Investor's Edge with Gary Kaltbaum - Tough Week.

Episode Date: January 20, 2023

Follow Gary on GaryK.com or http://garykaltbaum.com

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Terms apply. Lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for detail. Investor's Edge with Gary Coltbaum. Straight talk about you and your money. Now from the BizTalk Studios, here is Gary Cultbaum. And welcome once again to Investors Edge. I'm Gary Colpom, your host.

A thanks of being with us today. Glad you here, ladies and gentlemen. Happy that you are listening. It is Thursday, January 19th, 2003. And as always tell you, when we are traveling, we sound a little bit different because I am sitting here with my Apple iPhone radio show application. What the heck, right?

Anyway, we're in New York City and our offices here. I have my usual four screens sitting in front of me. It's funny. As I went through TSA yesterday, the guy says to me, am I counting right? I have the TSA pre, so I don't have to take the laptops out. He goes, am I counting right in your two things here? I said, you're counting right.

He goes, what do you do? I go, I manage a decent amount of money. He goes, well, good luck to you. It goes, how many is that four? I said, four it is. And just so you know how it works, we have four laptops that basically interconnect to make up my office. It's exactly what I would have in my regular office in my home.

Yes, we're insane. But you know, if you're going to stay on top of things, you better stay on top of things. And when you're dealing with crazy markets and a lot of money being lost, you got to stay on top of things. We will go through everything we need to go through. It's still an important name, Netflix. reported after the close. I won't even be looking at the earnings. I'll be looking at how many new subscribers they have

because that's what the stock moves on, even though it's stupid. We'll get into that. But the most important part of the equation is pretty simplistic. This week, the market coughed one up. And as you know, we think the market has a very important.

voice. The market has a voice with what leads, what lags, what's doing nothing, what strong is all heck, what's the reasons behind it. And what we have done through the ages is built an itemized list of what matters, what counts. We invented hardly any of it. We have learned it from some of the masters in the markets. We have added our own, guess the word is wrinkles. We have added our own things to the equation. Some are not part of the equation. Many years ago, part of my business, our business was watching for instance. and their routines. And what we mean by that is they're buying. They hardly buy any more insiders. Hardly ever.

We see it every now and then. But used to be so much more, especially during bare markets. The last best one, the sizable one that works so darn well, was Wynn's Resorts. back in, I think it was 2015-16 when Steve Wynn bought $100 million worth of stock. I think he paid in the 50-60, a matter of fact, it was right at then.

It was like November 2015, and he bought it in like two or three lots. Well, the stock went from 50, 60 bucks up to 200 within a year and a half. Yeah, exactly. But right now, there's really, none of that. So that's not part of the equation anymore. But what is part of the equation is the characteristics of bull and bear markets. And they're pretty simple, pretty logical.

And sometimes it's pretty darn easy. As we have stated to you, bear markets are very easy for us. bare markets are very easy we recognize them we understand them we get them and we get the hell out of the way of them we've done it again during this bare market

arguably not our this thing's out of the bare market by now but overall not so sure and I know you've heard well this is up 20% so it's a new market. I don't believe that crap. That happened during the summer in the NASDAQ and guess what happened

afterwards? What's not what's not easy and we've said this to you. The rallies in the bare markets are not easy, really not easy because you want to believe the worst is over and you're always hoping for more and more and more and then it doesn't. And, And then you get things like this week. And what we're able to do easily this week is stay out of big trouble. And what do we mean by that? Well, this week, not sure you know this, this week, we've dropped already about 1,250 doubt points in three days.

during the day to day the market attempted to rally was up down 300 early and then it was only down 80 or 90 but sold off into the close down 250 on the Dow today but the main thrust of what we do is not what they report to you oh the Dow was this the S&P was this what we're going to tell you is this week the market yelled something at us the market screams something at us and that's economic trouble and how do we know this well it's simple we have our screen set up in a way where

on one screen we have 50 economically sensitive names 75 retail names 75 financials, the whole transports, machinery. Catch in my drift? And all we can tell you this week, this week, you've got chart breaks galore in economically sensitive names. There are growth names, then there's economically sensitive that do their best

in a strong economy. They do their worst when the market is worried about the economy. And this nascent rally off the lows they had been doing better. Not anymore. They had been doing better.

