Investor's Edge with Gary Kaltbaum - We warned you!
Episode Date: October 3, 2023https://garykaltbaum.com/...
Transcript
Discussion (0)
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Investor's Edge with Gary Coltbaum.
Straight talk about you and your money.
Now from the BizTalk Studios, here is Gary Cultbaum.
And welcome once again to Investors Edge.
I'm Gary Colbom, your host.
A thanks of being with us today.
Glad you hear, ladies and gentlemen, happy that you are listening.
It is Tuesday, October 3, 2020, and ladies and gentlemen, as we said yesterday,
we are more than ever dead serious.
with what we do here.
We're not messing around.
We're not screwing around.
We have no interest in comedy right now,
though we're quite the comic every now and then.
For starters,
I don't know if you know this or not,
but there's a whole thing going on,
the Republican Party,
to get rid of the Speaker of the House
and get somebody else in there.
The reason being is one man, Matt Gates.
He's from Florida.
I believe Pensacola.
There's a rule where you can go,
one person can do,
do that and then it gets voted on.
And since
most Democrats
would vote him out,
there is a slim
majority in the Republicans
to remove him. Now I have to
tell you, Matt Gates,
you can take him or leave him when it comes to what
I, me. Take
him or leave him. I have never
been thrilled with him. Don't like his
demeanor. Nice
close. But
today, as I am sitting here
watching the market collapse, and we'll get to that in two minutes. He's the only one who made
sense. You know, each get to go up there and state their case why and why not. And I'm sitting
near listening to him. I'm thinking to myself, has he been listening to my radio show? Has he
been watching me on TV? Because all he was talking about is McCarthy, the Speaker of the House,
had the House pass, help the Democrats pass a budget, $2 trillion deficit this year.
It's a freaking crime.
It is a sin.
It is a kick in the grapefruits, almost, almost, to the American public and the taxpayer.
And he's out there time and time again, stating it over and over again.
And the people that are defending McCarthy, God bless the.
them to trying to defend them. There is no defense. If I was the Speaker of the House as we went
into this session for the budget, I would have taken out the biggest certain finger and just
shoved it right in the White House's face. We ain't voting. You're screwed. Either you lower
your spending or that's it. Nope, they voted. Two trillion plus deficit this year.
And just so you know, this Marxist in the White House, what he has done, he has taken federal spending from the year before COVID.
Just remember, the years after there was COVID spending from $4.4 trillion, it's going to be like $6.6 this year.
And that whole move up is debt.
Joe Biden should be impeached just for that.
Forget all his corrupt crap with his son and his influence peddling.
forget all that just for what he did with our treasure
so Matt Gates is out there I'm like wow he sounds like me
he's right
the Republicans should have told Biden could stuff it
and they should have bought an hour of prime time in each channel
and put up two posters
one of our debt and our deficits
and the other of the federal spending proposed.
And then I'd put a third one up there of the deficits and the debt
since Biden was in Washington, D.C.
And then just showed the American public where that money was going to go.
$380 billion, handed out to one man to dole out for climate.
Are you freaking kidding me?
when you have homeless and poverty and kids that are going hungry,
$380 billion given to a Democrat hack
to dole out to people that are friends and relatives
and cronies and compatriots for climate?
It's sick.
It's sickening.
And the Republicans had the chance
to stick them right where the sun don't shine.
Seriously. Maybe one time say Biden up yours ain't happening. Nope, McCarthy got it through.
And now they're wondering why somebody wants McCarthy out. I'm not.
Okay. Yesterday, we're like a soap opera. You know what soap operas do? They go, they do stories.
and they try to attach the story and move forward with the story.
What we do is we tell the story of the markets,
but we don't let you hang on the cliff, you know, the cliffhangers.
We really just walk you through where the markets are,
and we use certain very specific terminology.
We would avoid these areas.
Specific.
Here is where the leadership is.
Specific.
We don't play footstead.
and when the market's getting trouble and we watch the miscreants on TV telling you,
don't worry, everything's okay, life is great, think long term, don't worry this, don't worry that.
I heard some bozo on TV today.
I mean, some of the crap that comes out of some of these people's mouths, it's ill.
But I digress.
What led up to yesterday with me starting the show with the first two segments going through again, explaining to you,
what if there were a hundred stocks in the whole market?
