Investor's Edge with Gary Kaltbaum - Topping week in review [08.01.2025]

Episode Date: August 1, 2025

https://garykaltbaum.com/

At CVS, it matters that we're not just in your community, but that we're part of it. It matters that we're here for you when you need us, day or night, and we want everyone to feel welcomed and rewarded. It matters that CVS is here to fill your prescriptions and here to fill your craving for a tasty and, yeah, healthy snack. At CBS, we're proud to serve your community because we believe where you get your medicine matters. So visit us at cbs.com or just come by store we can't wait to meet you store hours vary by location investors edge with gary coltbaum straight talk about you and your money now from the biz talk studios here is gary cult bomb and welcome once again to investors edge i'm gary colpom your host day thanks of being with us today

glad you're here ladies and gentlemen happy that you are listening uh it's august 1st 2025 hope you have it a good day hope you can have a good weekend As always, we have a lot to cover. Serious talk on everything that affects you. We'll do the markets. The economy. Your job, your industry. Tariffs.

The job market. And some weird stuff going on today, ladies and gentlemen. I'll get to it all. But first, if you do not get this radio show in your city, we'll post it at garretk.com. We'll also post it on our X feed. And if you don't follow us on X, just put our name in and you will see it you can follow us on the youtube biz tv channel also

and if you'd like to email me just be nice i have a ton to cover but ladies and gentlemen the dow is down 542 what's down 700 uh the s and p down 101 nasdak 472 nasdaq 172 nasdaq 100 advanced declines were miserable small caps mid caps you name it they got it transport's another 342 let's go through it just three days ago and we're never that sure

but we said to you hey just letting you know the transports are breaking down pretty badly and when I do my webcasts, I am now able to show a lot more things breaking down and a lot more stocks being lost from the uptrends into tops of unknown price and time. And that the broad market was getting a little bit of headwinds. The Dow down 542, the S&P down 101, NASDAQ 4702. NASDAQ 100-454. We're going to get into what I think's going on. But first, some facts. The job market numbers came in. Not good. The revisions, not good. There is no doubt in my mind,

the economy is softening. To a bad place, I don't know. but it's softening. These are some numbers on jobs. But we also told you that some of our sampling, our little silly, stupid sampling has been softer. We also told you that on our radio show, we email people to email us back and tell us what's happening in your city,

your area, your area, your restaurants, what you're seeing in airports, and what about your industry and your jobs? And I have been getting a lot of feedback of softness, a softer economy. But to what extent, again, we just don't know. But I'm worried. I'm very worried.

As you know, I have been very unbiased on who's running the country. country. We have profusely complimented among things, but I'm worried about going off the rails. What do I mean? First off, the tariffs. Remember, the facts. The President of the United States, Donald Trump caused a bearish market and a crash in the stock market with riddle. ridiculous amounts and high numbers of tariffs across the world. It was obviously not thought out to where they were putting like 100% tariffs on of Vietnam who makes 98% of our shoes and sneakers.

So the shoes and sneaker companies were dropping 50% in two days. Well, over that weekend, they changed their mind. But they were forced to change their mind because of the crashing markets. And an economy that was going to get in big trouble very quickly. How do we know? We asked. We saw commerce was stopping. And it would continue to stop because who to hell has any ability to buy products and pay 100%.

So they paused. They gave exemptions up the wazoo, but in recent times, they're picking it up again. And I think the problem is ego. I think he's watched the market's gone higher and thinks he can do no wrong. But now he goes 50% on Brazil with some exemptions, not because of trade, but because he's mad how he treat the ex-presidents. Canada, 35%. Copper this week. Copper prices crashed.

Try planning your business if you buy a ton of stuff with copper. So the jobs numbers come out. And you know I've complained about the jobs numbers in the past about how small the sampling is. But last month was a very big number. This month wasn't. Let me read something to you from the president.

I was just informed that our country's jobs numbers are being produced by a Biden appointee, Dr. Erica McIntyre, the Commissioner of Labor Statistics, who faked the job numbers before the election to try and bruise chances of victory. This is the same Bureau of Labor Statistics that overstated the jobs growth in March 24 by $818,000, and then again right before the election in August and 7,000. September by $1,000. These were records. No one can be that wrong. We need accurate jobs numbers. I have directed my team to fire this Biden political

appointee immediately. She will be replaced with someone much more competent and qualified. Important numbers like this must be fair and accurate. They can't be manipulated for political purposes. Mick and Tarfa said there were only 73,000 jobs added. A shock.

