Investor's Edge with Gary Kaltbaum - UH OH!

Episode Date: June 9, 2022

More Info At: http://garykaltbaum.comMore

At CVS, it matters that we're not just in your community, but that we're part of it. It matters that we're here for you when you need us, day or night, and we want everyone to feel welcomed and rewarded. It matters that CVS is here to fill your prescriptions and here to fill your craving for a tasty and, yeah, healthy snack. At CBS, we're proud to serve your community because we believe where you get your medicine matters. So visit us at CVS.com or just come by your food. store we can't wait to meet you store hours vary by location investors edge with gary coltbaum straight talk about you and your money now from the biz talk studios here is gary cult bomb and welcome once again to investors edge i'm gary colpom your host day thanks for being with us today

glad you hear ladies and gentlemen happy that you are listening it's thursday it is uh june ninth and you know i didn't realize i tested positive on covid June 1st. So today's, it's like nine days. But I retested two days ago on the 7th, and I'm feeling much better, just a little tired, no fever throughout. So I'm going to retest on the weekend. Hopefully this crap is gone. I'm also being told by doctors that I won't spread it anymore if I have no fever. And I'm like, really? I had no idea. Anyway, that is our COVID talk for the day. Ladies and gentlemen, you know, we don't pull punches here, whether it comes to markets or whether it comes to Washington, D.C. We pull no punches.

And as you know, we believe that we are in the midst of a bust. It started in February of 21 with all the speculative crap, whether it be marijuana, 3D stocks, solar cells, Chinese ADRs, SPACs, ridiculously priced initial public offerings, hugs of junk that we affectionately started calling them. You know, companies that have no sales, have very little in sales. Lose a ton of money. Overeated and overpriced, high beta growth, Chinese ADRs, electric vehicle, and little by little piece by piece, inch by inch, they took them down. And then they started to get after more growth and more growth.

and more growth. And while the S&P amazingly finished up 28% last year, a bunch of the market was getting slaughtered. And what we try to tell you when we hope you listened was all that money was coming out of risk and parking itself in the biggest freaking names that made the S&P the grand Puba until it isn't.

and then we warned you about inflation, distortions, you name it, it's all come to fruition. We don't need credit for it, but we were the first people on this earth right here to tell you about inflation as the outcome of this dalt at the central bank. this amateur in the White House, this amateur as Treasury Secretary, and of course, the whole party, as well as the Republicans, that have all taken us the 30 trillion of debt. And that led to October, November, where we were stunned and amazed

to see one of the biggest divergences we have ever seen in our lifetime where the NASDAQ and NASDAQ 100 hit new yearly highs, but 500 stocks hit new yearly lows that day. The widest divergence we've ever seen the next day the NASDAQ topped out. And we've gone through this process. It's called bare market. And stunningly to us, one of the main, main rules we have learned not we didn't make it up it came from the icon william o'neill that in

bare markets past leaders will drop 70% or more and holy hell a ton have dropped 70% or more stalwarts names that were talked about every day including us when they were in a bull market like PayPal and Square and Shopify and others have been utterly destroyed. And then they started getting everything else in November, which led to January when the inflation trade showed up. That's when oil emerged, commodity types, and away they went, while away the other way, everything else went. We had a couple of big leg down, legs to the downside, culminating in about three weeks ago, where after stunningly that last 16 days, the NASDAQ, this was not even from the lower high, but the NASDAQ dropped 25%, almost, the S&P 18% in 16 trading days.

and that started what we have titled Bare Market Rally. And we described for you what that meant. While people on every update are calling the bottom and the bottom and the bottom and the bottom, and the bottom, we're saying to you, bare market rally. The reason you get bare market rallies is because you drop 25% in 16 days on the NASDAQ and 18% on the S&P. You get counter trends. We even described it for you what it would look like.

Get your watch out, draw a line from 8 to 2. That's what the price looks like plotted as it drifts towards the declining moving averages, which got very close in the last few days. There was a thought we've had eight straight days of nothingness. Tease the upside to break out of the little range. Tease the downside to break down out of the range.

