Investor's Edge with Gary Kaltbaum - Watch Nvidia [09.04.2024]

Episode Date: September 4, 2024

https://garykaltbaum.com/

At CVS, it matters that we're not just in your community, but that we're part of it. It matters that we're here for you when you need us, day or night, and we want everyone to feel welcomed and rewarded. It matters that CVS is here to fill your prescriptions and here to fill your craving for a tasty and, yeah, healthy snack. At CBS, we're proud to serve your community because we believe where you get your medicine matters. So visit us at CVS.com or just come by your food. store. We can't wait to meet you. Store hours vary by location. Investor's Edge with Gary Coltbaum. Straight talk about you and your money. Now from the BizTalk Studios, here is Gary Cultbaum. And welcome once again to Investors Edge. I'm Gary Colbom,

your host. A thanks to being with us today. Glad you here, ladies and gentlemen, happy that you are listening. It is Wednesday. It is the 4th of September. It's 2024 and we hope you are having a good day. As always, serious talk on everything that affects you. The markets, the economy, your job, your industry, the world, the election, debt, deficits, scams, shams, corruption, proposals. And we're not talking marriage proposals. We're talking proposals coming out of the Morlocks in D.C. And we do it without any agenda, any ulterior motive, any bias.

All we care about is you and me. And my grandson, Reese, just born on July 5th. Ooh, tomorrow's two-month birthday. Yes, I may have to do something. Ladies and gentlemen, as we have said, we are going to cover the election. We're going to tell you what they say and what we think. You know where we stand on most everything. We believe it should be we the people.

If we were running the country, low taxes, less regulations, get the hell out of your way. You're smarter than government. Most of the people in government don't have a clue. and I've never been in the business world. But somehow some of them are able to become wealthy beyond the beyond, even though they're making $180,000 a year. Interesting, huh. So we'll get to that in a little bit.

But first, if you don't get this show in your city, this radio show, we'll post it at garyk.com. We'll also post it on our Twitter feed, which is now X. And if you don't follow us on X, you should. We'll also post it on podcast app. And if you like to email me, go ahead. No, really, go ahead. Just got to be nice.

That's all we ask. Nice, respectful, and all that fun stuff. We'll be respectful back unless you like Hamas. Makes sense? So, it was one of those days where I don't have gargantuan numbers to talk to you about when it comes to the market. not massive moves when it comes to the market, but as always, there are things that are always sticking out for me.

In case you don't know, I am a very big believer in the semiconductors being very much a leading group, the leading group. It's never 100% of the time, but it's way up there. In other words, right now, they're not leading. You know what's leading? Food, beverage, tobacco, household products, utilities, defense, because everybody likes a good war. Some medical, not all.

Real estate investment trusts. That's what's leading. Semiconductors are not. but I'm a big believer also in the big picture. You know, very often people are talking about today and this and that. We believe in following major trends, intermediate trends, and sometimes less. And we just want to start out by saying of import, yesterday, if memory serves me right, yesterday the NASDAQ was down 500 approximately and it was down again today was actually up at one point in time today

but was down again today and I'm a big believer just a big believer if they can't even bounce it after such a big drop it's something to think about five 577 NASDAQ points couldn't end up with a bounce today. Not the end of the world. Was up 100 though at one time. Had a chance. Couldn't. On a near-term basis?

Something to watch. The very important semiconductor index was down a whopping 400 yesterday. And at one time today was up 85. finished only up 11. So after such a big drop, anemic action today, of those very important technology semiconductor areas. And we're making note of that. And of course we pick it apart.

Seven stocks are like almost 50% of the NASDAQ 100, which takes us to the most asked about Question we get these days, and that's NVIDIA. And we're going to repeat what you are not hearing from others. We're going to repeat what you're not hearing from others. And we say that because we know what you're hearing from others. Fundamentals are sound. Fundamentals are strong.

Yes, the earnings and sales decelerated, but from gargation. numbers, just own it and put it away. I'm buying the dip even though it's down more than 20%. I'm not so sure that's just a dip. It is the leader of AI. I heard somebody say today they have 90% of the market and he mentioned that as being great news. I think that's terrible news. Why would that be terrible news? Having 90% of the market. It's quite simple. There's only one way to go from here. Down. And I promise you others are going to get into the business. But I digress for another day. We're just letting you know. The stock is in the 11th week of its correction.