But more importantly, that a major mistake was made by a revision of 258,000 downward in the prior two months. The economy is booming under Trump despite, and he's talking about himself in the third person, despite a Fed that also plays games

this time with interest rates where they lowered them twice and substantially. He's firing the woman who is part of producing the jobs numbers. This is ill. This is the worst part of Donald Trump.

It's the worst part of him. He's causing the economy to slow because of his tariffs. And not just tariffs, every day changing. I get these screens that have tariffs. And the movement in days, it's like a lit pinball machine. And now this, but I'm not done. Apple announces they paid $800 million in tariffs last quarter, and it'll be $1.1 billion this quarter.

But I thought our companies don't pay the tariffs. Oh, well, we already know the President lied about that. But I want you to think about this. You have a Republican supposedly conservatives that hate higher taxes, but now we're praising the fact they're bringing in $20 billion a month in taxes. from our companies that is going to be passed on to the consumer and it already is. So I'm letting you know your handsome and buffed host. For starters, it looks like we had a near-term top in place in the market.

We saw the inkling of it in the days past. Today was the confirmation we believe. Up next, we'll continue along this line. This is the one on the Investor's Edge. I'm Gary Kalbaum, hosted a nationally syndicated radio show Investors Edge. We're not just handsome radio people. We manage investors' money for a living, specializing in fee-based discretionary money management.

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The number to call is 888-4-2-5-59. That's 888-5-5-9. That's 888-4-22-55-9. Investment advisory services offered through call-bomb Capital, management. Hi, I'm Dr. Jake Goodman, host of Beyond the Script, the podcast where I sit down with pharmacists to answer the health questions you didn't even know you could ask at the pharmacy counter. In this episode, we are diving into gut health with CVS pharmacist Victoria Motola, who explains why so many of us live with stomach issues we should not accept as normal.

A lot of what I see is just like chronic bloating, chronic stomach aches. Like I get a stomach every time that I eat. And it just becomes like a lifestyle where, oh, yeah, you know, I just, I have a stomach cake every day. Or I'm constantly feeling like gassy. And all of those things are not something that generally, if you have a healthy gut, you should be living with. So that's when we deep dive.

We deep dive into your medication. We deep dive into your OTC medication. And then at that point, we can probably identify something that we can change. Hear the full conversation, plus some fascinating facts about how gut health affects so much more than just your stomach on Beyond the Script, a podcast from CVS Pharmacy and IHeartRadio. Listen now wherever you get your podcasts. Struggling to see up close, make it visible with Viz. Viz is a once daily prescription eye drop to treat blurry near vision for up to 10 hours.

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less regulations, check, strong on crime, check. Back Israel and Jews that are being threatened on college campuses, check. Why check minus on taxes? He's raising taxes. And when they tell you $28 billion last month, that came out of our asses. this country proven so I'm worried

they've also said they expect $7 trillion to be raised in tariffs in 10 years you're telling me we're going to have $7 trillion in higher taxes we should have just hired

Kamala Harris that's what she wanted to do just not through tariffs so let me just state I don't know how this is going to end up because I don't know what the president's going to do next. I don't know what the outcome is going to be because I don't know what the president's going to say next.

I don't know where it's going to go because they did Liberation Day. They crashed the market into the weekend. And on Monday, they paused, though they did it on Wednesday because it was leaked on the Monday. So anything's possible. But he seems he's putting his feet down. We'll see. But back on the market.

rough day, the major indices that had been just sweetly running up the 21-day moving average crashed through them today, which by the way we knew was going to eventually happen, but it was icky. Do I think there's more? Guess? Yes. Yes. How much more?

You know the line. I don't know. What do we do? Take it day by day. When I do my scans this weekend, I've already started. I am in a look to see how many stocks were lost. What do I mean by lost? The belief that they have totally topped and they are no longer a tailwind for the market,

not necessarily a headwind. but potentially a headwind. And we'll let more cards come out of the deck and we'll keep you in touch. But looks to me a classic near term, top in the market. It's not only here, but around the globe. I'm noticing the German Dax that broke the 50-day moving average four days ago, falling even more.

as I go through other indices across the globe tops in place of unknown price unknown time and what we do again and we will babysit it

and let more cards come out the big worry is he puts his feet down I do not believe listen carefully where these tariffs are right now not sure the economy can stand and I know there's a lot of people saying well

we can get rid of it but he's going to stay at 10 to 15% tariffs and that's cool I don't think it's cool yeah I think they can be negotiated I've told you that yeah I think they can be cheated on I told you that yeah they can be worked out I told you that but by who Walmart can I'm not sure sure Aunt Mary and Uncle Bob can. And then there's this. I want you to listen to me carefully. Let me explain a tariff. A company here imports a snow globe. You know, snow globe. They pay $10 for it. At just 15%, they now pay $11.5 for it.