And 90 of them are dropping 10%.
But 10 of them are up 20%.
Well, you've got 90 stocks that are in bad shape,
but 10 of them are making everything look a little,
and the 10 have the big influence.
Well, our next thought was,
just letting you know the norm when that happens,
when most of the market is crapping out,
but a select few big names are getting all the money.
And the indices, the indices are holding up better than the average stock.
That is the big institutions.
We described it for you.
That's them de-risking.
Get me out of all this.
Park me here.
And we even mentioned an Apple because there's one point, how many shares outstanding?
1.56 billion shares outstanding.
So it's easy to trade in and out of it.
And also the so-called dependability.
But the outcome is simple.
And we told you the norm.
We even use the word the norm.
The norm is eventually they get those.
Under the weight of the weakness in the market, the continued weakness in the market, eventually they got to sell that.
And we didn't know when that would happen, but it happened today.
So we've had this crumbling market for weeks and weeks and weeks and we've described it specifically for you.
And we always say that we're not going to tell you what to do.
We're going to tell you what we see and what we think.
It's your money.
You guys go get to decide what you want to do with it.
And we have been describing for you each and every day.
Classic, classic bare markets.
classic trouble for markets
remember what we're about are knowing the characteristics
better than most
proven time and time again
not many better than us
in describing it also
you know it's one thing to know but another to convey
and what have we been doing just about daily
for each and every one of you
avoid avoid avoid avoid avoid avoid avoid avoid avoid more names breaking down more names breaking down new yearly highs none new yearly lows expanding
more breaking down more breaking down avoid avoid avoid avoid avoid and what are we said to in the last week
the only areas that are even bullish right now are coal aluminum and oils and even oils became a very mixed bag
meaning why are a bunch of these oils breaking down?
And of course we also describe what we thought was the culprit,
and that is the 10-year yield continuing to skyrocket
while oil prices also.
And why do we say that?
We're pretty smart.
It's simple, and you know,
if you're paying up the nose for energy and yields,
borrowing, credit card yields, mortgage rates,
auto loans, on top of the inflation, which, by the way, I don't want to treat you like you're stupid,
but you're getting a lot of BS.
Just so you know, prices aren't coming down.
The rate of the increase is coming down.
Just remember, if inflation was up 10% this year, but it's only up last year, but it's only up 4% this year,
Well, you're still up 10% plus 4%.
And of course, the other part of the equation, the bigger part, where people, much smarter
of us, don't have a clue.
Up next, we'll explain.
This is the one only Investor's Edge.
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called bomb it doesn't get better than this so we know there's still inflation out there we know
prices are still high but what have we stated that we thought the real problem was and nobody's
mentioning this it's the debt any company any entity that continues to pile on more and more debt
massive amounts of debt and needs to raise more debt to keep functioning the people that lend
that money to that entity are going to demand a higher yield.
That's economics 101, 102, 103, yet a yachts at the Fed said, I don't know why.
Rates on the long end ago. I'm like, what? And this guy's one of the central bankers.
And it's like scares the living crap out of you that one of our central bankers don't have the foggiest
idea of economics 101. So let me give you
a couple of numbers that will make cringe.
The Fed Funds rate in 2008.
This is what Jay Powell does, 5.5%.
His Fed funds rate today is back up to 5.5%.
There's only one problem.
In 2008, our total U.S. debt was $10 trillion.
dollars. Now, $33 trillion.
Interest payments back then that year were $380 billion. This year, $970 billion.
And of course, it's going to really accelerate from here. That's why rates are going
higher to account for the massive debt and deficits brought by these scumbags in Washington, D.C.
Gary, don't use the word scumbags. That's too harsh. No, it isn't. They're that.
bad. We're going to have an economic crash, a market crash, a debt crisis because of what
these people done over the last 10, 15, 20 years. And now we get the worst of all worlds,
this control freak Marxist in the White House to supersize the debt. And they're wondering,
and here's the other part of the equation. Listen carefully.
You got the other part of government.
Jay Powell, the head of the central bank, suppressed those yields with fake money.
Imagine this.
The greatest country in the world, the decision-making of a few, one man with no accountability or oversight,
created up to $9 trillion and suppressed yields.
