Investor's Edge with Gary Kaltbaum - Updownupdownup [09.09.2024]
Episode Date: September 9, 2024https://garykaltbaum.com/...
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straight talk about you and your money now from the biz talk studios here is gary cult bomb
and welcome once again to investors edge i'm gary coltbaum your host day thanks for being with us today
glad you here ladies and gentlemen happy that you are listening it's monday it's september 9th it's
2004. Hope you had a good weekend. I did not. My giants are like a high school football team.
That's how I measure my weekends during football season. And those of you are crazed football fanatics.
You know how it feels when your team stinks. But I digress. Again, hope you all at a good weekend.
we here in Central Florida continue to get the usual during the summertime and a little after.
Rain, rain, rain, rain, rain.
I love the rain, by the way.
I don't mind rain one bit.
Anyway, in case you don't know, this is serious talk on everything that affects you.
Everything that matters.
Your job, your industry, the economy, the markets, employment, deficits, debt, debates,
presidential elections as well as the rest of those elections, which, by the way, probably going to be a
little bit more important than the presidential election depending on who wins.
You know what I mean.
And if you do not get this radio show in your city, I'll post that at garyk.com.
We'll also post on our Twitter feed, which is now X.
If you don't follow us on Twitter, you probably should.
But you get to decide that.
Ladies and gentlemen, let me give you the numbers last week before I give you today's numbers, if you don't mind.
Last week, the Dow was down 1,217 points.
In four days, by the way.
2.93%.
By the way, we're getting right into markets.
We'll do the other stuff later.
The Dow holds up best.
the Dow is much stronger than the S&P
because of the S&P's makeup of a lot of the big tech that's weak
the S&P is stronger than the NASDAQ NASDAQ 100
by a good amount,
which is much stronger than the semiconductors
which have melted down.
All bounced today.
I must tell you,
I came in today agnostic.
I know after a 1,217 point drop in four days in the Dow, it could bounce.
A 240 point drop in the S&P, which by the way is 4.5%.
The Dow was only 2.9%.
A 1,023 point drop in the NASDAQ, which was down 5.77%,
1153%
1,153 point drop in the NASDAQ 100, 5.89%,
and the semiconductors, you ready, down 12.2% the semiconductors.
And you must admit, going into last week, we told you the semiconductors were the weakest
area as we rallied up.
and they led down.
So today we come in and it's not a big day for anything.
I didn't see any gargantuan news.
I didn't see anything that would drive things back and forth,
up and down and all around.
There were no earnings before the open today.
The Dow bounced 484 of the 1,217.
points last week. Pretty damn good move. The S&P bounced 62. By the way, 484 on 1217. Let's call that what?
40% of the drop. The S&P rallied 62 points today. Last week dropped 240. Let's call that only about 25% of the drop.
The NASDAQ was up 193 today.
It dropped 1,023 last week.
Let's call that.
Let's be generous, 19% of the drop.
The NASDAQ 100 was up 239, about the same.
And the semiconductors were up 97 points today.
That was only about 15.
percent, that's 16 percent of the drop last week in the semiconductors. I'm already getting all kinds of emails, and we thank you for them. What do you think? You think the worst is over. You think this, that, and the other thing. What do you think? What do you think's next? I got an answer for you that you're probably not going to be thrilled with. I really don't know. What I can tell you is that the market's been under pressure. What I
can tell you a lot of strong stocks went by the wayside what i can tell you the semiconductors a very
important group in the market very much leads up and down has been croaking but i also can tell you
the areas that of strength had another decent day today insurance the financials which gagged last
week. The financials which gagged last week, nice little bounce today. Our favorite names, Black Rock
up 16, J.P. Morgan up four. Remember the price difference there? Goldman, which is weaker than
both was up 9 to 488. American Express up 7. We're going to call it a good day's bounce
versus last week.
I guess you can call it due.
I don't know if you call it overdue.
And we'll see if this follow-up, follow-through.
We already did our scans, and we can tell you very narrowish in leadership,
not many new yearly highs.
I'm going to go, I'm going to finish that up after the radio show.
But good to see after, I mean, last week was about as gross as,
gross can be and what would go into this week we had a good bounce today and a few things I just
want to bring up out of the get-go that may or may not be important don't know Apple I guess
they came out with the Apple they introduced the Apple 16 is it 16 today and I'm just letting
you know the hype I'm going to use the word hype analysts are out
jumping all over themselves more than normal.
