Investor's Edge with Gary Kaltbaum - Tumbling down! [08.05.2024]

Episode Date: August 5, 2024

https://garykaltbaum.com/

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subject to changes. Investor's Edge with Gary Coltbaum. Straight talk about you and your money. Now from the BizTalk Studios, here is Gary Cultbaum. And welcome once again to Investors Edge. I'm Gary Kalpom, your host. A thanks of being with us today. Glad you're here, ladies and gentlemen.

Happy that you are listening. Yeah, I know we're back. And yeah, I know we don't have a lot of good news. But if you've been listening, you may have bypassed a lot of it. it is Monday two days after summer slam and boy what a good summer slam it was all right that's my

wrestling for the weekend it is August 5th 2024 hope you had a good weekend as you know traveled up to New York traveled back to New York as usual flights were delayed like crazy where we had some weather in here in

Florida saw my grandson saw my parents on one end the grandson. On the other end, my parents. 92 and 91. Mom's out at a hospital, back at home. But just letting you know how it's going, you can tell strength has been

sapped, had surgery for a stroke, no bad real effects, but the age thing is going on. And for the first time ever, my father said we may need to go into assisted living. which I think we should, but he would always say to me, I'm not going anywhere with a couple of expletives in between. So that was the weekend, heading back at the end of the week. That's how we roll right now. Ladies and gentlemen, this is a show about everything that affects you.

We do the markets, the economy, jobs, debt and deficits, central banks and the like. We have warned you about the recent happenings in the market. We don't know what's next. We don't know about tomorrow. We don't know what rabbit they're going to pull out of their hat out of D.C. Because we know they're very good at that. But the Dow was down 1,034 today.

hit a low, I believe. Let me give you the exact number while I got you on the Dow. The Dow hit 3849, so it was down about 1,200 and 40 at one time. Damn. Yeah, I think that's about right. The S&P finished down 160 today to 5186. It was as low as 5119. So at about 67, at one time it was 227.

The NASDAQ, the good news, the bad news, I keep mixing it up. It was down 576 points today, the NASDAQ. The good news is, believe it or not, at one time today, a thousand and eighty four and that was right at the open the NASDAQ 100 the bad news is it finished down 545 points today the good news is that at one time today oh boy 17435 that's 460 it was down 1,0005 points today let's do this by the book short quarter term, which means what's been going on about now over the last couple of weeks. Price is stretched, extended, oversold to the downside. I would love to say the other part of the

equation, that bearishness has really picked up, but I watch today. one after the other saying it's just a correction. It's not a big deal. Everything's going to be fine. Don't worry. It's a-okay. None of these people warned you about the drop like we did, though. Now, we're not saying they're wrong.

Maybe the worst is going to be over because the NASDAQ's loss was cut in half today. I wouldn't be surprised if we bounced from here even more than we bounced today. For some reason, the market loves going NASDAQ beats the hell out of me. Why? That's the short term. The bigger picture is, ew. That's the best way I can put it. And all the questions have been, is this going to turn into something of real,

Consequence, I do not know. If you remember back when things were topping in 21, and we were telling you things were topping, left and right in 21, we used the same verbiage at the time, and that was, all we can tell you is we are now in one heck of a decent downtrend. That's all we can tell you. and as things worsened, we just guided you to the point of bare markets. And we knew more and more when every day we would come on this show and say to you,

oh, I got 30 more names that broke. Oh, 50 more names that broke, 80 more names that broke. Oh, 3 to 1 negative advanced declines. New yearly lows, 800, new yearly highs, 8. The process. This started July 11th. with the top in technology. That was the day we told you we thought it was a big sell signal.

We even went out of our way and told you we sold most of our tech. We sold the rest of it just a few days later with Apple and Amazon. Very good sell on Apple too. But that led us into last week. Because of getting out of technology, we were in lots of cash, but we did own. You know, they were small and midcaps were acting well. The S&P broke back above the 50-day moving average last week. But we never got invested to the point we were 85% in cash, and by going into Friday, 100.

Full and fair disclosure, we have accounts that come in that are transferring a ton of stuff. They'll have some things transferred in. We're talking about a fully managed accounts that have been for a while. while. Do we think the powers that be are going to step in? My best guess is yes. Will it matter? Well, with things so stretched, extended and oversold, probably yes in the near term. Probably yes. In the near term. I don't know if I can go further than that. We'll see. I have yet to scan. Most things, I'm going to use a certain term.

