Investor's Edge with Gary Kaltbaum - Washout? [03.04.2025]
Episode Date: March 4, 2025https://garykaltbaum.com/...
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Investor's Edge with Gary Coltbaum. Straight talk about you and your money. Now from the BizTalk
Studios, here is Gary Cultbaum. And welcome once again to Investor's Edge. I'm Gary Colbom,
your host. Thanks for being with us today. Glad you here, ladies and gentlemen, happy that you
are listening. It is Tuesday, March 4th, 2000, 25. We hope you're having a good day.
the market was having a very bad day, was turning into a fabulous washout day, and then a rug pull at the close, which will have for you in just a few minutes the final numbers.
But ladies and gentlemen, this is serious talk on everything that affects you.
And one of the things that affects you is whether this gargantuan blob in government, whether these government people are,
working for us or working for themselves.
Are they honest or are they corrupt?
Are they honest or are they absolute gargantuan sleaze bags?
Well, 37 trillion of debt, 2.something trillion yearly deficits tells you one thing.
But we're going to start out with the Doge moment.
But first, the introductions.
In case you don't know, this is serious talk.
We'll talk markets, the economy, jobs.
unemployment taxes deficit spending scams shams corruption doge
you name it we cover it in case you don't know the president speaking to both chambers
tonight it's not i don't think they call it the state of the union
i don't know exactly what they call it but it's kind of sort of the state of the union
address type of thing we'll see if you do not get this show in your city who posted at garyk
com we'll also post it on our twitter feed which is now x and if you don't follow
us on X, you should. And if you'd like to email us, all you got to do is be nice. So ladies and gentlemen,
what I'm about to talk about, these people that did what they did are lucky I am not
the Attorney General of this country. They are lucky that I am not head of the Justice Department.
They are lucky I am not in power because I would rip the stuff
out of what I'm about to tell you and what they did.
So let's backtrack.
Remember, these were people running government.
These were people running government.
I told you a couple of years back when they came out this $1.8 trillion BS.
They said it was for inflation, and then Biden came out and said,
no, no, there's no inflation things in there.
Gave $350 billion to this guy, John Podesta, who was a long time,
democratic hack.
That's how I define him.
I said to you on this show, under no uncertain terms and with no sarcasm, that all these
people that are connected are running to Delaware and are going to start up companies,
nonprofits, for climate, and put themselves and their friends on the board and they've
never had anything to do with climate, and they're going to end up with big salaries, and there'll
be absolutely no accounting of all the freaking dollars that are our dollars, our tax dollars,
not theirs.
So, are you ready?
The climate, these are all going out the door at the end of the Biden for years.
these are all things that were created created
these were all created
in the last couple of years
the Climate United Fund got 6.9 billion
of our tax dollars it's led by
ex-Obama and Biden officials
the
community preservation corp
2.4 billion
The CEO worked under New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg.
The coalition for green capital, 5 billion of our tax dollars.
Ex-Biden climate aid and top Democratic donors.
Power-forward communities.
$2 billion.
The CEO was Obama-era Fannie Mae Chief.
Enterprise Community Partners.
$589 million led by the ex-Obama housing and urban development secretary.
Rewiring America, $490 million of our tax dollars.
The CEO was tied to the Obama White House, and Stacey Abrams, where'd we hear that name from, is on the staff.
Boy, she's a professional.
How about the Local Initiative Support Corp, 590 million of our tax dollars,
an ex-Clinton Treasury Secretary chairs the board.
How about the Opportunity Finance Network, 2.3 billion of our tax dollars.
The CEO was appointed to the Biden Treasury Board.
How about the Climate United Fund, $6.9 billion.
led by ex-Obama and Biden officials.
Coalition for Green Capital, $5 billion.
Ex-Biden, climate aid, and top Democrat donor ties.
Power forward community.
CEO was Obama-era Fannie Mae Cheap.
Did I already say that?
Do I need to do any more?
How about inclusive?
1.8 billion.
How about Justice Climate Fund?
940 million was formed to target greenhouse gas fund cash.
How about the Appalachian Community Capital, 500 million?
The CEO held the Treasury advisory role.
How about the native CDFI network, $400 million.
It's a nonprofit with no major funding history.
We try to be careful with our words here.
These are a bunch of grifting scumbags.
that used their connections with the scumbag biden who handed this stuff out and god only knows how much he's
getting paid through these are our tax dollars going to waste going to waste they can't go to jail
they did it legally legal grift boy you should be pissed
off. No wonder
they're having fits.
