Investor's Edge with Gary Kaltbaum - Trade Wars [08.25.2026]

Episode Date: August 25, 2026

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Investor's Edge with Gary Coltbaum. Straight talk about you and your money. Now from the BizTalk Studios, here is Gary Coltbaum. And welcome once again to Investors Edge. I'm Gary Colp. I'm your host. Thanks for being with us today. Glad you here, ladies and gentlemen.

Happy that you are listening. It be the 25th of August, 2006. It's Tuesday, right? Hope you having a good day. As always, serious talk on everything that affects you. We'll do the markets, the economy. Your job. your industry. The Morlocks in D.C. and boy, oh boy, the Morlocks are out. We'll explain

and we'll take them on as usual because they think they're God and they're bigger than our economy, bigger than we the people, and bigger than the markets. If you do not get this radio show in your city, we'll post at garykay.com. We'll also post on our X-feed if you don't follow us and actually should just put our name in if you'd like to email us just be nice and we'll also post it on the YouTube channel of Biz TV but I have to start with something completely away from the markets the economy your job your industry and all that I got to tell you what happened today at 2 p.m. so I'm sitting here doing my thing and And our TVs are behind us and we hear special report.

And we're thinking, right, what happened with Iran? What's going on in D.C. now? Who did what? And it's reported that Dali Parton passed away. And I have to tell you, I'm not a country music fan. but I must tell you every time I turn on TV and she's singing, I'm paying attention, had that little, you know, but I actually kind of lost my breath and I started tearing up. That's the only thing I can tell you. And I'm like, what, how did that, where did that come from?

And I realized this woman universally loved. That's what did it. And I remember her on the Johnny Carson show, never had a bad word for anybody. And I was watching Fox News. Excuse me, I was in my car and Fox News reports that the news room, and by the way, the newsroom at Fox in New York City is huge. Tons of people there. And the place went, universally loved. And it's coming out in droves.

I mean, news is covering it, not even talking about anything else. I listened to somebody, a guest on Fox, describe her, and I was breathless on the description. Little did I know she wrote 3,000 songs and some very famous ones that she didn't sing and I guess one of those big ones are Joling. All I know is is that I lost my breath over it. I've never met her.

I've never been to Dollywood. I'm not a country person. Wow. And the president is putting the flag half staff starting at 6 p.m. tonight. Wow. Wow. Wow. That hit me. And as I'm listening to interviews of people that knew her and worked at her, it hits you about what she accomplished, who she was and all that. I surprised myself. Had no idea.

And this is a day after. Yesterday was the one year of my father passing away. Yesterday was a rough day for that. Anyway, rest in peace, young lady. And again, the news, it's 24. They are just, I have one, I have two, three channels on, three different TVs all covering her. Let's see. I got Dionne Warwick on one channel talking about her. I've got, let's see, who else is, this one went to commercial, but it's all Dolly Parton. She was 80, and I guess she's

been ill, but nobody ever even, anyway, wow, you never know. And by the way, on that, note just a heads up for everybody going into their 60s and stuff I can't begin to tell you how how do I put this I don't know if there's a day that goes by right now where I'm not reading about somebody who passed that I used to watch on the football field or on baseball or in movies and TV Because when I'm 20 and they're 40, they were very famous. When I was 10 and they were 30, they were on the field playing baseball or whatever. I don't know if I can go a day.

Seriously, without somebody age. Just be prepared. Be prepared, kids. That's how it goes. keep yourself healthy keep yourself in shape all right we got a bunch of things to cover

today because there's a lot of things going on out of the Morlocks in DC we'll get to that in a bit but since I did Dolly Parton and took up

a little bit of the first segment I've got to just do some tidbits here Amazon I'm just going to segue here just so you know my Swiss whatever backpack that I've had for years. The zippers broke, whatever. So I decided to buy a new backpack and not from the Swiss company, but some other company. And at the company's website was 178 box.