Most things are busting up technically. Some things worse than others. And what that means busted up technically, breaking trends, breaking below support areas, down trends of unknown price and time. and then you've had these moves. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index at the low today. By the way, finished down 88. At one time today, it was 4290.

It was down at one time today about 327, only finished down 88. At the lows today, since that July 11th top was down 28% in less than a month. This is the all-important semi-examination. Conductor Index, the socks. And that's the index. A basket of stocks, which means a bunch of them were way worse. So as somebody that got the hell out of the way, what we're looking for now is some defense.

Got some today in the NASDAQ. Being down 1,000 and finishing down 500 and change, that believe it or not, that's defense. Next, I'm going to tell you where. And then we've got to take a few things on. This is the one only Investor's Edge. Hi, I'm Gary Kalbaum, hosted a nationally syndicated radio show Investors Edge. We're not just handsome radio people.

We manage investors' money for a living, specializing in fee-based discretionary money management. No big commissions, just a fee on the assets that's managed. We also provide a full range of personalized services, including retirement planning, fixed income, and educational needs. all to assist you in achieving your financial goals. Understanding not all individuals have the same needs, we'll carefully evaluate your personal goals

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The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply. Lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details. This episode is brought to you by Sprecker. The platform responsible for a rapidly spreading condition known as podcast brain. Symptoms include buying microphones you don't need,

explaining RSS feeds to confused relatives, and saying things like, sorry, I can't talk right now, I'm editing audio. If this sounds familiar, you're probably already a podcaster. The good news is Spreaker makes the whole process simple. You record your show, upload it once, and Spreaker distributes it everywhere people listen. Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and about a dozen apps your cousin swears are the next big thing. Even better, Spreaker helps you monetize your show with ads, meaning your podcast might someday pay for, well, more microphones. Start your show today at spreeker.com.

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So, if I'm to take out any positives today, just today, the NASDAQ went down to the long-term. Remember what a moving average is? it's just adding up the closes of the day and dividing by that number. We follow the 50-day moving average is the end-all-be-all. The 200-day is the longer-term moving average. Once you get below that, you're in hell. The NASDAQ went all the way down to it today and a little bit undercut but finished nicely above it today.

So potentially, a line in the sand near term, the NASDAQ 100 did the same. I didn't even realize this, but the NASDAQ at the lows today, we have gone from 18671 to 15708. 2,900? It's like 16% since July 11th cell signal. I hate to use the we'll see. We'll see. New yearly lows

Got about almost 900 New yearly highs Not really You know where the highs are right defensive issues For the most part Advanced declines today

Bad Which takes us to the Other parts of the equation So as you know We think there's oh Crypto Crypto was smashed and we continue to be of the belief that it's just a high beta asset got melted down today pretty decent

be careful which takes us to the next part of the equation what's causing all this as you know we've been on top of it as you know we try not to target things and predict things but outline things with some logic. I say that I'm Mr. Logic, and we've been pretty logical about things. So let's do a few things here. Number one, technology stocks. As we explained to you, they became the most concentrated in the market in history. Six stocks, six stocks with 30% of the S&P 500, six, eight stocks almost 50% of the NASDAQ 100.

The six stocks were all the big tech. of the eight seven were big tech how do you get there it's when institutions get over owned over loved of certain things and that's where you end up with all that concentration when things go awry where do you think they sell off that's number one so that's july 11th signal was this big gargantuan down day on very heavy volume and that just gives us a big signal where do we learn about these signals, well, we've been doing it for many years for you. Go get the books that we tell you about. Go get the books. By O'Neill, Gil Morales, John Boyk, B-O-I-K, Market Wizards books, Mark Minervini, Stan Weinstein. They're all in there. So technology in big trouble. We also outlined for you the potential for the

hype, the tout, the over-ordering. Very often in semiconductors over the past few decades, things get hype, touted, and companies buy more than they need or buy more than they think they need. And when they end up with too much, it ends up being what they call a glut. And when there's a glut of chips at these places,

they don't have to buy any more. What do you think happens to the makers of chips? Their earnings and sales fall off a cliff, and there goes the stocks. And we're worried about them because you have names now like Micron, just for the heck of it. Have you heard that Micron stock

has dropped from 157 to a low of 90 today in a matter of six weeks? You haven't heard that, you know why? Because analysts have kept their strong buys on it and keep raising their targets. And I can go through the rest of the names, but I'm making my point with that one. So that's that other component.

