Investor's Edge with Gary Kaltbaum - Under the hood...terrible
Episode Date: October 2, 2023https://garykaltbaum.com/...
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Investor's Edge with Gary Coltbaum.
Straight talk about you and your money.
Now from the BizTalk Studios, here is Gary Cultbaum.
And welcome once again to Investors Edge.
I'm Gary Colpom, your host.
A thanks of being with us today.
Glad you're here, ladies and gentlemen.
Happy that you are listening.
It's October 2nd, I believe.
Right.
2000 and 23
it's a Monday
hope you're having a good day
we have lots to talk about
as always we hope you're listening
we don't mess around here
we're dead serious about what we talk about
especially when there's trials and tribulations
hope you had a good weekend
flew back from New York
yesterday all went well
thank you Delta no issues
whatsoever
and we're back in Florida and we're watching over the dad and I think we're probably
my wife's going to go back there tomorrow take care of them 92 years old October 20th
got to do what you got to do kids anyway I never script the show I never have notes
but I always know what I want to talk about and there are days where we know we do we do
politics and money here, money in politics, markets in politics, politics and markets because
they're interfering in ways unimaginable. They're not criminal acts per se, but we should call them
criminal acts, but that's not what we want to do today. We want to get serious about you and
your money because we're worried. We're worried. And something happened today that looks positive
that makes us more worried?
No, really.
Let me explain.
Today, and I'm going to throw some numbers out to you,
today, on the NASDAQ,
we have something called advances versus decliners.
And you know we've done this little exercise with you many times.
you know a little 100 stock exercise
and what is that exercise
well if there are only 100 stocks in the market
and 90 of them
are going down
and are in bad downtrends
but 10 of them are going up
or holding up
but those 10 have the influence
of those 90
what how can that be
Well, that's how it works in the markets.
Certain stocks of size have different influence over markets.
So let's say those 10 are up 20%, and the 90 are down 10%.
Well, the index is going to be up.
But is that healthy?
You see, quite often, and we've had this happen many times here,
We've done them for you in real time.
Quite often, that is a real bad signal.
That money is running away from the market but has to park somewhere.
And what do we mean by that?
In case you don't know, mutual funds have to be, not all, but have to be invested.
and almost fully invested.
So what happens is
if most of the market's gone to crap,
they have to find a place to put the money.
And typically what it usually happens
is they will park it in the most liquid biggest,
quote-unquote dependable names out there.
We'll see it where the Dow holds up better than
the NASDAQ or the beta, the high beta.
We'll see it where we, what have we seen in droves for a while?
The mega cap tech.
As we have told you, Apple 15.6 billion shares outstanding.
You can easily get in and easily get out.
And the company's been pretty darn dependable, would you say?
though, as you know, we've had issues with it and valuation.
Today, the advanced declines on the NASDAQ,
and they actually improved in the last 15 minutes,
as they kind of pumped up a few names.
Get this. Today, 1237 stocks were up, 29006 down.
We have seen advanced decline days like that where the NASDAQ was down 300.
Squashed.
The NASDAQ finished up 88 today.
NASDAQ 100 finished up 122.
By the way, it was up 145 the NASDAQ in the morning.
And then it was negative towards the end of the day until they popped it back into the close.
In fact, it was at a low at 310.
pretty much of the day but I want you to think about this a horrible
advance decline day on the NASDAQ and the NASDAQ was still up 88 NASDAQ
100 up 122 why well what have we told you here about and it's easy to look at
the NASDAQ 100 the NASDAQ 100 makeup I'm putting it up again I'm just
going through it
pretty simple. What did they do today? They sold off a ton of stuff and put it into the biggest
of big names. That's all they did today. And by the way, again today and in the very big way,
Apple was up two and a half bucks. And somehow another analyst came out to say that the new iPhone is
doing well, even though they're just guessing.
Microsoft was up six.
It's number two.
Facebook, six.
Nvidia, 13.
Somebody who had a buy recommendation changed it to a strong buy today.