And I looked 175. Amazon was $79 and they delivered it within 12 hours. Amazon's just amazing. I think how do they do that how do you have a I needed a backpack when I travel that need that houses two laptops I got one for 79 bucks that on Amazon that goes everywhere for 175 bucks and delivered in 12 hours it's sitting here right in my office on my couch and by the way it's as good as the one that I had for years from SW, what is it? The Swiss, they make the Swiss knife and the Swiss backpacks and all that.

Unbelievable. And I told you Amazon for Post-it notes, how much cheaper I got for the, what do they call those books? We at a glance, the appointment books. It's got them for like 40% less than at the stores. and delivered quick. Boy, Bezos, the dude. I remember he used to get laughed at. Many years ago,

that certain financial channel used to laugh at him. He has a funny laugh, or at least he did. I don't think they're laughing anymore, right? Amazing. And you can get anything at this website, Amazon. Not to mention the other things they've done. Just a big wow. Well done Bezos.

I had to just start with that. I had it front and center. Next, this weekend, I'll be visiting. I know I've got about three of them within a certain period of time to travel to. Dick's sporting goods is down 55 bucks today. a 30% drop and that's after dropping from 244 down to 180 since June. You don't get a retailer dropping 30% if everything's okay. And I saw their numbers going to be less than expected, but I will be visiting.

I'm always looking for these things, what's going on and they're talking about apparel and they're talking about this, that, and the other thing. but I want to really see what's going on because I got news for you, ladies and gentlemen, retail stocks. You know what I've been telling you, right? We'll get it to that up next. Hey, on this, the one and only Investors Edge.

Hi, I'm Gary Kalbaum, hosted a nationally syndicated radio show Investors Edge. We're not just handsome radio people. We manage investors' money for a living, specializing in fee-based discretionary money management. No big commissions, just a fee on the assets that's managed. We also provide a full rate. of personalized services, including retirement planning, fixed income, and educational needs,

all to assist you in achieving your financial goals. Understanding not all individuals have the same needs, we'll carefully evaluate your personal goals to determine a proper investment strategy. If your current approach to investing is not getting you to where you would like to be, call us to make an appointment for a complementary portfolio review. The number to call is 888-4-22-5-559. That's 888422-5-5-9. That's 888-4-22-5-5-9. Investment Advisory Services offered through Coltbaum Capital Management. It's time to switch on the integrator units and get the brain cells working.

You're listening to. Hey, this promises to be fun. Investors Edge. The last bastion of quality programming. With Gary Coltbaum. It doesn't get better than this. And welcome once again. to Investors Edge.

So back on the Dick's sporting goods and yeah, they sell sporting goods and sporting apparel and things like that. We have an Academy Sports here also near where I live. Academy Sports, that stock is right at a new yearly low. Yeah, right. And it used to be sports authority

was big years ago when they went out. Anyway, that's how we do things sometimes. I'm going to go visit two or three of them. And we don't speak to management. We just walk around and I just casually, people that are manning the store, hey, so what's happening type of thing? And I'm bringing this up to you because I got to tell you, Burlington, this is away from sporting goods, but it is apparel.

The stock broke out a range to a new high about four weeks ago at $378 high. It's already 315 and three weeks and is down 15 bucks today. Walmart just gagged. Remember that? And by the way, Walmart only does about $650, $700 million a year. Keep that in mind. And I'm just looking at all these retail stocks, just acting terribly except a few.

But those got hit also. today. Target came down, dollar trees been on the strong side, that got hit a little bit today. To be watched. I have five or maybe six retail stocks that are in shape. The rest, and they're just bludgeoning them today. Just letting you know, I wanted to bring that up. So Dick's sporting goods, and again, they miss numbers, guided down. Oh, apparel this and they had to mark them down and whatever. Is there more than meets the eye? We'll see.

Next. When you have a chance, you're going to try and read two things. There will be firewalls, but I'm pretty sure you can search it and you can probably find it somewhere. If you go to Drudge Report and click on them. They'll be highlighted somewhere. You can read it. As you know, we, I don't know if the

word is lamb-based, the Treasury Secretary for being the second coming of Jay Powell by now buying up long bonds and whatever, whatever, whatever, and that didn't work for a couple So then it's leaked. They may do this with some other money. By the way, our money, a trillion bucks to get bond yields down. Well, in case you don't know, there's a gentleman by name of Stanley Drucken Miller, one of the great hedge funds persons of all time, worked for Soros. One of the guys I say to you, I listen to.

