Investor's Edge with Gary Kaltbaum - Week Ahead & Earnings [04.20.2026 w Adam Sarhan]

Episode Date: April 20, 2026

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Investor's Edge with Gary Coltbaum. Straight talk about you and your money. Now from the BizTalk Studios, here is Gary CultBomb. And welcome once again to Investors Edge. I'm Adam Sarhan in for Gary Kay, who's out today. Today is Monday, April 20th, 26. I still can't believe it's 26. And we have a great show for you tonight.

And as always, I want to thank you very much for being here. Before we dive into the show, just as a quick reminder, and this is a show about you and your money and all of the fun points in between. I try to keep it fun at least. If you don't get the show in your city, you can go to GaryK.com. You can listen live or archive. We are live Monday through Friday, 6 or 7 p.m. Eastern. Also at GaryK.com.

You can follow Gary on X, formerly known as Twitter, by just clicking a button. You can also subscribe to Gary's morning notes sent to your inbox every day for free. You may email Gary or if you want more, you can subscribe to Convictionleaders.com, which is his premium service. He updates members several times a day, does webcasts, showing your charts every day, and it's a really, really good report. So that said, I do have some notes from Gary, and then I'm going to dive in. The week ahead will be the title for this week, is just set in the stage, right? So that'll be where we are, but high level. Let's read the notes. So we're about as stretched and extended and overboard as a market can get in a short period of time. Pullbacks would be about as

normal as the sun rising in the east. All this is from Gary. The news over the weekend in the Middle East was not great, so oil prices are up on that news, which means yields are up, which puts a little pressure on things. Let's see here. The big indices pulled back a little bit today, but the smaller midcaps are still strong, and semiconductors are strong as well, especially some of the secondary ones are strong, and he's just not seeing any big problems as of yet. Now, final thing is let everyone know car, ticker symbol CAR, is making the transports look a lot stronger than they actually are because of the gigantic short squeeze that's happening in CAR. And it's something that Gary has mentioned before.

All right, those are all the notes directly from Gary. And I want to make sure I do my part as the messenger and share those notes verbatim with you. So as always, you know, you can decide. But high level, the market's extended, folks. And the way that we know levels of extension, by the way, up or down, two, three weeks ago, about three weeks ago now, the market was extended to the downside. Now it's extended to the upside. And what does that mean?

Simple. Odds favor, doesn't have to happen. Odds favor, we get a little bit of a counter trend rally. As of right now, you get a big move up. You're up almost every single day for the last 10, 13 days, whatever it was in the NASDAQ 100 on the QQQ. It's due for some backing and filling, some pullback, some, you know, consolidation. There's lots of words, digestion, whatever word.

words you want to use to describe it, it's due to pull back a little bit. First level I would watch would be the old chart highs from last October, which was a breakout point. In the NASDAQ 100, it was 637 and the QQ. In the S&P 500 or the SPY, let's look at the SPY because we could trade that. It's 697, 84, which was a high actually from just a few months ago, 689, 690 to 697. So let's just round it to 700 if you want. It's at 711 now. the SPY. And then if you look at the small caps, which by the way, are stronger on a year-to-date basis,

that probably is 271 area. I'd look at as a possible pull-back level because that was the high from just a few months ago in January when we were at 271-ish-yes. So right around there, now we're at 277, so let's see it pull-back.

If the latest breakout is negated, meaning it rolls over and it takes out the breakout point, the pivot point, and it rolls back over and it's negated, look at the 50-day moving average across the board. And the 21 days turning higher. It's still below the 50 in some of these indices. Some of them it's above, depending on what you're looking at.

Or it's getting above the 200-day for the SPY, but the 21-day still below the 50 there. And same with the cues. So, yeah, I'd watch the 50-day. And then in the next few days, at 21-day, I'll play catch-up and then it'll get there. So I'd watch that as well. So from my standpoint right now, the market's extended, folks. Real simple. It's due to pull back.