We'll see. Over the weekend, Warren Buffett announced that they announced that they got rid of half their Apple stock. Apple opened down 20 bucks today. Finished only down 10 and change. I almost bought Apple today. We sold it up at 228, but I'm not courageous. So we didn't buy. I wish I did on the open.

I would have made some cheese, but I'm good with that. It's not like I would have bought a ton and changed my world. So there's these things that we're watching, and then of course there's the economy. And here's the problem. The powers that be have made themselves so important, and we have found out the powers that be, don't have a freaking clue what's going on. And there's a word, an intangible word, when it comes to markets, that sometimes bubbles up to the top. Confidence.

so if the number one most important financial man on earth doesn't have a clue and it showed up again that he does not have a clue what do you think markets do I think there's a component of that also and you know what we mean by that J. Powell was major league behind the curve and wrong when inflation started skyrocketing, caused all that problem. And now he's major league behind the curve on the economy

as rates have plunged while he just sits there. And Wednesday of last week had an opportunity to play a little catch-up and he just sat there. And now with him sitting at 5.5% yields are down to 3.785 on the 10 year. That's behind the curve.

It's like me running the 100 against Usain Bolt. I would be Jay Powell. Usain Bolt would be the 10-year yield. And the markets are in recognition of this. They got pissed off back in 21, 22 one way. They're happening the other way right now. And the problem is, Jay Powell is still the most important financial character on this earth. But it's not just that.

It's the reality. I think it's the reality that yields coming down like this are telegraphing some economic strife. We have been telling you for a while about some economic numbers that headed south but also told you until the job market goes by-bye. We'll talk the jobs next. And much more. I'm Gary. This is the one only investor's edge.

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This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply. Lounge access is subject to change. See Capital1.com for details. This episode is brought to you by Spreaker. The platform responsible for a rapidly spreading condition known as podcast brain. Symptoms include buying microphones you don't need, explaining RSS feeds to confused relatives, and saying things like, sorry, I can't talk right now,

I'm editing audio. If this sounds familiar, you're probably already a podcaster. The good news is Spreaker makes the whole process simple. You record your show, upload it once, and Spreaker distributes it everywhere people listen. Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and about a dozen apps your cousins swears are the next big thing. Even better, Spreaker helps you monetize your show with ads, meaning your podcast might someday pay for, well, more microphones. Start your show today at spreeker.com. Sprinker, because if you're going to talk to yourself for an hour, you might as well publish it.

We're listening to America is talking. Investors Edge. He's got to be pleased with that. The crowd is just on his feet here. He's a Cinderella boy. With Gary Colbomb. It comes highly recommended. You're going to feel better if you talk to him.

So, for about three months, we've been saying to you, just giving you some channel checks of ours. We have been telling you how much more people were paying for so many things, and not just at the supermarket, but for insurance, health, home, auto, paper goods. Have you seen chips? Have you seen how the bags are so much smaller now in potato chip and Doritos land? That's the shrinkflation. That's been going on. but what else has been going on? What else we've been telling you?

Amazon and Walmart that between the two do like 1.3 trillion in revenues have stated they're worried about the consumer. Yet Jay Powell is out saying, they're good. Who do you believe? Who would you listen to? Two retailers with 1.3 trillion of revenues or a guy that sits in the Eccles building in Washington, D.C. picking his nose.

A little sarcasm. Or Starbucks that I was telling you the ones we go to, their business is down 25%. By the way, Starbucks just announced sales down 6%. So maybe the ones I go to, not as well. Those are same store sales. Retail chains. I get emails every day to go to these websites. They're giving you 25% off, 50% off, 35% off.

Why do you think retailers are doing that? Why do you think McDonald's is doing $5 meals and some doing $4 meals? We've been telling you these things. Let me explain why. It's to attract consumers because the consumer is spent up and beat up caused by Powell and Biden. Powell's printing of money and Biden's asinine, asset 10 and ass 11 spending, deficit spending.

But all we've heard from the Fed is soft landing. A lot of pundits, soft landing. Today, the many said, It's soft landing. And then there's some jackasses that go out and tell you, oh, it's just the correction. Don't worry. And I'm thinking to myself, wait a minute. I've got like a thousand stocks that are down 25 to 40 percent.

And somebody has the nerve to go out there and say it's just the correction. Up yours. Tell that to the people that are getting whooped. But I digress. So again, I have no idea what happens tomorrow. I try to take what I can feel from the market and see from the market. And the best thing I can tell you today is the NASDAQ, almost cut losses in half, held the 200-day move-in average. I would not be surprised if it bounces some here, but is that going to change the complexion?