They charge you 15. Instead of making $5, they only make $3.5. But that's not the whole story. Because there's a cost. That $5 includes maybe they have stores. Rent, electricity, delivery charges, trucks, and gas. Employees. Remember those? You pay them.

This is what is known as margin squeeze in corporate America. And what have I told you about stock markets? They love expanding margins. They don't love contracting margins. Tariffs potentially contract margins. And he's putting 35% on Canada. 50% on Brazil, 25 here, 30 here, 20 there, 15 there, 10 there. My head is on a swivel because it's changing every day.

And you think it's no big deal because you have not seen it yet. But I can promise you, you will eventually see it. You'll go into restaurants and there'll be a tariff tax. You think I'm kidding? So I'm less than thrilled. I'm rooting for him. We don't take any joy. I'm rooting for him.

But this is Banana Republic like firing a stature chief on the jobs report. Last month at a big jobs number, he was happy. This one's bad. This is Banana Republic like. This has got to stop. It's got to stop. It's got to stop. We'll keep you up to date on it.

We wish we had better things to say. What else happened today, gold? We'll get to that in a second. What went up today? I'm Gary. This is the one only investors, Ed. Hi, I'm Dr. Jake Goodman, host of Beyond the Script, the podcast where I sit down with pharmacists to answer the health questions you didn't even know you could ask at the pharmacy counter.

In this episode, we are diving into. gut health with CVS pharmacist Victoria Motola, who explains why so many of us live with stomach issues we should not accept as normal. A lot of what I see is just like chronic bloating, chronic stomach aches. Like I get a stomach ache every time that I eat and it just becomes like a lifestyle where oh yeah, you know, I just have a stomachache every day or I'm constantly feeling like gassy. And all of those things are not something that generally if you have a healthy gut, you should be living with. So that's when we deep dive. We deep dive into your medication. We deep dive into your OTC medication. And then at that point, we can probably identify something that we can change.

Hear the full conversation, plus some fascinating facts about how gut health affects so much more than just your stomach on Beyond the Script, a podcast from CVS Pharmacy and IHeart Radio. Listen now wherever you get your podcasts. Struggling to see up close, make it visible with Viz. is a once daily prescription eye drop to treat blurry near vision for up to 10 hours. The most common side effects that may be experienced while using Viz include eye irritation, temporary dimmer, dark vision, headaches and eye redness. Talk to an eye doctor to learn if Viz is right for you. Learn more at Viz.com. OnDEC is built to back small businesses like yours. Whether you're buying equipment, expanding your team, or bridging cash flow gaps,

OnDex loans up to $400,000 help make it happen fast. Rated A-plus by the Better Business Bureau and earning thousands of five-star trust pilot reviews, On-deck delivers funding you can count on. Apply in minutes at on deck.com. Depending on certain loan attributes, your business loan may be issued by on deck or celtic bank. On deck does not lend in North Dakota. All loans and amount subject to lender approval. We're listening to America is talking. Investors edge. He's got to be pleased with that. The crowd is just on its feet here. He's a cinder of a boy. With Gary Colbomb. It comes highly recommended. You're going to feel better if you talk to him.

And what's once again to investors edge? And for all you people love Trump that's about to email me, we do not have Trump derangement syndrome. We compliment them more than we cast the gate. We call balls and strikes, kids. And I will promise you, if he continues along this route, it may affect your job and your money. You got that?

Gold was up today. Why would gold be up today? well the dollar was overbought after the recent move but the dollar got hit hard today on the weakening outlook and the thought process that the fed is definitely going to lower rates now the 10-year yields plunged a whopping 1.4 today down to 4.22%, which means it went from 4.36 to 4.22 in one day that is a huge drop. And what is a plunging yield help? Homebuilders. Which had got hit recently and bounced today. Home builders. What else bounce today? Drugs. Why would drugs be up today? Well, you're probably taking a little more Xanax, but no really, they're defensive. Kimberly Clark was up today.

Pepsi was up today Coke was up today Johnson and Johnson was up today defensive issues because when the market gets a little defensive it buys up the defensive what else

are we seeing now and you're welcome we warned you that all the bull crap no sale stuff we don't know how far, how long, or when, but they will all eventually go back to where they came from. A bunch of them are getting blasted now. Absolutely blasted.

