Investor's Edge with Gary Kaltbaum - Watch oil [07.14.2026]

Episode Date: July 14, 2026

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Investor's Edge with Gary Coltbaum. Straight talk about you and your money. Now from the BizTalk Studios, here is Gary Cultbaum. And welcome once again to Investors Edge. I'm Gary Coltbaum, your host. A thanks of being with us today. Glad you here, ladies and gentlemen. Happy that you are listening.

It's July 14th. It's 2006. Hope you're having a good day. As always, serious talk on everything that affects you. No, agenda, ulterior motive or bias. And you know what we mean by that. We'll discuss markets, the economy, your job, your industry, Washington, D.C. and their corruption and wars and debt and deficits and, you know, whatever else that affects you.

And we're going to be a little bit on the pointed side today. Hope you don't mind. But we only deal in facts. and if you do not get this radio show in your city, we'll post it at garyk.com. We'll also post it on our X feed. If you don't follow us on X, you should. Just put our name in.

If you'd like to email us, just be nice. Be respectful. We'll be nice and respectful back. Unless you tell us you like Hamas. Or you're a fan of Adolf Hitler's. You get the point, right? Where do I want to start? oil prices were up a little bit today.

Nothing big. They're still back and forth going on with Iran. There was an inflation report that came out today, much better than expected. Why would inflation number be better? I believe I'm going to have to double check, but I'm pretty sure the lower oil prices are in that. And because of that, yields came down also, but oil was up because there's still a lot of crap going on. in the Middle East. Unfortunately, I have to report that our president, my president, was absolutely full of crap again today.

And I wish it would stop. We had four years of Joe Biden. We just, I don't understand why they can't tell the truth. I guess it's against their religion or something. So the latest and has to do with you and oil prices is that the president had promised had told us that he controls the straight of Hormuz, which matters a lot, but he does not. He also came out and said he's going to charge a 20% fee anybody going through it. He is not.

Number one, you cannot do that in international waters. Even the Rubio came out last week and said, that's an impossibility. and instead of Trump coming out and just saying, we decided against it or no, it's not a possible thing to do, he comes out and says, I got calls from different countries and kings and amirs and all the people that we love. And they said, get this,

we'd love to do it a different way. Please don't fee us, Mr. President, but we'll just spend billions of, dollars in your country as opposed to charging a fee. So let me be clear. That is a lie. There is no heads of state calling up the president and saying, please don't charge me a fee when they know they can't charge a fee and they wouldn't pay a fee. And not one of them called and said, oh, we're going to spend all this money in the United States. So that's not occurring. It's nauseating. And we got more than two years left of this.

unfortunately and you know the amazing thing all you got to do is tell the truth why does this matter because we just don't know where this is going and we don't know how it's going it's going to affect things the chalk is there's no way we're going to really escalate it to the point where we were because oil prices at 100 110 that really affect things as we move forward so I don't think that's going to happen. The story today helping the market was the inflation number. I must tell you again, I was very busy today. I did not go through it, but I'm pretty sure it was the oil prices that did it.

Amazingly that one of the reports excludes food and energy that's kind of weird. I've never understood that. The other thing today, as you know, we don't think there should be a central bank. We have yet to hear. I don't think we've heard. What do they actually do for you? Do they create a job? Do they produce anything?

My opinion, all they've ever done is cause problems. And we always say less is more. So I noticed today the new head of the central bank, Warsh. And I worry. The biggest problem we had with Powell is he played God with markets. We've highlighted for you. And he also played God with the bond market, which we believe to this day has caused problems with the house.

market. Kevin Warsh today, let me just quote him, if the Fed gets policy right and the Fed will, meaning get policy right, then the inflation surge of the less seven years will be a thing of the past. And I'm thinking to myself, do we have another person running the Fed that think they're God? does he really think he can control an economy that is upwards of, I think, $30 trillion now? It's amazing. He thinks he can control the economy. U.S. economy size on putting in $32 trillion on a seasonally adjusted basis. Well, you know that Powell did, and he really screwed things up.

son we have another guy that's saying we're going to they can't control things they can only screw things up it's worrisome all I can tell you is that Powell in the last year did things right in spite of the president's screaming and cursing them out he didn't not do a lot he got the their rates down to three and a half and right now the 10 year yield is at 4-6 so they are below the 10 year yield, the 30 year is almost 5-1. So I think they're in the right spot. I don't think they have anything to do. I think leave things alone.

