Investor's Edge with Gary Kaltbaum - Walz [08.06.2024]

Episode Date: August 6, 2024

https://garykaltbaum.com/

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Investor's Edge with Gary Cultbaum. Straight talk about you and your money. Now from the BizTalk Studios, here is Gary Cultbaum. And welcome once again to Investors Edge. I'm Gary Colbom, your host. A thanks for being with us today. Glad you here, ladies and gentlemen, happy that you're listening. No, really, very happy that you are listening.

It is Tuesday. It is August 6th. It is 2024. and we're here to talk about the psychotic markets and everything that has to do with the psychotic markets and what's going on. We will cover it all because, boy, oh boy, we had a lot of inquiries today, ladies and gentlemen. Not only do we have inquiries on that, a vice presidential selection today. And I'll have some commentary on that also because ladies and gentlemen, there's a binary. choice come November.

And I have coined it, the Ebola virus versus the bubonic plague. But on the economy, I think there's two very, very wide chasms between the proposals. We'll cover them every day with no bias agenda, ulterior motive. We always say up front, we wish there were two other people running. But, hey, there's nothing we can do about that. And in case you don't know, this is serious talk on everything that has affect you. And of course, the election is going to affect us because the Morlocks in D.C. on a daily basis are doing more and more and more to take over our lives. And we'll do the markets, the economy, and all kinds of other crap.

And if you'd like to email me, just be nice. That's all you've got to do is be nice. And the simple reason why, we're nice right back. And respectful. Can disagree with us a thousand percent? We're going to respect you back. Unless you like Hamas. Unless you're a criminal.

Unless you're a racist. We don't put up with any of that crap. Okay. So, yesterday we started the show. I think we said something to the effect of the bad news was the NASDAQ was down 500 and something but the good news is it was down a thousand

the bad news is the Dow was down 1,000 but it was down 1,200 was the good news which is not that great, the NASDAQ bounce better. We're going to do the opposite today. The good news the good news was the Dow finished up 294 points?

We'd call it a further bounce. The bad news is the Dow was up 750 points today and only finished up 294. The good news is the NASDAQ finished up 166. The bad news is at one time today the NASDAQ was up $4.5.5%. So yesterday, after a vicious gap to the downside, institutions or whoever defended price, we would suggest on the NASDAQ and NASDAQ 100 at a very important level, what we call the 200-day moving average.

It's a long-term moving average that very much gets defended or else. today we would suggest, and let me be clear and concise about it, the selling today occurred in the final hour. That's institutions. So unlike yesterday where they defended today, after bouncing up, they sold. Tomorrow, I have absolutely no freaking clue. 0. Just like we had no clue today. I didn't know we'd be up 7.50 and finish up 294. I didn't know the NASDAQ would be up 4.50 and finish up 1616.16.16.00. And by the way, the NASDAQ opened up, I think, 100. And then it was down 50 like in a few minutes and then pop right back up. If memory serves me right today. Yeah, that's right. NASDAQ opened up real quickly 16-3-2-6. And before you know, it was 16-1-40. Here's what I do know. Near term. Now, we're in a downtrend.

And the reason we bounced in the last couple of days, how do I say this best? The reason we bounced is because the Dow, and I'm not making this crap up, drop 2,597 points in three days. Oh, excuse me, I take it back. Two days and a gap to the downside yesterday. 2597 points from the high of Thursday to the open yesterday.

So of course you're going to bounce. You don't know where, but 2,597 points. Typically, you'll do something like that. The NASDAQ from that same time frame, 17791 to 15708. 2,083 points in two days and it open. So of course you're going to bounce. Partly yesterday, partly today, though the finish today was less than stellar. Which again leads me to say, I have absolutely no clue what happens tomorrow.

I just been telling myself and telling my peeps. I'd just be careful. Excuse the little less than stellar language. This is a market that's looking to piss off everybody. And if you're not careful, you are waiting in quicksand. I must tell you as somebody who's constantly looking backwards, constantly critiquing myself, I wish I bought the Open yesterday, but they didn't give you time. What do I mean and why do, as I look backwards, but I can't really blame myself too much.