Amazon up two, Google up three.
Tesla only up one, but was down 10 early.
They had bad deliveries, but still ended up one.
Adobe up nine.
Netflix up three.
That's been dead.
Huh.
So we're just stating the facts to you.
The facts of what they did with the NASDAQ today.
Now, the Dow was down 74.
S&P was flat.
The S&P 500 was flat.
You ready for this?
On the New York Stock Exchange,
717 stocks were up a whopping 3,277 were down.
We've seen Dow down 500 on days like today
But what they did
They parked the money
Or bought into
And propped into the clothes
The Mega Caps
Simple as that
And Dow names at the close
While leaving a ton of areas
Left for Dead
Now, what do I mean by that?
Well, I got to tell you, they're squashing some stuff.
They're squashing areas of the market.
Little bounce at the end of the day, but they're squashing areas of the market.
So we're just letting you know, today was one of the most accentuated days.
Today was one of the most accentuated days for these divergences.
It will need to change.
New yearly highs, hardly any.
New yearly lows, 740.
New yearly lows picked up.
Squash today were gold, silver.
They got the oils.
We warned you about the oils in the last week
that it was getting to be a mixed bag.
They squashed the commodities today.
They squashed transports.
They squashed regional banks and big banks.
They squashed economically sensitive names.
They squashed insurance names that were actually holding up.
They squashed the airlines.
They squashed the hotels.
They squashed the materials and the industrials.
They squashed the consumer staples.
How the hell did the indices?
How did the S&P finish flat?
They are putting the money to work into the biggies.
The Russell 2000 today, it's only 2,000 stocks.
was down the equivalent of 500 doubt points.
Up next, we'll continue along these lines.
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It's time to switch on the integrator units and get the brain cells working.
You're listening to.
Hey, this promises to be fun.
Investors Edge.
The last bastion of quality programming.
With Gary Coltbaum.
It doesn't get better than this.
So, the 100-stock example.
dance today. And just so you know, we keep Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, NVIDIA, Facebook, Tesla,
Google. Broadcom, we keep close also. By the way, Costco is 2%. We keep these all close and next to each
other. And we can tell you the top seven. Those are the seven that everybody's talking about.
Every one of them was up today. While the advanced declines on the NASDAQ, 12 up 29 down.
I'll give you the bad news and the good news.
The bad news is it's a fact what we just told you.
The good news is maybe it's getting now really obvious.
And in case you don't know, NASDAQ 100 I have it in front of me.
Those seven, you know how we talk about the 100 stock syndrome?
Those seven, the 100 stocks in the NASDAQ 100, are equal to 6, 9, 12, 16, 17,
22, 31, 41, 41, 43, 44% of the, so seven names are 44%, 93 names are 56%.
And by the way, they used to be above 50, but that got changed because they recognize,
ooh, a little bit too much.
Now get this, S&P 500 makeup, which is quite amazing too.
S&P 500 are you ready for this so there's 500 names you got this
Apple and Microsoft represent 13.5% of the S&P 500 two names are 13.5%
add in top those top seven and they are 13 16 17 20 22 24
6, 28.
The 28% of the S&P 500.
That's why the S&P was flat today.
I have my screen set up.
One of the screens, listen carefully,
is the semiconductors,
financials,
economically sensitive restaurants,
the staples,
food, drug, beverage, tobacco, household products,
insurance,
airlines, cruise lines, hotels,
casinos,
the whole train,
transports, the farm machineries, the waste management, the big biotech, the medical services,
equipment, things like that, housing, retail of all stripes, oils, defense, autos and auto dealers,
drugs, auto parts retail, the places where you get your blood taken, like lab core and stuff like that,
And I will tell you that screen today is about 90% red with some big red.
Now the semis, which were getting in trouble late, were down like 20, finished up 14.
They will participate with a mega cap tech move.
Now, we'll ask two questions.
Number one, what's the norm?
Well, the norm is eventually they get these.
What's the second question?
Can we get the opposite?
What's that? Can the rest of the market stop the nausea and start turning back up?