Not anymore. And of course, things can change. It's crazy out there. But man, oh man, when we add up the way, weight of the evidence and we see Martin Marietta materials, Parker Hannafin, PPG Industries, Snap-on, WW Granger, Ingersoll Rand, Illinois Toolworks, all crapping. We wake up. So just letting you know that's the story this week.

Adding to that has been that interest rates have behaved this week. In the past, it was interest rate skyrocketing that would hurt the market. Not this week. So we think the market is now definitively looking past the interest rate environment and looking at the economy. And there can be a component about some of the Fedheads talking tough. And if they are going to raise rates when the market doesn't want them to, that could be a component.

But for us, it's the reaction to all that that matters most. So just let you know that is this week. That's this week. One screen. Economically sensitive.

Up next. What else? Thanks for being here. I'm Gary. This is the one only investor's edge. Hi, I'm Gary Kalbaum. hosted a nationally syndicated radio show Investors Edge. We're not just handsome radio people. We manage investors' money for a living, specializing in fee-based discretionary money management.

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This episode is brought to you by Spreaker. The platform responsible for a rapidly spreading condition known as podcast brain. Symptoms include buying microphones you don't need, explaining RSS feeds to confused relatives, and saying things like, sorry, I can't talk right now, I'm editing audio. If this sounds familiar, you're probably already a podcaster. The good news is Spreaker makes the whole process simple. You record your show, upload it once, and Spreaker distributes it everywhere people listen. Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and about a dozen apps your cousin swears are the next big thing.

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The last bastion of quality programming. With Gary Coltbaum. It doesn't get better than this. And well, once again, to Investors Edge. Thanks for being with us today. So I just want to continue with this. Because, as you know, there's a lot of people out there that tell us what they think and where things are going to be.

And you know what they've done recently. They gave out their top 10 stocks for 2023. three. They're all out saying where the market's going to be at the end of the year. And what I have to, I'm just me. When I go on television and I'm asked, what do you think is going to win the day in the end of the year? You know what I have to say? I don't know. My next line is, what I do know is right now, and that's how I play it without, you know, putting anybody down. I've never understood, well, I do because, you know, Walt, you're predicting. Everybody's got a prediction.

That's all well and good. But I don't have a clue where things are going to be at the end of this year. I don't know what the best stock's going to be this year. I had no idea it was going to happen all year for 2022. What we did know at the beginning of the year is the market was look out. And as it kept going, as interest rates kept skyrocketing, market kept lower. And all we wanted to do was get the main trend right. our job is to find the main trends

avoid the downside and try to get into the upside which by the way ain't easy because when you start new trends from bare markets there's doubt is it going to be is it going to be is it going to be

one right now that is I'll call it an intermediate trend right now is gold it's drifting ever higher it's not moving let's say from 7 p.m. up to 1 a.m. It's moving from 8 to 2. Less sharp, but it's drifting the right way. We'll see if it continues. I'm not so sure it's good for the market, but that's all we're trying to do. And all we can tell you is we set at the outset. these rallies in bare markets are just not easy. So let me give you an idea what we saw today.

That's not so good. And then we'll get the final numbers and all that. Number one, we have warned you. We saw what is known as a topping process recently. We told you this in the defense stocks. The defense stocks have indeed topped out. and getting hit pretty damn decently. We told you the solar stocks,

except First Solar, which rallied up pretty damn nicely here, even though their numbers stink. But other solar stocks did not, which gave us pause. First Solar today down $12.5 to 165, N-Fase, down $27 to $222.22. solar edge down 33 bucks to 286 but we told you the managed care stocks they've been trashed they were up today nothing ever go straight down and you get bounces they got trashed auto parts retail very small group auto zone genuine parts advanced auto parts o're Riley automotive they're getting trashed

We told you coal stocks, interesting enough, they all went down. A couple of them are staying down. A couple of them have rallied back into not an uptrend, but back into their long, big ranges, AMR and ARCHH. But recently there's been some better action in the industrial types, not leading, recovering. You know, bare market, rally up some,

some things more than others. This week, they slammed them. And now they're coming after retail. What is retail in industrials and Sherwin Williams and Illinois Tool Works?

What does all that have to do with? It's the economy. For 15 months we had been saying to you, just watch the 10-year yield. Direct correlation. Best we've seen the long time and we tell you correlations don't last forever. Direct correlation.