Now, does it mean it has to pull back? Absolutely not. The market can keep going up. And remember, extended markets tend to get more extended, both on the way up and on the way down. It's human nature, right? An object in motion, Newton taught us this, does what, stays in motion. Same thing here. Now, we get pullbacks. They happen. So be prepared for them. Just like a few weeks ago when the market was selling off so much, it was super extended to the downside and said, hey, Milton's very high likelihood we can rally. again, it doesn't have to, but it's about looking to the right of the chart, if you will, not just the left and anticipating. We don't predict here. At least I can't speak for anybody else.

I don't predict. I don't anticipate in a way of like forecasting and here's my magic number and it's got to hit. No, no, no, none of that stuff. It's just what's happening right now and then look at the probabilities of possible outcomes. And then stack them based on highest probability outcomes to lowest. Remember, any stock, any market, any. liquid investment in anything, crypto currencies, commodities, equities, it doesn't matter.

It can only do three things after you buy it. Go up down or sideways. That's it. Literally, that's it. Up, down, or sideways. After a huge move up, there's a high probability. Again, doesn't have to happen, but there's a high probability. The next move will be a pullback or a retracement. That's all. That's what Gary means by extended, right? So week ahead, we've got economic news. the ceasefire deadline, which is tomorrow. We'll see what happens there. Could get a deal done today. We'll see. The earnings, we've got about 15% of the S&P 500 report earnings this week. Some of the big stocks that report earnings this week are GE, D.R. Horton, Ruthian, Rtzeon, RtX, Halliburton, North of Grumman, United Health, which is a big Dowstock, UNH, 3M,

United Airlines, right? Tesla, that's tomorrow, Tuesday. Tesla on Wednesday, GEV, which is GE, Vernova, which is a nuclear spinoff of GE. Boeing, AT&T, CME group, Texas Instruments, Philip International, Philip Morris International, PM, Lamb Research, semiconductor LRCX is that one, service now, ticker symbol now, N-O-W, Southwest Airlines, L-U-V, IBM, ticker symbol IBM, Las Vegas Sands

and some others. Thursday. Oh, let me go back to that was Wednesday Thursday. Well, let me keep going on earnings and I'll come back to the economic news. Thursday we have Lockheed Martin, Freeport McNamare.

We have Next Era Energy, American Airlines, Blackstone Group, American Express, Intel, Baker Hughes, and then Friday, Procter Gamble, Hasbro, Gilead, Sciences, and a few others. It's a busy week for earnings. And by the way, there's a lot more companies reporting earnings. I'm just giving you some of the big ones. Economic news, big economic or geopolitical

news today and tomorrow's Seaspery deal, retail sales tomorrow Tuesday, March pending home sales data Tuesday. And then it's quiet Wednesday, quiet Thursday from the economic front. Friday, we have the Michigan inflation expectations for April. And that's it from the economic front. So the week ahead, we are, we have a lot of earnings. We are the general. We have the general. We are the geopolitical situation. If I had the guess, most likely an extension is going to come just based on everything I see. I could be dead wrong. There could be conflict. They could go back up again. They could fight. They could have a deal and be done. Who knows? But most likely, if I had the guess, we'd probably get an extension. As far as what's happening with earnings, it's the same, I get this

question every earning season. Adam, what do you think is going to happen with X, I have no idea what company is going to report or what it's going to do after reports. Look, Netflix reported earnings just recently and it gap down. Earnings versus expectation. Well, why? Read Hastings stepped down. Sure, he's a big guy that's credited for lifting the company up and having a huge visionary guy and just super fantastic. Okay. But it's the reaction to the news, folks, that matters more than the news itself. Same thing with the Iran war. Same thing with economic data. Same thing. Enter anything you want. Why? Because what shows up on our statement? The reaction to that news is the price. That's why with Gary and with me, Gary taught me 25 years ago. I used to listen to him on radio and AM radio in 98, 99, 2000, 2001, 2, 3, 4.

