Investor's Edge with Gary Kaltbaum - Tragic week in review.

Episode Date: October 13, 2023

https://garykaltbaum.com/

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That's Tommyjohn.com, Code Comfort. Tommy John. Comfort perfected. Investor's Edge with Gary Coltbaum. Straight talk about you and your money. Now from the BizTalk Studios, here is Gary Cultbaum. And welcome once again to Investors Edge. I'm Gary Colbom, your host. A thanks for being with us today.

Glad you here, ladies and gentlemen. Happy that you are listening. I don't believe in superstition, but I do have to tell you this Friday to 13th, whatever that means to you. This is the Friday week in review, tragic edition, as we have been covering what happened to the Israeli people in the past week and the rest of the story, which, as you know, we say on this show, I'm Mr. Logic. That's who I am. I just believe one plus one does equal two. I don't think we have to go out of bounds to try and figure it out. I believe the shortest way to get to some place is a straight line.

I believe in simple logic. And for the week, we've been spending the first few minutes of the show on the murders, the cold, blooded killing of innocent men, women, children, infants from 30 different countries. Amazingly, the cold-blooded killers, these animals, called today a day of rage. And in areas around the globe, not 100 people, not a thousand people, tens of thousands of people are hymn and hawing, not about the cold-blooded killers,

but the people that were murdered. And you want to sit back and try to, as I'm Mr. Logic, put some logic to what is in their brains. And I can't figure it out. So I'm not going to. Every one of them, we're not going to even give them the next statement that I'd like to give them. They're going to have to live with themselves,

the rest of their lives for chairing on cold-blooded killers, animals, murderers. And Keisha did not know today, Hamas is now walking back that they killed citizens. Oh no, we just went, we killed military. These people are sick in the freaking mind. Sick, twisted animals. but gets me back to the other part, the logic. Universities. Do you know some universities don't even want to bring it up?

Yet, if somebody said somebody's pronoun wrong, they were crapping in their pants. So we know where they stand. And I'm trying to put logic to this, and you just can't. You see, none of these people, unless it really hits home, do they give a crap with their lousy lives? Think about it.

They're praising cold-blooded killers that beheaded infants. Not children, infants. And there's tens of thousands of them around in different areas around the globe. They're lining up and they're dancing. And they're hymn and hauling. And I get back to me, and Mr. Logic, what could these people possibly be thinking?

When they should be lining up and mourning the victims, no, we're for the cold-blooded killers. I'm almost thinking all these video games, where everybody's shooting everybody up, they're like, oh, we like the shooters. I saw a bunch of American, a girl. She looked to be 18 or 19 at a college. said, it's all propaganda.

I don't even believe any of it happened. And the interviewer said, what if I showed you a video right now? I wouldn't believe it. And little does that girl know that if she was there, listen to that music, they would have caught her, raped her,

murdered her. But now it's okay. So I'll finish up by saying, I'm flummoxed. I'm flammoxed. They're cheering on ISIS. Unless they come to their neighborhood, then they won't be cheering too much. My son's businesses told them to stay home today in New York City.

You don't need to come in. You shouldn't come in just in case. There's a bunch of that today. The good news is it looks like all quiet. There's been no, there's been, you know, no real big uprising. and let's hope it stays that way. Okay, as you know, what are we good at here? Segwaying!

And unfortunately, we got to segue into things that we talk about. Ladies and gentlemen, when you have a moment later, you should be going to garyk.com or my Twitter feed. I posted what I believe to be one of the most important charts I have ever posted. No, not kidding. I posted one of the most important charts I have ever posted. And it's a chart of what we've been talking about for quite a while here.

We're talking about the market now. When you have a chance, you will notice that the breadth of the NASDAQ, the advanced declines of the NASDAQ, has crashed, is way below the bare market lows that were last October. way below and worsens by the day. To my peeps I sent out a webcast today with that chart and with 200 to 250 names in the NASDAQ that have crashed and are still way down.