And as you know, there's very few. He had an op-ed in the Wall Street Journal. Go read it. It seems Mr. Drunken Miller has been listening to this show. Actually, no, he is not. I am sure of that. But he agrees with everything we have said to you about interfering with free markets that yields if they're going up this for a reason.

And of course, you know about the insane asylum of Washington, D.C. at $40 trillion of debt, and they don't give a crap about it. They all suck, in my opinion. So that's the number one op-ed that I want you to go check on. It's by Stanley Drucker Miller, Wall Street Journal. I'm looking for the title. You know, I had it here somewhere, I swear. If I find that I will gladly let you know.

I got it here somewhere. I'm about to tell you. view do do do do do do do yeah of course I can't find it now darn it I'll find it somehow then there's another one

and you can find this one also on the Drudge report because they you know he's post these things oh the Druck and Miller is let the bond market speak it's an op-ed in the wall

Street Journal. Sounds like me, huh? Leave the markets alone. That's number one. Number two, NVIDIA. So, NVIDIA reports tomorrow. And as you know, the CEO is going to say, well, the modus operandi is he's not going to say anything bad. Everything's great, big this, big that, big this, big that. But here is an article in the Wall Street Journal titled, Envidia has become a banker to the AI boom, putting it on dangerous grounds. Let me read a little bit.

Envidia recently provided backstops that could put it on the hook for some $230 billion in lease obligations and residual value deals, including 105 billion backstop for open AI lease in Ohio. and potentially up to $125 billion in residual value support for financing deals with Wall Street heavyweights. Envidia is classically funding other entities to buy their products. Please read this. If things go awry with Nvidia, this AI, whatever, look no further.

than this. And you need to know, and again, we're making no predictions, except to tell you that the AI semis are still in a bearish phase right now. There is something called credit default swaps. You got that?

You may look it up to see what they are. The short shrift on it is a financial contract, the derivative, that functions like insurance. It allows an investor to transfer or swap the credit risk of a bond or a loan to another party. Simple as that. It hedges risk. And of course, people will speculate also. And we're just letting you know, a broadcom that just announced up to 100 billion of debt for this whole A hundred billion. NVIDIA's credit default swaps are also heading north.

Not as bad as others like Oracle or Broadcom, but even NVIDIA. The head honcho top dog big cheese, there are bets to ensure against trouble with their debt. up next we'll do the final markets much more this is the one only investors edge so i'm listening to america is talking investors edge he's got to be pleased with that the crowd is just on his feet here he's a Cinderella boy with Gary Colbomb comes highly recommended you're gonna feel better if you talk to so I just put input some things and viti is five-year credit default swaps have surged. The cost to ensure their debt has more than doubled in the past couple of months. That's Nvidia. Oracle. I plug that in. Record levels. Record levels. $203,000 annually to ensure 10,000 of debt.

surpassing, get this, the peaks during the 2008 financial crisis. Broadcom. Their default swaps hit a record high of 122 basis points, climbing 28 basis points just in August. They're negotiating a debt financing structure, getting 60 billion and potentially reaching 70 to 100 billion. This is debt. to support the purchase and lease of custom AI chips,

we'll stay on top of it. And Viti reports after the close tomorrow, he will say nothing bad. In recent past, he's, I don't want to use the word tout because numbers are numbers, but he's a big time cheerleader and the stock has really done nothing

and actually sold off. I think the last three earnings reports, even though they were marvelous. Marvelous. What a word. Anyway, so that'll be tomorrow, and we'll see what comes of it. Getting back, the 10-year went from 4.704% to 4.639 today, a nice little drop. That's good. Oil prices dropped about $4.704%.

that's really good and they kind of sort of go hand in hand that's good happy and of course we believe that has to do with the Treasury Secretary

let's hope it lasts now with the oil that's everything to do with Iran and what you need you should know is that there is no way in Haiti's that this president is going to act militarily anymore when it comes to Iran because we're now in that moment in time

as we head to November. So they're going to do everything possible to get yields lower and oil prices lower. Now, if Iran does something real stupid, but I doubt they will, that would be the only reason why this president acts again militarily. So let's hope that is the case.