I listened on the podcast, but I still listen. And he's price. And he's right. What shows up on my statement, what shows up on your statement? It's price. So focus on price as being primary, everything else is being secondary. And there's a phenomenon in Wall Street where the market's a forward-looking mechanism and it moves before the news itself. The news comes out and then it sells off. By the rumor, sell the news. There's the adage on Wall Street. Oh, yeah, this just happened. I can't believe there's a ceasefire now and then the market sells off a little bit. Well, where do you've been for the last few weeks? That's how the market works. It's a forward-looking mechanism. And by definition. The news, economic data, earnings data, the ceasefire, whatever that news, it's

rearview mirror. Oh, I reported earnings last quarter. Okay, great. What about next quarter? What about this quarter? Markets a forward-looking mechanism. Once I understood that, whoa, that head emoji exploding, like the light bulb went off. Any of these emojis, if you want to use that as a mental image. It's helped me out a lot, these mental images. Wow, big sigh of relief. because I got clarity. I could understand, instead of being caught off guard, time, quarter in, quarter out, weekend, week out, so on and so forth. So I hope this helps.

Up next, I'm going to share a lot more about what I do during earnings, what to look for, what to look out for, and a lot more. I'm Adam Sarhan. This is the one and only Investor's Edge. Hi, I'm Gary Kalpom, hosted a nationally syndicated radio show Investors Edge. We're not just handsome radio people. We manage investors' money for a living, specializing in fee-based discretionary money management.

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Investors Edge. The last bastion of quality programming. With Gary Coltbaum. It doesn't get better than this. And welcome once again to Investors Edge. In case you're just joining us or missed any part of the show, you can go to GaryK.com, rewind, fast forward, listen on any device for free, 24-7. As long as you have internet, you're good to go. So, a few thoughts here.

Number one, the market's extended. Most likely we'll get a pullback at some point. after a big move up, there's really two ways the market can pull back or consolidate that move. One goes sideways, two, actually go down. So the key for me is to analyze the health of that decline and or that pullback. The pullback could go sideways, again, a consolidation or the pullback could go down where the market actually goes down for, let's say it goes up 10%, and then it goes down 2 or 3%. That's a pullback. So, and then it pauses for a little bit, and then it goes up.

again, hits new highs and keeps rallying. So that's typically how things work over a long period of time. Markets go up. There's an old adage that says markets take the stairs up and then the elevator down. Doesn't always happen that way, but oftentimes you see the market go up, sideways a little bit, sideways can be pulling back a little bit, and then go up again. So in a healthy bull market, again, just overgeneralizing here. So when you have a situation where there's, you

You know now we're extended. Okay, great. Doesn't mean that the pullback has to come today. We can rally again this week. We can get a deal done right now and then boom, take off and go to the moon. Okay, great. Or we can have a deal done and it sells off. Why would it sell off?

Buy the rumor sell than is. That's how markets work. Forward-looking mechanism, right? The ceasefire was discounted. We don't get a ceasefire and as an escalation or war or more bombs or whatever. Guess what? These have the market pullback aggressively. So the health of the pullback, folks, is what matters in my standard.

from my point of view right now. A healthy pullback would be shallow in both size and scope. Size would be a small percent decline. Scope would be short in duration. It doesn't last a long time. Some pullbacks last a few weeks. Some pullbacks last months and some go even whatever, right? The quarters or whatever it is, even longer. Short healthy pullbacks in both size and scope tend to illustrate the bulls are in control and we're probably going higher. Over time. I mean, that's just, again, over generalizing here.

So if we get a vicious, violent pullback full of distribution and heavy selling and, you know, like what we saw multiple times in the past, those of you've been around, have seen the market sell off heavy and just gets ugly fast, you know, that would not be bueno, like they say,

no, pointo. So, okay, that's that. If it's a short, shallow one or it goes sideways, great, even healthy. Now, it can go up even more and then consolidate. Eventually, Markets consolidate. That's my point that I want to make here. It's not every single time. It's over time.

