Investor's Edge with Gary Kaltbaum - Vertigo [04.07.2025]
Episode Date: April 7, 2025https://garykaltbaum.com__________Disclaimer:The opinions you hear on BizTalkRadio, BizTV, or BizTalkPodcasts are those of the hosts, callers, and guests and do not necessarily reflect those of BizTal...kRadio, BizTV, or BizTalkPodcasts, its management or advertisers. The information on BizTalkRadio et al does not constitute a recommendation, offer, or solicitation to buy or sell any product or securities. Please consult a professional before investing.
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Investor's Edge with Gary Coltbaum.
Straight talk about you and your money.
Now from the BizTalk Studios, here is Gary Cultbaum.
And welcome once again to Investors Edge.
I'm Gary Coltbaum, your host.
A thanks of being with us today.
Glad you here, ladies and gentlemen, happy that you are listening.
It's Monday.
It's April 7th.
It's 2025.
Hope you had a great weekend.
I traveled too and far.
I'm back in Florida, but it looks like you're,
I'm heading back up to New York.
My father, as I have told you, is 93 going on 94.
And now he's got respiratory stuff.
And that's not good news.
I just got a call from my brother.
They're going to take him up to, he's going to go see a doctor right now.
And I'll hear, I'll find out what the heck's going on.
And hopefully everything's a okay.
And if I got to run up there, I shall be running up there.
We're in interesting times, ladies and gentlemen, and I've been really trying to measure the words here, but not measuring my words.
What I mean by that is I want to come across in a way that's even keel, but I also want to come across in a way that I mean business.
Make any sense?
So in case you don't know, this is serious talk on everything that affects you.
We'll do the markets, the markets, the economy tariffs, your job, your industry, more tariffs, and more tariffs.
And if you do not get this show in your city, we'll post it at garyk.com.
We'll also post it on our Twitter feed, which is now X.
And if you don't follow us on X, you should.
And if you'd like to email me, just be nice.
So we warned you.
We didn't warn you last week about the tariffs.
We didn't warn you the week before about the tariffs.
We didn't warn you three weeks ago about the tariffs.
We warned you at the outset of all the tariff talk.
And what we simply told you was they don't make any sense.
They don't make any sense in the fact
that you have a president that says his number one theme on a growing economy is lower taxes for all.
Yet they have talked about we're going to collect 600 billion a year, 6 trillion over 10 years.
Now we can argue that number, yes or no, couldn't care less.
The fact is he's not telling the truth.
The fact is these tariffs are not penalizing China or any other country when that product comes in.
It is penalizing our businesses and potentially our consumers.
This is a fact.
And if they look into the camera and say otherwise, they are not telling the truth.
And notice I'm being kind with my verbiage with the words they are not telling the truth.
So we warned you.
Now, leading into last Wednesday, I was actually getting hopeful because leading up to last Wednesday when they had the Rose Garden meeting, they kind of calm down.
The president would get hard nose with tariffs and then the market would go down and then all of a sudden what did we do?
he put them off.
And that happened three or four times.
And then leading up to that Wednesday, it was quieter.
And the president himself said, I'm using his words.
When it comes to tariffs, I'm going to be kind and generous.
And then he came in and let's see, what's a good analogy for what he did?
What's a good analogy?
The kitchen sink?
Is that a good analogy?
Throwing everything against the wall to stick.
And as you know, at the outset of that meeting, the market was going up when he said 10%.
And then the market crashed into today.
Well, crashed Thursday and Friday.
I think today we probably hit A low.
I'll explain in a minute.
But they crashed the market to the two.
tune of $8 trillion for $1 trillion in trade deficits. It makes absolutely no sense. I don't get it.
And of course, they're covering their arse right now with all kinds of weird verbiage.
They have come out and stated that, let's see, oh, they expected this to happen.
the president over the weekend said we need to take our medicine.
Isn't that interesting?
Don't you know you need to take your medicine?
He said that.
I'm not making this up.
There are people out there that are actually saying he did this on purpose to get interest rates down.
Crash the market to get interest rates down?
Okay.
And the shame of this is, and we do this without any bias, I would give him a big hug.
for what he's done on the border.
He saved lives at the border.
People were dying coming across the board because of Joe Biden.
And of course, the media never reported it.
People drowned coming through.
People died in the back of trucks coming through.
Children missing left and right.
You remember when Trump was president and he separated families?
and the media had a you know what fit 24-7?
Well, we got a lot of kids missing
and the media didn't say word.
That's why we know the media just absolutely sucks.
So on the board, I hug him.
