Investor's Edge with Gary Kaltbaum - Valuations matter [06.22.2026]

Episode Date: June 22, 2026

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Investor's Edge with Gary Coltbaum. Straight talk about you and your money. Now from the BizTalk Studios, here is Gary Cultbaum. And welcome once again to Investors Edge. I'm Gary Coltbaum, your host. Hey, thanks for being with us today. Glad you here, ladies and gentlemen. Happy that you are listening.

It is 22nd of June, 2006. I almost said 2022. What does it matter with me? I swear, let me tell you, I play puzzles every day, I watch game shows, I'm with it. Anyway, it's not 2022. Serious talk on everything that affects you. And today, we're going to be a little bit more serious. a little bit more terse in the hope of me sending the message of protecting your capital when they don't give a crap about you and they foist upon you crazy stuff. In case you don't know, this is Investor's Edge.

It is serious talk on everything that affects you. The markets, the economy, your job, your industry. Scams, shams, corruption, liars, cheaters, thieves, self-dealing, wars, tariffs, end of wars, lies about end of wars. Yeah, whatever I think. Hope you don't mind. Anyway, I'm going to spend quite some time today. on one subject and that is trading in $10 bills for $5 or in some cases $10 bills for $1.

Okay, listen carefully. We did not predict anything. We still are not predicting anything. In fact, we have stated to you when it came to space X that we do not have any edge on it. It's exactly what we said. We have no edge on the trading of SpaceX at all. And the reason is, very simple, what we do is about pattern recognition, defining up trends and downtrends, bull and bare markets, bottoms and tops, and anything that goes with it. When something comes out in the public domain, it usually needs weeks for me to get a feel because it has to set up for me.

we call them IPO initial public offering bases. I remember, I think it was MasterCard. I'm thinking, I'm putting it up right now. MasterCard came public in 2006. I'm going to put that up right now. There you go. And I remember what happened with MasterCard. By the way, I'm looking at it right now.

It came out and did nothing, I don't know, for weeks. And I don't know if I think we had like bearish phase and this and that. And then it was in August of 2006, had a big up day. So you had about six, seven weeks. and then it broke out. By the way, at five bucks, includes all the splits.

So you had a pattern recognition of trading range and then a breakout of that range. So at least there was something there to see, to get a feel for. That was MasterCard. Another one,

and this one, we didn't do MasterCard. We weren't smart enough. how about meta meta when it came public it was Facebook by the way they had some trouble going public in 2012

the stock got hit it was I think a high of 45 bucks down to 25 and I'm not sure about what splits or whatever and then there was all kinds of problems that went down to like 22 it was down like 50%. And then in August it was down even more. And then in September, it was down even more.

And then came the October earnings. And as I'm looking at it, I'm trying to remember exactly. when and where it was. I'm in November right now. Now I'm going December. I guess it was January. It was trying to do better. And then January earnings came out. Or was it February? I'm getting my bearing straight here as I speak to you on meta. Because it was a complete change of complexion after months and months of people being pissed off about how things were handled. And I remember it pretty well. There you go.

It was July 25th. The stock closed at 26 and a half, opened at 35, blew away Wall Street estimates, and you had a major league breakout of a big surprise, accelerated numbers, and it was off to the races. But then we get SpaceX. So let me just tell you, first off, it was down $30 in change today. And I'm using aftermarket as a trades.

It's down $30.78, $154.13. And it's trading right now. Nothing I say is about the company. or the stock. It's about the stock and the valuation. $135 deal, which gave it a $1.7-something trillion market cap. And what am I telling you?

They're nuts. How do you do $1.7 trillion market cap with only 18 billion in revenues and a $5 billion loss. And by the way, they pretty much say they're going to lose again this year. Now, of course, I've watched interviews with Ron Barron, brilliant man, who thinks this is going to be worth trillions of dollars. But I can't worry about where things may be down the road years. I've got to worry about now whether something is worth a $10 bill if I handed

somebody $10. So they rallied up in two days to $225, $135 IPO, opens at $150. At $225, I didn't look myself, but I was told it had a valuation of Amazon. And what did I equate that to? Rivian, very different. Rivian had no sales when it came out, but it had a market cap almost equal to GM and Ford on the second day of trading. Even though GM and Ford had like, what, 300 billion in revenues, they had the market cap of GM and Ford. Think about that, Rivian.

And I just said to you flippantly, but meaningfully, this thing is worth like 10 bucks when it was, I think the high was 180. And I got emails from people and I just try to explain. Some people curse me, you know, whatever. I'm like, dudes, relax, take it easy. If you buy it today, you are buying it with no sales, the same valuation as GM and Ford that have about $300 billion in revenues. So they bring SpaceX out and they don't learn their lessons. And what do they do? There's two parts of the equation here.