Everything cool. Oil prices come down. Yields come down. And that's all pretty darn good news. As we have always said to you, it's a one-two punch when it goes the wrong way. Anyway, the Dow was up 160 today. It was all Goldman.

And that's a weird stock, gapped up beautifully on earnings and got trashed was breaking down badly a week ago and gaps up the next day it's back in trading range now it was all Goldman today there were other things up but other things down it was the whole 160 was Goldman Merck was up almost six uh still moving on the news with moderna god bless them both if that if it all comes true But not much else going on. Microsoft bounces three. Sherwin Williams bounces three. IBM bounces three. And then you had a few things that were down, no biggie. What again stood out for me today, retail terrible. But oil prices and yields down. And we'll take it. The NASDAQ up 171 was much better early, but still finished with a little flurry to the upside. The semiconductor index up 164 today.

That's good, but I must tell you, you had sand this down, applied materials down, Broadcom was down, my artificial intelligence screen, some decent amount of reversals after opening up hot. We'll see. And I'm just noticing something like a dicom. I don't think I've ever mentioned, symbol D-Y. telecommunications, installation and maintenance constructions, down 29 bucks today, 7.6%.

The construction companies, we were told, we were told symbol fix, AGX, ECG, PWR, STRL are going to be all these construction companies for these data centers. The stocks are crashing, which has me, mumbling, what does this mean? The stocks are crashing, crumbling, any way you cut them. That's to be watched. But again, tomorrow will be of note

and we will get a feel based on what NVIDIA says, but more importantly, the reaction, and we'll see how that baby goes. Again, they're not going to say anything bad. S&P up 24. What a, Russell up a half percent. I'm just looking around.

Oil stocks obviously down on a drop in oil prices. By the way, oil prices, four to five bucks, depending on which you're looking at. And if I'm going to take a chart out, yeah, nice little near-term top in place. Which is good news. And you know what else is good news? The defense stocks are getting hit hard.

Defense. Why? Well, if we're not going to have a war, that's going on too. Of note, gold was down four bucks. The GLD finishes up. Crypto finished kind of flat. But the companies like Robin Hood and Coinbase were up. both are very overbought and stretched on a near-term basis.

It did not affect them today. Anyway, a lot of mixed bag today in the markets. Now, I'm getting emails from people that everybody's heard this quarter is going to be a 4% quarter because the Atlanta Fed comes out with their prediction all the time. Yeah, I think we could have a 4% quarter after 1.5 last quarter. Sure. But, notice the but. You got to look at what's in there. If you get one big move in imports one way or the other, you get a big drop or you get a big move up. I look at hard data for the economy. I think we're okay. But keep in mind, this economy is living off of $2.2 trillion. 2.2 trillion. of deficit spending. Never forget that. That's why when the president says golden age, I laugh. You can't have a golden age with 2.2 trillion deficit spending. You got that? You got that?

And United Rentals, my favorite economically sensitive stock, breaking down. It's my favorite one. And also, W.W. Granger, breaking down. Those are the first two I look at. after that I look at Cummins Inc. That's really busted down. So again, a lot of mixed baggage going on right now. But I will tell you, on the little relentless side right now is the gold and the crypto. I thought gold was going to be pulling back today. And it was early and finished up.

What does that mean? Oh, that's right. The dollar dropped more today. Remember what we've said to you. This administration wants a weak dollar now because what a weak dollar does, well, they're pressing the buttons to get yields down, which creates a weaker dollar. Simple as that. What else? Uh-oh, those articles.

As I said, go read those articles. Why? They're very meaningful. Up next. A little this, that, and the other thing. and the word stupidity comes to mind on something else. This is the one only Investor's Edge. You're listening to.

