Investor's Edge with Gary Kaltbaum - UH OH WEEK IN REVIEW

Episode Date: September 15, 2023

garyK.com or https://garykaltbaum.com/Considered one of the finest radio shows on the markets, the business world and everything that affects them, Investor’s Edge with Gary Kaltbaum, a Fox News Channel Business Contributor, brings his in-depth take every day. If you want fluff, this is not the place. Gary is a hard hitting and pull-no-punches host especially when it comes to people in power affecting you and your money. His daily in-depth analysis on the markets is second to none.

This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet?

Terms apply. Lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for detail. Investor's Edge with Gary Coltbaum. Straight talk about you and your money. Now from the Biz Talk Studios, here is Gary Cultbaum. And welcome once again to Investors Edge. I'm Gary Coltbaum, your host.

A thanks for being with us today. Glad you here, ladies and gentlemen. Happy that you are listening. It is Friday. It's the 15th of September, and I'm so happy it's Friday. I've had jet lag all week. I need to relax. sleep, take it easy. I think I'm still on Dubai time. I think we're good though. Thanks for being

with us today. Ladies and gentlemen, I want to start off a little bit differently today. You see, for the last 25 years, our government has changed the formula on inflation and GDP. They changed the formula on GDP to make it higher than it used to be. They changed the formula on inflation to make it lower than it used to be. Why would they do that? But we're getting all kinds of statistics out of the government now, how inflation, and basically what inflation is, how much you're paying for stuff, simplifying it.

How much are you paying for stuff? When I go to Starbucks now and get a triple espresso and a breakfast sandwich, I used to pay seven, it's now eight and a half, depending on what city. Inflation. You go to the store and buy some toilet paper. Whatever you bought used to be, 875, it's now 990. Inflation, you are paying more for the same product. Then there's something called shrinkflation.

What's that? Well, you're buying a bag of chips and paying the same price, but there's less chips in the bag or the bag is smaller. And that's exactly what is going on with the chips. I want to bring this up because we are being told now, inflation is under control. Does any of you, the peeps, believe inflation is under control? In case you don't know, I go to Publix with my wife here in Florida.

I see what the prices are. Of course they've come down some, but they're still way elevated from where they were a couple of years back. So this week, you have Paul Krugman, another just a political hack. He's a Nobel economist, New York Times, and he's a hack. What do we mean by hacks? Well, if it's a Republican administration, the world is ending. If it's a Democratic administration, the world is just fine. When we had inflation at nine, it was no biggie.

Now he's telling us we're in Goldilocks. and I just want to give you the real. And I think you already know. But here's some of the real. Numero uno. Oil prices is now above 90. They were 68. Two months ago.

Three months ago. Now remember, when prices originally went up, it was the Putin price hike, according to some misinstration. When prices went down again, it was because of Joe Biden and his Inflation Reduction Act. Now they're back up to 90 and it's crickets. So when you go to the gas station, how much more are you paying today than a few months ago? A bunch.

And it's going to get worse in the next week or two in case you did not know. Don't mean to harsh your buzz. We deal in facts here. In fact, oil prices in the last three weeks up 15%. So you're going to start feeling that. But don't worry, there's no inflation. It's much lower, even though cocoa prices have now hit the highest price in 44 years. But don't worry, you don't buy anything that involves cocoa.

Cattle futures, all-time highs. But you don't eat meat. Sugar is in a 12-year high, but you don't buy anything that sugar's in. The Commodity Research Bureau Commodities Index of 19 commodities is now at a yearly high. But don't worry, it's just 19 commodities. So we're just letting you know the political hacks are full of big, smelly, smoky,

dirty crap in order to try and convince you, everything's just fine because we're heading into an election year. But it's not fine. So again, we're not here to harsh your buzz. We're here to deal in reality because I wish I was on satellite right now. I'd like to use the words I'd like to use.

Let's just call them bull crap artists. And they'll look at you straight in the face and lie. You know, I've lowered the deficit $1.7 trillion. Lie. I've cut child poverty in half. Lie. The list goes on and on. Now, why is this happening?