Number one, the buyers take the blame. Who else gets the blame? That's up next on Investor's Edge. Hi, I'm Gary Kalbaum, hosted a nationally syndicated radio show Investors Edge. We're not just handsome radio people. We manage investors' money for a living, specializing in fee-based discretionary money management. No big commissions, just a fee on the assets that's managed.

We also provide a full range of personalized services, including retirement planning, fixed income, and educational needs, all to assist you in achieving your financial goals. Understanding not all individuals have the same needs, we'll carefully evaluate your personal goals to determine a proper investment strategy. If your current approach to investing is not getting you to where you would like to be, call us to make an appointment for a complementary portfolio review. The number to call is 888-4-22-5-59. That's 888-4-2-5-59.

That's 888-4-22-5-5-9. Investment Advisory Services offered through call-bomb capital management. It's time to switch on the integrator units and get the brain cells working. You're listening to. Hey, this promises to be fun. The last bastion of quality programming. With Gary Coltbaum. It doesn't get better than this.

Okay. By the way, before I continue, I have no idea what SpaceX stocks does tomorrow. I have no idea. It was down 30 bucks today, 31 right this second, and I repeat, I have no idea what it does tomorrow. no idea no idea what i do know is how to read a balance sheet and how to read market cap which is shares times price and as i said to you what there's a company who put a buyout on spacex with a target of $401, $401, which would give it like a $5 trillion market cap with $18 billion of sales. They're freaking insane.

But it's still incumbent upon the investor. What exactly am I buying? And I have preached to you about Buffett and valuation. Buffett actually said tough to bet against Elon Musk, but how does anybody, except for a trader, you know, a guy that's going to buy it here and hopefully make $5 up and if it drops $5 bucks gets out with a $5 loss type of thing? How can anybody buy something with a $2.000 dollar market cap with only 18 billion in revenues, 100 whatever time sales and loses $5 billion.

And I am saying this letting you know, I don't know what happens tomorrow. And I don't know if the stock that's sitting at 154 as I speak goes to 254 by Friday. Just remember, price is what somebody is willing to pay for it. somebody was willing to pay Rivian the same market cap just about on Ford and GM with no sales and hopefully they traded out of it before disaster just like last September

I'm just getting on this show and saying to you dudes there's a bunch of no sales nuclear and rare earth and drones and quantums and one of them has a $25 billion market cap with no sales. Of course, they're now down 60, 70, 80%. Because, as we always say, ultimately, Palantir closed at a new yearly low today.

How is it possible that the most touted stock in the market can be at new yearly lows? How is that possible? when the CEO is all over your tube telling you how great things are. What did I say? At the highs. At the highs. Like a $400 billion market cap with $400 billion with $5 billion in sales. Not even at the time.

Valuations. Yet they still bring out SpaceX at this. And by the way, we're in a bull market for froth and speculation and things like that. And it was 225, four trading days ago. It's now 154 in change. 30 some odd percent in four days. And I'm saying this again telling you, for all I know, it's 250 in five days, because let me repeat again. Price is what somebody's willing to pay in the stock market.

And we've seen crazy. I'm just letting you know, you got to take the pen to the paper. As I stated to you, if this company sold pipes, $10. You should have seen the emails I got on that. They make like I'm being mean. I'm trying to help. knowing and saying to you, for all I know, it goes to 250 this week. But we're dealing with in real time.

It dropped over 30 bucks today, down to 154. It was 225. I saw a bunch of pundits on TV saying they're buying it. And I'm like, what? Based on what? And by the way, I even mentioned, has anybody even thought about risk of what happened to the Blue Origin rocket recently? Don't you think that's part of the equation? Now, guess what?

Starlink is the one that brings in the box. And it's by no accident. There's news on Starlink every day. United Airlines first transatlantic wide-body customer flight equipped with Starlink. set to take off today. SpaceX puts that out and then says is now on board United, signs 150 million month colossus compute deal with reflection AI, granting access to Nvidia chips. That's today. Of course you got to mention AI. Wow. 150 million a month compute deal

that's 1.8 billion in revenues a year and I have no clue what that means Air Force One the new Boeing Air Force One is going to be equipped with Starlink announced today you think they're

smart marketers great it's still ridiculous valuations we'll put a bow tie on this up next on this the one only Investor's Edge and we're listening to

America is talking Investors Edge He's got to be pleased with that The crowd is just on his feet here He's a Cinderella boy With Gary Colbomb Comes highly recommended You're gonna feel better if you talk to

And walk once again to Investors Edge Anyway We're just giving you A little bit of real You know, we do the shows here and say to you, the greatest scam on earth is the lottery and the scratch-offs by our government has put out the greatest scam on earth. And they market to people that don't have enough money. The rich can afford lottery tickets or scratch-offs. The lower income and middle class, maybe not, but that's who they market to.