No wonder the left is going crazy.
These are all their friends and buddies.
And I guarantee you some politicians
are doing quarter million dollars
speeches to some of these outfits.
That's how they get paid.
That's how some of these politicians
on $180,000 a year
are worth $25 million.
This wasn't just the Doge moment.
This is the Doge segment.
They can all rot.
Because none of these outfits are doing anything for anybody,
except enriching themselves and funneling our tax dollars into favorite places.
The good news, this administration and Lee Zeldon and others,
are doing everything to claw back every single dime,
and if I were them, I'd be putting every one of them up in front of Congress and asking them where the money is and what exactly are they doing.
They'd all turn into Ralph Cramden and go humana, humana, humana, pissed off?
I am. You should be.
They're dirtbags.
I wish I had better news.
As we always say to you, we don't like doing this.
We take no joy.
but they're crooks.
They're crooked.
They're sleaze bags.
They're greedy, leftist, Marxist, socialists
that are only Marxists and socialists
with our life and our money.
And you know what they are with their money.
That's your Doge segment.
Up next, the crappy markets.
This is the one only Investor's Edge.
Hi, I'm Gary Kalpom,
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and their innovative horizontal quick-draw fly is a game changer.
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Don't settle for less.
Go to Tommyjohn.com today for 25% off your first order with Code Comfort.
That's Tommyjohn.com, code comfort.
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It doesn't get better than this.
Okay.
I told you.
I told you.
Two years ago, I started saying it once they were putting out that money.
They did exactly what I said they were going to do.
They did not let us down.
Billions of dollars.
Billions.
No shame.
Yeah, just give me two billion.
People that have never been involved in any organization like,
that getting two billion of our tax dollars and then they hit it they hit it away from
where it was supposed to be in a bank account and bank accounts but it's been found and we'll
see how it goes unreal they're so lucky I'm not running the place hopefully this
administration gets very pissed off and does something about it
And if anybody in this administration or any on that side are involved, them too.
We have no bias.
Markets.
So I must tell you, I was thrilled with the market today at about 3.25 p.m.
I was thrilled.
Absolutely thrilled.
You see, you had a market today that, let's go with the Dow.
How about the Dow?
You had a market today where the Dow at one time today was down about 850 points, the Dow.
And at 325, it was only down, I got to get this right, 43,000, bear with me, 08,000.
$564, $850 to only down $325,000 to only down $300 at $325.
The NASDAQ today, which had a better feel most of the day, early in the day, was it,
got to get it right, 17956, 330, 330.
was down about 265 points at one time today.
Think about that, down 265 points at one time today,
and at 325, you ready for this?
15-58-9-3 was up 235.35 points at 325.
So you went from 17956 to 18589.
A great reversal.
633 point reversal.
I was thrilled.
Why do we love reversals?
Because they wash out late sellers.
Imagine the market's going down, it's going down, it's going down and going down.
and everybody gets bearish as all heck.
And then you have that day where markets getting blasted
and everybody's selling and then
whoosh to the upside.
There's only one problem with today.
The Dow, which at 325 was 43084,
only down 100.
Finished at 42.520.
Down 670.
Drop 570 points into the close.
The NASDAQ, which was at 18589,
closed at 18285,
down 300 points from the highs.
Boy, that pisses me off.
That really felt like a good reversal day today.
Maybe it'll do it tomorrow.
It really felt like something.
It really felt like a great washout.
And just so you know, we're very good at washouts and reading them.
But I felt too good too early.
As they always say, you've got to wait for the clothes.
Well, we'll see what happens tomorrow.
I'm in hopes because the NASDAQ only finished down today 65 points, still way off the lows, that it's going to be meaningful.
The NASDAQ 100 way off the lows, hopefully that's going to be meaningful.
But boy, oh boy, you know what they call the close of the market today?
a rug pull in the last 35 minutes.
I see after the close,
they're rallying up the market a little bit.
We'll see.
Anyway, just another, the Dow finished poorly,
and I'll tell you what was very weak today,
the banks.
They were already coming in.
Goldman Sachs, I got it down, Goldman Sachs today.
down 24 bucks.
I've got to 580.
We'll call it 4%.
I got Citigroup down 6% today.
No, 4.8%.
My bad.
I got Bank of America down 6% today.
I got JP Morgone down 4% today.
I got Wells Fargo down 4.8% today.
Those are some big moves.
And a lot of other financials younged.