For what he's doing with the universities
and holding them accountable
for being the anti-Semitic crap heads that they are,
I want to hug him.
For trying to get the tax cuts permanent,
I want to hug him.
For the regulatory cuts, the onerous regulations, I want to hug them.
For the fighting crime, I want to hug them, except I don't want to hug them for pardoning all the J6 people.
I thought that was terrible.
For Doge, I want to hug them, though they went too much, too far, too fast, and they got to slow that roll down.
Sending criminals out of here, I want to hug them, though, they got to.
make sure they're sending criminals away because a couple of people fell through the cracks.
And by the way, I do not minimize those people that were sent that shouldn't have been sent.
But these tariffs are the stupidest, most moronic idea in history.
And they are not telling the truth about them.
And the markets crashed.
And as usual, they're getting cover from the people that love him.
I don't blame them.
That's what politics are about.
Come heck or high water.
we'll see how it plays out. In the last couple of days, it went from tariffs are here to stay,
to we're dealing, to tariffs are here to stay, to we are dealing, to tariffs are here to stay,
to we are dealing, to today threatening China, that if China doesn't take off their tariffs by tomorrow,
he's adding another 50%. So I don't know where that's going. What I do know is, and I say this very lightly
right now. What I do know right this second, I think right about here, the market's trying to take a stand.
And I say that with the Dowdown 350 today. Why do I say that? Because certain things happen in the market that stand out for me as a
somebody who watches the market and remembers the past and is studied the 87 crash, which,
by the way, after the crash, the market did nothing for about nine months.
This is different, though.
I believe it's different.
We'll see.
We say that because today, I don't remember a day like today where the swings were just
freaking insane. From start to the last minute. And usually, listen carefully, usually,
after a drop, when you get those wild swings, it usually changes the direction for the near term.
And those wild swings are either on the upside or downside due to the fact we haven't been going up,
obviously we've been going down.
So my expectation
is that
the low of today
for now,
maybe not forever,
sticks to this second.
Up next, I'll expound more
on the markets. This is the one only Investor's Edge.
Hi, I'm Gary Kalbaum,
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called bomb it doesn't get better than this so let me expound for example today the nasdaq at 14784 in the morning
i believe that would have been right at the open yes it closed oh by the way it hits 16292 so the
NASDAQ, by the way, 510, 15, 20, 25, 30, in 35 minutes went up a measly 1,500 points or 10%.
What?
The NASDAQ went up 10% in how many minutes?
510, 15, 20, 25, 30, 35 minutes.
But what happened after that?
Well, it went from 16292 to 15241 in 20 minutes.
1,000 points on 16. What is that? 6% in change.
And then it was up and down and up and down and up and down with just ridiculously wild swings all day.
Finished up a measly 15 points. So what's so good about that?
Well, the fact is, on the open today, the Dow was down 800.
And when I look at a chart, bear with me, because some of you that don't have a,
listen to this when I look at the chart and today's bar the bar of price goes from
14784 to 16292 and finishes at 15603 pretty much in between and you have 200 point
swings in a minute by the way I have to mention this also before I move further
the Dow which was still down 350 today
In that move, and again, I'm not making this up in that 35 minutes, the Dow went from 36 to 392.
The Dow went up 2,600 points in 35 minutes before backing off.
That news was the rumor that the president was looking to have a 90-day pause on tariffs except for China, which ended up not being true.
but when you have wild swings after a drop usually
the low of today
should be a low for right now
and then what we have to do if it is the case
we have to see whether we can get some juice
from here which normally you will
and due to the fact that the Dow
which is sitting at 37-965
and it was 42,000
let's see what did it close last monday
42,225
I would suggest it can bounce
and by the way that again the Dow today
which closed just let's say 38,000
it hit 366 so we're pretty sure
it's a good guess
based on my technical analyst prowess
that the lows of today
should hold
for now from this
call it a crash
dislocation does not matter
and we'll see what tomorrow brings
and we say that knowing
that the news is insane
and who knows what the president's going to do next
because I really do not know
and again
as I said
I'd hug him on a bunch of things
this is night
mairish
and people are saying
some of the things I hear, the stock market isn't the economy.
That's another stupid comment.
You want to make a bet?
You want to make a bet?
So we'll see what one man and his whims decide to do on tariffs, taxes as you move forward.
And just letting you know for this second, I am thinking that the low of today holds doesn't mean we don't pull back a little bit towards it.
It does not mean that, but I think the low of the day holds.
And if we can get some sort of, I don't know what word I'm looking for with these tariffs,
I think we can rally decently here in a big downtrend, in a big downtrend.