What are we waiting for? Well, what are you waiting for? One, two, ready, go. Action! Investors Edge. With Gary Culpa. By the way, Dun, no, no, no, no, no.

Stanley Drucken Miller is one of the mentors of Besant, the Treasury Secretary, just let you know. I said before stupidity. This is what, I don't think, I don't know if it's off color. I'm just reporting the news. The owner of the San Francisco 49ers was arrested in a prostitution sting. I want you to think about that. Think about that.

I gather the guy is a billionaire, right? or close to it, if not. What's a matter with people? This is what somebody has to do. And now his reputation shot the hell. I gather he's going to keep his ownership, but he'll get fine and whatever. And he's getting a divorce, so whatever, whatever.

But what is a... How do you make that decision? How do you make that decision? Yeah, I'm going to answer some whatever, and I guess he did it a few times. Anyway, I was just thinking about that today. One of Warren Buffett's greatest lines, and I'm paraphrasing, it takes a lifetime to build a reputation and minutes or seconds to blow it up. There you go.

What's the guy's name? Jed York. He used a pseudonym and responded multiple times to a fictitious ad for a prostitute prior to his arrest. I'm telling you, what? He couldn't get a girlfriend. He owns the San Francisco 49ers. He's pretty big. And I know money doesn't, isn't the end all be all to attract, but.

Anyway, I just had to bring that up because I always love saying it takes a lifetime to build a reputation and I'm going to have to get that quote by Buffett. I think I'm pretty close on that thing of the Bob. What else we got for you? Anything else sticking out today? Let me be careful. I think the Treasury Secretary doesn't have a clue about what he's doing, unfortunately. I believe he's just another with a big ego that thinks he can play God with the markets and interfere and intervene because of a frickin election.

And it worries me, not short term, but farther out, just remember when Powell was printing money, we said to you, oh, there's going to be an eventuality. That's what we said to you. And we said to you, the eventuality is going to be inflation. They have this line on inflation, too much money chasing too few goods, or chasing nothing in that case. And we got 9, 10% inflation, and not until he stopped printing and then started tightening, did inflation come down. And as we have said to you, everybody blamed Biden, but that was all political BS. Oh, it was Biden in his spending. Political BS.

Do you know how we know this? Trump is turning Biden into a piker on spending and inflation has come down. It's all about easy money. It's a monetary phenomenon. It's always has been. It's always been government that creates inflation because government's pretty much run by idiots. and easy money doofuses. So we're really worried about this guy.

We think he's about as overrated as can be. Nothing personal. But as a vote in American, he was chosen or voted in or whatever. And I'm not happy. And then you have the president now with Canada. And I don't even know what to say. Do you realize he has been saying all the time that tariffs are paid by the other country and it helps us and lowers our prices? And now he just came out and said, yeah, we're going to get rid of tariffs on beef to lower prices for Americans.

So he just kicked his lie in the teeth. so I worry. I think he's economically subpar also. Tariffs are attacks on you and me and our businesses. I do understand trying to use them to get businesses to do business here or make things here. But in the meantime, costs have risen because of it to a pretty decent extent. he worries the hell out of me and of course it worries the hell out of me

that he is sending out pictures today of him and the schmuck that runs North Korea that kills his own family with hellfire missiles and going after Canada like they're the they're the enemy we got two more years

of this guy coddling the worst people on earth and pissing off our allies. And now we got a little trade war with Canada. I don't know how it ends up. Beats the heck out of me. With Canada. Yeah, because they're so bad. And of course, they send all the minions on TV to say, Canada's the, they're the enemy? Sure. We'll keep watching. And hopefully the markets don't pay too much attention. That's all I can tell you. You have a great evening drive carefully when you get home to like we do quite simple. Make sure you hug your family, hug your

children. They will feel better. You will feel better. I promise they will be well. Until tomorrow. Have a good night. This has been Investors Edge with Gary Cult Bomb on BizTalk. To listen to past episodes or to get in contact with Gary, go to GaryK.com. That's GaryK.com.