Investor's Edge with Gary Kaltbaum - Volcker.

Episode Date: August 26, 2022

Follow Gary on GaryK.com or http://garykaltbaum.com

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at all tastes like. Investor's Edge with Gary Coltbaum. Straight talk about you and your money. Now from the BizTalk Studios, here is Gary Cultbaum. And welcome once again to Investors Edge. I'm Gary Colbom, your host day. Thanks for being with us today. Glad you here, ladies and gentlemen, happy that you are listening. It's Friday, it's August 26, it's 2022.

Hope you're having a good day. Stop. Those that judiciously listen to this show those that have judiciously watched me on TV

as I am on Fox business every day in Fox News a couple of times a week those who have read my writings those that are part of the membership that we have on one of our businesses

No, that since Christmas of 2018, I use the words lovingly, whining and complaining to you. But really, it's me logically outlining what I have thought since that day, something that, that we never thought possible and our worries since that day have done nothing but picked up. The evidence since that day of trouble that lies ahead has shown themselves in droves. we outlined for you up front and in front what could possibly happen because of and everything has come to fruition. Unfortunately, we take no joy

and it's nothing personal. But we as Americans, it is incumbent upon us to hold people in power to account and we have warned. I can't even tell you how many times that one man, the most powerful man on earth, became unaccountable, with no oversight, with an ability to do things beyond the beyond, the beyond, the beyond of the beyond. And for us, it wasn't a reach. Christmas of 2018, into Christmas, the market was going into a bare market.

The economy was fine. Employment was fine. J. Powell was raising rates. Christmas Eve. he had one of his people come out to state that they could stop raising rates. We started worrying that day because he was not addressing an economy. He was addressing the markets. The market immediately bottomed and rallied and then started to correct again.

They announced that they were looking to lower rates, even though the economy was fine. The market rallied again. They lowered rates. Once that happened, the market dropped again. They lowered rates a second time and a third time. Not because of the economy, because of the markets, and it had us worried. Because a central banker should leave the markets the hell alone and not interfere. But that was no biggie. He was lowering rates. Not a biggie. But then the markets were correcting again.

He didn't lower rates again. In an interview, Jay Powell talked about printing money. And he said, but don't call it printing money. Don't call it quantitative easing, which was a lie. printing money the last time Ben Bernanke announced printing money it's because we were in the depths of hell

the financial system was buckling because of Ben Bernanke and the easy money policy that enabled massive ridiculous leverage and felonies committed by a bunch of people on Wall Street we bailed them out with our taxpayer dollars the people that committed felonies

not one was indicted They kept their jobs, became multi-billionaires. And that October, when Jay Powell announced that, we had several words to tell you. And that was buy the hell out of the market. He was printing money while the economy was fine. We knew at that point Jay Powell was an easy money maniac, a market maniac.

A man that decided to interfere with the free flow of trade and investing by investors and traders and institutions. At a certain time, at a certain price, at a certain size. Little did we know. The markets rallied into February. COVID hit. The market crashed. The economy shut down. Jay Powell did not trust the people of this country and the businesses of this country to get back on its feet.

He put on his cape and he lowered rates down to zero percent. Rightly or wrongly, because at that time, we really did not know what was going to go on. So we'll give him that out. we didn't whine and complain about him going to zero percent for the time being and then he announced a sizable amount of printing money the goal

was to get long grades down as much as possible in an emergency but then markets kept buckling he announced the second tranche of printing money and the markets kept buckling and then he announced

the gargantuan amounts of printing money got the European Central Bank to do the same and ultimately he took the amount of printing money up to $9 trillion dollars and most people it's just a number you'll have to believe me when I tell you

it was gargantuan unbelievable amounts beyond the beyond the beyond and markets reacted and that's when we really really really started to speak up and whine

and complain and warn of the Reaper of the most gargantuan interference in free markets in our history. By far, we warned of bubbles. We warned of distortions. We warned of inflation. We warned about it all.

