And by the way, if anybody wants to know about guidance, that's not good either. If guidance was great, different story. Up next, much more. Or something like that.

I'm Gary. This is the one only investor's edge. This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300, annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card.

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See Capital One.com for details. You're listening to. What are we waiting for? Well, what are you waiting for? One, two, ready, go. Action! In the Gester's Edge. With Gary Culpa.

And just so you know, here's some emails we've got, we're paraphrasing. How is the market having a good day today with all this stuff with the balloons? How does market go up today? Have you seen what people are paying in the stores and for airline tickets? And for this, that, and the other thing. How'd the market go up today when manufacturing numbers are horrible? service numbers are terrible. How did the market go up today? Well, you get my point. We repeat. There are bullish phases and they're bearish phases. There are rules to them. In both phases,

bad news is ignored and good news is bought up with a fervor in both phases. In bare phases, good news is ignored and bad news is crushed. That's it. Right now you're in a phase of betterment, notwithstanding the ick we got over the last five to ten days. And by the way, when you have five or six bad days and then you get a real strong one day up, usually that's decent news.

That said, the biggest inflation number in the history of time is tomorrow. which obviously got front-ran today by the corrupt criminals. By the way, that's not sarcasm. It's simple rules. In bare phases, good earnings get ignored and bad earnings get destroyed. We know what happened in the bare phase. You know the rule of bare markets. Anything that loses money is going to get destroyed.

It's exactly what happened. In both phases, well, what stocks have been at new yearly highs as of REITES? and biotex with no sales, seriously, which has me scratching my head. That's how it is. And when I try to explain that to the two people that interview me when I'm on TV, I think they're scratching their forehead. It's just how things work. And the job is just to recognize are we in a good or bad phase?

we never know longevity until longevity goes. And it traces out over time. As I said to you, I sold some things last week. I'm unhappy. I sold them. And there's some things I sold higher than where they are now. And I do post-mortems on all trades. I look back and I'm like, well, I shouldn't have been as tight. But okay. I have another rule. Markets open tomorrow. And in case you don't know, there have been quite the many times throughout the years where I've bought something back second time and third time at higher prices and still made money. As we told you, it's not easy. Now, the stuff I'm mentioning has nothing to do with those who just own the index funds that have had them for 30 years.

God bless you. Good for you. I couldn't do that. for those you've held during the bare market. And some things are back at new highs. God bless you. I don't know how you do it. Of course, there's still many things,

still down 50, 60% from the highs. God bless you. I'll never put myself in that position. So very good day today. I did a scan at 1 o'clock. I'll do another one after the close, after we're done with show. But I have an idea what I'll find.

And I got to tell you, I'm Mitching to buy back, anything I sold last week. Wish I bought him back this morning. But who's to know? But again, Dow Up 376, can't argue with it. And some bad-looking Dow stocks.

Remember, we've been reporting to you bad-looking Dow stocks, held some further support and hanging. And then you got Microsoft on artificial intelligence turning into a, I wouldn't call it a beast. It dropped 11 bucks two days in a row off the highs. was up eight today. Positive comments on artificial intelligence. That said, be careful of the speculations.

Remember that symbol AI? That's the company that Microsoft's involved with. Hit 31 bucks last Monday. It's 21 today. Last I looked, that's about what? 30-some-odd percent in a few days. Just be careful. A lot of the higher beta names dropped 15 to 30% last week.

A bunch of them bounced today, though. Be careful. But overall, I got no complaints about today, and you know I love complaining, especially about my Philadelphia Eagles bet. And I made one big mistake. I had a minus one. They were up by 10 at halftime. I should have taken KC in the second-hand.

plus a half and try to middle it. I completely forgot about it. That's what I should have done. If Philadelphia were one by one in the second half, I would have lost my original bet. I would have given it back, but middling is great. It's where you have, I would add nine points and still one, one way or the other. But I didn't. And I lost.

Fourth Super Bowl since 2000. Dang it. But great game and congratulations to both teams. But screw those refs. That all said, you have a great evening drive carefully. Tomorrow, I'll be on with Liz Clayman. I'm so honored to be on with that lady. 3 p.m. tomorrow on Fox Business Network.

Check it out. And, of course, same time tomorrow, this show. You have a great evening drive carefully. And when you get home, do like we do. It's quite simple. Make sure you hug your family. make sure you hug your children. They will feel better. You will feel better. I do promise. Have a great evening, everybody. Monday Night, Raw tonight. It's a good evening. Bye, bye, all. Take care.

This has been Investor's Edge with Gary Cult Bomb on BizTalk. To listen to past episodes or to get in contact with Gary, go to GaryK.com. That's GaryK.com. This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card.

What's in your wallet? Terms apply. Lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details.