Eventually, look for the health of that pullback. Now, if it's short and shallow, great. Odds are, it's probably going higher. It doesn't have to, but again, all about stacking the odds of success in our favor, looking at probabilities over a long enough period of time. for the violent pullback things can change if this breakout fails then we get some heavy selling and then this and then break out you know leaders start breaking down got a lot of stocks that gap down for earnings then a whole different demeanor I don't think that's the case I'm

in a very optimistic about hey we're in a bull market I'm very realistic as well I know in bull market surprises happen to the upside Typically, most of the time, not the downside. Sometimes, obviously, there are anomalies here, and sometimes you have surprises to the downside. But for the most, I'm just generally speaking, right? So we're in a bull market. Markets at all-time highs or just very near all-time highs. That's got to be respected.

What happened? Last year, Q1, market had to pull back because of tariffs. It bottomed in April, and then what happened? Shot up, rallied hard. I mean explosive rally from Q2, this time last year, April, all the way up until October, Q4. And then you really move sideways for the last six months. Okay. Then all of a sudden, boom, the war happens.

Great. Head of the end, the war is not over yet, but the market's pretty much forecasting a ceasefire. Cooler heads are going to prevail. Great. Boom. Market breaks out, hits new highs. And here we are. big huge rally in the last few weeks, just in the last two weeks, three weeks, huge rally.

Okay, great. Now what? It's either going to consolidate it goes sideways or pull back a little bit, go down. Or keep rallying. I mean, that's really that simple. But again, odds, right? It's all about probability. That's how we navigate the unknown.

The future by this definition is unknown. No one knows what will happen in the year from now in the market or in the economy or anything. You can have estimates or expectations, but guaranteed absolutely 1,000% certainty doesn't happen. So how do you interact with that? It's about, for me, being aligned with what's actually happening in the market. I know people that are really bearish right now. Markets at all-time highs. I know people that are really bullish right now.

Markers are all-time highs. Being aligned, what I use, the word harmony, is harmony with the market, is my plan. on the word harmony is really important. I fought the market for years, lost every single time. Markets can do whatever it wants to do. Question is, am I aligned with it? Yes or no. I want to be aligned with it.

That's how I make money. That's it. That's simple. Next, like Harry says, earning season. What do we do during earning season? Again, I hope that pullback point is made. So when the pullback does happen,

you're not sitting there. Oh my God, I can't believe the market just pull back. What just happened? So on and so forth. Again, it gives you a little bit of the ability to be like, oh, okay, I can't forecast or anticipate what the market's going to do, but I can anticipate how I'm going to react or I can plan for it. The market can only go up down or sideways. I can plan for all three of those scenarios. So when we do pull back, I'm not caught off guard.

That's the whole edge here, right? Next, earning season. What do I do during earning season? I get this question a lot. And really, the most important thing is separate the leaders from the laggards, the winners from the losers. And I mean that by the reaction to earning. A stock like Netflix that gaps down with Goldman Sachs are the same thing. It fell on earnings. To me, it's not the greatest thing in the world. But if it recovers and then it's higher a few days later, guess what? To me, that's a good sign because that tells me, like what happened with Goldman Sachs,

that oh, okay, you know, whatever, that short term was a knee-jerk reaction. We hit the 50 in rally. Now we're way above it. Great. Goldman-Sacks reported earnings on what day was. On the 13th of April. hit a low that day of 865, the high is 896. Right now it's at 938.

Blip on the radar because it recovered the very next day. That's drawn. Stocks that gap up, like Netflix, for example, had a huge gap down. Stocks that gap up during earning season and rally. Bueno, those are leaders. Stocks that get hit and stay down, like Netflix gap down and still early. It's only today, one day later, a few days later, still lower. Okay, great. Not the best.