Well, there's a couple of reasons. Numeruono. We've lost the control. What do we mean by that? Well, perception is important when it comes to energy prices. Perception. If the perception is, we as a country, the United States of America, that have billions of barrels of oil in the Permian Basin,

in West Texas, what is it, Southern New Mexico, some like that, if the perception was that we are going to drill like a mother, which would increase supply, investors, speculators, and traders would sell the hell out of oil, lowering it down. But the perception is they're insane in D.C. By making us believe we're going 100% green when that is a sheer impossibility and another one of their lies. So what OPEC has done, they've seen a little light at the end of the tunnel to take advantage of it by, guess what they're doing? Cutting production. Simple as that.

cut production, stay down, forces price up, economics 101, and they're getting the job done. They're happy while we're sitting there picking our nose. Now we're still drilling, we're still producing oil, decent amounts, but perception. Verbage, rhetoric is so stupid out of D.C. right now, I can't begin to tell you. If I was president today, I'd have oil prices down 20 bucks with one paragraph and one move. But no, got to go green. Got to go green. So just letting you know, if you're reading this and then you're going to the story,

door and you're frustrated as all hell, you've heard it from me. As my nanny-annie used to say, the Emmis. And happy Russia Shana to all who celebrate as we get into Yom Kippur, as I harsh your buzz. Today on this, the one and only, Investor's Edge. Now, I have a little more harshing of the buzz today, unfortunately. Those who have listened to this very important show from many a moon know there are certain areas of the markets of the market that really matter a lot and have really helped us throughout the years. As you know, we have skated through bare markets, been out of them for the most parts. We have guided you out of them.

We have guided you out of bare market areas. There have been times where the market's strong, but it's. sectors of 15 sectors were bearish and we would come on this show and say to you avoid we would avoid no we would avoid no we would avoid until something changes and of course the number one area that we worry about is the semiconductors number two is the financials as we have stated to you financials used to be number one up next what the heck happened to the semis today That's the one only Investors Edge. Hi, I'm Gary Kalbaum, hosted a nationally syndicated radio show Investors Edge.

We're not just handsome radio people. We manage investors' money for a living, specializing in fee-based discretionary money management. No big commissions, just a fee on the assets that's managed. We also provide a full range of personalized services, including retirement planning, fixed income, and educational needs, all to assist you in achieving your financial goals. understanding not all individuals have the same needs,

we'll carefully evaluate your personal goals to determine a proper investment strategy. If your current approach to investing is not getting you to where you would like to be, call us to make an appointment for a complementary portfolio review. The number to call is 888-4-2-5-59. That's 8-8-5-5-9. That's 888-4-22-55-9. investment advisory services offered through Colbomb Capital Management. This message is brought to you by the Capital One VentureX card.

Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card, What's in your wallet? Terms apply. Lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details. This episode is brought to you by Spreaker. The platform responsible for a rapidly spreading condition known as podcast brain.

Symptoms include buying microphones you don't need, explaining RSS feeds to confused relatives, and saying things like, sorry, I can't talk right now, I'm editing audio. If this sounds familiar, you're probably already a podcaster. The good news is Spreaker makes the whole process simple. You record your show, Upload it once, and Spreaker distributes it everywhere people listen. Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and about a dozen apps your cousin swears are the next big thing. Even better, Spreaker helps you monetize your show with ads, meaning your podcast might someday pay for, well, more microphones. Start your show today at spreeker.com. Sprinker, because if you're going to talk to yourself for an hour, you might as well publish it.

It's time to switch on the integrator units and get the brain cells working. You're listening to. Hey, this promises to be fun. Investors Edge. The last bastion of quality programming. With Gary Coltbaum. It doesn't get better than this. And what once again to Investors Edge?