Interfired with the biggest market in the world, our bond market, to take rates down to zero,
screwing Aunt Mary and Uncle Bob
and distorting everything.
To the point right now,
the biggest distortion
is nobody wants to sell a home
that's its 3% mortgage
to get an 8% mortgage on another home.
Who created that?
Jay Powell.
Who created the bubbles?
Jay Powell's.
Who created the inflation?
Jay Powell.
Who got the crypto flowing
because those are bubbles?
Jay Powell.
And now here's the shame of it all.
He don't matter anymore.
I loathe when I hear people on TV saying,
what is the Fed going to do next?
What is the Fed?
He doesn't matter.
He doesn't matter.
He doesn't matter.
He's in nothing now.
Yet everybody, what's he doing?
And what have we been saying for six months?
Just watch the 10-year yield and watch it keep going higher.
And guess what?
The 10-year yield hit 4.802 today, up a big stick point 1-9.
You know what that is?
Get me the hell out of the bond market.
Your debt is too much.
Your deficits are too much.
You're all freaking insane.
Do you know what countries are doing also that have owned our bonds forever?
They're getting out also.
Do you know why?
They see what I see.
The greatest country in the world is being destroyed by a select few people.
that have no accountability or oversight and a bunch of miscreants in
Washington DC debt is going to destroy us and markets are going to continue to
plunge and our job is just the read them and it's by no happenstance that
they're crumbling even more because we have described the market for you on a
daily basis little by little piece by piece inch by inch stock by stock
sector by sector until
They get the things that have held up best the big.
They've already crushed.
Crushed.
Tons various.
Crushed.
While some doofus on TV or a bull market.
They've crushed.
And as we've said to you, seven names have just been piled into by the institutions.
They meet in the morning.
Where can we park the money?
We have to be in stocks.
Well, let's go here.
Even IBM's been propped up.
Not anymore.
Now, I have no idea what tomorrow brings.
Remember that.
We say that all the time.
I have no idea what tomorrow brings.
We do know what the big picture is.
The main trends.
It worsened.
This didn't start today.
It has been a slow but steady deterioration in the markets,
and we've been describing it for you each and every day.
Each and every day.
and oil was up today and yields were up today.
What do you think is going to happen?
We got hit.
And as I look, they finally came after some of the big names.
Now, are they dead?
I don't know.
But they're over-owned, over-loved, over-leveraged, and over-priced.
What have we described Apple for you?
30-time earnings with no growth?
when normality for the past decade or so it's been 15 times earnings with growth
them dogs don't hunt
they better re-accelerate they better sell a lot of phones
I don't have good news for you I wish I did
there is nothing redeeming about what I am seeing
I will tell you before we give you the numbers the markets are definitively
oversold they're stretched to the downside now just near term though but not
longer term, and I'm not hearing enough, oh my goodness, what's going on here?
Because I think so many are attached to the big indices that have held up.
They've been hit, but they held up versus don't take a look at the chart of Bank America,
New Yearly low.
Oh, they have bazillions of losses because of Jay Powell.
Bank America, like other banks, went long on bonds because they could.
make money on short on bonds because of Jay Powell rigging and interfering with the markets,
taking them down to 0%.
Jay Powell is one of the worst people ever in our government, ever.
And by far, the distortions and the interference he created with the biggest market on earth,
a free market.
By the way, it's now free.
and it's yelling and screaming.
Up next, the numbers.
This is the one only investors' edge.
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What's in your wallet?
Terms apply.
Lounge access is subject to change.
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This episode is brought to you by Spreaker.
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Sprinker, because if you're going to talk to yourself for an hour, you might as well publish it.
The market is talking.
Investors edge.
He's got to be pleased with that.
The crowd is just on his feet here.
He's a Cinderella boy.
With Gary Colbomb.
It comes highly recommended.
You're going to feel better if you talk to him.
And before I get into the numbers to describe the market,
the equal weighted S&P 500.
That means each stock is equal to each other.
is down this year
is down
the reason why the
S&P's up because 23% of the S&P
is seven stocks
that money got parked into
in a big way
they better hold up
but as we told you before today
we said to you the eventuality
under the weight they get them
guess what today Amazon down
almost 5 to 124
Facebook
down almost six to 301.