And the amazing thing, they just do not trust the economy to do its bidding because they think they're God. And again, it's tiresome. And I'm hoping, I'm hoping this guy doesn't get crazy. but when I see quotes like that, I get worried. Next, well, in case you do not know, right now it's about 351, so the market's going to close in nine minutes.

But as of right now, and I'm not making this up, Goldman Sachs is up the equivalent of 610 Dow points on their earnings, which were fantastic. And as you know, they make a lot of money off trading, and I guess they did pretty good job of that. Not making it up. It's up 94 right now. 611 points of Dow points,

but the Dow is only up 48 as I speak, and it's going to close in about eight minutes. What gives? IBM is down 74 points. 74 times 6.5. IBM is down 480 Dow points. Therein lies the situation. And by the way, if that is not a lesson about earnings, I don't know what is.

Two Dow stocks, one is up 611 Dow points. The other one's down 480 Dow points. Amazing, huh? IBM misnumbers, Goldman Sachs, Blue Way numbers. And remember, Goldman Sachs again, this is not a rip. It's a fact. They're one of the great bookies on Earth. And they trade both ways, whatever they do.

I did not read what caused it. All I can tell you is that Goldman Sachs had a great report, beat estimates pretty handily. I'm looking around net revenues, global banking and markets with $15.5 billion, 53% higher than second quarter last year, and 22% higher than the first quarter, which is amazing. Global banking and markets. Good on them. So that is the story today as far as the Dow, which is only up 50 right now, which is kind of amazing considering. But also, J.P. Morgan is in the Dow. They reported that's up $8.

That's a measly 50 Dow points. Up next, we'll go through the rest because there's a few more and much more. This is the one and only investors end. Hi, I'm Gary Kalbaum, hosted a nationally syndicated radio show Investors Edge. We're not just handsome radio people. We manage investors' money for a living, specializing in fee-based discretionary money management. No big commissions, just a fee on the assets that's managed.

We also provide a full range of personalized services, including retirement planning, fixed income, and educational needs, all to assist you in achieving your financial goals. Understanding not all individuals have the same needs, will carefully evaluate your personal goals to determine a proper investment strategy. If your current approach to investing is not getting you to where you would like to be, call us to make an appointment for a complementary portfolio review. The number to call is 888-4-2-5-59.

That's 8-58-5-59. That's 888-4-22-55-59. Investment advisory services offered through call-bomb Capital. management. It's time to switch on the integrator units and get the brain cells working. You're listening to. Hey, this promises to be fun. Investors Edge. The last bastion of quality programming with Gary Coltbaum. It doesn't get better than this. And welcome once again to Investors Edge. So that's a story in itself. Goldman One Way, IBM the other way. I looked at IBM's numbers and I was actually surprised it was down that much. The numbers were not good. They missed numbers, but I'm still surprised it was down

that was down eight pre-market, then it was up nine, then it was only up three and a half. It's up eight as I speak. So that's a big help. Bank America's up a little bit. Wells Fargo's down a little bit. These are all earnings. City Group, though, was up, I think three bucks at one time. It's down seven. So Citigroup reversed badly on very heavy. volume so some up some down but the big story is Goldman and by the way as I speak in the market's going towards the close Goldman's up 96 60 96.6 times 6.5 628 down points and I think the divisor is about six and a half it moves a little bit here and there but also there's another story today you know how we tell

you we don't have an edge in IPOs initial public offerings initially. For example, SpaceX. Well, they came out with this South Korea stock, South Korea Hynix, SK. Hynix, SK.H.Y is the symbol. So they bring it out. It was a 149 deal. Yesterday hit a higher-W-Y. Yesterday hit a higher 177 closed it 168, two days ago, I'm sorry. Yesterday they gap it down. It was down like 16 bucks, like 9, 10%, whatever it is. And I must tell you, I don't see any news. I don't see any news.