And what we do is just wait for outcome. That's all. Wait for outcome. Knowing bear market rally. Why do we wait for outcome? Because there's no rule that we could not. rally up even further we have seen bear market rallies last couple of months if not more this one lasted four days before turning right yesterday was not a good day it wasn't

the worst of days but was not a good day and we outlined for you support level 11,900 on the NASDAQ. And we use the NASDAQ because it's the risk index in my world. And I will tell you throughout all of today, it was not a good day. But it was not the end of the world type day. We drifted lower most of the day. We tried to rally up. at about 110 we were 12,052 only down about 30 NASDAQ points after being worse

the NASDAQ finished down 332 points the NASDAQ 100, 345 points the S&P 97 points the SOX 81 points the transports 288 points the Dow 638 points did we have any clues well you're damn straight we did You know what the clues were. Transports were down 555 points yesterday. That doesn't happen in new bull markets. That doesn't happen when a market bottoms. What was the other clue? What did we tell you?

Every up day, people were speculating and buying up GameStop. Clues, evidence. And that's what we deal with here. So a miserable close, a low on the day close. Up next. Oh, whatever. Lots more. We're going to depress you.

I'm Gary. This is the one only Investors Edge. Hi, I'm Gary Kalbaum, hosted a nationally syndicated radio show Investors Edge. We're not just handsome radio people. We manage investors money for a living, specializing in fee-based discretionary money management. No big commissions, just a fee on the assets. that's managed. We also provide a full range of personalized services, including retirement planning, fixed income, and educational needs, all to assist you in achieving your financial goals.

Understanding not all individuals have the same needs, we'll carefully evaluate your personal goals to determine a proper investment strategy. If your current approach to investing is not getting you to where you would like to be, call us to make an appointment for a complementary portfolio review. The number to call is 888-4-22. 5559. That's 888-422-5-5-9. That's 888, 422-5-5-9. Investment Advisory Services offered through call-bomb capital management. The world isn't getting any calmer. Economic instability, global conflicts, and record national debt have created an environment where financial uncertainty is a part of everyday life.

And while none of us can control those forces, we can control how prepared we are for them. Market swings are hitting retirement accounts and savings harder than ever, leaving many Americans wondering how to protect what they've built. That's why people are exploring physical gold and silver as a part of a broader strategy. These are tangible assets with a long history of being used when confidence in traditional markets waivers. They're not a promise of returns and they're not a replacement for existing investments. They're simply another tool to help diversify our portfolio. Preserve gold provides clear educational guidance to help you understand how precious metals can play a role in long-term planning. including options for holding them in an IRA.

For your free wealth protection guide, text IHeart to 50505. And with a qualified purchase, you could receive up to $15,000 in free gold or silver. Simply text IHeart to 50505. Online reviews say I'm steep, rocky, and a difficult trail. Next time, I'm going to say, not if you're driving a Toyota truck. We know what we're made of, Toyota Trucks. Time to switch on the integrator units and get the brain cells working. You're listening to.

Hey, this promises to be fun. Investors Edge. The last bastion of quality programming. With Gary Coltbaum. It doesn't get better than this. And welcome once again to Investors Ed. So let me stop for a second and let you know that tomorrow is this breathlessly awaiting, breathlessly awaited.

inflation report but you know when that inflation reports from May what do I give a crap about May you know what I do know oil prices in the last two and a half weeks

are up like 10 to 15% on top of what already happened I don't need any darn inflation report from the government to tell me what's going on and just remember what our government has done throughout the years. Throughout the decades, they have changed the formula on inflation to make it lower than it used to be. They change the formula on the GDP to make it higher than it used to be.

You think they're not con artists? You think people that have taken us the 30 trillion of debt are not scammers or con artists? So everybody's waiting for that. The market did not wait for it today. I see no news that lit the fuse into the close today, except the roadmap. The roadmap dictates bare market rallies will usually abort in and around the declining 50. day moving average. Time and time again, though, it's gone above it for a few weeks before getting murdered again.

This go round, if this is the high, didn't even get there. Financials got there and just sold off from it today. Other things got there on an individual basis and just sold off today. but the roadmap playing out. So the market wrap is brought to you by Investment-Dashmodels.com. That's Jim Rohrabak, one of the great market timers. No gray areas with the man you're either in or out of the market with his proprietary indicators.

Go check it out. Investment-dashmodels.com, as I said, 638 on the Dow. And it was, how do I put it best? Into the close. The Dow at 2 p.m. was 32. 822 dropped 550 points from 2 p.m. From 3 p.m. drop 420. And may I be clear and concise about this?

That ain't Aunt Mary and Uncle Bob selling their stock. These are the big gigantic institutions that drive markets that are saying, We done on the rally. Now, we do get that report tomorrow. Anything's possible. We have no clue what tomorrow brings. That's the trees.