A PNC bank in the regionals, almost 5%.
The KRE, the regional bank, ETF, 3.5%.
Ew.
Oh, by the way, the transports were down 323 today, and not great.
I will also tell you, you ready, new yearly lows?
a thousand and thirty on the New York and NASDAQ.
A thousand and thirty on the New York and NASDAQ.
Ew.
Now a bunch of them are off the lows because you had a lot of reversing.
That's still, ew.
Up next.
What else did we see today?
I'm Gary.
This is the one only investor's edge.
Guys, it's no use putting it off.
The best time for an underwear refresh is now.
Tommy John underwear is designed for a perfect fit that stays put all day.
Their zero-chafe thanks to four times more stretch than competing brands.
And their innovative horizontal quick-draw fly is a game changer.
With over 30 million pairs sold, there are thousands of men out there more comfortable than you.
Don't settle for less.
Go to Tommyjohn.com today for 25% off your first order with Code Comfort.
That's Tommyjohn.com, code comfort.
Tommy John. Comfort perfected.
This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X.
card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel
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airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply. Lounge
access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details. This episode is brought to you by Spreaker.
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And welcome once again to Investor's Edge.
Thanks for being with us today.
Boy, what am I seeing here?
The NASDAQ 100 jumping in the aftermarket, looking to see what we're getting.
The Dow jumping.
Let me see what's going on here in the after market.
Dow's up 170 after the close.
Maybe something's going on.
I don't know.
I do not know.
Maybe that rug pull after the clothes will get bought up a little bit.
We shall see.
I will say crowd strike.
Everybody's favorite software security stock.
Well, that's down 25 bucks in the aftermarket.
So that's not doing the trick.
But other things are.
We'll see.
What else is going on?
And again, we're explained to what a washout is.
It's an occurrence.
It's one of those things where market's going down, markets going down, markets going down, markets going down, markets going down, markets going down, market's going down.
And you have another bad day that's down 700 and the Dow only finishes down 100 or up.
Well, that's what was going on today until the last 35 minutes, darn it.
But we're seeing a good aftermarket.
We'll see how that plays out overnight.
What else?
Tariffs.
Well, the tariffs have been put on, and I will tell you that Canada and Mexico were giving President Trump a certain finger right back at him, which, by the way, is right back at us.
Let me, if you haven't heard me before on this, we completely disagree with what is happening.
we believe it makes no sense.
They have changed, kind of sort of they have changed the reasoning for tariffs.
Now it's all about fentanyl.
And leave no doubt, I am 100% on the side of,
we have got to do everything about stopping fentanyl from coming into this country
and killing people.
I'm on that.
100%.
But I will tell you, the numbers they keep reporting on fentanyl are
not so sure correct, though it's bad.
And if I call myself the greatest negotiator of all time,
why can't he sit down with these parties
and hammer out something instead of punishing?
And in case you don't know,
God bless President Donald Trump for doing his best,
but please don't tell us that tariffs are paid,
by the other countries.
Here is how a tariff works.
Listen carefully.
This is the definition.
This is the truth.
A product comes into this country and maybe Walmart is buying it.
Or maybe it's a very small business that has $5 million in sales.
And it comes, the products come in from China.
And the reason they get them from China, because of very cheap.
to get it from there. The costs are much lower than other places. And that's the decision of the
business. Welcome to capitalism. And now we have a 20% tariff. So instead of paying for whatever
they're buying, snow globes, for $10, they're now paying $12. The difference of $2 gets paid to our treasury.
the business pays that $2 to our treasury.
Thus, when the president says we make money,
he is correct on that.
It goes to our treasury.
But that means it's a 20% tax.
And as the president says, higher taxes are bad.
So why are tariffs so good, you catch in my drift?
And that business has to make a decision.
either I'm going to eat it myself or share it with my customers or they're going to pay for the whole thing.
The problem for small businesses, it is not easy to maneuver.
For a Walmart, they may have different supply chains because they're so freaking big that maybe it doesn't affect them.
The hope of the president longer term is that going forward, the products get made,
here. But that's not how life works. Because those things take a long period of time while you're
penalizing in the near term and in the near future. So tariffs are not good for business. They are a tax.
It is the reason why in his first four years, President Trump took our tax dollars and paid off farmers
who lost their butts because of tariffs.
Do you remember that?
That's not capitalism.
So there are flaws to what they are doing.
And the markets have been very pissed off about it.