I don't know what else to say on the market here.
they got everything that was holding up on Friday and I can tell you everything that was holding up on Friday that just was blasted going into Friday.
Blasted Friday was down again today.
You know it was up today?
The semiconductors.
Some of the big tech software and other technology.
Just had better relative strength all day.
telling my peeps that.
And with the Dow down 350, the NASDAQ was up 15.
Tells you everything about relative strength.
And by the way, to see how crazy this market was today, into the close, into the close,
into the close, I'm amazed at what the market did, just into the close.
It rallied up 300 points in five minutes into the close.
It was down 600.
The NASDAQ into the close rallied 140 points.
So it was down 125 points on the five-minute bar into the close and finish up 15.
The market traded like a penny stock today.
But I actually think that's going to set the stage for some sort of counter-trend move.
volume was gargantuan
it says to me
potentially wash out for now
and notice I'm throwing those words for now in
because if we rally and bounce
anemically or we don't rally or bounce
anemically we can take out them lows
they're now calling it a bare market
gee now they are even though we were saying it for
eons all the sectors that were already in bare
markets and all the pundits, boy, you should have seen some pundits today, bullcrapping their way,
the fully invested pundits telling you to buy today, but not telling you they're down 35%.
Whatever. That's why you've got to follow the market, ladies and gentlemen, or else. Let me tell you
a few other things that are going on right now. And we're not throwing stones. We're just telling
your facts. If you don't mind, we're just telling your facts. A lot of downgrades now on the
economy. Everybody calling for recession now that wasn't calling for recession. But we were telling
you all the economically sensitive areas were telegraphing one. Up next, what about that economy?
I got a few thoughts on that. I'm Gary. This is the one only investor's edge.
It's no use putting it off. The best time for an underwear refresh is now. Tommy John
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Don't settle for less. Go to Tommyjohn.com today for 25% off your first order with Code
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Lounge access is subject to change.
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He's got to be pleased with that. The crowd is just on his feet here. He's a Cinderella boy.
With Gary Colbomb.
It comes highly recommended. You're going to feel better if you talk to him.
So the economy, I tend to do one plus one equals two.
So before this crash, I'll tell you, I'm not going to say the word crash.
Before this drop, we thought the economy was already softening up.
How did we know?
Well, we, in the airports every weekend, the flights are not even close to full now.
I flew back and forth from New York this weekend, and I can tell you that my flight up there was about 70% full when it's usually 100, and back probably about 75% full back to Orlando, Florida, when it's usually 100% full.
I will also tell you that the TSA lines were very much, and I fully.
I flew there to LaGuardia.
I flew back in Newark.
They were very, very, very soft.
Very soft.
And I mean,
very soft.
I really can't give you a percentage,
but very soft.
I'm also seeing it in the things I see.
I'm getting the feel of it.
And we'll keep you up today.
And then there's the market.
The market just gave away $8 trillion.
That's our market.
And of course, that's fluid.
You can get it back.
$8 trillion.
Poof.
You know what $8 trillion is?
Buying power.
I heard one of the idiots today.
You know, the ones that refuse to be unbiased on Trump,
always given excuses.
Oh, but the lower income in middle class don't have that much stock.
It's just the wealthy.
Don't worry.
You know my two words to that, right?
Up yours.
Up yours.
Stop the excuses.
I got news for you.
Middle class is plenty of stock in many ways.
Lower income.
maybe less so
but they may just have
also but you know I think
the economy
over the last few years was
two parts
the market
and the government
well the government's definitely
in slowdown mode
which is good to see
the government's in slowdown mode
I repeat
which good to see
so that's one thing
that's
what about the wealth effect
So if it's the wealthy that has all the stocks and we just lost $8 trillion,
don't you think that maybe they're going to pull back?
I would think so.
So that is definitively something to watch very, very closely as we move forward.
And especially, listen carefully, if they do these tariffs,
we will have a contraction.
That is a major increase in taxes and uncertainty.
And that's the other problem I have with the president.
You cannot be the leader of the free world and change your freaking mind every three hours.
You cannot change your verbiage every six hours and leave no doubt that is exactly what is going on.
You can't have one of your trade advisors say one thing and another trade advisor say another thing.
It's insanity.
There is no discipline out of this administration.
on this whatsoever will keep you informed.
But our thought process is, for now,
we think that the low of today,
we think that's probably a low.
How's that?
Does that make any sense?
We don't think that low is going to get penetrated.
we could pull back but the norm would be to rally up a little bit from here finally and then we'll just address it on a day-to-day basis for you because we'll know a lot more on if we rally and how we rally how weak it is or how strong it is how long it lasts or not last that
jury is without a doubt still out.