Who knows, maybe they gap it up tomorrow. They could. Maybe the number looks better than expected. It could. It will not change the major trend. in the markets and in the average stock. Simple as that. It's the best way I can explain it.

There's the trees. Tomorrow the next day, last hour. Then there's the forest, which is the big gigantic picture. What is the main trends? And that was a very bad close on the day. But let me repeat again. We have no clue about tomorrow. The White House may have telegraphed it saying we expect the number to be elevated,

but I remember a couple of months ago they did that and it came in a little better than expected. What, you don't think they play the market? We'll see. It will not change the main trend. What you have, again, is what we started telling you many moons ago. You have a central bank that every time they took out their little, wand and sprayed the pixie dust onto the market, it listened like a little doggy on a leash, waiting for this next little bone.

How were they able to do it? Printed money, more and more and more, taking out another credit card with a higher credit limit to pay for their last one. But as we told you, a long time ago, this is terrible long term. massive debt deficits and deficits and one man and his whims, one man with no accountability or oversight, gets the print trillions of dollars out of thin air, and play the markets with no risk,

interfering with you, and everybody else, screwing savers, creating the most massive wealth inequality in our history, by bubbling up every freaking asset price, which, by the way, is now coming back to Earth. And you know what our last call is. The housing market.

Guess what's starting to happen? The housing market. That was a gimmy. The affordability from the bubble, or lack of affordability, combined with rates finally giving him the middle finger because of the inflation he created. That one-two punch, housing's coming down.

And you know it's going to come down the most? In the bubble areas. The hottest areas will come down the most. They will pull an Eiffel Tower, straight up, straight down. They'll eventually find some levels. And we'll see at that point. And that'll also affect the wealth effect. So here you got this guy that enabled everything,

but also enable the inflation that now he has to fight and the only way he can fight it is doing the opposite of what he always loves to do and wants to do but can't do and that's print more money. He's got to do the opposite because he doesn't want 20% inflation. He still wants a legacy. So now he's got to fight that.

Rates are going higher. Up next. Oh, but there's somebody else involved. And then we'll go neck deep into what I'm saying. This is the one only investors at. Struggling to see up close, make it visible with Viz. Viz is a once daily prescription eye drop to treat blurry near vision for up to 10 hours. The most common side effects that may be experienced while using Viz include eye irritation, temporary dimmer, dark vision, headaches and eye redness.

Talk to an eye doctor to learn if Viz is right for you. Learn more at Viz.com. The world isn't getting any calmer. Economic instability, global conflicts, and record national debt. have created an environment where financial uncertainty is a part of everyday life. And while none of us can control those forces, we can control how prepared we are for them. Market swings are hitting retirement accounts and savings harder than ever, leaving many Americans wondering how to protect what they've built.

That's why people are exploring physical gold and silver as a part of a broader strategy. These are tangible assets with a long history of being used when confidence in traditional markets waivers. They're not a promise of returns and they're not a replacement for existing investments. There's simply another tool to help diversify our portfolio. Preserve gold provides clear educational guidance to help you understand how precious metals can play a role in long-term planning, including options for holding them in an IRA. For your free wealth protection guide, text IHeart to 50505. And with a qualified purchase, you could receive up to $15,000 in free gold or silver.

Simply text IHart to 50505. Online reviews say I'm steep, rocky, and a doleaf. difficult trail next time i'm gonna say not if you're driving a to a toado truck we know what we're made of to toyota trucks we're listening to america is talking investors edge he's got to be pleased with that the crowd is just on his feet here he's a Cinderella boy with Gary cult bomb comes highly recommended you're gonna feel better if you talk to him so who's the other numbsculls well you have somebody at the European Central Bank with who Hawaii has now promised to raise

rates for the first time. You ready for this? Since 2011. You ready for this? They're still in negative rates while their inflation is soaring. You know how they got to this point

of massive money printing and negative rates? J. Pell got him to do it. The fact is, this Christine Lagarde after this guy Mario Draghi, who now runs Italy, who is ground zero there, just followed Jay Powell's lead. They talked to each other, and they started printing the exact same amounts. And guess what the inflation is in Europe? Big. So now that the inflations come, and now that they have to roll back the easy

money, what does that mean? Well, the excessive froth, speculation, valuations, greed, Crazy nuts buying into God knows what kind of crap gets unwound. And we've already unwound. What I tell you about the marijuana stocks yesterday. We've been yelling about the marijuana stocks forever. Aurora cannabis, 147 to a buck 48. We're not making this crap up. Blow it up, busts.