The only news I saw was an analyst initiated with a buy recommendation, which can move for something. stock, that's okay. Oh, excuse me, initiated with an overweight. The stock is up $41 today to $194. I must tell you, I wish I had an edge on it, but after two days of trading. Oh, and by the way, they gapped it up today. Let's see how much they gapped it up. Closed it one. 5235. Now they only gaped it up 14, but it's up 40 and a half. Dang.

And I have no news. So that's a story today. And that is a computer hardware peripherals, AI thing of a bob that really moves the South Korea market. So beats the heck out of me. So it's helped the semi-conduct. As I speak, the socks is up 325. It was up better. But a word of caution, twice today we went through 100 semiconductor stocks. And after the close, we'll do it a third time. It takes me five minutes. Most of the semiconductor stocks do not look great. Most did gap up a bit today. But most of them are still trading below the 50-day moving average.

Patterns widened loose. So I'm a little bit wary, some stronger than others, some much weaker than others. So we'll see. But boy, oh boy, that S.K. Heinex, I'm going to do some legwork after the market and try to figure out what was the news. But the big story is Goldman up. JP Morgan up, IBM down, and the SK Hynix, dang, I wish I had an edge. Speaking of not having an edge, SpaceX down another $3 today to $136. Everybody who bought the aftermarkets losing money, and if you bought the highs of the second day,

quite a lot, and hopefully you're not in that. said, we have no edge. The one little thing we said was, oh, just so you know, for a few days, it's holding 150. If it breaks 150, that could invite selling because everybody's losing money. That's it. That's all we saw at the time. And again, valuation matters. The space stocks have been hit hard too. though I think they're bouncing a little bit today. I wouldn't go near them. That's the story today. And of course, the thing with Iran,

who the hell knows where it's going to end up. By the way, the Dow only finished up 10 today with Goldman Sachs' 610 Dow points. Quite amazing. Wow. And no, I don't own any Goldman Sachs. I have in the past, but I don't own it now. And tomorrow, Black Rock, Bank of New York Mellon, M&T Bank, Morgan Stanley, PNC Bank,

besides the financials, ASML Holdings, that's going to be an interesting one for the semiconductors. Elevance, managed care, Johnson and Johnson in the Dow, which has been strong. but the pharmaceutical stocks under pressure lasts two or three days. And again, we wonder if they have the earnings power. But there were other things going on today in the market. By the way, the Dow finished up 10, NASDAQ 233, NASDAQ 100, 322, socks up 314. transports were kind of flat.

The, and as I said, the semis and artificial intelligence wasn't thrilled with how they traded today, maybe tomorrow is another day. When they're up bigger early and not as high late, a little bit of a worrisome sign,

but we'll see. Remember, we're open to all out comes, but when patterns play out and defined uptrends or downtrends, do their thing, just remember that. That's all we're looking for. Definition. Software. IBM said something about software security, about the spend.

And what have we been worried about in artificial intelligence? All the announcements about the spend. because we wonder how are they going to do all this spend? But IBM today announced that software, software security, a lot more spending. Guess what happened to software security stocks today? Strong. We'll cover that next. On this the one and only investors end.

You're listening to America is talking. Investors Edge. He's got to be pleased with that. The crowd is just on his feet here. He's a Cinderella boy. With Gary Colbomb. It comes highly recommended. You're going to feel better if you talk to him.

And walk once again to Investors Edge. So just a company saying the spend on something is going to be higher or better. Crowd strike up 12% today. Palo Alto Networks up almost 7% today. These are software security companies. Fortinet, about 4% today. How about, let's see, I know there's others. Octa, OKTA, almost 11% today.