And then I posted the list. You know what the list was, the names that were holding up the indices. And I've been posing the question every day or making the statement they better not get them. If they ever got those big seven, and really this 10, if they ever got them in a meaningful fashion, I would suggest the NASDAQ which closed today at 13407, be good for 11,000.

That would be my good guess. Of course, you'd have to break 12963 first before that could happen, then the 200-day moving average. Those few names have that much influence. And then, how do we know this also? Well, when you have a chance, go take a look at the Russell 2000, only 2,000 stocks, pretty much at New Yearly Lows. And there are seriously other places I can tell you to go that are pretty much the same. So word of warning, when you have a chance, go to garyk.com or my Twitter feed and go check out the chart.

one of the widest worst divergences I have seen in my history of the markets and my studying of the markets. We in the past had something called the nifty 50 in the 70s where it was 50 stocks. And we've had other moments where these fang stocks have done their job. Well, it's that much more accentuated right now. And I say this also because they were getting them today. I had bought three big tech stocks. Friday and Monday. I sold two of them today with profits.

Why? They were coming to get everything in the NASDAQ. By the way, what was up today masking this damage? The Dow, up 39. Typical fashion. So we hope you are paying attention. We're not fuzzin around. Every day, we're hoping that that broad market,

of tech stocks that have been so bad stop going down and turn up and do better. Instead, they continue to suffer and worsen. Remember, last week we had a thousand new yearly lows, even though the S&P is not even close to the yearly lows. That's your average stock. So there's going to be a lot to watch. Well, people are calling this a bull market. I heard one pundit today calling it a bull market against two people this week.

Up next, we'll expound. This is the one only Investor's Edge. Hi, I'm Gary Kalbaum, hosted a nationally syndicated radio show Investors Edge. We're not just handsome radio people. We manage investors' money for a living, specializing in fee-based discretionary money management. No big commissions, just a fee on the assets that's managed. We also provide a full range of personalized services,

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That's 888-4-22. 5559. That's 888. 422. 52559. Investment advisory services offered through call bomb capital management. Guys, it's no use putting it off. The best time for an underwear refresh is now. Tommy John underwear is designed for a perfect fit that stays put all day. Their zero chafe thanks to four times more stretch than competing brands. And their innovative horizontal quick draw fly is a game changer. With over 30 million pairs sold, there are thousands of men out there more comfortable than you. Don't settle for less. Go to Tommyjohn.com today for 25% off your first order with Code Comfort. That's Tommyjohn.com code comfort.

Tommy John. Comfort perfected. This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every one. purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide.

The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply, lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details. This episode is brought to you by Sprecker. The platform responsible for a rapidly spreading condition known as podcast brain. Symptoms include buying microphones you don't need, explaining RSS feeds to confused relatives, and saying things like, sorry, I can't talk right now, I'm editing audio.

If this sounds familiar, you're probably already a podcaster. The good news is Spreaker makes the whole process simple. You record your show, upload it once, and Spreaker distributes it everywhere people listen, Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and about a dozen apps your cousin swears are the next big thing. Even better, Spreaker helps you monetize your show with ads, meaning your podcast might someday pay for, well, more microphones. Start your show today at spreeker.com. Spreaker, because if you're going to talk to yourself for an hour, you might as well publish it.

It's time to switch on the integrator units and get the brain cells working. You're listening to. Hey, this promises to be fun. Investor's Edge. The last bastion of quality programming. With Gary Coltbaum. It doesn't get better than this. And welcome once again to Investors Edge.

Thanks for being with us today. So it's time to simplify. You know, we love simplifying for you. We like simplifying for ourselves. So we're going back to our 100-stock theme. Imagine there were 100 stocks in the market. That's it. And 90 stocks in that 100.