And I would just tell you, be careful of that. we'll let you know if things change. The Dow stayed down worse than the NASDAQ NASDAQ 100 today. For whatever reason. Even defensive stocks got hit because all stocks get hit and we tell you we're not buying defensive. Financials came down pretty hard today, but Goldman Sachs was down 30, finished only down 11. That's also good to see. we're trying to take out anything good coming out of this

now what about Powell well the talk of emergency rate cuts he's going to do everything he can not to do one that's my opinion just my opinion but I do believe if the markets continue to swoon the hand may get forced and the bottom line is the market's pissed at him

he's missed the boat again. And we're talking just market here. Just remember, if he lowers rates, it's not going to affect you or I. Rates are already down. Now, why economic trouble? Why? Well, if we're paying 25% more for everything we buy, it can be economic trouble. And if companies are having issues, guess what, the job market. And as we've stated to you, the job market, the job market, It looks like it's starting to, we use the term falling off a ledge. We don't think it's fallen off a Grand Canyon ledge. But it's definitively softening, and the question is,

and there's some people out there to believe once it gets moving the wrong way, it stays moving the wrong way for a while. I'm agnostic on that statement. Here's my big worry, though. Anybody know a gentleman by the name of Austin Goolsby? He is now one of the central bankers. I think he's a voting member. I'm not 100% sure.

I'll have to check that. I'm going to make a statement that he said today in an interview. And this is what scares the living hell out of me, ladies and gentlemen. And it really does scare the living hell out of me. One of the central bankers. Now, I don't know if he's talking for everybody or just himself. If the economy deteriorates, the Fed will fix it. The economy is $25 trillion at this juncture.

You know who the economy is? It's not them. It's us. It's 160 million people that go to work every day, trying to do better for themselves and families. But we're being told by a central banker, if the economy deteriorates, they'll fix it.

The people that cause the inflation will fix it. The people that were way behind the curve of inflation were wrong on inflation will fix it. The people that are now wrong on the economy and we'll find out to what extent over time.

They'll fix it. Do you know how ill this statement is? Nothing personal. This is purely business. I'm sure he's a nice man. Never met him. I've seen him on TV a lot. But you know how ill that is? They're going to fix a $25 trillion economy that they've screwed up big time. And by the way, enabled massive debt and deficits from the Morlocks in D.C. with their zero percent rates,

created distortions where people refuse to sell a home because they got 3 percent mortgages, which was created by one man's whims, not the free market, they're going to fix it? Let me repeat. It scares the hell out of me. Notice my silence. So, wouldn't be surprised if we bounce from here. Have no clue about tomorrow. I don't know what central bankers are going to do. I don't know if Powell's going to do anything. Maybe he's just going to sit there. I do not know. I do know what a downtrend looks like, and I do know what oversold looks like. You've got a combination of both right now. I do know when the market's speaking up about certain things,

and the market is worried about the economy right now. We were asked about, isn't it good if the Fed's going to cut rates? Well, the market knows they're going to cut rates already. Market already knows it. He's going to cut rates already. We can't guarantee anything here, but if we could, that would be a guarantee. We're also, it's probably early, going to keep scanning what's holding up best, what refuses to go down. What's holding up?

What were the great reactions to earnings? Why? If they can't go down the bad market, up next, we'll finish off Mr. Goolsby. Our thoughts on that, I'm Gary. This is the one only investor's edge. It's no use putting it off. The best time for an underwear refresh is now. Tommy John Underwear is designed for a purpose.

perfect fit that stays put all day. Their zero-chafe thanks to four times more stretched than competing brands and their innovative horizontal quick-draw fly is a game changer. With over 30 million pairs sold, there are thousands of men out there more comfortable than you. Don't settle for less. Go to Tommyjohn.com today for 25% off your first order with code comfort. That's Tommyjohn.com code comfort. Tommy John, comfort perfected. This message is brought to you by the Capital One VentureX card. VentureX offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer

to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply. Lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details. This episode is brought to you by Spreaker.

The platform responsible for a rapidly spreading condition known as a... as podcast brain. Symptoms include buying microphones you don't need, explaining RSS feeds to confused relatives, and saying things like, sorry, I can't talk right now, I'm editing audio. If this sounds familiar, you're probably already a podcaster. The good news is Spreaker makes the whole process simple. You record your show, upload it once, and Spreaker distributes it everywhere people listen, Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and about a dozen apps your cousin's swears are the next big thing. Even better, Sprinker helps you monetize your show. with ads, meaning your podcast might

someday pay for, well, more microphones. Start your show today at spreeker.com. Sprinker, because if you're going to talk to yourself for an hour, you might as well publish it. You're listening to. What are we waiting for?