About one man interfering with markets with $9 trillion and getting the length of The humming's around the globe to do the same. What happened next? This is the one only Investor's Edge. Hi, I'm Gary Kalbaum, hosted a nationally syndicated radio show Investors Edge. We're not just handsome radio people. We manage investors' money for a living, specializing in fee-based discretionary money management.

No big commissions, just a fee on the assets that's managed. We also provide a full range of personalized services, including retirement planning, fixed income, and education. needs, all to assist you in achieving your financial goals. Understanding not all individuals have the same needs, we'll carefully evaluate your personal goals to determine a proper investment strategy. If your current approach to investing is not getting you to where you would like to be, call us to make an appointment for a complementary portfolio review.

The number to call is 888-4-22-559. That's 8-8-5-59. That's 888-422-5-5-9. Investment Advisory Services offered through Colt Bomb Capital Management. Hi, I'm Dr. Jake Goodman, host of Beyond the Script, the podcast where I sit down with pharmacists to answer the health questions you didn't even know you could ask at the pharmacy counter. In this episode, we are diving into gut health with CVS pharmacist,

Victoria Motola, who explains why so many of us live with stomach issues we should not accept as normal. A lot of what I see is just like chronic bloating, chronic stomach aches. Like I get a stomachache every time that I eat. And it just becomes like a lifestyle where, oh, yeah, you know, I just have a stomach ache every day. Or I'm constantly feeling like gassy. And all of those things are not something that generally, if you have a healthy gut, you

should be living with. So that's when we deep dive. We deep dive into your medication. We deep dive into your OTC medication. And then at that point, we can put it. probably identify something that we can change. Hear the full conversation, plus some fascinating facts about how gut health affects so much more than just your stomach on Beyond the Script, a podcast from CVS Pharmacy and IHeart

Radio. Listen now wherever you get your podcasts. Enjoying a healthy dinner that tastes great means eating out at a pricey restaurant, right? Wrong. Healthy Choice Simply steamers are delicious and healthy. The trade Tray steam technology delivers crisp veggies and tender protein and tasty selections, like Healthy Choice Simply Steamers' grilled chicken and broccoli Alfredo. It's a satisfying meal with 28 grams of protein and nothing artificial. Healthy Choice Simply Steamers. What having it all tastes like.

It's time to switch on the integrator units and get the brain cells working. You're listening to. Hey, this promises to be fun. Investors Edge. The last bastion of quality programming. With Gary Coltbaum. It doesn't get better than this. Welcome once again to Investors Edge.

Nine trillion bucks into the market we simply said to you that's going to cause massive distortions. What were those distortions? Number one, price and yield. What do we mean by that? It's very simple. Junk bonds that were yield. He took down to yielding three and four and five percent should have been yielding nine. Price skyrocketed for bonds.

Yields dropped. What else did we warn you about? Up front, bubbles. And we didn't know what the bubbles were going to be. But bubbles. Always, throughout history, easy monetary policy creates bubbles. We had the real estate bubble in 08. Where do you think that came from? Easy monetary policy, Ben Bernanke.

And a lack of oversight. Inflation. How do we know inflation before anybody? $9 trillion. Go look up Economics 101. Too much money chasing nothing. So he created the bubbles. Where'd they come from?

Reddit? Robin Hood? Coins? Crappy companies. Short squeezes. No sales biotechs. One of the great cons of the last few decades SPACs.

Go look it up. 3D stocks, marijuana stocks, that went Eiffel Towerish, we got the bubbles. We got the SPACs. Crappy as crappy IPOs at ridiculous valuations, we warned you. We yelled at you. Rivian, after it goes public after a couple of days, $160 billion market cap, the same as GM and Ford put together. even though Rivian had no sales in GM and Ford had 260 billion in sales.

We told you Riviam was going to be worth 20 bucks, if not less. It's back to 32 right now and probably should be lower. The bubbles, they all popped. Massively. 90% drops. 100% drops in coins that nobody talks about. Go look where the Maristamwana stocks went, the 3D stocks. You name it. Boom, boom.