Subtle signs of weakness there. So for those two, initially I had Goldman and the weak reaction, but it quickly recovered, so I moved it to the strong reaction. And again, these lists are fluid. They evolve based on how the stock is performing. Nope, there's a time up next. I'll share more about earnings season, how to navigate it, stacking the odds of success in our favor.

And a lot more, as always, I want to thank you very much for being here. This is the one and only investors. We're listening to America is talking Investors Edge He's got to be pleased with that The crowd is just on his feet here With Gary Coltob

Comes highly recommended You're gonna feel better if you talk to him And welcome once again to Investors Edge In case you're just joining us Or missed any part of the show You can go to GaryK.com Rewind, fast forward, listen live Or archive anytime on GaryK.com

All for free. All right. So we spoke about earning season, how to navigate it. I separate the winners from the losers. Every day, stocks gap up, stocks gap down. Pre-market, there's so much, right, 15% of the S&P's reporting this week, probably another 15 or so next week. And then week after, thousands of stocks are reporting earnings.

How do I make sense of it all? Well, for years, I would struggle with that. Finally, I just built a tool. This is, again, my tool, but it's free for anyone to use. You can sign up. There's a subscription. Take a trial if you like it. It's called market terminal.com.

The idea is that Wall Street uses terminals to win. All the big hedge funds have them for the most part. All the big banks use terminals. Great. I want to use one also. So I was able to take all the data, aggregate it, and simplify it. So just about anybody can use it. You can sign up and use it.

If you like it, great. If you don't like it, that's great too. But it helps me make sense of what's going on. Every day in real time, we have stocks breaking out. Every day in real time, we have stocks breaking down. We have stocks setting up the breakout. We've got stocks that are moving, moving up, moving down. We have stocks that gap up and gap down.

So this way I can see what stocks are moving, what stocks are breaking out, what stocks are breaking down, setups, all that in real time. I get fresh ideas. Earnings. I've got an earnings calendar. I've got AI built into the market terminal so you can see it right away. These are tools I have wanted for years. Extended hours. I have a tab where before the open and after the close, every single day.

day, I can see extended hour stocks breaking out. I can see extended hour stocks breaking down. I can see extended hour stocks that are moving up and extended hour stocks are moving down. In the pre-market, before the open or after hours, when you've got all these companies reporting earnings, I can click on one tab and see all the stocks that are moving, up or down more than 3%. Right away, stocks gaping up right at 930 in the open. 931, 932, 935.

Boom. I can see everything. It's extremely powerful. And then if I want to research, the left-hand side is to help you find ideas. The right-hand side is to do the research and go deep. So I want to see if Apple, somebody asked me today on the phone, why should I sign up to market terminal? He said, what's your favorite stock? He goes, Apple.

He said, do you know if their earnings are growing or declining? He said, I have no idea. Okay, that's why. Sales, are the company's revenues going up or going down? You know, the next three years, five years, two years. Right now, what are the company's numbers? Institutional investors. You have that number going up?

Big investors? Are there more people buying that stock every quarter? With 13 out filings or fewer people? Who are those big investors? Does Congress own my stock? Does Congress buying or selling? Insiders, buying or selling? All of that's available on market terminal for just about any stock that we have access to.

If we don't have access to data to, hey, we tell you, hey, Congress doesn't own it or the data is not available. That's it. Type an apple. And you can see. What's the income statement? If you want to go deep, great. I don't know about you, but I can't make heads or tails out of an Excel spreadsheet. So I visualized everything with simple charts.

Now I can see Mac sales are going down. Services is going up for Apple. Okay. Now when they report earnings or iPhone sales, here's what they're doing. iPad sales, so on and so forth. I can, again, have a better grasp visually in one second than sitting there trying to go through Excel spreadsheets and read all the stuff that by all means do it. It's just for me, for my brain, this works better for me.