Just letting you know.
And by the way, that is not an indictment of them.
I'm just stating a fact.
They are stating that, oh, this is it.
This is the one.
I do recall they all said that the 5G, remember that,
was going to be the one and it wasn't.
Analysts are out today saying this is the one.
It's going to be a major league.
People getting rid of their old phones into a new one.
Apple is preparing to put together, have the suppliers make up more than everybody expected.
Of course, that is to come.
We'll see.
I don't know.
I'm not a genius with this stuff.
Then there are others what I call Appleites.
there are people that are not analysts but are very good techies for lack of a better word
and they're out saying blah blah not much to it anyway on the news and the introduction of it
apple stock was down about three and a half four dollars which is a big move for an apple but finished
up on the day, and you can see the NASDAQ was up strong early, was gagging, and once Apple started
to move, things started to follow. So that was a help. After the close, now this one's
an interesting one, Oracle. Oracle, 12 weeks ago, reported earnings. To me, they stunk.
earnings down 2%
Revenue is only up 3%.
They just reported
the next earnings report.
I have the stock that closed
just under 140
back to the high of the
12 week rate.
Oh, by the way, I forgot to mention
for 12 weeks it did nothing.
Cracked when the market
cracked, what about four weeks ago?
Came back up,
back in the range.
It's up about
$146 bucks.
let's call it
I want to make sure I got this right
it's up $6.87
about 4.9%
in the aftermarket
that's good news
and we'll open up
at the high of the range
tomorrow. I am noticing
in the aftermarket we'll see if it's meaningful
it's not
I'm just noticing a couple other software names
but not seeing what I would
call a biggie. So Oracle, important name, the NASDAQ 100, eh, only up a little bit in the aftermarket,
nothing special. Up next, we'll walk through the market. I got a few more things to cover.
And then we'll whine and complain. I'm Gary. This is the one only Investor's Edge.
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It's time to switch on the integrator units and get the brain cells working.
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It doesn't get better than this.
So I'm looking at Oracle numbers.
Pretty good.
I like it.
They also talked about an AWS contract.
And something with NVIDIA because everybody's doing business with NVIDIA, agreements, multi-cloud with this, that, and the other thing.
Good move.
We'll see if that means anything tomorrow.
I just do not want you to forget.
And by the way, AWS, do you know what that is, by the way?
Amazon Web Services.
Okay.
People tend to forget my business what happened beforehand.
I saw some talk today.
Oh, look at how great today is and markets this and markets that.
I'm like, do they know that the NASDAQ was down 1,023 points yesterday
and 193 up today is just what is known as a normal bounce?
By the way, we're not throwing cold water.
We will take every shred of that we can get.
Just let you know.
So good day.
the Dow really
by the way the Dow at one time was up
650 then it was only up
380 and the late little
close at the end
in the Dow
so let me just describe for you
as you know insurance stocks have been strong
travelers closes at a new yearly
high up six and chains
it's about
six to seven let's call that 40 something
Dow points Apple
I mean that's travelers
Next, Visa. I haven't had to mention Visa and MasterCard in a while. MasterCard now is getting near the high of six months ago volume patterns better. And they've had consistent earnings and sales. It's just been pretty much a dead stock for quite a while. Interesting enough, and remember what we think of them. They're a great bookie. Visa has labored. Visa is quickly coming up the right side. That would
is up six and change today. That's another 40 Dow points. So Visa is not an anchor on the market.
It's actually doing it some justice when it's been an anchor for a while. And you just had bounces
in everything. Let's start with American Express. It's done nothing for five months, but it held the 50
day on Friday. I'll throw cold water in a second. Goldman Sachs was up nine today. That's about
55-57 Dow points.
JP Morgan, up four. Remember price?
One's much higher. Holds the 50 day and bounces today.
And just hardly anything red, mostly green.
But again, I want you to remember, the Dow dropped 1,217 points yesterday.
If somebody would have asked me today or told me today, hey, the Dow is going to be up almost 500, I would have said, get out of here.
That's how much I know the next day.
And as you know, I will always say to you, I have no idea about the next day.
And I really don't.