Keep going down and down and down and down. And down. Let's pick a number. On average, they're down 25%. But 10 stocks are up 35%. Well, the index should be way down. Oh, I got 10 stocks up 35%. But I got 90. What if those 10 stocks have the influence, double the influence of the 90? Because of the makeup of the index. Well, the index is looking pretty darn good at that point in time. That's what's happened. Do you know I think the NASDAQ this year is up still 26% this year? Do you know the average NASDAQ stock is basically flat and way off the highs? And I'm probably being generous. How can that be? Apple, which has declining sales in earnings with a 30 price earnings multiple even though it is average probably around 15 for the last

15 years. Amazon, Adobe, Broadcom, Facebook, Microsoft, Nvidia, Tesla, that's 9. There's one other at 10, which is actually, relatively very strong Costco if they get those 10 we'll see how it goes we already know that Apple's really not trading too well Microsoft's really not trading too well Amazon's not trading too well Tesla's not true you get the point what's been trading well is Google even though it fell off a little bit today what has been trading well as Facebook but that dropped 10 today what has been trading well as Nvidia but that dropped 15 today and when I say well much better than most broadcom was up 19 on the

open today and finished down 21 I have those 10 stocks at the top of my screen if they get them and I don't mean a 5% correction but a real top of consequence what I say 11,000 NASDAQ and you know I'm not of those people that give you targets but I'm just equating to where the breadth of the market is and the chart that I put out and we are not listen carefully saying this is going to happen we take it day by day we do things and think things in real time in real time it just worsens and worsens and on a day today with the Dow was up 39 the NASDAQ was down 167 the NASDAQ 100 down 189. You know we've been bearish on transports. That was knocked down for 264 today. And of course, hardly any new yearly highs and of course plenty of new yearly lows. And of course,

advanced declines were not very good today. But as we always isolate, just so letting you know, gold is getting going. It's getting going. How much I don't know, but that was a big, good day today on volume today for the gold and gold miners. but gold miners continue to not be as strong. Oils, it's mushy, it's mixed, but oils were strong today. Do you know why? Oil prices up four and a half bucks today. That is not good news.

Just fundamentally is not good news. Oil prices have gone down from 92 down to 82, 94 to 82. Oh, they're right back up to 86. Something around there. And every dime at the gas pump is a big dime. So if nothing changes after today, in 10 days, oh, they'll be up at the gas pump. What else did I notice?

They just sticking out. Some leadership going by the way side. J.P. Morgan. So they report earnings. And you know, they're the greatest bookie on earth. And by the way, that's a compliment. The stock was up seven bucks. on earnings and just so you know $7 for a J.P. Morgan is like a $50 for NVIDIA.

It only finished up $2.19. What is that? That is selling into any move. Citigroup. Well, that was up nicely today to 4332. I want to make sure I got this number right. Yes, I do. It was down today. So that reversed. And just, that chart when you have a chance I ask you go check out the chart I posted and you will see one of the widest divergences I have ever seen in the market that got wider today and man I'm watching these mega camps closely big time and guess what starts this week. Already started a little bit today, but in earnest next week, earnings. They better have good reactions. That's all I can tell you. What else today? Semiconductors, guess where they

sold off at? Right at the declining 50-day moving average, just like a bearish phase does. And now we'll see if the semiconductors hold the support of the last couple of weeks. And just just I'm just less than thrilled. And remember, last Friday I said, I think we have A-low. And then I went on to say, but 70% of the markets and downtrends, it is going to be narrow. I think we hit the high. And by the way, the transports, which act like the south end of a northbound jackass, do not break 14-565.

close at 14699. We're giving you numbers here. Up next. What else? This is the one only investor's edge. Guys, it's no use putting it off. The best time for an underwear refresh is now. Tommy John underwear is designed for a perfect fit that stays put all day. Their zero-chafe thanks to four times more stretch than competing brands, and their innovative horizontal quick-drop fly is a game changer. With over 30 million pairs sold, there are thousands of men out there more comfortable than you. Don't settle for less. Go to Tommyjohn.com today for 25% off your first order with Code Comfort.

That's Tommyjohn.com code comfort. Tommy John. Comfort perfected. This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step close, to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet?

Terms apply, lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details. This episode is brought to you by Spreaker. The platform responsible for a rapidly spreading condition known as podcast brain. Symptoms include buying microphones you don't need, explaining RSS feeds to confused relatives, and saying things like, sorry, I can't talk right now, I'm editing audio.