The meme stocks. blown up, bust, though they keep buying GameStop on every up day, which is not a good sign. The electric vehicle, blown up, bus, Rivian. That's what the hell they were able to bring out an IPO that in the first couple of days had no sales, but had just about the same market cap as Ford and GM who had 260 billion in sales. blown up. Oh, and by the way, as an aside, to tell you what we mean by creeps and greed and scumbags, and I would say it to this person's face, the chief executive of Rivien, received a pay package valued over $400 million. before they even sold a freaking car,

as the company raced to the public markets. And there's another one called Lucid did the same. Now, they're both going to have sales. Valuations are a joke, accounting for no risk. Jay Powell Bubbles. So fast forward, we're going through this process, Let me repeat. I have no clue about what this inflation number is. It doesn't matter to me. Should not matter to you. What should matter to you is when you go to the gas pump and holy crap and oil was down almost a buck today, yay. So I don't know whether the market craps again tomorrow because of a government statistic. I don't know if they gap it up 300 tomorrow because of government statistic. All I know is even if they gap it up, it would not change the main. trend and at the close of business today it's looking more and more and more like the last

little move off the lows was just what we told you a counter trend rally to relieve the very very very stretched extended and oversold conditions of price and that's it and what the market is doing is in the recognition that holy crap Target by the way go to Target you got some great deals now

Target this well managed company had to take margins down from nine to five to two three weeks later and the stock's gone from two 555 to 155 Walmart

and if it happens to these behemoths that have such great leverage on their business because they're able to buy so much more than others and negotiate better. If they couldn't manage it, what do you think everybody else? And then the next,

and today was Intel. And who knows what's next? My take, and so far has been correct, that all these great companies have started accounting. for a couple of things. Number one, they can't plan. All these companies delivering all kinds of stuff.

They can't plan. You see what the price of diesel is for their trucks? Airlines? It's their number one expense. Cruise lines at New Yearly lows, by the way. And number two, they got to count for the higher costs. in their profit column. Not only that,

but the part of consumers. I can safely tell you, from my COVID-laden desk right here, I've been doing my own little channel checks. There's a consumer slowdown going on, which means all this inventory is going to get tougher to move, which means all this inventory gets lower in price, good for you guys, but means profits are much lower than expected,

and what does the market do to that? Marks it down, and that's the process we're in. And this is coming from me, the optimist, but I'm a realist, and we have a keen eye here for the roadmap. And man, oh man, that 555 on the transports yesterday, that was a hell of a sore thumb. And I don't think it's my accident the next day. Little yonking into the close.

Before the most breathlessly awaited inflation number in history, which is Tamar. But I repeat, inflation number from the government, what do I give a crap about that? Just pass a gas station or fill up at the gas station. You're also getting shrinkflation. your toilet paper go take a look there's probably 25% in the roll for the same price Doritos they took five chips out you don't think they count this stuff for the same price

and it's really everything I haven't been able to go to the store because of COVID in nine days but soon as I'm over this I will but I can tell you price has been relentless And you know that. And then the other side, the wealth effect. Estimates of 25 to 30 trillion of wealth globally has evaporated with the markets. So quite the one, two, three, four punch. And we just hope you've been listening. As we have told you forever, we separate ourselves in bare markets.

Bull markets, oh, everybody bullish. Yeah, yeah, yeah. in bare markets everybody else stays bullish there's a select few but wall street is a fully invested vehicle they will never sell they're always and they at least they tell you and by the way this is not an indictment of them there's a hundred years of history the market was just at all-time highs but i got news for you 22% of the nasdaq's down 75% or more 6% is down 90% or more 50% of the nasdaq is down 50% of or more. Mainstays like Netflix down in the 70s. That doesn't help. Up next, I will wind it up. I'll complain about something. This is the one only investors edge.

Struggling to see up close, make it visible with Viz. Viz is a once daily prescription eye drop to treat blurry near vision for up to 10 hours. The most common side effects that may be experienced while using Viz include eye irritation, temporary dim or dark vision, headaches and eye redness. Talk to an eye doctor to learn if Viz is right for you. Learn more at Viz.com. Under U.S. debt, ongoing geopolitical tensions, and constant market swings, many people are rethinking how to protect their savings. Physical gold and silver have been used for generations during uncertain times to diversify, not replace traditional investments.

Preserve gold helps Americans understand these options. Text IHeart to 50505 to get your free wealth protection guide and explore how precious metals may fit into your retirement planning. Online reviews say I'm steep, rocky, and a difficult trail. Next time I'm going to say, not if you're driving a Toyota truck. We know what we're made of, Toyota Trucks. You're listening to. What are we waiting for?