So, the semiconductors. We've been scratching our head a little bit. That there have been some semiconductor names that have gone skyward, even though they've had terrible earnings in revenue, growth. Terrible. Lamb research, down 30, down 30. How's it going up? Oh, artificial intelligence. That's the big buzzword. Everything's artificial intelligence. Terrific. Every company's mentioning it, trying to goose their stocks. We've seen it before. So anyway, recently, we have noted that the semiconductors have been under pressure. What do we mean by that? Well, number one,

off the highs. Volume is heavy when it goes down, volume is light when it goes up, breaking the 50-day moving average as a whole. That's the semiconductor index. But when we scan and we have about 75 names that we constantly scan, there's only a few that have strength. But they're the bigger names so they really hold up the index better than it really is until today. So Taiwan Semiconductor came out today and told their suppliers to delay delivery of high-end chip-making equipment as they are now worried about customer demand. Uh-oh. Now, what have we already told you here? We're worried about the consumer.

We think Apple is worried about the consumer. Well, the semiconductors, the socks was down 108 today. We've seen that before, but there are certain names that I kind of sort of worry about more than others. And three names that had held up pretty well. They're in what is known as the semiconductor equipment group, equipment makers. Applied materials. Well, that was down six today, six and change to 138. on more than double average volume,

easily breaking support and the 50-day moving average. Lamb Research was down $33 today to $623 on more 160% more volume than normal, handily breaking the 50-day moving average. KLA 10-Core, they call it KLA now, down $26 to $454 on 176% in volume. handily breaking the 50-day moving average, that's not good news. Because I have to add also that NVIDIA. Remember what's happened to NVIDIA recently.

They announced a 429% growth in earnings and 101% growth in sales. But on that, the stock has not acted well, and we just posed the question. And it's been written about double ordering, panic ordering. that companies are saying, oh, we ordered a ton of stuff because of AI and we want to get ahead of things. And Vidiya broke the 50 day today. Kind of handling. Down 17 bucks.

So we're just letting you know that's sticking out like a sore thumb. Now, I can mention other names like Excelis Technology, Equipment Maker, ACLS, down 11 today to 167 on four times average volume. I can mention NXP Semiconductor down 5 to 197 today. I can mention ASM hell, down 25 today to 596. Another equipment guy that broke the 50-day weeks ago, broke the long-term 200 day, about six days ago, and got trashed again today in the group. And these are names that have held up best.

So we're just letting you know that's not good news. Let us also add today and of note. So we have been saying to, hey, just letting you know some of these mega cap tech, they bounced above the 50 day moving average and they're starting to move. They got a hold. Facebook down 11, Microsoft down 8 and change. You got me? and on top of that Adobe today closed down if I can find it

Adobe down 23 bucks today on their earnings report that follows oracles gaping down on their earnings report that follows Apple that's basically Tost Rica right now and losing relative strength that follows Salesforce dot com breaking the 50 day moving average today that follows Netflix that cratered this week. I mean, Netflix really cratered this week on some stuff the CEO said. And then today also, they started selling off a bunch of the software stocks.

So I wish I had better stuff to tell you here. What I will tell you is at the close today, the NASDAQ, that rallied up into the 50-day, just not trash today on very heavy volume. Same for the NASDAQ 100 and just about everything around that joint. It was already weak. The semis, they got weaker and on some news. We would just heed that warning. That's all.

Don't know where it's going to take us from here, but today was icky. Pretty icky. in that arena. And I've yet to do my major league scans, but I can tell you it was unhealthy. Today's market wrap brought to you by, Investment-Dashmodels.com.

That's Jim Rohrabak, one of the great market timers. No gray areas with the man you're either in or out of the market. It was proprietary indicators. Go check it out. Investment-dashmodels.com. Dow down 288 after being up 300 yesterday. What's with that? What is the market on Xanax?

The S&P down 54, NASDAQ 217, NASDAQ 100, 271. Transports were only down 29, no biggie. Advanced declines, 1226 on the New York, 1427 on the NASDAQ. And as usual, much more new yearly lows than new yearly highs on the market, even when the markets had up days. Kind of weird. Secondary technology stocks, not the mega caps. Very rough going.