Microsoft down 8.5 to 313.
NVIDIA down 13.
Everybody's yelling and screaming NVIDIA yesterday, and I'm like, ease up.
The 435, Tesla down 5 to 246.
Apple was only down a buck 35 to 172.
Adobe down 14 to 507.
They're getting them.
And that's what happened today.
And the market recognizes it.
That's all.
Now, again, let me repeat something.
I have no idea what happens tomorrow.
I don't.
But I'm going to give you some numbers.
We should write them down because today the Dow is down 431.
The Dow is down 431.
Now, guess what?
That's only about 1.3%.
But it's a big 1.3%.
And by the way, on heavy volume.
It hit a load today of 84, 86, about 516.
S&P down 59, NASDAQ 248, NASDAQ, 20272.
what did we just mention?
Transports 115.
Semiconductors down 72 to 3376.
You want to know the advanced declines?
They sucked.
And the NASDAQ advanced declines go deeper into bare markets.
Deeper into the bare market lows.
No, really.
While the NASDAX had a good move up.
because of a select few names.
It's the widest divergence I have ever seen.
Less so now.
On top of that,
New yearly highs in the market,
in real time,
I'm going to put them up on my screen right now.
Are you ready?
This is the New York and NASDAQ.
Point Biopharma was bought out today.
Horizon Therapeutics was bought out recently.
Costco, only one problem, was up four on the open to New Yearly High, finished down six, so not a New Yearly High at the close.
Jable Circuit, don't ask me why that's moved up on crappy numbers, but that's a New Yearly High, but it finished down today, so no longer a New Yearly High.
That's it. No new yearly highs. New yearly lows. New yearly lows. You ready for this? Now, mind you, these are individual names. Okay? Now, the new yearly low on the S&P yearly is a bunch farther down. Because you've got to go back a year last October when the market bottomed. You got that? There's a thousand and ninety-nine new yearly lows individually.
with the S&P still nicely above the lows of last October.
What does that mean?
Exactly what we've explained to you.
The average stock is much worse than the indices because of a select few names,
and that's that nice little 90-10 example that we give you.
What if those 10 stocks had major influence more than the whole night of the 90?
That's what's going on.
they're starting to play catch up
and if they worsen I can
promise you the big indices
the popular indices
oh they'll be talking about them more
simple as that
I just have to mention a few other things
because I got almost pissed off today
that somebody was on TV talking bullishly
bull markets
Russell 2000
oh don't worry it's only 2,000 stocks
is still down
not making this up
30 almost 30%
from November 21
30%
2,000 stocks
yeah I'm bullish
it's a bull market
Bank America
is back to the lows
of the Silicon Valley bank nonsense
and you know what's going on there
they have big losses
Goldman Sachs
same
Goldman Saches back to the Silicon Valley bank losses
and I can just go on and on
gold with a little teeny teeny bounce today
bearish oils mixed
some things are still bullish in oils
but more things went by the wayside today
as I scan the rest I got nothing else
let's see I got Kellogg's was up
49 cents today the stock is crashed
they crashed the cereal stock
by the way. Advanced declines on the New York, 615 up, 3431 down. NASDAQ 864 up 3256 down.
I told the fishmen two weeks ago, if any market could crash, it's this one. It's a slow motion
crumbling. Let me just say that. And if they continue now to get Amazon, Google, Facebook,
You got it. You got it.
So watch these numbers.
NASDAQ.
You really don't want to break.
We'll call it 12-9-63.
You really don't want to break through that.
You got me?
You really don't want to break through 14-4-3-2 on the NASDAQ 100.
That would be those big names continuing to come in.
I don't need to really go through other areas because so many
other areas are at relative lows. The S&P is already way below August and is now close to this
big 200-day moving average. Now, what is that? We always talk about the 50-day. Well, the 200-day
below that is hell. Once you get below that, we always tell you, once you break the 50-day moving
average, nothing good could happen but doesn't mean bad can happen and just sit there and turn back up.
Once you're below the 200th day, that means you're already down a lot.
And it usually means, oh, a bigger process to come.
So just letting you know the S&P is just above it now.
The Dow's below it.
But we always give a little less to the Dow because it's just 30 names, though, some influence there.
And may I state for the record they're crumbling some names.