Well, what are you waiting for? One, two, ready, go. Action! In the Gester's Hitch. With Gary Culper. By the way, here is the next problem. Janet Yellen right now is speaking and saying, I don't think we're going into recession. She couldn't be a bigger moron.

A, she's zero for a hundred with her predictions. You keep predicting? We're going into recession. It's a gar-and-dam T. They have better stats than I do. So she's either lying or just a moron. Savings rates are plunging. credit card usage is skyrocketing what else do you need you know what she says oh but jobs are still good

here's the other moron part of her everyone knows that jobs is the most lagging of indicators in an economy it's always the last the crack so she's either lying for this administration or man oh man you couldn't be this stupid. And I got news for you. You know what the definition of a recession is? When you lose your job. And you know what my worry is about a recession? It's going to be a doozy.

Because these people have no ammo, have no game, have no understanding of markets from the president on down. The president went on Jimmy Kimmel last night. I didn't watch it yet. I taped it, but I watched some outtakes. you remember how they said Trump lied for four years? I said he lied a lot. I think Joe Biden wrote the book.

He spent his time with Jimmy Kimball just lying. And of course, Jimmy Kimmel, what is he going to do? Yay, give me a hand. He spent his whole time lying. I lowered the deficit. No, you didn't. it came from COVID when you spend

an extra $2 trillion on COVID and now you're not oh guess what said it's an anomaly it's an outlier it's a lie he said he dropped childhood poverty in half it's a lie

you know what it's based on oh he sent a check and now the average so-and-so is getting a little above poverty You don't freaking change the trajectory of a child in poverty with a check. You do with education and mentorship and good parentage and leadership skills and teaching computer skills and how to talk in front of people and all the great attributes a check.

What an ass! The president's our opponent. because while we're working our tail off to do everything we can for kids in the community, he's lying about taking children out of poverty. Man, oh man. And they call Trump a liar every day. That pisses me off. Okay, Serenity now.

Let me repeat. I have no clue about tomorrow. I do not know what the number is going to be on the most breathlessly awaited inflation report. Maybe it's better than expected and the administration's just BSing and trying to set up a rally. Who to hell knows? I don't know. If we do, it's not going to change the playing field of the big picture. Of course, if we sell off, wouldn't be surprised. And I have to add in a little bit now, Europe looks like it's rolling over. Europe.

Remember what we said yesterday about China emerging? And if there's anything trying to put in the bare market bottom, it's China. But if we roll over, they're going to bring that down. Oh, they took China down today. Still above the lows, though. Much above the lows. So I got nothing redeeming to say on the market. Yesterday, they topped out the shippers.

and they hit them again today. Oil stocks were down today, but they need to have some days down. Commodities were rolled and just an overall gross day in the market with a terrible close. Now, I also know everybody's talking sentiment and bearish this, bearish that.

We don't care. We've studied sentiment. They have not. sentiment is different from bull market to bear market. In bull markets, when everybody gets bearish on corrections, it stops the bleeding and you're off to the races again. In bare markets, it stops the bleeding, it turns into counter-trend rallies before.

Guess what happens? Another leg down ensues. So a little too much of that talk. And again, fundamentally, everything I've told you is fact. fundamentals are not great and you now have a central banker who I don't even I can't even come up with an analogy to laugh at but he's kicking and screaming and being dragged to do what he's doing right now because his modus operandi since Christmas of 18 market goes down easier money market really goes really goes down print more money and he just went nuclear. And we warned you that day. So any questions?

Email me at garyk.com. If you want to be part of our webcast that we're doing nightly right now, go to garyk.com, press on Convictionleaders.com. You get one month because we're nice with no obligation. So until tomorrow in that breathless report, I'll be on with Cavuto between noon and two on Fox Business. And when you get home, do like we will do after I'm over the COVID. Make sure you hug your family.

Make sure you hug your children. They will feel better. You will feel better. As always, thanks for joining us. Really appreciate you would listen to anything we have to say. Bye, bye all. This has been Investor's Edge with Gary Cultbaum on BizTalk. To listen to past episodes or to get in contact with

Gary, go to GaryK.com. That's GaryK.com. With the power and endurance of Toyota trucks, you can go to the most incredible places, like this valley where the echo does different voices. Hello! We know what we're made of, Toyota Trucks. This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit. less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you

one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply. Lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details.