Well, there's two words. Anything's possible. It's the stock market. But then the next statement is not as of today.
As we said, with the S&P flat and the NASDAQ up 88 and the NASDAQ 100 up 122, the advanced declines on the NYSE today, 717 up 32,
77 down on the NASDAQ 1237 up 2906 down new highs hardly any new low 744 on the new
York and NASDAQ new relative lows in the financials the big banks new relatively lows in the
utilities new relative lows the the Russell 2000 take out those lows well let me just say
bad charts and what do we say to you on Friday most everything's in a downtrend and I got
to tell you they worsen the downtrend today in most everything
except for Amazon, Google, Facebook, Microsoft,
Nvidia, Tesla, Apple, Adobe, Netflix,
and a smattering of stuff.
So we're just going to let you know
we are going to avoid all the bearish areas,
which is a crap load of areas,
and we're going to stay focused on the areas
that are holding up great
and hopes that maybe they keep going.
I will tell you this.
the market will not be able to take too much more of
717 stocks up 3277 down on New York
1237 up on the NASDAQ 2906 down
and the S&PB flat and the NASDAQ NASDAQ 100 be strong
Gary third question
can these mega-cap techs keep going sure
you know what we think about valuation
and eventuality
technically what's happening in there I will
tell you this, I'll give you some positives. They may put in what we call dbs. We hate using that
type of terminology on this show, but yeah, double bottoms, where they undercut a low in August
and now back above. What's the problem? It's only a few names. What's the good news for the
indices? It's the ones that control. They dominate and control. They better keep
dominating and control, or the rest of the market better start catching up. And again, let me
repeat, the rest of the market worsened today. Stunningly so. Still didn't stop them from popping
the market into the close. Just so you know, at 315 today, 315, the Dow was down 33, 274, 160,
was down 235, and the NASDAQ did a round-tripper.
The NASDAQ was at 13-2-10.
It was actually down.
I want to get the numbers right.
Yeah.
And rallied up 97 points in the last 45 minutes.
And actually, in the last couple of minutes, just poof, poof, poof.
I will tell you the NASDAQ was 13263 at 355.
What up 44 points in four and a half minutes.
But that's not the point I wanted to make today.
The point I wanted to make today is, and we're going to show it on our webcast tonight,
you take out just the select few narrow names, and things are getting smoked.
And if you were one of those people that have one of these diversified in different areas
and a few stocks from here and a few stocks from there, you're getting rolled over.
the boring supposedly very defensive utilities are crashing up next what else thanks to being here
this is the one only investors edge guys it's no use putting it off the best time for an underwear
refresh is now Tommy John underwear is designed for a perfect fit that stays put all day
their zero chafe thanks to four times more stretch than competing brands and their innovative
horizontal quick draw fly is a game changer. With over 30 million pairs sold, there are thousands of
men out there more comfortable than you. Don't settle for less. Go to Tommyjohn.com today for 25% off
your first order with code comfort. That's Tommyjohn.com code comfort. Tommy John. Comfort perfected.
This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card. Venture X offers the premium
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Investors Edge.
He's got to be pleased with that.
The crowd is just on his feet here.
He's a Cinderella boy.
With Gary Colbomb.
It comes highly recommended.
You're going to feel better if you talk to him.
Okay.
Since we're staying with markets, just letting you know that the 10-year,
yield which we have talking we've been talking often about as the most important thing to watch
was up another 1.1 today from 4.6 let me get this right 4.573 to 4.683 that's not good news good news is
unless you own oil stocks oil drop two bucks today now oil stocks
We said to you in the last couple of weeks, just letting you know there's a bunch of oil stocks that act well.
But there's now a bunch that are breaking down, which makes it now a mixed bag, which gets us to believing that there's a chance here that the rest will come down.
That's what happened today.
oils got hit there are a bunch of names below the 50 day moving average which matters a bunch to us
some still holding up but then there's the exchange traded funds for the oil all finish below the
50 day moving average today just letting you know next for you gold bugs i don't know what's going
on i'm no fundamental guy when it comes to gold and i read stories about gold versus this country
in that country and miners this and minors that.