Boom, boom, boom, the bubbles popped. But that's no big deal because only a segment of the population. Owned the bubbles. No big deal. Though people got crushed. All from the greed that came from. $9 trillion of printed money. And we told you to read the book,

Extraordinary Popular Delusions in the Madness of Crowd. We've read it twice. It's a big book. But it was classic. And then inflation. Putin price hike? My ass. Supply chains?

My ass. The fuse was lit by one man. And the whims of one man. We told you a year and a half in advance. The other things just exacerbated it. And we also told you, told you, if it ever does happen inflation, it's very tough to roll it back. It's not that easy. How do we know this? History! So the bubbles pop and the market tops. And the valuation start

coming down because of the inflation. And what happens next? Hear no evil, see no evil, speak no evil. That's what happens next. So he screwed savers, bubbled up asset prices, distorted price and yield, created the greatest wealth inequality in the history of time, crushed calculators. Shall I continue? Should I tell you about the Austrian bond that came out? A 100-year bond, able to come out at 8 tenths of 1%. You know how freaking insane that is? Oh, that's only down 60-some-odd percent from when they came out.

Which means you have to go 100 years to get your money out. So the inflation hit. And we're on TV and telling you, just letting you know it's bad. And what's Jay Powell saying? There's no inflation. And then it worsened. What's Jay Powell saying?

And the administration saying, they come up with his word transitory. He, Janet Yellen, another misery. And the administration, transitory. And I'm thinking to myself, are these people nuts? And I emailed the administration through a middle person. Please tell them that J. Powell doesn't know what the hell he's talking about. And you need to get on this.

Three times I went through a middle person. three times it was ignored every time I went on TV it was ignored and then it finally hit no longer could they say it was transitory oops

and I don't need to get into what they said to back out of that because no matter what they said they look like the duffices that they were by the way again nothing personal but we're holding the most important important people on earth to account. So what happens? Well, they better get off these 0% interest rates.

They better get off this easy money because if that's what sowed the inflation, so what do they have to start doing? Oh, they have to start raising rates and stop the printing. Well, they raise rates, but slowly. And we wind and complained about that. And slowly, and slowly. But you know what wasn't waiting? The bond market. The bond market gave Jay Powell the middle finger as bonds dropped and interest rates started to skyrocket.

Screaming at him, yelling at him, dude, you better get with the game here! And he stayed slow. And inflation worsened even more. 9% inflation. and then all the sudden politics entered the fray. The administration got with them, even though they say it's independent, and made him see God.

Up next. What happened next? This is the one only investors' edge. Hi, I'm Dr. Jake Goodman, host of Beyond the Script, the podcast where I sit down with pharmacists to answer the health questions you didn't even know you could ask at the pharmacy counter. In this episode, we are diving into gut health with CVS pharmacist Victoria Motola, who explains why so many of us live with stomach issues we should not accept as normal. A lot of what I see is just like chronic bloating, chronic stomach aches.

Like I get a stomach ache every time that I eat. And it just becomes like a lifestyle where, oh, yeah, you know, I just have a stomachache every day. Or I'm constantly feeling like gassy. And all of those things are not something that generally, if you have a healthy gut, you should be living with. So that's when we deep dive. We deep dive into your medication. We deep dive into your OTC medication. And then at that point, we can probably identify something that we can change.

Hear the full conversation, plus some fascinating facts about how gut health affects so much more than just your stomach on Beyond the Script, a podcast from CVS Pharmacy and IHeart Radio. Listen now wherever you get your podcasts. Enjoying a healthy dinner that tastes great means eating out at a pricey restaurant, right? Wrong. Healthy Choice Simply steamers are delicious and healthy. The Tray-in-Tray steam technology delivers crisp veggies and tender protein and tasty selections, like Healthy Choice Simply Steamers grilled chicken and broccoli alfredo. It's a satisfying meal with 28 grams of protein and nothing artificial.