Very rough going. And they've been laboring big time versus the big guys for quite a while. All you've got to do is look at the Russell 2000. So wish we had better things to tell you on a Friday, but we deal in reality here. We start with the inflation. We talk the semis and tech. Next up, got to talk about the yields. got to talk about trying to get a mortgage.

That's up next. And whatever else, I'm Gary. This is the one only investor's edge. This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination.

nation. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply. Lounge access is subject to change. See Capital1.com for details. This episode is brought to you by Sprecker. The platform responsible for a rapidly spreading condition known as podcast brain. Symptoms include buying microphones you don't need, explaining RSS feeds to confused relatives, and saying things like, sorry, I can't talk right now, I'm editing audio. If this sounds familiar, you're probably already a podcaster. The good news is, Sprinker makes the whole process simple.

You record your show, upload it once, and Spreaker distributes it everywhere people listen, Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and about a dozen apps your cousins swears are the next big thing. Even better, Spreaker helps you monetize your show with ads, meaning your podcast might someday pay for, well, more microphones. Start your show today at spreeker.com. Spreaker, because if you're going to talk to yourself for an hour,

you might as well publish it. This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card.

What's in your wallet? Terms apply. Lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details. We're listening to America is talking. Investors Edge. He's got to be pleased with that.

The crowd is just on his feet here. He's a Cinderella boy. With Gary Colbomb. It comes highly recommended. You're going to feel better if you talk to him. And welcome once again to Investors Edge. So I've been emailed about what I thought about the strike with the UAW and Ford GM and Stalantis, which is, I think it's Fiat Chrysler.

Well, a couple of things. We think that the UAW, United Auto Workers, are banging in their chest more because they have the president. Every time the president talks to the economy, talks about the unions and how they're the greatest, and that's all well and good. So they are now demanding, asking, whatever word you want to use,

a major increase in pay while cutting the five-day week to four-day week, which, by the way, will never happen. Zero chance of that happening, and the UAW knows it. So why they'd even throw that in there is beyond me. So without getting into it on who's right or who's wrong. And the UAW also noticed that the, I think UPS, what are they going to pay like 170 some odd thousand bucks for drivers? American Airlines raised the, you know, whatever, I think for the pilots. The ports in the West Coast, the dock workers got a big bump.

So they're thinking, hey, what about us? The worry. And let me just quote, The head of Ford today said If we had to pay what they want us to pay And do what they want us to do We'd have to file bankruptcy eventually The head of the UAW comes out and says

If they paid us and did what they want them to do They'd still be making billions of dollars So they're very far apart What are the repercussions In case you don't know I believe in 19 it was everybody striking Now it's just 13 of like 140,000, but it could go into more. The issue is two words, and that's the domino effect.

What it affects somebody else? What if you stop a supply chain here, what happens over there? They haven't touched the engine parts yet. If they touch the engine parts supply, then look out. It's to be watched. It really does matter. It's a huge business. It's already touch and go.

The other big problem is you have these companies trying to go towards the green. I think Ford took out like a $6 billion something or other from the government to for electric vehicles to try and convert, which is also insanity. What if people don't want to buy electric vehicles? They ever think of that? No, because we have a Marxist government. Up yours. You want a gas vehicle? yours. We'll tell you what to do. Screw you. Well, we'll see how it plays out. Do I think that has

anything to do with anything right now? No, I do not. But it's out there. The 10-year yield hit 4.322 today, up 0.34. If it breaks through. I'm going to give you the approximates. 4.36, which is recent high. but the old 15-year high was 4.3. Let's just say if we go through 4-4, that would be a monumental breakout to the upside on the 10-year yield, while inflationary wins are atturning. And we're hearing that the Fed is no way going to raise rates next week. They supposedly have telegraphed already.