So again, super simple in real time, stocks breaking out, setting up the breaking out, sorry, setting up before they break out. And some of the setups don't break out. Some of the breakouts fail. Some of the breakdowns fail. Just like normal, it's markets. All I want is just an easy way to see it right away. Earning season, which stocks are reporting earnings?

There's a tab. It says earnings calendar. So when you go through, whatever your process is, folks, I love to learn. So if you're new to me, you'll learn this is a common theme in my world. I love to learn. I know I don't know. It's my greatest strength in life. So I've got one job.

I tell my kids this. I tell everyone I work with. Same thing. Let's learn. That's it. Very simple. Learn. Okay.

Let's learn. So here we go. Discipline trumps just about anything else in life. If you can be relentlessly consistent, I was reading a book about Kobe Bryant to my kids. And the focus from such a young age on shooting that basketball and improving and getting better and going to the gym, Olympic player, All-Star player, the other people that are also All-Stars and Olympic players on the men's basketball team, he would get there to the gym before them. and stay after them. Outwork them. The discipline is magic, relentlessly consistent.

In fact, his coach, which was Michael Jordan's coach also and Dwayne Weeds, a great guy. His name is Tim Grover. I don't know him. I'm not affiliated with him, but he's got two books, which are fantastic. One's called Relentless. The other one's called Winning, and then the number one, because you're first place instead of I, and then N-N-I-N-I-N-G winners.

and he talks about winning attitude, winning mentality. The trade didn't work. Guess what? On to the next win. Michael Jordan wins the championship. Guess what? Instead of doing drugs and drinking and going partying and all this crazy stuff that the other guys would do, he went and focused to the gym the next day, 4 a.m., just shot free throws, practiced,

just focused on the next win. Next win. Enjoyed it, don't get me wrong, but just a relentless consistent. same thing process is more important than the specifics because if you have a good process in place the outcomes kind of not always but kind of take care of themselves so it's like oh should I go to the gym and do weights or do push-ups just get that habit of going to the gym or working out or exercising forget the gym just exercise let's get there after that what you do specifically frankly is second place why because the habit of you showing up every day or every other day or whatever

it is, a few times, whatever it works for you. I'm not giving any advice, not medical advice, not financial advice. This is all just based on my experience and sharing with the intention to help. Just do it. And then whatever you end up doing is going to help you. Should I do the push-ups, the sit-ups, the dumbbells, or this, okay, great, as long as you're doing the exercise, and of course, try to get the highest ROI out of that activity. So you get results. So, you know, if I want to get a six-pack, I'm not going to clap my hands a hundred times. It's not going to do anything. Do the sit-ups. Right? So, make sure the activity, the action you're taking is aligned with your desired outcome,

and then go out there and do it and do it again, and do it again, and do it again. And keep doing until you get the results. And if what you're doing is not working, adjust it. Same thing with investing and trading. I have a good trade, I have a bad trade. I'm now at the stage where I'm no longer emotionally attached to it. In the old days, I used to think I'm trading myself worth. I'm only good if I put up good trades.

And I would get really down on myself and hard on myself and beat myself up if I, you know, when, not if, when I would have losing trades. It's inevitable. It's going to happen. Now I understand, after years and years of doing this, beating myself up, there's no ROI doing that. I'm not doing that anymore. It's another one of those. Everybody that actively trades is going to have losing trades. Key is keep those losses small.

It's okay. Move on to the next one. Find your next win. Find your next win. Learn from that. How do I improve it? What did I do wrong? Was I emotionally trading?

Did I chase it? What did I do wrong? Stock just went from 185 to 230 and now I'm buying it. Yeah, that's not really a good idea. Right? Saying whatever the case is, whatever it is, lessons, your mistakes are your greatest teachers. If you're human, you're going to make mistakes. It's inevitable. We all make mistakes. Mistakes are our greatest teacher. Once we understand this, the whole mindset shifts. It's no longer beat myself up because I made a mistake. It's inevitable. You're going to make them. I'm going to make them. We're all going to make mistakes. We're human. Even AI and chat chip PT make mistakes. They've got big disclaimers that tell you they make mistakes. They make mistakes. They make mistakes. But what matters is what you do next. What you do next, folks, and that consistency to show up even when you don't feel like it. Do the work. Scan. For me, I check market terminal. A few times a day.