It is down from 140-70, closed at 106 and change today down. Buck 70. At one time today, and here we go again. at one time today was up five bucks and they couldn't hold it just things we think about on a short-term basis it was up five bucks and they couldn't hold it that means institutions took that opportunity to get rid of more stock it's trading below the 50-day moving average its relative strength line is touching the relative strength line when the stock was down to 90 bucks doesn't mean it's going there, closed at 106, but it's still under pressure, and that will certainly not help the semiconductors and the NASDAQ NASDAQ 100 right now, though there are other things that moved the needle. But we get asked so often about it, and you know we owned it twice, three times, made huge,

made big lost a little and right now there is no reason for us to own it because we don't own anything below the 50-day moving average and certainly having a bad reaction to earnings and as we stated to you also we always try to outline what could go wrong and as we have stated to you and these are facts in the past decades it is not unusual for the over ordering of chips from whoever it may be. And if there's been any overordering of chips, semiconductor chips, one would suggest the artificial intelligence may be it. What that potentially can lead to, we're not predicting this,

is somebody's ordering and they over-order and they have too much, well, they don't have to order anymore going forward, and guess what happens to NVIDIA's sales growth? It's very simplistic. Again, that's not a prediction. technically well you got that big reversal at 90 i don't count that i think the hundred dollar number is really important a break below there let's just call it be more in the soup and let's just state it will not help other names in semiconductor land where when we scan 80 names every night i got four

at an 80 that look okay. Up next, what else in the markets? We'll pick it apart. And then Kamala Reagan. This is the one only Investor's Edge. Hi, I'm Gary Kalbaum, hosted a nationally syndicated radio show Investors Edge. We're not just handsome radio people. We manage investors' money for a living,

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Investment Advisory Services offered through call-bomb capital management. Hi, I'm Dr. Jake Goodman, host of Beyond the Script, the podcast where I sit down with pharmacists to answer the health questions you didn't even know you could ask at the pharmacy counter. In this episode, we are diving into gut health with CVS pharmacist Victoria Motola, who explains why so many of us live with stomach issues we should not accept as normal. A lot of what I see is just like chronic bloating, chronic stomach aches. Like I get a stomachache every time that I eat, and it just becomes like a lifestyle where,

oh, yeah, you know, I just have a stomachache every day. Or I'm constantly feeling like gassy. And all of those things are not something that generally, if you have a healthy gut, you should be living with. So that's when we deep dive. We deep dive into your medication. We deep dive into your OTC medication. And then at that point, we can probably identify something that we can change. Hear the full conversation, plus some fascinating facts about how gut health affects so much more than just your stomach on Beyond the Script, a podcast from CVS Pharmacy and IHeartRadio.

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could be available as soon as tomorrow. Depending on certain loan attributes, your business loan may be issued by On Deck or Celtic Bank. On Deck does not lend in North Dakota. All loans an amount subject to lender approval. It's time to switch on the integrator units and get the brain cells working. You're listening to. Hey, this promises to be fun. Investors Edge.

The last bastion of quality programming. With Gary Coltbaum. It doesn't get better than this. And walk once again to Investors Edge. So, a few things. we repeat the money flows right now we're going into food beverage tobacco household products names like chlorox Campbell soup Kimberly Clark Mondalese Coke did I say that Group, British tobacco, utilities, insurance, real estate investment trusts, miscellaneous medical.

Let's throw in Argentina. If you want, go put up ARGT. As you know, there's a Reagan-esque person who took over the place, who I love the media saying he's an extreme right wing and all he is is What I talk about, low taxes, less regulation, and he's doing a pretty darn good job. Wish he was running this country right now. His name's Malay. What does that tell you this second and we're dealing in real time? The market is thinking there is a slowdown in the economy here or on the horizon. I know we get these GDP numbers.

I don't buy it. They include government and government's been psychotically big in their spending, which goes to GDP. Leave no doubt. There is softness in the job market. We'll see how it goes. That's the story. Yesterday they creamed oils, copper

aluminum economically sensitive stuff like Caterpillar which was down another three and a half bucks today economically sensitive stocks for the most part were down again today

building slash construction oils got hit again today and oil prices dropped another dollar and a half today which by the way what do they say poo-pooing we're not going to poo-poo it because at the pump you're going to be paying less if it stays this way.