And recently, it's been about as spastic as spastic can be.
It's been crazy.
The last five or six weeks have been insane.
You had a meltdown.
You had a V-shaped move up.
You had another big drop last week.
Up, let's come into Monday and boom, be up 484, NASDAQ 193.
And interesting enough, remember what I was telling you last week about economically sensitive everything?
And what is the market saying about that?
What is the market saying about these economically sensitive names getting trashed?
They all bounce pretty good today, not all.
So does the market look at the economy from day to day and say one day, hey, good.
The next day, oh, crap, the next day good.
All we can tell you, we want to get major trends off of launching pads.
And right now we're in the midst of the Everglades.
That's what we're in right now.
QuickSand, mush, ick, yuck, and all that.
Tomorrow's another day.
And by the way, Oracle's up $10 in the afternoon.
the market. That's a good move for an
Oracle.
And we'll see if it holds tomorrow.
I gather they're doing a
conference call and it's
trickling up the
NASDAQ 100 after the close.
Good on Larry Ellison.
By the way, Larry Ellison
owns Lanai,
one of the islands in Hawaii
amongst many other things.
And if you notice anything about Larry
Ellison of Oracle,
do you ever hear from him?
He just keeps themselves, does his thing,
got to be worth a hundred and some odd billion dollars,
and just does his thing.
Quite amazing.
So we'll be looking at Oracle tomorrow on this gap to the upside,
but it keeps moving higher as we see the aftermarket as we speak.
So Apple, Oracle, two very important names,
and also, as the market weakened and got trash last week,
we just make up a list of things that held up best.
What do you think they mostly all did today on a day up?
Want to hear a trade?
You ever hear a service now, N-O-W?
We bought it, and then we immediately sold it
because we thought the market was getting in trouble.
And after we sold it at 8.55,
and to give you an idea of strength the stock went down as low as 819 on Friday first day up
up 30 do you know what price 855 back to where we bought it you know what it shows me
on the first day up boy that's some strength by the way we're not telling you to buy
sell shorter cover and we're not saying whether go buy it again we're just letting
you know how we look at things what stocks after a
trashing on a day up, show their metal. That's one of them. And tonight when we do our work,
that's what we're going to be looking at. Where's the big strength? And of course, the next question is
always, and why? It's very narrow, but we'll take what we can get. Costco, in retail,
how many times do we mention that? That's been pulling back. Up 20 today.
still hasn't broken out yet, but shows its strength. That's the type of scanning we do. And then on
the other end, there are things that really didn't get going today. Got hit hard last week and
nothing happening today. Guess what we do with those? Now we throw them on the side until they
prove themselves. So that's the job we do. Consistently, constantly, with the same mottoes in mind,
And that is when wrong, be wrong fast and be wrong small and when right.
Try to let them run.
But this is a market that will not, for the most part, let you stick.
And as much as we are strong today, who knows tomorrow?
Up next, what else do I got for you?
And some news and some whining, complaining.
This is the one only investors edge.
Hi, I'm Dr. Jay Goodman, host of Beyond the Sprintless,
the podcast where I sit down with pharmacists to answer the health questions you didn't even know you could ask at the pharmacy counter.
In this episode, we are diving into gut health with CVS pharmacist Victoria Motola, who explains why so many of us live with stomach issues we should not accept as normal.
A lot of what I see is just like chronic bloating, chronic stomach aches.
Like I get a stomach ache every time that I eat and it just becomes like a lifestyle where,
oh yeah, you know, I just have a stomach kick every day.
Or I'm constantly feeling like gassy.
And all of those things are not something that generally, if you have a healthy gut, you should be living with.
So that's when we deep dive.
We deep dive into your medication.
We deep dive into your OTC medication.
And then at that point, we can probably identify something that we can change.
Hear the full conversation, plus some fascinating facts about how gut health affects so much more than just your stomach on Beyond the Script,
a podcast from CVS Pharmacy and IHeartRadio.
Listen now wherever you get your podcasts.
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Investors Edge.
He's got to be pleased with that.
The crowd is just on its feet here.
He's a Cinderella boy.
With Gary Colbomb.
It comes highly recommended.
You're going to feel better if you talk to him.
And welcome once again to Investors Edge.