What else? And I think this is of import. We have been harping. Avoid United Health. Avoid managed care slash HMO stocks. Umana had a nice move on earnings this week. Still way, way down. United Health dropped another 15% this week.

$43. And amazingly, this stock was $606 on April 11th. It's 237 today. This had been a stalwart in the market. markets, a stalwart, but back to the margins. What has come out what is is that they, very much more than everybody else, were denying claims that others wouldn't deny. Amongst other things, they got the Justice Department with a criminal investigation on them because of all this. If they're going to make amends, what are they going to have to do?

It's called margin contraction. What do we tell you happens to stocks? When margins contract, 1 plus 1 equals 2. And if it's happening to United Health, well, guess what? Centine was 57 bucks before earnings in July. it's 2591 today more than 50% down. I mean, by the way, you may not know this. These are some holy crap moments.

Cigna, 338 five weeks ago, 262 today. Elevance, ELV was 567 10 months ago. It's 274 today. This is a 50% drops. This ain't no hill for a climber. this ain't Aunt Mary and Uncle Bob selling it's margin contraction of an industry and of course

in sympathy other insurance stocks are not having a great go of it right now we have told you to avoid the whole insurance complex from Aflac down to Voia and they've been under pressure

and we'll keep coming coming at you because we told you recently the auto dealers. We just recently told you the transport. And by the way, let's see, I think just this week, if I am correct, this is not coming up correct. Well, let's just say the transport started the week at 16364. It closed the week at 15104. Yeah, I got it. 7.7% drop in the companies that move everything. Quite mooie, importante. So, just letting you know. On today's drop, we're already gauging, what ain't dropping? But they pretty much got a lot of things today, though I must tell you,

modest losses in some of those energy names like GEV and VST. Modest. Quite modest. And some other ones I'm going to be looking at. What was interesting to me today, Microsoft. Remember they gapped it up yesterday and we warned. Gapped it up at 555. It's back to 524 already.

And a beautiful gap. In meta yesterday, that's not going to hold in this market. Drop $23 today. We'll keep a close eye in it. Why? We love companies that gap to the upside. They came after banks today and advanced declines 11 up, 32 down on the NASDAQ, 13 up 29 down on the New York. You ready for this?

More new yearly lows on the New York than the new yearly highs and on the NASDAQ? Five times as many. Ladies and gentlemen, that's some holy crap statistics. We'll head into next week and we'll see what's next out of the president because as we have told you, it's too much. It's too much of him. And may I state for the record, a little bit of crazy. You're firing somebody who puts out statistics on jobs and call them liars and cheaters. the month after they put out a number of 250,000 that you praised.

You know what that does to someone's credibility? You know what it does to somebody's credibility? I'll leave it at that. We wish him well. We're rooting for him, but it's getting silly and I'm worried. And now the job market. And now the job market. the job market. And may I repeat that? And now the job market. Again, we'll keep you on top of it without agenda, ulterior motive, or bias. You know where we stand. We stand on your side. Personally, we couldn't give a crap about any of them. Professionally,

We must watch them closely. Up next, list that and the other thing and whatever else. This is the one only investor's edge? Hi, I'm Dr. Jake Goodman, host of Beyond the script, the podcast where I sit down with pharmacists to answer the health questions you didn't even know you could ask at the pharmacy counter. In this episode, we are diving into gut health with CVS pharmacist, Victoria Motola, who explains why so many of us live with stomachs,

issues we should not accept as normal. A lot of what I see is just like chronic bloating, chronic stomach aches. Like I get a stomachache every time that I eat and it just becomes like a lifestyle where, oh yeah, you know, I just have a stomachache every day. Or I'm constantly feeling like gassy. And all of those things are not something that generally, if you have a healthy gut, you should be living with. So that's when we deep dive. We deep dive into your medication. We deep dive into your OTC medication, and then at that point, we can probably identify something that we can change. Hear the full conversation, plus some fascinating facts about how gut health affects so much more than just your stomach on Beyond the Script, a podcast from CVS Pharmacy and IHeartRadio.

Listen now wherever you get your podcasts. Struggling to see up close, make it visible with Viz. Viz is a once daily prescription eye drop to treat blurry near vision for up to 10 hours. The most common side effects that may be experienced while using Viz include eye irritation, temporary dimmer dark vision, headaches and eye redness. Talk to an eye doctor to learn if Viz is right for you. Learn more at Viz.com. OnDEC is built to back small businesses like yours.