We don't do that for our health. We do that to make you understand. We try to tell you how bad Social Security is. What a scam. Greatest scam of all time. All you've got to do is put the pen to the paper if they took out the same amount of money that has been taken out of your paycheck since you started working. And instead of going into a Social Security trust fund, it went into a separate account.

That's in your name. and all it was doing was investing in 10-year treasury bonds, not even the stock market. And it's in your name. You know how much more money you'd have right now? A bazillion more. And you wouldn't be getting $3,000 checks. You'd be able to take seven and 10 and 12.

The power of compounding. And God forbid, 10% of that money went into the S&P 500, 40 years ago. Holy crap, what you would have. But no, let's have a government-run program because we don't trust the people to take care of their own money. So we're going to force it on them. And then we're going to create this big Social Security administration that costs billions of dollars a year. There's your Social Security for you.

Hey, all you people that are on Medicare and Medicaid, have you even looked at how confusing that crap is? I consider myself smart and I got this thing from them on Medicare and Medicaid, 2006. It's an encyclopedia. They do it to confuse the living crap out of you. Why do we do these shows for you? Just so you get real and protect your capital. and when they bring out initial public offering and hype the living crap out of it and pundits on TV telling you to buy it with a $2.4 trillion dollar market cap in 18 billion in sales

and loses $5 billion in the last year and the market cap is as big as Amazon that has $780 billion. You've got to just think to yourself and ask your questions. What can go wrong? I'll tell you what can go wrong. The market, because our old line, eventually valuations will matter. Always comes to place. Always comes to be. And I'm not saying SpaceX isn't going to be a multi-trillion dollar company down the line.

I'm saying it isn't right now. And I hope. by the way we take no joy in this no joy in this we hope it goes up we hope it bucks the trend i hope it doesn't listen to gary as handsome and buffed as i am we hope it goes up we repeat we don't know if it's going to 250 by friday we don't know if it's going to a hundred by Friday. We don't know what it's going to do tomorrow. We just know right now with the aftermarket, it's down $31.33.33. And I bet you some of those pundits sold today. Telling you to buy a stock with that type of crazy valuation. Anyway, and by the way,

there's a couple of more coming out that are insane that I'm reading about. Open AI and Anthropic and the valuations they have. By the way, you know how they get to these valuations? They market it. The private equity people that, by the way, those stocks are getting crushed, they market it. And they do the first tranche and the second tranche and the third tranche and this, this, this, this, this and this. Anyway, we hope it works out.

Let me put it best longer term. I think it's got, you know, this guy Elon Musk is shown the way. And Starlink's pretty big. By the way, and it's great. I had Starlink over the Pacific on Hawaiian Airlines, and it was fantastic. And I've had some internet on airplanes that suck. I got news for you. I was at Caesar's Palace in Vegas, and the internet sucked.

And I called Caesar's Palace up. They set me up with the internet company. Yeah, we know. I go, wait a minute, this is Las Vegas. How do you have bad internet in Caesar's Palace? By the way, it's well known. It's not like I'm saying something, anything that's not known. How do you have bad internet in Las Vegas and Caesar's Palace?

I've been to small islands in Greece, hotels buried in a mountain with better internet. internet than Caesar's Palace in Vegas. Anyway, back on Starlink, it's really good. And I told the manager at Caesar's Palace to get Starlink, by the way. This is a few months ago. All right. We're done with SpaceX here. We wish it well.

We hope it goes up. It was a bad day. I did not see any news. I thought I saw something about a bond offering, but I'm not, I don't see it anywhere. All I see is United Airlines and what they signed. Space X bond offering. Let me see if that's out there. SpaceX turns the bond market to raise capital.

Oh, okay, 21 minutes ago. I did see it. Turned to the bond market first time. Capital is post-time minimum vault is raised the cashed $100. They have $100 billion in cash. That's pretty good. So maybe that's not the stock today. Okay, SpaceX did a bond sale. Interesting.