Healthy Choice Simply Steamers. What having it all tastes like. OnDec is built to back small businesses like yours. Whether you're buying equipment, expanding your team, or bridging cash flow gaps, OnDex loans up to $400,000 help make it happen fast. Rated A-plus by the Better Business Bureau and earning thousands of five-star trust pilot reviews, OnDec delivers funding you can count on. Apply in minutes at ondac.com.

Depending on certain loan attributes, your business loan may be issued by OnDec or Celtic Bank. On Deck does not lend in North Dakota. All loans and amount subject to lender approval. We're listening to. America is talking. Investors Edge. He's got to be pleased with that. The crowd is just on his feet here.

He's a Cinderella boy. With Gary Colbomb. It comes highly recommended. You're going to feel better if you talk to him. And welcome once again to Investors Edge. So, if the easiest monetary policy in history made the market skyrocket, rolling it back was going to do what? The opposite.

And we were able to, for all of you, to tag the highs. Because little by little piece by piece, inch by inch, everything topped out, the bubbles popped. And the market broke down, and we went through the process of a pretty darn good bear market and a vicious bear market for growth stocks, because they have the most leveraged towards easy money and not easy money. So Jay Powell started raising rates and raising rates, but he was still way behind, and as of today, he's still way behind. He's a 2.2% Fed funds rate. I believe the two-year yield is at 3.3%. So he can raise 1% and he's just catching up with the real world.

By the way, you know what the real world is. That's your mortgage payments. That's the real world, not Jay Powell. So he's playing catch-up. So the market gets in trouble. He raises rates, raises rates more, raises rates more. But he promised to roll back his what they call balance sheet. That's all the printing of money.

But doesn't. He hardly has done any of that. To roll that balance sheet off, what you actually have to do is sell into the open market bonds. You have to get rid of them. And that hasn't even happened yet, but yields backing up. Oil prices staying elevated, though off the highs, which is normal to come down. We had Eiffel Tower moves and commodities. And then there was belief that, hey, Jay Powell's going to pivot.

He's going to back away. He's going to slowboat this. And the markets had one of those great counter-trend bare market rallies. where many thought and think, oh, this is the bottom. Others believe otherwise, and what do we say to you? We'll let the cards come out of the deck,

but there's still a clear lack of leadership in the markets. And he's still behind. Something to worry about. Recently, we started pulling back in the markets as yield started backing up again, which has been the norm. Today, Jay Powell was in Jackson, in holes and surprised the living crap out of the markets. Let me explain. Talking as he was the

second coming of Paul Volker. The short shrift on Volker came in as a central banker, the fight to live in hell out of inflation and raise rates as much as possible, induced one hell of a recession, and then eventually we came out of it. What is the difference? Back then we didn't have 30 trillion of debt. Back then, we didn't have massive leverage, bubbles, overvaluations in the market. Remember, we've been telling you the market's still very overvalued from historic perspective. Jay Powell today, and I quote, while higher interest rates, slower growth and softer labor market conditions will bring down inflation,

they will also bring some pain to households and businesses. These are the unfortunate costs of reducing inflation, but a failure to restore far greater pain, so the man who couldn't give a crap about price, now only cares about price stability. The man who caused the inflation, lit the fuse on inflation, is all of a sudden now the biggest inflation fighter on earth, talking like Volker did.

And what do you think the markets are going to do on a person that listened carefully? just went coast to coast from the easiest monetary policy central banker in the history of the world times a bazillion to the tightest. The market wrap is brought to by Investment-Models.com. That's Jim Rohrabach, one of the great market timers. No gray areas with the man you're either in or out of the market. It's proprietary indicators. Go check it out. Investment-mottles.com. Here's what happens. S&P down 141, the NASDAQ down 497, the NASDAQ 100 down 538, transports down 57, you know what advanced declines did, you know what up-down volume did? Therein lies the worry.