And let me explain, yesterday on the Open, we had this big gap to the downside. a thousand and something on the Dow, a thousand on the NASDAQ, which is insane. And we have something called the VIX. And I know you hear about it, but let me explain what it is in layman's terms. It's called the volatility index. And when it skyrockets,

and I mean Eiffel Towers, that means everybody's crapping in their pants. Excuse the language again, but sometimes you have to be a little picturesque. at the same time the VIX was massively higher than the Eiffel Tower and the Seattle

Wuchmadugi needle above the Eiffel Tower and that's what the VIX did and man I really thought that was an opportune time for somebody like me that was out just to do some probing and I was thinking about it but it didn't let me think

and I say that do you know what happened within five minutes yesterday on the open, within five minutes on the open, they rammed the market. With the Dow opening, let's call it about 15-7, it was 16-1 within 20 minutes. And at that point, you're saying,

I'm not buying anything, the NASDAX's already up 400 points in a big downtrend. And of course, and that's 400 points after drop in a thousand. Of course, we settled down the rest of the day, but gapped up again today. So it was really tough. So I kind of cursed myself out in my little book,

and then I said, but I can't be too mad at myself. That's what I said, because sometimes they just don't let you in because of how quick. So, no biggie. No sweat. So today we had an opposite day. Institutions defended into the close yesterday off the massive gap.

I take that back. Institutions defended at the open yesterday. And institutions, they jumped on things on the open today and couldn't hold it today. We'll see what Tamar brings. But let me be big picture. We had a big drop. And I'm always asking the question, why? And why so bad?

And then I'm also, why is everybody so sanguine? Notice the big word from your host, handsome and buffed. Sanguine. Didn't see any bears out yesterday or today. And there's some bears out there, but I didn't see any. Up next. I'll tell you what I heard. And then we have a vice presidential candidate on the left.

We'll talk about that. I'm Gary. This is one only Investor's Edge. Hi, I'm Gary Kalbaum, hosted a nationally syndicated radio show Investors Edge. We're not just handsome radio people. We manage investors' money for a living, specializing in fee-based discretionary money management. No big commissions, just a fee on the assets that's managed.

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They're right by you. It's time to switch on the integrator units. get the brain cells working. You're listening to. Hey, this promises to be fun. Investors Edge. The last bastion of quality programming. With Gary Coltbaum.

It doesn't get better than this. Yo, welcome once again to Investor's Edge. So let me skip a little bit. Just so you know what I do daily now, what ain't going down? What's holding up like a rock? What's showing great relative strength? Though we know, we absolutely know, if there's more to go on the downside, they ain't going to hold them up either.

I have a list of about 10 names that really show great relative strength. I have a smattering of a few other names, maybe 20 or 30, that are not great, but good. And then the rest sucks. way down way down in their drops not so way down in their drops but still decently down so I'm really able right now

to isolate the heck out of this market knowing that even the strength will get smoked if we have even more downside or if we go into a real bare market and that would mean the 200 day gets taken out and everything all hell breaks loose

I'm loath to give out those names yet on radio. My peeps know the names. I have this little membership thing. Let me state for the record is about 10. We'll see how it goes. Here's the problem with giving them out. One of the stocks is an $1,800 stock and was up $75 today. but finished only up 34 when the market came in.

One of them is a almost $800 stock. It was up 34 today but only finished up 11. So I just don't think they're ready. And again, if they come after the market, again, let's hope not, they'll get them too. So the sore thumbs really show themselves right now, and that's when we're at our best. You know our mottoes. It's easiest to isolate strength with the markets at weakest or weak. It's easiest to isolate weakness when the market's really strong.

And right now, of course, it's the former, not the latter. And of course, there's a ton more earnings to come out, but we've really gone through a lot of the big ones, but there's still more. After the close today's Amgen and the Dow, Airbnb. That's an important name. I see Reddit wins resorts. A few others. Anyway, what else today that I noticed? The Sox, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index, hit 4683, up 164 points. It finished up 488. It finished up 488. So after a nice little reversal in NASDAQ yesterday and a nice pop today, already they couldn't hold the move.

Well, I'm not ready to answer that question yet because for all I know, they gap it back up tomorrow, for all I know. All I can tell you, though, boy, things are way down. And dang, as I said earlier, there's no bears out there. Here's what I heard today and yesterday. It's just a correction. Yeah, sure. Tell that to people that own Micron.

You got to be a buyer when things are on sale. I heard that today. When things are on sale. The question is, but at what price is the sale in the market? If something goes 100 down to 80, you can say it's on sale, but if it goes to 60, that's why I hate when I hear that. You see, when you go to the store and the shirt that goes for 50 bucks is 40, it's on sale. Cool.

Maybe it goes a little bit lower, but it's not going to affect you if tomorrow it's 35. Yeah, but what about, well, you get my point. Markets a little bit different. Yet, that's what the clowns tell us. So for all we know, they gap it back up tomorrow. I'm not against that. But lost some steam today. There'll be more reports coming out.