As the 10-year yield skyrocketed, markets were trashed. Every time the 10-year yield had a counter-trend move to the downside, markets would have a counter-trend rally. This week may have changed. that in that they haven't performed badly yields in fact they were down sharply yesterday what gives well one plus one equals to economy economic stocks retail the market may have crossed that bridge and no longer can lower rates help it out to the extent they did before

So keep this in your file manager and we'll see how it plays out. I do have news for you, though. This is a thought. If that is the case, I'm not so sure that's good news. We'll see. We'll keep you up on the markets each and every day. We're just letting you know it ain't easy. And we passed the test again.

in a brutal bear market. Coming from the people that passed the test in a brutal bare market, we're letting you know it ain't easy right now. Areas that have the bid, we mentioned gold, lesser extent silver, China. By the way, China, a bunch of the names are up today.

So they are still getting a bid. Certain oil stocks, not all. They were green today. Things like Hess, H-E-S-E-S-L-B, Tidewater, T-D-W. But of course, I can give you a lot other oil names that look like crap. So definite mixed bag there. Some commodities acting better.

Lower dollar. Some steel stocks have a bid. Some of the iron ore, the BHP and the RR. have a bid. You've had a real strong move in the last seven, eight days in airlines. They were dead. They woke up. Much more up next on this, the one only investor's edge. This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next

dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply, lounge access is subject to change. See Capital1.com for details. This episode is brought to you by Spreaker. The platform responsible for a rapidly spreading condition known as podcast brain. Symptoms include buying microphones you don't need, explaining RSS feeds to confused relatives, and saying things like, Sorry, I can't talk right now, I'm editing audio. If this sounds familiar, you're probably already a podcaster. The good news is Spreaker makes the whole process simple.

You record your show, upload it once, and Spreaker distributes it everywhere people listen, Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and about a dozen apps your cousin swears are the next big thing. Even better, Sprinker helps you monetize your show with ads, meaning your podcast might someday pay for, well, more microphones. Start your show today at spreeker.com. Sprinker, because if you're going to talk to yourself for an hour, you might as well publish it. This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect,

like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply, lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details.

We're listening to. America is talking. Investors Edge. He's got to be pleased with that. The crowd is just on its feet here. He's a Cinderella boy. With Gary Colbomb. It comes highly recommended.

You're going to feel bad. if you talk to. And welcome once again to Investors Edge. Thanks for being with us today. I'm Gary Kulp. I'm your host sitting here from rainy and cold New York City. Just so you know, for the day, for today, as I speak, and it's a moving target right now, because they just reported earnings.

For today, Netflix is up $2.99. In the aftermarket, it's up $13. It was down $10 today, just letting you know. and of course that can change. Netflix beat on subscribers. The expectation was 4.5 million. They came in at 7.00na, came in at 7.66.

Earnings sucked. They came in at 12 cents. Expectations was 51 cents. Revenues came in. as expected. By the way, that 7. whatever million is not a great number compared to the past.

Reed Hastings is giving up the CEO title, whatever that means. They're stating that they missed estimates on currency, but it all counts. They're guiding first quarter below consensus, earnings, but revenues above. and blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah. Nordstrom is lowering numbers down at about 10% in the aftermarket.

I'm just giving you a little bit of what's going on in the aftermarket. But not much else today, after the close, tomorrow. Nah, not much. And you know the story with Netflix. They now have a lower priced ad-supported subscriber thing that they had to give back money to advertisers because it wasn't going as strong. They are now not letting you share passwords like you used to.

That should help, I believe, to what extent. And I want to make sure you know on Netflix, much better off the lows. It hit a low. It'll take a second here. By the way, it's 332 up six for the day now. So it's up about 16 in the aftermarket. The stock is still down 55% from the highs of last year.

So rough going. And look, tremendous competition. And who knows where this streaming business is going. to go. But caught up in the maelstrom of a very, very crappy market where a lot of the stalwarts went by the wayside. So today's market wrap is brought to you by Investment-Models.com. That's Jim Rohrabach, one of the great market timers.

No great areas with the man you're either in or out of the market with his proprietary indicators. Go check it out. Investment-mottles.com. Down-250. And I will tell it was down 300, rally to be down, I think only 70 or 80, and then close pretty crappily. S&P down 30, NASDAQ 104, NASDAQ 100, 114, the SOX down 79, transports down 185. The transports were up 390 yesterday, 380, finished down 50, and down 185 today.