I want to see what stocks are breaking. It takes me 30 seconds now because technology is done. I used to take me hours to go through all the stocks and find the breakouts and write it down and then. But, you know, now it's just click. What stocks are setting up? Plan my next move. Here are my positions. Where's my entry point? How much am I, you know, go through the process? As long as I'm following my quote-unquote rules that work for me that I created for myself, great. There's going to be losses.

That's fine. It's going to be wins. Hopefully the wins are greater than the losses, the size of the win. Not the number of wins. The size of each win. Hopefully that's greater than the size of the losses. And then over time should have a positive expectancy is a fancy-shmancy word. of saying, hopefully you make money and your process works.

So hope this was helpful. Again, have a process, figure out a way to get ahead, and keep doing it. Up next, we've got a lot more to cover. I'm Adam Sarhan. This is the one and only Investor's Edge. You're listening to. What are we waiting for? Well, what are you waiting for?

One, two, ready, go. In Investors, Edge. with Gary Culper. And welcome once again to Investor's Edge. In case you're just joining us from just any part of the show, you can go to GaryKK.com, rewind, fast forward, listen at your convenience on any device you want, 24-7, anytime, anywhere. So a few things to keep in mind here. We have a market that's extended.

We have a busy week covered most of the important. things at the beginning of the show. You can rewind it if you missed it. And we've got the reaction to the news and a few things I look forward during earning season in the next few minutes before we wrap up that I want to share. So the reason why the reaction to the news, folks, is more important than the news itself is because that's what shows up on her statement. It's price. So, okay, company has really lousy earnings, but the stock goes up huge. Okay, well, what matters more? It's the price of the stock and the reaction. So that's what matters most to me. Not just the day one reaction, but the next few days, weeks, so on and so forth. And I keep lists, two lists,

winners and losers of earnings season based on the price percent change from earnings. So if the stock gaps down like Goldman Sachs, ticker symbols, GS, fell on earnings, found support and off the 50, and then rallied hard. And now it's way above where it was before earnings. That, to me, is a winner. At first it was a loser because it fell on earnings. And then I moved to the winning column very shortly thereafter when it started hitting new highs and started to run and got above where it was on that down day. So that's that's big, that list. And then for the next rest of the court, I'm going to add to it every week as more and more companies report earnings and I'm going adjust. And if the stocks just sit there and don't do anything, other stocks will work. Now, I

always want to find the leaders. That's for me, it's we make money when the stock goes up. What's a leading stock? A stock that's outperforming has strong relative strength, strong current strength, whatever word you want to use to explain it. It's just outperforming. Very simple, very strong. Okay, great. Next, right? Earnings, where I look for, the reaction number one. By far, hands down, the most important thing I look for during earnings season, the reaction to the actual earnings.

Second, the actual numbers. I want to compare, right now we're looking at first quarter numbers. We're in the second quarter of this year, but the companies that are reporting told us what happened in the first quarter. I'm going to compare first quarter of 2026 to the first quarter of 2025. Why? Because that's year over year. sales and then earn revenue i'm going to see the profit like earnings and sales revenue and earnings like

however you want to word it revenue and sales are the same thing so sales and earnings that's it very simple do they grow contract or expand grow or shrink this first quarter companies said they made a dollar last year was 50 cents well that's a big number that's up 100% that's great sales revenue see the growth quarter you know year over year i'm not going to look at the fourth quarter the quarter, that's not apples to apples. That's apples to oranges. Fourth quarter of one year versus the prior year. This year versus first quarter last year, so on and so forth. So it's year over year. It's consistent. Next thing I look for is guidance going forward. If the company gives guidance, what is their guidance? And then next thing I look for is earnings expectations. What