So just letting you know, really good day. for the software security, whether it lasts or not beats the heck out of me, we shall see. I got asked by a few, is there any number SpaceX you would buy it? Well, I'm not a big believer

of, I'm not a genius on valuation unless it goes to the real extremes. And as you know, we, Rivian, long time ago, beyond meat. And there's been others where just, we've considered to be outrageous valuations. All we can tell you, we just think the valuations outrageous currently, not for the future, but currently.

And we have just been amazed with us, SpaceX. I watch so many people walk on TV and nonchalantly say, oh, I'm not worried about that. What? And I always try to channel Warren Buffett on valuations. Always try to channel him. Imagine what he's saying. And, you know, by the way, he was asked about this and he said,

very tough to bet against Elon, but, and he put the butt out there. And the bud is $2 trillion market cap. So I don't have a number. I have a price when price dictates. A number when number dictates. I got to see it put in a definable low, a definable bottom. And that's obviously not happened.

And our little thought process, just based on precedent that, you know, if it breaks the 150 where they opened it, it could invite selling from those people, and that's what's happened. Leave no doubt that's what's going on. And when you have valuation like that, what else today? Gold bounced, Bitcoin, Bitcoin bounced. And as we said to you on the Bitcoin, acting better, meaning it's stopped going down.

I can have a case here for one, two, three, four, five, six into the seventh week of not going down anymore and flattening out. I'd give it that. And we'll see if it decides to put a little stair step to the upside, which it did back in April before saying good night again. And that's just another one. where we safely say, we hope you listened. Because between that and micro strategy and Coinbase and some of the other BS that came out,

dealing with crypto, you know, there's some 90% drops in the last year. Untouted things. I'm not going to mention them today. What are we going to be watching for here? Well, oil prices with Iran and earnings. Oil prices will dictate yields. Earnings will dictate individual names like Goldman Sachs being up 94, but IBM being down 73. Or Citigroup being down 7.5, but J.P. Morgan being up 8.

And I already got emails. How did J.P. Morgan open up down $8 and finish up? up a I don't know I guess they thought about it and when I say you all these artificial intelligence and semiconductor stocks are trading below the 50 day just remember you cannot ascend you cannot ascend in price if you're below the 50-day moving average it is a physical impossibility weakness today restaurants pulled back had a rough day, consumer staples rough day, retail continues to stink. I got a couple of

retail names out of like a hundred that I follow. It just continues to stink. Medical rough day, the pharmaceuticals that were trying. See ya. Hospital stocks crumbled today with oil prices up. Airlines having a little bit of trouble, casinos a little bit of trouble, cruise lines with some trouble. Anything else stick out? Again, good day for financials, nothing spectacular, not so bad for economically sensitive. Just semis were mostly all green, but off the highs. And I wasn't that impressed. But again, that can change tomorrow. Impressive was this S.K. Hynix? By the way, it's down five bucks in the aftermarket as I speak. Who the hell knows? It's crazy land out there. In other news, well, one of our favorite lines is money, capital, people,

business, will flow to where it's treated best. You know that, right? That's not hard to figure out. I've said many times on this show and on my TV appearances, man, if I was running a city or a state and taxes were too high, I would lower the taxes, especially if businesses and people were leaving. Well, just letting you know, New York City,

the share of U.S. millionaires, New York, declined causing a nearly $11 billion loss in tax revenue in just the last year. You do know everything they do is higher taxes, higher fees, more restrictions. They're proud to say tax the rich. The share of millionaire and New York is a fat, I don't know if you, if you haven't been, New York is fabulous. New York City is fabulous. And I just want to If I'm running New Jersey and New York is raising taxes, I'm going to lower taxes and put up billboards saying, come to New Jersey.

It's been said that the greatest real estate broker for Florida are these governors and mayors of states and cities that continue to want to dip. into people's pockets and pull their money out. And that's what's happened. It's amazing to watch. And you know it's about control. It really isn't about the money. How do we know this? They all see what's happening. They all see the states and cities that have the lowest taxes and treat people best are doing much better than the ones that. are raising taxes and give the middle finger to their citizens. So why wouldn't they follow the right path? It's called control.