But we're just letting you know where the money is flowing. I stopped out of things. A couple of things, yeah, wish I didn't. A couple of things, thankfully I did. And we're playing it close to the vest right now. Why?

Because of what's leading, what's lagging. Big financials. They have been holding up pretty well, but Goldman Sachs was hit for $22 yesterday. Bounced up three today, okay. That's to be watched. You really don't want to lose the financials.

Insurance, wise insurance strong. Well, the best example is Allstate is raising home insurance in California, 34% from last year. I don't know how they get away with it. And not putting the rub on Allstate, just letting you know. That's the story. in a nutshell and we'll see how it goes

where in September we were told we were warned September could be tough and then we came right into September and boom we're not into seasonality because I've seen good September's we're into letting the market dictate and we go from there of note today also that stuck out for me

dollar tree these dollar stores deep discounts are getting murdered. Down 18 to 63 bucks, it was $151 in March. And as we have told you, they're no longer dollar stores. They had to raise prices because they got squeezed on the margins, and they're all basically stating that at the lower end. And when we use the lower end, it's not pejorative,

we're just stating lower income. There's some hardship. going on now. Price conscience, even at the dollar stores. And man, oh man, if there's any lesson to teach each and every one of you is don't be in bare markets. Dollar tree topped out in March and it's done a classic bare market drop from when it gapped down at around 127, that's off of 151. It's 63. I looked at a 50% drop, we could not have owned it. And you should be learning on how to not own bare market stocks or sectors. And by the way, it's dollar general also. Crushed. It's five

below. Crushed. On the other end, TJX, fine. Walmart, fine. In fact, Walmart strong. Target somewhat a tweener. And don't get me started on, what's the one almost bank? Oh, big lots. There I think going bankrupt. Or did they go bankrupt? That's only gone for, it's only 51 cents right now. It was 71 bucks in 2021.

Thus my, one of my mottos, you can think long term, but make sure what you are owning is working long term. so you don't owe to big lots and drop 99%. How's that for cents? So a lot of jello moving on the plate right now. Not the end of the world. Bad day yesterday. But I'm very interested in these semis.

Ten-year yield down to 3.768 today. Wow. The five-year 3.5. The 30 year 4.067. We're told the two-year may have finally dropped under the 10-year. Getting rid of that inversion, as they say. As I speak, since I'm ambidextrose, I am putting in two-year note yield,

and let's see what comes up. It closed a 376, so it's right there with the 10-year. Wow, big drop, big drop. That was at 5% in May. Now the question is, is it just because of inflation or the economy? Not sure. It's a guarantee J. Powell's going to lower rates in September in the meeting and start playing catch up. That's all he's doing.

Up next. Now we'll figure it out. I'm Gary. This is the one only investors ad. Hi, I'm Dr. Jake Goodman, host of Beyond the Script, the podcast where I sit down with pharmacists to answer the health questions you didn't even know you could ask at the pharmacy counter. In this episode, we are diving into gut health with CVS pharmacist, Victoria Motola, who explains why so many of us live with stomach issues we should not accept as normal.

A lot of what I see is just like chronic bloating, chronic stomach aches. Like, I get a stomachache every time that I eat. And it just becomes like a lifestyle where, oh, yeah, you know, I just have a stomachache every day. Or I'm constantly feeling like gassy. And all of those things are not something that generally, if you have a healthy gut, you should be living with. So that's when we deep dive.