We're just pretty good at reading the tape.
Gold miners are now getting smoked but good.
The GDX was 36 and a quarter in April.
It's 26 today.
And every visit recently to the 50-day moving average,
in or about, has failed.
And it's just worsening by the day.
Gold prices.
Big topping out in the last five days.
Silver, same thing.
And what's going on?
The dollar.
Very strong.
And you can go look up.
If the dollar goes up, what does gold do?
And you can go read why.
But we're just letting you know, gold, terrible.
Terrible.
And again, I'm weirded out because when we had the highest inflation, we've been taught forever.
big inflation gold's going to go skyrocket it didn't so beats the heck out of us what's going on we just know
bullish or bearish i wanted to bring up something else which i haven't talked about a lot but we have
been telling you to avoid it for what about nine months they crashed the solar stocks
I would presume a crash on solar edge from 345 to 122.
That's a crash, right?
Or how about end phase going from 340 to 116?
That's a crash, right?
Even first solar, which had been strong, 232 to 156.
Why am I bringing this up?
Well, because they were telling us how much government was going to help
and you got to own solar stocks.
Do you remember that?
I don't hear them talking solar stocks anymore.
Just letting you know.
Next, I have to bring up analysts.
As you know, we're very careful here.
We don't take on anybody on Wall Street.
We believe it's a very tough business.
Many, many, many, many years ago,
we used to get P-Oed on that certain famous guy
that's on that other business network.
And we took him on a couple of times because whatever.
And we got a couple emails from people saying, why?
And I realize, so we don't take anybody on.
We don't mention anybody.
We don't do names.
The only reason why we have brought up Kathy Wood is because a ton of you have lost your,
you know what's in that fund.
And we get asked about it every day.
and somehow she ends up being interviewed like she's a guru when she's down 75.
Imagine a mutual fund down 75%.
And you're actually being asked to speak.
Think about that.
You're actually asked to give an opinion when you're down 75%.
Not on a stock.
On a diversified mutual fund.
So we bring her up.
But not to cram her.
I don't know her personally.
we did cram our on her prediction out loud of Bitcoin going to a million,
but we're very careful about that.
But every now and then I just have to bring up,
we think there are some very suspect things going on in the analyst community.
We mentioned recently about Apple.
Before anything even happened,
oh, the new iPhone is selling this good,
and they try to pop you the stock up to 180,
and immediately went back to 167.
Well, they had another analyst out today.
Put out a one liner.
Ooh, the lines are big.
Now, this is not me saying the lines are big
because I visit one Apple store.
This is an analyst that's supposed to analyze.
And the stock actually went up on what he said.
And then you add another analyst on NVIDIA,
and I've said to you arguably the number one important technology stock now.
and somebody already has a strong buy on Nvidia,
we're now going to make it a conviction buy, blah, blah, blah.
And we just have little problems with that.
And Nvidia was up 13 bucks today.
Terrific.
We're just letting you know that these mega caps,
we're just going to watch them closely for you.
Netflix just went from 485 to 380.
I just want to let you know.
And hit a high of 690 in 21.
Tesla hit a high of 414 in 21.
It's 251.
We'll just let you know.
You know why we're letting you know the analysts.
They'll just sit there and after a stock's
down a bazillion percent then come off of it. Watch your stocks. We think a couple of these
analysts moves in the last week, very suspect. We think they were juicing the stocks, trying
to get them up and to make a point. It pisses us off. We think it's wrong. We can tell when
they're trying to jam a stock. We really can. And it's irritating. We'll let, and we're not
going to mention names. It's cool. And of course, then they're the cells. We saw a couple of
downgrades today on stocks that were down 75%. One was Solar Edge that we just mentioned.
So our recommendation, watch your stocks. Watch your stocks. Watch your stocks. Watch your stocks.
Now, as far as these mega caps that had a good day today, I'm scanning them as I speak,
because I'm ambidextrous.