Whether you're buying equipment, expanding your team, or bridging cash flow gaps, OnDex loans up to $400,000 help make it happen fast. Rated A-plus by the Better Business Bureau and earning thousands of five-star trust pilot reviews, OnDec delivers funding you can count on. Apply in minutes at on deck.com. Depending on certain loan attributes, your business loan may be issued by OnDec or Celtic Bank. OnDec does not lend in North Dakota. All loans and amounts subject to lender approval.

You're listening to. What are we waiting for? Well, what are you waiting for? One, two, ready, go. Investers Edge with Gary Culper. Welcome once again to Investors Edge. So I mentioned Apple and their tariffs, but they also reported earnings. And earnings were accelerating a little bit, and the stock was up four bucks early.

Finish down five bucks. Do you know why? I think we'll hear a little bit more of this. Tim Cooks came out and said that the numbers were skewed and front-loaded because everybody was worried about the tariffs. So they bought first, but now things are slowing again. Apple stock has been on a versus basis terrible. And we have been telling you to avoid it. Topped out of 260, it's getting near 200.

And little other worry about Apple. The next big thing we're being told is a flip phone. Really? didn't the flip phone go the way of the dodo burn? And I'm hearing, I'm hearing, it's going to cost $2,000. Really? We'll see how it goes. That's Apple. Again, people were worried about tariffs that they would have to pay a bunch higher on the iPhone.

So buy now before the tariffs. And there's the worry about the economy. Last quarter's GDP was three. But how much was that front-loaded? My answer? I don't know. But based on what Apple is saying, it doesn't take a reach to be thinking

that everything was good before. and now that buying power gone. Again, I don't know. But we do know what Apple said. Things to ponder, ladies and gentlemen.

I wish I had the president's ear. I know he wouldn't listen, even if I did, but I can help the man out if he was to listen, big time. I am a lot smarter than him, a lot smarter than him on the tariffs. I would be able to set him straight on the tariffs, but he wouldn't listen.

And anybody who does disagree with him gets pounded into oblivion. What else? Kamala was on the Colbert show last night, and let me just tell you, I had a 4 p.m. flight up to the Northeast yesterday. I originally had a 7 p.m. but I knew there was weather, so I took the 4 p.m. And I ended up, my flight left at about 10.45 p.m. So six hours and 45 minute delay. And on the airplane, I watched Kamala. As unthrilled as I am with President Trump, this woman's a nightmare. What a lightweight. What a lightweight. And Colbyld Bear is just pure nausea.

Pure nausea. Might as well giving her a back rub. But she's a lightweight. Uninspiring. Can't put sentences together. Simple questions to answer about who's leading the Democratic Party that she can't answer. Dodged a bullet, if you ask me, especially on the border, which Trump gets A plus plus plus plus plus plus plus plus plus plus plus plus plus plus and she got an F minus minus minus minus minus minus

But anyway I watched that and I was like I'm sitting on the plane I'm like Huh? Couldn't believe it but back on the president He should be listening to me on the tariffs He should be listening to me They're causing a little turmoil and they can cause a lot more if he doesn't take down these tariffs. And if he thinks the economy is thrilled with 15%. An economy that's used to not, we'll see.

I'm in hopes. If in a year from now, he takes in $20 billion a month and pays down the debt and we've got 3% growth, he'll get the handshake, the hug, and the applause. I'm not so sure. in other news it's NFL season ladies and gentlemen Hall of Fame game yesterday

and I had no idea Antonio Gates was not in the Hall of Fame one of the greatest tight ends what do they wait for you know these Hall of Fame they wait for people to die before they put them in which really pisses me off

anyway it's football season I'm not hopeful on the Giants I think they're going to have a great defense, I'm not so sure about the offense. I got to tell you, if they get six wins, I'd be happy. Anything above that, boy, oh, boy, I'd be thrilled. Buffalo looks pretty good, if you ask me. We'll follow it closely. And I'm back in Fantasy League this year, ladies and gentlemen. That all said, you have a great weekend. Drive carefully. When you get home, do like I do. Quite simple. Make sure you hug your family. Make sure you hug your children. They will feel better. You will feel better.

I promise, stay well, be well. Thanks for joining. Good night, all. Bye, bye. This has been Investor's Edge with Gary Cult Bomb on BizTalk. To listen to past episodes or to get in contact with Gary,

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