The man is unwinding the distortions he created because what's the one thing I warned you about? The day that this man is forced to. Believe me, he's not doing this because he wants to. This has him kicking and screaming and being dragged to do it. Forced to be Paul Volcker. And you see the outcome today. The major indices were turned back at the long-term 200-day moving average in the last few days and now in roll-over mode in a bad way today.

and as you know I am one to never take one day and say one day today was one day we came into today in our fully managed accounts 10% invested we're now zero percent and we don't usually say those things because we can change on Monday we're just letting you know go into the weekend I have yet to do my scans for the weekend

but I don't believe much many stones were unturned today. They came after pretty much everything. And to add in, we hear the Department of Justice is going to file a lawsuit against Apple. So Apple was down $7.7.00, which, by the way, 7 times 16, 7 times 7,000, that's $112 billion a market cap taken off of Apple today. In case you didn't know. J. Powellitis has now hit.

fully in a market that the technical condition is not good with just some nascent leadership showed up and probably that'll start coming in hard and we'll keep watching that nascent leadership and he's doing this listen carefully we already had two quarters of down GDP consumers that we now have skyrocketing credit card usage while savings rates plunging housing has topped and i believe meaningfully europe that is in big big trouble china the economic numbers are terrible to the point where they've had to ease policy recently so mr wrong way is doing the things opposite of what you would do at this point in time. Remember, in recession, central banks are supposed to ease monetary policy. Instead, they're forced to do the opposite.

And therein lies today's market reaction. Of course, this is not just one man, but he's the head honcho, top dog big cheese, with the lemmings around the globe and the morons in D.C. You know what I think of all of them in both parties. We can't stand any of them. Almost $31 trillion of debt says so. Up next, we'll tie in ugly bow tie around this, take into the weekend. Sorry, we're just reporting the news.

This is the one only investor's edge. Hi, I'm Dr. Jake Goodman, host of Beyond the Script, the podcast where I sit down with pharmacists to answer the health questions you didn't even know you could ask at the pharmacy counter. In this episode, we are diving into gut health with CVS pharmacist Victoria Motola, who explains why so many of us live with stomach issues we should not accept as normal. A lot of what I see is just like chronic bloating, chronic stomach aches. Like, I get a stomachache every time that I eat.

And it just becomes like a lifestyle where, oh, yeah, you know, I just have a stomach kick every day. Or I'm constantly feeling like gassy. And all of those things are not something that generally, if you have a healthy gut, you should be living with. So that's when we deep dive. We deep dive into your medication. We deep dive into your OTC medication.

And then at that point, we can probably identify something that we can change. Hear the full conversation, plus some fascinating facts about how gut health health affects so much more than just your stomach on Beyond the Script, a podcast from CVS Pharmacy and IHeart Radio. Listen now wherever you get your podcasts. Enjoying a healthy dinner that tastes great means eating out at a pricey restaurant, right? Wrong. Healthy Choice Simply Steamers are delicious and healthy. The tray-and-tray steam technology delivers crisp veggies and tender protein and tasty selections. Like Healthy Choice Simply Steaming Steamer's grilled chicken and broccoli alfredo.

It's a satisfying meal with 28 grams of protein and nothing artificial. Healthy choice simply steamers. What having it all tastes like. On Deck is built to back small businesses like yours. Whether you're buying equipment, expanding your team, or bridging cash flow gaps, On Deck's loans up to $400,000 help make it happen fast. Rated A-plus by the Better Business Bureau and earning thousands of five-star trust pilot reviews, On Deck delivers funding.

you can count on. Apply in minutes at on deck.com. Depending on certain loan attributes, your business loan may be issued by on deck or Celtic bank. On deck does not lend in North Dakota. All loans and amount subject to lender approval. You're listening to. What are we waiting for? Well, what are you waiting for? One, two, ready, go. Action! Investers Edge with Gary Culper. And welcome once again to Investors Edge. We deal in reality here. We don't deal. and fluff. We hit your right between the eyes, good or bad. We take no joy in ripping the stuffings out of politicians, central bankers, and anybody else who's doing wrong to the American people. Sorry. Those you are on the left that love the left, sorry. Those you on the right that

love the right, sorry. We lost all of years ago. 31 trillion of debt says so. brought on by all of them. Those of you love Trump, guilty. Those of you love Biden, guilty. Biden's lying out his ass right now. We lowered the deficit $1.7 trillion. That's a lie. Blatent, blatant, blatant, blatant, blatant lie. In fact, if you tied him to a lie detector test that would give him some electric shock, his hair would be standing up. All that is, is we spent massive amounts for COVID and we brought that down. That's all that's going on here. He's a liar. Trump wrote the book online.