We'll see how that goes. There's this Japan thing that's going on also. And if you want to know what the Japan thing's going on instead of me explaining, just go look up the Japan carry trade. and read up what's been going on and why Japan dropped 25% in a couple of days. And I think Japan, by the way, was up 10% last night. And as you know, the worry of Japan is the same worry I have here, massive debt. The government buying up their stocks.

I think they own 50 or 60% of their freaking market. And the government keeping rates at 0% artificially. You know what that led to here? And I'm also just seeing just a lot of touting. A hell of a lot of touting, ladies and gentlemen. Touting up the wazoo, they're out and droves again on the AI this, AI that, AI this, AI that. Even after the close today, they're touting left and right. They're out big time on NVIDIA after the close.

It's up four bucks in the aftermarket. That's how they do it. And we'll see. Tomorrow's another day. but just another not so great finish, but we're not in any camp now that they're going to ram this thing back down so quickly and so easily.

If anything changes, we will let you know. Seeing a few things move in the aftermarket, let's see what I got for you. Well, SMCI is up 100 bucks in the aftermarket from 616 to 716. That's what's moving in VVIDIA. The problem with SMCI is it just dropped from 960. and 1229 back in March,

I'll look at those numbers after the close or after Dumwit Radio. So stay tuned. What I say at the beginning? I'll use different verbiage. They're not going to make it easy. They're not going to make it easy. We'll be spending our days looking for the sore thumbs and hoping better days ahead.

Up next. What else we got for you? We got plenty. Oh yeah. A vice president. We're trying to be. It's the one only investor's edge. It's no use putting it off.

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The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply, lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details. This episode is brought to you by Spreker. The platform responsible for a rapidly spreading condition known as podcast brain. Symptoms include buying microphones you don't need. explaining RSS feeds to confused relatives, and saying things like,

Sorry, I can't talk right now, I'm editing audio. If this sounds familiar, you're probably already a podcaster. The good news is Spreaker makes the whole process simple. You record your show, upload it once, and Spreaker distributes it everywhere people listen. Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and about a dozen apps your cousin swears are the next big thing. Even better, Spreaker helps you monetize your show with ads, meaning your podcast might someday pay for, well, more Microsoft. microphones. Start your show today at spreeker.com. Spreaker, because if you're going to talk to

yourself for an hour, you might as well publish it. We're listening to America is talking. Investors Edge. He's got to be pleased with that. The crowd is just on his feet here. He's a Cinderella boy. With Gary Coltbaum. It comes highly recommended. You're going to feel better if you talk to him. And welcome once again to Investors Edge. So just letting you know, As I have told you here, I don't have 100 analysts work for me like the Fed has or some of these big gargantuan funds. But I'm pretty damn logical.

And I got a pretty decent air to the ground in that through my years, I've just been able to, luckily, meet up and know people in different industries. and I also have a radio show where every now and then I'll ask, tell me about your industry, let me know what's going on, tell me what you do for a living, and tell me what you're seeing. And we get a lot of information, but we check on everything. One of the areas that we have been told

has been magnificent is the airlines and travel. I have to tell you, just from my looking and feeling and seeing I'm not going to say it's falling off the ledge I'm just saying

I think there's some trouble there and not because they just sank Marriott big time though they said what they're able to charge has been coming down but I'm seeing it elsewhere

and I just get a decent feel. And I don't have any inside information. I don't have any line into any CEO. And by the way, a CEO cannot tell me anything, and I would not accept anything anyhow. But I'm just letting you know, and we'll see how it goes. Not so sure about trouble. By the way, Super Micro came out with earnings that were $1.87 worse than expected,

but they're raising consensus going forward. We're supposed to believe them going forward when they missed by three miles. What a concept. Anyway, it was up 110. It's only up 70 right now as they're going to have to go through those numbers. And here goes Airbnb.

Are you ready? Airbnb stock closed at 130. It's 112 in the aftermarket. And you know what Airbnb does. And the stock is down from 170 in March. I'll have to go through those numbers. Remember how hotels, Airbnb, their business is the more people can go to their hotels, the more they're able to have firm pricing and charge.

The less people, they have to try and attract people. And what they do is they start feeling out pricing. But when they lower prices, less the profits. So I've got to find it hopefully somewhere else. Just letting you know. Airbnb stock, by the way, since July 4th, 155, 113 in the aftermarket right now. And again, I have yet to see what they said. We'll do that after the show.