We deep dive into your medication. We deep dive into your OTC medication. And then at that point, we can probably identify something that we can change. Hear the full conversation, plus some fascinating facts about how. gut health affects so much more than just your stomach on Beyond the Script, a podcast from CVS Pharmacy and IHeart Radio. Listen now wherever you get your podcasts. With the Venmo debit card, a taco in one hand, and ordering a ride in the other, means you're stacking your rewards. Nice. Get up to 5% cash back with Venmo stash on your favorite

brands when you pay with your Venmo debit card. From takeout to ride shares, entertainment, and more. Pick a bundle with your go-toes and start earning cash back at those brands. Do more stash, get more cash. Venmo stash bundle terms and exclusions apply. See terms at Venmo.com. $100 cash back per month. OnDec is built to back small businesses like yours. Whether you're buying equipment, expanding your team, or bridging cash flow gaps,

OnDex loans up to $400,000 help make it happen fast. Rated A-plus by the Better Business Bureau and earning thousands of five-star trust pilot reviews, OnDec delivers funding you can count on. Apply in minutes at ondeck.com. On sending on certain loan attributes, your business loan may be issued by OnDec or Celtic Bank. OnDec does not lend in North Dakota. All loans and amounts subject to lender approval. You're listening to.

America is talking. Investors Edge. He's got to be pleased with that. The crowd is just on his feet here. He's a Cinderella boy. With Gary Coltbaum. It comes highly recommended. You're going to feel better if you talk to him.

And welcome once again to Investors Edge tidbits. Hey, guess what everybody's talking on Wall Street? Now about something we've been talking about a year or more. Now they're talking about how Intel should be taken out of the Dow. Duh. That means since Wall Street saying it, that was leaked. And Intel will be taken out of the Dow soon. The question is, what are they going to put in?

And I think they better be careful. Because in the Dow already is Apple, Amazon, and Microsoft. three gargantuan stocks that have had monstrous moves through the years. I always worry about that. And I'm thinking if they take out Intel, are they going to go with Nvidia? I don't know. You would think they're going to replace it with tech. Don't know.

We'll see. Kamala Harris. As you know, we have taken her in the Biden administration to task. $2 trillion deficits while they lie to us and say, oh, they're doing great with it. Deficits are going to grow $2 trillion plus a year for the next 10 years. While they tell us they're lowering the deficits for $3 trillion over the next 10 years. They're just lying sacks of crap.

They're telling us they lowered child poverty and cut in half. Kamala Harris said that yesterday. Big fat, juicy, smelly, stinking lie. No such animal is giving a family a tax credit and they're out of poverty. Children don't come out of poverty because of a check. You know how they come out of poverty, right? Good family, good jobs, leadership, mentorship, skills. If there's anything that makes me ill, more than anything from this administration is that lie.

under Biden, who by the way, screw him, I have zero respect for this guy. Zero, and I mean zero. Six hostages in Israel. Executed bullets behind the ear. And then sprayed with more bullets. We're finding out they were starved for the last year. One of the girls was weighed at 76 pounds when she was executed.

Biden gets back off the beach and was asked about it. he blamed Benjamin Nottingyao did not blame the animals and the murders if I saw Joe Biden today well first off the Secret Service would be pat me down like anybody else I would tell him to go screw I don't see him as a president or not

I see him as a man who sucks all politics terrible foreign policy and six Jews massacred after being held hostage and he blames the head of Israel

for it he's not doing enough go screw simple as that at the colleges the ass clowns are now doing their thing again and you know showing up with signs of Hamas and

wearing masks and the morons running the colleges are doing nothing. I just with thinking to myself today, let them. Let the people parade down the streets. That's all. Let them. Screw them. Let them waste their lives, waste their time. Screw them.

You know, they've all become tiresome and boring. Simple comedy act. Gaze for Hamas. I saw a sign. I'm not making it up. They murder them in a heartbeat. They murder them in a heartbeat. Just tired of the stupid.

Israel with two million Arabs there, but they're apartheid. Before this thing happened, before the murders by these animals, Palestinians would flock into Israel every day to go to work. Yeah, but Israel's apartheid. Just a bunch of jackasses. so I let it be. I saw someone in New York City tearing down one of the hostages posters,

and I just went into the person's face and laughed. What are you going to do? Remember, tick-tac-toe. You can't win, you don't play the game. But Joe Biden, go screw. But Kamala Harris, is she turning into Kamala Reagan? So Biden proposed raising capital gains long term from 20 to 44-6. Kamala Harris says 28, and only for people making over a million dollars.

So she came out and completely lowered that. That's number one. Number two, she's proposing a major, pretty much a major, small, business slash deduction credit. If you start a small business, you get a $5,000 deduction now. Now she's saying 50,000. And I'm thinking to myself as her last name Reagan. Well, it should be obvious. Her whole background is anti-business, talking them down, and higher taxes. So leave no doubt the moderates have got to her. Hey, we've got an election to win. The question is, is she full of crap? Will she follow through?