So that's about almost 600 points from yesterday's high on the transports. I'm noting, very simply noting, how many names economically sensitive had these little chart breaks today. Deer. Just so you know, walking into this week, dear, it's holding up very, very well. To the point why I actually wrote down, hey, a pivot to break out of the range, a tight range. It was down 17 today and broke the 50-day moving average like it wasn't even there. Deer. Not a fly-by-night.

Deer. Caterpillar had broken out recently. Just gave it all back. Things like that. So wish we had better news. Advanced declines, what's interesting, advanced declines are still not that week. 1624 on the New York 1627 on the NASDAQ

we've seen a lot of days down 1030 1,000 up 3,000 down that said so far this week will not go down on the wind column and will not look good on a resume and we'll keep you informed lastly S&P finished a little bit below the 50 day moving average

today you got that if it stays below, not good. Remember, nothing good can happen below the 50-day moving average. Doesn't mean bad, but nothing good can happen. Above, nothing bad can happen. Doesn't mean good can happen, but nothing bad can happen. That is the physicality of markets that people, I'm amazed, don't spend more time on. It's not that hard.

Of course, there's other intricacies. By the way, on Netflix, just so you know how bad it got, it's up 80% from the lows in June. It's still down 55% from the highs. And it's been a slow drift off the lows. Rallied up, did nothing for three months. Rallied up, did nothing for three months. And maybe it will do better. By the way, their earnings, this quarter, that just ended, down 90%.

90%. Stock is up on that. Don't you love Wall Street? Seriously, Netflix earnings last quarter of December were $1.33. They just reported $0.15. That's close to 90%. About 88, right?

Without me going to my rusty abacus. 88%. Welcome to Wall Street. And we're worried about how many streaming services there are, how many networks and channels there are. We'll see how it plays out. Remember Roku, everybody's favorite. Stock's been murdered. Murdered, destroyed, killed. Put out the pasture. Just remember all this. And if you do not learn any lessons of the last year, get out of the market.

My best advice. Get out of the market. Sincerely, your host, Gary Kalpom. Other thoughts on this day. We don't suffer any fools here. You know all the mucky mucks are in Davos, Switzerland right now, telling us who we need to be and what we should do. Not all of them, but they're there.

I cannot begin to tell you how nauseating some of these people are. I start with John Kerry and Al Gore. As bad as the presidents have been since 2000, boy, we dodged two bullets with them that could have been president. Al Gore, you know how close he was to president. John Kerry, just so you know at 5 p.m. the night of the election, John Kerry. They were popping the champagne corps.

He was told he won the presidency. These are two control freaks, hypocrites, con artists, wolfy beyond their means, beyond their wildest dreams, shooting the middle finger at all of us, telling us what we have to do and how we should do it. Up next, I'll explain. Other news of the day, much more today.

I'm Gary. This is the one only investor's edge. This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply. Lounge Act. access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details. This episode is brought to you by Spreaker, the platform responsible for a rapidly spreading

condition known as podcast brain. Symptoms include buying microphones you don't need, explaining RSS feeds to confused relatives, and saying things like, sorry, I can't talk right now, I'm editing audio. If this sounds familiar, you're probably already a podcaster. The good news is Spreaker makes the whole process simple. You record your show, upload it once, and Spreaker distributes it everywhere people listen. Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and about a dozen apps your cousin swears are the next big thing. Even better, Spreaker helps you monetize your show with ads, meaning your podcast might someday pay for, well, more microphones.

Start your show today at spreeker.com. Sprinker, because if you're going to talk to yourself for an hour, you might as well publish it. This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card. Venture X offers the premium benefits. you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide.

The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply, lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details. You're listening to. What are we waiting for? What are you waiting for? One, two, ready, go.

In The Wester's Edge with Gary Kulp. Remember what we said about the bubbles, that at the end of the bubbles, all the criminals will be found out also, that there'd be plenty of criminals involved. Of course, they try to come out with 22,000 coins. And just remember, those people were coming out with coins and hoping they'd be the next big thing. crypto platform Bits Lotto charged with laundering more than 700 million of the list money. That's the latest. Then there's this thing with Genesis and Gemini and 900 million a stolen money and just a bunch of nefarious jokes. Nefarious.