So on the first day up after the market gets bombarded,
tonight we'll start with the new yearly high list.
And I can tell you it's not a lot.
And what I call not very meaty, M-E-A-T-Y.
Is there something with great institutional sponsorship
powering through and all that?
Not really.
I think there's a few, but not much.
But if the market gets better, we'll see more.
What else are we going to do?
What ain't happening?
I can safely tell you, maybe they get better tomorrow, but the socks, the semiconductors felt like just a bounce today.
Versus that NOW stock, which feels like it's got something behind it, the semiconductors dropped from 5,300 to 4,500 in eight days to bounce up is meaningless.
and our job is to gauge the bounce.
Now, I got a great question from a listener.
Gary always say follow the semiconductors.
They lead the market up and down.
That is correct.
But we also say not 100% of the time.
There are moments in time where they do not.
And in the case of the last few weeks,
you know where the strength has been?
Let's see.
I already did a bunch of scans,
and let me give you some strength.
You ready?
Colgate Campbell Soup, Clorox, General Mills, Kimberly Clark, Mondalese, Tyson Foods, Unilever.
No, really?
You ready for others?
And when we say relative doesn't mean these things are rocketing, but how about American electric power?
Utility.
How about Ameren?
Utility.
How about Dominion Energy?
utility. How about Duke Energy? Utility. Southern company utility. You get the point? What else is strength? Affleck, Allstate, Chubb, Hartford Financial, Progressive, Insurance. And we gave you a rhyme and a reason for them. Boy, are they raising prices. So notice, utilities, food, beverage, tobacco.
How, oh, I'm sorry, Philip Morris, Altria Group, that's the split of the two companies.
How about British tobacco?
These suckers are strong with no British tobacco's earnings are down seven revenues down nine and the stock's been rolling.
Very, very defensive market.
It's the best way I can explain it to you.
And there's also some of these, and you're probably not sure you heard of these, but very very, very defensive markets.
Vornado Realty Trust.
Owns office and retail space.
How about Regency Centers?
Shopping centers.
How about symbol F. First industrial realty.
Industrial real estate.
And it's not like these things are popping, but when you have the semiconductors croaking down in the 20s and these things are at highs, that's what we mean by relative strength.
and all the areas I just mentioned are defensive.
Other things that have been of strength, not all, but a couple of big banks.
And I'm not talking about Citigroup Bank America, Wells Fargo, or Morgan Stanley.
I'm talking JP Morgan and a bank in New York.
And Goldman is in the midst.
So very tough market right now.
I don't say that often.
Very tough.
So we're sitting on strength to Kava.
restaurants, remember that?
Big reaction to earnings,
came down on somebody issuing a bunch
of stock like 6 million shares,
it's starting to move again.
And again, we're not telling you to buy, sell,
shorter cover, we're just reporting to what's going on.
Mercado Libre
and name I've been mentioning to you,
M-E-L-I.
Sit in range-bound for three weeks.
Very tight now. Maybe once the breakout again.
You're going to need the what?
The M in the market.
and of course last week
took out the mallet
on everything in the market
so tomorrow
I think maybe Oracle is going to help a little bit
in fact
Oracle will help a little bit tomorrow
very important name
and
we'll see the rest
I haven't mentioned the Fed
they're on the 18th
they're in their quiet period now
they're going to lower rates.
The 10 years below 3-7.
They're at 5.5.5.5.
There's all the talk about whether they're going to lower rates a quarter or a half.
If Jay Powell was listened to this show, I would suggest the half.
But he don't give a crap what I think because we've been right about everything and he's been wrong.
Just remember he's just playing catch-up.
If you've been watching mortgage rates, they have been coming down without him lowering rates
because the mortgages are tied to the 10-year yield,
not to Jay Powell and his band of merry men and women.
And there you have it.
Tomorrow night's the debate.
And let me just state for the record up front.
What an embarrassment.
It's an embarrassment, ladies and gentlemen.
Do you know what I'm talking about?
An utter embarrassment.
As you know, I say to myself and I say to you,
I'm Mr. Logic.
We're logical here.
And we think we are because we really don't have a bias on Washington, D.C.
We do believe in we the people.
We lost all hope with the national media.
And I'm not talking about the opinion people.
I'm talking about the anchors and reporters.
And they've been doing the usual BS on Israel.