And of course,
one other part of the equation
is this intra, ladies
and gentlemen, the intraday today
was just
freaking stunning.
Stunning.
I repeat,
the Dow at 945
was 366,
at 1020
was 392.
600 points off of that news. That turned out not to be news. After going to 39-2, 20 minutes later, it was 37-2.
You dropped 2,000 points in 20 minutes after rallying up 2,600 points. Not making this up.
And that's what happens after a very big drop. Other things. Bitcoin down big today.
A 7%.
Ethereum is crashed and the scumbag tout artists don't even bring up Ethereum to anymore, even though they touted you like crazy.
Oh, it's the major blockchain.
They don't bring it up anymore because it's crashed.
And I'm not getting any, you know, people emailing me to buy Bitcoin anymore through them.
We'll keep you informed on the Bitcoin if it keeps dropping from here.
but as we have said to you, we thought the Bitcoin was simply watch the NASDAQ.
The last NASDAQ bare market, which the NASDAQ was down 30-some odd percent, it dropped 75.
And we're not saying it's dropping 75 percent.
We're just telling you it's in a bearish phase also.
And where it stops, we don't know, but we'll keep you in form.
China roughed up overnight.
In fact, the Nick Hay, Japan was down 2644 points.
Let's call that about 8%.
And the Hangsang was down 3,000 points.
Damn.
22, down 13% overnight.
Have no clue what happens tonight.
Oh, and by the way, the Dax was down 852 points to 197.
So that's been hit also.
So world markets taken in the chin.
And again, where it stops, we don't know.
we heard two things out of the European Union today about being tough on the United States
and then another one saying, well, let's talk.
To me, it's about European Union and China.
Throw a little bit of Japan in there.
But the European Union and China are about 18 to 19 trillion GDP after them drops all the way down to 4 to 5 trillion,
which is Germany and Japan.
We're like 28, 29, 30 trillion depending on which rusty abacus.
you are using.
Yippee, yeah, yeah.
So,
we're just going to play it day by day.
On the radio show here slash podcast,
we will just walk you through,
guide you through,
not try to be any type of hero,
but you know we've nailed this for you
by telling you all these areas
that were in bad shape.
We even gave you the areas
that were holding up great until they creamed them on Friday.
And by the way, again today.
And that's all the defensive areas, the insurance, the consumer staples, the exchanges,
they even got waste management, the auto parts retail, which are defensive.
And not much left.
Lastly, you ready for this?
New Yearly lows on the New York and the NASDAQ 3,295, 1801 New York, New York,
1494 NASDAQ, that would be oversold.
Up next.
What else we got for you?
This is the one only investor's edge.
It's no use putting it off.
The best time for an underwear refresh is now.
Tommy John underwear is designed for a perfect fit that stays put all day.
Their zero-chafe thanks to four times more stretch than competing brands.
And their innovative horizontal quick-drop fly is a game.
Game changer. With over 30 million pairs sold, there are thousands of men out there more comfortable than you. Don't settle for less. Go to Tommyjohn.com for 25% off your first order with Code Comfort. That's Tommyjohn.com code comfort. Tommy John. Comfort perfected.
This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles.
on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination.
Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide.
The Capital One Venture X card.
What's in your wallet?
Terms apply, lounge access is subject to change.
See Capital One.com for details.
This episode is brought to you by Spreaker.
The platform responsible for a rapidly spreading condition known as podcast brain.
Symptoms include buying microphones you don't need,
explaining RSS feeds to confused relatives,
and saying things like,
I can't talk right now. I'm editing audio.
If this sounds familiar, you're probably already a podcaster.
The good news is Spreaker makes the whole process simple.
You record your show, upload it once, and Spreaker distributes it everywhere people listen.
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Even better, Spreaker helps you monetize your show with ads, meaning your podcast might someday pay for, well, more microphones.
Start your show today at Spreaker.com.
drinker because if you're going to talk to yourself for an hour, you might as well publish it.
You're listening to.
What are we waiting for?
Well, what are you waiting for?
One, two, ready, go.
Investors Edge with Gary Culper.
And welcome once again to Investor's Edge.
I just mentioned new yearly lows.
And by the way, a lot of things, even though they hit yearly lows this morning,
They're off the lows as the market rebound in a little bit.
Oh, by the way, the Dow was down about 350, S&P 12.
NASDAQ was up 15, NASDAQ 100 was up 33.
By the way, again, with five minutes to go in the market, the NASDAQ was down 125.