Well, what are you waiting for? One, two, ready, go. Action! In the Gester's Edge. With Gary Culpa. Okay. So, um, Let's talk about who's the economy. What did you do today?

Went to fill up gas in your car? At a gas station, maybe it was a 7-Eleven, or maybe it was a gas station with a store, the person behind the cash register, giving you your lottos or you paying for your smokes or whatever you got there, your Red Bull or whatever, that person's the economy. You pass a lot of trucks today?

big 18 wheelers those truckers i don't know how they do it by the way they're the economy you pass a bunch of schools a lot of them are down right now it's summer those teachers they're the economy you know what those schools they have janitors they're the economy the baristas at starbucks the people stocking the shell at the supermarkets and the stores at 3 a.m. in the morning that you never see. They're the economy. Not Winston in the background that's barking. The landscapers were at my house today. They're the economy and the people from waste management picked up the garbage at my house today. They're the economy. The billionaires that have created massive wealth.

they're the economy the engineers the construction workers I don't know how some of these construction workers do what they do they're the economy lawyers the economy

paralegals the economy baseball players football players tennis players did you see Jokovic against Alcaraz this weekend wow they're the economy the owners of any business are the economy.

You're the economy. I'm the economy. We're the economy. And we're doing everything right. We're waking up, thinking about our families. How can we do better than yesterday? How can we take care of our families better? How can we take care of ourselves better?

How can we make more money? what can we do differently? That's the economy. I call it the economy of striving. The economy. And as I taught my kids, you better treat the person who cleans the toilet with more respect than the guy who,

the CEO of the building, because if the toilets go awry, your S-O-L, as they say. Yet Austin Goulby says, Goolsby says, oh, if the economy goes wrong or gets worse or deteriorates, they'll fix it. I would respectfully say this to his face. You can't fix it because you have no ammo. We're bigger than you.

We're better than you. We're smarter than you. And all you do is getting the way. You've missed the mark every time. You're not proactive. active and your love of massive debt, deficits, easy money, printing money. By the way, Austin Goolsby worked as an economic advisor in the White House while these deficits have skyrocketed. Who's going to fix the economy? The economy would be much, much better if these people would get out of their government.

jobs and maybe get into the economy like we're in. Therein lies the problem. They try to fix it, the problem they created, and they make it worse every time. There's your economy. When you see those chips are half the size bags, they cause that. people not selling homes because they will not switch from a 3% mortgage into a 7, they cause that. Yet they're going to fix things. As I have stated before, it's like going to a doctor for your broken left arm and they put a cast on your right arm.

I have never been more hopeful and optimistic on us. I have never been more pessimistic on them. And statements like that, as well as the reactive from the most important financial person on Earth, that is now so far behind the curve, pretty much on record. I'm sure you'll hear about Japan also. That's an outcome of zero percent rates forever. and using government to buy up their stocks, and just raising rates a quarter of point,

and created 25% drop in their market. A quarter point raise created a 25% drop in their market. Fragile? You bet. You know where we stand? We pull no punches. Hopefully tomorrow is better. as we stated, very oversold, very stretched to the downside.

Bounces can happen at any time, even tomorrow, but we want that major trend and get it right. Have a great one, everybody. Drive carefully, and when you get home, do like we do, quite simple. Make sure you hug your family. Make sure you hug your children. They will feel better. You will feel better. I promise.

Appreciate you joining us. Until tomorrow. Good night. This has been Investors' Edge with Gary Cult Bomb on BizTalk. To listen to past episodes or to get in contact with Gary, go to GaryKK.com. That's GaryK.com. Guys, it's no use putting it off. The best time for an underwear refresh is now.

Tommy John Underwear is designed for a perfect fit that stays put all day. Their zero-chafe thanks to four times more stretch than competing brands. And their innovative horizontal quick-draw fly is a game changer. With over 30 million pairs sold, there are thousands of men out there more comfortable than you. Don't settle for less. Go to Tommyjohn.com today for 25% off your first order with Code Comfort. That's Tommyjohn.com code comfort. Tommy John. Comfort perfected.

This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase. bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet?

Terms apply, lounge access is subject to change. See Capital1.com for details.