Oh, easy to cut the deficit and the debt. Yeah, seven trillion later. Obama lied. Bush lied. Bernanke enabled it. Yellen enabled it. And Powell supersized it. the enabling. And here are a few thoughts. Just a few thoughts. Number one, markets live in different

environments. Is it an easy money policy or a tight money policy? We went coast to looks like coast now. The easiest in history, by far, off the charts, to be the, a massive, at least in words, tightening policy. Now the next thing to watch, and I'll report to you, is he going to roll back the balance sheet, which he's lied about. He hasn't done it. We're told they're going to do $95 billion a month in rolling off that balance sheet, and we don't know how he's going to be able to do that. Next, again, I have to repeat, normally right now, Jay Powell would be lowering rates and printing more money. He's doing the opposite, and therein lies our big warning to you.

What happens if he's forced to do the unthinkable? And that's roll back everything because of the inflation that he lit the fuse on. Let's add a few more things. This administration just raised taxes into a declining economy in a declining housing market. insanity sheer insanity little do they know but what's to expect from Joe Biden who is voted for 30 and a half trillion of a 31 trillion of debt I'm not surprised from here well first off number one we finish very poorly today institutions were selling today what's in front of us is the 50-day moving average for the major indices. The NASDAQ at 11943. For the S&P, 3996. For the Dow,

32-3-4. That better hold. It's the best way I can put it. That better hold. And I'll leave my market comments at that. No, I got to give you one more line. If it doesn't hold, yeah, I must give you the next line. If that doesn't hold, institutions will recognize it, see it, and lop off some more. To what extent we don't know, you got a decent amount of room down towards the lows of June. Actually, I take that back. Well, 12%, that's a decent amount. And there is the Genesis.

And what have we been saying to you on the show? And again, with no joy. Jay Powell is like a doctor you went to for a broken right arm, and he puts a cast on your left arm. None of these people at the Central Bank know what they're doing. They are reactives. They are not proactive. They amazingly get statistics a million times more than I get. And we nailed this.

and they can't get it right. Do you know what they were out there saying today? Oh, we don't think we're going into recession. What world are these people living in? They don't think we're going into recession? Don't they see the charts of savings rates plunging, credit card usage skyrocketing, housing prices dropping, inventory skyrocketing,

and people took a lot out of their houses and the elevated prices in the last year or two? You know why they say this? because the job market. You know what the problem is? What do you think happens late in the cycle? During the cycle, eventually it hits jobs. Do they not even know that?

How is it I know that? Or are they just BSing us? Hmm. So I have no clue about Monday except to say bad finish today. Write those numbers down on the 50-day moving average. hopefully they hold. I'm a state for the record.

I worry that it won't hold. If it doesn't hold, institutions recognize it. And just remember the other part here. All these institutions are going to have meetings this weekend about all this. And recognize that this guy went from the easiest monetary policy and history times a bazillion to the Paul Volker. And if you don't know about Volker, please read up. and markets cannot be thrilled. So bad day.

Wish I had better news. Really, I do. We'd rather have markets go up, not the other way around. We'll have a big webcast over the weekend. GaryK.com, check it out. Until Monday, you have a great weekend. Drive carefully.

Monday, I'll be on with Charles Payne, 2 p.m. Fox Business. When you get home, do like we do. Really make sure you hug your children. Thanks for joining us, everybody. Bye-bye. This has been Investors' Edge with Gary Cult Bomb on BizTalk. To listen to past episodes or to get in contact with Gary, go to GaryKK.com. That's GaryK.com.

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