So just giving you an idea how hard we work at this. And that's why we're so insistent when we tell you something here, we do our legwork. And when we tell you about the food at Publix and tell you that the potato chip bags, the big bags now are the old smaller bags. Do you know when I go on my flight with Delta now, we get sun chips? they're like infant size, not big size. The party size chips are like about 30% what they used to be, and pricing the same. Now that's small potatoes, no pun intended, but that's just like everything.

And therein lies the worry on the consumer front. and that's why I'm so pissed off at Biden because just remember they said inflation was transitory then when they look like idiots they called it with the Putin price hike and then the price came down they said look what we're doing and then price went up and they said oh well it's the Putin bright you get my point they suck but they're for the people you know that right they're for you

while they're wanting to raise taxes on all of you. So we'll keep your breast of the situation, but today's finish was the opposite of yesterday. I have no idea what tomorrow does. I said an aftermarket again. SMCI was up 110. It's only up 55 right now, so futures initially went up a little bit.

They're pulling back right now. I'm talking NASDAQ type. They had Nvidia moving up a few bucks, so now it's come. We'll see how it goes overnight. That's all. And now, you know what I've got to do every night now is watch Japan. Down 25% up 10 in four days.

And just so you know how that works. Started 100 bucks down 25. That takes you to 75. Now 75 up 10, that's a 7.5. You're still at 82.5. You're still down 17.5% from that position. And as we stated to you, the problem with Japan is the government just runs the joint. in ways not good. And remember, most of these people that run the government, all they do is take

out another credit card with a higher credit limit to pay for the last one and make them, hopefully look themselves good, and you keep voting them in. It's all Biden is done. Trump did it. Obama did it. Bush did it. The only difference is Biden said, screw this. this, I'm just going to supersize the hell out of it. And he did. And now the calls going forward, nightmarish. Absolutely nightmarish. Which takes me into the election. Well, the Kamala Harris can't select the Jew, can't piss off the anti-Semites. that are in Washington, D.C., like Warren and AOC and the squad, and Bernie, who's Jewish, that loathes Jews and Israel.

Yeah, there's some of them out there. So the one they should have picked, the Jew from Pennsylvania, because they must win Pennsylvania. They don't pick them. they went into Minnesota a leftist stronghold that they're going to win and picked another leftist

now does it matter no his last name's Waltz couldn't give a crap I read a few things don't like what he did during the riots he's anti some things I don't like but he doesn't matter

unless he becomes president. What matters is Kamala Harris. And what's our first big decision? Screw the Jews, not picking one. That's her first big decision. Politically, got to be on the side of the anti-Semites in the Democratic Party. The chalk, the easy pick, the smart pick, because you need Pennsylvania to win in these very popular in Pennsylvania. I'm not picking a Jew. And that's that. That was today. I don't care about him. I don't care about J.D. Vance. We only care if the president, you know, becomes incapacitated or whatever and they become president. But they don't win elections. J.D. Vance is not going to win or lose the election. This guy, Waltz, is not going to win or lose the election. Vice presidents do not move the needles at all, except if you're a lot.

in the most important state in order to win the presidency. So up next, their proposals will rehash and you get to decide. This is the one and only investors' edge.

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comfortable than you. Don't settle for less. Go to Tommyjohn.com today for 25% off your first order with code comfort. That's Tommyjohn.com code comfort. Tommy John. Comfort perfected. This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply. Lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details. This episode is brought to you by Sprecker. The platform responsible for a rapidly spreading

condition known as podcast brain. Symptoms include buying microphones you don't need, explaining RSS feeds to confused relatives, and saying things like, sorry, I can't talk right now, I'm editing audio. If this sounds familiar, you're probably already a podcaster. The good news is Spreaker makes the whole process simple. You record your show, upload it once, and Spreaker distributes it everywhere people listen. Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and about a dozen apps your cousin's swears are the next big thing. Even better, Spreaker helps you monetize your show with ads, meaning your podcast might

someday pay for, well, more microphones. Start your show today at spreeker.com. Sprinker, because if you're going to talk to yourself for an hour, you might as well publish it. You're listening to. What are we waiting for? Well, what are you waiting for? One, two, ready, go. Action!