Crypto exchange Genesis prepares to file bankruptcy. That's another one. Days away after suffering steep losses in wake of FTX collapse, firm owes creditors $3 billion, including $900 million to the Winkle Vosch twins. Here is all that happened, kids. All these companies were trading in bubbles. The bubbles popped. End of story.

House of cards. Collapses. That's all. I'm being asked a lot about Bitcoin and this rally in the Ethereum and this rally. My guess, well, number one, as we said, they can randomly rally these things. There's still coins that trade and have a price, but a bazillion times less. So there's really only a few games in town now. Plus, as we stated to you, we think, and we're pretty sure of this.

In Bitcoin Ethereum, there's just a select few people that have a ton that can't sell, they kill themselves. So if they don't sell and any buying comes in, they can move them. The coins are bull crap. Now, blockchain is another story. The coins are the bubble. We've been warning you, and we hope you listened. The NFTs bubbles. The marijuana stocks bubbles.

The SPACs, bubbles, the short-squee stocks, bubbles, the electric vehicles with no sales, bubbles. The list goes on and on and on and on, bubbles, and they've all collapsed.

The IPOs with ridiculous valuations, bubbles, and we want you to remember this. We want you to go back to the height of them and remember what you were being touted and what you were being told. I want you to remember that in the height of GameStop's move, the day it hit that ultimate high where the stock went insane, I got a call from a lady, I don't know, I believe she was in her 70s.

And when she asked me about buying it, it was in the midst of that wild day where it was like a 200-point swing. The stock had already gone from, well, it was a low of 4, but the move was like 20 up to 350. And it was like in days. And she asked me about buying it. And I said to, do you know where the stock came from? She said, kind of.

I go, well, it was just like 15 bucks a few days ago. As I speak, I think it was like 3.30. Don't you think there's risk? And her exact question back to me, what if it goes to a thousand? There was no thought process at the time, at the height of these bubbles, that anything can go wrong. And that's what bubbles do. And we've even had a few more.

Remember, HKD? A Hong Kong name went from like 5 to 2,500 in days. It's back to 11. And how does some go from 5 to 25? By the way, they had $150 spreads on it, so go have fun. in that and traded by appointment only. And there were other few Hong Kong names. Just recently they rallied Bedbath and Beyond from 4 to 30

while the company saying they're on the verge of bankruptcy. And that's been one of our worries that they have not wiped out the excessive froth and speculation. So we just want you to remember that. Because if you don't, don't ever play the market again. And we mean that. The amount of money that has been lost has been gargantuan. In dollar amounts, a record. And we want you to remember it.

Now back on Kerry and Gore, Al Gore had one of his rants at the end of the world's coming and the oceans are going to be boiling. We just want you to remember one fact. 17 years ago, he went to scare the crap out of anybody and said, within 10 years. He had a movie. He made oodles of money on. The media gave him so much credibility to warn us, the end of the world.

Even though the earth is 4.5 billion years old, you think one journalist said, dude, the earth is 4.5 billion years old, and you're warning us about 10 years. Go screw yourself. John Kerry stands up in front of this crowd and states where here's safe. the planet. Go screw yourself. Do you think one person asked them right then and there?

How do you get here? Oh, you flew on a private jet, but you're preaching to us about what we have to do about the oil and gas? You think one journalist had the grapefruits to do that? We just want you to remember all this. Know who the shills are. Know where the con games coming from. They used to preach global cool. front page headlines then it warmed they changed it to global warming and then it cooled and they sat in a room and said we got to come up with better marketing and they came up with climate change so they can never be wrong these people are con artists watch your wallet follow the money tomorrow be on with Neil Cavuto

believe the noon hour Fox Business Network and I of course same time here until then you have a great evening drive carefully when you get home you like we do it's pretty simple make sure you hug your family make sure you hug your children they will feel better you will feel better i promise you tomorrow we'll have a little report on marijuana that we've been telling you about until then stay well be well thanks for joining us bye bye all this has been investors edge with gary cult bomb on biz talk to listen to past episodes or to get in contact with Gary, go to GaryK.com. That's GaryKK.com. This message is brought to you by the Capital One VentureX card. VentureX offers the premium

benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply. Lounge access is subject to change. See Capital1.com for details.