By the way, it's a great proposal. I would propose it. And I say, is she full of crap? Because I still remember Clinton. Up until the election, I'm not raising taxes. Do you know two days after the election? Two days after become president, he proposed a big raise of taxes. So trust is low.

But if she wins, well, we'll see. It's a great idea. And the fact that she lowered Biden's stupidity, we'll call him the go-screw president. We'll see what else she's got in store. Again, trust, low. Why? When I used to go to the dog track in my earlier years,

how do you bet on the dogs? Past performance. How long are the race? How much weight they're carrying? Are they inside or outside? Is it a muddy track? Do they come from behind then? It's a longer race.

Or they start at front, it's a shorter race. Past performance. Her past performance has been pitiful on debt deficits taxes, which takes me to the next part. Then she starts talking about raising taxes. Billionaires and corporations, you're not paying your fair share. she went back to the Marxist roots

so we'll see what the outcome is next on the election have you been reading the polls I don't even pay attention anymore do you know why there's like 80 polls and they all differ from each other do you know I read a poll that has Trump up by 8

and one that had Harris up by 6 it's the stupidest thing I ever seen I'm beginning to believe the polls are just plain old scams but they make a lot of money, these pollsters. Anyway, the polls, yippee, yeah, yeah. It does boggle the mind, ladies and gentlemen. May I state for the record.

One up by eight, one up by, the other one up by six. And we'll just take you to the elections we keep going. I do hear this is debate in the next week. Trump should call me if he wants the best advice. But I've been watching them. You just can't go to A to Z. Needs to tighten it up. Up next, what else do we got here today?

I'm Gary. This is Investors Edge. Hi, I'm Dr. Jake Goodman, host of Beyond the Script, the podcast where I sit down with pharmacists to answer the health questions you didn't even know you could ask at the pharmacy counter. In this episode, we are diving into gut health. with CVS pharmacist Victoria Motola, who explains why so many of us live with stomach issues we should not accept as normal.

A lot of what I see is just like chronic bloating, chronic stomach aches. Like I get a stomach ache every time that I eat, and it just becomes like a lifestyle where, oh, yeah, you know, I just have a stomachache every day. Or I'm constantly feeling like gassy. And all of those things are not something that generally, if you have a healthy gut, you should be living with.

So that's when we deep dive. We deep dive into your medication. We deep dive into your OTC medication. And then at that point, we can probably identify something that we can change. Hear the full conversation, plus some fascinating facts about how gut health affects so much more than just your stomach on Beyond the Script, a podcast from CVS Pharmacy and IHeart Radio. Listen now wherever you get your podcasts. With the Venmo debit card, a taco in one hand, and ordering a ride in the other, means you're stacking your rewards. Nice. Get up to 5% cash back with Venmo Stash on your favorite brands when

you pay with your Venmo debit card. From takeout to ride shares, entertainment and more. Pick a bundle with your go-toes and start earning cash back at those brands. Do more stash, get more cash. Venmo Stash bundle terms and exclusions apply. See terms at Venmo.com.combe slash stash terms, max $100 cash back per month. On-deck is built to back small businesses like yours. Whether you're buying equipment, expanding your team or bridging cash flow gaps. OnDex loans up to $400,000 help make it happen fast. Rated A-plus by the Better Business Bureau

and earning thousands of five-star trust pilot reviews. OnDec delivers funding you can count on. Apply in minutes at ondac.com. Depending on certain loan attributes, your business loan may be issued by OnDec or Celtic Bank. On-Dec does not lend in North Dakota. All loans and amount subject to lender approval. You're listening to...

What are we waiting for? Well, what are you waiting for? One, two, ready, go. In the Gester's Edge with Gary Kaltba. All right. Let's do one more thing on the election. Anybody know who Joe Scarborough is? I believe he was a Republican politician.

He now has this show in the morning, Morning Joe, and he hates Trump. A lot of people hate Trump. I don't watch the show. But as I tell you, I always get little bits and pieces and videos of segments from these shows. And it's quite comedic every now and then. Let me quote Joe Scarborough today. If you are a capitalist, if you believe in American capitalism, you must support Kamala Harris.