And a senior unsecured note, you know what unsecured is. That means it's not secured. Duh. Use the proceeds to pay off bridge financing and other general purpose needs, but it's debt. It doesn't disclose how much they plan to raise. Maybe that hit the stock today. I don't know. Anyway, another thing.

in the market. You ready for this? The NASDAQ 100 was only down 59 points. The NASDAQ was down 351 points. What gives? Wow, huh? How's the NASDAQ down 351 and the NASDAQ 100 only down 59? And a bunch of NASDAQ 100 stocks were hit today. Meta down 14, Microsoft down 11, Google down 19, Amazon down 11. And V-V-I-N-V-I-W-D-E-W-D-E-W-A-R-W-A-R-W-A-N-H-D-V-E-R-V-E-N-H-D-E-I-G-G-N-G-A-I-N-G-A-I-N-G-A-I-N-R-E-I-G-G-G. I looked at it today and all of a sudden the waitings are now on the move. That's the story. And a big wow, which takes me to the next part, the Mags.

If you go look at a chart of MAGS below the 200-day moving average, the Mag 7, up next, we'll go through that and the rest of the market. I'm Gary. This is the one only Investor's Edge. You're listening to What are we waiting for? Well, what are you waiting for? One, two, ready, go. Action!

In the Gester's Edge. With Gary Culpa. So, the Dow was up 148 today, but Caterpillar was up, let's see. Caterpillar is an artificial intelligence stock now, just so you know, not kidding, was 240 Dow points today. And the Dow was only up 148. Why?

McDonald's New Yearly Low. Amazon kicked in the teeth, which takes me the next party equation. I really think with this Mag 7 that did so well for so many years, it's just being sold down now. And I think that money is going into the AI semiconductor thing and making that into bigger moves than maybe not. That's how it works. And just so you know, if I'm to describe things, Amazon down 1160 today, breaking below a little bit to 200-day moving average, broke important support, couple of a week's ago with 260 already down to 233, going deeper into the yuck.

Google, alphabet, breaks badly recently as they're raising $80 billion or something like that, wedges along the 50 day and cracks today for $18.40, 5% for a mega cap? Microsoft, oh, gross. It was 466, three weeks ago. It's down $100 in three and a half weeks. Oh, and by the way, that's way off the highs of a year ago. Remember, these are the most influential to the S&P and the NASDAQ 100. Meta, down 13 today and is just, we'll just call that bare market.

Netflix, down four and a half today. 72 bucks, 7288, trading at new yearly lows. Netflix topped out in July of 25 at 134, it's 72.88 and new yearly lows now. Netflix. And then you have Adobe,

new yearly lows. Salesforce.com, new yearly lows. Oracle, not new yearly lows, but it just went from 250 to 175 in three weeks. SAP, the big German software, new yearly lows. So some of this mega stuff, holy crap, a Maddoch, Batman. And I really do believe the portfolio managers now are screw this. Look what microns do and look what sand disk is doing. Look what the memory and whatever.

Get the hell out of this mega stuff. It ain't doing squat that's had its time. And they're gone elsewhere and it's extenuating. It's extending both up and down to different areas. We used to love owning this mega cap stuff because it's so liquid. It's dead. I take it back. It's worse than dead.

It's going lower. And today was a very rough day. And again, NASDAQ down 351, the NASDAQ 100 only down 59. Why? Let's see. Semiconductors, the socks up another 292 today. Sand disk up another 100. Micron up 92.

That's why. major movement of money going on in the markets. If it changes again, we'll let you know, but dang. And we have been on a void on all those names. And software, remember we had those two great days of software? Remember that? They have crashed the software stocks since those two days. down 20% in two and a half weeks?

They're three weeks. Isn't 20% for a whole sector a crash in three weeks? That's what it's done. And that's the sector. Individual names? Worse. So a lot of jello moving on the plate kids. Waking up today were areas of electronic parts.

They were lying in the weeds. How about the electronics, miscellaneous type stuff? Notice that. Symbol L-I-T-E, Good Day, Corning, Good Day, Coherent, Good Day. And then the usual's. Good day. With the NASDAQ down 351, it was the weirdest day, ladies and gentlemen. It was a weird day.

Coming out of the Middle East, remember last, week I'm done with this administration we're not even gonna we're just gonna do news we're not gonna say anything bad we're just done if you notice this weekend Italy's now the enemy Trump lied as usual because that's his M.O. and the Italian Prime Minister came out or whatever title is and what the hell you're talking about buddy it's a good-looking woman and he said she begged for a picture. What I tell you,

egomaniacal? Anyway, we're just done with it. We're wishing them well. We'll stand beside him. We'll hope he does great things. But we're just we can't stand the bull crap. We're just absolutely done.

Little movement in the Middle East. We'll see what tomorrow brings. You have a great evening. Drive carefully. When you get home, do like we do quite simple. Make sure you hug your family, hug your children. They will feel better. You'll feel better. I promise they will be well. Until tomorrow, have a great one. Good night. This has been Investors Edge with Gary Cult Bomb on BizTalk. To listen to past episodes or to get in

contact with Gary, go to GaryK.com. That's GaryK.com.