I possibly go higher.
Technically, they're better.
How do I say better?
Google holds the 50-day moving average.
We'll give it that.
It's not like it's going anywhere, but holds.
NVIDIA, just about back above.
It still needs some work.
And what's the other one that looks?
Oh, Facebook looks okay.
Ain't going anywhere just yet,
but looks nice, relaxed,
versus
ladies and gentlemen
Bank America
I don't know
near bare market lows
Bank America
They just broke down
Berkshire Hathaway
Warren Buffet
So stay tuned
This is getting quite interesting
Good finish at the close today
Help the indices out
Yields finish near the high of the day
May I state for the record
You don't want to see yields heading for five, and we're getting there.
Higher yields, bad.
Higher oil bad.
Oil down $2 today, good.
Yields up 1.1?
Bad.
Advanced declines today?
Terrible.
NASDAQ, NASDAQ 100?
Wow.
S&P flat.
With advanced declines, yuck.
And then the interest.
individual sectors, we're stunned how bad they are.
And we hope you've been listening because we've been telling you to avoid.
Up next, news of the day.
Oh, there's a bunch.
This is the one only investors edge.
Guys, it's no use putting it off.
The best time for an underwear refresh is now.
Tommy John underwear is designed for a perfect fit that stays put all day.
There's zero chafed thanks to four times more stretch than competing brands.
their innovative horizontal quick draw fly is a game changer.
With over 30 million pairs sold,
there are thousands of men out there more comfortable than you.
Don't settle for less.
Go to Tommyjohn.com today for 25% off your first order with Code Comfort.
That's Tommyjohn.com code comfort.
Tommy John.
Comfort perfected.
This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card.
Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect,
like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you accept.
Expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step
closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide.
The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply, lounge access is subject to
change. See Capital One.com for details. This episode is brought to you by Spreaker. The platform
responsible for a rapidly spreading condition known as podcast brain. Symptoms include
buying microphones you don't need, explaining RSS feeds,
to confused relatives, and saying things like,
sorry, I can't talk right now, I'm editing audio.
If this sounds familiar, you're probably already a podcaster.
The good news is Spreaker makes the whole process simple.
You record your show, upload it once,
and Spreaker distributes it everywhere people listen,
Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and about a dozen apps your cousin's swears are the next big thing.
Even better, Spreaker helps you monetize your show with ads,
meaning your podcast might someday pay for, well, more microphones.
Start your show today at spreeker.com.
Spreaker, because if you're going to talk to yourself for an hour, you might as well publish it.
You're listening to.
What are we waiting for?
Well, what are you waiting for?
One, two, ready, go.
Action!
In The Wester's Edge.
With Gary Culper.
Hey!
In the news.
Retail stores.
Wow.
3,200 retail stores across the U.S. are set to shut by the end of the year, with low inventory and crime being blamed for scaring off customers.
Thousands of big brands, CVS, Foot Locker, Target, Bed Bath & Beyond had their other thing going on.
Quite amazing.
896 Bed Bath and Beyond's going by the wayside.
But you know what I do here?
Toys are us.
They're going to open up some stores.
Yes, they are.
In the news, Tesla was up a buck today, was down much more, but they had the estimates for deliveries, missed pretty well.
So not only are they lowering prices, which is a margin squeeze, they're also missing estimates right now.
We'll see how that plays out.
In the news, and this is from a little bit ago.
The world's biggest crypto firm is melting down.
Just letting you know.
Binance and others.
Yippee, A.
In the news, the FTX Dufus, who's in jail still, good.
He paid Tom Brady $55 million over two years for 60 hours of work.
How much do you make an hour?
Do you make almost a million bucks an hour?
That's what he paid Tom Brady.
And I think Tom Brady's probably in some suit or lawsuit.
I think he is.
in the news.
Well, the doofus not have a clue,
national media is now reporting that a crisis was averted
because they did not shut down the government.
You know, we use certain pejorative words here,
but I'm not going to do that today.