did the company do? What was the street expecting? Street expecting a dollar and they earned a dollar 50 and they raised guidance to $3? Great. Apple for years with lower guidance and the beat, lower guidance and beat. It was funny once I caught on to what they were doing, but I get it. It's managing expectations. Lower guidance beat, lower guidance beat over and over and over again. Okay. What's next? Most importantly, putting it all together, go back to the reaction to the news. Any news that comes out from company like headline, like Rehasting step down, Netflix's case, whatever. I'd look at some of that data, sure, but really when I zoom out As we go through earnings season, the big things I'm looking for is growth.

I'd love to see growth year over year, earnings and sales. I'd like to see the expectations, they beat expectations or mis-expectations. Guidance. Is it a beat and raised quarter? Those are my favorites. And the stock gaps up on the news to new highs. That's awesome. And then reaction.

Start with the reaction and with the reaction. That's it. That's what I'm focused on during earning season for each stock that comes out with earnings. And you don't have to go sit there and go crazy. I mean, if you want to go deep into the numbers, by all means, do whatever makes you happy. For me, it's just following the leaders. Most of the stocks don't matter. There's something in life in the difference between signals and noise.

Steve Jobs talked about this. Elon Musk talks about this. You know, Kevin O'Leary, all these super successful people. Most things in life is just noise. It doesn't matter. Signals move the needle. Noise doesn't. Signals versus noise.

Most, for me, I don't own thousands of stocks. So for me, it's noise. That doesn't matter. me. Stock that's at a 52-week low, I'm not touching it. So what it does with earnings, frankly, it's irrelevant to me. So my focus, I can't focus on everything all at once. It's not possible for me. Okay, so what am I focusing on? Leaders. Strength. Stocks at new highs, near new highs, building bases, breaking out of bases. Where the market's telling me there's a catalyst, the breakout's a catalyst, something has changed. Like right now in

the S&P and NASDAQ, went sideways for six months, and then all of a sudden breaks out. something changed. Now we're at all-time highs. Something changed when we broke out. That's why with market terminal, I had the first thing I look for is breakouts every day. Movers up on volume.

I want to see where the volume is. What stocks are moving up, what stocks are moving down. Any given day, click on the mouse in five seconds, boom, see all the movers on volume, all the movers on price, percent change.

That tells me a lot. I always like to say the market is speaking and then ask, my job is to listen. Ask, are you listening? that gives me a process I can follow day in, day out, day out, day in, day out, helps me focus on the signals, not the noise. It's easy to get caught up in the noise. The news, the drama, the this, or that, easy.

Focus on the signals, folks, that will give you some freedom like there's no tomorrow. It's unbelievable how that changed my life. In life, not just in the market, in life. most things that happen noise the signals move the needle really really and the process if you can focus on developing a healthy process way way way ahead of the game that's what the greatest successful people do in life they have a process that works and they follow it Michael Jordan would outwork everybody on the team Kobe Bryant same thing and then do it again tomorrow do it again tomorrow do it again tomorrow do it again tomorrow do it again tomorrow same thing and it

works. How do I get better? How do I improve? In markets, you can print out your trades and have two folders, winners and losers, post analysis. Look at the winning trades, what I do right, losing trades, not so much what I do wrong. What can I learn from these? There's lessons there so you don't keep repeating them. Learn from the mistakes. Mistakes are great teachers if you focus on them. Most people don't. They want to avoid them. I get it. I did that for years. It's better to face them. I want the truth. How can I improve? How can I improve? How can I improve? On that note, I believe we're out of time.

As always, I want to thank you very much for being here. We have a lot happening in the market. And as Marty Schwartz says, your biggest winners are in front of you. Thank you, everybody, and I'll speak to you again soon. This has been Investor's Edge with Gary Coltbaum on BizTalk. To listen to past episodes or to get in contact with Gary, go to GaryK.com. That's GaryK.com.