But we keep being told in order to fight inflation, you got to raise rates. We'll see. Let's hope the 10-year yield doesn't do the job for the Fed. What do I mean? If the 10-year yield, I'm letting you know what I think, starts heading towards 4.5 or 5, That's not going to be good news. That'll be the market, the real market, not somebody's opinion, but the real market's opinion of what's going on. And that could be a problem.

We already have major distortions in housing. This inventory is about as low as it can be. Who wants to sell a 3% mortgage and get in a 7.5% mortgage? That's what's going on. So stay tuned. There's a lot of cross currents going on and not so great stuff. The credit card usage records. Mout of credit cards, records. Interest rate on credit cards skyrocketed. Savings rates have plunged. Though they're ticking up a little bit here. What's the good news? Savers are making 5% on their money when they were making 0% two years ago because of the moron running the Fed. Hey, I'm God, I'm taking rates down to zero percent. You savers go screw yourself. Well, look how that's changed.

So stay tuned. We've also said to you we thought there was a day of reckoning on all the debt and deficits. We are letting you know. We think the market will know when that day of reckoning comes and we'll let you know. Housing stocks topped out and they're getting worse. Housing related stocks topped out getting worse. Today, they slammed Home Depot and Lowe's. Broke them down but good.

Sherwin Williams, breaking that down good. The cement stocks, breaking that down good. Am I thrilled yet? Housing, other housing related, they're coming after. Construction types, simple BLDR, Builders First Source, breaking down. The mobile recreational vehicles breaking down. Just letting you know.

And remember, we're not giving you opinions. We're telling you what the market's doing. Your assumption should be, we know what the heck we're talking about, and we know what bull and bare markets look like. That should be a good assumption by now if you've been listening to this show for quite a while. Now, the next part of the equation. California, I.A.

Just have to mention again, I think I mentioned to you this week one time, but I got to do it again. California's unemployment rate has gone from 3-8 to 4-6. We'll see what that means. I have said to Neil Cavuto about 100 times this year,

we better not lose the job market. Why would I say that? Well, if the consumer's already spent up and people start losing their jobs and have to go on unemployment, which, by the way, pays a lot less than what people make, guess what happens? So stay tuned. Do not blame us. We don't cause any of this. We report everything, good or bad.

but don't worry Bidenomics will save us 2 trillion deficit this year is going to save us I watch one of his economic guys on TV today wanted to kick the TV in look what we're doing they're spending 2 trillion more than they're taken in

they should be in jail no really they should be in jail by the way that's not on you that's on your kids that's on their kids and they're still doing nothing about Social Security. They're still doing nothing about Medicare.

And they know it's going to run out, but they know also they'll be either retired or dead. So they don't have to worry right now. And last but not least what's going on, did you see what's in New York City? People are yelling and screaming at AOC and partners. They're pissed off. Sanctuary City.

They didn't expect the numbers, to come in and take over city streets and blocks and hotels. It's turning, kids. Up next, we'll wind up the week. This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase,

bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply, lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details. This episode is brought to you by Spreaker. The platform responsible for a rapidly spreading condition known as podcast brain.

Symptoms include buying microphones you don't need, explaining RSS feeds to confused relatives, and saying things like, sorry, I can't talk right now, I'm editing audio. If this sounds familiar, your performance. probably already a podcaster. The good news is, Spreaker makes the whole process simple. You record your show, upload it once, and Spreaker distributes it everywhere people listen. Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and about a dozen apps your cousins swears are the next big thing. Even better, Spreaker helps you monetize your show with ads, meaning your podcast might

someday pay for, well, more microphones. Start your show today at spreeker.com. Spreaker, because if you're going to talk to yourself for an hour, you might as well you're listening to what are we waiting for what you're waiting for one two ready

go action try with Gary Culpba and just remember what we've told you ladies and gentlemen immigration is simple you know how you fix it you become Mexico

try getting into Mexico across the border I want any of you to try to do that and see what Mexico does. Try getting into Canada. Now go ahead. Go ahead. Now, I'm a big believer in come one, come all.