Plus, not only because of the tariff itself,
but the constant changing of the tariffs in size and in dates.
And also the reasons.
Now all we're hearing, it's fentanyl.
Has nothing to do with trade.
It's fentanyl.
And the problem with that is, how do you plan as a business?
Oh, I'm buying something for $10?
Oh, now it's 12.
Oh, now it's 11.
Oh, now it's 13.
You can't plan.
So you have problems.
I wish I had the president's ear.
He'd probably to go tell me to go screw myself anyhow.
but it's a huge mistake a huge mistake these tariffs oh what about reciprocal they're
doing it to us they're doing it to us but wait a minute if they're doing it to us
aren't they hurting themselves hmm hmm if they're the buyers of our product huh
Aren't they pay more? You darn straight they are.
Now, why would it hurt us?
Well, if they're paying more over there, they may buy less.
That's how it works.
And that's how it work over here also.
If all of a sudden we're paying 12 instead of 10, we may buy instead of 10,000 units, 8,000.
But no matter what, it's a tax.
And it sucks.
just letting you know.
And the markets have reacted not so happy because of that.
My guess is the president is watching the markets.
My guess that eventually he backs away saving face.
Right now we can't save face because Canada in Mexico tell him to take a flying leap.
We'll see how this plays out.
But that is the tariff story.
And I hate, I hate Republicans that have hated tariffs, their whole Republican life, all of a sudden they're okay because the man in power likes them.
We won't do that here.
Taxes are taxes are taxes.
Any way you cut them, that's our take on tariffs.
We'll see how it plays out.
I'm now on record that they start to get backed away.
What is it, Tuesday?
I'm going to give it.
I'm going to give myself leeway.
It's the fourth.
I'm going to give myself to the 15th that they back off.
25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico.
Our number one and two trading partners, insane.
Ew.
Major update.
And makes me feel better.
about a possible reversal.
The Dow, which tanked into the close,
is up in the aftermarket already 250 points.
The NASDAQ 100 that closed at 495, 55.
It's up almost 1% in the aftermarket.
That's like 200 NASDAQ points.
Nice.
So maybe that last minute, 35 minute watch,
Madougie, and I don't see any news to cause it. So I'm wondering whether they are figuring out
or thinking the tariffs are going to go by the wayside. I don't know. Just letting you know
strong aftermarket, feeling a little bit better. Up next, what else we got? I'll figure it out.
I'm Gary. This is the one only investor's edge. It's no use putting it off. The best time for an
underwear refreshes now. Tommy John underwear is designed for a perfect fit that stays put all day.
Their zero-chafe thanks to four times more stretch than competing brands, and their innovative
horizontal quick-draw fly is a game changer. With over 30 million pairs sold, there are thousands
of men out there more comfortable than you. Don't settle for less. Go to Tommyjohn.com today for
25% off your first order with Code Comfort. That's Tommyjohn.com code comfort. Tommy John,
Comfort, perfected.
Capital One Venture X card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect.
Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination.
Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide.
The Capital One Venture X card.
What's in your wallet?
Terms apply.
Lounge access is subject to change.
See Capital One.com for details.
This episode is brought to you by Spreaker, the platform responsible for a rapidly spreading condition known as podcast brain.
Symptoms include buying microphones you don't need, explaining RSS feeds to confused relatives, and saying things like, sorry, I can't talk right now, I'm editing audio.
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The good news is Spreaker makes the whole process simple.
You record your show, upload it once, and Spreaker distributes it everywhere people listen, Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and about a dozen.
apps your cousin swears are the next big thing. Even better, Spreaker helps you monetize your show
with ads, meaning your podcast might someday pay for, well, more microphones. Start your show today
at spreeker.com. Spreaker, because if you're going to talk to yourself for an hour, you might as well
publish it. You're listening to. What are we waiting for? Well, what are you waiting for?
One, two, ready, go. Action! In the guest's edge. With you.
Gary Culper.
So,
da-na-na,
I am wearing
Invisaline right now.
Do you know out of nowhere
like six months ago?
I just wake up one morning
and I have a gap in my teeth,
bottom row.
And I'm like, how to hell
would that happen?
Just out of nowhere.
So I got my great dentist,
good friend of mine.
I said, what do I do about the gap?
and he did this Invisaline thing cost a few bucks.
So I have the thing in right now.
Amazingly, I don't know how they do it,
but with the thing in, the gap's gone.
I guess it pushes things together,
and I guess over time it does the trick, I think.
We'll see.