They want to just control things. They like stamping on people's heads. Socialist, Marxist, communists, they hate. And hates a big word here, but we use it. They hate wealth and success because wealth and success do not need them. So New York, the numbers tell you everything. Up next, other news of the day, anything else. I'm Gary.

This is the one that only Investor's Edge. You're listening to. What are we waiting for? Well, what are you waiting for? One, two, ready, go. Action! In Investors Edge with Gary Culper. Speaking of that, article Washington Post, progressives convinced that the political appetite for a national wealth tax on the ultra-rich is stronger than it has been in years.

Let me tell you a plan they have. A 5% tax on household net worth over $50 million and 10% on net wealth over $250 million. dollars. These people are insane. Let me explain the insanity. You're already taxed. This would be double tax. It's crazy. And here's the amazing part. They've tried it in other countries and got rid of it. Norway did it. The expectations was to bring in a certain amount of bucks. They lost much more than they thought they were going to make because everybody left. They're thinking if you got 250 million, they're going to just take 25 million bucks from you. And if it's in real estate, sell it.

They're insane. It's lunacy. And they know it doesn't work. And they're still all over it trying to get it done. And they think there's a chance because they're very good at marketing it. We'll see. In other news, and again, more disappointment. And I don't understand this.

The lead investor in a South Korean aluminum company made a $2 million payment last year to President Trump's holding company. These people have business with the government. This is insanity. And the president doesn't seem to care, and the president's sons don't seem to care? They've made billions. They've made billions off of the government.

It's disheartening. This is what they do. This is what Putin does. This is what Maduro and Chavez did. plundered because they ran things. I don't even know what to say. And again, we ripped Biden for doing it. We don't care what party it is. It's just amazing that I have to read this and to you. And as we've said, I want great things from our leaders. I want great things. I want great things. I'll be glad as hell to come on this show and praise the hell out of our leadership.

But how does one do that? How does one do that? Tell me how. Email me. Tell me how. They're plundering. On another note, it took judges to stop the plundering of that $1.7 billion. was going to be a taxpayer giveaway to the president on a lawsuit that if he'd win it,

he'd win a few bucks. He was going to take $1.7 billion of our tax dollars. And he accepted his jet also. It's again, I'd love to be on here with the big compliments when he closed the border. I was yelling a plus plus plus every day. But he doesn't care. And we're going to keep reporting it as

we move forward. If he does great things, we're going to report it. If he keeps this up, we're going to report it. Simple as that. Back on markets. I'm watching the semiconductors closely and the

artificial intelligence trade closely. They were leading. They're not right now. I'm not thrilled today, even though the SOX was up 314, and the NASDAQ was up 233. As I have said to you, and when we do our little simple arithmetic,

if there was only 100 stocks in the market, well, we know how many stocks there are in the semiconductor land. We know how many in AI. Most of them are trading funky now. Wide and loose today, another one of those days. We do recognize when earnings come out, a bad stock can turn good, a good stock can turn bad.

We'll see how that goes. But we think, we'll see. A lot of tops in place in semiconductor and artificial intelligence. land. A lot of them. A lot of them trading below moving averages and support levels. A lot. And the best of are trading just above that 50-day moving average. And let's hope they are not taken out. Stay tuned. As far as the rest of the market, well, everybody is going to be reporting soon. And we hope there'll be a lot more Goldman Sachs versus IBM.

EMS. Simple as that. And as we've stated, we have no clue reactions to earnings. You have a great evening. Drive carefully when you get home, do like we do quite simple. Make sure you hug your family. Hug your children. They will feel better. You will feel better. I promise stay well. Be well. Thanks for joining. Have a great night. Bye bye. This has been Investor's Edge with Gary Coltbaum on BizTalk. To listen to past episodes or to get in contact with Gary. Go to Gary K.com. That's GaryKey.com.