If this sounds familiar, you're probably already a podcaster. The good news is Spreaker makes the whole process simple. You record your show, upload it once, and Spreaker distributes it everywhere people listen. Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and about a dozen apps your cousins swears are the next big thing. Even better, Spreaker helps you monetize your show with ads, meaning your podcast might someday pay for, well, more microphones. Start your show today at spreeker.com. Sprinker, because if you're going to talk to yourself for an hour, you might as well publish it. We're listening to America is talking.

Investors Edge. He's got to be pleased with that. The crowd is just on his feet here. He's a Cinderella boy. With Gary Coltbaum. It comes highly recommended. You're going to feel better if you talk to him. And welcome once again to Investors Edge.

You know, I think the only time I've ever said to you, you, I think maybe two or three times. I know I've done it a few times for the Boys and Girls Clubs of Central Florida to donate. So my son is doing a run. This is my younger son, Eric. He's doing a run for the friends, a 5K, I believe in the next couple of weeks. If you'd like to give 10 bucks, 20 bucks that doesn't have to be big. I'm trying to think the best way to do this. Email me at garyk.com or gulpbom at callbomb.com and I will send you the link. It's one of those big gigantic links.

It take me three hours to even give it out on the show. It's a non-profit. It's a write-off. It's for youths and families. And, you know, it's a little this of that. Okay, so if you'd like to donate, email me at garykhae.com or Gcaltbom at caltbom. What else is going on in this world? I'm not so sure there's anything else that really needs to be talked about right now.

getting a lot of emails from my Oregon peeps, especially Portland. Man, you guys keep voting in these same people. The things I am reading about your beautiful city and what they have done. And you're not alone. There's other cities doing it. I could change it in one week. No, really. I would change it in one week.

Crime you're going to pay? Simple as that. Crime you're going to pay. You're going to jail. You're going to be indicted. It's going to be a felony. You want to keep doing it? That'd be for starters.

It's pretty simple. Just remember, most crooks are wimps. They're cowards and wimps. You put them in a six by nine, they tend to stop. What you're seeing all these videos that you keep popping up about all this shoplifting, they don't think anything's going to happen to them. If something would happen to them, like felony, and you're put in jail, and you're going to have to bond out with a big bond, and if you don't have it, you're staying in jail, and then we're going to indict you, and then we're going to prosecute you, and if we find you guilty, hey, you're going to do a year or two. And if you like doing a year or two, keep shoplifting.

And if you do it a second time, the number goes up, and then the number goes up. And guess what happens when you do that? the shoplifting goes down. That's all. It's Mr. Logic. So you peeps in Portland and San Francisco? No, I am not running for anything there. Sorry.

I like my life. I already checked into running for the house and they scared me straight. I already told you the story, didn't I? The world's gone insane. What else in the news? Did I just want to go through? and there's not much good in that I'm not a Philadelphia Phillies fan. I'm a Mets fan.

I'm a Giants fan. That ain't going to help. So the amount of debt, there's something mysterious going on. The amount of government spending over the last five months has been good enough for like a year, two years. I don't know what's happened. And this is not just Ukraine. We'll be watching.

I know we keep bringing this up, but that is the second most important chart in near term. It's gone vertical, and they better pray that bond yields don't keep going up. The 10-year yields spiked yesterday, he came down today. Didn't help the NASDAQ. Did not help the NASDAQ. If you can tell, I'm somewhat exasperated this week. I don't even know what to make of the things that are being said, the things that are happening. Fortunately, I do believe a major majority. Major majority

is the other, is the right side, the logical side. they're just hanging. Earnings next week. The week after. The week after. Pay attention, kids. By the way, with the NASDAQ up 28 this year, the Russell 2000's down 2.5.