For some reason, they hate Israel.
I guess they don't like democracy unless it helps them.
embarrassment
embarrassment
one party
engineers
for lack of a better word
a coup
against their own
sitting president
running
for another four years
they basically
do it in plain sight
they started
with Clooney
by the way
he started it
went to the late night host
who were kissing the butt of Biden for three and a half years,
and then the rest fell in line.
We find out they threatened Biden by taking them out,
just so you know, a cabinet can vote.
It's an article out there.
Go look it up to put out a president.
Yes, it's out there.
And they got him to leave.
And they've all lied.
All of them.
Oh, Joe stepped down.
He's doing the honorable thing.
No.
He got himself beaten to a pulp by that whole side and all the money.
He got beaten to a pulp.
And they decided, and I'm going to use the word rightfully.
Rightfully so, Kamala Harris.
If you're going to select somebody, it should be the vice president.
but they waited and waited to do this.
They knew there were issues with Biden, but they waited to there couldn't be a primary.
And they insulated Kamala Harris.
And amazingly, Dana Bash, in the only interview she did, did not ask,
did you have contact with Nancy Pelosi, Chuck Schumer, George Clooney, the Obamas.
Did you have any phone conversations with them about getting rid of
Joe Biden and will you show us your phone records?
The number one question should have been that because it is a huge story.
But that's not the embarrassment.
That's bad enough.
So say they select Kamala Harris to be the vice president, who by the way, two or three months ago,
now actually going to go back to an extra month, four months, the lefty magazines and
newspapers wanted her out. The commentary was all negative on her. Her poll numbers were terrible.
That's not the embarrassment. The embarrassment after being selected and not elected. We know that.
The people calling for democracy and ripping Donald Trump on democracy did the most anti-democratic thing possible.
So what's the embarrassment?
That's up next.
And we'll take you to the debate.
This is the one the only investor's edge.
Hi, I'm Dr. Jake Goodman, host of Beyond the script,
the podcast where I sit down with pharmacists
to answer the health questions you didn't even know you could ask at the pharmacy counter.
In this episode, we are diving into gut health with CVS pharmacist,
Victoria Motola, who explains why so many of us live with stomach issues
we should not accept as normal.
A lot of what I see is just like chronic bloating, chronic stomach aches.
Like I get a stomachache every time that I eat.
And it just becomes like a lifestyle where, oh, yeah, you know, I just have a stomach
ache every day.
Or I'm constantly feeling like gassy.
And all of those things are not something that generally, if you have a healthy gut, you
should be living with.
So that's when we deep dive.
We deep dive into your medication.
We deep dive into your OTC medication.
And then at that point, we can put it.
probably identify something that we can change.
Hear the full conversation, plus some fascinating facts about how gut health affects so much more
than just your stomach on Beyond the Script, a podcast from CVS Pharmacy and IHeartRadio.
Listen now wherever you get your podcasts.
With the Venmo debit card, a taco in one hand, and ordering a ride in the other means you're
stacking your rewards.
Nice. Get up to 5% cash back with Venmo Stash on your favorite brands when you pay
with your Venmo debit card.
From takeout to ride shares, entertainment and more.
Pick a bundle with your go-toes and start earning cash back at those brands.
Do more stash, get more cash.
Venmo stash bundle terms and exclusion supply.
See terms at Venmo.combe.
slash stash terms.
Max $100 cash back per month.
Cash flow crunch.
On-deck's small business line of credit gives your business immediate access to funds
up to $200,000 right when you need it.
Cover seasonal dips, manage payroll, restock inventory,
or tackle unexpected expenses without missing a beat with flexible
draws, transparent pricing, and control over repayment. Get funded quickly and confidently. Apply today
at on deck.com. Funds could be available as soon as tomorrow. Depending on certain loan attributes,
your business loan may be issued by On Deck or Celtic Bank. OnDak does not lend in North Dakota. All loans and amount
subject to lender approval. You're listening to. What are we waiting for? Well, what are you
waiting for? One, two, ready, go. Action! In the Gester's Edge. With Gary Kulp.
So, and by the way, we are doing all this because, oh, it's a big deal.
So what's the embarrassment?
A woman that was selected to be vice president and then elected along with Biden.
A woman who was selected by the powers of B, by forcing Biden out with threats.