I actually got mad at myself last week
because I used a certain part of the anatomy twice,
so we're not going to do that today.
So I'm just going to say they're duffices.
They actually said crisis was averted that government didn't shut down.
No talk of the debt crisis that we got going.
No talk of $33 trillion.
By the way, there are new estimates now
that in 10 years interest on the debt's going to be $2 trillion a year.
we're at one. So we're just letting you know the biggest crisis out there is a debt crisis. It's
not the global, the climate BS. Remember, that's just money grab. We can't change the weather.
Just letting you know. The only person that can do that is Superman. And last I looked, he's not real.
We can fight pollution. That'd be fine. But don't buy into that. Anyway, just letting you know,
they were out there in droves.
The media is laughable on this.
They're blaming this, that.
It doesn't matter.
We have a motto, they all suck,
which takes us to the next part of the equation.
Have you been watching the Republicans?
So in case you do not know,
I am a conservative fiscally.
Socially, I am about as moderate as can be.
I believe in live and live,
as long as you're within the rule of law.
A lot of these republicans,
only when it makes them happy, can you live and let live?
But if they don't like what you see, you get the point.
And you know the Marxist party, they're just out, forget them.
But I used to be part of the Republican Party.
And then a bunch of cons took over.
And I left years ago.
Did you watch this weekend?
You got a good feel for why I left them a long time ago.
The BS being said, just remember, these are just the least.
leadership, the leaders of the Republican Party, the ones that have been there for the last,
I don't know how many years, worse and worse and worse. And by the way, Donald Trump is not a
Republican. He's not conservative. Get rid of that in your mind. He's of his own religion.
And of course, he's got a civil fraud trial going on right now, and he's, it's funny as all hell.
Anyway, so you saw it in droves this weekend, that party.
I want Ronald Reagan for wake up from the dead and take over again and get some sanity into it.
And it's pretty simple, just so you know our thought process here on fiscally conservative.
We believe your taxes should be low.
We believe the government is not smarter than you to run your life.
we do believe there should be regulations
we do believe there should be government
you know how they come back and say you're trying to get rid of a government
but we believe in good efficient and effective government
if they fail they need to be replaced
like look what's going on
have you read the statistics on our kids
and math proficiency
that's government run
we believe in balanced budgets
and if you can't
you're fired very simple
this Marxist in the White House is running a $2 trillion deficit.
He should be impeached just for that.
Trump should have been impeached just for that.
Bush and Obama, same thing.
And we've got to get back to better.
Our government's a blob.
They're taken over everywhere.
Our lives.
The Federal Register of Rules and Regulations, go look up how many pages there are.
why don't you go look up how many pages there are in tax code as well as regulations from the tax code, which it means, oh, different cases, and ask yourself, why can't we just have a postcard to pay our taxes?
Do you know why? Because our government wants everything so freaking complicated and to be able to pay the lobbyists, to pay this lobbying, different, that and the other thing, and screw us.
Do you know the cost to file taxes by big companies, small companies, you and I, is bazillions.
Why can't it be, oh, you make 60 grand, this is your tax?
Nope.
You make 100 grand, this is your tax.
You make 200.
No, you know why they can't do that?
Because it's too easy.
I want to get back to a fair, efficient, effective government that's out of our way.
We're smarter than them.
Have you noticed these people in government?
George Santos is one of our Congress people.
You know where he should be?
Let's start with that.
Elizabeth Warren committed fraud.
You know where she should be?
So anyway, just explaining the weekend.
That all said, you'll have a great evening, drive carefully.
The Giants are playing tonight.
That's where I'll be.
And when you get home, do like we do.
Quite simple.
Make sure you hug your family.
Make sure you hug your children.
and they will feel better. You will feel better. Thanks for joining us. We'll be back tomorrow,
same time. Peace out, all. Take care. Bye-bye.
This has been Investors Edge with Gary Cult Bomb on BizTalk. To listen to past episodes
or to get in contact with Gary, go to GaryK.com. That's GaryK.com.
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