Mid-Cap 400 is flat. The Dow is 1.6. It's all just a few big names. I'm just letting you know. And I will promise you this will not end up very well. the next few months are going to be quite the interesting we will cover everything we will continue to tell you what to stay in what to avoid and we hope you are listening big time now next week I actually thought there were a lot more earnings that next week there aren't it'll be the week

after in a big way unless I got my weeks wrong yes I do next week's a big week and my list is coming up any second, and I'll start yapping away. Monday, Charles Schwab, stocks been very weak. Tuesday, Bank America, very weak. Bank of New York, very weak. Goldman Sachs very weak. Johnson and Johnson and the Dow. Lockheed Martin, the defense stocks had a decent day again today.

Obvious reasons. J.B. Hunter, Trucker. United Airlines. ASML, important semiconductor, M&T Bank, Morgan Stanley, another big bank, Northern Trust, Procter & Gamble, State Street Bank, U.S. Bank Corp. Yeah, we're getting a few. Discovery Financial. Lamb Research, Las Vegas Sands, Netflix.

And man, oh man, that stock's acting. That stocks acting like the Giants Offensive Line. SAP. Tesla, where earnings will be down. Thursday. American Airlines, Alaska Airlines. AT&T, dead stock. Truist, the old SunTrust, I don't know why they change the name, Union Pacific, CSX, Crocs, Friday, American Express, stocks should be much higher considering what my bills look like.

Comerica, Regents Financial, Schlumbergerge. The week after, and the week after that will be Apple, Amazon, Google, Facebook, Microsoft. Should be lots of fun, ladies and gentlemen, as we move forward. And what we simply do is we wake up a little earlier, we go to sleep a little later, and we watch every little move off of every little earnings and sales number, and then close our eyes, hold our nose and pray. Now that doesn't work, but that's how we roll. And we're going to want to find those companies,

that there's a line around the corner for their products or services. And stay away from the opposite. We used to say Target versus Kmart. We can't really say that anymore, right? Target stock's been trashed. Let's call it Walmart versus Kmart. Invest in greatness. I always hear about value, usually buying stocks that are way down.

And usually stocks that are weighed down are there for a darn good reason. One plus one does equal to quite often, ladies and gentlemen. Markets are logical. Believe it or not in the long run. Short run, anything's possible. Up next. Take it to the weekend. This is the one only investor's edge.

Guys, it's no use putting it off. The best time for an underwear refresh is now. Tommy John underwear is designed for a perfect fit that stays put all day. They're zero-chafe thanks to four times more stretch than competing brands, and their innovative horizontal quick-draw fly is a game changer. With over 30 million pairs sold, there are thousands of men out there more comfortable than you. Don't settle for less. Go to Tommyjohn.com today for 25% off your first order with Code Comfort.

That's Tommyjohn.com, code comfort. Tommy John, comfort perfected. This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply. Lounge access is subject to change. See Capital1.com for details. This episode is brought to you by Spreaker. The

platform responsible for a rapidly spreading condition known as podcast brain. Symptoms include buying microphones you don't need, explaining RSS feeds to confused relatives, and saying things like, sorry, I can't talk right now, I'm editing audio. If this sounds familiar, you're probably already a podcaster. The good news is Spreaker makes the whole process simple. You record your show, upload it once, and Spreaker distributes it everywhere people listen. Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and about a dozen apps your cousin's swears are the next big thing. Even better, Spreaker helps you monetize your show with ads, meaning your podcast might someday pay for, well, more microphones. Start your show today at spreeker.com.

Spreaker, because if you're going to talk to yourself for an hour, you might as well publish it. You're listening to. What are we waiting for? Well, what are you waiting for? One, two, ready, go. Action! In the Gester's Edge. With Gary Culpa.

And welcome once again to Investors' Edge. Believe it or not, and I kind of had a little trouble believe in it. Well, for the week, transports were down about three quarters of percent for the week and got smacked today. It was really all the day. The S&P 500 for the week was up almost half percent this week. For the week, the NASDAQ actually was down about two. tenths of 1% this week. For the week, the Dow was up about 8 tenths of 1%. But I do have to make note on the Dow, and I think the Dow hit 33-957 today. At one time, it was up 326. Today, finished up only 39. And that includes United Health being up 14.

on its earnings report times 14 times 6.78, let's call it about 77 points. That was 77 Dow points. The Dow continues to be a weak link trading below. The 200-day moving average. The long-term moving average

as names like McDonald's and 3M are just horror shows. And Disney and Goldman Sachs and Home Depot. and the like. So a day with the Dow had a big chance to have a big day. It was down 70 at one time. Finished up 39.