We're a country of immigrants. But you know what? I heard somebody yelling at AOC today on TV? What do I tell my cousins that for seven years have been trying to come here legally? What a great point. By the way, they were screaming her down. enough of her. It's so simple. Try getting into Mexico. Try getting into Canada. Go up to, you know, Niagara Falls and try to get through. Just sneak through. See what happens to you. Try to go to Mexico.

Here's what I want you to do. Go to San Diego and go to Tijuana. Go ahead. Try to sneak in. See what happens to you. That's all. It's simple. And I'd like to think, you want to take a step back and think, what's the game plan of these people? What is their game plan to allow this? What's the goal? Because they're now pissing off a lot of people that voted for them. Do they not know?

Yeah, I guess maybe they are that stupid. Then again, they were able to get elected president of the United States. Can they be that stupid? Or do they get omnipotent, feel like they can do nothing wrong once they win? Don't know. On the other end, I spent five minutes watching Trump do another interview. For those of you who love him, he's doing interviews and pretty much admitting his crimes. You all need to tell him to shut the hell up.

He did an interview with Megan Kelly. He's pretty much admitting some of his crimes. And I had to shut it off. I think it was about seven minutes because he just started lying. He's an habitual liar, just like Biden, habitual. Had to turn it off. And let me finish up on the D.C. front. I said this to you six months ago.

I said it to you three months ago. I'm going to say it to you again. I give it a 95% chance. It ain't going to be Biden. They're forcing them out already. Just so you know, in D.C., nothing happens by accident. It's all on purpose. The Washington Post and the New York Times now have two of the most important op-ed people

write that they should be out. And Kamala Harris. That's another huge mistake. They should have Val Demings in. Wonderful woman here in Orlando, Florida. I don't know why they picked Kamala Harris. Just absolute no talent. That's my prediction.

And I think it'll be sooner rather than later. Watch. Don't know how it's going to play out, but they'll give him a runway to get out. And then they're going to bring in the Marxist Gavin Newsom from California. Another nightmare. Lord have mercy. So now that I've harshed your buzz, sorry, the good news is I'm reading here, Dave Chappelle's going to be in Orlando, November 2nd, I'm going to go see him, because we need some laughs.

He's pretty funny. And that's kind of sort of the markets, the news of the day. The other depressing thing is last night, I didn't play D'Andre Swift in Philadelphia, and he had a touchdown. and 175 yards. Now my fantasy league, which is 0-1 and not a good start this week. Oh, well, I'm harsh in my own buzz. We're told the next two weeks in September are usually not good. We're also told sell Russia Shana by Yom Kippur.

I think Yom Kippur is Monday. I got to double check. I don't even know what day it is. I'm still on Dubai time. I don't pay attention to any of it. All I can tell you, the most important area of the market is gagging here. And the market will not be able to stand more. Remember, strong day yesterday.

I wasn't so impressed. Yom Kippur, 2003 is, why isn't giving me the date? September 17th. September 24th. Yom Kippur, September 24th. Got it. And of course, the big guy's birthday, October 1st coming up soon. I can't believe how old I am.

Walter Isaacson just wrote a book on Elon Musk. One of the greatest business books ever he wrote on Steve Jobs many years ago. Just letting you know I'm getting his book also. You may want to get it. Musk, one of the weirdest dudes on Earth, but one of the most creative dudes on Earth. Forget Tesla. SpaceX is a... amazing. What he's done with that? Amazing. And I know he's got a few other things up his sleeve.

Monday, I'll be on with Charles Payne 2 p.m. This weekend, I'll be sleeping. Right now, you have a great evening and drive carefully. And again, we're just providing facts for you kids, just providing facts. And on this weekend, drive carefully. Make sure you hug your family. Make sure you hug your children. they'll feel better, you'll feel better, I promise. Peace out all. Bye-bye. This has been Investors' Edge with Gary Cult Bomb on BizTalk. To listen to past episodes or to get in contact with Gary, go to GaryK.com.

That's GaryK.com.