How does that happen?
All of a sudden you wake up and you got a gap in your teeth.
I'm a nice guy.
I lead a good life.
Why would he do that?
By the way, I don't know what's going on in the aftermarket,
but dang, the Dow is now up, whoa, 300 in the aftermarket.
I can see this.
NASDAQ, well, everything's up pretty damn big in the aftermarket.
I am wondering if something's going on with the tariffs.
I am not seeing anything as of yet.
And there's nothing to move the markets as far as earnings.
Crowd strikes down a bunch, raw stores where I get my Scooby-Doo socks,
That ain't doing anything, and they gave downside guidance.
Looking for anything else that's moving the needle.
No, nothing.
But good.
I feel much better because I really thought we were going to have a reversal day.
And I'm going to say we had a reversal day at an aftermarket.
We'll see what tomorrow brings.
Do not forget.
Well, first off, they bludgeoned the banks.
So Goldman's up five bucks in the aftermarket. I see what they're doing. They're raising everything.
I don't want you to forget a few things at this juncture. Number one, even if we have this
open up good tomorrow and it's considered a reversal, there's a lot of bad stocks, a lot of downtrends, a lot of things that have been blasted.
That's number one. Number two, China.
China is the strength.
They hit Europe overnight finally.
Boy, they hit the German Dax for 4% overnight,
but it went vertical for a few days.
I don't know why.
They're almost in recession.
Oh, they are in recession,
so I don't know what's going on there.
But China still has this lead right now off of the government
largesse or whatever else.
And we're going to see how it plays out.
there's really no play in it right now.
The AI trade.
So including aftermarket,
NVIDIA is up three and three quarters bucks today.
And let me state, very importantly,
sometimes there are areas of port that really matter a lot.
Nvidia at that 113, Muir importante,
fell to 110 today, finished back above it.
We'll see what that does.
But it's certainly not a leading stock anymore, not even close to being a leading stock.
Not even close.
And in fact, the stock is still down.
I'm adding it up.
17% from June.
And is down more than 20% from the recent highs.
So nothing great there.
The semiconductors were having a strong day-to-date until they got trounce.
at the end of the day, but they'll be up a little bit tomorrow, if nothing changes overnight.
You know, by the way, I'm wondering something's going on with the tariffs.
Just also want to let you know, year-to-date, Russell, 2000s down 7%.
NASDAX down more than 5%, mid-cap, 4.6%, S&P, down 2%.
Just let you know.
And that doesn't include aftermarket, though.
I have to mention Target and Best Buy.
target
New Yearly low
earnings down 19
revenue down 3
they're worried about tariffs
that was in their report today
Best Buy
down 13%
today
earnings down 5%
revenue down 5%
volume 5 times average today
close to new yearly lows
two important retailers
and that's what we mean
when we say to you, there's just a lot of bad stocks.
So we're going to be very selective going forward.
The one thing we can do right now, since there has been so much weakness, we're going to isolate strength.
What hasn't buckled?
What showing the best strength?
Interesting enough today, you know how we've been telling you that the consumer staples and the defensive areas?
as the market was rallying today, they were selling off.
It is one or the other when it comes to those.
We'll see what tomorrow brings.
The aftermarket may be changing the playing field,
and maybe something's going on with the tariffs.
I don't know.
I'm going to guess something may be going on.
The president will be speaking tonight.
Maybe something's going to be mentioned.
Don't know.
And that's really the story.
It has been a miserable, icky, yucky, scummy market as of recent, unless you own just all China.
And when I tell you over 1,000 new yearly lows, dang.
Hardly any new yearly highs?
Dang.
Long-term moving averages, getting taken out, hasn't yet.
And that's going to be the most important part of the equation, ladies and gentlemen.
is the long-term moving averages.
I can't begin to tell you that the lows of today are going to be moi-importante as we roll
in to tomorrow and going forward.
And I show my peeps the symmetry that those areas held twice in the last year.
Tomorrow be another day.
wish I had a better news on the Doge.
I take no joy in it, but you should all be pissed off.
On that note, you have a great evening drive carefully.
When you get home, do like we do, quite simple.
Make sure you hug your family.
Make sure you hug your children.
They will feel better.
You will feel better.
I promise stay well, be well.
Until tomorrow.
Have a great night.
Bye-bye.
This has been Investors Edge with Gary Coltbaum on BizTalk.
To listen to past episodes or to get in contact with Gary, go to GaryK.com.
That's GaryK.com.
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