Capitalism. You know what capitalism is, right? Free markets. Getting out of the people's way. Where have you heard that from? So let's just take the temperature here. Kamala Harris with Biden, two trillion dollar yearly deficits, amped up the size of government beyond the beyond. Beyond the beyond. Justice Department stopping mergers and going after companies with subpoena is the latest NVIDIA. They stopped the JetBlue Spirit airline merger. airline stock is like two bucks now and potentially they're going to be out instead of letting just JetBlue take them over, floating wealth taxes, unrealized capital gains taxes,

long-term capital gains taxes going up, though Vice President Harris is saying we're not going to do what Joe Biden wanted to do, let the Trump tax cuts expire. And I was also thinking to myself, say, wait a minute, hold on. How can she give tax cuts to small businesses? Isn't that going to explode the deficits? You see, they're saying Trump's tax cuts were bad because they exploded. Oh, that's right. Only when they do tax cuts are they good.

But back on Joe Scarborough, that one sentence is why you just can't watch. They're just bull crap artists. That's what these people are. They will say anything that is just so flies in the, the face of reality and do it with a straight face because they don't give a crap. The guy probably makes a few million bucks a year. Maybe, who knows, maybe $5, $10 million a year to just throw bull crap at you. Good for him.

God bless him. Hope he makes a mint. But with people like me who is so open-minded and really do believe in capitalism, no cred, zero. as John Vernon said 0.0. Okay, the second biggest question I get down. What if the Fed lowers rates and the market goes down? I guess there's an expectation that because the Fed's going to lower rates, the market has to go up. Well, I must tell you, I really am not in any camp except to say I do know one thing.

it is a 100% certainty that Wall Street already knows he's lowering rates and it's a pretty high up there certainty not going to say 100 that the market's already moved on it and I think there's a really good component in there now of markets may be looking at other things because guess what

he's going to go from 5 and a quarter on the low end to 5 maybe he goes four and three quarters the 10 year is at three and three quarters he's not even on the playing field so there is that potential lowers rate sells off the other questions I'm getting

oh it's an election year we'll have a good end of year because election year I don't buy into that I've seen election years that sucked what we're going to do here is just let the market decide. We'll let you know what's leading, what's lagging right now decisively. Just decisively right now.

The market is the money flows, the big money, the institutions are betting on slower growth. The new yearly high list is laden with utilities, food, beverage, tobacco, household products, some drugs and medicals, insurance, which tend to be defensive. Managed care tends to be defensive. And we'll see how it plays out. The S&P now has a better return this year than the NASDAQ. Money flowing away from there. And that's the big story right now.

And if it changes, we'll let you know. All we're doing every night is our scans. find out what's leading, what's lagging, and just try to stay on, but I must tell you, since the recent high, and then the meltdown, and then the V shape up, and now yesterday, it has been a very tough bunch of weeks. Very tough.

Eventually it'll calm down. Life will be easier, and we'll see what we can find. And back on NVIDIA, Mui importante, that thing starts to hold up. Simple as that. The AI stocks, the artificial intelligence stocks, are under some pretty good pressure. In spite of the analysts yelping away at them. And just remember, analysts, they won't change their stance until something's down 50%. Why? They don't. They, think they're omnipotent. And if there's one rule we follow, one rule, the market's smarter than us. Stay tuned. You'll have a great evening, drive carefully. I'll be on with Varnie and company, 10 a.m. hour, Fox Business Network tomorrow. Don't miss it. Same time tomorrow, this show.

And again, drive carefully when you get home. Do like we do. Quite simple. Make sure you hug your family. Make sure you hug your children. Make sure you hug your parents. They'll all feel better. You will feel better. Stay well, be well. Peace out. Serenity now. Good night. This has been Investors Edge with Gary Cult Bomb on BizTalk. To listen to past episodes or to get in contact with Gary, go to GaryK.com. That's GaryK.com. Success starts with your drive. An American Public University is here to fuel it. With affordable tuition and over 200 flexible online programs, APU helps you gain the skills and confidence to move forward. Whether you're changing careers, starting fresh, or pursuing a lifelong passion,

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