A woman who is running for the presidency of the United States, the leader of the free world.
one would suggest the most important job in the world has done one interview, interviewed by an amateur friend that did not hold the powerful to account.
I ran over a bunch of questions that were not asked of this woman.
The embarrassment is between the media and their campaign have let her be.
have let her not answer to the American people.
Dana Bash was supposed to represent the American people with her questions.
She represented herself and made nice, nice.
It is an embarrassment that Kamala Harris and this guy Waltz did one,
nothing of an interview, and nothing else.
They've thrown out some campaign, this and that, generalization.
They finally put out the other part, oh, we're going to raise taxes left and right.
But nothing.
No press conference.
No other interviews.
It's an embarrassment.
It's like third world country stuff that a presidential candidate refuses and the media is not pissed off a bit.
Not one of them starts by saying,
Vice President Harris and Governor Walts refuse to do an interview with us.
We ask them 25 times.
There's a standing interview.
We have very important questions of them, and they don't want anything of it, and we are not happy about it.
Not one.
It's an embarrassment.
And as an American and a taxpayer and somebody who cares, it pisses me off.
We'll have a debate tomorrow.
I will be live tweeting, which is now Xing.
Do you think they're going to ask her about the $2 trillion deficits that her and Biden ran?
Do you think they're going to ask her about the 10 million people that came across the border while she was named head of the border, even though they're lying that she wasn't?
Do you think they're going to ask her?
Do you know what we're finding out by now?
Do you remember the whole thing with Trump and the breaking up of families at the border?
Do you remember what they did to him 24-7 on that?
Ripped the stuffings out of him.
Do you know we're finding out that thousands, maybe even tens of thousands of kids are missing that came across the border?
Are you seeing any headlines on that?
Are you seeing any questions about that?
Are you seeing any of the media pissed off about it?
Do you think they're going to ask her about that tomorrow?
We're now hearing tens of thousands of kids are missing under you and Joe Biden's watch.
You think they're going to ask that?
Do you think they're going to ask her $360 billion were given to John Podesta for climate?
What is it being spent on?
Do you think they're going to ask her tomorrow about?
the $8 billion that went towards seven charging stations and why they can't do better.
And by the way, who got all that money?
Do you think they're going to ask that?
Do you think they're going to ask about her when she was a prosecutor and all that stuff
in California?
Do you think they're going to ask her about what's going on in California?
I think we're going to get another embarrassment, ladies and gentlemen.
that's what I think
I think we're going to get
another embarrassment
and in case you don't know in California
let me read this to you
IRS data
ranked states based on net migration
of young households
ages 26 to 35
that earned at least 200,000 a year
the biggest losers number one
California Illinois
Massachusetts New York Pennsylvania
after that Michigan
Louisiana, Delaware, Minnesota, Missouri.
Biggest gainers by far, Florida, and Texas.
You think they're going to ask about that?
There's your embarrassment.
You know, when Trump complains about
getting screwed on the election,
he should have been complaining about
the embarrassment.
The embarrassment.
I hold out, on a scale of 1 to 100,
about 2.
On the ABC anchors or whoever they are holding her to account, you think they will?
On a scale of 1 to 100, I give them a 2.
I'd be happy with 10.
And they're very simple, logical, easy questions to ask.
I know what they're going to ask Trump.
You know they're going to hold him to account.
they give him a colonoscopy on a daily basis
10 times a day
whether he earns it or not
we'll see if we have another embarrassment tomorrow
because ladies and gentlemen
we have polar opposites
and whether you believe in her or believe in him
we have polar opposites
and I want each of them
taken to task
I want each of them with their backs up against the wall
I want each of them getting the toughest of tough questions
and follow-ups when they throw the BS out at the American people.
Good day today.
Maybe a decent start tomorrow with Oracle.
We'll see.
Good bounce off of last week.
You have a great evening drive carefully.
When you get home, do like we do.
Quite simple.
Make sure you hug your family.
Make sure you hug your children.
They will feel better.
You will feel better.
I promise.
Peace out all.
Serenity now.
Now.
Good night.
This has been Investors' Edge with Gary Cult Bomb on Biz Talk.
To listen to past episodes or to get in contact with Gary, go to GaryK.com.
That's GaryK.com.
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