It's just stunning.
Transport's down 175.
Let's see.
The transports today, down 175.
They were down about 600, but they'd just been creamed.
The semiconductors were strong all day up 97, was down today, 30-minute, 300, was down 200, finished up 97, but they also have been creamed.
But that's part of why I think, because I'm a big believer technology leads, even in the short term, that A-Lo was put in today for the markets.
That's what I think.
and what we mean by that is is the lows of today
we can pull back to them
but we think they're sticking
for now
and we'll know more on what happens from here
if we bounce up enemically for a day
we're in trouble
you got that
I'll know a lot lot more
on how we bounce
what else today you had a little
better day for the financials, but they, well, let me put it best. Everything's been creamed.
There is really, as I was doing my scans, there was nothing left lame. Everything that was holding
up, as I said, they murdered. I mean, I couldn't believe what they did on Friday. Is there anything
sticking out relative strength? I must tell you that the dollar stores have relative strength
right now. But they're coming off big lows. They've been already crashed a long time ago.
But the dollar stores, and that should, you know, why, right? If we're having some economic
trouble here, dollar stores, discount retail. The TJX, they even got TJX the last two days,
but on a relative basis, holding up pretty well. They got the oils also. They've been, they got the
commodities. It's just a
fricking mess, ladies and gentlemen,
I wish I had better news.
And I have to tell you, and I have to say it,
I wish I knew it's in the president's head because
I got to tell you, I've never seen a point
in time where
well, I can't,
J. Powell printing to $9 trillion,
that was one man.
But I would suggest
President Trump has a little more,
has a little more oomph than
J. Powell, who, then again, did have
ump,
printing to $9 trillion.
I'd like to say there are news to talk about,
but just some things that help some are handling the tariffs.
Stalantis, they make the Jeep, I believe.
They're going to try and help suppliers handle the cost burden from tariffs.
So you're going to see a little bit of that going on.
We told you that was going to happen.
Some companies are going to try and pass it on.
some are not and some are going to try and work with the countries and if nothing gets done
and he means business call me even more worried this tariff thing is the most moronic economic policy
I have seen and I've studied the markets and everything going back forever they're also
considering something called an export a tax credit to
offset tariff risks.
And I'm thinking to myself,
how does that offset tariff risks?
I'm going to have to look that one up even more because that doesn't make sense.
I'm trying to make sense of things, ladies and gentlemen, and it's very tough.
What happens tomorrow, I don't know, except to say, I think a low.
I think a low.
You've been hearing from a lot of people, Bill Ackman, who I am,
I praise a bunch.
He's not happy anymore about the tariffs.
Most people in the know thought they weren't going to be this bad.
So he's out yapping about it.
And so are others.
People are worried about the execution.
Guess what?
That was me.
And I just have to say again,
our president of the United States come
out and said, well, sometimes you've got to take medicine. Boy, that pisses me off. Not for me, but for you.
I have people emailing me that have a lot of money in their retirement accounts, and they've just
seen them drop 20%. You know what that is? That's strife. That's maybe a couple hours of lack
asleep. And he's saying, oh, you just got to take your medicine. And it just,
I think I've covered it enough. Right. There's really not much else. I do know that the,
what is the NCAA thing tonight? I've had Florida this whole time and I'm still going to go with
them tonight. Just so you know some numbers, the Dow is down 10.8% this year. The S&P is down 13.9.
The S&P mid-cap 16.1, the Russell 2000, 18.8. The NASDAQ is down 19.2. That is this year. And I noticed that a lot of these areas have deeply penetrated the whole move. I saw some things. I believe the NASDAQ went back to the highs of the last bear market before bouncing today. And that could be a good technical place.
that could be a good technical place.
We'll see.
Earnings this week.
The things that stick out for me in earnings,
well, you got Delta.
That's not unimportant.
But on Friday, Black Rock, Bank of New York,
J.P. Morgan, Morgan Stanley, Wells Fargo.
All them have been blasted just like everything else.
We'll see.
Next week I gather Goldman and the Ruffman
and the rest of them, and we'll stay on top.
Know we're talking a little politics here.
It's for you, without any bias.
You have a great evening, drive carefully when you get home, do like we do, quite simple.
Make sure you hug your family.
Make sure you hug your children.
They will feel better.
You will feel better.
I promise.
Stay well, be well.
Always appreciate your listening.
Take care, everybody.
Good night.
This has been Investors Edge with Gary Cultbaum on BizTalk.
To listen to past episodes or to get in contact with Gary,
go to GaryK.com.
That's GaryK.com.
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