They're crumbling Home Depot.
And lows, which is not in the Dow, why?
What do we tell you?
Avoid housing and housing related.
We actually called the top perfectly on that.
We owned it.
We bought the breakout to the day.
We sold the top to the day on that one.
Home Depot crumbling.
We mentioned Goldman Sachs is down another 12 today.
Oh, by the way, yeah, they matter.
They matter.
They're hitting American Express now.
Don't know why if you look at my American Express bills.
Oh, but I do.
Because credit card usage has been skyrocketing, but savings rates has been plunging,
which means credit card usage is going to slow down real soon.
Guess what else has been crumbling capital one financial and discovery financial?
Guess what else has just topped out recently, pretty decently, master card and visa.
One plus one equals two.
Why are we worried about the consumer?
Restaurants are plunging, retail are plunging, airlines.
cruise lines, hotels, plunging.
Discretionary.
Go look at the X-L-Y.
Big breakdown here.
These are discretionary stocks.
What do I have money to spend on?
So just letting you know,
wish I had something good to tell you.
I really don't.
I have no clue what happens tomorrow.
The only thing I can tell you,
we deteriorated more today.
and we've been seeing it for weeks.
And now it becomes what we call more apparent
because they're getting some of the big indices.
Nobody gives a crap if the Russell 2000 crashes,
as long as my beloved S&P 500 holds up
because that's what I own.
The SPY, the Vanguard this, you know,
that's all changing.
Up next.
This, that, and the other thing, or whatever else.
This is the one only investor's edge.
Guys, it's no use putting it off.
The best time for an underwear refresh is now.
Tommy John underwear is designed for a perfect fit that stays put all day.
Their zero-chafe thanks to four times more stretch than competing brands.
And their innovative horizontal quick-draw fly is a game changer.
With over 30 million pairs sold, there are thousands of men out there more comfortable than you.
Don't settle for less.
Go to Tommyjohn.com today for 25% off your first order with code comfort.
That's Tommyjohn.com code comfort.
Tommy John.
Comfort perfected.
This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card.
Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect,
like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect.
Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase,
bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination.
Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide.
The Capital One Venture X card.
What's in your wallet? Terms apply. Lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details.
This episode is brought to you by Spreaker. The platform responsible for a rapidly spreading condition known as podcast brain.
Symptoms include buying microphones you don't need, explaining RSS feeds to confused relatives, and saying things like, sorry, I can't talk right now, I'm editing audio.
If this sounds familiar, you're probably already a podcaster. The good news is Spreaker makes the whole process simple. You record your show,
Upload it once, and Spreaker distributes it everywhere people listen.
Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and about a dozen apps your cousin swears are the next big thing.
Even better, Spreaker helps you monetize your show with ads,
meaning your podcast might someday pay for, well, more microphones.
Start your show today at spreeker.com.
Spreaker, because if you're going to talk to yourself for an hour, you might as well publish it.
You're listening to.
What are we waiting for?
Well, what are you waiting for?
One.
Change, ready, go.
In the Gester's Edge with Gary Culpa.
Hey!
I just got an email from the Biden-Harris campaign.
All I need to do is give me a dollar,
and I can be entered into a contest that take my picture
with Joe and Jill Biden in Washington, the Sea,
all expenses paid for.
Yay!
Wow, that's so great.
Yay!
And you can tell them in a bad mood. Do you know why? Did you watch the Giants last night?
Oh, gosh. Do you know what Murphy's Law is? Murphy's Law. That's my New York Football Giants right now.
They actually look like there's a team there. They actually do. And then they go and lose 24-3.
Daniel Jones throws a terrible interception down at the other team's goal line.
That's returned for 97 yards.
The protection for Daniel Jones is an absolute horror show, and we're one in three.
But the good news is my fantasy league won finally.
I'm one in three this year.
And it turns out I may not have such a bad team.
I should be two and two.
There was a week I should have won.
If I played D'Andre Swift, I would have won that week.
but like a Dufus I played, who'd I play that week?
Breece Hall, who had four carries for eight yards
because the Jets refused to give him the ball
when I think this guy would be a studs superstar running back
if he ever had the ball.
Then again, they have no blocking, so.
And we'll see what happens.