The NASDAQ down 167. And when I see Nvidia down 15, Facebook down 10, Adobe down 12, Broadcom down 22, Tesla down 8, Microsoft down 3 and a half, Amazon down 260. Apple down two. Oh, we got the wake-up call. When I see the semiconductors, the socks down 95, with the Dow up 39, wake-up call.

When I see the advance declines on the New York, 15 up 23 down, while the Dow's up 39, wake-up call. And the NASDAQ advance declines are just a horror show. I can't be any more louder. when telling you, go get the chart that I posted at garyk.com or my Twitter feed and print it out. If that broad market in the NASDAQ does not get better, there will be an eventuality where they get these megas that have such a huge influence. And then watch what happens to the big indices. Go look where the Russell 2000 is right now.

we don't make this up kids this is decades of study of bull and bear markets decades of study of divergences and to repeat this is one of the widest ones we've ever seen we had to make up a separate screen and it's up to about 300 stocks of Naze tech names that are just being crushed while the NASDAQ is off the highs, but not even close to these average stocks. So I pretty much say all the time, they better keep these guys up. And today they came after them. And a few of them were acting pretty decent into the beginning of the week. Not today.

And it tells you, I think, a lot. Which takes us again, earnings. Earnings are coming out. They better act well. Or, just to be nice, they better not get trashed. Now, as I mentioned gold, I'll be really going over them this week. Gold had a great week. By the way, the GLD this week, which is the ETF for gold, was up 5.3%.

the pHs they say it's the physical 5.4% the gold miners GDX 7.6% and the GDXJ 6 and a small miners technically looks like a rally I can't take much more out of it just looks like a rally of unknown price and time I don't see that the downtrend has changed into an uptrend but strong week and probably meaningful and as I've said I'm still flammoxed on gold and why when inflation was at 9% oils I have been teased on them each week on buy don't buy buy don't buy and so far I'm happy I haven't bought but they ended up pretty decent today and I have to tell you up $4.60 today on oil prices And I was looking for news, and there's been talk about Iran cutting off oil at the Straits of Hormuz, which would get prices up.

And of course, what's happening in the Middle East also. Who knows what's next? What we are hearing right now is Israel tactically moving into Gaza with soldiers, and let's hope they're able to do it in a way where, They get the hostages, take out the animals, and hopefully keep things in some sort of, I don't know if you know this, they send out millions of leaflets into the air to move south to the people to get out of there. And of course, these animals, these wimps, these cowards, they hide with the citizens, thinking, oh, they're not going to do anything with the citizens around. If they do, we're going to win the political war. Well, unfortunately, they've been right with some people. So that stuff's going to be fluid.

We're heading into the weekend. I expect a lot of, for lack of a better word, action this weekend in Israel. Anyway, you have a great weekend. Drive carefully. When you get home, do like we do. Make sure you hug your family. Make sure you really hug your children. Thanks for joining us.

Same time back Monday. I'm going to take a nap. Bye, bye, all. Take care. This has been Investor's Edge with Gary Cult Bomb on BizTalk. To listen to past episodes or to get in contact with Gary, go to garyk.com. That's GaryK.com. Guys, it's no use putting it off. The best time for an underwear refresh is now.

Tommy John Underwear is designed for a perfect fit that's days put all day. Their zero chafe thanks to four times more stretch than competing brands, and their innovative horizontal quick draw fly is a game changer. With over 30 million pairs sold, there are thousands of men out there more comfortable than you. Don't settle for less. Go to Tommyjohn.com today for 25% off your first order with code comfort. That's Tommyjohn.com code comfort. Tommy John. Comfort perfected. This message is brought to you by the Capital One VentureX card. VentureX offers the premium benefits, expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect.

Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply. Lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details.