In the Wester's Edge. With Gary Culper. By the way, on one little note, Josh Shapiro The governor of Pennsylvania Who should have been the pick Was trying to un-Jewish himself In the last couple of days

When he wasn't sure if he's going to be picked Oh well I was joining the IDF But I was only 20 years old And I was really not Jackass Anyway Our motto stands We can't stand any of them

they're all pretty much nauseating at this point in time we only care about three words and we the people is those three words I really as I've said to you before and I really mean this by the way this is not I really wish I took a different path and I really wish I was really in contention to win the presidency because I you look you look here's what we should want out of a president number one defend the country

number two defend the citizenry number three defend the country number four defend the citizenry that's the most important that's the number one job the number one job number two

create conditions for all to excel and then get the hell out of the way How hard is that? Keep your taxes low. Do not have onerous regulations. And if you want to know what onerous regulations mean, go look at California.

Mandates, rules, fees and fines. Put them to the side. Taxes, not crazy. And when you hear the words from them about the wealthy do not, pay their fair share. Let me give you what they're really saying. Those of you that want to become wealthy, we don't want you to become wealthy. We want you to have to kiss our arse in order to win your vote. So we're going to keep you down by raising taxes along the whole stream up. So how do you become wealthy if they raise taxes every time you move up in life? Just remember.

that. High taxes do not affect the already wealthy. It prevents the middle class from becoming wealthy. So when you hear fair share from these people, remember who they are. And then shut up.

Imagine that. And last but not least, government. It's okay to have government. We're good. But how is it possible that federal spending just the year before COVID was 4.4 trillion. With COVID was 6.5 trillion.

All that spending for COVID and our spending now just a couple of years after is more than the COVID years. How is that possible? And all that extra spending is debt. How is it possible? Because leftist control freak maniacs

like a Biden, did it. But unfortunately, the Republican side signed it. And the moderate Joe Manchin was the last guy that put it over the top. You know, the moderate Joe Manchin. Do you know how you stop deficits? Just stop government from going up every year. Do you know we have a $25 trillion economy now? Do you know a few years ago was 20? We keep going up, but every time we go up a dollar, they go up a buck 50. And it never ends. As president, I stop spending in its tracks. I start pulling back and watch the surpluses roll in federally. Don't believe them. Oh, it's because of just Social Security and Medicare.

They're lying. They're making it up. Joe Biden, $380 billion given to John Podesta Democratic hack for climate. They spent $7 billion on charging stations. There's seven of them. It would be so easy. And I'm really contemplating, getting a hold of Trump if he wins. Donald, I don't want to be official anything, but let me sit down and show you.

how easy it is to balance the budget, just stop raising the size of government every year and let the economy flourish and watch what happens. They will love you to death. That's all. That's the story. And Kamala Harris is the exact opposite. Wants to raise long-term capital gains from 20 to 44, disincentivizing holding assets more than a year. They want unrealized capital gains.

Unrealized. You own things. You didn't sell. You're paying tax if you're up at the end of the year. If you don't have the money, then you force to sell. They're insane. They want to roll back to Trump tax cuts. It sunsets anyhow, but they can stop it.

And then they lie. Oh, it's only 400,000 high. It's a lie. You can't piecemeal getting rid of a bill. It's everybody. So you Aunt Mary and Uncle Bob that make 50 grand a year, you're getting a tax hike. They have floated a wealth tax. You die, you're paying taxes.

Federally, you're paying taxes. One of those states, you're paying taxes. One of those cities, you're paying taxes. You're in California. You got that big butt gas tax. But now let's have a wealth tax. Oh, you're worth how many millions? Oh, you're going to pay us a percent extra every year.

Tough. This is the stuff we're going to be addressing. until the election. And we're not going to opinionize. We're going to give you the facts. Anyway, we have no clue about how we open tomorrow. It's a crazy market. Take care.

Be smart. Don't be crazy. We'll keep you in touch. You have a great evening. Drive carefully when you get home. Do like we do. It's quite simple. Make sure you hug your family.

Make sure you hug your grandson. If you have a new one, peace out all. Serenity now. Bye, bye. This has been Investors' Edge, with Gary Cult Bomb on BizTalk. To listen to past episodes or to get in contact with Gary,

go to GaryK.com. That's GaryK.com. Guys, it's no use putting it off. The best time for an underwear refresh is now. Tommy John Underwear is designed for a perfect fit that stays put all day. Their zero chafe thanks to four times more stretch than competing brands,

and their innovative horizontal quick draw fly is a game changer. With over 30 million pairs sold, there are thousands of men out there more comfortable than you. Don't settle for less. Go to Tommyjohn.com today for 25% off your first order with Code Comfort. That's Tommyjohn.com code comfort. Tommy John. Comfort perfected. This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect.

Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step close, to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply. Lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details.