But I do want to thank Josh Allen for having a big week for me.
So my fantasy, I am now one in three,
and we'll see where we go with that.
I also, again, want to thank everybody.
I mean, I'm getting a lot of emails just wishing my father well.
My wonderful wife ran up to New York City this morning, flew right back.
I mean, we came back Sunday to help out.
He's in one of these rehab places to get him better.
And boy, oh boy, my pops is a fighting man when it comes to, I can't even
get into. Let me put it best.
Frank Costanza
and George Costanza put together.
That's my father in a hospital
with a little bit of Kramer.
That's my father in a rehab slash hospital.
Where's my eye drops?
Anyway, again, really, from me to you,
those who have emailed and just thank you for the well-wishers.
really appreciate that.
In the news,
leave it to the New York Times.
And God bless it, they have some of the greatest journalists,
but unfortunately,
have a bunch of hacks at the New York Times
that just make crap up like it's gone out of style.
Now the climate crisis is also,
just make things up.
I don't want to get into the story they wrote.
But in case you don't know,
the climate crisis is now going to be,
causing everything that goes wrong with your life now.
I just want to let you know that.
You got that?
If you trip on a crack in a sidewalk, it is the climate crisis.
If your favorite baseball or football team loses, it's the climate that is doing it.
Just letting you know.
It's stunning.
And I just want you to remember, we don't have any bias, we have no agenda, we have no
ulterior motive, we deal in facts.
And they started with global cooling.
It's on the record.
You can go Google the front covers how they told you you were a bunch of ass clowns back then.
There was just no social media if you did not believe in global cooling.
Then they went to global warming.
And again, if you didn't believe in them, you were an ass clown.
And then it started to cool down.
So it was first cooling, then it got hot.
Then the hot turned to cooling.
Because you had blizzards across the world for a couple years.
They got into a room.
They got some whoever, whatever, whatever.
How do we market this better?
And they came up with climate change because if we're cold, it's climate change.
If it's hot and they're out to get your water.
Just remember, in order to get more of your money, they have to create a crisis.
So if it's really hot in the summer, it's a crisis.
If it's cold in the winter, it's crisis.
If there's a hurricane, it's a crisis.
If there's no hurricanes.
It's a crisis.
It's as simple as that.
And you know what?
Yeah, the summer was hotter than this year than most.
Now, what if it's cooler next summer than most?
Oh, that's climate change.
Just remember what you're dealing with,
ladies and gentlemen.
Big, you ever watch the Seinfeld episode, Manhands?
They're manhands,
and those hands are coming into your bank accounts,
into your wallets,
took all from a crisis,
And you know what is so unfortunate?
God bless our kids.
They're so impressionable.
They're being taught this crap.
These lies early on.
And they're in the soup, unfortunately.
They're in the soup of the bull crap.
We'll do our best to set straight.
I treat these people on the climate crisis as they say it,
and they're trying to get more of your money as bank robbers.
They're just bank robbery.
Just so you know, they're looking to have a global climate tax.
I don't know if you know this.
It's out there.
They're never going to get away with it here.
Well, I better be careful with that.
But it's out there.
Janet Yellen, our Treasury Secretary, is called for a global tax.
She should be fired immediately just for that.
Imagine, you want to pay taxes to other.
countries, your hard work? You know, I believe in backing Ukraine, but we still haven't gotten
an account for $1 of the billions we've sent to them. Don't you think you should have an
account? You as an American and your tax dollars going there? Just show us what it's for.
Where's it going? You think they even drew up a list? Hell no. Why would they do that?
Who cares about your tax dollars?
just letting you know, I'm bringing this up because New York Times did a whole other thing
that everything's being caused by the climate and the heat and the cold and the rain and the weather
and all that crap.
So hope you're listening.
Hey, I wish I had better news.
And again, we have no idea about tomorrow.
We just know the big picture worse than today.
You do have a great evening, though.
Drive carefully.
When you get home, do like we do.
It's quite simple.
Make sure you hug your family.
Make sure you hug your children.
They will feel better.
you will feel better. I promise. Thanks for joining. Bye-bye.
This has been Investor's Edge with Gary Cult Bomb on BizTalk. To listen to past episodes
or to get in contact with Gary, go to GaryK.com. That's GaryK.com.
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